GOLD new all-time high, technical area can make correctionsOANDA:XAUUSD continues to make new all-time highs, while Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has reiterated that recent job growth data and higher-than-expected inflation data will not materially change the the general situation of economic policy this year (the Fed is expected to start its interest rate cutting cycle in June).
Fed Jerome Powell
Powell said that “if the economy expands as we expect,” he and his colleagues at the Fed largely agree that lower policy rates would be appropriate “sometime this year.” ”.
Speeches from Federal Reserve officials, strong jobs data and a decline in business activity in the services sector weighed on the dollar. A slight decline in the US Dollar will create a boost for safe-haven precious metals.
Investors still expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates for the first time at its policy meeting on June 11-12, although recent strong economic data has tempered expectations. Overall, it doesn't have much impact.
Gold, a hedge against inflation and a safe haven in times of political and economic uncertainty, has risen more than 11% year to date, thanks to strong Federal Reserve buying and demand. safe haven.
Macro data
The ADP report showed that U.S. private companies last month saw their biggest hiring gain since last July, led by the leisure and hospitality industry.
Job growth was strong in all industries, but employment fell in professional services.
US ADP employment increased by 184,000 people in March, the largest increase since July 2023.
“ADP data is not a game changer.” Along with the upward revision to February's data, this is another small piece of evidence that the US economy continues to grow, which should continue to support rising yields. Even in the case of better data than gold, there is still a lot of momentum, and we can even see the dollar market and bond yields rising along with gold.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said the US non-manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) fell to 51.4 in March from 52.6 in February. This is the second consecutive month of decline. continued since the index recovered in January. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the services sector, which accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy.
Services inflation is also falling due to slowing demand. The survey showed that the input price index fell to 53.4 in March from 58.6 in February, the lowest since March 2020. Data last week showed inflation in the services sector, excluding energy and housing, cooled sharply in February after accelerating in January.
The geopolitical situation drives the need for shelter
Early on the morning of April 4 local time, the deputy governor in charge of security in Sistan and Baluchestan province in southeastern Iran said that military headquarters in the province's Rask and Chabahar cities were attacked by terrorists. The terrorist organization "Army of Justice" participated in this terrorist attack.
The deputy governor in charge of provincial security said that in Lask city, terrorists tried to break into the Revolutionary Guard base but were unsuccessful and the conflict is still ongoing.
It is known that 3 Iranian soldiers were killed in the battle with the terrorist organization "Army of Justice".
Iran blames Israel for the deadly airstrike on its consulate in the Syrian capital Damascus on Monday. The attack killed seven officers.
Tehran on Tuesday pledged to retaliate for the attack, seen as a major escalation in the Israeli-Palestinian war.
Geopolitical risks are becoming increasingly prominent, which is beneficial for safe-haven demand, especially assets sensitive to geopolitical instability such as gold.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
In terms of technical structure, the gold price still has all the bullish factors. All-time levels are continuously refreshed and currently gold slows down to reach the original price of 2,300 USD and the area near the 0.786% Fibonacci extension, this area is expected to create short-term corrections first. as the main uptrend continues.
Since gaining support from the $2,265 level, readers noted in yesterday's edition gold has increased significantly with a break above the 0.618% Fibonacci extension making this level support. Current nearest support.
The gold market is likely to receive downward corrections as the Relative Strength Index reaches overbought levels, a short-term price decline that could retest the support area of the upper edge of the price channel and the 0.618% Fibonacci extension.
In the short term, the main trend of gold price is still an uptrend and may adjust in the short term. Notable technical levels are listed below:
Resistance: 2306 - 2315 - 2320 - 2330 - 2335
Support: 2297 - 2288 - 2282 - 2266
