Speculators’ net short U.S. dollar
The move is in - easier to go long at this point than try to short the US Dollar or by proxy every other currency pair featuring the USD. At worse you know where to put your stops.
After today's move away from the precipice the decades long trendline continues to hold. TVC:DXY
The mainstream media in this case Reuters has been reporting this for months. This record short position is the fuel longs need to take the USD higher.
If the US Dollar does move higher expect Silver and Gold to come off.
For now if you're looking to go short - I would let the trendline break before entering.
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Speculators’ net short U.S. dollar positioning soared to the highest since August 2011, according to calculations by Reuters and U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data released on Friday.
The value of the net short dollar position hit $24.27 billion in the week ended July 28, from net shorts of $18.81 billion the previous week.
Reporting by Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss July 31, 2020 / 4:23 PM
GC
GC1 Gold Futures (Buy Signal)Probability: 80%
Read Carefully
The market will keep going up
Take profit & Stop loss: montioned on the chart
If the Green Candle Cut the TP line with Force => use the Yellow line as a Resistance + New Take Profit 2.
If the Green Candle Cut the Yellow Line With Force => Use Orange Line as A resistance + TP3 and use the Yellow Line as a Support.
Note: All Tp & SL ( Manually) and i follow my own strategy to Close the trade
Gold - possible ABC correctionThe price of gold after a strong rally has been creating a potential corrective movement that could be labeled as ABC. The correction occurs after a significant price increase so there could be a stronger pullback (approximately 15%).
Currently, after the potential wave A and wave B the wave C may appear. However, it could happen only after a trendline breakout. If the line is broken we may expect a decline to the 100% Fibo expansion or to the previous resistance at 1788 USD.
It seems that only a move above the upper limit in a downward channel may be an indicator for the end of the correction.
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Daniel Kostecki, Chief Analyst Conotoxia Ltd.
Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
79% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Gold - key spot for the metalKey time for OANDA:XAUUSD and GC1! , as gold continues to consolidate inside the triangle.
Breakout above resistance at ~1970 would indicate strong possibility of trend continuation and new ATH.
However, if support levels are not held, risk of much stronger and deeper pullback to at least ~1700$ is likely to be starting
Somewhat similiar logic can be applied to OANDA:XAGUSD as well right now
Technical expectation of gold retracement signals for next weeksSince the gold has corrected the increasing behavior last 3 weeks, the harmonic pattern tells us that It may retrace to the 0.382 Fibonacci level (The Fibonacci that works well when spotting the highs and bottoms), and join some previous supports and resistances ( the orange line is the mainline that tells us the history of gold for 20 years ).
This is a pure technical analysis, the gold could continue the increasing behavior ( due to speculation bubbles especially after the interest of Warren Buffet recently on gold)
GC1 GOLD FUTURES (15MIN) Buy SignalPlease Read it carefully
Probability:
- 80% for the TP 1
65% for The TP 2
55% TP3
The market will keep going up
stop loss: The orange line ( close it manually)
Take profit:
If the Candle cut with Force the first resistance ( Green line) => New Take profit 2 , if not: Take profit.
if the candle cut with Force the Yellow line ( TP 2) => the GC1 may touch the Blue line, if not TP.
Gold - correction below 2000 USDThe price of gold has surged recently. The move seems to be too fast in a too short time which could lead to a larger correction. Looking at the chart it seems that the market has broken an upper limit in an upward channel which has been creating since 2 years. Currently, the price may move back again inside the channel.
In percentage terms, the market may retreat by about 10 percent from the record high. The next potential support may be located at 1788 USD. However, in the longer-term after the correction, the price of gold may continue an upward trend.
________
Daniel Kostecki, Chief Analyst Conotoxia Ltd.
Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
79% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
the GOLD behavior could quickly occur! (trading)Hi Traders, today the gold is confused in a trading range in the VWAP.
Focus on volumes that will determine whether or not the trend would be below (bearish trade) the VWAP or above (bullish trade).
Also, the rectangle I drew in the end, once broken, you have the best signal of trading.
Good luck!
Will the gold continue to break historical records?For the next close days, I'm bullish on the Gold: there are still some buying volumes+ more than breaking the historical high in 2011, the gold broke the history line (orange line). So the market can go find the 78.6% Fib Level (2135), and correct after it.
However, the last weekly candle is showing a long upper shadow, which means that sellers are here (or ancient buyers are taking profits), so a correction is expectable due to the sharp increase of the market. Moreover, a negative divergence is observed in the RSI, so a correction may be approaching.
Let's focus on the volumes!
09/08/2020 GBPCAD - WEEKLY PLAY LONG TF H4Welcome,
Below you will find our trading notes:
Monthly view - CONSOLIDATION
Weekly view - BULLISH
Daily view - BULLISH
Previous week LOW - 1.7350
Previous week HIGH - 1.7705
Previous week profile - BEARISH
News this week:
12/08 TUE - 8.00
13/08 WED - 8.00
Where to focus:
LONG SIDE SETUPS ONLY
LIQUIDITY BELOW : 1.7350
SUPPORT STRUCTURE : 1.7323 -> 1.7365
SUPPORT LOWER STRUCTURE : 1.7279 -> 1.7307
LIQUIDITY ABOVE : 1.7675
RESISTANCE STRUCTURE : 1.7700 -> 1.7850
Weekly scenario:
We expect pullback to one of our defined support structures, where we'll look for entries long, or just straight upside push.
If it push straight up, then we will wait for pullback to jump in,
If first support structure is broken, then we focus on entries on the lower support structure.
If second support structure is broken, we will move to side lines.
If we'll see push from our long side zones, then first TP is 1.7575 but over all target is 1.7700+
Protection strategy:
SL up to 30 pips below support structure
REMEMBER!
NEVER BE GREEDY AND DON"T FALL INTO EMOTIONS :)
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HAVE AN AMAZING DAY!
ENJOY
historical high predictable from 1980! 2222.3, why not?I show you here the complete history of gold since1980 till 2020. After a long calm market, the gold (known as a safe investment when the inflation comes) began an uptrend behavior since the crisis showed up.
Today with historical highs, The Fibonacci extension shows a possibility that gold could continue till 2223.3, we need to focus on volumes because a correction is still a possibility, and I have shown (in yellow) the obstacles or correction levels of gold.
Uptrend analysis of gold (Weekly & Daily Charts) (GC)
The gold broke the last historical high 61.8% level of Fibonacci extension (weekly chart).
The next target is 78.6% Fibonacci Level.
However, I believe that there will be a correction because of the sharp uptrend on the daily chart, but it won't affect the increasing behavior.
GoldCartel - Potential bullish pennantQuite sketchy, but I reckon there's a possibility of forming a bullish pennant. This analysis fails if it can break out and close above the 1981 zones.
Catalyst USD:
- Goods Trade Balance -70.6B
- Prelim Wholesale Inventories m/m -2.0%
- Pending Home Sales m/m 16.6%
- Crude Oil Inventories -10.6M
- Federal Funds Rate <0.25%
I sent these charts below to my client's to trade FOMC a few hours ago. It was a quick trade, less than 2 hours of trade. 1973-75 down to 1950, rinse and repeat.