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USA/GOLD: the truth about $SPX-Why is the SPX a lie? For starters it weights the 500 most desirable companies and, to continue, its unit of reference is the dollar... an "unbacked" currency (as crypto fanatics say with some reason... people so blinded by their infatuation that from a half-truth they are capable of elaborating truths of a ton or even more). -Ok, and what do you want to invent, wifi rebel? There is no need to invent anything, luckily: besides the marketer SPX there is also the NYA that considers more than 2000 NYSE companies... and I believe NYA more than SPX, to make a long story short. And the dollar, although it is backed by much more than ink and paper (because behind this bill is the most powerful economy on the planet and not Argentina or Venezuela), anyway it has a lot of lies and the CPI (US Consumer Price Index) proves it every day. -And what about that? And with that it seems clear to me that we should not pay so much attention to the SPX or the dollar... especially having the NYA and gold to get a historical ratio that reflects the ups and downs in the romance between Mr. Gold and Mr. Stock Market (let's be inclusive). -And why don't you put CPI into this ratio? Well, I don't think it's necessary inasmuch as both constituents are equally affected by the depreciation of the greenish paper... so the ratio itself gives us ecumenical information on the binomial. Amen. ********************************************************************************************************** Well, let's get more serious: What we get concretely from looking at this ratio is HOW MANY GOLDEN CONTRACTS THE NYA CAN PAY OUT OVER TIME. It's that simple and that far-reaching... because if we're going to bother with "FIAT money blablabla", well then let's measure the US market in GOLD and stop whining pseudo-arguments. Does it make sense or not? I say yes... Now let's break it down: 1) the trend line below is impressive: it has three millimeter contact points... so precise that, somehow, they are backing up all the chatter I wrote above: the truth of the USA MKT is in GOLD and not USD; 2) seen this way bubbles and crises don't match sooooo much with the orthodox look in USD; 3) the "real SPX" is still bullish in very long term ... but since 2000 and the .com explosion it is still in bearish mode ... Yes: 20 years losing against gold, it's that simple .... 4) however we also see a very clear triangle figure... that was overcome to pull back to a millimeter throwback against that important TL... and now what we have is a very interesting resistance at 9.60 (NYA is paying 8.76 gold contracts and if it reaches to pay more than 9.60, "it blows up" a timberman would say). *********************************************************************************************************** Conclusion: I actually think all these arguments make sense, rationally speaking, and what I see here is very reassuring to me about "the current bubble" that has been talked about for a long time. Why? Because that bubble is measured in the "lie" of the dollar... so it is worth as much as a lie (i.e. nothing), and on the other hand in gold we have a symmetrical triangle of upward continuation that is about to be executed... with targets so astronomical that not even the most smokeseller "twistar" would dare to handle it. Think about it...
TVC:NYALong
by GusNord
GC One hour. +350 Tick bullish pushThe GC one hour time frame is in a large up trend. The market hit the up trend and is showing signs of pushing bullish towards the daily up Fibonacci extension price point 1922.4 about +350 ticks away. Entry: Counter trend line break bullish in the buy zone. STOP: 1846.5 LIMIT: 1922.4 As long as the market stays above the long term up trend line. It will be a good idea to turn to the five minute time frame and to look for tunnel trader long / destination trader long opportunities.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by JoshuaMartinez
4
The Direction Of Gold Is UP TemporarilyThe direction of GC futures is UP There is the overbought (OB) trend noise balance (TNB) indicator on 1D-1W to confirm this There is a 1M BUY weakness (WK) indicator to confirm short/medium term There are no 'active' indicators to conflict this There are 'inactive' indicators to conflict this, the 1Q SSTO SELL signal There are warning signs of the 2D 6UP which filled 50% so it made an attempt to fill and not much more can be expected although typically 33.3% (1844.1) is reached for more bullish potential. There are 'inactive' warnings signs 1Y RSI OB, 1Y 12UP. Be aware of the cost of any potential SL and the affect of that on the account. In this scenario CMP 1889, 1W LOW SL 1855, 1 MGC contract $10.00 = 1 'point', cost = $340, In the book, Trading For A Living - a trade should not risk more than 2% of the account, account size = $340 / 0.02 = $17,000 minimum. The narrative of GC futures is exhausting due to the record 12 green 1Y closes in a row from 2001 to 2012. This caused the 1Y RSI to reach 90 in 2012. When the RSI produced a SELL signal by trading below 70, it immediately caused a crash to the 9 SMA at 1167.7 the following year. Now that the 1Y RSI has again closed above 70 last year and now sits at 75, there is a concern price will fall to the 9 SMA if it trades below 70 again. Because this is a long-term idea, I consider it 'inactive' and I only trade in the direction the daily charts are moving in. For that reason, I will consider buying between the 1D 18 SMA and the 2D 18 SMA support zone as confirmed by the OB TNB indicator. The price is already at the top of the support zone so buying is reasonable but because the support zone is wide, the SL is difficult to place. I do have 2 potential SL to use which I forgot to label on the chart. 1 would be the up trend line beginning 3/31 and the other would be the 1W LOW. Unfortunately these both fall above the support of 2D 18 SMA. Not only that, but there is the 2D 6UP 33.3% below that support zone. Like I said, the techincals of GC are an exhausting mess. I would wait for more short-term confirmations, better 1D BB conditions (at least 1XP rather than 1CP), wait for the FED interest rate decision next week.
COMEX:GC1!
by UnknownUnicorn23694386
2
XAUUSD the target we are aiming for. Today, we will share with you a 4hs chart on XAUUSD - In April, we opened long positions on the precious metal, and after two months, we are close to our expected target - As you can see, after the breakout of the descending channel, we observed a straight bullish movement with an ascending trendline as the main structure of the current situation. - Currently, we are observing a consolidation situation on the price after breaking a key resistance zone now working as support (1850 - 1860). We expect the price to stay above that level (otherwise, we will start thinking that our view is not going as expected) - Regarding the long-term view we have on XAUUSD. If we look at a daily chart or weekly chart, we can see that the descending channel is actually a Flag pattern of a huge impulse. And we think the bullish trend will continue in the future, making new ATH. However, we also expect a several weeks correction on the next resistance zone (where we are planning to close our entry) - Let's finish this post with the core idea. "The Target": We will be closing 100% of our position on the Green circle, we don't want to trade exactly on the edge of the resistance zone, and we rather sacrifice some pips and gain security on the target of our position. - It would not be crazy to observe an apparent breakout of the resistance zone, giving the impression that the price will keep going up; however, based on the study we made of previous situations like this one, we think a correction in that zone has a high probability. Thanks for reading!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by ThinkingAntsOk
6
Ready for a Move Circled are at .78 Fib retracement you can see two wicks - these were two quick rejections. I was able to sell both of them and took some profit today at yesterdays VPOC today. HOWEVER look at this price action, it went nowhere today yet managed to sweep longs and shorts. We are sitting at the top of a multi-month trend line (see related ideas) , we are also sitting on the weekly and monthly VWAPS. We have completely balanced - and now here comes the move. Looking at the RSI on the back test you'll notice how weak it is - and it was quick (barely got filled) Targets : the obviously one is the VPOC shown at 1872, HOWEVER There are more. I believe we could see 1836 to 1818. There are VPOCs there and high volume nodes to offer support. Plan: If you we get one more back test (fake move) you can take a short in the highlighted area yellow box - if price shows strength past the .78 Retracement - its invalidated. To get into this trade you might have to do so at the Asian open at 9 EST. Mostly likely they try to ramp it and sell it to retail on their open.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by Maximilianned
gold have buystop on today high today dollar index go down dont allow gold go downer , gold trend + and DXY push it up to trend now on gold AC on daily chart is full red,going turn green = buyer and + up trend 90% can comes AC on 1 hour chart now is red and little can push gold down but when it go down,red full (buysignal) and gold can go up STRONGLY ADVICE =on gold (silver) after break trend never open reverse posation , for example in next hours if gold break trend , NEVER open sell (dont pick your sell signals , gold after break trendl like caw can 300$ (30.000 pip) can go up witout pullback now gold has powerful buystop on high ,sl=low and sellstop on it if you have open sell , you must put SL on today high (instead put buystop) 1901 or 1921 break mean + trend start
FX:XAUUSDLong
by ramin_trader2006
GOLD Trading Analysis Before COMEX OpensIt is crystal clear that the gold is ranging in an inclined corridor (see the two inclined lines) + the prices are below the VWAP (for the moment). Since there is no volume the minute I type this, it is difficult to predict exactly what is going to happen. But here are the only 2 scenarios: First, the market will break the range from above with a strong volume + break the VWAP. In this case, the prices will potentially reach the previous strong resistance (sii the horizontal line). The second scenario is to bump into the VWAP and continue the down-trend, this will result that the prices will certainly reach the previous range (see the blue rectangle). Strategy I will personally wait for the American session to open, to observe the first impulse volume. Once the volumes are here we should see the behavior of the market with the VWAP and with the "micro-resistances" (breaking it or bumping into it). Then initiate a trade when all the elements are present. Remember, we think in terms of probabilities, the market could be irrational, however, we tend to explain it and analyze the most probable scenarios.
COMEX:GC1!
by Jalal_ASFAJ
Gold Forecast – Real Or False Breakout?A few weeks ago we had a look into Gold cycles, Intermarket forecasts, and COT. At that moment gold was flagging. As you know it usually follows this pattern very well. But it doesn’t mean always. The current breakout wasn’t qualified as we didn’t have a downclose candle prior to the breakout candle. Moreover, in 2012 we had a similar situation and it was a false breakout. So, I want to see more price action to figure out what is happening. In case, this breakout turns to be real, the market will target 2600 in 1 – 3 years. With all that in mind, let’s have a closer look into smaller time frames. Last week the price tested the 1856 level. It was previously a strong resistance. So, no surprise price found support there. The 4h MA200 is at 1837. Technically it should be enough to build a base and start a new wave to the upside with targets 1932 and 1960. This pattern is valid till the price holds above 1800. If this level fails, the bears could take control of this market.
COMEX:GC1!
by Inna-Rosputnia
Go for the Gold and go long.You can see that gold took a very big down move today. I think this is a retrace and not a trend. So I think this is where you can buy gold on sale. You can see that gold price now in gray rectangle and has broken out of the parallel channel. Also look at gray rectangle and you can tell that top is a support and my bottom is demand zone. Once below my demand zone then I think my theory of going up more is wrong. This is the opposite of normal conservative and aggressive entry. You can see that conservative is more profit goal, but less chance of entry (and because of this less chance of any loss = conservative entry). Aggressive entry is lower target more chance of entry (and because of this more chance for loss = aggressive entry). I have not taken entry yet because I don’t know yet what kind of entry I want. I am going to sit on my entry for a couple of hours and see what I feel. I change to black, white, grey and yellow chart because I am color blind and I easily mix up other colors. Lots of Irish people are for some reason. Sorry for the dull colors! Let me know what you think and I love thumbs up and comments! ❤️ Ms Bunny. See my other long gold strategy. It worked out good! (See link below)
COMEX:GC1!Long
by UnknownUnicorn11430563
8
take a look at gold relationship markets on NFP news day note=above chart not in USD ,in percent % in next hour dxy on trend touch can go down ,then up, break trend go upper=gold go down us 10 year yield must go little up if news not comes =gold go down gold futures still want touch 1850 trend = gold can zigzag some hour ,even little go up then in wave 2 go down to touch trend then fly up( after touch 1850 trend ,on go up NEVER NEVER pick sell signals until 1960) if you have sell your tp must be 1-2$ above big trend (1850) +buylimit for hold 7-8 day to min 1920-1960
FX:XAUUSDShort
by ramin_trader2006
3
doji comes on gold : i belive must start down trend to 1850 you can see AC is red from 4 days ago we dont advice sell on gold but now but you can sellstop on 1887 with sl on 1901 (break 1900 can shoot gold to next target 1960 so 100% put SL,dont remove in next hours,next days good US GDP 6.4% must push dollar index up ,gold to 1850 ALERT=break high will cancel above scenario ,so put buystop( sl=1887 trailstop=8.00$ )on high is good idea too secret:gold traders in 1:00GMT to 12:00GMT europe morning must monitor eurusd and germany index dax FDAX1! too (gold always move against dax in mornings , dow in evenings) note=my main instrument from 2006 is dax ,it is zigzag market ,completly difrant world,maner from gold ...i analyse many instruments,but i only pick dax (95% of my posation) and gold (5%) ,dont think i trade on all ,work on 1 thing better than many instrument ,be pro on 1 thing ,in my idea gold futures GC1! (or gold cfd XAUUSD) is easiest instrument in world ,you need just inter trend ,dont pick reverse ,dont use levrage above 10 max 20 put sl on 15min chart high/low good luck
FX:XAUUSDShort
by ramin_trader2006
5
2 scenario can comes on gold AC accelator on daily chart is red ,this mean seller can comes (trend -) AC on 1hour chart is green can 1-2 candel move up ,when it turn red,can push gold downer 2 scenario for today can comes 1-touch 1885 then fly up (buylimit with sl=low 1872 trailstop=10.00$) 2- break 1880 and go to 1850(buylimit place) if this buy open,hold it 10-20 day until 1960 or above (our target is 2400$) we strangly advice be carefull from sell ,very risky 100% put SL and dont remove,each second gold can fly up wild for pro traders with above 7 year exprience : for next days we belive germany index dax FDAX1! can fly up to 15800 -16000 ,,,,in downer price silver have buy too , bitcoin after break 42000 have l(ongterm hold) buy ....monitor them good luck
FX:XAUUSD
by ramin_trader2006
1
buy pressure on gold is very high do you see how gold is very trendy? it love go up up up witout pullback (+ move) see july 2020 1 hour chart exactly for next days you must set these buylimits with sl=6.00$ (AC daily is red, 10-20$ down crash possible) in 1920-1960 we have powerfull sellimit too ,but we dont advice reverse posation on gold , if you want pick them be know winrate is 50% and 100% put sl and trailstop=6.00$ (if reach SL DONT REMOVE IT) gold can go up wild to above 2100(it is not zigzag market) advice=looking buy in deep buy with SL how inter buy gold? wait AC on daily chart turn green ok? whenAC 1hour go down ,full red ,you can buystop on 15min chart last high (or last 1hour candel high) SL=4-5 pip under last low TP= 3*SL alert= this stratgy 100% need SL ,you must eat 5sl 5tp is normal ,it need min 3 month practice on demo to find its secrets,reactions good luck
FX:XAUUSDShort
by ramin_trader2006
1
It’s About Time Gold!I have been in an position for gold for longer than I like to. You can see my original plan here: and paste in link below. Finally hit the target today. It went to according to my plan but it took longer than thought. I had to sweat out some time as I see it fall back and go up and repeat. But it did hold my support line all the time which is why I didnt give up. And now it pay off. Now it will be interesting to see what will be next for gold. If you traded with me I hope you mad a good profit to. Please let me know if you did this trade. Ms. Bunny. ❤️
COMEX:GC1!Long
by UnknownUnicorn11430563
8
important levels on gold most important levels you must save in your mind 2070 2150 2333 2700 all above number have high winrate sellimit(but with sl=6.00$) on current chart : look to chart , if you see AC (or stoch 7.4.4) full green,going to red , this will move gold down in next 10 day (if buyer pressure be high ,can zigzag,range gold this week) until AC daily go down,full of red bar,you can buy gold and hold it until AC go up ,full green,3-4 green bar in up (close signal) if buyer pressure on news go up and gold can break high 1890-1900 , above normal scenario will cancel and gold can fly up note=AC created by Bill williams is like stochastic movment secret= on gold,silver (i think on forex too,not sure) AC on 1hour + daily chart is important on dax index FDAX1! , nasdaq,dow AC on 30min+4hour chart is important (on dax my stratgy is with AC 30-240min ,in 10 pos i eat 4sl 6tp , my tp =3*sl) for trade gold AC and SMA200(simple movin avrage) on 1hour and daily chart is enough (and draw important support+trendlines),DONT USE INDICATORS GIVE YOU REVERSE SIGNAL like bollinger bond,RSI ,,,,gold is VERY VERY TRENDY ,when go up ,will go up more like cow ( not zigzag like dax) for metatrader4 4xone.com
COMEX:GC1!Long
by ramin_trader2006