Gc1
INTRADAY SHORT CHANCE we expect another impact on gold we expect good an opportunity for short
just we have to follow the instructions
this is not financial advice that was my won analysis of my view any design you take under your own responsibility
GOLD → Fundamental Swing. What to expect from gold?FX:XAUUSD updates the low to 2643. The reason - change of fundamental background and outflow of funds to safer assets... But, Powell supported the metal by lowering the US interest rate....
Overall, the fundamental backdrop for gold has changed to negative. The impact is not short-term and can only increase further, but the metal will be supported by the Chinese market and the Middle East conflict. Yesterday gold strengthened to 2710, testing key resistance on the back of 0.25% interest rate cut. Powell gave a hint that the Feds are generally willing to continue the easing course. The environment is quite interesting...
Technically, gold is in a local descending channel and below 0.5 Fibo. If the bears keep the 0.5 - 0.7 fibo zone under their control, gold may continue to weaken towards 2650 - 2600.
Resistance levels: 2696, 2714, 2720
Support levels: 2685, 2652
Technically, after a busy week, the metal may go into a consolidation phase, for example in the area of 2714 - 2685, but it is still worth paying attention to resistance and support from which strong moves can be formed...
Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ FX:XAUUSD ;)
Regards R. Linda!
FOMC and Powell support GOLD, bearish outlook still prevailsOANDA:XAUUSD Spot trading rose nearly 2% yesterday when the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as market predicted, causing the US Dollar to plunge and giving gold a boost.
The Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points on Thursday, while policymakers noted a "broad deterioration" in the job market. Officials voted unanimously to lower the federal funds rate to a range of 4.5%-4.75%. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Trump's presidential election victory will not directly affect monetary policy.
Federal Reserve interest rate cuts have put pressure on the US dollar and bond yields, while boosting the investment appeal of non-yielding gold.
FOMC content
In their monetary policy statement, officials acknowledged the economy is growing steadily despite slowing labor market conditions. They admitted inflation was close to the Fed's 2% target but still remained slightly high.
Fed policymakers also noted that the risks to achieving their dual mandates were “roughly balanced” but acknowledged uncertainty about the economic outlook.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement said: "The Committee believes that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are balanced and that there is uncertainty about the economic outlook. The Committee concerned about the risk of achieving his dual mandate."
While policymakers noted “progress” in achieving the inflation target, they neglected to mention “becoming more confident that inflation can move steadily toward 2 percent.” sustainable”.
“Labour market conditions have generally eased since the beginning of this year, with the unemployment rate rising but remaining low,” the Fed statement said.
Powell said the election results would not affect decision-making in the short term and that there was flexibility in future policy direction.
At his post-FOMC press conference, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell avoided giving specific guidance on the future direction of interest rates, leaving room for flexibility at the December meeting and beyond. He emphasized that because the economy is strong, the Fed can take its time lowering interest rates. He acknowledged that even after Thursday's rate cut, policy remains restrained as officials aim to return interest rates to neutral levels.
Regarding the pace of interest rate cuts, Powell said if the labor market weakens or slows as it approaches neutrality, the Fed could accelerate the pace of interest rate cuts. However, he clarified that no final decision has been made yet.
Powell also said that in the short term, the presidential election results will not directly affect monetary policy.
General assessment
The Fed's 25 basis point cut boosted gold prices, on the other hand, Powell made very clear statements about the possibility and prospect of cutting interest rates and this is not beneficial for the US Dollar.
A very basic knowledge is that the US Dollar is controlled by the Fed and not under the power of the US President. Therefore, even in the event that Trump is elected and boosts the US Dollar, it will still be restrained by the policy of cutting interest rates. Only if Trump can completely eliminate the Fed will the US Dollar have nothing to show for it. prevent. Of course, this is without precedent, nor has any President been able to do this.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
Although gold has recovered strongly from the 0.618% Fibonacci level confluence with the lower edge of the channel, it is still in a downtrend with the price channel as the short-term trend.
On the other hand, gold's upward momentum has also been limited by the EMA21 level, and it still has enough bearish conditions when the Relative Strength Index is also showing signs of folding down from the 50 level area.
If gold falls below the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level, it will have the potential to fall a bit further with a short-term target of around 2,684 USD rather than 2,668 USD.
However, in case gold moves above the EMA21 level it will tend to increase further to test the 0.236% Fibonacci level. Therefore, for open selling positions should be protected above EMA21 quite "strictly."
During the day, gold still has a bearish technical outlook with notable points listed as follows.
Support: 2,684 – 2,668USD
Resistance: 2,700 – 2,710USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2736 - 2734⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2740
→Take Profit 1 2729
↨
→Take Profit 2 2724
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2676 - 2678⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2672
→Take Profit 1 2683
↨
→Take Profit 2 2688
GOLD established a falling structure after a sharp declineOANDA:XAUUSD Spot delivery is basically stable after yesterday's plunge. The current gold price is about 2,660 USD/ounce. Previously on Wednesday (November 6), after Trump was elected President of the United States, investors rushed to buy US Dollar, OANDA:XAUUSD plummeted to its lowest level in 3 weeks.
As sent to readers in many articles about the election of Trump, a shock decline in gold is inevitable because Trump's "steering wheel" will support the Dollar from general economic policies.
Trump's victory will boost the dollar as he is expected to propose new tariffs that could cause a spike in inflation and cause the Federal Reserve to pause its easing cycle.
Fed decision upcoming
After cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in September, the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points this time.
The US economic calendar today (Thursday) will focus on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision. The Fed is expected to reduce borrowing costs by 25 basis points to a range of 4.50%-4.75%.
Trump and the Fed
Trump's economic policy proposes imposing taxes, increasing the fiscal deficit, and reducing taxes. His economic advice conflicts with the Fed's anti-inflation policy. Therefore, the Fed will be forced to take a very cautious approach when loosening monetary policy.
The risk of rising inflation after Trump introduced new taxes could slow the pace of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. This is very important because Trump and the Fed are becoming opposing, it is likely that Trump will destroy all previous efforts of the Fed to curb inflation.
For more than 70 years, the Federal Reserve has operated as an independent government agency in the United States, but this tradition may soon be overturned. After declaring victory on Wednesday (November 6), Donald Trump is preparing to talk about "interest rates" after taking office in January 2025, insisting his intuition is better than the Chairman of the Reserve Federal Powell.
For more than 70 years, the US central bank has operated as an independent government agency. When officials meet to decide interest rates, they will not need to consult with the president and other elected officials. That's because, as the former Fed chairman famously said, “The job of the central bank is to get rid of the drinking bowl just as the party is getting started.”
In other words, they have to make unpopular decisions that ultimately seek to bring long-term benefits to the economy. However, once President-elect Trump returns to the White House, the independence the Fed has maintained for many years could be compromised.
Trump's statement was posted on CNN: “I think the president should at least have a say. I feel very strongly,” Trump said about the Fed's interest rate decision at a press conference in August.
Trump added: “I make a lot of money, I'm very successful and I think in many situations I have better abilities than the people at the Fed or the president.”
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
After yesterday's strong price drop, gold has all the technical conditions to decrease in price through the price channel. The fact that gold was sold below the price channel and the 21-day moving average (EMA21) caused the bullish price structure to be completely broken.
Currently, gold is recovering slightly after receiving support from the 0.618% Fibonacci retracement level, and once this level is further broken below, gold tends to continue to decline with a subsequent target level of around 2,600 USD around the 0.786% Fibonacci retracement area.
On the other hand, the Relative Strength Index continues to point downward after breaking the 50 level, which should be considered a negative signal for gold as the RSI's next target is 25. Showing that the downward momentum remains quite wide in the front.
In the near future, technically, gold has the potential to decrease in price with the price channel being the short-term trend.
As long as gold remains in the price channel and below the EMA21 level, the bearish outlook will still be prioritized, and the notable points will be listed as follows.
Support: 2,640 – 2,645USD
Resistance: 2,668 – 2,684 – 2,697USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2708 - 2706⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2711
→Take Profit 1 2701
↨
→Take Profit 2 2696
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2637 - 2639⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2633
→Take Profit 1 2644
↨
→Take Profit 2 2649
XAUUSD 1day MA50 and Channel bottom tested and held. Strong buy.Gold / XAUUSD hit today the 1day MA50 for the first time since August 5th 2024.
This isn't just a 3 month test of the rising supporting trend line but also a test of the bottom of the 5 month Channel Up.
The 1day RSI hit and is rebounding on its own 5 month Buy Zone.
This is a textbook buy signal on very low risk (Channel Up bottom limit).
Buy and target 2840 (+7.50% from the low, a standard bullish leg rise within this Channel Up).
Previous chart:
Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
GOLD → U-turn and fall... Waiting for Powell (Fed)FX:XAUUSD is forming a reversal setup with a bias for the medium and long term. The fundamental background is changing in favor of the dollar at the expense of gold, as well as changing the targets...
Trump is the new (old) president of the United States. What does that mean? Rising inflation, a rising dollar, stock market and bonds are possible, but not gold or currency markets. But because Trump's policies promise to be tough on China and Europe, gold may get additional support from investors, but not in the near term, perhaps not in the next year. What are the targets to gold going forward? 2400, 2300, 2200. 2K is not excluded.
Now all eyes are on the Fed rate meeting later on Thursday. Will they cut 0.25% or keep the rate the same? The important aspect in that case is the regulator's comments and hints (slowing down the easing cycle is not ruled out). Waiting for Powell...
Technically, gold is returning to the range, so the focus is on the internal levels and the key 0.5 fibo, from which the decline may resume
Resistance levels: 2670, 2685, 2696
Support levels: 2652 (trigger), 2637, 2624
A correction after the spill is being formed. False breakdown and subsequent consolidation below the above resistance levels will be a signal for the continuation of the fall
Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ FX:XAUUSD ;)
Regards R. Linda!
Gold Update: Post-Election WeaknessThe price of gold typically drops after U.S. elections, and this time is no different.
This weakness coincides with the expected wave count on the chart, as Wave 4 correction was anticipated. (see related)
Wave 3 is extended, and so is sub-Wave 5 within it, which is a common pattern for commodities.
Wave 4 has now begun, and there are two ways to measure its potential target:
1. Wave 4 typically retraces Wave 3 by around 38.2%.
2. The trend channel formed through the peaks of Wave 1 and Wave 3, and the valley of Wave 2, suggests a potential bottom for Wave 4.
This chart shows an amazing alignment of these two factors: the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement is at $2,428, and the bottom of the channel is around $2,450. These levels provide a strong double support for gold prices.
The final upward impulse should at least retest the all-time high of $2,802 (the peak of Wave 3).
The Cup & Handle pattern (see related ideas) has a target of $3,000.
GOLD → Global reversal H&S. How far do we fall? FX:XAUUSD was looking pretty steady in the Asian session until the press came out with their statements before Trump's speech. The fundamental background is weakening, but there are positive nuances from the news....
There is one last vote left, but Trump has a 99% chance of winning.
Markets believe his policies will put upward pressure on inflation, treasury yields and the US dollar, which could have an overall negative impact on the XAU
BUT, there is a possibility that in the long term, the gold price will also benefit from the new president's policies as Trump's foreign policy related to China and Europe could cause unrest and panic in the market
Sentiment around the US election will play a key role in gold price movement ahead of the US Fed policy announcement due on Thursday.
Technically, gold is giving hints of a possible reversal by forming a classic H&S pattern. The main support is at 2708
Resistance levels: 2731, 2735, 2749
Support levels: 2724, 2713, 2708, 2689
Also, H1 is starting to show a local descending channel. Before the official verdict of the vote, the price can still test these resistance areas, but later the market may turn around and start a gradual decline until the end of market-wide euphoria....
Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ FX:XAUUSD ;)
Regards R. Linda!
Ready for the US election, GOLD still fluctuates quite modestlyOANDA:XAUUSD volatile without a clear trend, as uncertainty over the US election has fueled market expectations of a controversial outcome and possible political tensions, while investors also Close attention should be paid to the Federal Reserve this weekend during their monetary policy meeting.
The US presidential election takes place on Tuesday, with polls showing Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and Republican candidate Donald Trump in a tight race for the White House.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll last month showed public fears that the US could repeat the riots that followed Trump's 2020 election loss, when hundreds of people stormed the country after he claimed that his defeat was due to fraud in Congress.
If Trump wins, I think gold will fall then rise quickly again because a Trump win will benefit the Dollar and a stronger Dollar means gold will be under direct correlation pressure. However, we will not forget that under Trump, the tariff war and his policies created a long period known as the “Trade War”, which has caused gold prices to increase ever since. up to now.
Another focus this week is the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on Thursday, with markets expecting a 25 basis point rate cut. Gold is considered a hedge against economic and political instability and often performs well when interest rates are low.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold has reached the support level most recently noticed by readers in the previous issue at the horizontal support level of 2,725 USD.
There has been a slight recovery as of the time this article was completed, but the level of recovery is not significant as the operating amplitude is still very slow while the downward RSI has not been reached yet. level 50, level 50 is considered a support or resistance point depending on the RSI's movement conditions.
In the short term, if gold moves above 2,745 USD, the resistance point you noticed in the previous publication, it will have the conditions to continue to increase further with a target of around 2,768 USD in the short term. , more than the 2,786USD price point of the 0.50% Fibonacci extension.
In a more negative case, gold breaks below 2,725 USD, it is likely to decline further with a target of 2,709 USD in the short term more than the original price of 2,700 USD which is also the price point of the 21-day moving average EMA21. Therefore, the short-term long-term protection level should be set behind the level of 2,725 USD, in the longer-term case the long-term open position protection level should be set behind the original price level of 2,700 USD.
In the immediate future, gold still has an upward trend in the medium and long term with support for the above mentioned price increase, and notable points will be listed as follows.
Support: 2,725 – 2,709 – 2,700USD
Resistance: 2,745 – 2,768 – 2,786USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2777 - 2775⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2781
→Take Profit 1 2770
↨
→Take Profit 2 2765
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2703 - 2705⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2699
→Take Profit 1 2710
↨
→Take Profit 2 2715
GOLD is waiting for more information from the electionOANDA:XAUUSD Still waiting for more information from the US Presidential election for a medium-term trend, investors need to prepare for political tensions after polls showed Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are both tied. each other on scores. The presidential election still has a very high possibility of a controversial result, and remember that in the 2020s when Trump lost the race for the White House, there were many riots in the US. protests led to mild political tensions.
With the tight race between former President Trump and Vice President Harris for control of the U.S. Congress at stake, in the event the result is unclear or controversial, this could aggravate further political instability.
Trump has repeatedly said that any defeat can only come from widespread fraud, echoing his claims in 2020. If the margins in key states are as close as expected, there is It may take several days to know the final winner.
Additionally, the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 25bps on Thursday, following a sharp cut in September, while adding to US interest rate cuts this year.
Gold is considered a hedge against economic and political instability and tends to perform strongly when interest rates are low. This has helped gold gain nearly 33% this year so far.
Analyze technical prospects OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold's technical structure has not changed much. For more than 3 trading sessions, it has mainly moved sideways, because there has been no sudden impact from the fundamental factors.
Support at $2,725 helped gold recover yesterday but the RSI is still pointing down without reaching the nearest support level at 50. This shows that gold can still A little more bearish, and once the $2,725 support level is broken below it will be open to a little more downside with a target then around $2,709 – $2,700.
However, on the daily chart overall, gold still has conditions to increase with the main long-term price channel supporting the uptrend and the same with the medium-term price channel. The most notable support is the EMA21 level which is also keeping gold above it.
During the day, gold's main technical outlook is bullish with notable technical points listed as follows.
Support: 2,725 – 2,709 – 2,700USD
Resistance: 2,745 – 2,768 – 2,786USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2777 - 2775⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2781
→Take Profit 1 2770
↨
→Take Profit 2 2765
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2703 - 2705⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2699
→Take Profit 1 2710
↨
→Take Profit 2 2715
GOLD → The SMAs are hinting that it's about time ... News!FX:XAUUSD is forming a phase of correction, the reason for which is the change of fundamental background. The pressure from sellers is increasing, and the market is forming a key support at this time...
Disappointing NFP data was offset by hot wage inflation data. The U.S. labor market report failed to deter dollar buyers as it had limited impact on market pricing in Fed meeting expectations. Which had a negative impact on the price of gold...
All eyes are now on the US presidential election on November 5, and the outcome of the Fed meeting on Thursday. Markets believe that Trump's policy will put upward pressure on inflation, bond yields and the dollar, while if Harris wins, the dovish policy will continue.
Technically, traders are taking a wait-and-see approach. The price is forming a range, and most likely gold will trade inside this channel in the near term
Resistance levels: 2745, 0.5 and 0.7 Fibo, 2758
Support levels: 2731, 2724, 2713
SMAs are tending towards each other, which could be a mixed reaction from traders. Markets are prioritizing a Republican victory, in fact, this could intensify gold's correction. But the denouement of the presidential race is tomorrow! For now, the focus is on the flat boundaries!
Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ FX:XAUUSD ;)
Regards R. Linda!
GOLD → The US election and how does XAUUSD depend on it?FX:XAUUSD is waiting for strong news. The price continues to test and even update local lows, but in the next 1-2 days you need to be careful as high volatility is expected.
The main issue on the agenda is the US presidential election. High volatility is expected. Until last week, markets were pricing in a Trump victory (his policies on immigration, tax cuts and tariffs will put upward pressure on inflation, bond yields and the US dollar). But on Monday, the situation showed a slightly different picture, with the odds of a Harris victory (opposite, successor, policies) rising
In addition, expectations of a less aggressive easing cycle from the Fed are also supporting the dollar.
Also, markets are taking into account the ongoing Middle East conflict between Israel and Iran.
Technically, the emphasis of the flat boundaries. While the price is trading inside, but most likely an attempt to get out of the accumulation will be formed....
Resistance levels: 2745, 2758
Support levels: 2731, 2724, 2713
Technically, gold continues to test support with the aim of retesting deeper liquidity zones below. But the risks are quite high right now. Gold is still feeling the support, so there could be unpredictable market reactions depending on the outcome!
Regards R. Linda!
GBPUSD technical bearish, eye on BoE MPCMarket expectations for the November 7 meeting
The Bank of England's (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will meet this Thursday, with 90% of market participants expecting interest rates to be cut by 25 basis points from 5% to 4, 75%.
This follows the central bank's first interest rate cut of 2024, which took place at the meeting ending on July 31, 2024. At this meeting, the MPC voted with a majority to reduce the Interest Rate Bank interest rate 0.25%, down to 5%.
Key economic indicators influence decisions
Recent data paint a complicated picture for BoE decision-makers. The current inflation index of 1.7% is lower than the bank's 2% target, so is no longer an immediate concern for the BoE.
According to the Office for National Statistics, the UK unemployment rate (for those aged 16 and over) is estimated to be 4.0% in June to August 2024 compared to 4.1% before there.
From June to August 2024, average annual employee regular earnings growth (excluding bonuses) is 4.9% and the region's average annual regular earnings growth public sector was 5.2%, down 5.7% compared to the same period three months ago; for the private sector it is 4.8%.
Global monetary policy context
The US Federal Reserve (Fed) also meets this Thursday, with markets pricing a 25 basis point interest rate cut to 4.50%-4.75% with a probability of nearly 100%. This creates an interesting context for the BoE's decision as global central banks are increasingly shifting their focus from fighting inflation to supporting economic growth.
Analyze technical prospects OANDA:GBPUSD
On the daily chart, GPB/USD recovered from the lower edge of the price channel, however, the recovery was limited as the main trend of GBP/USD up to now is still a downtrend noticed by the channel. price.
GBP/USD is also under pressure from the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, the 1.30042 horizontal resistance level and the EMA21 moving average.
Even if GBP/USD manages to move above 1.30042, it still doesn't have much solid bullish conditions as there are other resistance levels above from 1.30448 and the confluence of the upper channel edge with the 0.382% Fibonacci.
As long as GBP/USD remains below Ema21 and within the price channel it remains technically bearish, while the Relative Strength Index is also close to 50, the 50 level being considered resistance when RSI is below this level.
During the day, the technical outlook for GBP/USD is bearish with the highlights listed below.
Support: 1.29073 – 1.28448
Resistance: 1.29842 – 1.30042 – 1.30448 – 1.30705
GOLD has corrected down, facing a BIG event weekOANDA:XAUUSD rose quickly after weak non-farm payrolls data, then fell sharply from highs above $2,760/ounce and finally closed lower, closing at around $2,736/ounce.
Gold prices quickly rose to 2,760 USD/ounce after the release of US non-farm payroll data, showing that only 12,000 new non-farm payrolls were added in October, much lower than the 113,000 expected. expected and much lower than in September. However, gold prices have since dropped and lost all of their price gains during Friday's trading day.
Hit by hurricanes and strikes by aerospace factory workers, U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by just 12,000 in October, the smallest increase since December 2020.
Other data from the nonfarm report showed the unemployment rate remained at 4.1% in October, in line with expectations, and the increase in average hourly wages last month increased to 4.0% compared to compared to the same period last year, in line with expectations and higher than the 3.9% revision in September.
Hourly earnings increased 0.4% month over month, above the forecast 0.3% and the revised 0.3%. The average number of working hours also increased to 34.3 hours, higher than expectations of 34.2 hours, but still equal to the previously adjusted increase.
As noted by readers in the short comments, it is very possible that gold's downward adjustment period is not over yet as Friday's economic data is considered very positive for gold. If it is "theoretically" correct, gold should increase sharply as soon as the data is released, but there are possibilities that the market has digested all the previous data or the data will react after more fundamental impacts. another version.
Therefore, I needed to warn about this phenomenon with short comments!
Tensions in the Middle East have helped limit gold's decline
The BBC reported that Hezbollah launched a rocket attack in northern Israel, killing seven people. It was the worst attack in months and dashed hopes of a ceasefire in the war in the Middle East.
There are too many risks ahead of the US election, as well as rumors about Iran retaliating against Israel. Polls show a tight race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris in next Tuesday's US presidential election.
Gold is a traditional hedge against economic and political instability and tends to thrive in low interest rate environments.
It must be noted once again that, although gold and the Dollar have been increasing together recently, it does not mean that this correlation has been lost. Gold and the US Dollar have a negative correlation and if Trump is elected, the US Dollar will continue to get stronger because of Trump's policy trends (This has been sent to readers in many publications), the US Dollar will be stronger. This means that gold will be subject to correlation pressure.
This week will be a trading week with many "huge" events with the Presidential election and the US Congress along with the monetary policy decision of the US Federal Reserve (Fed). It is expected to have a STRONG and DEEP impact on the gold market trend.
Economic data to watch out for this week
Monday: Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy decision
Tuesday: ISM Services PMI, US Presidential and Congressional elections
Thursday: Bank of England monetary policy decision, US weekly jobless claims, Federal Reserve monetary policy decision
Friday: University of Michigan preliminary consumer sentiment
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold has a 2-day bearish correction with the short-term uptrend temporarily lost as price activity falls below the price channel. However, this is not a negative thing because the nearest support at 2,725 USD still keeps gold above it.
The relative strength index is pointing down from the oversold area but has not yet reached the 50 level, the 50 level is considered the nearest support point in terms of momentum.
Although gold has adjusted down, in the overall picture it still has an uptrend with long-term and medium-term price channels and important support at the EMA21 level.
As long as gold remains above the EMA21 and within the price channel, it still has a bullish outlook and the notable points are listed below.
Support: 2,725 – 2,710 – 2,700USD
Resistance: 2,745 – 2,768 – 2,786USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2759 - 2757⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2763
→Take Profit 1 2752
↨
→Take Profit 2 2747
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2708 - 2710⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2704
→Take Profit 1 2715
↨
→Take Profit 2 2720
Natural Gas | Oil, Dollar, Silver, Gold Price ForecastNatural Gas stock Bulls PEPPERSTONE:NATGAS Support & Resistance Guide
AMEX:USO Oil Stock Forecast
TVC:DXY US dollar Stock Forecast
Gold OANDA:XAUUSD Stock Forecast
Silver OANDA:XAGUSD
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Nov 04 - Nov 08]This week, after rising to 2,790 USD/oz, OANDA:XAUUSD then continuously dropped sharply to 2,733 USD/oz and closed the week at 2,736 USD/oz.
According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US's October non-farm payrolls (NFP) report showed that the country only created 12,000 jobs, significantly lower than the forecast of 100,000 jobs due to the impact of the coronavirus pandemic. recent storms. Although the US economy created fewer jobs than expected, the country's unemployment rate in October remained unchanged at 4.1%.
Meanwhile, wage inflation increased. Specifically, average hourly earnings increased 0.4% last month, higher than the forecast of 0.3%. In particular, the US's basic Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index for October - the FED's favorite inflation measure - remained at a high level of 2.7%, unchanged from the level of July and October.
All of the above economic data show that the FED is in a difficult position when production activities decline sharply, the labor market weakens, but inflation remains continuously high.
However, many forecasts are likely that the FED will still cut interest rates by another 0.25% next week, but will cautiously announce the direction of interest rate cuts in the next meetings.
In addition to the FED meeting, next week there will also be the US Presidential election on November 5. According to forecasts of many experts, it is likely that Donald Trump will be re-elected as US President. If Mr. Trump becomes US President in the next term, he will impose strong tariffs on imported goods as promised during the election campaign. This will push inflation up, forcing the FED to delay interest rate cuts, and may even have to raise interest rates again.
Thus, next week's gold price is at risk of being double-impacted by the FED meeting and the US presidential election.
📌Technically, in the H4 chart, gold price still shows a clear uptrend when the price trades above the EMA89 moving average. Next week, if gold prices still trade above the 2720 threshold, we can expect gold prices to continue to maintain an upward trend. In case the price will return to a downward adjustment cycle if the 2710 support zone is broken, correspondingly in the H1 chart, the gold price forms a head and shoulders model. If this model is correct, the gold price will find its way back around mark 2650.
Notable technical levels are listed below.
Support: 2.700 – 2.710 – 2.720USD
Resistance: 2.786 – 2.768 – 2.745USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2776 - 2774⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2780
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2649 - 2651⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2645
GOLD prices fall under the weight of yields and exchange ratesWorld gold prices fell in the trading session on Friday (November 1) under pressure from rising US Treasury bond yields and the USD exchange rate. However, the need to hedge risks ahead of the US presidential election next week helps limit the decline in gold prices.
At closing, the spot price of gold in the New York market decreased by 7.9 USD/oz compared to the closing level of the previous session, equivalent to a decrease of 0.29%, to 2,736.5 USD/oz - according to data from the exchange.
World gold prices decreased by 0.44% this week. On Thursday, spot gold prices set an all-time record at more than 2,790 USD/oz.
The main source of downward pressure on gold prices this week is the increasing trend of US Treasury bond yields and the USD exchange rate.
The 10-year US Treasury bond yield increased nearly 10 basis points on Friday, reaching 4.382%, the highest in the past 4 months - according to data from CNBC news agency.
Yields increased due to falling bond prices as investors strongly sold US Treasury bonds ahead of the US presidential election next Tuesday. The reason leading to investors selling US debt is concerns about the increasing federal budget deficit whether Mr. Donald Trump or Ms. Kamala Harris are elected.
The Dollar Index, which measures the strength of the USD against a basket of six other major currencies, increased 0.33%, closing Friday's session at 104.32 points - according to data from MarketWatch. This week, the index increased by 0.06%, bringing the total increase in the past month to 1.75%.
The USD is increasing in value because this currency is also promoting its role as a safe investment channel in the context of the approaching US election.
GOLD → Background Change. Is it time for a correction?FX:XAUUSD is facing profit-taking and a strong correction after Thursday's news. From ATH, the metal is down 2% for the day. Today is an equally busy news day!
The stock and futures market declined quite a bit in yesterday's session. Most likely a reaction to rising inflation..... The data was quite unexpected. The election race is on the agenda. The main question is the pace of easing under this or that president.... At the moment the focus is on the NFP report, which will be released later Friday. It is expected that the economy added 109K new jobs in October and the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.1%.
Technically, gold is coming back under the strong 2760 level, this was confirmed by a retest early in the European session. The market may be interested in the imbalance zone and the approximate area of 0.5-0.7 fibo...
Resistance levels: 2758, 2771, 2789
Support levels: 2745, 2738, 2728
The fundamental background is changing and it is reflected in gold. The outflow of investments may continue. If the negative background intensifies, gold may fall lower after resistance retest, e.g. to 2724-2713. But, unpredictable data will renew interest in the metal, which may return to the range of 2760 - 2790
Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ FX:XAUUSD ;)
Regards R. Linda!
GOLD has conditions to increase with expectations of recoveryOn Thursday (October 31), some traders chose to take profits, causing gold prices to fall again, falling 2% and reaching a low of 2,731 USD/oz. As of the time of writing, Friday, November 1, gold has recovered to 2,746 USD/oz.
Safe-haven demand ahead of the US presidential election has pushed gold prices up for the fourth consecutive month, and gold prices have increased about 4% in the past month.
Previously, strong economic data released by the US increased market expectations that the Federal Reserve could cautiously cut interest rates in the coming months. Meanwhile, PCE data showed PCE inflation at 2.1% year-on-year, the lowest since early 2021 and slightly above the central bank's 2% target inflation rate.
Before the taper, gold prices had risen by more than a third this year due to central bank buying and safe-haven demand due to conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine. Uncertainty about the US presidential election has also highlighted the value of gold as a safe-haven asset.
In 2024, gold's gains are driven by economic uncertainty, central bank buying and geopolitical risks, especially in the Middle East. Gold prices are now entering a historic year as expected interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and central bank demand will further support gold prices.
Therefore, do not worry about price drops because in terms of fundamental long-term trends, gold is still strongly supported.
During this trading day, traders need to pay attention to the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) and October Unemployment Rate data.
Surveys predict 108,000 new jobs will be added, compared with 254,000 last month.
The Nonfarm payrolls measure the change in the number of people employed during the previous month, excluding agriculture. Job creation is a leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of economic activity.
Figures that are much higher than expected or equal to the previous period will be considered a positive signal for the USD and continue to add pressure to the gold downtrend. Meanwhile, data at or below is expected to support gold's return to the bullish cycle and the continuation of its long-term uptrend, ending the ongoing bearish correction.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, yesterday's correction caused gold to swing below the short-term rising price channel noted by the price channel on the chart.
However, gold is also approaching a notable support level sent to readers in yesterday's edition at $2,725 when gold has the conditions for a correction.
Although the price dropped significantly, the mid- and long-term trend is still bullish with specific conditions such as stable price activity in the price channel, stable activity above the EMA21 level.
During the day, if gold can hold above the 0.236% Fibonacci level, it will have the potential to increase further with a short-term target of about 2,768USD, the price point is the confluence of the lower edge of the channel © and the 0.382% Fibonacci level.
The expectation for the intraday trend is a recovery with a target level of around 2,768 USD, along with which notable price points will be listed as follows.
Support: 2,745 – 2,725USD
Resistance: 2,768USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2765 - 2763⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2769
→Take Profit 1 2758
↨
→Take Profit 2 2753
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2714 - 2716⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2710
→Take Profit 1 2721
↨
→Take Profit 2 2726
Gold Flashing Warning SignsGold Flashing Warning Signs: Why We’re Taking a Cautious Short Position
Today, our Commitment of Traders (COT) strategy triggered a short trade on gold. Yes, we know—shorting gold at all-time highs feels like swimming upstream. But if you’ve been with us long enough, you know we don’t follow the crowd. We follow the data. And the signals? Well, let’s just say they’re getting hard to ignore.
To clarify, this setup wasn’t made on a whim. We got the green light when key technical indicators—Momentum, the Detrended Price Oscillator (DPO), and the Commodity Channel Index (CCI)—all confirmed a bearish divergence on the Daily timeframe.
Here’s a closer look at what’s guiding our trade:
1. Commercial Traders Are on High Alert
Commercial players—those who deal with gold at its core—are positioned short like we haven’t seen in over three years. They’re the steady hands here, and their caution is hard to overlook. It suggests that even in a market frenzy, they’re seeing potential downsides others may not be watching.
2. Retail Speculators Are Leaning Long
While not at full extremes, small speculators are heavily positioned on the long side, nearing a six-month high. This confidence could mean trouble—when retail traders load up, it can mark the late stages of a rally. We’re paying attention to this; it’s a classic contrarian indicator.
3. Open Interest Is Surging—But Why?
Open interest in gold futures has been climbing steadily. That’s usually a good thing for bulls, but here’s the twist: large and small speculators have been driving this uptrend. If these buyers lose momentum, who’s left to push prices higher?
4. Sentiment Is Peaking—But Is It Too High?
Market sentiment is at a bullish extreme, with advisors optimistic about gold’s rally. High sentiment can be a double-edged sword. It often means there are few people left to buy, and that’s when reversals happen. It’s a classic market psychology moment—and we’re taking note.
5. Gold Is Pricey Relative to Treasuries
Using our WillVal indicator, we see that gold is hitting valuation peaks compared to treasuries. This isn’t an automatic sell, but it’s a signal that the precious metal might be pushing its limits.
6. ADX Shows Intense Momentum, But There’s Caution
Our ADX indicator is above 40, confirming strong momentum. But we’re cautious here—when the market gets this heated, we often see shifts. Combined with those commercial short positions and high investor sentiment, this momentum could be due for a reality check.
7. Bearish Spread Divergence Is Emerging
There’s divergence between the front-month and next-month gold contracts, a sign that underlying strength may be weakening. It’s a small detail, but one that hints the rally might be overextended.
8. Supplementary Indicators Aren't Looking Optimistic
Rounding things out, our Insider Acc/Dis, %R, and Stochastic indicators are all showing bearish signals. We don’t rely on these alone, but together, they reinforce the caution signals we’re already seeing.
The Bottom Line
Shorting gold during a run like this isn’t a decision we take lightly. But the COT data, market positioning, and sentiment suggest a cooling-off period could be near, and the trade was triggered today via the divergence on the daily. Markets have a way of humbling even the most confident predictions, so we approach this trade with an open mind and a healthy dose of caution.
If you’re interested in seeing how we analyze trades and approach market extremes, stay tuned.
GOLD is close to the current level of 2,758 USDOn Tuesday (October 29) in the Asian market, spot gold suddenly increased sharply in the short term. Gold price just touched 2,757.74 USD/ounce, setting a new intraday high and approaching the previous historical high.
Traders prepare to release key economic data that will help set the tone for the Federal Reserve's next policy decision. Although tensions in the Middle East appear to have cooled, the Uncertainty about the US election still supports gold prices.
The Fed will announce its interest rate decision at its two-day meeting starting November 6. Jobs and inflation data, as well as if the results of the US presidential election are contested, This could influence the Fed's decision.
The market still expects policymakers to cut interest rates by 25bps at their November meeting. Lower borrowing costs are typically positive for gold, which does not yield a yield.
According to CME's FedWatch Tool, the market expects the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points to be about 98.4%.
When the presidential election between Harris and Trump was still too close, gold had 3 consecutive weeks of increases despite the increase in US Treasury bond yields and the USD, which often puts pressure on precious metals, losing correlation. This describes both gold and USD as having separate supports.
According to the latest statistics from the China Gold Association, China's gold consumption decreased by 11.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2024 as high prices suppressed jewelry demand.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
Gold has had 3 consecutive days of increase and is heading for the 4th day of price increase after adjusting and taking support from the short-term price channel and the 1% Fibonacci level.
Currently, gold is close to the all-time peak set previously, once gold breaks the $2,758 level which is also the target increase since gold corrected down from this level, it will have enough room to continue. upside with the next target around 2,768USD in the short term, more than the 2,786USD price points of the Fibonacci 0.382% and 0.50%.
The relative strength index (RSI) is pointing up with no signs of weakness as it approaches the overbought area, suggesting that bullish momentum remains solid, and as long as gold remains within the channel it will continue to trend. short-term upward trend.
However, in case it is sold below 2,700 USD, it will open up expectations for a medium-term correction down cycle with the target at the area of the EMA21 moving average. In the current market context, this scenario is quite unlikely.
During the day, the bullish technical outlook for gold prices will be brought into focus again by the following notable levels.
Support: 2,745 – 2,741 – 2,725USD
Resistance: 2,758 – 2,768 – 2,786USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2774 - 2772⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2778
→Take Profit 1 2767
↨
→Take Profit 2 2762
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2730 - 2732⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2726
→Take Profit 1 2737
↨
→Take Profit 2 2742
Conditions for a correction cycle, pay attention to US PCEAt the time of writing on Thursday (October 31), spot gold was at 2,783 USD/ounce, after reaching a previous record high of 2,790 USD/ounce.
Gold prices rose nearly $13 on Wednesday as uncertainty over the US presidential election fueled safe-haven demand.
Today, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis will release the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for September, which is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation indicator and is expected to trigger a big fluctuations in the market.
It is expected that the US PCE price index in September is expected to increase by 0.2% over the previous month and 2.1% over the same period last year.
Surveys also show that the core PCE price index in the US in September is expected to increase 0.3% over the previous month and 2.6% over the same period last year.
Also on the same day, seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims in the United States for the week of October 26 will be released, expected to be 230,000, compared to 227,000 the previous week.
Following the release of the PCE data, investors will need to focus on the US nonfarm payrolls report on Friday.
The focus this week is on jobs data and if strong non-farm payrolls data will support the Federal Reserve to pause interest rate cuts in December. However, in case NFP data is lower than expected Expected results will be positive for gold prices. Details about this data will be sent to readers in tomorrow's publication. Today we will focus on US PCE data.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold corrected slightly from the area of the 0.50% Fibonacci extension you noticed in yesterday's edition and the temporary correction was not significant.
Maintaining below the 0.50% Fibonacci level gives gold the ability to decrease a bit more with a short-term target of around 2,768 - 2,770 USD where the price point of the 0.38% Fibonacci confluences with the upper edge of the price channel.
In terms of the main trend, gold still has a main trend of increasing prices, but in terms of market structure, gold has also had a long period of price increase where the market will not be able to move in a straight line. Therefore, traders need to be ready for downward corrections, and must also note that during the past 2 years, corrections of hundreds of prices or more have occurred quite frequently. This makes us (traders) have to adapt to the current market environment, the appropriate measures are still volume control and appropriate opening positions and strict protection levels.
Currently, if gold falls below the 0.382% Fibonacci level, it would open up a short-term correction with a near-term target around $2,745 as the RSI attempts to turn Go below Level too buy. RSI below is overbought so it is considered a negative signal for gold price.
During the day, the main outlook remains bullish but there are expectations for the above downside correction and notable comments are listed below.
Support: 2,770 – 2,768 – 2,757 – 2,745USD
Resistance: 2,786 – 2,790USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2803 - 2801⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2807
→Take Profit 1 2796
↨
→Take Profit 2 2791
BUY XAUUSD SCALPING PRICE 2756 - 2758⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2752
→Take Profit 1 2763
↨
→Take Profit 2 2768
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2749 - 2751⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2745
→Take Profit 1 2756
↨
→Take Profit 2 2761
