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GOLD → Huge imbalance. Updating the highs. What to expect?OANDA:XAUUSD is making another rally and updating the global high to 2075.4, but at the same time there is a huge imbalance in the market. Distributive retest of the resistance zone and several preconditions allow me to think about a possible correction. In the coming week we will encounter several important news that will determine the market mood and possible medium-term prospects for trading. It is worth paying attention to the following news: SP PMI, ISM PMI (Bullish expectations) ADP NonFarm (Bullish expectations) Initial Jobless Claims (Bearish expectations) NonFarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate (Bullish Expectations) The bigger reaction is the unexpected nuances regarding the expected data. Since it is news, it is impossible to know in advance what will happen in the market. In the Middle East we notice the aggravation of the situation, but globally the situation does not change, and in addition, the TVC:DXY and OANDA:XAUUSD have not paid much attention to it lately. Increased interest in the gold market is connected with the general world crisis + decrease of dollar indices. Gold in the distribution phase is testing the strong level of 2069.8, the price closing above the resistance level, it may be another trap before further decline. After this maneuver, another pool of liquidity was formed to continue the growth, which only increases the imbalance of forces in the direction of buyers since the strong rally of gold (the rally began in early November due to the conflict in the Middle East). The chart more clearly shows the liquidity and disalignment zones. Market managers cannot allow further rallies in such a critical situation as they may lose money in the moment. Reasons why I expect a false breakdown and further decline: Strong distribution continues for a month. this maneuver has wasted all the potential, which, from a technical point of view, will not be enough to break through the 2070 area. Huge imbalance on the buyers' side Relative decline in volume on a false breakout Death Cross Positive DXY Fundamental Expectation from the open: The market may test 2069-2070 resistance on Monday and try to form a local bullish momentum and make a new high, but a false breakout may follow in the mid term. Consolidation or retest of 2069-2070 level from below may confirm the market's intention, which will start the final decline of the asset towards the mentioned zones. Regards R. Linda!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
36
GOLD | Record Zone as Dow Breaks OutVolatility spiked across many assets last week, producing notable breakouts and breakdowns in the process. First off, U.S. Treasury yields plummeted across the board, with the 2-year yield sinking below its 200-day simple moving average and reaching its lowest level since early June at 4.54%. The market dynamics also benefited precious metals, triggering a strong rally among many of them. Gold spot prices, for example, rose by 3.5% and came within striking distance from overtaking its record near $2,075. Looking ahead, if U.S. interest rate expectations continue to shift lower, U.S. yields are likely to come under further downward pressure, setting the stage for a weaker dollar. Against this backdrop, risk assets and precious metals could remain supported moving into 2024. Upcoming U.S. data, including ISM services PMI and non-farm payrolls (NFP), will give us the opportunity to better assess the Fed's monetary policy outlook. Soft economic figures could reinforce dovish expectations, while strong numbers could result in the unwinding of rate-cut bets. The latter scenario might induce a reversal in recent trends across key assets. For a deeper dive into the catalysts that could guide financial markets and drive volatility in the coming trading sessions, explore the DailyFX’s carefully curated week-ahead forecasts.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by TVS-Trader
GOLD the world has set a new recordThe world gold price listed on Kitco is at 2,126 USD/ounce, up 54 USD/ounce compared to early yesterday morning. Thus, today's gold price continues to set a new record, the highest ever. Precious metal prices rose as comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell increased traders' confidence that the US central bank is done tightening monetary policy and Interest rates may be cut from March next year. In his speech, Mr. Powell said that the Fed is not currently thinking about lowering interest rates. However, analysts say it is clear that the Fed will not raise interest rates as the economy begins to slow. This will cause gold prices to continue to increase sharply in the near future. Markets predict the Fed will begin cutting interest rates in March and that by the end of next year, interest rates will be below 4%. In addition, gold is being strongly supported by seasonal factors. According to statistics over the past 6 years, gold has always increased during Christmas.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
🖥 GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [December 04 - 08]🖥 GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - This week, gold prices have continuously increased sharply after breaking the important resistance level at 2,010 USD/oz. Gold price at one point climbed to 2,075 USD/oz and closed the week at 2,072 USD/oz. Although the FED Chairman's statement is still heavily "hawkish", the gold price has almost ignored this as it continuously escalates. Some market analysts say that while the Fed may not be ready to cut interest rates anytime soon, it clearly won't be able to continue raising interest rates as the economy begins to slow. The CME FedWatch tool also shows that markets are currently assessing a more than 50% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates in the first quarter of 2024. In addition, gold prices have also been supported by many other factors, such as central banks are still continuously buying gold, physical gold demand has reached its peak season in Asia, and geopolitical tensions are increasing. Political tensions in the Middle East and Eastern Europe are still escalating, which will stimulate haven demand for gold... Next week, the most important data is non-farm payrolls (NFP) expected to reach 185,000 jobs. If NFP increases higher than expected, the FED may extend the period of maintaining interest rates at high levels, negatively impacting gold prices next week. On the contrary, if NFP is lower than this expected level, this factor will support gold prices next week. 📌Technically, after breaking the 2010 resistance level according to chart D1, the gold price almost reached the old peak of 2080. If this mark is broken, gold will create a new high price, corresponding to the Fibonacci Extension milestones. , the 100 fibo mark is above 2100, while the 161.8 fibo mark is above 2200. The trading plan for next week will consider selling around the 2130 mark, and buying if the price returns to retest the 2010 resistance level.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TVS-Trader
🌟📈 GOLD: New All-Time Highs - A Heavenly Surge! 🚀💰🌟📈 GOLD: New All-Time Highs - A Heavenly Surge! 🚀💰 🔍 Analysis: Gold has just achieved an incredible milestone, setting new all-time highs! This isn't just a fleeting moment; it's the beginning of a potential journey towards ambitious targets at 2134, 2250, and possibly even 2400. Let's dive into what this means for the market and how you can capitalize on this golden opportunity. 📊✨ 1️⃣ Why This Matters: The surge to new highs isn't just a number; it reflects a significant shift in the market sentiment and economic indicators. Understanding the drivers behind this move is crucial for strategic trading decisions. 🌍🔑 2️⃣ Technical Perspective: We're observing some fascinating patterns and trends that align with this breakthrough. I'll break down the key technical levels and indicators that signaled this rise, providing insights for both seasoned traders and beginners. 📉📚 3️⃣ Future Outlook: With gold reaching new heights, what can we expect moving forward? We'll explore potential scenarios and strategies to stay ahead in this dynamic market. 🚦🚀 🤝 Educational Takeaway: Whether you're looking to trade gold or just understand its impact on the broader market, this event offers valuable lessons. Stay tuned as we unpack the significance of this historic high. 🎓💼 🔔 Stay Informed: Follow for more updates, analysis, and expert insights into the world of trading. Your success is our mission! 📈🌟 One Love, The FXPROFESSOR ♡ we had called it at a lovely time:
COMEX:GC1!Long
by FX_Professor
1
XAUUSD: Deceiptful 1D Golden Cross on All Time High territory?Gold entered the All Time High territory on heated overbought technicals on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 73.661, MACD = 29.580, ADX = 38.098) so far coming only a fraction away from hitting the May 4th 2023 ATH. Practically this is a Resistance line that formed long term tops and rejected the price another two times, on March 8th 2022 and August 7th 2020. The least immediate decline has been -6.15% (May 4th 2023) then -8.62% (March 8th 2022) and the maximum of -10.35% (August 7th 2020). Keep in mind that all three selloffs hit (or nearly hit) the 1D MA50. This time however, the market faces a significantly altered dynamic as along with the ATH test today, it formed a 1D Golden Cross. Every time since The August 7th 2020 High, Gold formed a 1D Golden Cross, a rally always followed. So far we've had four such formations into rallies. If the highest ever Golden Cross can be enough to invalidate the ATH and close a week over it, then we can expect the psychological level of 2,100 to be tested immediatelly. If not, then a minimum of -6.15% decline will send Gold to 1,955 and most likely by that time under the 1D MA50. See how our prior idea has worked: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by InvestingScope
GOLD → Consolidation before the news. What could happen? OANDA:XAUUSD continues to consolidate in the 2050 - 2035 range. Powell speaks again today, earlier the US market got a higher GDP and good Initial Jobless Claims data, how will this affect his speech and how might gold react? The TVC:DXY is testing local levels, ahead of ISM Manufacturing PMI & Prices and also at 16:00 and 19:00 GMT Powell will speak. US inflation is declining and there are indicators for that, but the dollar is strengthening, which provokes gold to form a consolidation. We are now confused by the death cross on D1, but again, since the gold is in a global sideways range, maybe we should not pay so much attention to this signal. At the moment gold is testing the level of 2048.77 with a false breakdown. On H1 we see strong consolidation, range boundary tests and false breakdowns. The market will wait for the news and most likely there will be no strong movements before that. The price is gaining liquidity before Powell's speech. An actual rate cut is out of the question now, we will only need to hear positive sentiment or hints. If Powell hints more strongly about an imminent change of monetary policy to a more loyal one, the dollar index will resume its bearish trend and gold will head towards the upper global boundary of 2059 - 2067. But, as a force majeure, negative news for gold, the realization of a false breakout and death cross, the price could quite possibly test both trend support, 2022, and the far liquidity zone 2010 - 2020, but it will not change the medium-term and long-term outlook for now. The market could test the global high by the end of the year (perhaps even soon). Support levels: 2038, 2035, 2022 Resistance levels: 2049, 2059 I am waiting for the publication of news, which will determine the short and medium term scenario for gold. The probability that the price will update the high increases as the Fed's sentiment improves. Regards R. Linda!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
11
GOLD weakened due to the recovery of the USDWorld gold prices weakened yesterday as the USD recovered and investors were waiting for important inflation data to assess whether the US will cut interest rates sooner than expected. This precious metal decreased slightly in the last session before the PCE data was released. He assessed that the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data in the third quarter was positive, but this data could not affect the market's bets on the Fed cutting interest rates. Recently, Fed officials warned of the possibility of interest rate cuts in the coming months and expected growth to slow and inflation to continue to decline. These comments pulled US 10-year bond yields down to a two-and-a-half-month low of 4.2470%. At this session, the dollar fell to near a three-month low, making gold cheaper for buyers with other currencies. Currently, investors are focusing their attention on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the meeting taking place today, December 1.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD → Price in range, correction may go lower OANDA:XAUUSD is forming another range of 2050 - 2038. Retest of resistance failed to renew the maximum, thus the market may begin to form a correction to support. The TVC:DXY has been strengthening since yesterday on the back of positive US GDP data. The expectation was 4.9, the actual data: 5.2, which is positive for the dollar. But the controversial situation here is that a more positive GDP has a greater impact not on the pricing of the dollar, but on the Fed's stance. Hence, with bullish data, Powell is getting closer to initiating policy easing and rate cuts. Since gold is in a range and already testing the support at 2038, it seems that the correction phase can be stopped either at this level or test areas lower, for example: 0.382 fibo, 2035, 0.5 fibo or global trend support. A strong rally ends with a correction and it is hard to say where this correction will stop. Support levels: 2037.7, 2035, 2030, 2022 Resistance levels: 2050, 2052, 2059 There are important news today, it is worth paying attention to the Initial Jobless Claims, even relatively good news for the dollar (related to inflation) can weaken its price, as the market is waiting for news related to monetary policy. Regards R. Linda!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
34
XAUUSD Is it time to finally break above the 3 year Resistance?Gold (XAUUSD) entered yesterday the Resistance Zone that has been in effect for more than 3 years (40 months actually) since the week of August 03 2020. The main characteristic of this zone is that even though the 1W (weekly) candles broke within it, they all closed eventually back below it. And this is why we make this analysis today on the 1W time-frame instead of the 1D, which is about to complete a Golden Cross. The question on everyone's mind and rightly so is, will Gold finally break past this Resistance or it will be emphatically rejected into a new round of selling as the previous 3 times? Of course there is no definitive answer but we need to look at the pattern dynamics infront of us. The current rally since the October 02 (1W) Low has a distinct set of features that wasn't present in the other times the Resistance Zone was tested. Its bottom was made exactly on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) and the first pull-back found support and rebounded on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line). This indicates bullish bias of buying on key demand trend-lines that we didn't see on the previous tests. The 1W MA50 rebound in particular basically invalidated the similarities with the May 31 2021 rejection, which broke below the 1W MA50 and was later rejected on it, turning it into a Resistance. So what's next? Well despite the obvious different buying pressure on this rally, if the current 1W candle closes below the Resistance Zone, it will be a bearish sign. And the fact that it is such a long-term Resistance, makes a potential sell-off of significant magnitude. If however it closes inside the Resistance Zone, Gold will have made the first step after more than 3 years to finally attempt to break above it in December and make a proper new All Time High (May 01 2023 was just a marginally ATH). What do you think will prevail? Rejection or new ATH? BONUS MATERIAL See how successful and accurate trading on a long-term time-frame can be: ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by TradingShot
GOLD | US Q3 GDP Revised Up To 5.2%, DXY BouncesUS GDP KEY POINTS: - US GDP Q3 (2nd Est) Actual 5.2% Vs 2.1% Previous. - GDP Price Index QoQ (2nd Est) Actual 3.5% Vs 1.7% Previous. - Markets Continue to Price in More Aggressive Rate Cuts from the Fed in 2024, Weighing on the US Dollar. The US economy grew at an annualized rate of 5.2% in Q3 2023, above the forecasted figure of 5% and revised from the initial estimate of 4.9%. The latest GDP estimate is based on more complete data than the previous "advance" estimate. The update showed upward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment and state and local government spending, but there was a downward revision to consumer spending. Residential investment increased faster than expected (6.2% vs 3.9% in the initial estimate), private inventories contributed more to growth, and government spending increased at a faster rate (5.5% vs 4.6%). However, consumer spending only rose by 3.6%, slightly lower than the initial estimate but still the largest gain since Q4 2021. Disposable personal incomeincreased $144.0 billion, or 2.9 percent, in the third quarter, an upward revision of $48.2 billion from the previous estimate.Real disposable personal incomeincreased 0.1 percent, an upward revision of 1.1 percentage points. US ECONOMY The US Dollar lost ground despite the data today. There is optimism for earlier rate cuts in 2024, with Bill Ackman suggesting the Fed may act sooner. Fed Policymakers have taken a dovish tone, although Bowman remains slightly hawkish. The US economy is expected to slow down in Q4 due to higher borrowing costs affecting hiring and spending. The Service sector remains a concern for the Federal Reserve due to high demand and elevated prices. It will be interesting to see how the US economy fares in late 2023 and early 2024 in its fight against inflation. MARKET REACTION OANDA:XAUUSD Following the data release the dollar index remained relatively unchanged which shouldn’t come as a surprise. Since then, the DXY has actually retreated a bit but still remain marginally up for the day as it looks to bounce back from 4-month lows. Gold prices surprised me yesterday if I am being honest but the explosion above the $2000 mark came about largely as markets priced in more rate cuts from the Fed in 2024. At current price levels there is not a lot to analyze from a technical standpoint as price has barely traded at these levels in the past. However, should we fail to break above the $2050 mark and given the speed of the rally yesterday we could get some form of retracement. Gold bulls will hope for a weekly candle close above the $2000 mark which would be a meaningful step toward further upside.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TVS-Trader
1
GOLD continues to climb to the top after the GDP reportWorld gold prices today continued to climb to a peak after the latest report showed that US GDP in the third quarter increased by 5.2% instead of the estimate of only 4.9%. Today's world gold price listed on Kitco is at 2,042 USD/ounce, up 2 USD/ounce compared to early yesterday morning. Precious metal prices continued to climb to their peak after the latest report showed that US GDP in the third quarter increased by 5.2% instead of the estimate of only 4.9%. Stronger GDP data boosted the USD and put slight pressure on gold in mid-week trading. However, expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) may cut interest rates in the first half of next year continue to keep bullion near a 7-month high.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
GOLD → Correction after a false breakdown. US GDP aheadOANDA:XAUUSD reaches the previously mentioned 2050 area a bit faster than we expected. The rally is followed by a logical correction. But how long will the correction last? On D1 we see a counter-trend correction in TVC:DXY . The correction may last until the publication of GDP related news, which is published today at 15:30 GMT. Analysts are expecting the same level of gdp that was released in November. GDP is the broadest measure of economic activity and a key indicator of the health of the economy. Gold may test one of these liquidity areas before rising further. The potential and increased interest will continue to forimize the bullish trend, but the price cannot go up all the time. It is worth paying attention to the liquidity areas: 2037, 2035, 2033, 2029, as well as 0.382 fibo, 0.5 fibo. False breakdown of one of these areas and subsequent price consolidation above the level may end the correction. Resistance levels: 2038, 2042 Support levels: 2037, 2035, 0.382 fibo, 2033, 0.5 fibo. Expecting a correction. The price may head towards any of the mentioned zones before further growth. It is impossible to determine in advance where the price will stop, it will show only the reaction of the price to one of the levels. Regards R. Linda!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
23
GOLD → Consolidation 2010-2018. What can happen? OANDA:XAUUSD within a strong bullish trend is forming a consolidation in the 2018 - 2010 range. Lower volatility is forming and several candlestick indications are forming that price may test support before further distribution. On D1 we can see that the leading asset, in our case it is the TVC:DXY , is testing support, which may trigger a correction to local resistance, which will have a corresponding effect on the slave asset (gold may also start a correction within this range). The trend is bullish, moving averages and key levels support this direction, there is no sense to talk about any medium-term and long-term sales now. The market within the consolidation will form a lot of opportunities to gather as much liquidity as possible before further movement in one or another direction. Consequently, border touches, false breakdowns and long shadows can be formed relative to the 2018-2010 range (consolidation). But this is not the only scenario. A breakdown is possible with a quick retest with reduced volatility. In the long term, we should wait for a breakout of resistance. Support levels: 2010, 2007, 2004, 2000 Resistance levels: 2018, 2020, 2022 I expect consolidation within the range with the subsequent breakout of resistance, which can happen after a correction or after a quick retest of 2018 Regards R. Linda!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
13
GOLD POSSIBLE 100+ pip trade Hello traders , gold broke a strong resistance on monday with the daily candle closing above. the market has been ranging since . with the weakening of the US Dollar to me gold may still push to the upside there is alot of potential. if the price manages to break above the range with an hourly candle id enter on a retest. but the safest entry is to wait for the price to come down and give a hammer on the support of the range which also serves as a support that used to be resistance . well those are the two trend following scenarios that i see.
EIGHTCAP:XAUUSDLong
by xAB777
GOLD continued increaseGold prices today (November 28) increased slightly. Although the precious metals market is having some significant upward momentum, analysts are wondering whether gold can reach an all-time high in the near future. come or not. The gold market is benefiting from new market expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will soon cut interest rates. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the market sees a 25% chance that interest rates will rise as early as March; However, the market sees a higher likelihood of an interest rate cut in May or June 2024. Looking at gold's technical price action, some analysts say breaking above $2,010 an ounce is a key hurdle the market needs to overcome to have a chance at reaching all-time highs. Investors are now awaiting revised US third-quarter GDP figures to be released on Wednesday and the core consumer price index, the US Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure. ), on Thursday.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD | Challenging key technical resistance levelsTECHNICAL ANALYSIS OANDA:XAUUSD Gold prices rose on Monday, supported by falling US bond yields and a weaker US dollar. With recent performance, the precious metal is up more than 8% since October, moving above the psychological $2,000 level – a technical signal that has reinforced the metal's constructive trend. To have stronger confidence in the bullish thesis and to validate the potential for further upside, a clear and decisive move above $2,010/$2,015 is needed – a key resistance area that has consistently hindering progress since the beginning of the year. While overcoming this hurdle could pose a challenge for the bulls, a breakout could fuel a rally to $2,060, followed by $2,085, the highest in the month 5. In case gold is rejected from its current position, the asset could trend towards support between $1,980 and $1,975. Price is likely to stabilize in this area on a bearish reversal, but a push below this floor could result in a pullback towards the 200-day simple moving average located around the $1,950 mark. Below this threshold, attention may focus on $1,937.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TVS-Trader
GOLD → Retest of previously broken support is possible OANDA:XAUUSD has been forging a bullish momentum since the opening of the session and updated its global highs to $2018. The market under the pressure of increased interest, weak dollar and fundamental factor is likely to continue its growth. In the next few days, no important news that could change the situation is expected, therefore, the favorable fundamental background that supports the market may push the price even higher. If we look at the TVC:DXY , the dollar has room to fall, as the dollar has not reached its target yet and it is still a long way away. Gold is moving out of the range and the resistance at 2010 is now a support. There is a high probability that the price can still test this support area before rising further. The moving averages are supporting the bull market and the price is going to reach one of the important targets: 2022 Support levels: 2010, 2004 Resistance levels: 2018, 2022 I expect that the local momentum may pause to retest the support. The market may head towards the nearest level from below for a retest before rising further. Targets are indicated on the chart. Regards R. Linda!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
16
XAUUSD: Channel Up offering trading opportunities.Gold is trading inside a Channel Up on the 4H timeframe since the Nov 12th low. Stable bullish technical outlook on 4H (RSI = 66.543, MACD = 8.550, ADX = 30.155), which calls for an extension of the current price action which is at the bottom of the Channel Up currently, to a new HH. We aim at a +1.96% rise (symmetrical with previous bullish legs), TP = 2,030. Sell if the 4H MA50 breaks (current Support) and target the 4H MA200, our current projected TP = 1,975 but will change depending on when the breakout happens. See how our prior idea has worked: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by InvestingScope
🥇 GOLD - Growth will continue after a pullback Gold continues to strengthen on the trend. This market is attracting more and more investors every day on the background of geopolitical and fundamental factors. I expect the market to continue its upward trend as there are several reasons for this. 1) We are in a strong bullish trend 2) Price is breaking strong support lines today and testing new highs. 2.2 At this point it is worth paying attention to levels such as: 2010, 2007. Use the "false breakout" strategy 3) Gold is getting stronger on the background of attracting investor capital 4) High interest in this market also supports the current trend Targets: 2018, 2020, 2025, 2030
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Gold-Tech
3