GBPUSD top-down analysisHello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
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GBPUSD : Current Situation & Technical , Fundamental View#GBPUSD
- Currently the MARKET SENTIMENT for GBPUSD is slightly UP SIDE. All MARKETS including STOCKS and STOCKS may be UP due to MARKET RISK ON in the past days. It affects the POUND greatly. GBPUSD may be slightly UP this week. Anyway, XXXUSD PAIRS are being BUYed slightly higher because the FED is a bit dovish.
- The price can definitely move up to the resistance level above the GBPUSD. The reason for that is because there is a slightly UP BIAS in the MARKET for USD. But GBPUSD can be BUY until 1.2382 LEVEL. After that, you can SELL at 1.1580 LEVEL. So go for GBPUSD SHORT ENTRIES.
GBP/USD: The weakness of the US dollar fuels the British poundToday GBP/USD continued Friday's rally and hit its highest level in 5 weeks at 1.2250.As investors reassess the possibility of the US Federal Reserve keeping policy interest rates unchanged at its upcoming meeting, the broad weakness of the US dollar helps GBP/USD maintain its advantage.
Risk sentiment dominated the market in early Asian trading hours as the market reacted to the news that UBS Group agreed to acquire Credit Suisse Group.More importantly, the Federal Reserve has resumed daily swaps with the Bank of Canada (BoC), the Bank of Japan (BoJ), the Swiss National Bank (SNB), and the European Central Bank (ECB) to provide additional liquidity when needed.
The positive impact of these developments on market sentiment is still short-lived.The sharp decline in U.S. Treasury yields shows that investors are repricing the Fed's policy outlook.According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, the probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday has fallen to less than 50%.
The British FTSE 100 index fell more than 1% at the beginning of the session, and U.S. stock index futures fell 0.4% to 0.8%, reflecting a risk-averse atmosphere.
Nevertheless, in the current environment, the dollar seems to have lost its attractiveness as a safe harbor.As investors become more and more worried about the deepening of the global financial crisis, they avoid betting on the Fed's active policy tightening, which will lead to a weakening of the dollar, which will lead to a strengthening of GBP/USD.
In the trend of GBP/USD, the effectiveness of breaking through the downward channel has been established, and a new upward trend is being re-established. In order to determine the effectiveness of the uptrend channel, GBP/USD will also step back in the short term while maintaining a good upward trend.While GBP/USD maintains its advantage, the effectiveness of the support at the top and bottom conversion position of the 1.220 line below can be determined. Therefore, the current support below is at the 1.220 line, while the initial resistance above is at the 1.227 position, and the strong resistance is at the 1.230 position.
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GBPUSD BuyThe GBP/USD finished last week’s trading around the 1.21725 ratios. Having started the week essentially near the 1.20700 mark the bullish outcome for the GBP/USD should be given attention by speculators. Yes, volatility did hit the GBP/USD last week and a low of 1.20085 was touched approximately on Wednesday. However, the currency pair was able to incrementally trade higher after this depth and came within sight of highs near the 1.22000 ratios before going into the weekend and suffering a slight reversal lower.
The crisis in banking confidence will no doubt continue into this week and that will certainly make for nervous trading GBP/USD conditions. However, from a speculative point of view, the rather robust results upward within the GBP/USD are intriguing. The currency pair finished its trading within the upper part of the weekly price range and was able to maintain a rather steady pace higher, which started on the 8th of March. Yes, global concerns regarding Credit Suisse and U.S. regional banks will continue to be heard in the coming days, but the buying in the GBP/USD which has been generated the past week and a half of the trading is worthwhile to consider.
GBPUSD h1 price is in an uptrend. However, early today, the pair may have a short correction before continuing to go up. It is recommended to wait to buy when the price returns to 1.2140, SL: 1.2100, TP: 1.2240
GBPUSD Technical Analysis and Trade IdeaIn this video, we take a look the GBPUSD and observe that it has currently traded up to a significant resistance level. Below that, there is a price gap and sell-side liquidity in the form of stop losses, which could potentially target for bigger players. During the video, we delve into trend analysis, price action, market structure, price gaps, and touch on a potential trade opportunity. Please note that everything discussed in the video is purely for educational purposes and should not be construed as financial advice.
GBPUSD: Continue buying, target 1.2400
The recent failures of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank have exposed cracks in the banking system, partially due to overly restrictive monetary policy. This situation could quickly spread, causing the Federal Reserve to intervene to protect depositors and launch emergency liquidity programs to support lending institutions.
In summary, systemic risk may pose challenges to policymakers' long-term plans, at least in the short term, prompting them to prioritize financial stability over combating inflation, which is a slow-moving problem. In this situation, next week's FOMC forward guidance may lean towards a dovish stance.
A few days ago, the US dollar had strong bullish momentum, but the situation has now turned, as is the nature of the market. If there is no strong risk aversion or events that cause funds to flow into safe assets, the US dollar may continue to retreat in the short term, especially if dovish expectations are met.
GBPUSD failed to break above the resistance level of 1.2200 and experienced a downward trend under pressure. However, if the price confirms its position above this resistance, we may see a move towards 1.2450, which is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the 2022 decline. Therefore, I still recommend buying on dips, and our long position bought at 1.1800 remains in place.
Personal trading advice: Continue to enter long positions near 1.2000, with a target of 1.2200-1.2400. If the resistance level is broken, continue to hold the position and look for further upward movement. In the long term, there is still significant room for growth, and I will continue to update my personal trading strategy in the future. Please stay tuned.
GBPUSD BuyGBP/USD rebounds from the 21-Daily Moving Average (DMA) at the 1.2000 key psychological level. The bounce comes after easing demand for the US Dollar due to backstop plans put forward by major central banks.
Federal Reserve (Fed), Swiss National Bank (SNB), and Bank of England (BoE) intervened with rescue plans, calming risk sentiment fired by liquidity crunch among some regional and international banks.
GBPUSD h1 price is forming a slightly bullish structure. Today, it is possible that the pair will have a correction to the 1.2060 area and then continue to go up. Recommended to wait to buy to 1.2060, SL: 1.2010, TP: 1.2130
GBPUSD SellThe GBP/USD pair has attempted a recovery move from the psychological support of 1.2000 in the early Asian session. The Cable witnessed a sell-off on Wednesday after reports citing internal ‘materialistic weaknesses’ in Credit Suisse spooked market sentiment. The release of the financial budget by United Kingdom Finance Minister (FM) Jeremy Hunt failed to provide a cushion to the Pound Sterling.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) has corrected after challenging the critical resistance of 105.00 as the release of weak United States Retail Sales and lower Producer Price Index (PPI) figures confirmed that the US inflation is meaningfully declining. This eased hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) bets dramatically.
GBPUSD h1 price is returning to the downtrend. Early today it is possible that the pair will correct slightly and then continue to go down. Currently traders can wait to sell around 1.2120, SL: 1.2170, TP: 1.2010
GBPUSD BuyGBP/USD portrays the typical pre-data anxiety as it seesaws around 1.2150-60 during early Wednesday. That said, the Cable pair traders await the key UK Budget Report, as well as the US Retail Sales for February, amid mixed sentiment and sluggish markets.
It should be noted that the mostly mixed UK data and a lack of hawkish bias surrounding the Bank of England (BoE) seem to weigh on the GBP/USD prices amid the cautious mood ahead of an important event.
GBPUSD long term trend is still bullish. However, currently on the h1 chart, the price is showing signs of correction. Today, it is possible that the pair will return to the 1.2100 area before continuing to move up. Recommended to wait to buy to 1.2100, SL: 1.2030, TP: 1.2200
GBPUSD BuyThe GBPUSD is trading to a new session high and in the process is looking to break above a swing era between 1.21425 and 1.2147. Those swing highs correspond with highs from highs from February 21 and again on February 28. The high price is currently trading at 1.2153.
The two year yield is down -55 basis points to 4.036%. The low yield for the day reach 3.999% before bouncing modestly to the upside. The 10 year note is now down 25 basis points at 3.445%.
GBPUSD h1 price is in an uptrend. However, in the short term, it is possible that this pair will have a correction before continuing to go up. Recommended to wait to buy when the price returns to 1.2100, SL: 1.2040, TP: 1.2200
GBPUSD SellThe GBP/USD has gone back and forth during the course of the trading week to show signs of hesitation, but we did dip a little bit lower during the week. Because of this, I think that if we break down below the bottom of the candlestick for the week, then it opens up a potential run down to the 1.15 level. To the upside, the 50-Week EMA comes into the picture near the 1.22 level, and I think could offer a bit of resistance. It does look like we are trying to bounce a bit, but it’s worth noting that several of the previous weekly candlesticks have formed inverted hammers and therefore I think going higher from here is going to be a bit of a struggle.
GBPUSD h1 price is still on the upside. Today, it is possible that the pair will sweep up to the 1.2140 resistance area and then turn down again. Recommend waiting to sell to 1.2140, SL: 1.2180, TP: 1.2040
GBPUSD | BULLS READY TO CHARGEGBPUSD | BULLS READY TO CHARGE
GBPUSD is currently standing at the top of short term bearish parallel channel. The price is expected to move in the upward direction as daily and weekly timeframe suggesting strong bullish momentum.
We are looking to buy on dip this week as risk rewards ratios become very good.
A break of 1.19260 (support level) will bring more pressure on bulls. So risk should be well defined before taking any position.
It's important to note that Forex trading involves significant risks and should only be undertaken by experienced traders who have a thorough understanding of the market and its dynamics. It's always a good idea to do your own research and consult with a professional before making any trading decisions.
GBPUSD: Enter long positions on dips
Consequences of Powell's testimony overnight:
Higher interest rate prospects for 2023.
As of writing, the terminal interest rate expectation has risen to 5.655%.
A 50 basis point rate hike is more likely at the March meeting.
If the upcoming US inflation and nonfarm payrolls data fall short of expectations, it may dampen market expectations for rate hikes and provide upward support for the pound.
After yesterday's sharp drop, the GBPUSD trend is temporarily hesitating, waiting for further guidance from fundamental data. After breaking through the psychological level of 1.1900, the 200-day moving average, and the lower support of the wedge, the bears are currently trying to push prices down to the previous oscillation high support of 1.1738.
Currently testing the support level at 1.1800-1.1820, if the support is effective, the daily chart will form a double bottom support, and I will buy a small position in this area, expecting to capture a wave of rebound profits. Currently, the upward trend remains intact, and I will gradually buy on dips to start medium to long-term layout operations.
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GBPUSD: Trade within this range
Currently, the market is still fluctuating within the support range, and overall it remains somewhat weak. However, there has been a significant decline recently, and regardless of the variety, it is almost certain that there will be a rebound after a major drop, with the difference being the size of the rebound.
Therefore, the current trading strategy is to go long at low levels and short at high levels.
Specific recommendations:
Buy in the 180-183 range and take profit at 1.192-1.196.
Short above 1.196 and take profit near 1.184.
GBPUSD#GBPUSD
- Currently the MARKET SENTIMENT for GBPUSD is slightly UP SIDE. All MARKETS including STOCKS and STOCKS may be UP due to MARKET RISK ON in the past days. It affects the POUND greatly. GBPUSD may be slightly UP this week. Anyway, XXXUSD PAIRS are being BUYed slightly higher because the FED is a bit dovish.
- The price can definitely move up to the SUPPORT LEVEL below the GBPUSD. The reason for that is because there is a slightly UP BIAS in the MARKET for USD. But GBPUSD can be BUY until 1.2700 LEVEL. Before that, you can SELL at 1.1580 LEVEL. So go for GBPUSD LONG ENTRIES.