GBPUSD: The dollar's grip on FX will weaken in 2024, poll showsThe US dollar's influence on the foreign exchange market is likely to weaken in 2024, especially in the second half of the year, according to a study by Currency Strategists. The survey, which included the views of 71 analysts, found that expected U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts next year could lead to a weaker dollar against G-10 currencies. other.
The dollar, which has been a mainstay in foreign exchange markets since mid-2021, showed signs of weakness last week following dovish comments from some US Federal Reserve officials. This change in tone caused the dollar index to fall 3.0% in November, its biggest monthly decline in a year. The strength of the US economy is the main reason for the dollar's strength, with last quarter's annualized growth of 5.2%, the highest level since the final quarter of 2021. But analysts expect the dollar's weakening trend to continue next year, with most of the decline occurring by the end of 2024.
Lee Hardman, senior currency strategist at MUFG, commented on the outlook: Challenges in global economic growth outside the United States are reasons to be cautious in predicting an immediate decline in the dollar.
The dollar is expected to maintain some resilience in the first half of 2024, but strategists cannot agree on the factors that will determine its performance. Among the analysts, 20 cited interest rate differentials as potential factors, 17 cited economic indicators, seven cited demand for safe assets, and three cited other reasons.
Gbpusdshort
GBPUSD SELL ANALYSISFX:GBPUSD
Price broke below 1.26229 daily support breaking bullish structure. Price made a pullback and retested as resistance around the resistance area of interest with a bearish engulfing candlestick being my entry confirmation. Take note, today is a fundamental day thus low risk should be used to avoid big losses in case price goes against my bearish bias because of fundamentals today
GBPUSD → Will We Reject Here!? A Potential Drop to 1.21!GBPUSD has made contact with the resistance zone, as predicted from last week's analysis. We're now faced with a decision to short or wait on the sidelines for more price action.
How do we trade this? 🤔
It is not reasonable to short just yet because we do not have a sell signal! We're currently at the resistance level but without a confirmation of rejection, there is no justification to short without imposing too much risk. Enter after another sell signal, then 1:2 risk ratio down to the bottom of the trading range around 1.22000.
If the price breaks resistance, wait for it to confirm support on the resistance zone then look for a long entry off of a bull signal and confirmation bar.
💡 Trade Idea 💡
Short Entry: 1.26670
🟥 Stop Loss: 1.29000
✅ Take Profit: 1.22000
⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:2
🔑 Key Takeaways 🔑
1. Trading Range after Bull Run, Bias to Long.
2. Price Currently at Resistance Zone, Look for a Reversal Signal.
3. If Shorting, Watch the 200EMA for Support.
4. If Break Resistance, wait for New Support Confirmation.
5. RSI near 70.00, Bias to Short.
⚠️ Risk Warning! ⚠️
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. You are solely responsible for your trades. Trade at your own risk!
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GBPUSD - W1\D1GBPUSD
W1 - The price has corrected by more than 50% from the impulse of the 1st wave, which may indicate the potential beginning of the 3rd wave, globally the target is level 161 1.13503.
D1 - The price has formed a 3-wave structure and broken through the trend line; sales can be considered with global goals for W1. For D1 the global levels will be 1.20302
What can you expect?
You can consider entering from the level of ~1.26006 with further movement to the target 1.23871. Cancellation of the idea, so as not to take increased risk on the idea, levels beyond the end of the 1st wave - 1.27327.
Long
Targets 1.25192 - 1.24674 - 1.23871 - 1.20302
💡 GBPUSD: Reversal signal appearsThe price adjusted down sharply in the last session after the mentioned Doji signal, the downward force is quite strong and GBPUSD is only gradually escaping the overbought state, this is the time we can sell lightly, waiting for the price. recover then sell back. Avoid selling below
Reference strategy and analysis of the GBPUSD market today. Idea of the day: sell soup
. GBPUSD price lost its peak above 1.27 after breaking above 1.2674 yesterday. This morning price is retesting the breakout level at 1.2674. The price will likely retest the level around 1.27 and will likely fall again due to the resilience of the US dollar.
. In the first half of this year, the ADX index has risen and shown strong momentum, and the price may have the momentum to retest 1.27. However, 1.2650 remains a strong resistance level and can therefore be sold.
Reference ACE strategy:
Sell GBPUSD 1.2660 SL 50 TP 50 100PIP
Sales limit GBPUSD 1.27 SL 50 TP 50 100PIP
Finally Good Reversal Pattern On GBP/USD , Short Now ? This Is An Educational + Analytic Content That Will Teach Why And How To Enter A Trade
Make Sure You Watch The Price Action Closely In Each Analysis As This Is A Very Important Part Of Our Method
Disclaimer : This Analysis Can Change At Anytime Without Notice And It Is Only For The Purpose Of Assisting Traders To Make Independent Investments Decisions.
GBPUSD tends to decrease when it encounters resistanceThe British pound has been heavily influenced but the US dollar of recent with investors becoming less hawkish on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate path. Recent weaker US economic data has prompted such an outlook alongside some dovish Fed commentary. During yesterday’s US trading session, the 2nd estimate on US GDP surprised to the upside but the market remained firm on it’s bearish USD viewpoint after the Fed Beige book revealed slowing economic growth and softening prices that will likely extend through to 2024.
Money markets have since priced in 115bps of cumulative rate cuts by the Fed by December 2024. The focal point for the week has always been the upcoming core PCE price index (see economic calendar below) which is the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation. Should actual data fall in line with forecasts, the pound may well find additional support. Jobless claims will also be scrutinized to see whether or not recent labor market weakness continues or was just a blip in what has been a robust part of the US economy.
GBPUSD I Pullback and more potential growthWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
** GBPUSD Analysis - Listen to video!
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The GBP/USD pair is trending up in the short termThe GBP/USD currency pair is showing an uptrend in the short term. If the exchange rate remains above 1.2672, investors could take profits by going long near 1.2738 and 1.2781. Conversely, if the exchange rate falls below he 1.2672, the investor should go "short" and expect to take profit at 1.2629 and he should book profits at 1.2564.
💡 GBPUSD: Predicted November 27➡️ GBPUSD showed a significant price increase in the last session and is currently nearing the target resistance level of 1.265, as per the double bottom model. It is advisable to consider taking profits on previous buying positions. The upcoming focus should be on monitoring the price action around this resistance level, as the signals observed here will likely indicate the next direction of the price.
💡 GBPUSD: Wait to sell at the reversal signal➡️ GBPUSD has approached the weekly resistance zone and we see the price weakening in momentum. That means the price forms a higher peak, but it is clear that neither the candlestick nor the distance to create the peak is strong.
However, this is not a reversal signal. If we want a reversal trade from this zone, we need more confirmation.
✔️ So with this currency pair, you should first monitor the price action around the current area. If the price forms a strong reversal signal, you can consider selling.
In case the price continues to rise and breaks the current resistance, we will continue to buy.
GBPUSD - Potential retracement ✅Hello traders!
‼️ This is my perspective on GBPUSD.
Technical analysis: Here we are in a bullish market structure from daily perspective, so I am looking for longs. I expect price to make a retracement to fill the imbalance lower and then to reject from bullish order block + institutional big figure 1.23000.
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GBPUSD: The pound-to-dollar exchange rate fell 0.08% at 1.2594Late last week, the dollar depreciated versus a basket of currencies on reports of strong U.S. business performance in November; however, private sector employment decreased due to forecasts of an impending economic slowdown. the final quarter.
Prior to this, the US Composite PMI Output Index was recorded on Friday by Michael Brown, a market analyst at Trader S&P Global.
In particular, the number remained unchanged at 50.7 this month as a result of a minor increase in activity in the service sector offsetting a decrease in output. An increase in the private sector is indicated by a rating above 50. Businesses are laying off employees as a result of the weak order growth; the employment index in the poll dropped from 51.3 in October to 49.7 in June 2020, the first loss since then.
Downtrend when meeting resistance of GBPUSDSterling was last 0.06% lower at $1.2598, but hovered near Friday's over two-month peak of $1.2615, on data last week showing that British companies unexpectedly reported a marginal return to growth in November after three months of contraction.
"That indicates the resilience of the UK economy despite the very aggressive monetary policy tightening from the Bank of England," said Carol Kong, a currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA). "But we still expect the UK economy to weaken and experience a short-lived recession."
The pound was on track for a roughly 3.7% gain for the month, its largest monthly gain in a year, aided by a falling U.S. dollar.
💡 GBPUSD: Predicted November 23➡️ The market experienced a steep decline in the initial half of the session, followed by a resurgence of buying activity that resulted in long candle shadows below. This indicates that sellers did not exert strong dominance. The overall situation has remained relatively unchanged since the last session. Our expectation is for the price to continue its upward movement, approaching the target set by the double bottom pattern. It is advisable to steadfastly maintain your existing long positions.
GBPUSD Imminent sells towards 1.225500GBPUSD Is still bullish due to the continuous break of structures to the upside however, It has tapped into a nice supply which I expect to cause a correction back down to a demand level at 1.225500. This is an opportunity I will be looking to take soon as market opens therefore, I will be waiting for a CHOCH to validate my Wyckoff distrubution and I will be waiting for a sweep of the asian high before I consider imminent sell positions.
As price is currently In a clean 15hr supply that has caused a BOS to the downside, I would be expecting price to have some sort of reaction, hence why I am anticipating a pull back so we can end up continuing our bullish bias upwards.
My confluences for GBPUSD shorts are as follows:
- Price tapped into 15hr supply zone that broke structure to the downside.
- Overall trend of the market on the higher time Frame like (monthly) is still bearish.
- Price distributing currently pending a CHOCH to validate our sell position bias.
- Price requires a pullback of some sort due to the recent impulsive moves to the upside.
- For price to continue in its bullish trend it will need to form a correction and tap in demand.
- Price has swept lots of liquidity to the upside, enough to move the markets back down.
P.S. Even though price has entered a supply, this is just a short term trade idea in order to sell down towards a demand. This is where we will be looking to buy the market back up again in order to catch a pro trend trade. Hope you guys found this post insightful, HAPPY TRADING!
GBPUSD → Reverse to the Downside This Week!? Or Blast Upward?GBPUSD is flirting with the resistance zone, leaving the bulls wondering if another fall in this trading range is upon us this week. But is the dollar strong enough to take the British Pound into the ground?
How do we trade this?
The price is currently in a trading range between 1.20000 and 1.28000 and we're getting close to the resistance zone where the Weekly 200EMA resides. If you're not already in a trade, it's worth waiting to see what happens at the resistance zone. A bear signal bar closing on or near its low below the resistance line is a good indicator that the price will fail to rise above again and would be a reasonable short. Stop loss above the resistance zone top and take profit just above the Support Zone around 1.21000.
If the price finds its way above the resistance lines and closes a bull candle on or near its high, it would be reasonable to long with a protective stop just below the resistance zone. Target prices as high as 1.33000 and 1.40000.
Key Takeaways
1. Trading Range after Bull Run, Bias to Long.
2. Near the Resistance Zone, Look for a Reversal Signal.
3. If Shorting, Watch the 200EMA for Support.
4. The Dollar Index may fall more, wait for the bottom.
5. RSI near 70.00, Bias to Short.
You are solely responsible for your trades, trade at your own risk!
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EURUSD I Pullback and more potential growthWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
** EURUSD Analysis - Listen to video!
We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met.
Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future.
Thanks for your continued support!