Crunch Time: Will Sellers Break the Barrier? GBPUSD in Focus Traders are heavily bullish on the British pound, with net long positions exceeding a whopping $4.7 billion as of July 11, the highest level since mid-2014. Traders are ramping up their expectations for the Bank of England to implement additional interest rate hikes while increasingly under the impression that U.S. rates are on the verge of reaching their peak. Notably, the US Federal Reserve has entered a "blackout period" ahead of their July 26 meeting. As a result, this sentiment could put downward pressure on the U.S. dollar.
Meanwhile, the UK's inflation figures are a major risk event to watch for this week. Although there is an expectation for a drop in the inflation rate (from 8.7% to 8.2%), it is anticipated to remain four times higher than the Bank of England's official target. UK inflation data is due at 2 am (NY time) on Wednesday.
On the chart, the GBPUSD continues to explore lower levels following a test of a high target near 1.31465 on the daily chart last Friday. The market saw a modest corrective downward move last Friday, and again the first trading day of this week. This allowed the 20-day moving average to catch up with the price action. The big question now is whether sellers can push prices below the psychologically important level of 1.3000 ahead of the release of UK inflation data. The presence of buying pressure adds uncertainty to the situation.
Gbpusdsignals
GBPUSD Weekly Outlook: New perspective for the week | Follow-upIn the previous week, the growth of the Pound Sterling unfolded before our eyes, defying the weight of higher interest rates imposed by the Bank of England (BoE) on households in the United Kingdom. Despite this burden, prices surged and fearlessly tested the psychological resistance level of 1.28500 for the third consecutive week.
Furthermore, the Pound capitalized on the U.S. non-farm payroll data falling short of expectations. On Friday, the Labor Department revealed that June saw a lower-than-expected addition of 209,000 new hires, with May's figures revised downward by 33,000 to 306,000. However, amidst this backdrop, the unemployment rate experienced a decline from 3.7% to 3.6% in June, while average hourly earnings mirrored the previous month's growth, increasing by 0.4%.
Market sentiments are strongly suggesting that the Bank of England is poised to further raise interest rates, driven by the fact that U.K. inflation remains the highest among developed nations. This sentiment could potentially fuel an ongoing uptrend as investors eagerly seek higher yield returns from the Pound.
Let's now delve into the GBPUSD Technical Analysis, specifically focusing on price action within the 4-hour timeframes. Our comprehensive analysis explores both the bullish and bearish sentiments, uncovering potential trading opportunities for the upcoming week. We meticulously examine key levels, trendlines, and support and resistance levels to unveil crucial insights into the current market structure. We are going to keep a close eye on the key level for the new week, situated at $1.28500, which underwent multiple tests in the last 3 weeks hereby revealing the presence of sellers at this critical juncture. The market's reaction to this zone at the beginning of the upcoming week will play a pivotal role in shaping the direction of price action in the days that follow.
Stay connected to the channel and actively engage in the comment section to stay informed about the latest updates and developments. Thank you for watching, and I am thrilled to provide you with further insights into my upcoming content on the GBPUSD.
Disclaimer:
Trading on margin in the foreign exchange market (including commodities, CFDs, stocks, etc.) carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is provided by me for educational and informational purposes only to assist in making independent investment decisions. All information presented here is for reference purposes only, and I do not accept any responsibility for its accuracy.
It is important that you carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objectives, and risk tolerance level, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor to assess the suitability of your situation before making any investment.
I do not guarantee the accuracy of the information provided and shall not be held liable for any loss or damage that may arise directly or indirectly from the content or the receipt of any instructions or notifications related to it.
Please note that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
GBPUSD Weekly Outlook: New perspective for the week | Follow-upThis video provides a comprehensive analysis of the bullish and bearish sentiment in GBPUSD, focusing on price action-based technical analysis of support and resistance levels within the 4-hour timeframe.
In the previous week, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasizes the necessity for further rate hikes, and adding to the market volatility, the Bank of England surprises with a larger-than-expected rate hike, causing a stir in investor sentiment. This bullish attempt is evident on the charts around the $1.27000 zone, reflecting a momentary boost following the Bank of England's 50 basis point increases to a nearly one-year high.
Traditionally, higher interest rates lend support to currencies, but the Pound Sterling faces the risk of a potential recession in the U.K., prompting investors to seek refuge in safe-haven assets like the U.S. dollar. U.K. retail sales data, released recently, reveals a 2.1% annual decline in May, further indicating an economic slowdown.
On the U.S. economic front, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell concludes his two-day testimony before Congress, reiterating the potential for at least two more interest rate hikes this year to combat rising inflation.
Looking ahead, the trajectory of the Pound Sterling will be influenced by upcoming announcements of Gross Domestic Product data from both economies this week. In light of these latest economic developments, questions arise: If the larger-than-expected rate hike from the Bank of England fails to generate positive price movement for the Pound, how will the United Kingdom navigate its persistent inflationary pressures?
This video illustrates a comprehensive analysis of the bullish and bearish sentiment in GBPUSD, focusing on a technical examination of support and resistance levels within the 4-hour timeframe. We uncover how these critical levels can unlock potential trading opportunities for the upcoming week. Notably, I highlighted a key level at the $1.27000 zone, coinciding with the ascending trendline identified in the 4H timeframe. The market's response to this zone at the beginning of the week will wield considerable influence over the direction of price action in the days to come.
Stay connected to the channel and remain engaged in the comment section to stay informed about the latest updates and developments. Thank you for watching, and I eagerly anticipate providing you with further insights into my future content.
Disclaimer:
Trading on margin in the foreign exchange market (including commodities, CFDs, stocks, etc.) carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is provided by me for educational and informational purposes only to assist in making independent investment decisions. All information presented here is for reference purposes only, and I do not accept any responsibility for its accuracy.
It is important that you carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objectives, and risk tolerance level, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor to assess the suitability of your situation before making any investment.
I do not guarantee the accuracy of the information provided and shall not be held liable for any loss or damage that may arise directly or indirectly from the content or the receipt of any instructions or notifications related to it.
Please note that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
GBPUSD Weekly Outlook: New perspective for the week | Follow-upThe GBPUSD surged to a new annual high of 1.2850 as Bank of England (BoE) policymakers prepare for a potential interest rate hike. Meanwhile, the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) decided to hold off on an interest rate increase, indicating that the tightening phase is still ongoing. The Pound Sterling remains optimistic as discussions about a pause in the BoE's rate-hike policy continue.
Despite the Fed's neutral interest rate decision, the Pound Sterling continued to strengthen amid concerns about a potential recession in the United States. This positive market sentiment is partly due to the relatively weak performance of the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY). BoE Governor Andrew Bailey is confident that inflation will ease, but it is expected to remain high due to labor shortages and elevated food inflation.
Additionally, the Pound Sterling's trajectory will be influenced by the upcoming announcements of the consumer price index and the interest rate decision. Based on the latest economic developments, there is a general consensus that the Bank of England will further raise interest rates to combat stubborn inflation in the United Kingdom.
In our video, we conducted a comprehensive analysis of the GBPUSD's bullish and bearish sentiment, focusing on price action-based technical analysis of support and resistance levels within the 4-hour timeframe. We discussed how these levels can help identify potential trading opportunities in the coming week, providing insights and analysis on the GBPUSD chart. It is worth noting that we highlighted a range between 1.28500 and 1.27700, and the market participants' reaction to this zone at the beginning of the week may significantly impact the direction of price action in the upcoming week. Stay connected to this channel and stay tuned for updates in the comment section to stay informed.
Disclaimer:
Trading on margin in the foreign exchange market (including commodities, CFDs, stocks, etc.) carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is provided by me for educational and informational purposes only to assist in making independent investment decisions. All information presented here is for reference purposes only, and I do not accept any responsibility for its accuracy.
It is important that you carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objectives, and risk tolerance level, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor to assess the suitability of your situation before making any investment.
I do not guarantee the accuracy of the information provided and shall not be held liable for any loss or damage that may arise directly or indirectly from the content or the receipt of any instructions or notifications related to it.
Please note that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
GBPUSD top-down analysis Hello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
GbpUsd- 1.24 is very important at this momentIn my previous GbpUsd analysis, I've written that a break above 1.24 could lead to further gains to 1.2550 and even to 1.3 if 1.2550 will also fall.
However, Friday's NFP capped gains exactly to 1.2550, and a strong reversal followed almost negating the previous day's candle.
1.24 remains support for GbpUsd, but the pressure switched to the sell side.
A break under this level could lead to further losses and puts the important 1.2 psychological level in focus.
GBPUSD Weekly Outlook: New perspective for the week | Follow-up Welcome to my GBPUSD Technical Analysis Session.
Despite British retail sales data rising by more than expected in April, 0.5% from March and an improvement from the drop of 1.2% the prior month; the U.S. dollar against the Pound Sterling appears to be on course for its fourth consecutive weekly gain as U.S. rate hike expectations grow across the market and traders continue to accumulate positions for the potential that U.S. interest rates remain higher for longer. It is also worth noting that the high-impact economic features from the U.S. docket this week and the unresolved debt ceiling negotiation could incite risk-aversed trading activities at the beginning of the week resulting in a choppy market environment before the "big move" happens. GBPUSD Price Forecast: So, in this video, from a technical standpoint - we reviewed the GBPUSD Support and Resistance Levels on the 4H timeframe and how to use them to identify potential trading opportunities ahead of the new week (GBPUSD Chart Analysis).
Disclaimer:
Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility.
You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment.
I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
GBPUSD Below the 1D MA50, expecting more selling.The GBPUSD pair hit our upside target (1.2650) and May 27 2022 High on our last buy signal (see chart below) almost 2 months ago:
The price is now on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), having closed a candle below it yesterday for the first time since March 16. This is a bearish continuation signal that is targeting the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) yet again. Our target is at 1.2100. The 1D RSI can provide additional insight on a potential new buy entry at the bottom.
If however the price closes above the 1D MA50 instead on two straight 1D candles at least, then hedge the position with a buy targeting the June 01 2021 Lower Highs again. If the pair closes a 1D candle above that level, it will be the first time to do so in years, and will be a major buy signal. In that case we will buy and target the 1W MA200 (red trend-line) at 1.2850.
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GBP/USD Alert: Unrealistic Forecast for UK Inflation? Tomorrow, the latest inflation rate for the UK will be released, which will be significant for traders dealing with GBP/USD due to the perhaps unrealistic forecast for a 2-percentage point drop.
It is expected that the inflation rate for April will have significantly dropped to 8.2%. Are markets overly optimist with this forecast? In March, the consumer price inflation rate in the United Kingdom eased to 10.1% on a year-on-year basis, slightly lower than the 10.4% recorded in February but higher than the market's expectation of 9.8%.
The British pound has remained strong, with a value around $1.2435, staying close to its 12-month high of $1.2679 reached on May 10th. Currently, money markets predict an 80% chance of the Bank of England raising interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.75% in June, and a 79% chance of a 5% Bank Rate by September. Recently, the BoE increased rates to 4.5%, the highest level since 2008.
On the other hand, some expect the US Federal Reserve to pause its current tightening cycle as policymakers carefully consider concerns about inflation's impact on economic growth. There have been positive developments regarding discussions about the US debt ceiling, according to US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, who mentioned the possibility of a deal being reached tonight or tomorrow.
When examining the 4-hour chart, the pair tested an important 50-bar moving average (MA) and attracted buyers on Friday. This MA will continue to be a significant level leading up to the inflation rate data drop. If the GBP/USD pair maintains its upward bias, it will need to contend with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator, which recently dipped below the 50-midline. Should the 50-day MA be breached, the expected trading range for today could be between support at 1.2350 and resistance at 1.2400.
GBPUSD | Perspective for the new week | Follow-upThe U.S. dollar rose against the Pound Sterling on Friday and was on track for its biggest weekly gain since February despite concern about the U.S. debt ceiling and monetary policy. The aftermath of the consumer sentiment data is rippling a mixed reaction across the market ahead of the new week. Participants continue to digest features from the U.K economic docket which revealed that the gross domestic product grew by 0.1% in the first three months of 2023 coupled with a key interest rate hike by another 25 basis points data are significant factors that will come into play during the early hours of the coming week as we anticipate another handful of economic data. In this video, we have spotted structures and levels to look out for trading opportunities in the coming week(s).
Disclaimer:
Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility.
You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment.
I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
GBPUSD | Perspective for the new week | Follow-upGBPUSD price moved 0.45% higher hereby closing the previous week at the 1.26550 zone, hitting a new one-year high amidst the Bank of England battle with inflation. Consumer price inflation in the UK came in at 10.1% - five times the BOE’s mandate. The incoming week is laced with a handful of high-impact economic events from both the UK and US economic docket to trigger market influx either way. The BOE is generally expected to increase rates a quarter point to 4.5% this week and how the market is anticipating these was closely looked at in this video from a technical standpoint.
Disclaimer:
Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility.
You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment.
I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
GBPUSD | Perspective for the new week | Follow-upGBPUSD turns positive for the fourth straight week but this time around did a significant breakout of the 1.25000 level - climbing to a two-week high on Friday to set the tone for a bullish momentum ahead of the new month. However, bets for another 25 bps rate hike by the US Fed Reserve in the coming week could tilt an imbalance in the market influx. It is also important to note that the coming week is laced with a handful of high-impact macroeconomic event that could incite a choppy situation in this market.
Disclaimer:
Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility.
You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment.
I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
GBPUSD | Perspective for the new week | Follow-upBritish consumers remain affected by an elevated inflation rate, which stayed in double digits in March. Comments from a couple of Fed policymakers pointed to the US central bank raising interest rates by 25 basis points in early May, judging that inflation is still at problematic levels and monetary policy needs to be tightened. The market's immediate reaction to these sentiments has been positive as the US Dollar edged higher Friday and looks set to a bearish tone for the GBPUSD in the coming weeks. However, technical levels on the chart around the 1.23600 zone suggest bears need a whole lot of momentum and fundamental stimulus to break through this zone first as it does have a strong memory for buying power. With no high-impact fundamental stimulus from the UK docket in the coming week; the video illustrates what to look for in the current market structure to signal a buy or sell move this week.
Disclaimer:
Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility.
You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment.
I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
The pound may have downward demandAfter a sharp decline in the US market last Friday, GBP/USD has managed to stabilize above 1.2400 on Monday.The short-term technical side fails to provide directional clues, and may only have to wait for the currency pair to break through the consolidation channel,only then will there be a better continuity of behavior.
According to the current market structure, it may be more difficult for GBP/USD to continue to rise, and the daily line is expected to form a head-and-shoulder technical pattern, which will exert pressure on the future market structure and limit the technical upward space of GBP/USD; Moreover, the technical repair of the daily line is far from being in place, so GBP/USD is still in demand for a decline.
In the short term, pay attention to the resistance near 1.246 above.
GBPUSD | Perspective for the new week | Follow-upEconomists see a roughly two in three chance that the BoE will raise its interest rate next month to 4.5% from 4.25%, which would be its 12th consecutive rate rise since December 2021. With a week laced week series of high-impact macroeconomic events, the consumer price index will be the centre of focus as expect data on Wednesday to show a fall in consumer price inflation to 10% from 10.4%, but this will still leave it well above the target. From a technical standpoint, this video illustrates the dissection of the current market strucure to weigh in on the opportunities both the buyers and sellers have in the coming week in other to be able to be in a decent position to catch the impulse.
Disclaimer:
Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility.
You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment.
I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Will the pound usher in a bull market?The current interest rate hike is nearing the end. The market has digested it, and the dollar has fallen in a volatile manner. Now that European banks are accompanied by the bankruptcy of Credit Suisse, there should be other bank risks. At the same time, Europe is also following the Fed to raise interest rates. Now the Ukraine crisis continues, the European energy crisis, the food crisis and the refugee debt crisis continue, and the recession is inevitable, so the euro and the British pound are likely not to go into a bull market.
In addition, judging from the current structural trend, GBPUSD has rebounded sharply after a sharp decline, so the lower support is not very strong, and there is a need for a second fall to verify the lower support, so GBPUSD still has a need for backtesting in the short term.
In the short term: pay attention to the resistance of 1.245 above, and observe the defense of 1.238 below.
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GBPUSD : Current Situation & Technical , Fundamental View#GBPUSD
- Currently the MARKET SENTIMENT for GBPUSD is slightly UP SIDE. All MARKETS including STOCKS and STOCKS may be UP due to MARKET RISK ON in the past days. It affects the POUND greatly. GBPUSD may be slightly UP this week. Anyway, XXXUSD PAIRS are being BUYed slightly higher because the FED is a bit dovish.
- The price can definitely move up to the resistance level above the GBPUSD. The reason for that is because there is a slightly UP BIAS in the MARKET for USD. But GBPUSD can be BUY until 1.2536 LEVEL. After that, you can SELL at 1.2099 LEVEL. So go to GBPUSD SELL ENTRIES.
GBPUSD | Perspective for the new week | Follow-upDespite US job growth slowing down, the economy still added 236,000 jobs in March though below expectation and has averaged gains of 345,000 per month during the first quarter, well above the level the central bank sees as consistent with its 2% inflation goal. An immediate reaction resulted in the dollar strengthening on Friday hereby suggesting that the Federal Reserve may have to raise interest rates next month. With nonfarm payrolls out of the way, all attention is now focused on next week's US consumer price index (CPI) for the month of March. From a technical standpoint, this video shed light on the critical nature of the current market structure as we anticipate the series of high-impact macroeconomic events in the coming week.
Disclaimer:
Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility.
You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment.
I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
GBPUSD | Perspective for the new week | Follow-upU.S. consumer spending rose moderately in February, while inflation showed signs of cooling hereby boosting hopes the Federal Reserve would be less aggressive in hiking interest rates. On the other hand, a dim economic outlook overshadows data revealing Britain avoided a recession in the final months of 2022 could be a turning point for the Sterling as it hit resistance again at the close of last week's trading session at the $1.24500 zone. In this video, we did a technical analysis of the current market structure to decipher what to look out for in the coming week as all eyes will be on the NFP data amongst other high-impact macroeconomic events this week.
Disclaimer:
Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility.
You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment.
I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
GBPUSD Making a bullish break-outThe GBPUSD pair eventually rebounded and hit the Double Top Resistance, which was our Target as presented on our February 28 analysis:
At the moment the price is above that level (1.2450) and as long as it closes above it, we will be targeting 1.2650 on the May 27 2022 High Resistance. A closing below 1.2450 could set this rise back to the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) until the 1D RSI turns neutral around 50.00 again and attracts buyers.
Note that there is an important long-term Resistance Cluster ahead as besides the 1.2665 Resistance (May 27 High), we have the June 01 2021 Lower Highs trend-line. A break above the 1W MA200 (red trend-line) places GBPUSD back into long-term bullish territory on the 1W time-frame.
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