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Gbpusdidea

GBPUSD Sell Idea. Detailed Technical Analysis.Technical Overview The GBP/USD pair is showing a bullish trend as I draw in the chart, but it could face a bearish backlash at the 1st resistance at 1.31400, a level that has resisted multiple swings in the past. If that happens, the price could fall to the 1st support at 1.30000. This level is a pullback support, meaning it could attract some buyers. Further down, the 2nd support at 1.2847 is another pullback support, indicating more possible buying interest. On the other hand, if the price rises, it could meet selling pressure at the 2nd resistance at 1.32800, a level that overlaps with previous resistances, which could trigger a price reversal. Fundamental point of View The US inflation rate was expected to drop from 4% to 3%, but no one thought it would happen so soon. Everyone was betting on a more gradual decline, maybe to 3.1%. This dampened the appetite for the US dollar. But the reality was even more surprising, as inflation fell to 3.0%. This convinced everyone that the Federal Reserve would only raise the interest rate one more time. Some even speculated that the Fed might pause its policy tightening. It’s possible that by the end of the year, the interest rate in the US will start to go down. And the dollar immediately lost value, even though it was already quite cheap. So, it’s time to think about a bounce or a minor correction. But there needs to be a good reason for that. Officially, this role was assigned to the UK industrial production report. UK’s industrial production kept shrinking as it dropped 2.3% in May. This was slightly better than the predicted 2.4%. But now investors are more worried about the interest rate gap. So, further shrinkage in industrial production only slowed down the dollar’s weakness a little bit. But this could lead to a corrective movement, maybe with some delay. So, a rebound seems more likely. But before that, the market will stay calm for a while. The UK unemployment data did not bother the traders this week. Neither did the GDP and industrial production data yesterday. The US inflation report is surely more relevant, but the pair has been on the rise for three days, ignoring everything else. The GDP shrank by 0.1% in May, less than the expected -0.2-0.3%. The industrial production slipped by 0.6%, despite more hopeful forecasts. So, both reports were disappointing, but the pound kept climbing since the morning. Such a climb can only end when the bullish traders are happy and start taking profits. The bulls are gaining momentum, but this could backfire on them. The faster the move, the sooner it will end and the harder the retracement. The highs and lows are still rising. According to my point of view a strong reversal signal is expected soon and a break below the last trend line will favor the US dollar. Conclusion My advice to traders is to trade GBPUSD only at the key levels and wait for the trend lines to break. Also keep an eye on the fundamentals as I expect GBP to drop in September. Another strategy to go short is to wait for the 50EMA and 200SMA crossover.
Short
by AhsanTufail
GBPUSD Sell Key Levels Updated. A Detailed Technical Analysis. Technical Overview The GBP/USD pair is showing a bullish trend as I draw in the chart, but it could face a bearish backlash at the 1st resistance at 1.31400, a level that has resisted multiple swings in the past. If that happens, the price could fall to the 1st support at 1.30000. This level is a pullback support, meaning it could attract some buyers. Further down, the 2nd support at 1.2847 is another pullback support, indicating more possible buying interest. On the other hand, if the price rises, it could meet selling pressure at the 2nd resistance at 1.32800, a level that overlaps with previous resistances, which could trigger a price reversal. Fundamental point of View The US inflation rate was expected to drop from 4% to 3%, but no one thought it would happen so soon. Everyone was betting on a more gradual decline, maybe to 3.1%. This dampened the appetite for the US dollar. But the reality was even more surprising, as inflation fell to 3.0%. This convinced everyone that the Federal Reserve would only raise the interest rate one more time. Some even speculated that the Fed might pause its policy tightening. It’s possible that by the end of the year, the interest rate in the US will start to go down. And the dollar immediately lost value, even though it was already quite cheap. So, it’s time to think about a bounce or a minor correction. But there needs to be a good reason for that. Officially, this role was assigned to the UK industrial production report. UK’s industrial production kept shrinking as it dropped 2.3% in May. This was slightly better than the predicted 2.4%. But now investors are more worried about the interest rate gap. So, further shrinkage in industrial production only slowed down the dollar’s weakness a little bit. But this could lead to a corrective movement, maybe with some delay. So, a rebound seems more likely. But before that, the market will stay calm for a while. The UK unemployment data did not bother the traders this week. Neither did the GDP and industrial production data yesterday. The US inflation report is surely more relevant, but the pair has been on the rise for three days, ignoring everything else. The GDP shrank by 0.1% in May, less than the expected -0.2-0.3%. The industrial production slipped by 0.6%, despite more hopeful forecasts. So, both reports were disappointing, but the pound kept climbing since the morning. Such a climb can only end when the bullish traders are happy and start taking profits. The bulls are gaining momentum, but this could backfire on them. The faster the move, the sooner it will end and the harder the retracement. The highs and lows are still rising. According to my point of view a strong reversal signal is expected soon and a break below the last trend line will favor the US dollar. Conclusion My advice to traders is to trade GBPUSD only at the key levels and wait for the trend lines to break. Also keep an eye on the fundamentals as I expect GBP to drop in September. Another strategy to go short is to wait for the 50EMA and 200SMA crossover.
Short
by AhsanTufail
GBPUSD - daily outlookIn my analysis of GBPUSD, I have identified a bullish outlook with a potential target at 1.29078 & 1.29785 GBPUSD has been exhibiting a series of higher highs and higher lows, indicating upward momentum. The recent price action suggests a bullish bias, with the pair gaining strength against the US dollar. Remember to set appropriate stop-loss orders and manage your risk effectively. The forex market can be volatile, and it's crucial to adapt your strategy if market conditions change.
Long
by saintmaximuz
GBPUSD Trade SETUP H4GBP/USD closed at the 1.2716 level. Based on my limited knowledge, the support area for GBP/USD is at 1.2700. If it breaks, the market may move towards the next support area at 1.2600. Similarly, the resistance area for GBP/USD is at the 1.2775 level. If it breaks, GBP/USD may reach 1.2850. Keep an eye on these levels. If a candle rejects the resistance area, you can sell and set the take profit at the support level. A stop loss of 35 pips is recommended. I hope your trades turn out to be profitable. Disclaimer: The information provided is for educational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading involves risks, and decisions should be made based on personal judgment and analysis.
by ShaniTradingHub
Resistance at 1.267: Key Level to Watch After BoE Rate Decision The UK continues to struggle with high inflation, as demonstrated once again this morning when headline inflation exceeded expectations at 8.7%, surpassing the projected 8.4%. Core inflation also outperformed, registering a 7.1% figure compared to the expected 6.8%. This divergence emphasizes the contrast between the UK and its counterparts in the US and Europe. Tomorrow, the Bank of England is set to announce its interest rate decision, and there are expectations of further tightening from the central bank. Given the elevated level of inflation, the bank may have little choice but to maintain a hawkish stance. Last week, the GBPUSD initially tested the support level at the previous resistance of 1.250. However, that brief decline was followed by four consecutive days of significant gains, ultimately reaching a new high for the year. There was a temporary resistance encountered at a critical level of 1.267. Following tomorrow's rate decision, this level could potentially act as a support area, particularly considering the slight pullback observed in recent days and the elevated RSI (Relative Strength Index). On the other side of the trade, we have Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's comments on the central bank's ongoing battle against inflation falling short of the market's more hawkish expectations. During his testimony to lawmakers, Powell acknowledged that inflation remains significantly above the Fed's target and indicated that raising rates could still be a sensible course of action, albeit at a more moderate pace. Traders particularly took note of the term "moderate," which Powell used to qualify the potential rate increases. We still have one more day of testimony from Powell.
by BlackBull_Markets