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Gbpusdsetup

GBPUSD: Asian forex bears strengthen as US interest rate cut hop In recent developments, bearish bets on several emerging Asian currencies have increased as traders readjust their expectations for an early interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve. This change has prompted investors to seek refuge in the US dollar. A reassessment of the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy trajectory has led to a stronger USD, derailing most Asian currencies since the start of the year. The odds of the Fed lowering interest rates in March have dropped significantly to 41.5%, down sharply from more than 75% just a month earlier, according to NASDAQ:CME's FedWatch Tool. This change in sentiment comes ahead of the expected initial estimate for fourth-quarter U.S. GDP, which is expected to show a 2% annual growth rate.
Short
by Chart_MasterPro
2
GBPUSD: Sterling speculators are more focused on inflation than Traders in the pound market are betting on continued inflation due to a slowdown in retail sales as the Bank of England nears its next interest rate decision. The pound has recently strengthened against the euro for four consecutive weeks, and has strengthened against all G10 currencies this year except for the stronger US dollar. Investors have increased their bullish bets on the pound for the third consecutive week. This is reflected in an increase in net long positions in the pound, suggesting that the pound is likely to appreciate against the dollar. Net long positions increased by nearly $800 million, or 48%, to $2.24 billion, the biggest selloff in four months. This is in contrast to about $2.166 billion in short positions held by speculators just two months ago. The latest economic data paints a mixed picture. Wage growth slowed, inflation rose to a surprising 4.0% in December from 3.9% the previous month, and retail sales fell sharply. These factors are contributing to expectations that the BoE may be slower to cut interest rates than the Fed or the European Central Bank (ECB). Market expectations suggest there is a roughly 50% chance that the Bank of England will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in May, with a full rate cut expected in August. By contrast, traders expect the ECB to start cutting rates as early as April, and there is almost a 50% chance that the U.S. will cut rates in March. Lee Hardman, senior currency analyst at MUFG, said the BoE needed evidence that inflation risks were easing to give it confidence to start cutting interest rates to support UK growth. Weak retail sales have slightly reduced the attractiveness of the pound, but it remains the second-best performing G10 currency at the start of the year. Compared to other currencies, the pound has appreciated 4.7% against the Japanese yen and 3% against the Australian dollar so far this year. It also rose 2.8% against the Swiss franc, and Nomura analysts expect it to rise another 3%.
Short
by Chart_MasterPro
GBPUSD Shorts from 1.27400 down towards 1.26200This week's analysis for GBPUSD is promising. I'm currently anticipating a slight upward movement to reach the nearby Asian high and mitigate the supply zone at a deeper level. Alternatively, if this doesn't happen, I'm prepared for a potential reaction from the 4-hour supply zone above. This particular supply level has triggered a change of character (CHOCH) to the downside and aligns with the 0.78 Fibonacci range. Since the price is in proximity, I'll be patiently waiting for a redistribution within the zone. Subsequently, my plan involves executing sell orders to guide the price down, targeting the trendline and addressing the 3-hour demand zone situated beneath it. Confluences for GBPUSD sells are as follows: - Overall trend of the market is bearish on the higher time frame - Price has caused a new CHOCH to the downside. - New supply zone has emerged that caused this move which aligns with 0.78 fib range. - Trendline liquidity below to target as well as a 3hr demand zone that needs mitigating. - Bullish momentum is slowly dying down and I can see price reversing soon. P.S. While this is my current perspective, I acknowledge the possibility of a temporary bullish scenario due to substantial liquidity to the upside. Therefore, I wouldn't be surprised if the price surpasses my identified supply level and reaches the extreme one ontop at the 10hr LET'S HAVE A GREAT WEEK AHEAD TRADERS AND LET'S CATCH THESE PIPS!
Short
by Hassan_fx
1
GBPUSD I Bearish flag and potential downside Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments! ** GBPUSD Analysis - Listen to video! We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met. Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future. Thanks for your continued support!
Short
by BKTradingAcademy
6
GBPUSD SELL | Day Trading AnalysisHello Traders, here is the full analysis. Watch strong action at the current levels for SELL . GOOD LUCK! Great SELL opportunity GBPUSD I still did my best and this is the most likely count for me at the moment. Support the idea with like and follow my profile TO SEE MORE. Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 🤝 Patience is the If You Have Any Question, Feel Free To Ask 🤗 Just follow chart with idea and analysis and when you are ready come in THE GROVE | VIP GROUP, earn more and safe, wait for the signal at the right moment and make money with us💰
Short
by TheGrove
1
GBPUSD: The dollar hit a one-month high amid interest rate cut sThe US dollar rose to a one-month high on Wednesday on shifting market expectations for interest rate cuts and weak economic data from China. The dollar index, which measures the dollar's value against a basket of currencies, rose to 103.58, its highest since December 13th. This increase follows Tuesday's 0.67% rise. The dollar's rise was fueled in part by comments from U.S. Federal Reserve official Christopher Waller. He noted that the U.S. is close to the Fed's 2% inflation target, but advised against cutting rates early until he is confident that the decline in inflation is sustainable. Following Waller's comments, the probability of a rate cut in March, as measured by CME's FedWatch tool, fell from 75% to about 60%. At the same time, yields on U.S. government bonds rose. In contrast to other currencies, the pound rose 0.1% against the dollar to $1.2646, supported by rising UK inflation data. This has fueled expectations that the Bank of England may cut interest rates more slowly than other central banks.
Short
by Chart_MasterPro
The Potential Strong Bull on the Horizon...In terms of trading analysis, I am a strong advocate for taking a long-term approach and striving to gain the best possible insight into where the market may be heading in the coming quarters (and in some cases even further ahead) . Identifying the overall direction of the market is a critical factor not just in positioning oneself for high-percentage gains but also in increasing profits while reducing trade frequency. I have already shared my EUR/USD outlook in a previous video, but I would also like to share my ideas here regarding both the GBP/USD and AUD/USD pairs. While my main focus is typically on the EUR/USD, I do occasionally explore other pairs if there are promising opportunities. The GBP/USD setup is a large falling wedge which typically calls for a move to the upside. Coupled with a up trending MACD which further gives this further strength of a possible bullish move. The AUD/USD setup is a large falling Descending triangle which typically calls for a move to the upside. Coupled with a up trending MACD which gives this further strength of a possible bullish move. Projected target on the GBP/USD is 1.4000. Projected target on the AUD/USD is 0.7700 (possibly extended to 0.8000..
Long
by InternalTraderNYC
GBPUSD Trade IdeaThe GBPUSD daily chart suggests a confirmed downside break of market structure. While a healthy retracement is ongoing, the 50-61.8% Fibonacci retracement zone offers a possible shorting opportunity if price action confirms on a lower timeframe (e.g., 15m / 5m). Targets lie at the current candle low and prior daily lows (refer to snapshot). Please note: This is an informative analysis, not a trade recommendation. Conduct your own due diligence and risk management before taking any trading decisions.
Short
by tradingwithanthony
GBPUSD: Dollar slides lower after CPI data; Sterling is supporteThe dollar steadied in early European trade on Friday as investors focused on mixed U.S. consumer inflation data and the potential impact of the FBI's interest rate cut. Future Federal Reserve System. As of 4:25 p.m. ET (9:25 p.m. Japan time), the dollar index against a basket of six other currencies was trading steady at 102.022, down from Thursday's high of 102.76 (a five-month low). Although it has fallen from a certain point of 100.61, it is still above it. U.S. consumer prices rose 0.3% in December, according to data released Thursday. The annual rate of increase was 3.4%, exceeding expectations of 0.2% and 3.2% increases, respectively. increase. However, the dollar received little support from this, as the "core" CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, fell again, suggesting underlying inflation remained subdued. Federal Reserve officials have sought to downplay the possibility of early rate cuts, with Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester saying Thursday that the latest CPI numbers indicate it may be too early for the central bank to cut rates. Major interest rate cuts in March. But most traders still expect the Fed to start cutting rates as early as March. "A rate cut in March is still priced in by more than 60%, and we still see near-term vulnerability in risk assets from this move," ING analysts said in a note. The new decision is too restrictive. ” All eyes are now on the US producer price index, which will be released in late trading, with the index expected to rise 0.1% in December, bringing the annual rate of increase to just 1.3%. In Europe, the pound/dollar pair rose 0.1% to 1.2775 after data released on Friday showed the British economy grew slightly more than expected in November. The country's GDP rose 0.3% this month, beating expectations for a 0.2% increase.
Long
by Chart_MasterPro
GBPUSD → Two Sell Signal Bars! Time to Short? Let's Answer.GBPUSD gave us more upward price action to finish last week and thus far has failed to break the neckline. The Weekly chart shows two wicks over the 200EMA, but not a clean break. Should we short here? How do we trade this?  🤔 We do not yet have the justification to short for several reasons. Most important, we're lacking a confirmation bar below the 200EMA. We have the two sell bars, but notice the last Daily candle from last week, it's a strong buy bar near a resistance line. A buy bar at a resistance line is not a buy signal because the context doesn't support a buy here. Buy bars this late in the game are often indicative of a potential reversal. The bulls tried to buy after a quick dip in price but failed to close above the 200EMA. This is a sign of potential weakness, key word: *potential*. That weakness needs to be confirmed with a strong bear bar closing on or near its low. Such a dip will likely bring us to the 30EMA where I would expect some support. My preference would be to wait for that price action to either close below the 30EMA, or come back up to the Resistance Zone (as depicted) and fail again to confirm the short entry. Until then, it's best to wait on the sidelines for the required price action. 💡  Trade Idea  💡 Short Entry: $2,225 🟥 Stop Loss: $2,510 ✅ Take Profit: $1,940 ⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:1 🔑  Key Takeaways  🔑 1. Two Sell Signals at Resistance Zone 2. Failed to break 200EMA 3. Watch for Bear Close Below 200EMA and a re-test of Resistance Zone. 4. Look for Strong Bear Signal at Resistance to Short. 5. RSI near 58.00 above Moving Average, Contradicts Short Bias. 💰  Trading Tip  💰 A buy bar in isolation (bull candle with a large wick on the bottom) is a bullish bar. But bars in isolation are irrelevant when it comes to addressing a chart. Context is everything and when a buy bar appears near a Resistance Zone at what is possibly the end of a trend, it should not be considered a buy signal, but potentially a sign of weakness before the bears take over. ⚠️  Risk Warning!  ⚠️ Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. You are solely responsible for your trades. Trade at your own risk! Like 👍 and comment if you found this analysis useful!
Short
by TraderEngineering
GBPUSD Shorts from 1.28000 down towards demand This pair continues to grab my attention, particularly as it approaches my 10-hour supply zone. I anticipate a redistribution and subsequent sell-off targeting the equal lows. It's important to note that this is a counter-trend trade aimed at capturing a temporary downward movement to a more favourable demand. Given the substantial liquidity at the newly identified 4-hourly demand zone, my strategy involves patiently waiting for the equal lows to be swept, filling the imbalance, and eventually triggering a reaction off the prominent 11-hour demand zone. However, I will assess price behaviour within the 4-hour zone, considering it as the closest opportunity for potential buys. Confluences for GBPUSD Sells are as follows: - Price has swept liquidity to the upside and now price is slowing down - Bullish pressure is now getting exhausted as you can see from the candlesticks. - Price has filled in an imbalance just below our 10-hour supply zone. - There is lots of liquidity to the downside that needs to get taken like equal lows. - Price is due for a pullback to enter a level of demand if price wants to keep pushing higher. - Overall on the higher time frame the market is bearish and I do see the dollar rising just a little more. P.S. As price steadily advances, this serves as additional confirmation that it is likely to react off the nearby supply zone. Consequently, I anticipate a Wyckoff distribution to unfold. Have a great week ahead traders!
Short
by Hassan_fx