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Gbpusdtrade

GBPUSD Sell Idea. Detailed Technical Analysis.Technical Overview The GBP/USD pair is showing a bullish trend as I draw in the chart, but it could face a bearish backlash at the 1st resistance at 1.31400, a level that has resisted multiple swings in the past. If that happens, the price could fall to the 1st support at 1.30000. This level is a pullback support, meaning it could attract some buyers. Further down, the 2nd support at 1.2847 is another pullback support, indicating more possible buying interest. On the other hand, if the price rises, it could meet selling pressure at the 2nd resistance at 1.32800, a level that overlaps with previous resistances, which could trigger a price reversal. Fundamental point of View The US inflation rate was expected to drop from 4% to 3%, but no one thought it would happen so soon. Everyone was betting on a more gradual decline, maybe to 3.1%. This dampened the appetite for the US dollar. But the reality was even more surprising, as inflation fell to 3.0%. This convinced everyone that the Federal Reserve would only raise the interest rate one more time. Some even speculated that the Fed might pause its policy tightening. It’s possible that by the end of the year, the interest rate in the US will start to go down. And the dollar immediately lost value, even though it was already quite cheap. So, it’s time to think about a bounce or a minor correction. But there needs to be a good reason for that. Officially, this role was assigned to the UK industrial production report. UK’s industrial production kept shrinking as it dropped 2.3% in May. This was slightly better than the predicted 2.4%. But now investors are more worried about the interest rate gap. So, further shrinkage in industrial production only slowed down the dollar’s weakness a little bit. But this could lead to a corrective movement, maybe with some delay. So, a rebound seems more likely. But before that, the market will stay calm for a while. The UK unemployment data did not bother the traders this week. Neither did the GDP and industrial production data yesterday. The US inflation report is surely more relevant, but the pair has been on the rise for three days, ignoring everything else. The GDP shrank by 0.1% in May, less than the expected -0.2-0.3%. The industrial production slipped by 0.6%, despite more hopeful forecasts. So, both reports were disappointing, but the pound kept climbing since the morning. Such a climb can only end when the bullish traders are happy and start taking profits. The bulls are gaining momentum, but this could backfire on them. The faster the move, the sooner it will end and the harder the retracement. The highs and lows are still rising. According to my point of view a strong reversal signal is expected soon and a break below the last trend line will favor the US dollar. Conclusion My advice to traders is to trade GBPUSD only at the key levels and wait for the trend lines to break. Also keep an eye on the fundamentals as I expect GBP to drop in September. Another strategy to go short is to wait for the 50EMA and 200SMA crossover.
Short
by AhsanTufail
GBP/USD Continues to Navigate DownAnd it remains bearish, targeting $1.23. Short-Term Price Action Sub $1.24 Despite efforts to shape support from the $1.24 region, recent hours witnessed price elbow beneath the psychological level. This followed a near-pip-perfect H1 AB=CD harmonic bearish formation taking form at $1.2467 (denoted by a 100% projection ratio), a base that was bolstered by a H1 trendline support-turned-resistance taken from the low $1.2392. Downside support can be seen nearby at $1.2356, with a break paving the way for follow-through selling towards $1.23. GBP/USD is losing ground as traders react to inflation reports from UK. Inflation Rate declined from 10.1% in March to 8.7% in April, compared to analyst consensus of 8.2%. Core Inflation Rate increased from 6.2% to 6.8%, so the BoE will have to raise rates at the next meeting to fight inflation. In case GBP/USD settles below the support at 1.2345, it will move towards the next support level at 1.2300. A successful test of this level will push GBP/USD towards the support at 1.2275. R1:1.2370 – R2:1.2410 – R3:1.2440 S1:1.2345 – S2:1.2300 – S3:1.2275 View from Higher Timeframes Show Scope for Further Downside The bigger picture continues to put forth a bearish bias. The weekly timeframe recently tested a major long-term trendline resistance drawn from the high of $1.4250, placing weekly support at $1.1851 in view as a potential long-term support target. Aiding the weekly timeframe’s resistance, an additional layer of resistance made its way into the frame at $1.2638 on the daily chart in mid-May. This has positioned daily support at $1.2272 on the radar and pulled the Relative Strength Index (RSI) south of the 50.00 centreline towards indicator support at 37.78. In the United Kingdom, the most important categories in the consumer price index are Transport (16 percent of the total weight) and Recreation and Culture (15 percent). Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels accounts for 13 percent; Restaurants and Hotels for 12 percent and Food and Non-alcoholic Beverages for 10 percent. The index also includes: Miscellaneous Goods and Services (9 percent); Clothing and Footwear (7 percent); Furniture, Household Equipment and Maintenance (6 percent). Alcoholic Beverages and Tobacco; Health, Communication and Education account for remaining 11 percent of total weight. The consumer price inflation in the UK fell to 8.7% year-on-year in April 2023, the lowest since March 2022, due to a sharp slowdown in electricity and gas prices. Still, the inflation rate exceeded market expectations of 8.2% and remained well above the Bank of England's target of 2.0%. Housing & utilities inflation dropped to 12.3% from 26.1% in March, with the cost for electricity, gas & other fuels increasing 24.3%, compared with 85.6% the month before. Prices have also advanced at a slower pace for restaurants & hotels (10.2% vs 11.3%) and furniture, household equipment & maintenance (7.5% vs 8.0%). Meanwhile, food & non-alcoholic beverages inflation remained close to March's record high (19.0% vs 19.1%), while cost accelerated for transport (1.5% vs 0.8%), recreation & culture (6.3% vs 4.6%) and miscellaneous goods & services (6.8% vs 6.7%). The core rate, which excludes food and energy, jumped to 6.8%, the highest since March 1992 and above well forecasts of 6.2%. Given the scope to post additional underperformance, GBP/USD is likely to cross beneath H1 support from $1.2356 and target $1.23, followed by daily support mentioned above at $1.2272. A H1 close lower, therefore, could ignite breakout selling.
Short
by DaveBrascoFX
3
GBPUSD - Bullish price action ✅Hello traders! ‼️ This is my perspective on GBPUSD. Technical analysis: Here we are in a bullish market structure from 4H timeframe perspective, so I am looking for longs. I see bullish continuation as price rejected from bullish order block + institutional mid figure 1.27500. Fundamental analysis: This week we have a lot of news on GBP and USD. On Wednesday will be released monthly and yearly CPI on USD, as well on Thursday monthly PPI on USD and monthly GDP on GBP. Pay attention to the results in order to validate the analysis. Like, comment and subscribe to be in touch with my content!
Long
by Snick3rSD
2
FOMC Minutes in the Charts: EUR/USD & GBP/USDDuring their June meeting, minutes released on Wednesday indicated that almost all Federal Reserve officials expect further tightening in the future. Despite the majority's belief in upcoming rate hikes, policymakers chose not to increase rates due to concerns about over-tightening. They acknowledged the delayed impact of previous policies and other factors, which led them to skip the June meeting after implementing ten consecutive rate increases. Out of the 18 participants, all but two anticipated at least one rate hike to be appropriate within this year, while twelve members expected two or more hikes. The prevailing consensus that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs by 25 basis points at the end of the July policy meeting has lent some strength to the US Dollar and exerted downward pressure on the GBP/USD and EUR/USD. The DXY (US Dollar Index) surged above 103.30, reaching its highest level of the week. EUR/USD further declined to the 1.0850 region. The outlook for the Euro has turned negative as the EUR/USD pair dropped below the 20-day simple moving average (SMA). If the GBP/USD pair falls below 1.2700 and confirms that level as resistance, the next potential bearish targets could be 1.2680, 1.2658, 1.2647 according to fib retracement levels and previously pivot points.
by BlackBull_Markets
2
GBP/USD daily chart analysis : 1.2450 on the cards?Dear traders, in the daily chart of GBP/USD, we can see that the bullish momentum has faded in the last 6-7 days. After hitting the 1.2830 level, price is slowly retreating. Yesterday's daily candle is a long-legged doji which indicates indecision in the market . However, looking at the price action it seems 1.2720 is now a solid resistance in the hourly chart . So, as long as price stays below the 1.2720 level, GBP/USD can fall further to 1.26 and eventually to 1.2450 level.
by YourLazyTrader
17