GOLD recovered to EMA21, Middle East situation tense
On the Asian market on Monday (May 27), gold was delivered immediately OANDA:XAUUSD increase rapidly in the short term. Gold price touched 2,347 USD/ounce, setting a session high and increasing strongly by more than 13 USD during the day.
OANDA:XAUUSD The gains were supported by a weaker US Dollar and rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East. Tuesday's speeches by Fed officials Bowman, Mester and Kashkari will be closely watched.
Affected by the Memorial Day/Spring Bank Holiday, US and UK stock markets will be closed for one day on May 27; CME Group's U.S. crude oil futures and precious metals trading will be suspended at 01:30 Hanoi time on May 28.
Gold will get more data from speeches by Fed officials on Tuesday, including those from Bowman, Mester and Kashkari.
The US's first quarter gross domestic product (GDP) released on Thursday will be the focus, with GDP expected to grow 1.5% in the first quarter. Stronger-than-expected data could boost the Dollar and continue to pressure gold, whereas weaker-than-expected data would see gold supported and the Dollar weaker.
In terms of the fundamental picture, gold is receiving some support that could be transformative as the geopolitical situation becomes complicated again. Previous lessons show that every time the geopolitical situation becomes complicated and escalates, gold sets a new all-time peak.
The Israeli army has conducted many air strikes! Killed about 200 people
Early on the morning of May 27 local time, the Gaza Strip Media Office issued a statement saying that in the past 24 hours, the Israeli army conducted 10 attacks on 10 areas in the Gaza Strip such as Jebaliya, Nusayrat, and City. Gaza, and northwestern Rafah. Air strikes targeted evacuation centers run by multiple United Nations agencies, killing a total of about 200 people.
A day earlier, the Qassan Brigades, an armed faction affiliated with Hamas, said it had launched a "massive rocket" attack on Tel Aviv, Israel, in response to the "massacre of civilians by the regime". Zionism".
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, receiving support from the $2,324 gold level rose quickly to test the $2,345 EMA21 price point which is also the short-term target recovery level sent to you in the weekly publication.
Now, with the geopolitical situation becoming more complicated, once gold breaks out of the 21-day EMA and moves above the 21-day moving average and returns to the trend, it is well placed to continue. Technically bullish with a short-term target then aiming for the 0.236% Fibonacci extension and more to the original price of 2,400USD.
On the other hand, EMA21 is also the nearest resistance, which provides expectations for the possibility of a price decrease with a target level at 2,324USD, more at 2,305USD.
During the day, the technical outlook is still leaning towards the possibility of a price decrease in the case of qualifying for the above increase.
Notable prices are listed below.
Support: 2,324 – 2,305USD
Resistance: 2,384 – 2,400USD
🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2380 - 2378
⚰️SL: 2384
⬆️TP1: 2373
⬆️TP2: 2368
🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2306 - 2308
⚰️SL: 2302
⬆️TP1: 2313
⬆️TP2: 2318
Gc1!!
GOLD down 0.17%, focus on GDP and Williams' speechThe benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield increased more than 1% yesterday and is currently in the Asian trading session today May 30, also increasing 0.09% and surpassing 4.6%. , causing gold prices to lose support and continue to decline. Gold spot price OANDA:XAUUSD currently reported at around 2,334USD/oz, a decrease equivalent to 0.17% on the day.
After the price of OANDA:XAUUSD reaching a new all-time high, it encountered a sell-off and fell back to more than 120 US Dollars an ounce from a high of 2,450 USD/ounce.
The recent trend of the United States maintaining high interest rates for a longer period of time will support the US Dollar and high US bond yields, putting some pressure on the precious metals market.
However, from a more general perspective if the Federal Reserve begins to cut interest rates in the future, it will significantly support gold prices. In addition, with the support of factors such as central banks continuously increasing gold purchases and the increasing instability of the global geopolitical situation, the potential for gold prices to increase in the near future still remains.
Federal Reserve (Fed) officials have made hawkish comments, stimulating demand for the dollar recently. As a result, market sentiment worsened and the US Dollar increased in value.
Traders were still absorbing hawkish comments from Federal Reserve official Neel Kashkari on Tuesday. He said Fed officials are not ignoring interest rate hikes, adding that they could cut rates up to twice by the end of 2024 in case they do.
This week, traders are preparing to release April's personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. Core PCE is expected to increase 2.8% year-over-year, while overall PCE is expected to increase 0.3% month-over-month. If data shows a rise in inflation this will boost sentiment to keep interest rates high for longer. This situation is negative for gold prices because the opportunity cost of investing in non-yielding assets such as gold is increasing. This scenario will be beneficial for interest-earning assets and US Dollar yields.
During this trading day, traders should also pay attention to the US GDP Index data, Initial Jobless Claims and Speech by FOMC member Williams.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
After the gold price failed to break above the trend (a) note to readers in previous issues it came under pressure and fell back to test the initial notable support level at 2,324 USD.
It is worth mentioning that the gold price has fallen below the EMA21 level, providing favorable conditions for a bearish outlook in the near future.
If gold falls below the initial support at $2,324 it could continue to decline towards $2,305 – $2,300 in the short term.
The relative strength index (RSI) is still pointing down without reaching the oversold level, which shows that there is still technical room for downside.
Only when gold moves above the trend will it have enough conditions to continue to recover and increase in price. For the rest of the day, the technical outlook for gold prices leans towards the possibility of a decrease in price with notable positions being identified. listed as follows.
Support: 2,324 – 2,305 – 2,300USD
Resistance: 2,340 – 2,345 – 2,353USD
🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2379 - 2377
⚰️SL: 2383
⬆️TP1: 2372
⬆️TP2: 2367
🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2306 - 2308
⚰️SL: 2301
⬆️TP1: 2313
⬆️TP2: 2318
XAUUSD: First 4H Death Cross in almost 5 months! Is it bearish?Gold is neutral on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 47.738) but turned bearish on its 4H technical outlook (RSI = 42.512, MACD = -2.860, ADX = 30.716) as it formed the first 4H Death Cross since January 15th. If Gold fails to reclaim the 1D MA50 and establish a week of trading over it, we project a slow decline same as January-February aiming at the S1 level (TP = 2,300). The long term trend will remain bullish though as long as the 1D MA100 supports.
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Gold to the moon? Maybe not yet...My bias is honestly, Gold to the moon...always.. :) At the present moment though I feel as If my technicals tell me the ONLY entry I should be looking for is a Sell.....
I dont bracket my trades so heres the entry...
Should price action change before 11 am Ill make adjustments
GOLD → Correction for liquidity. Should we wait for the fall?FX:XAUUSD has been updating the low to 2314 since the opening of the session and is forming a correction within which it is testing the previously broken consolidation support. The fall may continue from the liquidity area.
The fundamental and technical background for gold is negative at the moment. A possible area of interest for the market may be the area of 2305 - 2280. Accordingly, based on the general data, we can assume that a retest of the resistance area 2328-2336 may end in a false breakdown with a subsequent decline to the targets indicated on the chart. There is a possibility of price entry into the range and an attempt to rise to 2354, but in general, it will be regarded as an attempt to gather a more liquid position before reaching a global and promising target.
Let me remind you that globally we have a bullish trend, within which a local bearish trend is forming.
Resistance levels: 2328, 2336, 2354
Support levels: 2306, 2285
It is worth to keep an eye on the mentioned resistance areas. False breakdown followed by price consolidation below the mentioned zone will be a confirmation of bears' readiness to go down.
Regards R. Linda!
XAUUSD forming the first 4H Death Cross in 5 months!Gold (XAUUSD) broke below the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) and is forming today the first 4H Death Cross since January 12. As we mentioned on our previous analysis, we expect the yellow metal to trade sideways on the medium-term and that involves the price testing the May 03 Low on a potential contact with the 1D MA100 (green trend-line).
This will be a mirror trade of the previous Accumulation Phase (late 2023 - early 2024), when Gold made contact with the 1D MA100 on February 13 2024 and then immediately started the new Bullish Leg.
Our Target remains 2280.
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GOLD → The calm before the storm. 2400 or 2200?FX:XAUUSD reduces volatility and shrinks into a narrow range before the news. US GDP did not play any role and traders are waiting for the general fundamental background. Locally, the downtrend.
The trend is downtrending, but on yesterday's news the price is trying to break the channel resistance, forming a consolidation of the price above the line. But if the price returns to the channel, due to the formed consolidation, the market may see a strong momentum towards 2280.
Ahead of the news, traders are waiting for PCE. But, the market believes that the index will remain at the same level and this generally complicates the situation because if in fact the situation changes it may trigger a violent reaction
Resistance levels: 2354, 2374
Support levels: 2328, 2306
Globally bullish trend, but there is no strong buyer yet. Everyone is waiting for the news. Locally the trend is bearish, to confirm the change of the trend to a local bullish one, the price should overcome the area of 2354 - 2364 and consolidate above, in this case - the way to 2400. But, a break of 2328 will make the market panic
Regards R. Linda!
GOLD fell last week, the market will pay attention to PCEAlthough central bank buying and strong Asian demand have created a long-term fundamental bullish trend for gold, OANDA:XAUUSD , but uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy continues to create large short-term fluctuations, mainly with mixed pressure to strengthen the US Dollar's position.
Gold prices rose to a record high above $2,450 an ounce earlier this week as the market began to consolidate expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates twice this year. However, the breakout to create a new all-time high was short-lived as gold prices fell more than $100 this week.
Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting showed hawkish sentiment, with the central bank reluctant to cut interest rates as inflationary pressures remain high.
The meeting minutes stated: "Participants noted that first-quarter inflation data were disappointing and that various indicators pointed to strong economic growth. They estimated that it would take a long time." than previously expected to get inflation closer to 2%.”
The minutes also noted that some committee members were willing to raise interest rates if inflation continued to escalate.
This news has delayed interest rate cut expectations and November could replace September as the date for the first rate cut. This change has pushed U.S. Treasury yields higher and the U.S. dollar stronger, thereby hitting non-yielding precious metal prices.
Gold market OANDA:XAUUSD will be very sensitive to inflation data next week
The Fed's preferred measure of inflation, the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index, will be released next Friday.
Signs of easing price pressures could revive hopes of a Fed rate cut, pushing gold prices higher. If the PCE report is higher than market expectations, it will continue to provide another source of "energy" that has a negative impact on the Fed's interest rate cut expectations, causing gold prices to fall even more.
While Friday's inflation data will be the main focus in the economic week ahead, broader financial markets will also be closely watching the latest US GDP and consumer confidence data.
Notable economic data and events next week
Tuesday: Conference Board consumer confidence index
Thursday: Preliminary US Q1 GDP, weekly jobless claims, pending home sales
Friday: Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) and US Personal Income and Expenditures
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
Although the gold price has recovered from the technical level of 2,324 USD noted by readers in the last issue, the recovery momentum was soon defeated by the horizontal resistance level of 2,345 USD, the price point marked with moderate attention. horizontal resistance and also the price point of EMA21.
As long as it cannot break and move above EMA21, it is still not technically eligible to increase in price. For gold price to be eligible to increase in price, it at least needs to operate above EMA21 and return. above the trend line again, this is also considered resistance, creating technical pressure on gold prices at the present time.
In case the aforementioned resistance confluence area is broken above, gold has the opportunity to rally further and head towards the 0.236% Fibonacci levels and the $2,400 level in the short term.
On the other hand, if the $2,324 horizontal support level is broken below gold could continue to decline more to the 2,304 level and more to the $2,300 raw price level in the short term.
Technically, the gold price is in more favorable conditions for the possibility of a price decrease, while the Relative Strength Index is pointing down without reaching the oversold level, this shows that gold still has room to fall.
Notable prices will be listed as follows.
Support: 2,324 – 2,304 – 2,300USD
Resistance: 2,345USD
🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2371 - 2369
⚰️SL: 2375
⬆️TP1: 2364
⬆️TP2: 2359
🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2289 - 2291
⚰️SL: 2285
⬆️TP1: 2296
⬆️TP2: 2301
XAUUSD. Weekly trading levels 27 - 31.05.2024During the week you can trade from these price levels. Finding the entry point into a transaction and its support is up to you, depending on your trading style and the development of the situation. Zones show preferred price ranges WHERE to look for an entry point into a trade.
If you expect any medium-term price movements, then most likely they will start from one of the zones.
Levels are valid for a week, the date is in the title. Next week I will adjust the levels based on new data and publish a new post.
! Please note that brokers have a difference in quotes, take this into account when trading.
The history of level development can be seen in my previous posts. They cannot be edited or deleted. Everything is fair. :)
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I don’t play guess the direction (that’s why there are no directional arrows), but zones (levels) are used for trading. We wait for the zone to approach, watch the reaction, and enter the trade.
Levels are drawn based on volumes and data from the CME. They are used as areas of interest for trading. Traded as classic support/resistance levels. We see the reaction to the rebound, we trade the rebound. We see a breakout and continue to trade on a rollback to the level. The worst option is if we revolve around the zone in a flat.
Do not reverse the market at every level; if there is a trend movement, consider it as an opportunity to continue the movement. Until the price has drawn a reversal pattern.
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GOLD is breaking bullish structure, pay special attention to FedOANDA:XAUUSD fell to its lowest level in 2 weeks when demand for the US Dollar in the market recovered.
A Federal Reserve rate cut in September is looking less and less likely, which is causing some selling pressure on gold. Investors will focus on today's (Friday) speech by Federal Reserve Governor Waller, US durable goods orders and the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index report.
Strong U.S. economic data pushed U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar higher, which in turn weighed on gold prices.
S&P Global said the US Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), which tracks manufacturing and services sector activity, rose to 54.4 in May, its highest level since April 2022.
Other data released on Thursday showed the number of people filing for unemployment benefits in the US fell to 215,000 last week, the biggest two-week drop since last September.
Minutes from a Federal Reserve meeting released Wednesday showed that officials still believe price pressures will gradually ease over at least the next few months, but some officials said they were ready to support spending increases. borrowing costs if inflation spikes.
Notable data and events of the day
Fed Governor Waller is scheduled to speak on Friday. Hawkish comments from Federal Reserve policymakers could put pressure on gold prices. It's worth noting that higher interest rates typically hurt gold prices because they increase the opportunity cost of investing in gold.
In addition, US durable goods orders and the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index will also be published.
The preliminary value of US durable goods orders for April will be published, with the monthly rate expected to decrease by 0.8 %, after increasing 2.6% in March.
The final value of the University of Michigan's Consumer Confidence Index for May will be announced and is expected to be 67.5.
Fed Governor John Waller, who has been hawkish on the Fed's rate-hike cycle, said Tuesday that he would need to see good inflation data for several more months before starting to cut rates.
“In the absence of significant weakness in the labor market, I would need to see good inflation data for several more months before I feel comfortable making a move,” Waller said at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington. support the loose monetary policy stance."
Waller and other Fed officials have recently emphasized that the central bank may need to keep interest rates steady for longer than previously expected. Policymakers have not adjusted the benchmark interest rate, currently at a 23-year high, since last July.
Fundamentally, traders need to pay special attention to the speech of Fed Governor Waller, who is a hawkish Fed official and Waller is very likely to follow up with further comments. causing pressure on gold prices.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold broke most of the key technical levels and broke the technical structure that favors the upside.
The drop below the trend and EMA21 is providing further downside risk to gold prices.
In the immediate future, gold has a support at the technical level of 2,325 USD, and in case this technical level continues to be broken, gold will be eligible to move towards the level of 2,305 - 2,300 USD in the short term.
The relative strength index (RSI) is pointing down but is still far from the oversold area, suggesting that gold prices still have room to decline further on the daily chart.
From the technical level of 2,325 USD, the possibility of technical recovery is also limited by the EMA21 level which is currently the closest resistance, noticed by the technical point of 2,344 USD.
During the day, gold's technical outlook leans more bearish with limited recovery and notable price levels are listed below.
Support: 2,324 – 2,305USD
Resistance: 2,344USD
🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2370 - 2368
⚰️SL: 2374
⬆️TP1: 2363
⬆️TP2: 2358
🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2288 - 2290
⚰️SL: 2284
⬆️TP1: 2295
⬆️TP2: 2300
GOLD Rebounds as US Growth Slows: Detailed AnalysisGold experienced a notable rebound on Thursday after the second estimate of US first-quarter GDP growth revealed a downward revision to an annualized 1.3% from the initial estimate of 1.6%. This revision reflects weaker consumer spending, which has important implications for inflation and monetary policy.
The slower GDP growth is attributed to a decline in consumer spending, a critical component of economic activity. This deceleration is expected to help contain inflationary pressures, thereby influencing the Federal Reserve's (Fed) policy trajectory. As a result of these developments, market participants now anticipate a more dovish stance from the Fed, potentially leading to lower interest rates in the near future.
The impact of the revised GDP figures was immediately felt in the bond markets. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note, which had reached a four-week peak of 4.63%, retreated to 4.55%. This decline in yields made the US Dollar less attractive, providing support for gold prices.
From a technical perspective, our analysis aligns with previous forecasts that anticipated a bullish impulse for gold. The price action is currently finding significant liquidity from key demand areas, suggesting that the market is preparing for a further upward movement. Our initial target remains at $2,400, based on the technical signals and market conditions.
The footprint analysis reinforces this outlook. It shows that gold prices are drawing liquidity from the demand zones established in the previous trading sessions. This accumulation of liquidity is a positive sign, indicating that buyers are stepping in at these levels, thus supporting a higher price trajectory.
In summary, the combination of weaker-than-expected US GDP growth, reduced consumer spending, and declining Treasury yields has created a favorable environment for gold. The technical indicators also support a bullish outlook, with the price action confirming our expectations of a continued upward trend. Investors should monitor upcoming economic data and Fed communications for further insights into the potential direction of gold prices.
Gold Futures H4 Footprint
Gold Futures Daily Footprint Chart
Gold Market Update: Geopolitical Tensions and Fed Rhetoric On Tuesday, the US Dollar gained renewed strength during the American trading session as risk sentiment deteriorated due to escalating geopolitical tensions between Israel and Gaza. Concurrently, hawkish comments from Minneapolis Federal Reserve (Fed) President Neel Kashkari drove US Treasury bond yields higher, which in turn boosted the Greenback from its weekly lows against major currencies.
Geopolitical Developments
Israeli forces shelled a tent camp in a designated “safe zone” west of Rafah, resulting in the deaths of at least 21 people, including 13 women and girls. This incident marks another mass killing of Palestinian civilians. In response, the UN Security Council convened an emergency meeting to address Israel’s ground invasion of Rafah. Additionally, Spain, Ireland, and Norway formally recognized the state of Palestine, further intensifying geopolitical tensions.
Market Reaction
These developments led investors to seek safety in the US Dollar, reducing the appeal of Gold as a traditional safe-haven asset. The flight to the Greenback underscores the market's preference for stability amid heightened uncertainty.
Technical Analysis: Gold
From a technical perspective, Gold is currently retesting areas with a high concentration of bullish orders on the Footprint Daily chart. Despite the recent pullback, the outlook remains positive, and we maintain a long position on Gold. The ongoing geopolitical tensions and fluctuating risk sentiment are expected to continue influencing Gold prices in the near term.
Summary
The combination of escalating geopolitical tensions and hawkish Fed rhetoric has reinforced the US Dollar's position, while the technical setup for Gold suggests potential for further gains following the recent correction. Investors should closely monitor developments in the Middle East and upcoming Fed statements for further market cues.
GOLD → The news will determine the medium-term outlookFX:XAUUSD is updating the low and forming a false break of support. Fundamental and technical background is negative. A quick retest of 2328 may lead to a fall, but there is NEWS ahead!
Before the news, gold goes into a local flat 2360 - 2330. The market is gathering potential and liquidity before the news. GDP and Initial Jobless Claims are ahead. This time traders expect an extremely low GDP: 1.6% This is generally negative for the US market, in general this figure is logical based on general market indicators, but traders pay attention to the actual data. It is also worth paying attention to Initial Jobless Claims.
Technically, under the current circumstances, a decline is possible after a retest of resistance. But, if the news is contradictory, the price may break the resistance, consolidate above 0.236 Fibo and head towards 0.618 (25-30% probability).
Resistance levels: 2343, 2347, 2354
Support levels: 2335, 2328, 2306
The gold market is dominated by bears on the background of general economic conditions. Globally, the trend is still bearish and a correction is forming within it. Today is a purely fundamental day and you should not get into the market before the news.
Regards R. Linda!
GOLD → Break of the support of consolidation. Next is 2300?FX:XAUUSD is still bearish. The price is trying to leave the corrective range, which is formed after the false breakdown of support. The market is preparing to go lower.
On the 1H timeframe it is becoming clear who is showing dominance in the market. There is no strong buy yet, apparently, before the GDP and PCE publication on Thursday and Friday, no one dares to enter the market early. (Presumably, the dollar may get another dose of support, which could weaken gold even more). I think that in the short term the price may retest 2335.
Resistance levels: 2354, 2364
Support levels: 2335, 2328, 2306
Consolidation of the price below the previously broken local uptrend support (dotted line), will be a confirmation of the market's intention to go down. A quick retest of 2335 may lead to a break of support and further fall to 2300
Regards R. Linda!
GOLD → Consolidation before distribution. $2,400 or $2,300?FX:XAUUSD after a false breakdown of the support of the range is forming a correction, but within the upward consolidation channel. The fundamental background is still negative.
There is no strong news in the next two days, so the fundamental background remains the same. There is no strong buyer on the market yet and thus, gold may continue its downward movement if it breaks through the support area: the rising line or the approximate area of 2340. A break of the local uptrending support line will move the market into the realization phase, which will be a continuation of the decline. The structure may be broken if the price rises and consolidates above 2354. In this case, the price may head towards 2374.
Resistance levels: 2354, 2358, 2370
Support levels: 2340, 2335, 2325
I expect that with high probability the decline may continue. But in the phase of waiting for strong news (Thursday and Friday), the market may gather liquidity.
Regards R. Linda!
GOLD corrects strongly, FOMC minutes, main trend areaGold fell sharply under pressure from profit-taking activities in the market and the Fed's (FOMC) meeting minutes.
According to the Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes, although US monetary policy has become a secondary factor in the gold market, continued inflation could cause additional selling pressure as it could force The Federal Reserve must adjust its monetary policy, personally, the Fed is unlikely to increase gold interest rates again.
Gold's rally cooled as investors took profits and traders cut bets on the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates this year.
With the release of the Federal Reserve meeting minutes, market expectations of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates continued to decline, leading to increased purchases of the US Dollar, making gold expensive. than for holders of other currencies.
According to minutes from the U.S. central bank's April 30-May 1 meeting, Fed officials said it will take longer than previously expected to build confidence that inflation will pick up. 2%.
OANDA:XAUUSD is known as an inflation hedge, but the opportunity cost of holding this non-yielding asset increases as interest rates rise.
Recent economic data shows inflation trending downward, but Fed policymakers said the central bank should wait a few more months to ensure inflation actually returns to its 2% target first. when cutting interest rates.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, after gold broke through most of the key technical levels and it is now also in a key price area for a technical bullish outlook with a long-term downtrend and moving averages 21 days (EMA21).
In the immediate future, if the gold price returns above the 0.236% Fibonacci level, it will have enough conditions to recover with a short-term uptrend from the price channel.
During the day, the trend of gold price is still downtrend with notable technical levels that will be listed as follows.
Support: 2,366 – 2,353USD
Resistance: 2,384 – 2,400 – 2,410USD
🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2406 - 2404
⚰️SL: 2410
⬆️TP1: 2399
⬆️TP2: 2394
🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2344 - 2346
⚰️SL: 2340
⬆️TP1: 2351
⬆️TP2: 2356
Continue to adjust, pay attention to $2,400 level, FOMC minutesIn the Asian market on May 22, spot gold suddenly dropped in the short term but did not affect the main trend. Gold price fell sharply from the highest level of the session as of the time this article was completed, which was 2,426 USD/oz, and set a new intraday low at 2,412 USD/oz.
OANDA:XAUUSD fell from record highs earlier this week as the Federal Reserve became cautious about cutting interest rates. However, geopolitical risks in the Middle East still boost safe-haven demand, which could limit the decline in gold prices.
Fed Governor John Waller said Tuesday that it will take "several more months" of good inflation data before considering an interest rate cut. Atlanta Fed President Bostic said Tuesday he is in no rush to cut interest rates but wants to wait longer to ensure inflation doesn't start to fluctuate.
Fed officials warned the Fed needs more evidence that inflation is easing before it starts cutting interest rates, emphasizing that the Fed could keep interest rates high for a longer period of time. This could boost the US Dollar and put gold prices in US Dollars under pressure.
Gold's decline may be limited amid US-China trade tensions, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and strong demand from central banks and buyers in Asia, which could support gold subsidy.
Later in the trading day on Wednesday, gold traders will closely monitor the minutes of the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and Goolsby's speech from Federal Reserve officials.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
Gold has adjusted down, but the downward adjustments are not damaging the main uptrend with the uptrend from the short-term price channel and the main uptrend trend.
During the day, the uptrend in gold prices will be noticed by support levels from 2,410 – 2,400 USD and as long as gold remains in the price channel, it will still have a technical upside prospect.
Even if gold is sold off below the 0.236% Fibonacci extension, the decline will still be limited by support from the trend and EMA21.
Overall assessment, the technical picture for gold prices will continue to lean towards the possibility of price increase with short-term technical levels noted as follows.
Support: 2,410 – 2,400USD
Resistance: 2,430 – 2,450USD
🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2443 - 2441
⚰️SL: 2447
⬆️TP1: 2436
⬆️TP2: 2431
🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2396 - 2398
⚰️SL: 2392
⬆️TP1: 2403
⬆️TP2: 2408
XAUUSD: Close to the best medium term buy entry.Gold is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 50.016, MACD = 12.800, ADX = 25.902) as it completed today the second green 1D candle in a row. We don't think that the current bearish wave of the 1 month Channel Up has bottomed yet, since the HL trendline is a little lower around 2,315. We are prepared to buy after the 1D RSI crosses over its MA trendline and validates the bullish breakout. As with the May 20th HH, we are targeting the 1.236 Fibonacci extension (TP = 2,475).
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GOLD → Correction after strong sell-offs. What's next?FX:XAUUSD is trading in the range of 2335-2397. Bulls are trying to keep the price from falling, countering the market in the 2330-2340 area. A rebound may reach local liquidity zones.
At the moment the market is bearish but also volatile. Any news could have a strong impact on the dolar and gold. In the mid-term, since after a false break of support a rebound is forming, which is developing within a possible fourth wave, this movement may reach the local liquidity areas 2354, 2368 before a possible further fall. It is worth paying attention to the nearest resistance areas and any market reaction in the form of weakness may give a corresponding reaction - a decline.
Resistance levels: 2354, 2368, 2374
Support levels: 2335
Today is a holiday in the USA and the market volatility may be low. A correction is forming, the purpose of which is to collect liquidity. The fall may continue from local reversal zones.
Regards R. Linda!
GOLD corrects, uptrend remains stable, market newsOn the Asian market, gold is delivered immediately OANDA:XAUUSD suddenly dropped sharply from the session's high of 2,433.13 USD/ounce. Gold price has just touched 2,410 USD/ounce, setting the lowest level of the day as of the time this article was completed.
News of the death of the Iranian president has increased tensions in the region and gold prices have increased due to safe-haven demand. However, comments from Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Michael Barr put pressure on gold prices.
Barr, the Fed vice chairman for regulatory affairs, said Monday that interest rates will need to remain at current levels for longer to bring inflation back to the sustainable target level. “The Fed needs to give tightening policy more time to continue to work,” Barr said.
New geopolitical news in the Middle East
New news from the Middle East situation on May 20, the prosecutor of the International Criminal Court applied for an arrest warrant for Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Galante on suspicion of war crimes.
According to the prosecutor's statement, prosecutors have "reasonable grounds to believe" that Prime Minister Netanyahu and Israeli Defense Minister Galante are responsible for the "war crimes and counterattacks" that occurred. in the Gaza Strip “from at least October 8, 2023”.
Traders are monitoring developments in the Middle East after Iran's president and foreign minister were killed in a helicopter crash. Additionally, in Saudi Arabia, OPEC's largest oil producer, King Salman is being treated for a lung infection.
In general, the market is lacking truly notable developments that create significant fluctuations, so gold is likely to correct, but in terms of the overall picture, although gold prices are limited in their upward momentum by comments from officials. Fed, but it still has a lot of fundamental room to increase prices.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold has corrected significantly from its new all-time high set yesterday, a correction that was also price point to the 0.382% trend-following Fibonacci extension.
However, the gold price still has an uptrend mainly from trend and a short-term uptrend from price channel and all the support and technical conditions support the possibility of price increase.
Once gold breaks the 0.382% Fibonacci extension level, it will continue to open a new bullish cycle with a new era high targeted at the 0.50% Fibonacci point.
As long as gold remains above the original price point of 2,400 USD and the 0.236% Fibonacci level along the price channel, it still has short-term bullish prospects.
During the day, the uptrend in technical gold prices will be noticed again by the following price levels.
Support: 2,400 – 2,398USD
Resistance: 2,422 – 2,430USD
🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2457 - 2455
⚰️SL: 2461
⬆️TP1: 2450
⬆️TP2: 2445
🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2389 - 2391
⚰️SL: 2385
⬆️TP1: 2396
⬆️TP2: 2401
GOLD → There is no big buyer in the market. Moving to 2300?FX:XAUUSD continues to update lows amid a bearish wave based on fundamental (economic) reasons. The market after a pullback may be willing to continue falling.
On D1 the outlook and situation is in the hands of bears. There is no big buyer on the market, who could turn the market around (not yet). Accordingly, a correction is forming due to liquidity captured by the false breakdown relative to 2335. Within the counter-trend correction, the price may test the density zone of 2354 before further declines. A pre-breakdown consolidation or a quick retest of 2335 will form the potential for further decline.
Resistance levels: 2354, 2374
Support levels: 2335, 2306
False breakdown and stop from 2335 is most likely temporary. Keep an eye on local resistances, a false breakdown could be a motivation for sellers.
Regards R. Linda!
GOLD → The mood has shifted to bearish. A correction?FX:XAUUSD is forming a bearish wave, within which it is declining from 2400 to 2350. The price is testing strong support amid the changing sentiment.
Within a bullish trend, after testing the high of 2450, the market catches up with a correction wave based on fundamentals. The market is caught by a wave of sell-offs, which can be continued after a pullback and retest of local areas of liquidity. From 2354 we expect a rebound to the above-mentioned areas and further we should follow the price reaction to the liquidity areas.
Initial Jobless Claims and Purchasing Managers' Index are ahead. Traders are neutral towards the dollar, but amid the general policy, the dollar index may get support, which may have a peculiar effect on the gold, until the market finds new reasons to rise.
Resistance levels: 2374, 2383, 2397
Support levels: 2354, 2336, 2306
Technically and fundamentally the market is still bullish, but a correction is forming within the uptrend, which may take a little longer.
Regards R. Linda!
XAUUSD Possible consolidation for the whole Summer.Gold (XAUUSD) is seeing strong selling this week following Monday's High, which was also an All Time High (ATH). The rejection took place very close to the Higher Highs trend-line that started back in early 2023.
So far this is just a technical pull-back to test the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since February 29, and not a stronger correction. Both the price action though and the 1D MACD patterns, resemble the trading sequences of April - May 2023 and November - December 2023. After the Higher High top, they both turned sideways for 3 months and both hit the 1D MA100 (green trend-line). The April - May 2023 even dropped lower but the September 2023 correction was done on fundamentals and not technical reasons.
As a result, we expect the next three months, i.e. the whole Summer to be at least a sideways price action/ consolidation, which by mid July may make contact with the 1D MA100. What this tells us is there will be opportunities to buy low and sell high in order to make profit on the medium-term.
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