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GC1! (Gold Futures)

Gold Futures Hit $3,534 – Spot Lags by $100. What Could Mean?I don’t usually track Gold Futures every single day, but today a fellow trader drew my attention to something — and it’s impossible to ignore. Gold Futures just printed an all-time high at $3,534, while spot gold (XAUUSD) topped at $3,409 — a $120 spread at the peak, now narrowed to about $100 at the time of writing. A spread like this is highly unusual and, more importantly, unsustainable. By the time the August 27th contract expires, futures and spot must converge to the same price. That means one of two things is about to happen — and either way, the move would be explosive. 1. Bullish Scenario – Futures Are Right If the futures market is telling the truth, spot gold will have to accelerate higher to close the $100 gap. If XAUUSD stabilize above $3,400, the odds of a push toward its own ATH become significant — and the move could be fast and aggressive. ________________________________________ 2. Bearish Scenario – Futures Are Overreaching If futures are overshooting, they will have to correct — hard. From a technical standpoint, if spot will drop below $3,370, the door to a continuation is open toward at least $3,330 support. A 400-pip drop in spot could translate into at least a 1,000-pip drop in futures, bringing the spread back toward its more typical 20–30 range. ________________________________________ Why This Matters? Regardless of direction, $100+ spreads do not last. In the next three weeks, one side will be proven wrong, and the prices will snap back together. Looking back at this year’s price action, spot and futures have always mirrored each other with an average spread of 20-30usd, depending on conditions and expectation, and for example: • The spot ATH at $3,500 matches $3,509 in futures. • The May low was identical in both markets. This current divergence is the outlier — and it’s screaming that a major move is coming. ________________________________________ Bottom line: If futures are right, spot gold is about to rip higher. If spot is right, futures are about to collapse.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Mihai_Iacob
10
Gold explosion will be short livedThe price explosion in gold is solely due to the tariffs. I don’t even want to go into detail about what impact this will have on the USA. I’ll just say this much: I feel sorry for the American people, and it’s not their fault. And here, once again, we see the universal law of physics inherent in Median Lines/Forks at work. Right at the center line, the price will pull back and may drift toward the lower median line parallel, should the close occur below the center line. It seems as though the basic rules of arithmetic are a foreign concept to those in leadership. There is a belief that billions of dollars will now suddenly flow into the U.S. Treasury overnight — which is, of course, complete nonsense. If that were truly the case, the price of gold in London would have risen in step with the U.S. gold price. Instead, this madness will unfold as yet another act of monumental miscalculation, spreading across the U.S. economy and cementing the debt ledger as if it were the stone tablet of the Ten Commandments. Let us see what our Median Line/Fork framework will reveal over the coming days. …and I keep the world in my prayers, that peace may find its way into our thoughts.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by Tr8dingN3rd
2
GOLD spikes then falls rapidly, all conditions are bullishOANDA:XAUUSD prices surged after falling in the previous trading day, as Trump tariffs took effect and weak U.S. jobs data raised expectations of interest rate cuts, boosting safe-haven demand. OANDA:XAUUSD prices reversed course on Thursday, posting sharp gains as the latest U.S. jobs data showed a weakening labor market. Investors, therefore, increased their dovish bets as the Federal Reserve is expected to resume its easing cycle in September. The number of people filing for continuing unemployment benefits in the United States has hit a high not seen since November 2021, adding momentum to the Federal Reserve’s dovish stance. With inflation remaining high and the U.S. job market weak, the risk of stagflation has emerged. Data released by the U.S. Labor Department on Thursday showed that continuing unemployment claims rose by 38,000 to 1.97 million in the week ended July 26. The high level suggests that it is increasingly difficult for unemployed people to find new jobs. Initial jobless claims also rose to 226,000 last week, exceeding economists’ expectations. The data has bolstered market expectations for a Fed rate cut Last week, weak U.S. nonfarm payrolls data boosted expectations for a rate cut. According to data from Prime Market Terminal, traders see a 95% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the September meeting. Meanwhile, higher tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump took effect on Thursday, providing a tailwind for gold, Valencia added. Countries affected include Switzerland, Brazil and India, which have yet to reach a deal with Washington. Gold, a store of value in times of uncertainty, also tends to perform well in low-interest-rate environments. Milan joins Fed, adding pressure on Powell to cut rates US President Trump announced on Thursday that he will nominate Stephen Milan, currently chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, to serve on the Federal Reserve Board, replacing Kugler, who unexpectedly resigned last week. The news also helped push gold prices higher on Thursday. Trump said on social media Truth Social: "Stephen Milan will serve as the newly vacated seat on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors until January 31, 2026. He has been with me since my second term and his economic expertise is unmatched. He will do an outstanding job." Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD Gold currently has all the bullish conditions, specifically the gold price broke above the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level of $3,371 and tested the original price point, which is the target upside point of the $3,400 area. The $3,371 level becomes the nearest support at present, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows that there is still room for further upside ahead. As long as gold remains above the EMA21, it still has a bullish outlook in the short term. There are hardly any factors that suggest that gold can fall significantly, so the general trend in the short and medium term is bullish and the notable points will be listed as follows. Support: $3,371 - $3,350 Resistance: $3,400 - $3,430 - $3,450 SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3431 - 3429⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3435 →Take Profit 1 3323 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3317 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3339 - 3341⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3335 →Take Profit 1 3347 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3353
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
Gold at All-Time Highs – Blow-Off or Breakdown?Gold has just printed new all-time highs, but I’m approaching with caution. At these levels, everyone long is in profit — leaving no trapped buyers above and only liquidity for smart money to grab. We kicked off the session with an impulsive spike higher, but this may have been a stop run and liquidity sweep rather than the start of another leg up. If price struggles to hold above that spike or fails on a re-test, we could see sellers step in, targeting the 4H FVG zone below. For now, I’m watching: A possible revisit of yesterday’s high to “fix” lack of excess on the DOM London session reaction to today’s spike high Potential short setups if buy-side momentum stalls NY session might deliver the day’s best move, but we could see early opportunities in the Asian and London sessions if price confirms a shift in order flow. What do you think? Is this a blow-off top in the making, or do buyers have one more push?
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
by DWoodz
Gold Fails to Break Tuesday’s High – H4 FVG Still in SightGold continues to coil beneath Tuesday’s high, showing signs of failed bullish follow-through. Price attempted to press higher but couldn’t break out — a sign that sellers may still be in control. We’re still under key resistance at the Daily High, and that unfilled H4 Fair Value Gap below remains a prime draw. 🧠 My outlook: Expecting price to run back down toward the H4 FVG. Watching for a potential stop run above Tuesday’s high to clean up the lack of excess shown on the DOM. Anticipating the cleanest LONG setup might appear during NY session, but a solid entry could develop during Asian or London for a short if we see early signs of rejection. Key levels and reactions around D-H and the previous day’s high will be crucial. If the market tips its hand early, I’ll be looking to position short with that FVG as my magnet. Let me know if you're seeing something different. This feels like a setup that rewards patience and precision.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Short
by DWoodz
GOLD trades in narrow range, leading market pulseThe current market pulse is still mainly revolving around the Trump-initiated tariff story, with spot OANDA:XAUUSD trading in a fairly narrow range and currently reported at $3,376/oz, down 0.13% on the day. Gold is also awaiting further impact from the Fed's interest rate cut, with a weaker Dollar providing support for non-yielding gold. Tariff News Update US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday (August 5) that US tariffs on imported semiconductors and pharmaceuticals will be announced “in about a week”. The progressive tariffs on imported pharmaceuticals could be as high as 250%. US news agency Bloomberg News said the Trump administration is now preparing to target key economic sectors and pledge to reshape global trade. “We’re going to start with a lower tariff on drugs, but within a year, not more than a year and a half, it’s going to be 150%, then 250% because we want drugs made in our country,” Trump said in an interview with CNBC on Tuesday. He did not specify what the initial tariff would be. “We’re going to be announcing measures on semiconductors and chips, which is a different category,” Trump added. However, Trump did not provide further details. The U.S. Commerce Department has been investigating the semiconductor market since April as it prepares for possible tariffs on an industry with estimated global sales of nearly $700 billion. The U.S. has imposed tariffs on imported cars, auto parts, as well as steel and aluminum under the Trump administration. Tariffs on imported chips could significantly raise costs for major data center operators, including Microsoft Corp., OpenAI, Meta Platforms Inc. and Amazon.com Inc., which plan to spend billions of dollars on the advanced semiconductors needed to power their artificial intelligence businesses. On the Fed’s interest-rate path US job growth in July missed expectations, while nonfarm payrolls data for May and June were revised down significantly, with a combined loss of 258,000 jobs, suggesting a worsening labor market. Furthermore, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said on Monday: "We may need more than two rate cuts, and more is likely." She also noted: "The labor market is not too weak, but it is weakening, and further weakening would be detrimental." Surprising US labor market data and Daly’s dovish comments have all but confirmed the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in September. According to CME’s FedWatch tool, the market is now pricing in a 90% chance of a Fed rate cut in September. OANDA:XAUUSD is often seen as a safe haven asset during times of political and economic uncertainty, and performs better in low-interest-rate environments. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD Gold is still trading in a fairly narrow range yesterday, but the price action is still mainly held above the EMA21 and it still has all the conditions for a possible increase. However, although the range is quite large, the overall situation is still showing a sideways accumulation trend. Currently, gold is supported by the EMA21, followed by the short-term $3,310 level and the raw price point of $3,300. As long as it remains above the psychological $3,300 level, it is still eligible for a short-term bullish outlook. Meanwhile, a break above $3,400 would open the door for a new short-term bullish cycle with the next target around $3,430 – $3,450. On the momentum front, the RSI maintains its price action above 50 and is still far from the overbought zone (80 – 100) suggesting that there is still plenty of room for upside ahead. During the day, in terms of technical position, gold has unchanged conditions that are inclined to increase in price, and the notable positions will be listed as follows. Support: 3,350 – 3,340 – 3,310 USD Resistance: 3,400 – 3,430 – 3,450 USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3431 - 3429⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3435 →Take Profit 1 3323 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3317 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3329 - 3331⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3325 →Take Profit 1 3337 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3343
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD down slightly, watch today's data, technical conditionsOANDA:XAUUSD edged lower in Asian trading on Tuesday (August 5), currently trading around $3,380/ounce. On Tuesday, the US ISM services PMI will be released, which is the most important economic data of the week and is expected to impact the gold market. OANDA:XAUUSD prices surged after weak jobs data increased the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates. Data released last Friday showed that the number of new jobs in the US non-farm sector in July was much lower than expected, and the total number of non-farm jobs in the first two months was revised down by 258,000, indicating a sharp deterioration in the labor market. Traders now see an 87% chance of a rate cut in September, up from 63% last week, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. Expectations of a rate cut have boosted gold prices, as the dollar provides support for the precious metal. The US ISM non-manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) for July will be released today (Tuesday) and is expected to be 51.5, up from 50.8 previously. The July ISM services PMI could impact the US dollar and gold, depending on whether it is biased towards supporting a rate cut or pausing rate cuts for an extended period. Gold itself does not generate interest, but generally performs well in low-interest-rate environments and is seen as an inflation hedge. On the trade front Today (August 5), US President Donald Trump threatened to raise tariffs on Indian goods in protest at India's purchase of Russian oil. New Delhi called Trump's attack "absurd" and pledged to protect its economic interests, deepening the trade rift between the two countries. Trump posted on the social media platform Truth Social: "India not only buys massive amounts of Russian oil, but also sells much of it on the open market at a huge profit. They don't care how many people are being killed in Ukraine by the Russian war machine." Trump added: "Accordingly, I will be substantially increasing the tariffs that India pays to the United States." However, Trump did not specify the specific tariff amount. Responding to Trump's remarks, an Indian foreign ministry spokesperson said on Monday that India would "take all necessary measures to protect its national interests and economic security." The spokesperson added: "These actions against India are unjustified and unjustifiable." Over the weekend, Reuters reported that India would continue to buy oil from Russia despite Trump’s threats. In July, Trump announced that he would impose a 25% tariff on imports from India, and US officials have also pointed to a range of geopolitical issues as holding up the signing of a US-India trade deal. Trump has also described the BRICS group as generally hostile to the US. Those countries have rejected Trump’s accusations, saying the group protects the interests of its members and the developing world as a whole. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, although gold has been very volatile in recent times, it is still moving sideways, with price action clinging to the EMA21. And after a strong recovery in the past three trading sessions, gold is temporarily limited by the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, which was the bullish target that readers paid attention to earlier. The return above the EMA21 provides gold with initial conditions for bullish expectations, but a new trend has not yet formed. If gold takes its price action above the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level and stabilizes above it, it will have room to continue rising with the next target being the raw price point of $3,400 rather than the $3,430-$3,450 target. But at its current position, it still has no clear trend either up or down. Meanwhile, once gold sells below the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level, it could continue to decline with a target of $3,246 in the short term, which also means that the $3,300 – $3,292 area is the current key support area. Momentum-wise, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also hovering around 50 with little fluctuation, indicating a hesitant sentiment in the market without leaning to either side. For the day, the technical outlook for gold is a sideways consolidation but the technical conditions are slightly more bullish, and the notable positions are listed as follows. Support: $3,350 – $3,340 – $3,300 Resistance: $3,400 – $3,430 SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3402 - 3400⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3406 →Take Profit 1 3394 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3388 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3329 - 3331⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3325 →Take Profit 1 3337 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3343
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
After data shock, GOLD has bullish conditions againOANDA:XAUUSD rose more than 2% on Friday, hitting a one-week high, as weaker-than-expected U.S. non-farm payrolls data boosted hopes of a Federal Reserve rate cut and the announcement of new tariffs boosted safe-haven demand. On the economic data front Gold prices rose more than 2% in U.S. trading on Friday (Aug. 1), hitting a one-week high, as weaker-than-expected U.S. non-farm payrolls data fueled hopes of a Federal Reserve rate cut and safe-haven demand was boosted by the announcement of new tariffs. The U.S. Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that nonfarm payrolls increased by just 73,000 jobs in July, well below market expectations of 110,000. June's data was revised down to just 14,000, indicating a significant slowdown in job growth. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, indicating a cooling labor market. The jobs data was weaker than expected, but slightly higher than the market's lowest forecast. This increases the likelihood of a rate cut by the Fed later this year. As a non-yielding asset, gold typically performs better in a low-interest-rate environment. According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, market participants now expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates twice before the end of the year, starting in September. Earlier this week, the Fed held rates steady at 4.25%-4.50%. Chairman Powell said it was too early to determine whether a rate cut would be forthcoming in September, citing inflation and employment data. On the trade front Trump has imposed a new round of tariffs on exports from dozens of trading partners, including Canada, Brazil, India and Taiwan, causing a global market crash. Countries are scrambling to negotiate a better deal. In times of economic and geopolitical uncertainty, safe-haven gold is in high demand. So far in 2025, gold prices have risen more than $400, hitting a record high of $3,167.57/oz on April 3, driven by safe-haven demand and central bank buying. Weak jobs data also sent the dollar lower against major currencies, further supporting gold prices as a weaker greenback makes gold more attractive to investors holding other currencies. Investors' Attention Turns to September FOMC Meeting Markets are now focused on the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Facing the dual pressures of volatile inflation, slowing employment and escalating global trade tensions, the Fed will have to balance its inflation target with economic growth. Markets are betting on the Fed to begin a new round of easing, and gold, as a hedge against currency devaluation and economic uncertainty, is expected to continue to benefit. Gold prices have risen more than 30% year-to-date, reflecting the market’s preference for safe-haven assets. If weak U.S. economic data continues in the coming weeks, or if new geopolitical conflicts emerge, gold prices are expected to continue their upward trend, challenging new highs for the year. Summary, Commentary Weak employment, new tariffs and a slumping stock market have all contributed to a strong recovery in gold prices. With the possibility of the US Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September increasing significantly, gold market sentiment has warmed and risk aversion has returned. Investors will need to keep a close eye on inflation data, Fed officials’ speeches, and whether Trump continues to stoke trade tensions, which could lead to greater volatility in the gold market. Against the backdrop of the unexpected non-farm payrolls report and moderate inflation, the market has essentially “locked in” the possibility of a rate cut in September, but whether the cut will be 25 or 50 basis points, and whether there will be further rate cuts in the future, will depend on the interaction between the Fed members’ verbal guidance and market expectations. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, affected by the sudden weak data that shocked the market, gold broke most of the technical structure that was leaning towards the downside. Price action was pushed above the EMA21, while the short-term downtrend channel was also broken above and the Relative Strength Index crossed above 50. These are the initial conditions for a short-term uptrend. But to confirm an uptrend and a new uptrend in the near term, gold needs to continue to break above the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level (3,371 USD) first, then the target will be around 3,400 USD in the short term. If gold breaks above $3,400 again, traders should set a new target of $3,430 in the short term, rather than $3,450 which is the all-time high. Motivationally, the RSI has not reached oversold territory to provide pure reversal support, but it has been pushed by the market shock after the NFP data release, so this rally may not be sustainable in a purely motivational way either. Overall, gold is now more bullish after a rally on Friday, opening up initial conditions for expectations of a new uptrend. And the notable points will be listed as follows. Support: 3,323 – 3,310 – 3,300 USD Resistance: 3,371 – 3,400 – 3,430 USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3376 - 3374⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3380 →Take Profit 1 3368 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3362 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3327 - 3329⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3323 →Take Profit 1 3335 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3341
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
GOLD | XAU/GC - Weekly Recap & Gameplan - 03/08/25📈 Market Context: Gold is currently trading within an accumulation zone as the market begins to price in a potential 0.25% rate cut by the Fed. This macro expectation is supporting the broader bullish bias in the commodities market. 🧾 Weekly Recap: • Price broke below the HTF bullish trendline — a key sign of weakness and potential structural shift. • However, a sharp drop in the DXY (US Dollar Index) provided a bullish tailwind for gold, resulting in a mid-week bounce. • This mixed action sets the stage for two potential outcomes next week. 📌 Technical Outlook & Game Plan: I’m preparing for two possible scenarios: 1️⃣ Bearish Scenario (Red Path): → Price retests the broken trendline and rejects it → Continuation to the downside → Play: Short setup 2️⃣ Bullish Scenario (Green Path): → Price reclaims the broken trendline and closes above it → Continuation higher toward next resistance → Play: Long setup 🎯 Setup Trigger: I will wait for a clear break of structure (BOS) on the 1H–4H timeframe to confirm directional bias. 📋 Trade Management: • Stoploss: Below the demand zone (for longs) or above supply (for shorts) on the 1H–4H chart • Target: → Bullish: $3,536 → Bearish: $3,305 💬 Like, follow, and comment if this breakdown supports your trading! More updates, setups, and educational posts coming soon — stay tuned!
COMEX:GC1!
by UA_CAPITAL
XAUUSD (GOLD): Bullish Impulsive Move Up Friday! Wait For Buys!In this Weekly Market Forecast, we will analyze the Gold (XAUUSD) for the week of Aug 4 - 8th. Gold is bullish on the Monthly, Neutral on the Weekly, Bullish on the Daily. The aggressive move higher after bad job numbers caused a shift in the market from bearish to bullish on the D1 time frame. Be wary of the pullback, as that move is likely to be corrected, but that would set up a great long opportunity! Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RT_Money
4
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Aug 04 - Aug 08]This week, the price of OANDA:XAUUSD fell sharply from $3,345/oz to $3,268/oz after the FED Chairman said that the FED has no plans to cut interest rates at the upcoming September meeting. However, at the end of the week, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that the number of non-farm jobs (NFP) in the US reached only 73,000 jobs in July, much lower than the forecast, and the unemployment rate increased higher, up to 4.2%. This pushed the price of gold up sharply from $3,281/oz to $3,363/oz. The weak labor market has significantly changed expectations for the Fed's interest rate. With a relatively light economic data calendar next week, investors will continue to monitor Friday's jobless claims report. Meanwhile, some analysts predict that the risk of global economic uncertainty after President Donald Trump announced new tariffs will continue to boost safe-haven demand for gold. 📌Technically, the resistance level for gold next week will be the round resistance of 3,400 USD/oz, followed by 3,440 USD/oz. Meanwhile, the support level is around 3,268 USD/oz. Perspective on the H4 chart, gold is currently in a corrective recovery cycle testing the Trendline, it is likely that early next week there will be an increase around 3375 and then a correction decrease again. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 3,323 – 3,310 – 3,300USD Resistance: 3,371 – 3,400 – 3,430USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3394 - 3392⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3398 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3310 - 3312⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3306
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
Gold’s on a Roller Coaster — and We’re Riding It Down🎢 Gold’s on a Roller Coaster — and We’re Riding It Down 🎢 Gold just snapped up like it saw Trump tweet “TARIFFS ARE BACK” — but the move smells like a knee-jerk algo pump, not real conviction. We just rejected right into a thin-volume imbalance zone and tagged the underside of a long-standing trendline. 📉 Short Setup Locked In: 💥 Entry: 3405 🛑 Stop: 3415 🎯 Target: 3353 💰 R:R ≈ 5:1 🔍 Why I'm In This Trade: That rip? Total headline panic, not structural strength. Low volume shelf above, with a massive POC magnet below at 3353. We tapped the Developing VAH (3414) and got rejected — classic trap setup. SQZMOM showing the energy is already fizzling. Green flash, no follow-through. 🧠 The Narrative: Gold’s trying to price in volatility from every angle — Trump talk, tariffs, macro chaos — but under the hood, this pop looks unsustainable. If this is just a liquidity grab, we could see a flush back into the meat of value fast. Grab your helmets — this roller coaster might just be heading downhill 🎢📉
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Short
by JoshuaDanford
GOLD falls sharply, fundamental analysis and technical positionOANDA:XAUUSD fell sharply below the $3,300/oz price level as Chairman Jerome Powell did not signal any rate cuts at his next press conference on September 16-17. He only said that “no decision has been made on September” and that “more data will be evaluated in the coming months.” Economic data undermined the case for a rate cut, while geopolitical play remained a potential support. The Fed and Interest Rates The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged for a fifth straight meeting on Wednesday, defying persistent pressure from President Donald Trump and White House officials. However, two members of the central bank's board dissented, a rare move in three decades that underscored growing divisions within the central bank over the impact of Trump's tariff policies. At the meeting, the Fed kept its benchmark federal funds rate in a range of 4.25% to 4.5%, in line with policy through 2025. Last fall, the Fed cut rates by a total of 100 basis points. However, Federal Reserve Board Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman opposed cutting interest rates by another 25 basis points, marking the first time since Alan Greenspan in 1993 that two board members have opposed a majority resolution at a meeting. At the press conference, Chairman Jerome Powell did not signal a rate cut at the next interest rate meeting on September 16-17, saying only that “no decision has been made about September” and that “more data will be evaluated in the coming months.” Powell also noted that despite Trump’s call for a sharp 3% rate cut to reduce interest costs on US debt and stimulate the housing market, the Fed will continue to monitor the longer-term impact of tariffs on the path of inflation and economic recovery. Market expectations for a Fed rate cut in September fell to 47% in Powell's speech. Economic data ADP jobs data beats expectations and is bearish US ADP payrolls jumped 104,000 in July, beating market expectations of 75,000 and marking the biggest gain since March. The data showed continued strength in the labor market, reinforcing the Federal Reserve’s stance on keeping interest rates high. Meanwhile, the preliminary estimate of annual GDP growth in the second quarter came in at 3% (2.4% expected), and the core personal consumption expenditures price index rose 2.5% year-on-year (2.3% expected), indicating both economic resilience and inflation stability, further weakening expectations for a rate cut. Keep an eye on the ISM manufacturing PMI and non-farm payrolls data on August 1. If the jobs numbers continue to be strong, this could reinforce the Fed’s dovish stance. Geopolitical and Policy Plays News of a 90-day extension of the US-China tariff deal has eased some safe-haven demand, but Trump’s August 8 deadline for a new Russia-Ukraine deal, coupled with tensions in the Middle East, continue to provide potential support for gold. Continued purchases by central banks (such as China and India) are a positive signal in the medium to long term, but are unlikely to offset short-term pressure from the Federal Reserve’s policies. Technical outlook for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold has been sold below the $3,300 level and now the $3,300 level has become the nearest resistance at present. For now, gold will be limited by the area of ​​the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement with the original price point of $3,300, along with that it has formed a short-term downtrend with the price channel, the next target will be around $3,246 in the short term followed by the Fibonacci retracement level noted with readers in previous publications. On the momentum front, the Relative Strength Index is operating below 50 and is far from the oversold zone (20-0), indicating that there is still plenty of room for downside ahead. In addition, the gold trend will also be pressured by the EMA21, as long as gold remains below the EMA21, the current technical conditions continue to favor the downside. For the day, the technical outlook for gold is bearish with notable positions listed as follows. Support: 3,246 – 3,228 USD Resistance: 3,300 USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3345 - 3343⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3349 →Take Profit 1 3337 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3331 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3240 - 3242⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3236 →Take Profit 1 3248 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3254
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Xayah_trading
3
GLD – Why Gold Is a Clear Short to MePrice moved from the Lower Median Line (L-MLH) up to the Centerline, fulfilling the 80% rule. Then we had two Hagopians, which sent price right back to the Centerline. After the breakout above the Centerline, the next target was the Upper Median Line Parallel (U-MLH), which was reached rather quickly. Finally, price broke above the U-MLH and was pulled up toward the Warning Line (WL). Is this the end of the happy story? I think so—because Gold has now reached its 2nd standard deviation, and there’s probably no more gas left in the tank. The Trade: - A logical target is the U-MLH. - A secondary target is the Centerline. At the very least, if you're long, this might be a good time to take some profits—because no tree grows to the moon. For further details, I will follow-up with a Video explanation - See my Signature.
AMEX:GLDShort
by Tr8dingN3rd
GOLD recovers after many days of declineOANDA:XAUUSD has recovered after several days of declines. Investors will focus on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on Wednesday, which is expected to cause significant market volatility. Gold hit a three-week low of $3,301 an ounce on Monday, before recovering somewhat on Tuesday after falling for a fourth straight day as the dollar erased some of its earlier gains, boosting demand for the precious metal. Falling US Treasury yields and a weak US jobs report also prompted investors to buy gold. Data released by the U.S. Labor Department on Tuesday showed the number of jobs added fell in June after two straight months of gains. The number of jobs added in June fell to 7.44 million from a revised 7.71 million in May. The median forecast of economists in a survey was 7.5 million. Focus on the Federal Reserve's decision The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision at 01:00 IST on Thursday; Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will hold a press conference on monetary policy at 01:30 IST on the same day. The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged, with the focus on whether Fed Chairman Powell's speech will provide any clues about the timing or pace of future rate cuts. The market sees a very low chance of a rate cut in July and a roughly 40% chance of another rate cut in September, up from about 10% last month, according to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's FedWatch tool. Investors will be closely watching the statement and Fed Chairman Powell's remarks at his post-meeting press conference for fresh clues on the timing of the next rate cut. - If Powell opens the door to a rate cut in September, citing the recent trade deal as a reason to ease uncertainty, US Treasury yields could fall immediately, paving the way for gold prices to rise. - On the other hand, if Powell avoids committing to a rate cut at this meeting, citing recent rising inflation data, gold prices could fall. Gold typically performs well in low-interest-rate environments because it does not pay interest and its appeal increases when returns from other assets decline. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD Gold has recovered from the key $3,300 price point and is holding above $3,310, which is also the nearest support. However, the current recovery is not technically enough to create a short-term uptrend, or conditions for a sustained price increase. In terms of position, gold is under pressure with the 21-day EMA as the nearest resistance at around $3,340 – $3,350. If gold falls below the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level, it will be eligible to open a new downtrend with a target of around $3,246 in the short term, more than the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement level. On the other hand, RSI is below 50, and the current 50 level acts as momentum resistance in the short term. If RSI slopes down, it will signal bearish momentum with more downside ahead. For gold to qualify for bullish expectations, it needs to at least push price action above EMA21, then retrace back to the price channels and finally break above the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level to confirm bullish conditions. The upside target could be towards $3,400 in the short term, more like $3,430 – $3,450. For the day, the technical outlook for gold prices tends to lean more towards the downside, with the following notable points listed. Support: 3,310 – 3,300 – 3,292 USD Resistance: 3,340 – 3,350 – 3,371 USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3376 - 3374⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3380 →Take Profit 1 3368 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3362 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3280 - 3282⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3276 →Take Profit 1 3288 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3294
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Xayah_trading
2
Gold - Short Setup Off Major Trendline Rejection📉 Gold - Short Setup Off Major Trendline Rejection Gold has broken down through the rising trendline and is now retesting it — the moment of truth! 🧐 🔻 Short Entry: 3,336 🎯 Target: 3,236 (Fib 1.0 + HVN gap fill) 🛑 Stop: 3,346 (Above trendline retest) ⚖️ Risk/Reward: ~1:10 📊 Bonus: High volume node above adds resistance. Bearish volume profile structure confirms the breakdown bias. Watching for volume to pick up on the move down. Let's see if GC bleeds into August. 🩸📆
COMEX:GC1!Short
by JoshuaDanford
Gold Price Analysis (GC1! or XAU/USD): Challenges and OutlookSince reaching a historic high of $3,509 on April 22, 2025, gold has struggled to maintain its upward momentum. On the daily timeframe, the price experienced a sharp rejection spike after touching that peak, prompting a sideways range as the market seeks a clearer direction. From a technical perspective, a stronger US dollar typically puts downward pressure on gold, making it a more expensive investment for holders. However, examining the chart of GC1! * alongside the DXY shows that even during periods of a robust dollar, gold has continued to rise. Additionally, recent years have seen seasonality effects on gold largely ignored, with the yellow metal persistently climbing. The underlying reasons are multifaceted, but a key factor is gold’s status as a safe-haven asset—investors prefer to hold gold during times of uncertainty and economic turmoil. * GOLD and DXY correlation Looking ahead, investors are awaiting the Federal Reserve’s upcoming monetary policy announcement scheduled for Wednesday. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the consensus is that the Fed will keep interest rates steady at 4.25%-4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting with unchanged rates. From both fundamental and technical viewpoints, recent data suggest a cautious outlook. Notably, non-commercial traders added nearly 40,000 long contracts last week, indicating bullish sentiment. Conversely, retail traders have reduced their positions, which could signal a potential shift in market dynamics. The key question remains: where might be a strategic entry point if gold resumes its upward trend? In the chart, I’ve highlighted two daily demand zones and a strong weekly demand area. There’s a possibility that the price may not revisit the weekly demand zone to accommodate new longs, instead triggering entry signals from one of the daily demand zones. I recommend adding these zones to your watchlist as potential entry points. What are your thoughts? I look forward to your insights! ✅ Please share your thoughts about GC1! in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by FOREXN1
8
GOLD trades in narrow range after 4 sessions of sharp declineOn Tuesday (July 29), in the Asian market, the spot OANDA:XAUUSD traded in a narrow range after yesterday's sharp decline, and the current gold price is around 3,315 USD/ounce. The OANDA:XAUUSD fell to its lowest level in nearly 3 weeks on Monday, mainly due to the trade agreement reached between the United States and the European Union over the weekend, which boosted the Dollar and risk sentiment. The previous report released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the number of US JOLTS jobs unexpectedly increased in May, reaching the highest level since November last year. The number of JOLTS job vacancies in the US in May was 7.769 million, far exceeding the forecast of all economists surveyed. Looking back at the data in April, the number of JOLTS job vacancies also showed an unexpected increase. The JOLTS jobs report is a closely watched labor market data by the Federal Reserve. In addition, the Conference Board of America's Consumer Confidence Index for July is scheduled to be released on the same day and is expected to be 95.8, compared to the previous value of 93.0. The fundamental pressure that gold is under OANDA:XAUUSD came under pressure yesterday and fell to a near three-week low, mainly due to the trade deal between the United States and the European Union (EU) over the weekend, which boosted the Dollar and risk sentiment. Moreover, US President Trump announced “global tariffs” of 15% to 20% on most countries, a change from his previous statement last week. The deal reached by U.S. President Donald Trump and the European Union late last week will impose a 15% tariff on EU goods, half the rate Trump had threatened, easing fears of a wider trade war. The U.S. and Japan also reached a deal last week, and U.S. and Chinese officials resumed talks in Stockholm, Sweden, this week with the goal of extending the tariff deadline by 90 days. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD Gold has been on a four-day losing streak, a decline that threatens bullish expectations as its current position gradually deprives it of any room for further upside. Specifically, gold has recovered from the psychological level of $3,300 but the actual recovery is not significant, while it is under pressure from the EMA21 which is currently the closest resistance. On the other hand, gold has fallen below both the long-term and short-term trend channels. If it continues to sell below the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level, this will confirm a break below the psychological level of $3,300, then the downside target will be around $3,246 in the short term, rather than $3,228. RSI is pointing down, below 50 and still far from the 20-0 area, also showing that in terms of momentum, gold is also under pressure and there is still a lot of room for decline ahead. For gold to be eligible for an increase, it needs to at least bring price activity back above the EMA21, back inside the price channels. On the current daily chart, the technical conditions are more inclined towards the possibility of a decrease. Notable positions will be listed as follows. Support: 3,310 - 3,300 - 3,292 USD Resistance: 3,340 - 3,350 - 3,371 USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3355 - 3353⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3359 →Take Profit 1 3347 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3341 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3285 - 3287⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3281 →Take Profit 1 3293 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3299
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Xayah_trading
GOLD falls on USD and trade talks, big data weekSpot OANDA:XAUUSD ended its rally this week on Friday (July 25) and closed down nearly 1%, mainly affected by the recovery of the US Dollar TVC:DXY and progress in trade negotiations that weakened safe-haven demand. DXY recovered 0.27% on Friday to close at 97.642, ending a two-week low, making gold less attractive than its direct correlation. Earlier, news of a US-Japan trade deal and a breakthrough in US-EU talks weakened the market's demand for safe-haven assets. For the content of the US-Japan trade deal, readers can review it in the daily publications during the past trading week. Data and Fed Expectations The latest US jobless claims fell to a three-month low, suggesting the job market remains solid. This gives the Federal Reserve reason to maintain interest rates at 4.25%-4.50%, despite President Trump once again pressuring Powell to cut rates. However, in the short term, the fundamental direction of gold may need to wait for the Federal Reserve to announce more policy signals at its meeting next week. Speculative Longs Hit High Near April Peak Data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showed that as of the week of July 22, the speculative net long position in COMEX gold rose by 27,211 lots to 170,868 lots, the highest level since April. This shows that as gold prices fall again, buyers are still actively deploying, waiting for more guidance from policy and data. Last Week Review and This Week’s Fundamental Outlook Last week, gold prices initially rose and then fell. Due to risk aversion and volatility in the US dollar, gold prices surpassed the $3,400/ounce mark at the start of the week, but as trade optimism increased and profit-taking emerged, gold prices fell back, trying to stay above $3,300/ounce. Investors will face several major events this week: Federal Reserve policy meeting (Wednesday): Markets expect interest rates to remain unchanged, but Powell’s speech could influence market expectations for a rate cut this year. Macro data will be released in batches: including ADP employment data on Wednesday, PCE price index on Thursday and non-farm payrolls report on Friday. These data will determine the next move of gold. Global central bank trends: The Bank of Canada and the Bank of Japan also hold policy meetings next week. Investors will be watching to see if their policy signals cause volatility in the US dollar and gold prices. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold is in a rather important position after 3 consecutive corrective declines. However, the bearish momentum still keeps gold above the base price, which is an important psychological point for the bullish expectation of 3,300 USD. In terms of position and indicators, gold has not completely lost the ability for a bullish outlook. Specifically, gold is still in a short-term rising channel and supported by the EMA21. On the other hand, it is still supported by the horizontal support level of 3,310 USD, followed by the psychological level of 3,300 USD and the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement. Gold will only qualify for a bearish cycle if it sells below the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level, then the target will be around 3,246 USD in the short term, more than the 0.50% Fibonacci level. RSI is sloping down, but has not yet crossed the 50 level, and in the current case, the 50 level acts as a momentum support for the RSI. It shows that there is still room for an increase in price, and if RSI sloping up from 50, it will provide a bullish signal with relatively wide room. If gold rises above the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level (3,371 USD), it will be eligible for a new bullish cycle with a target of around 3,400 USD in the short term, more than 3,430 – 3,450 USD then the all-time high. In the coming time, in terms of position and indicators, gold still has a technical outlook leaning more towards the upside and the notable points will be listed as follows. Support: 3,310 – 3,300 – 3,292 USD Resistance: 3,350 – 3,371 – 3,400 – 3,430 USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3371 - 3369⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3375 →Take Profit 1 3363 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3357 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3303 - 3305⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3299 →Take Profit 1 3311 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3317
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
5
Tariffs, Trade Deals, & Central Bank Watch: Key Week in MarketsCME_MINI:NQ1! CME_MINI:ES1! CME_MINI:MNQ1! COMEX:GC1! CME_MINI:MES1! NYMEX:CL1! This is a significant week in terms of macroeconomic headlines, key data releases, central bank decisions, and major trade policy developments. We get numbers for growth, inflation and decision and insights into monetary policy. Combining this with ongoing trade policy developments, we have a key week which may shape how the rest of the year unfolds. Below is a consolidated summary of the latest trade negotiations, scheduled economic releases, and policy outlooks. US - EU Trade Deal: • US–EU Tariffs: The US will impose a 15% tariff on most EU goods, including cars, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals, but retain a 50% tariff on steel and aluminium with a new quota system. • Exemptions: Zero-for-zero tariffs agreed for agriculture, aircraft parts, and chemicals; aircraft exports are temporarily exempt. • EU Commitments: The EU will invest $600 billion in the US and purchase $750 billion in US energy, mainly LNG. • Agriculture: The EU will lower tariffs on many US agricultural goods, though not comprehensively. • Political Reactions: EU leaders are mixed, Germany and the Netherlands praised the deal, France called it unbalanced, and Hungary viewed it unfavorably. • The deal is not final until it is ratified by all EU national parliaments and the EU Parliament. China Talks: US and China expected to extend their trade truce by 90 days. US-China meeting expected in Stockholm on Monday and Tuesday. Trump to freeze export controls to secure a deal. A group of US executives will visit China for trade discussions, organized by the US-China Business Council. South Korea Trade Talks: Korea proposes a shipbuilding partnership with the US and is preparing a trade package. UK–US Relations: PM Starmer and Trump to meet in Scotland to discuss the UK–US trade deal implementation, Middle East ceasefire, and pressure on Russia. Thus far, the US has announced trade deals with the UK, Vietnam, Philippines, Indonesia, Japan and The EU. Trade delegations are working to finalize deals with China, Mexico, Canada Key Economic Data Releases: Monday: Treasury refunding financing estimates. Supply: 2-Year and 5-Year Note Auction, 3 & 6-Month Bill Auction Tuesday: US Advance Goods Trade Balance, Wholesale Inventories Advance, CB Consumer Confidence, JOLTS Job Opening (Jun), Atlanta Fed GDPNow, Australian CPI Q2 Supply: 7-Year Note Auction Wednesday: German GDP Q2, EUR GDP Q2, US ADP Non-farm Employment, US GDP Q2, Crude Oil Inventories, Chinese Manufacturing PMI Canada: BoC Interest Rate Decision, Rate Statement, Monterey Policy Report, BoC Press Conference US: Fed Interest Rate Decision,FOMC Statement, Fed Press Conference. Japan: BoJ Interest Rate Decision, Monetary Policy Statement Thursday: EU Unemployment (Jun), US PCE & Core PCE Price Index (Jun) Japan: BoJ Press Conference Friday: EU CPI, US NFP, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings, ISM Manufacturing PMI, Michigan 1-Year & 5-Year Inflation Expectations. It is also a busy earnings week. See here for a complete earnings schedule . Markets are interpreting trade deals as positive news thus far. The dollar is strengthening. As we previously mentioned, we anticipate no rate cuts this year as economic data proves to be resilient and inflation largely under control. WSJ also posted an article stating that most tariffs costs are being absorbed by companies due to weaker pricing power. We previously wrote about this on our blog: “ In our analysis, the inflation impact of tariffs may not show up until Q4 2025 or early 2026, as tariff threats are mostly used as a lever to negotiate deals. While effective tariff rates have increased, as Trump reshapes how tariffs are viewed, cost pass-through to consumers will be limited in Q3 2025, as companies’ front-loaded inventory helps mitigate the risks of increased tariff exposure. So, what we have is an interesting development shaping up where, while inflation may rise and remain sticky, it is yet to be seen whether slowing consumer spending will weaken enough to the point where companies must start offering discounts, which would nullify the tariff risk to the end consumer and result in companies absorbing all tariffs. This scenario will see reduced earnings margins leading into the last quarter and early 2026. However, it will materially reduce risks of higher inflation.” In our view, the US dollar has a higher probability to rally in the short-term i.e., Q3 as markets re-align FX rate differentials. Bond yields stabilize, Equities continue pushing higher, while Gold retraces as previously mentioned. This in our view, is what investors and participants refer to as the Goldilocks scenario. If this plays out as expected we anticipate continued strength with AI, tech, energy and defense sectors outperforming into mid- 2026. Institutional View: Morgan Stanley Morgan Stanley also sees no rate cuts in 2025, despite market pricing for two 25 bps cuts. They forecast more aggressive cuts in 2026 due to: • Tariff-related inflation emerging before labor market deterioration • Slowing US growth, as fiscal support fades • Impact of tighter immigration policy and global trade realignment That said, MS continues to cite longer-term risks to the dollar, including: • Twin deficits (fiscal + current account) • Ongoing debate around USD’s safe haven status • USD hedging activity picking up by international investors • Strained credibility of the Fed due to tension between Fed Chair and the US Administration How Fed policy evolves in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 will depend heavily on the incoming Fed Chair nominee, who is expected to replace Jerome Powell in May 2026. This nomination could significantly influence future policy direction around growth and inflation targets.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by EdgeClear