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GOLD Gearing up a long-term move to $2600.This is a simple macro projection using the LMACD on the 1M chart and the MA20 and MA50.
It appears that Gold is reproducing the early 2000s bullish run that led to its All Time Highs of 1900 is 2011. The MA20/MA50 Golden Cross has taken place and those MA periods have never crossed paths again, giving way to a strong 2019/2020 rise.
The LMACD is on the Resistance of the 2004 price fractal. Back then, Gold was supported the whole year on the 1M MA20 but upon contact, never broke. This March (2020) we almost had contact with the MA20. If we have another similar event, it will be the strongest confirmation if an upcoming hyper bullish extension to $2600 (roughly +160% from the 2015 bottom as it happened in 2004 on the 1999 bottom).
Do you agree with this macro idea? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!
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Update on XAU/USD Futures ( GC ) by ThinkingAntsOkMain items we can see on the 4HS Chart:
a) The price is above a significant Support/Resistance zone
b) There we saw the formation of a Triangle Pattern (ABCDE Completed)
c) From a Technical Perspective, once we have a breakout of a structure like this, we should expect a new bullish movement
d) Our Bullish Target is a Weekly Resistance Zone at 1900
e) Now we have a new corrective Structure ABC pattern, and the price made its first attempt to break it
f) Also, we have an ascending trendline in which the price is supported.
g) This is another excellent structure to develop long setups towards the next Target.
Silver Destined to Break Multi Year ResistanceWhat a time to be a trader...and what a day! U.S. markets gapped up and held their gains throughout todays session after Moderna, Inc. reported positive phase 1 results of a potential Covid-19 vaccine. Could it really be that simple for the bulls? It'll be interesting to see how the market reacts when the Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks at a scheduled Senate hearing tomorrow. Perhaps the Dow rips another 1000 points or maybe, just maybe the long side is getting too crowded? More on this on upcoming posts. Today, I wanted to go over Silver .
It's Happening!
Yes, we told you so! More than a week ago we mentioned how Silver could potentially begin to out perform Gold in the coming weeks. Well, it has! Already out performing Gold by nearly 10% since last Thursday. Sure, Gold is up significantly over the last year but, the reason why I am so excited is because Silver could just be getting started. Want the proof? Let's take at some charts below.
Above is the daily chart of Silver. Currently Silver is getting rejected off a six month cluster of resistance. It wouldn't surprise me if price took a breather before heading higher. RSI is approaching overbought levels, so any price action higher would lead to bearish divergence potentially requiring resolution. Stacking bids at the support highlighted would serve as optimal entires.
Next, is the weekly chart of silver (see below). Notice how I have't updated resistance #1 . Yes, we broke above it, but we haven't had confirmation of support. This will likely end up being support but in trading you never take things as 100% certainty.
I also added a comment in between stating that the current range silver is trading within could be considered a no trade zone. What I am getting at is not to FOMO . Be smart on your approach. Let price consolidate and provide us with clear entries. With that said, if Silver does continue to rip higher, a daily close above the resistance #2 which coincides with a major descending trendline could be a breakout entry. Of course, practice good risk management by using stops.
The most bullish signal in more than a decade may be on the monthly chart below.
Above, you'll see the last two instances when Silver was either at or crossing the 20 SMA and experienced a bullish MACD cross within the positive territory. Yup, It's happening again! Will history repeat itself? I am betting that it will. Bias: Bullish .
More than Silver
Alternatives to buying Silver are ETFs and also silver miners. I'll be touching up these stocks in upcoming posts.
Have a great evening and happy trading!
Gold, H4 - symmetrical triangle breakoutThe upper limit in the symmetrical triangle pattern has been broken. In our recent analysis, we have mentioned that this pattern may be crucial for the gold market. What is more, if the recent top at 1747 USD will be broken too, we may expect another rally.
The textbook target is located at 1813 USD and it is set by the height of the triangle pattern. The nearest potential support could be set by the line drawn through the tops. Only a move back inside the triangle pattern may change the current bullish sentiment.
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Daniel Kostecki, Chief Analyst Conotoxia Ltd.
Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Daily Analysis of GOLD ( XAU/USD Futures) by ThinkingAntsOkUse this as a guide to develop your view of the chart.
Main items we can see:
a) We have a clear Weekly support resistance zone that worked as a resistance for a long time before was broken with a bullish movement
b) Now item a) is working as a support
c) On the Support, we can see a Triangle Pattern that is now completed and close to the breakout
d) Our next target for the coming bullish movement is 1900
e) If the price goes below 1663, we will consider this analysis as invalid, and the next target for the bearish movement will be 1515
Gold, H4 - symmetrical triangle patternThe price of gold has been creating a potential symmetrical triangle pattern. The price is still below its upper limit and above its lower limit. These lines are the potential and nearest resistance and support areas for the market.
The textbook target could be set by the height of the triangle pattern. If its upper limit is broken we would expect a rally with the target at 1813 USD. However, if the line drawn through the bottoms is broken then the target may be located at 1593 USD.
________
Daniel Kostecki, Chief Analyst Conotoxia Ltd.
Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
My Favorite TradeI'm not going to pretend to know what's going to happen to stocks...in Dollars terms at least. I'm also concerned about a spike higher in real rates due to deflation. That said, I believe the long-term reward in being short stocks in gold terms is massive. Keep your leverage under control and add to the trade over time.
GOLD long breakout: retesting the local triangle (Short-term)GOLD /USD Long position after confluence, Triangle breakoutPullback:
retesting the local triangle upside: Short-term analysis
- GOLD Long position: Confluence rejection: Breakout & Retesting the global Trend-line (99%)
As we can realize that GOLD had succeded to breakout the globale triangle pattern after many rejections at the weekly upside of the triangle, it was expected to retest thatTrend what contains now (and before) many pending orders ... to continue at the upside till the 1721 zone and then to the 1736 and so on.
** GOLD has proved now that it have more liquidity to go up for 1736 and the monthly globale UPRANGE!
**Instructions:
- Always wait for a reversal signal or confirmation before take any trade.
- This is an idea to help you make a decision.