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XAUUSD Channel-to-Channel Cycles. New Bull or 1700 next?This is not the first time we chart these Cycles on Gold (XAUUSD), as we did our latest study on September 27 (see chart below) and we were quick to catch the break-out sell on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) towards the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line): This time though, we add the Channel element as well as the unique US10Y/DXY ratio and the mix proves to be quite accurate. As you see every Channel Down (red) is formed on a rising US10Y/DXY ratio, which is naturally expected as both the US10Y and DXY are negatively (inversely) correlated to Gold. Similarly every Channel Up (green) is formed while the US10Y/DXY ratio gets neutralized. Right now the ratio is on the rise, hence the Channel Down on Gold, and the price hit the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time in 11 months (since November 07 2022) and immediately reacted with a bounce. At the same time, the 1W RSI hit the top of the 2-year Support Zone. Every time the RSI hit this Zone, while the US10Y/DXY ratio was rising, Gold started to form its market bottom. The only time this RSI Support Zone got hit and Gold didn't rise was when the ratio was declining (July 11 2022). Right now we have the conditions for a market bottom as the ratio is rising. Next week will be critical as if it closes the candle in green and the RSI reverses, then we can see a 1-month bottom formation that will lead to the new Channel Up. If not, we can't rule a price as low as 1700. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by TradingShot
5
GOLD → Consolidation ahead of #NFP. What to expect?OANDA:XAUUSD has been consolidating for 4 days. The formation is directed to realization at the moment of #NFP publication. The market was in a downtrend for a long time, after which it went into a narrow consolidation, there were no pullbacks at all in the last two weeks Today, at 12:30 GMT NonFarm Payrolls & Unemployment Rate (Sep.) will be published. This is quite important news for short-term forex market pricing. The impact is on the dollar, and from it already on gold. On the chart we see the formation of a long 4-day consolidation in the range of 1828 - 1815. On the daily chart, the maximum decrease in volatility over the last 2 weeks is forming. The consolidation is starting to form a pre-breakout character as this range is forming near trend support and near the key level of 1809-1807. Hence, based on the negative fundamental background and the formation of a pre-breakout consolidation, there is every chance of a support breakout and further decline towards both 1800 and 1775. But there is always a BUT. News is an unpredictable nuance. Negative news for TVC:DXY can give a bullish surge for gold and vice versa. The nuances are shown on the d1 chart. On D1 SMAs are in the phase of signal realization Support levels: 1815.3, 1812, 1807 Resistance levels: 1828, channel border It is difficult to expect something concrete from the news. In the short term there may be a retest of these resistance areas, but in the medium term I continue to wait for the fall OANDA:XAUUSD COMEX:GC1! COMEX_MINI:MGC1! OANDA:XAGUSD COMEX:SI1! TVC:DXY Regards R. Linda!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
41
XAUUSD Big Bullish Divergence. Buy for short term profits.Gold / XAUUSD is consolidating on a Falling Support, while the 4hour RSI is on a Rising one. This is a Bullish Divergence, the kind we saw in August 17th-21st. That was a short term bottom and once the 4hour MA50 broke, a rally to Fibonacci 0.618 was initiated. Wait for it to break again and buy, aiming at 1896 (Fibonacci 0.618), or adjust if the price makes a new Low. Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by TheCryptagon
11
What's a Tea! Fed Policy Expectations Plunge Gold to Key SupportGold declined marginally by 3% in September hitting its major support of 52 weeks SMA, in the face of higher long term Treasury yields TVC:TNX and a stronger Dollar index TVC:DXY . Sentiment remained weak for most of the month as ETFs continued to lose AUM while COMEX managed money net long futures positions fell to a five month low previously in August 2023. 👉 Since July, long-dated yields have risen faster than short-dated yields, meaning the yield curve is exhibiting a "bear steepening", something often seen during a reflationary or early business cycle period. 👉 Following this thesis, lets compare 13-Weeks Treasury Bills Yield CBOE:IRX.P that jumped in 3 months from 5.150 to 5.330 only, and 10-Years Treasury Notes Yield TVC:US10Y with gains from 3.820 to 4.630 at the same time. 👉 While gold tends to underperform risk assets during these periods, it is not common to see bear steepening this late in the business cycle and recent moves in yields may be masking other factors at play, such as higher risk premiums 👉 Soft US economic data suggests also that a slowdown is still likely, which, alongside a potential change in the shape of the yield curve, could signal an environment where gold has historically performed well. Yields take center stage 👉 August and September were challenging for gold. After dipping below US$1,900/oz, it staged a late recovery – around the Fed’s Jackson Hole annual symposium, than turned more down after Fed's September Meeting to finish September down approximately by 3 per cent. 👉 The US Treasury yield curve is arguably the most important financial indicator around, and its trajectory and shape are constantly under scrutiny. Most of the time (90%) it slopes upward as investors need to be compensated for lending their money for longer. But at these times, it inverts. As it has since July 2022, suggesting bond market participants are waiting Fed's monetary policy tightening continuation. Lets Compare Gold Spot in U.S. Dollars (RHS) vs. 6-Months Fed's Policy Expectations based on Jun'24 30-Days Federal Funds Futures CBOT:ZQM2024 (LHS) Gold Spot in U.S. Dollars (RHS) vs. 12-Months Fed's Policy Expectations based on Dec'24 30-Days Federal Funds Futures CBOT:ZQZ2024 (LHS) What’s next 👉 In summary, the move in the 10-year yield can likely be attributed to three main factors. A shift up in the ‘higher interest rates for longer’ narrative, supply and demand forces and a rise in the risk premium. 👉 The latter factor might start to provide support to gold prices, if it continues to increase from its key support of 52W SMA. 👉 If we simply look at bear steepening, gold tends to underperform – with low single digit average returns. Historically, the most likely successor to a bear steepening is a bull flattening (approx. a third of the time). This is characterized by a fall in the long end of the curve relative to the short end, effectively an unwinding of the rising premia we’ve witnessed. 👉 This partly took place at the latter end of September with gold likely benefitting from such yield declines. Also, soft data continue to suggest that a slowdown is still firmly on the cards. This could result in either a bull steepening or a rare "bear-". Both phases have on average been gold friendly, yielding an annualized return of 15% – the highest of all the phases. Gold Market Breath 👉 What is Market Breath overall? 👉 Market Breath is a Percentage of Index Components Trading Above their N-Period Moving Average. 👉 Traders can use this index to see what percentage of index components are trading above their N-period moving average, for example, above the 200-day moving average. 👉 A rise above 50% in the indicator indicates increased market strength, while like the index of new highs and lows, traders and investors often look for extreme values to find extreme overbought and oversold conditions in the broader market. 👉 Gold Market Breath Indicator INDEX:YATH (number of S&P/TSX Global Gold Index TSX:TTGD above 200-Day SMA) is at 2.43, that is one of the lowest multi year readings . In conclusion, there are some reasonable considerations for further Gold spot purchases following the thesis that 52W SMA is a strong support for Gold in 2023, and further Fed's Policy expectations for upcoming 2024 are fully in the hands already.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Pandorra
5
🥇GOLD - Bearish market situation. We are waiting for a fall GOLD is forming a retest of support after a long consolidation. From the level of 1815 a small bounce may be formed before further decline, or a break of the level with further consolidation below 1815, which will form a selling entry point. TA on the high timeframe: 1) Candlestick analysis implies further decline 2) Strong consolidation near an important level - readiness for a decline 3) No strong bullish pullbacks yet. Buyers are weak TA on the low timeframe: 1) Support retest may provide a bounce for a subsequent retest 2) Another support retest will lead to support breakout. 3) The main target at the moment is to break the support and go down to 1800. Key resistance 📈: 1824, 1828 Key support 📉: 1815, 1807.9
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Gold-Tech
13
GOLD → The situation remains the same. Consolidation OANDA:XAUUSD continues to consolidate, therefore, the market situation remains the same. The probable outcome of events is a false break of resistance (retest of liquidity area) before further decline The market has been forming consolidation inside the important range of 1828 - 1812 for the last few days. Liquidity is forming above these boundaries, which the market maker (with high probability) will not miss. In priority, I expect a surge in volumes at the next retest of the resistance area and the formation of a false breakdown. Local strengthening of the price may reach such areas as 1830, 1835, 1840. In the medium term, I expect a further fall, but after reaching local targets. The global target is an important support area, which is indicated on the senior timeframe: Weekly chart on the left (blue level). The moving averages indicate a strong trend. A sell signal can be formed relative to 1828.2, 1833.3, 1835.5 Support levels: 1812, 1807. 1800 Resistance levels: 1828.2 In the long term I expect a continuation of the fall, but a small bullish correction may follow before this movement OANDA:XAUUSD OANDA:XAGUSD COMEX:GC1! COMEX_MINI:MGC1! COMEX:SI1! TVC:DXY Regards R. Linda!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
17
🥇GOLD - Consolidation before the news GOLD is in consolidation on the background of falling market. There will be news soon, quite strong, and most likely the market players are waiting for the data, so consolidation will form on the chart. The sentiment indicator indicates a bearish potential. The trend is also bearish. The news impulse may hit resistance, after which the decline may resume TA on the high timeframe: Market is falling. Price breaks 0.5 fibo and heads towards 0.618 A retest of 1807.96 may follow (the level has not been tested yet), and the price may also hit 0.618 before a pullback. TA on the low timeframe: A sideways flat is formed, the essence of the flat is consolidation Minimal volatility is formed on the market, as the potential for movement in one or another direction is accumulated. Watch the price reaction to the mentioned levels, I am expecting a fall in priority, as we have a downtrend. Key resistance📈: 1831, 1833, 1841 Key support📉: 1815, 1807.9
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Gold-Tech
18
GOLD → Market fades before the news OANDA:XAUUSD is forming a consolidation in the liquidity area range. In this case, there can be a lot of traps before moving to one side or the other, as this is one of the essence of consolidation The fundamental backdrop for gold is still negative, as the TVC:DXY continues to strengthen and seeks further upper targets, which will have a negative impact on gold. There are a number of important news releases today that are worth paying attention to. I don't think they will change the main fundamentals much, but there will be a storm in the market. Before the main fall, which may continue on the background of the dollar strengthening, the gold market, or rather the market maker may raise the price to 1830-1846 before the further fall. A huge pool of liquidity has formed near these zones, and since the price cannot fall or rise only, we may see a correction in the near future. My mood on gold is bearish, as well as the mood of the market, which by the way is indicated by the moving averages. Support levels: 1816.9, 1815.3, 1812 Resistance levels: 1828, 1830, 1833 Since there is news ahead, the market is going into consolidation. Lower volatility before the storm. Trade carefully on the news, or better not to trade at all and wait until the market calms down OANDA:XAUUSD COMEX_MINI:MGC1! COMEX:GC1! OANDA:XAGUSD COMEX:SI1! TVC:DXY Regards R. Linda!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
40
XAUUSD: Very alarming MACD Bearish Cross long term.Gold continues to flash bearish signals and besides the weekly (RSI = 34.620), it is about to turn technically bearish on the monthly timeframe as well (RSI = 48.938, MACD = 40.760, ADX = 33.051). On an even larger scale (3M), we have detected the latest sell indication, as the MACD formed a Bearish Cross. With the price inside a giant Megaphonoe pattern where all candles have closed inside it, we can expect the current correction to extend as low as its bottom. During Gold's last accumulation phase (2015-2018), it was the 3M MA50 that saved the day and after testing and holding, it started the 2019 parabolic run. Is this test inevitable? ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by InvestingScope
6
XAUUSD Oversold buy opportunity.Gold hit the bottom of the five month Channel Down following the Golden Cross (1d) collapse. The same bearish leg has been seen another three times (was the logic behind our sell last week) and every time it was completed, the price rose by a minimum of +2.66%. Trading Plan: 1. Buy on the current market price and as long as Support (2) holds. Targets: 1. 1864 (+2.66%). Tips: 1. The RSI (1d) is reversing after dropping even under 20.00. A further sign of a potential short term bullish reaction. Please like, follow and comment!! Notes: Past trading plan:
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by TradingBrokersView
1
🥇GOLD - The fall may continue, but after a small correction Gold reaches the specified level and forms a false breakout attempt. A rebound may be formed. But there is a chance of a continuation of the fall from the level of 1825. TA on the high timeframe: 1) Broken 0.5 fibo level. A strong fall is formed from the opening 2) The liquidity area that the price can test within the counter-trend correction is in the area of 1840-1850. TA on the low timeframe: 1) We have a strong downtrend 2) The price cannot fall all the time. If there is a false breakout of 1825 and the price forms consolidation above the level, there may be a rebound to local resistance levels. 3) In the medium term, the fall will continue, but after a probable correction. Key support📉: 1825 Key resistance📈: 1833, 1840, 1850
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Gold-Tech
13
GOLD → Correction from the liquidity zone. Trap OANDA:XAUUSD is testing the liquidity area I mentioned yesterday. The mentioned levels are not target levels, but only on the way to the target. Gold does not reach the lower boundary of the zone and the market maker forms a trap On the chart I have marked the liquidity area - quite a wide corridor and with a high probability the price should pass this zone, but at the same time the market maker should collect all the liquidity in this area. The obvious trap - correction to resistance - tells us that the decline will continue in the medium term. A candlestick pattern is forming on d1, which also hints to us about the continuation of further decline. The speed is quite high and there is no area on the way that could make resistance from the buyers and stop the market. The market is bearish, but even at such times the price can show a small counter-trend movement (correction) to rest before further movement in one direction or the other. I am still sticking with my target to 1812, 1807 and 1800. The moving averages are showing a strong trend Support levels: 1812, 1815.3 Resistance levels: 1828, 1834.4 I am still of the opinion that the price will continue its decline. There are no setups on the chart at the moment that would predict an immediate rise OANDA:XAUUSD TVC:GOLD COMEX_MINI:MGC1! COMEX:GC1! OANDA:XAGUSD TVC:DXY Regards R. Linda!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
26
XAUUSD Time to see the first short-term rebound.On last week's Gold (XAUUSD) analysis we called it was time to finally break below the 1W MA50 (chart below) and it did in spectacular fashion, already hitting the 1850 target: The price now almost hit the 1W MA200 (red trend-line) and being near the bottom (Lower Lows trend-line) of the 5-month Channel Down, the conditions for a short-term (at least) rebound emerge. The 1D RSI hit 20.00, the lowest it has been in almost 7 years (since December 14 2016) and that enhances the probabilities of a rebound. The current Channel Down resembles that of 2022 and as you see all rebounds to Lower Highs hit at least either the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level or the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). We are therefore targeting the new 0.5 Fib at 1885 for the moment, unless the price hits the 1D MA50 first. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by TradingShot
5
Gold will lose its value one day?What do you think about it? can this growth ever fall? And what will replace gold? My answer is yes gold can lose value, and its price can drop rapidly. Gold is a commodity that has a value based on market supply and demand. There are several factors that can affect the price of gold: Economic factors: Economic conditions, inflation, interest rates and monetary policy can affect the price of gold. If the economy improves and investors have higher confidence in other assets, they may turn to them and reduce demand for gold, which can lower its price. Global Geopolitical Events: Tensions between countries, political conflicts or economic crises can impact the demand for gold. If the situation improves, gold may not be as attractive to investors and its price may fall. Level of confidence: Gold is often seen as a safe store of value in times of uncertainty. However, if confidence in other safe assets, such as government bonds or other commodities, increases, demand for gold may decrease and affect its price.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by Bitcoinblockchainonline
🥇GOLD - The buyer is out of the market. A big drop Gold is forming a strong decline. The price is breaking support levels without any particular reaction from the buyers. The decline is likely to continue until gold finds strong support TA on the high timeframe: 1) The market is breaking the 0.5 fibo area and forming further momentum. One of the key support levels may be tested soon 2) An area of liquidity that can stop the price still far away TA on low timeframe: 1) The 0.5 fibo is broken, at 1840.9. 2) Price is heading towards 1825, a correction can be formed from this level. After the correction, it makes sense to expect a fall. Within the counter-trend correction the price may reach 1930, 1940. 3) Medium-term target for us is 1807 (level from the weekly chart) Key support📉: 1825, 1815, 1810 Key resistance📈: 1840
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Gold-Tech
18
GOLD → The fall continues. Target 1828, 1812 and 1800OANDA:XAUUSD has been making a new downward jump since the opening of the session on Monday. The strong distributive move continues. The price is approaching an important area The chart shows an important liquidity area, but not the final one (1800). At the moment I am interested in the 1828-1812 area. The nearest support line may be tested soon, followed by a correction before further decline. The strong bearish trend continues in the market on the back of TVC:DXY strengthening. ISM Manufacturing PMI & Prices are released today, as well as FED Chars Powell speaks. It is worth paying attention to these releases. From the technical analysis point of view, I will wait for a bounce from 1828 towards the nearest resistance to increase liquidity, after which the price will continue another decline towards 1812 and 1800. The moving averages are showing a strong trend and there is a strong signal on D1 Support levels: 1828, 1812 Resistance levels: 1846 I expect a continuation of the fall in the medium term. Before the further fall, a pullback may be formed, watch the price reaction to the marked levels OANDA:XAUUSD COMEX_MINI:MGC1! COMEX:GC1! OANDA:XAGUSD COMEX:SI1! TVC:DXY Regards R. Linda!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
27
GOLD → There's no place to shop. Bear Market ↘︎OANDA:XAUUSD shocked a lot of people in the last week, but we were ready for it and I have been setting medium term targets like 1875, 1850 and even 1800 for quite some time. On Friday the market closes below 1850 and within the candlestick analysis there are preconditions for further fall. In the coming week there will be important news that will help to determine the medium-term outlook. Pay attention to such data as. -ISM Manufacturin, FED Chair Powell Speaks - NonFarm E.C., SP Global Services, Non-Manufacturing -Initial Jobless Claims -NonFarm, Unemployment Rate Fundamental factors are a significant part of the leverage that drives the market. The TVC:DXY is currently under the influence of a positive fundamental background, which is quite negative for gold From the point of view of technical analysis we see a strong distributive movement. The probable target of this movement may be the following zones: 1827, 1809, 1773, the targets are shown on the chart above. These are important liquidity zones in the medium term. At the moment gold is in an empty range (no volume density zones). The price can reach the lower boundary of the main flat - 1809 - quite quickly. But, on Monday, from the opening session the price may form a small pullback to form consolidation. The correction may be directed to 1860, or even to 1875, but there are no signals to start a strong growth now. We expect a fall to 1800 OANDA:XAUUSD OANDA:XAGUSD COMEX:GC1! COMEX:SI1! TVC:DXY Regards R. Linda!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
31
XAUUSD: Monday opening its a buy.Gold is oversold on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 25.484, MACD = -12.310, ADX = 33.367), the RSI hasn't been that low since July 2022. This is the selling leg from the top of the Channel Down after t brutal 1D Death Cross (the first in more than a year). The standard selling sequence is around -5%. We expect a rebound (short term) to the former LL trendline (TP = 1,875). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by InvestingScope
4
GOLD → Correction amid strong bearish trend OANDA:XAUUSD stops its fall after reaching our yesterday's target. After a false breakout of 1860, a counter-trend correction to resistance is forming. But why!? The price cannot fall all the time, after a strong movement to one side or another a correction is formed to increase liquidity - complex mechanisms of market management by big players. The price is approaching the area of 1875 - an important enough place to form further targets. Above 1878 a pool of liquidity is forming and most likely the price may form a retest or a false breakout before falling further. Maybe a sideways flat will form after a strong fall. But at the moment we have the background of a strong trend Key resistance: 1875, 1878 Key support: 1860 In the long term I expect a continuation of the fall, the reasons for this are given in the early ideas. But a small correction may follow before a further fall. Regards R. Linda
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
12
XAUUSD This is the only way it can realistically reverse.Gold (XAUUSD) hit yesterday the bottom of the Channel Down pattern that started after the July 20 High. This is a short-term buy signal targeting its top (Lower Highs) but on the long-term Gold has been on a downtrend since the May 04 All Time High (ATH). Following the rise on the June 29 Low, Gold was still on a long-term uptrend, supported by a Higher Lows trend-line. That trend-line broke after both the US10Y (blue trend-line) and the DXY (green trend-line) invalidated their bearish patterns (US10Y broke above its 4.070 Resistance, DXY broke above its Lower Highs trend-line) and both entered Channel Up formations. Since Gold is for the most part negatively correlated to the two, it should be no surprise that it started the Channel Down we discussed out at the same time. Realistically we can only expect a long-term bullish reversal on Gold after the Channel Down patterns of the DXY and US10Y break downwards and mostly the latter, which as you see is more tightly correlated to Gold. Until then, a potential bottom rebound can only be a short-term buy signal for Gold. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by TradingShot
2
GDXJ (+ Gold) "Bear Trap" LongGiven USD strength and the sustained pressure of ever-increasing US interest rates, gold has been taking it on the chin. However, we’re getting into buy levels/demand where it may be poised for a near-term recovery. Keep tabs on gold (spot, futures, GLD), but if you see signs of accumulation/trend reversal (use small timeframe charts), consider climbing aboard. FYI, gold futures (GC) have a yet-to-be-filled gap @ 1872.70, so we may drift lower in the immediate-term as the precious metal seeks that level. In the Jr. Miners space, we’re eyeing the 30.57-31.85 demand zone, which formed in November of '22. Protective stops should be placed below the lower bound of the buy zone. Targeting is a bit challenging, but GC futures should be able to rally to ~1910, if not higher. As everything is uncertain in trading, use your judgement. We always take mechanical profits en route to opposing zones, which are used for our target setting, and would highly recommend doing the same given the stress currently being reflected across markets. Just a thought/idea – take it . This is a very aggressive trade given recent price action - be careful! JHart @ LionHart Trading
AMEX:GDXJLong
by LionHart_Trading