GBP/USD: The weight of evidence approachThere are always reasons not to take a trade.
You have to take a 'weight of evidence' approach - and you'll still often be wrong ;)
The idea: Trade GBP/USD short on a daily close below critical support. Looking for 2:1 RR
Reasons for:
Trend is lower (falling fractals / price below the 50 DMA)
Momentum is to the downside (MACD below zero)
If the break holds, then long term trend has turned to a downtrend, adding more force to the short term downtrend.
Reasons against:
Already had a big move lower
Longer term trend has been up - this maybe an exaggerated pullback.
The nice thing about trading, you don't have to stay wrong.
If this breakdown trade fails - it tells us the market has strength.
So then we can wait to trade a break above resistance or a fractal
Gbpusddaily
GBPUSD → Falling From Resistance! Should We Long or Short??GBPUSD touched the Resistance Zone and fell into the 30EMA ribbon, putting a slight pause on the fall. Will the price fall further or are we about to make contact with the Resistance Zone again?
How do we trade this? 🤔
I do not believe a short is reasonable here because we don't have enough bear strength on the chart. Wait for another rejection at Resistance or wait for the price to fall and find support to enter a long. There are two potential long entries, at the Support Zone around 1.21150 and above the current Resistance Zone around 1.29. Both zones need to establish support and show confirmation to justify a long entry. This includes a bull signal bar closing on or near its high followed by a strong bull candle closing on or near its high.
Until then, it's best to wait on the sidelines for a better opportunity!
💡 Trade Ideas 💡
Long Entry: 1.21150
🟥 Stop Loss: 1.18650
✅ Take Profit: 1.26150
⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:2
Long Entry: 1.29000
🟥 Stop Loss: 1.26450
✅ Take Profit: 1.34100
⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:2
🔑 Key Takeaways 🔑
1. Trading Range after Bull Run, Bias to Long.
2. Macro Trend is Bearish, Use Caution at Weekly 200EMA.
3. If in Short Position, hold until Support Zone.
4. If not in a Position, Wait until Support to Long.
5. RSI near 53.00 under Moving Average, Bias to Short.
⚠️ Risk Warning! ⚠️
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. You are solely responsible for your trades. Trade at your own risk!
Like 👍 and comment if you found this analysis useful!
GBPUSD → Will We Reject Here!? A Potential Drop to 1.21!GBPUSD has made contact with the resistance zone, as predicted from last week's analysis. We're now faced with a decision to short or wait on the sidelines for more price action.
How do we trade this? 🤔
It is not reasonable to short just yet because we do not have a sell signal! We're currently at the resistance level but without a confirmation of rejection, there is no justification to short without imposing too much risk. Enter after another sell signal, then 1:2 risk ratio down to the bottom of the trading range around 1.22000.
If the price breaks resistance, wait for it to confirm support on the resistance zone then look for a long entry off of a bull signal and confirmation bar.
💡 Trade Idea 💡
Short Entry: 1.26670
🟥 Stop Loss: 1.29000
✅ Take Profit: 1.22000
⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:2
🔑 Key Takeaways 🔑
1. Trading Range after Bull Run, Bias to Long.
2. Price Currently at Resistance Zone, Look for a Reversal Signal.
3. If Shorting, Watch the 200EMA for Support.
4. If Break Resistance, wait for New Support Confirmation.
5. RSI near 70.00, Bias to Short.
⚠️ Risk Warning! ⚠️
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. You are solely responsible for your trades. Trade at your own risk!
Like 👍 and comment if you found this analysis useful!
GBPUSD:31/10/2023: Daily Chart Analysis
You can see important support and resistance in the pound's daily chart.
As you can see the price couldn't make a lower low after touching the bearish order block and the price broke the previous high so we can expect a bullish movement for GBPUSD.
There is the bearish order block in front of the price and then a liquidity pool above the previous minor and major lows which can be defined as targets of this bullish move.
Please pay attention to the details on the chart.
💡Wait for the update!
🗓31/10/2023
🔎 DYOR
💌It is my honor to share your comments with me💌
GBPUSD:05/10/2023:🔴More fall for Pound🔴(Important caption)Well, as you can see, the market is totally bearish and we expect weakness of the pound against the American dollar.
I follow the price in 2 scenarios.
The first scenario (which I follow):
I expect that the supply zone can push the price lower at first to the liquidity pool, then to FVG and finally to sell-side liquidity.
Second scenario:
The previous High which is the High of the supply zone acts like a liquidity pool and the price moves higher to the bearish order block and then falls.
(I mentioned the second scenario just because it would be a perfect high-probability setup for a short position if it happens.)
💡Wait for the update!
🗓05/10/2023
🔎 DYOR
💌It is my honor to share your comments with me💌
GBPUSD : Current Situation & Technical , Fundamental View#GBPUSD
- Currently the MARKET SENTIMENT for GBPUSD is slightly UP SIDE. All MARKETS including STOCKS and STOCKS may be UP due to MARKET RISK ON in the past days. It affects the POUND greatly. GBPUSD may be slightly UP this week. Anyway, XXXUSD PAIRS are being BUYed slightly higher because the FED is a bit dovish.
- The price can definitely move up to the SUPPORT LEVEL below the GBPUSD. The reason for that is because there is a slightly UP BIAS in the MARKET for USD. But GBPUSD can be BUY until 1.2900 LEVEL. Before that, you can SELL at 1.2425 LEVEL. So go to GBPUSD SELL ENTRIES.
GBPUSD - Daily Trade Idea - 13-Feb-23GBPUSD (SHORT)- If all the resistance holds in place.
If we see the Resistance broken out then we could see the shift in the trend.
I marked the TP 1 (20 pips), TP 2 (50 pips) , TP 3 (100 pips) and EXIT (SL - 60 pips) on the chart.
(THIS IDEAS VALID NEXT 24 HOURS)
Please note this is only the Trade Idea base on S & R and not a signal, the market can react differently during the session due to News Impact and only enter if we have the final confirmation for entry.
- Rejection Candle Formation - Red Candle after the Green Candle.
- Stochastic - Overbought Area
- Timing of entry Prior / during UK / US Market Session.
GBPUSD - Daily Trade Idea - 10-Feb-23GBPUSD (SHORT)- If all the resistance holds in place.
If we see the Resistance broken out then we could see the shift in the trend.
I marked the TP 1 (20 pips), TP 2 (50 pips) , TP 3 (100 pips) and EXIT (SL - 60 pips) on the chart.
(THIS IDEAS VALID NEXT 24 HOURS)
Please note this is only the Trade Idea base on S & R and not a signal, the market can react differently during the session due to News Impact and only enter if we have the final confirmation for entry.
- Rejection Candle Formation - Red Candle after the Green Candle.
- Stochastic - Overbought Area
- Timing of entry Prior / during UK / US Market Session.
GBPUSD - Daily Trade Idea - 9-Feb-23GBPUSD (SHORT)- If all the resistance holds in place.
If we see the Resistance broken out then we could see the shift in the trend.
I marked the TP 1 (20 pips), TP 2 (50 pips) , TP 3 (100 pips) and EXIT (SL - 60 pips) on the chart.
(THIS IDEAS VALID NEXT 24 HOURS)
Please note this is only the Trade Idea base on S & R and not a signal, the market can react differently during the session due to News Impact and only enter if we have the final confirmation for entry.
- Rejection Candle Formation - Red Candle after the Green Candle.
- Stochastic - Overbought Area
- Timing of entry Prior / during UK / US Market Session.
GBPUSD - Daily Trade Idea - 8-Feb-23GBPUSD (LONG)- If all the support holds in place.
If we see the Support broken out then we could see the shift in the trend.
I marked the TP 1 (20 pips), TP 2 (50 pips) , TP 3 (100 pips) and EXIT (SL - 60 pips) on the chart.
(THIS IDEAS VALID NEXT 24 HOURS)
Please note this is only the Trade Idea base on S & R and not a signal, the market can react differently during the session due to News Impact and only enter if we have the final confirmation for entry.
- Rejection Candle Formation - Green Candle after the Red Candle.
- Stochastic - Oversold Area
- Timing of entry Prior / during UK / US Market Session.
GBPUSD - Daily Trade Idea - 7-Feb-23GBPUSD (SHORT)- If all the resistance holds in place.
If we see the Resistance broken out then we could see the shift in the trend.
I marked the TP 1 (20 pips), TP 2 (50 pips) , TP 3 (100 pips) and EXIT (SL - 60 pips) on the chart.
(THIS IDEAS VALID NEXT 24 HOURS)
Please note this is only the Trade Idea base on S & R and not a signal, the market can react differently during the session due to News Impact and only enter if we have the final confirmation for entry.
- Rejection Candle Formation - Red Candle after the Green Candle.
- Stochastic - Overbought Area
- Timing of entry Prior / during UK / US Market Session.
GBPUSD : Current Situation & Technical , Fundamental View#GBPUSD
- Currently the MARKET SENTIMENT for GBPUSD is slightly UP SIDE. All MARKETS including STOCKS and STOCKS may be UP due to MARKET RISK ON in the past days. It affects the POUND greatly. GBPUSD may be slightly UP this week. Anyway, XXXUSD PAIRS are being BUYed slightly higher because the FED is a bit dovish.
- The price can definitely move up to the SUPPORT LEVEL below the GBPUSD. The reason for that is because there is a slightly UP BIAS in the MARKET for USD. But GBPUSD can be BUY until 1.2700 LEVEL. Before that, you can SELL at 1.1837 LEVEL. So go for GBPUSD LONG ENTRIES.
GBPUSD - Daily Trade Idea - 6-Feb-23GBPUSD (SHORT)- If all the resistance holds in place.
If we see the Resistance broken out then we could see the shift in the trend.
I marked the TP 1 (20 pips), TP 2 (50 pips) , TP 3 (100 pips) and EXIT (SL - 60 pips) on the chart.
(THIS IDEAS VALID NEXT 24 HOURS)
Please note this is only the Trade Idea base on S & R and not a signal, the market can react differently during the session due to News Impact and only enter if we have the final confirmation for entry.
- Rejection Candle Formation - Red Candle after the Green Candle.
- Stochastic - Overbought Area
- Timing of entry Prior / during UK / US Market Session.
GBPUSD - Daily Trade Idea - 2-Feb-23GBPUSD (LONG)- If all the support holds in place.
If we see the Support broken out then we could see the shift in the trend.
I marked the TP 1 (20 pips), TP 2 (50 pips) , TP 3 (100 pips) and EXIT (SL - 60 pips) on the chart.
(THIS IDEAS VALID NEXT 24 HOURS)
Please note this is only the Trade Idea base on S & R and not a signal, the market can react differently during the session due to News Impact and only enter if we have the final confirmation for entry.
- Rejection Candle Formation - Green Candle after the Red Candle.
- Stochastic - Oversold Area
- Timing of entry Prior / during UK / US Market Session.
GBPUSD - Daily Trade Idea - 1-Feb-23GBPUSD (SHORT)- If all the resistance holds in place.
If we see the Resistance broken out then we could see the shift in the trend.
I marked the TP 1 (20 pips), TP 2 (50 pips) , TP 3 (100 pips) and EXIT (SL - 60 pips) on the chart.
(THIS IDEAS VALID NEXT 24 HOURS)
Please note this is only the Trade Idea base on S & R and not a signal, the market can react differently during the session due to News Impact and only enter if we have the final confirmation for entry.
- Rejection Candle Formation - Red Candle after the Green Candle.
- Stochastic - Overbought Area
- Timing of entry Prior / during UK / US Market Session.
GBPUSD - Daily Trade Idea - 30-Jan-23GBPUSD (LONG)- If all the support holds in place.
If we see the Support broken out then we could see the shift in the trend.
I marked the TP 1 (20 pips), TP 2 (50 pips) , TP 3 (100 pips) and EXIT (SL - 60 pips) on the chart.
(THIS IDEAS VALID NEXT 24 HOURS)
Please note this is only the Trade Idea base on S & R and not a signal, the market can react differently during the session due to News Impact and only enter if we have the final confirmation for entry.
- Rejection Candle Formation - Green Candle after the Red Candle.
- Stochastic - Oversold Area
- Timing of entry Prior / during UK / US Market Session.
GBPUSD - Daily Trade Idea - 25-Jan-23GBPUSD (LONG)- If all the support holds in place.
If we see the Support broken out then we could see the shift in the trend.
I marked the TP 1 (20 pips), TP 2 (50 pips) , TP 3 (100 pips) and EXIT (SL - 60 pips) on the chart.
(THIS IDEAS VALID NEXT 24 HOURS)
Please note this is only the Trade Idea base on S & R and not a signal, the market can react differently during the session due to News Impact and only enter if we have the final confirmation for entry.
- Rejection Candle Formation - Green Candle after the Red Candle.
- Stochastic - Oversold Area
- Timing of entry Prior / during UK / US Market Session.
GBPUSD - Daily Trade Idea - 23-Jan-23GBPUSD (LONG)- If all the support holds in place.
If we see the Support broken out then we could see the shift in the trend.
I marked the TP 1 (20 pips), TP 2 (50 pips) , TP 3 (100 pips) and EXIT (SL - 60 pips) on the chart.
(THIS IDEAS VALID NEXT 24 HOURS)
Please note this is only the Trade Idea base on S & R and not a signal, the market can react differently during the session due to News Impact and only enter if we have the final confirmation for entry.
- Rejection Candle Formation - Green Candle after the Red Candle.
- Stochastic - Oversold Area
- Timing of entry Prior / during UK / US Market Session.
GBPUSD - Daily Trade Idea - 20-Jan-23GBPUSD (LONG)- If all the support holds in place.
If we see the Support broken out then we could see the shift in the trend.
I marked the TP 1 (20 pips), TP 2 (50 pips) , TP 3 (100 pips) and EXIT (SL - 60 pips) on the chart.
(THIS IDEAS VALID NEXT 24 HOURS)
Please note this is only the Trade Idea base on S & R and not a signal, the market can react differently during the session due to News Impact and only enter if we have the final confirmation for entry.
- Rejection Candle Formation - Green Candle after the Red Candle.
- Stochastic - Oversold Area
- Timing of entry Prior / during UK / US Market Session.