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GC1! (Gold Futures)

GOLD corrects, accumulates around 2,500 USD, still positiveOANDA:XAUUSD adjusted slightly downward during the early Asian trading session on August 22, maintaining price activity around the original price of 2,500USD. But overall, the overall picture still shows that gold is fully supported and the price drops are only corrective after a long period of price increases. Minutes of the Federal Reserve's meeting released Wednesday showed policymakers were inclined to cut interest rates in September, and some participants believed the conditions for a rate cut had been set. Available in July. “Some believe that recent developments in inflation and rising unemployment support a 25 basis point reduction in the policy rate target range at the meeting,” the meeting minutes said. or they may support such a decision. If data continue to be in line with expectations, further policy easing at the next meeting may be appropriate.” The current U.S. unemployment rate is higher than the 4% unemployment rate that Federal Reserve officials predicted this year in their updated economic forecast in June. It is also higher than the unemployment rate. 4.2% that Fed policymakers expect by the end of next year. Additionally, revised nonfarm payrolls data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on Wednesday showed that the number of people employed in the United States over the past year through March was initially revised down to 818,000, here This is the largest downward adjustment since 2009. This trading day, traders will need to focus on US economic data, with initial jobless claims, PMI data from S&P Global and US housing data. The number of people applying for unemployment benefits in the US is expected to increase to 230,000 in the week of August 17, up from 227,000 the previous week. Business activity data published by S&P Global shows that the preliminary value of the US services PMI in August will decrease slightly from 55 to 54. The preliminary value of manufacturing PMI in August is expected to remain unchanged. changed at 49.6. In addition, US existing home sales in July are expected to increase from 3.89 million units to 3.93 million units. However, all macro focus will be on tomorrow's event, when Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will speak at the start of the Jackson Hole Symposium. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, although gold continues to adjust cumulatively around the original price of 2,500 USD, in general the short, medium and long-term trends remain unchanged with an overall uptrend. On the other hand, gold is also maintaining above the 0.786% Fibonacci extension level and this is considered a positive signal for gold to continue towards its next short-term targets of around 2,531USD in the short term and beyond. target level 2,544USD. Even in the event that gold is sold below the 0.786% Fibonacci extension, it will still receive support from the previously broken era high of $2,484. During the day, the trend of gold prices did not change with an uptrend and the Relative Strength Index has not yet reached the overbought level, showing that there is still room for growth. Notable technical levels for the intraday uptrend are listed below. Support: 2,500 – 2,484USD Resistance: 2,531 – 2,544USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2553 - 2551⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2557 →Take Profit 1 2546 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2541 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2468 - 2470⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2464 →Take Profit 1 2475 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2480
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 8-20 : BozuTrending Counter-TrendToday's Bozu Trending bar in counter-trend mode could be very exciting. Bozu trending bars are typically relatively large and represent a strong price trend. As we move closer to the upper GAP window, we may see the SPY rally through that window today—or we may see the SPY pull downward, away from that GAP, and attempt to retest support near 552. Please watch today's video because the Counter-Trend mode of the Bozu pattern suggests we may see a downward price bar today. I've highlighted two key price areas we need to watch regarding which direction the SPY will attempt to trend today. If we stay within those two price levels - price will stay muted today. Otherwise, I expect the markets to BIAS to the upside but counter-trend to the downside. It should be an interesting day for trading. Gold is RIPPING and Bitcoin appears ready for a ripper rally. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by BradMatheny
GOLD slows down but the trend remains unchangedUS dollar falls to 7-month low and yen hits one-week high, Federal Reserve's Kashkari (hawkish) says he is optimistic about interest rate cuts, a a change from the official's stance in June. OANDA:XAUUSD Spots hit another record high on Monday, and although they later fell, a weaker US dollar and tensions in the Middle East limited the extent of the correction. TVC:DXY , which tracks the US dollar against six major currencies, fell to 101.97 and touched 101.85, its lowest since January 2, on Monday's trading day. The market's focus will be on whether Powell's speech in Jackson Hole on Friday indicates that the Fed could cut interest rates by 25 or 50 basis points. Another key focus will be whether Powell signals that a rate cut is possible at each meeting. Powell also may not be in a hurry to release details this week, as August employment and inflation data have yet to be released before the Fed's September meeting. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari of the Federal Reserve, recently stated that he is open to cutting interest rates at the next meeting due to the growing possibility of excessive labor market weakness. This is a change from his stance in June. Kashkari said the discussion about cutting interest rates has changed because “inflation is progressing and the labor market is showing some worrying signs.” He believes there is no reason to cut interest rates by more than 25 basis points because the layoff rate remains low and the number of people applying for unemployment benefits is not showing a clear worsening trend. Geopolitically Russia's Investigative Committee announced on Monday that a bridge on the Sem river, which flows through the Kursk region, was destroyed in a Ukrainian attack. The Ukrainian military said the attack was aimed at disrupting Russian supply lines and making it more difficult to mobilize Russian troops and weapons. Later, Ukrainian President Zelensky elaborated on his goals, saying in his speech: "Now, the top priority in our overall defense operations is to destroy the as much of Russia's war potential as possible and carry out maximum counter-offensive operations. This includes establishing a buffer zone within Russia's territory." Hamas rejects the ceasefire agreement in the Middle East Hamas accused the US of "continuing the fight for Israel" after US Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had accepted transitional proposals for a ceasefire in Gaza and called on Palestinian groups to do the same on one's own. However, Hamas spokesman Osama Hamdan said the Palestinian group would only “agree to implement” Biden's UN Security Council-backed proposal, which was accepted last month. Medical sources said Israeli forces had killed at least 35 Palestinians in Gaza in the past 24 hours and Kamal Adwan Hospital warned that 11 children were at risk of death due to fuel shortages, which could lead to close the door. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD After renewing its all-time peak, gold had certain but insignificant adjustments and maintained its price activity around the original price of 2,500 USD. In terms of structure on the daily chart, gold is still being supported for an uptrend with the main trend being noticed by the price channel and main support by EMA21. Meanwhile, the nearest support level is noticed in the area of ​​2,484 – 2,471 USD, sent to readers in the weekly publication. As long as gold remains above the 0.618% Fibonacci extension level, it still has short-term bullish prospects. On the other hand, once gold maintains stability above the 0.786% Fibonacci extension level, it will tend to continue to increase for a period of time. new period and the target after that is about 2,544USD. During the day, the technical outlook for gold prices remains bullish. But traders also always need to be ready for strong and widespread fluctuations in the current market context. Notable price points are listed below. Support: 2,484 – 2,471USD Resistance: 2,503 – 2,509 – 2,544USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2536 - 2534⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2540 →Take Profit 1 2529 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2524 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2474 - 2476⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2470 →Take Profit 1 2481 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2486
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
XAUUSD made HISTORY above $2500 for 1st time ever! What's next?Gold (XAUUSD) broke last Friday above the $2500 threshold for the first time in its history. Amidst growing economic slowdown and geopolitical concerns, the yellow metal seems again to be winning the 'safe haven race' against its peers. But can it continue this aggressive rise? To answer this we revisit today the April 15 (see chart below) analysis that helped us project the medium-term correction following the early 2024 rally: The essence of this analysis was the high degree of symmetry in Gold's price action since the December 2015 Low. What helped us anticipate the April - June 2024 correction was the similarities of the Bull Phase that started after the October 2023 Low with the August 2018 - July 2020 Bull Phase. The 2019 mid-Bull Phase correction took place after a +34.80% rise within the 0.5 and 0.382 Fibonacci levels. The December 2023 - Jan 2024 correction took place after a +32.70% rise and if we place it within the 0.5 - 0.382 Fibonacci level, we can assume that Gold is now on the final stage of this Bull Phase. It technically tops at 2900 but we will be satisfied with a 2800 Target as proportionally it will be closer to the post 0.382 Fib rise of the previous Bull Phase (41.80% against 43.80%). Note that in all cases, the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) held as Support and as long as it does, the trend will be bullish long-term. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by TradingShot
GOLD → Retest triangle resistance. Next, 2500 or 2400?FX:XAUUSD is strengthening after retesting support at 2440 and false breakdown, heading towards ATH. Buyers are keeping the market from falling, forcing the price to bounce off the local range support. It is worth emphasizing the strong bullish trend and continued retests of triangle resistance, which only increases the chance of a breakout and upside. The gold price has been strengthening since the evening session, despite strong US data (for Thursday) being the latest boost to dollar buying, especially after an inflation report earlier this week that cast doubt on the possibility of an aggressive Fed interest rate cut in September. Special emphasis on looming geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which continues to support sentiment around the hedge asset Resistance levels: 2464, 2477 Support levels: 2458, 2450, 2440 Emphasis on both the boundaries of the above range and internal levels. If the bulls hold 2458, their further target will be the resistance 2464, the breakdown of which will lead gold to ATH. And in this case the market will start testing 2477 for a breakthrough and growth. If the bulls show weakness, the market may make another attempt to retest the support before further growth. Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ FX:XAUUSD ;) Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
17
All-time high, GOLD prospects continue to increaseThe market fluctuated wildly in the past week, OANDA:XAUUSD skyrocketed from the week's low of 2,423USD to the weekend closing price of 2,508USD/oz and set a new all-time high. However, Iran could retaliate and attack Israel next week. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech at the annual meeting in Jackson Hole is a market highlight that could once again cause volatility. Next week, all eyes will be on the Federal Reserve symposium in Jackson Hole. The focus will be on Friday, when Powell gives a keynote speech on the economic outlook. First, they want confirmation that the Fed will cut interest rates in September. But as the Fed faces risks to both inflation and employment through recent macro data, the next move and the pace The next rate cut will become more complicated and of course this will bring even more intense fluctuations in the market in general and gold trading in particular. The US economic calendar will not release any important data in the first half of next week. Next Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its July 30-31 meeting. At the post-meeting press conference, Fed Chairman Powell admitted there was “real discussion” about tapering interest rate at the July meeting. Investors will pay attention to comments surrounding interest rate cut discussions. If the minutes show some policymakers favor a sudden rate cut in July, the USD could face fresh selling pressure and gold continues to be supported and pushed to renew levels. all time. At the Jackson Hole meeting, even if Powell confirms a rate cut in September, it is unlikely to trigger a market reaction because such a decision is already fully priced in. In what could be a shock to markets, Powell will likely dismiss market expectations that the Fed could cut policy rates by 50 basis points at a future meeting, noting that they could will loosen policy at a steady pace. In this scenario, US Treasury bond yields could rise higher, putting gold prices under pressure to adjust in the short term. Powell will likely use his speech in Jackson Hole to announce that the 'appropriate' time to cut interest rates is approaching. With the support of the approaching interest rate cut environment and the increasingly complicated geopolitical developments and successive escalating moves, basically, the gold price is being absolutely supported by investors. increasing trend. This has been mostly noticed by readers throughout the publications since the beginning of this year, all macro fundamentals will support gold to continue to increase in price, as it is a safe haven asset. leading in all cases of risk or monetary policy that does not support the USD. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD With outstanding strength from all fundamental factors, gold's technical chart also has all the important conditions necessary for an upward price trend. The main trend is highlighted by the price channel and support from EMA21, which was brought to your attention in recent publications. On the other hand, gold has rallied to break the plateau and stay above the $2,500 level after achieving last week's upside price target in the $2,500 - $2,505 area. The fact that gold closed above the 0.786% Fibonacci extension allows gold to continue to increase in price towards $2,544 in the short term when the Relative Strength Index points up but has not yet reached the overbought level. shows that there is still wide room for price increases ahead. However, in the current market context, traders must be ready for huge fluctuations, when gold can also face strong correction sessions with the nearest support being the The previous all-time peak was broken at 2,484 USD. In the coming time, gold will continue to have the main trend of increasing prices with notable technical levels that will be listed as follows. Support: 2,484 – 2,471USD Resistance: 2,544USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2541 - 2539 ⚰️SL: 2545 ⬆️TP1: 2534 ⬆️TP2: 2529 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2474 - 2476 ⚰️SL: 2470 ⬆️TP1: 2481 ⬆️TP2: 2486
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [19 August - 23 August]This week, international gold prices have increased quite strongly. After falling slightly to 2,432 USD/oz, international gold prices soared to over 2,500 USD/oz and closed the week at 2,507 USD/oz. International gold prices increased sharply this week because the market expected the FED to definitely cut interest rates at its September meeting. In addition, tensions between Israel and Iran have escalated, causing many investors to worry that this tension could lead to a war in the Middle East, increasing the haven demand for gold. In addition, the USD declined as the Atlantic Council's USD Dominance Monitor Report said the USD's share in global reserves reached 58% by 2024, down 14% compared to 2002 as many countries Countries, especially members of the BRICS bloc, seek to stay away from the USD. The focus for the gold market next week will be the Jackson Hole conference. The FED Chairman will provide assessments and updates on the US economy and the outlook for the FED's monetary policy. If at the Jackson Hole conference, the FED Chairman continues to affirm that he will cut interest rates in September, it may push gold prices higher next week. However, if the FED Chairman changes his tone again, saying that the FED needs to continue monitoring the economic situation before cutting interest rates, it will cause gold prices to decline next week. 📌Technically, on the H4 technical chart, the extended Fibonacci shows that the gold price can reach the Target around 2,590-2,600 USD/oz. Short-term trading plan for next week will be to buy if the price returns around 2470, and sell around 2590. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 2.470 – 2.484USD Resistance: 2.4600 – 2.544USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2591 - 2589⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2595 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2469 - 2471⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2465
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [12 August - 16 August]This week, OANDA:XAUUSD continued to fall sharply on Monday due to the Nikkei index falling 12%, leading to a sharp decline in global stock markets, forcing investors to sell gold to supplement their deposits. stock investment. At one point, the international gold price dropped to 2,364 USD/oz. However, immediately after that, gold prices continuously recovered because investors expected the FED to cut interest rates by up to 50 basis points in September. Accordingly, gold price climbed to 2,436 USD/oz and closed at 2,430 USD/oz. This may be a stepping stone for gold price increases next week. In the coming week, there are quite a few important economic data that can strongly impact gold prices, such as the US Producer Price Index (PPI) released on Tuesday, followed by the Consumer Price Index (CPI). ) announced on Wednesday, followed by retail sales, a preliminary survey of consumer sentiment by the University of Michigan for August... In which, PPI, CPI are forecast to continue to decrease slightly, creating favorable Conditions for the FED to cut interest rates next September may support gold prices next week. In addition, many FED officials, such as Mr. Bostic, Musalem, Harker, and Goolsbee, will give speeches on monetary policy. However, according to many experts, most of these officials support the FED in cutting interest rates. This is also considered one of the driving forces for gold prices next week. Technically, from a long-term perspective, gold prices still show an upward trend across time frames when prices are still above the moving average lines (EMA34, 89). However, a divergence signal has appeared on the D1 frame, while on the Weekly frame, the price of gold is quite far away from the EMA lines (the price can adjust to or move sideways with a wide range waiting to intersect with the average lines). The above 2 signals recommend that we should not join the buying side at this time. If we are buying, we should wait for price corrections. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 2.408 – 2.400USD Resistance: 2.437 – 2.453 – 2.484USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2501 - 2499⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2505 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2374 - 2376⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2370
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD → Attempting to recover inside a new range FX:XAUUSD declines after the CPI report to the local liquidity zone of 2440, forming a new trading range. But, buyers come back and try to hold the psychological zone of 2450 again. The bullish trend persists, gold is trading within the “Symmetrical Triangle” consolidation pattern Traders await US retail sales data for fresh signals on Fed policy. Although the annual inflation rate in the US slowed down for the fourth consecutive month to 2.9%, but these CPI figures have raised fears that the US Fed will decide to cut interest rate heavily next month. A weak US retail sales report could revive recession fears.... Technically, we should focus on the local levels inside the range of 2440 - 2477. Resistance levels: 2458, 2467, 2477 Support levels: 2440, 2431, 2320 Technically buyers are trying to keep the price from falling, but all the emphasis is on the news, favorable fundamental data can provide strong support for gold, which can use the energy for another retest of 2477, but an unpredictable report can intensify the sell-off and bring the price to 2425. Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ FX:XAUUSD ;) Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
16
GOLD still has all the conditions for price increasesUS economic data was stronger than expected and markets predict these data could influence the extent of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The USD and US bond yields increased, causing gold prices to encounter some difficulties for expectations of price increases. OANDA:XAUUSD gave up gains earlier this week, after US inflation data showed inflation eased in July. However, gold remains near all-time highs set last month. Since the beginning of this year, gold prices have increased 19%, mainly due to optimistic market expectations about loosening monetary policies and gold purchasing activities of central banks. The latest data released by the United States shows that the core consumer price index (CPI) in July, which is a price index that excludes food and energy costs, fell to its lowest level compared to the same month last year. since the start of 2021. This suggests inflationary pressures have eased, supporting the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates next month. U.S. retail sales rose 1.0% last month after falling 0.2% in June, the U.S. Commerce Department's Census Bureau said. In particular, a report from the US Department of Labor showed that the number of Americans newly applying for unemployment benefits last week fell to its lowest level in a month. According to CME's "Fed Watch" data, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 70.5% and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 29.5%. The probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 50 basis points cumulatively until November is 59.1%, the probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 75 basis points cumulatively is 36.2%, and the probability that the Fed will cut interest rates The cumulative yield of 100 basis points is 4.8%. As a non-interest-paying asset, gold prices typically increase when interest rates fall. As inflation slows, expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve will increase, further boosting gold's appeal. In addition, gold purchasing activities of central banks around the world have also become reliable support for gold prices. In addition to monetary policy, geopolitical instability is also a major factor driving gold demand. Tensions in the Middle East and conflict between Russia and Ukraine have increased gold's appeal as a safe haven asset. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold is slowing down after a string of highly volatile trading days with price activity around the key technical area of ​​$2,455 – $2,448. Although gold has strong downward corrections at times, in terms of the overall technical chart, it still has the main prospect of price increase. With the price channel as the main trend and main support from the EMA 21. The fact that gold keeps its price activity above the 0.50% Fibonacci extension level allows it to continue to increase with a short-term target of around 2,471USD, the price point of the 0.618% Fibonacci extension. As long as gold remains within the price channel and above the 21 EMA, its technical outlook remains bullish, while the Relative Strength Index has not yet reached overbought levels and is above 50 indicating There is still a lot of room for price increases ahead. Note: From 2023 until now, gold has had huge fluctuations because traders must always be ready for trading sessions with large amplitudes. Unlike previous years, when 2-3% trading days were very rare and it took a lot of time for gold to fluctuate like that. But in a market context with many sudden fundamental impacts, the price of gold can completely change 2-3% in just a few hours. The best advice is just to be patient and look for solid positions and strictly manage the trade size relative to the trading account. During the day, the technical outlook for gold prices remains bullish with notable levels listed below. Support: 2,448 – 2,426USD Resistance: 2,471USD
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
Gold Ripper Rally Set For 8-16 into 8-20 Targeting $2575-$2650Have you been following my research on GOLD? This next move will likely be a very strong Ripper-Rally where Gold will break through the dual Flag Apex and move dramatically higher over the next 5-10+ days. I will let this video tell you all you need to know. Remember, watch my Gold Dual-Leg Rally video too. I wonder what the "driver" of this rally in Gold will be? US-Dollar? Foreign Markets? Some political or geo-political news? Something will send Gold upward $75-$100+ over the next 5+ days. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
COMEX:GC1!Long
by BradMatheny
GOLD recovers after adjustment by CPI dataOANDA:XAUUSD recovered after a slight decline when the latest US CPI report dampened expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates sharply next month. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released a report Wednesday saying the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2% month-over-month and 2.9% year-over-year in July. Economists surveyed previously expected the index to increase 0.2% month-on-month and 3% year-on-year. Excluding food and energy costs, U.S. core CPI in July rose 0.2% month-on-month and 3.2% year-over-year, both in line with expectations. . The Chicago Mercantile Exchange's "Fed Tracker" shows that the market now expects a 35% chance of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in September, compared with a 50% chance before the data release. US CPI data. However, a rate cut in September is a certainty; Current data shows that the Federal Reserve initially only intended to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, which has disappointed markets where expectations for a 50 basis point cut were previously higher. Cutting interest rates will more or less bring support to gold prices when the USD loses important support from the high interest rate environment. On the other hand, the geopolitical situation still has many potential risks and gold is always a safe haven asset when geopolitical developments become complicated. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, although gold has corrected downwards before, maintaining price activity above the 0.50% Fibonacci extension is a positive signal for the short-term uptrend. In the immediate future, gold will be limited by the technical level of 2,455 USD noted by readers in yesterday's edition and once gold breaks this level, it has the potential to increase further to the target level then around. Fibonacci extension level 0.618%. In a negative case, gold could be sold below the $2,426 technical level if support at $2,448 is broken below. So traders who buy gold should be prepared for this scenario, but the main trend will still be bullish because 2,426USD is also the confluence of Fibonacci 0.382% and EMA21. As long as gold remains above the EMA21 and within the price channel, its technical outlook remains bullish with notable positions listed below. Support: 2,448 – 2,426USD Resistance: 2,471USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2461 - 2459 ⚰️SL: 2465 ⬆️TP1: 2454 ⬆️TP2: 2449 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2424 - 2426 ⚰️SL: 2420 ⬆️TP1: 2431 ⬆️TP2: 2436
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD → ATH retest before CPI. What should we expect?FX:XAUUSD is defending the psychological level and support zone at 2450 and testing key resistance at 2477 for a breakout, ahead of 2483. All eyes are on key US CPI inflation data Traders are still expecting a softer CPI report after a larger than expected decline in PPI data released yesterday. A softer CPI figure may confirm forecasts of an aggressive Fed rate cut, which will intensify the USD sell-off. This situation may trigger a northward movement in gold (strengthening the price) In addition, the price of gold continues to find support in the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the situation is still heated to the limit. Technically, the price continues to head towards 2477-2483. Retests of resistance for a breakout of the level continue. Resistance levels: 2477, 2483, 2500 Support levels: 2458, 2450 On high news volatility, the price may form a quick breakout and rally or long-squeeze before rising further. BUT, unpredictable news may break the market structure, in which case the price may head beyond 2450. Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ FX:XAUUSD ;) Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
18
Ready, focus on CPI data this trading dayThe US dollar and US bond yields rose slightly after US producer price data reinforced hopes of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, while gold prices hovered near highs all-time record set in July. OANDA:XAUUSD attracted some profit-taking as it approached monthly highs tested earlier on Tuesday and pared Monday's sharp gain of more than 1%. Overall positive sentiment in equity markets has dampened demand for traditional safe-haven assets and weighed on precious metals amid a market focus on closely watched inflation data. of America. In terms of the fundamental picture, gold still has a lot of support to become a top priority Investors remain concerned about the possibility of broader conflict in the Middle East and the impact of the protracted Russia-Ukraine conflict. In addition, the dovish expectations of the Federal Reserve (Fed) will no longer support the US Dollar (USD) and will act as a favorable tailwind for gold prices. Data released Tuesday showed U.S. producer prices rose less than expected in July, suggesting inflation continued to slow. Traders now await US consumer price index (CPI) data for July today (Wednesday) and retail sales data due (Thursday) for further impetus to the move. The next policy stance of the US central bank. Today (Wednesday), investors will receive more important US consumer price index (CPI) data. Markets generally expect that if inflation continues to show signs of slowing, the Federal Reserve may adopt a more accommodative monetary policy stance. Surveys show that the annual US CPI increase in July is expected to remain at 3.0%. Annual core CPI growth is expected to slow to 3.2% from 3.3% last month. If the CPI data is lower than expected, this will further pave the way for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, and support gold prices. On the geopolitical side According to sources from Reuters, Iranian officials said: Only a ceasefire in Gaza can delay retaliation Three senior Iranian officials said that only a ceasefire in Gaza during negotiations expected to take place this week will prevent Iran from retaliating against Israel's assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh on its territory, Reuters reported. news on Wednesday. A senior Iranian security official, said Iran would launch a direct attack with allies such as Hezbollah if the Gaza talks fail or if Iran believes Israel is delaying the talks. . Over the weekend, Hamas expressed doubts whether ceasefire negotiations could continue. Israel and Hamas have held several rounds of talks in recent months but have failed to reach a final ceasefire agreement. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD After gold decreased and corrected from the 0.618% Fibonacci extension towards 2,455 USD, as noted by readers in yesterday's edition, it has now recovered slightly and lost the corrective downward momentum. In the short, medium and long term, the technical structure as well as the trend is still an uptrend. With gold breaking above the 0.618% Fibonacci level, it will open a new uptrend. With a short-term target at 2,484 USD (all-time high) and more than the original price of 2,500 – 2,505 USD. As long as gold remains above the $2,455 – $2,448 area, it will still have a bullish short-term technical outlook, and the main trend is noticed by the price channel and the main support is noticed by the EMA21. During the day, the technical outlook for gold prices is still bullish as the Relative Strength Index is still a long way from reaching the oversold area, showing that there is still room for growth ahead. And the notable prices will be listed again as follows. Support: 2,455 – 2,448USD Resistance: 2,471 – 2,484 – 2,500USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2501 - 2499 ⚰️SL: 2505 ⬆️TP1: 2494 ⬆️TP2: 2489 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2424 - 2426 ⚰️SL: 2420 ⬆️TP1: 2431 ⬆️TP2: 2436
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
XAUUSD Next stop 2545.Two weeks ago (July 29, see chart below), we gave a strong buy signal on Gold (XAUUSD) right at the bottom of June's Channel Up: The price hasn't yet hit the 2545 Target as it posted yet another Higher Low but is on good course to hit it, as the Higher Lows structure resembles that of June's. One more pull-back and we believe that Gold will then make its next technical Higher High at +8.30% (similar to the previous Bullish Leg). Note that throughout this whole time, the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) has been supporting and currently is just below the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Channel Up. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by TradingShot
GOLD → The bull market continues. Ahead of the PPI...FX:XAUUSD has been breaking through the key resistance 2431 since the opening of the session and is holding towards the liquidity zone 2458. Ahead of PPI, which may set a short-term tone in the market. Gold continues to form a bullish trend, the general premise is that the price is going to test ATH. Ahead of PPI and it is worth paying attention to the inflation indicator, which plays an important role for the Fed and the formation of further strategy. Also a lot of attention to the Middle East, namely the actions of Iran.... Technically, the price is in the range of 2458 - 2431. Emphasis on the resistance, because, on the background of a distant retest, it will not be possible to break this zone from the first time and a correction may take place before further growth. Resistance levels: 2458, 2477 Support levels: 2431, 2418 Traders expect the PPI to remain at the same level, but if the data indicates a decline in inflation, the market may take it very positively. Unpredictable data can increase market volatility quite a lot. Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ FX:XAUUSD ;) Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
23
GOLD fell slightly, but the target is the all-time highOn the Asian market on Tuesday (August 13), gold was delivered immediately OANDA:XAUUSD A slight decrease after a pressure increase close to the all-time peak is the price increase target sent to readers recently. Concerns about escalating tensions in the Middle East have fueled safe-haven buying, with gold now aiming for $2,500 an ounce once its all-time peak is surpassed. Gold jumped amid growing speculation that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to delay any more interest rate cuts. The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates for the first time at its upcoming September meeting, possibly by 50 basis points. Gold started the new week positively in the context of slowing demand for the US Dollar. Meanwhile, concerns about escalating tensions in the Middle East are boosting gold demand. Western countries warn that Iran could launch an attack on Israel, which would reduce the possibility of a ceasefire. The Wall Street Journal reported Monday that Israel placed its military on high alert Monday after learning of preparations by Iran and the militant group Hezbollah. The Wall Street Journal said: "Israel put its military on high alert for the first time this month after witnessing Iran and Hezbollah preparing to launch attacks. Israel does not know whether an attack is imminent." happening or not but they are taking action". Israeli military spokesman Hagari issued a statement Monday evening local time, saying that the Israeli military is “Closely monitoring developments in the region, especially the activities of Hezbollah and Iran in Lebanon, and prepare defenses to respond to attacks.” Rising tensions in the Middle East have also created some safe-haven demand, and gold has always been a top choice for traditional haven demand. As we have sent to readers throughout recent publications, gold is receiving active support by the two most important fundamental factors: - On the one hand, the USD has less attractive prospects when the Fed is very close to its first interest rate cut, and the market also has many speculations that the Fed will have more cuts this year. . The cutting cycle begins, the USD's correlation with gold weakens and this is an important driving force supporting gold prices. - On the other hand, gold always reacts positively to market risks, especially geopolitical risks that always create surprises that cause gold prices to skyrocket. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD For the time being, gold is limited by its all-time high and also the 0.618% trend-following Fibonacci extension. However, the gold price has all the technical conditions for a bullish outlook with the main trend being noticed by the trend price channel, the main support is also noticed by the 21-day moving average (EMA21). As long as gold remains above the EMA21 and within the price channel, the short to medium term technical outlook remains bullish, while the RSI crosses above 50 and remains bullish but has not yet reached the overbought, showing that there is still plenty of room for price increases ahead. During the day, the technical outlook for gold prices is bullish with notable levels listed below. Support: 2,450 – 2,448USD Resistance: 2,477 – 2,484USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2501 - 2499 ⚰️SL: 2505 ⬆️TP1: 2494 ⬆️TP2: 2489 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2424 - 2426 ⚰️SL: 2420 ⬆️TP1: 2431 ⬆️TP2: 2436
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
Ready for a new trading week with CPI data in focusOANDA:XAUUSD closed slightly down last week, but a recovery over the past two trading days has helped gold prices narrow their losses this week. Investors will receive US CPI and retail sales data next week, which is expected to cause major fluctuations in the gold market. In addition, developments in the Middle East are also the focus of investors' attention. Yesterday's US unemployment claims data eased fears of a recession and boosted gold prices. Additionally, Federal Reserve commentary this week also supports the view that an interest rate cut may be imminent. After a volatile week, traders' expectations that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates in an unusually aggressive way have also weakened. Globally, risk appetite also gradually recovered as the week progressed, tempered by demand for gold, considered a top safe-haven asset. However, Fed policymakers are increasingly confident that inflation has cooled enough to allow interest rate cuts. They will decide the size and timing of interest rate cuts based on economic data rather than stock market turmoil. A big storm is coming, the US CPI will be announced this week as the market focus This week's economic calendar will release US inflation data for July. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to increase 0.2% month-on-month in July, while core CPI , excluding fluctuating food and energy prices, will also increase 0.2% month-on-month. On an annual basis, the headline CPI inflation rate is expected to moderate to 2.9% from 3% in June. If CPI rises higher than expected compared to last month, investors can reassess the possibility of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in September and help the Dollar strengthen and of course this will be the immediate reaction. immediately because it is expected to decrease. On the other hand, if the data meets or misses market expectations, it could put pressure on the US Dollar, opening the door for another bullish wave for gold. On Thursday, the US Census Bureau will release retail sales data for July. US retail sales are expected to increase 0.3% month-over-month in July after flat change in June. Significant growth in retail sales could ease fears of a US recession and weigh on gold by supporting the dollar, while negative data would have the opposite effect. CME's "Fed Watch Tool" shows that the market expects the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in September to be 49%. It is also important to note that in addition to economic data being the focus of attention, readers, investors, and traders also need to pay attention to geopolitical developments. In the current context, focus should be on the situation in the Middle East as signs of escalation continuously appear in the market. Information will be updated with readers through short comments or daily publications. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD After receiving support from the key technical area for the uptrend that readers noticed throughout the publication over the past week, the confluence area of ​​the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement, the lower edge of the price channel and the The $2,378 technical has pushed gold to achieve its near-term upside target at $2,437. Temporarily, gold's upside momentum is limited at the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, price point of $2,437, but it has also achieved full bullish conditions. With the closest support currently noticed by the EMA21 and the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level, as long as gold remains above the EMA21 the near-term bullish outlook prevails. On the other hand, once gold breaks $2,437 it will continue towards an all-time high with no significant technical resistance beyond this level ahead. All technical and fundamental conditions are supportive of price increases, so cases expecting a correction should be opened with very short-term positions. This week's market is expected to have more complex fluctuations from macro data, and the uptrend of gold prices will be noticed by the following price points. Support: 2,408 – 2,400USD Resistance: 2,437 – 2,484USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2443 - 2441 ⚰️SL: 2447 ⬆️TP1: 2436 ⬆️TP2: 2431 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2404 - 2406 ⚰️SL: 2400 ⬆️TP1: 2411 ⬆️TP2: 2416
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD → The bulls kept the market from falling. Emphasis on 2431FX:XAUUSD is working out the range support and realizing the potential of the pattern "symmetrical triangle" in a bullish direction. On H1-H4 the market is in a sideways range, locally we are dealing with a bullish trend. There is no news today. Technically, a bullish market is developing. Global trend is upward, local trend is neutral with bullish prerequisites. The price is squeezed between the resistance at 2431, which is the key resistance. A breakdown and consolidation above this zone will open a huge potential for the market. On H1, consolidation is forming above the support at 2418, a retest and liquidity capture is possible before further growth, as the bullish potential (locally) is not exhausted yet and the upward movement can be continued, but after a small correction. The market is perfectly working the lower boundary of the range 2369 and now considers the upper boundary 2477 as a potential.... Resistance Levels: 2431 Support levels: 2418, 2407, 2402 Emphasis on these levels. Most likely MM may test the support before the subsequent rise. But the primary retest of 2431 may give a small correction before the breakout and impulse to the mentioned targets. Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ FX:XAUUSD ;) Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
10
GOLD at a Tipping Point: Rally or Reversal?Comprehensive Analysis of XAU/USD (Gold vs. U.S. Dollar) Across the 1-hour, 15-minute, and 4-hour charts, the current market structure of Gold against the U.S. Dollar (XAU/USD) reveals a critical juncture, with several key technical patterns and liquidity zones influencing potential price movements. --- 1. Overall Market Structure: Large Ascending Channel (4-Hour Chart) - Channel Formation: The price has been trending within a **large Ascending Channel** since early May, with well-defined higher highs and higher lows. This channel serves as the primary structure guiding the market’s long-term movement. - Upper and Lower Boundaries: The upper boundary near 2474.774 (Daily LQZ) and the lower boundary near 2355.819 (Daily LQZ) are critical levels. The price is currently closer to the channel's upper half, indicating potential room for further upside but also a heightened risk of reversal. 2. Intermediate Market Structure: Recent Ascending Channel Breakdown (1-Hour & 4-Hour Charts) - Smaller Ascending Channel: On the 1-hour and 15-minute charts, a smaller Ascending Channel had formed recently, suggesting a potential continuation of the upward move. However, this channel experienced a breakdown, indicating a shift in short-term momentum. - Retest and Flag Formation: Following the breakdown, the price formed a flag pattern. This typically signals consolidation before continuation in the direction of the previous trend (which was down, post-breakdown). The resolution of this flag is crucial for the next significant move. --- 3. Liquidity Zones (LQZs): Key Decision Points - 1-Hour LQZ at 2441.637: A significant resistance level that the price is currently hovering near. Its strength has been tested, and it could either cap the current move or be breached if buying pressure increases. - 4-Hour LQZ at 2458.954: Positioned slightly above the current price, this is another critical resistance zone, closely aligned with the broader channel's upper resistance area. - Daily LQZ at 2474.774: This is a major resistance level that coincides with the upper boundary of the large Ascending Channel. If reached, it could signal an important inflection point. - Support at 2402.417 (1HR) and 2355.819 (Daily): These are key levels of support that could come into play if the price fails to break higher and instead moves downward. --- 4. Volume Analysis: Gauging Momentum** - Recent Volume Trends: Across the charts, volume has shown signs of moderation, particularly during the formation of the flag pattern. This suggests a potential lack of conviction among market participants, which could lead to a volatile breakout or breakdown. - Volume at Key Levels: It will be essential to monitor volume closely at critical LQZs and the flag pattern boundaries. A breakout with strong volume could confirm the direction, while a low-volume move might indicate a false breakout or temporary move. --- 5. Mass Psychology and Market Sentiment - Herd Behavior: The market is at a psychological tipping point. If a breakout from the flag pattern occurs, it could trigger a strong collective buying response, driving the price higher toward the 4HR and Daily LQZs. Conversely, a failure could lead to a rapid sell-off as participants rush to exit. - Overextension and Exhaustion: The proximity to significant resistance levels increases the risk of overextension. If the price approaches the Daily LQZ at 2474.774, traders should be cautious of a potential reversal due to exhaustion of the bullish trend. --- 6. Potential Scenarios and Strategic Considerations - Bullish Scenario: - Breakout Above Flag: A confirmed breakout above the flag pattern, supported by strong volume, could push the price towards the 4HR LQZ (2458.954) and potentially the Daily LQZ (2474.774). - Continuation Within the Larger Channel: If the price clears the 4HR LQZ, it could target the upper boundary of the large Ascending Channel, aligning with the Daily LQZ at 2474.774. - Bearish Scenario:** - Breakdown from Flag: A breakdown from the flag, especially with increasing volume, could signal a short-term bearish move, targeting support levels at 2402.417 (1HR LQZ) and 2355.819 (Daily LQZ). - Rejection at 1HR LQZ (2441.637): If the price fails to break the 1HR LQZ convincingly, it could lead to a retest of lower support levels, indicating a potential retracement within the larger channel. - Neutral/Baseline Strategy: - Wait for Confirmation: Traders might consider waiting for a clear breakout or breakdown from the flag pattern and observe how the price reacts at the nearest LQZs. This approach reduces the risk of being caught in a false move. - Risk Management: Stops should be placed strategically around the flag pattern’s boundaries or key LQZs to protect against adverse moves. --- Conclusion: The XAU/USD pair is currently at a crucial inflection point. The broader market structure, combined with recent developments in the 1-hour and 15-minute charts, suggests that the next significant move could set the tone for the short to medium term. Close attention should be paid to the flag pattern, volume behavior, and the reaction at key liquidity zones, particularly the 1HR and 4HR LQZs. A breakout could lead to a test of the upper boundaries of the larger channel, while a breakdown might see the price revisiting lower support levels within the channel. This is a classic setup where waiting for confirmation before entering a position could offer a strategic advantage, allowing for more informed and controlled trading decisions.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Adlercon333
1
Flag Pattern Alert: Gold's Big Decision!Now that the title got your attention! Take some time to fully digest the market breakdown below where we cover this further in depth! 1. Price Structure: - Downtrend: The chart shows a significant downtrend from the left side, leading to a series of lower highs and lower lows, which is a classic bearish structure. - Consolidation/Flag Formation: After a strong bearish move, the price appears to be consolidating within a flag pattern, as indicated by the 15-minute and 1-hour flag formations. This is typically a continuation pattern, suggesting that the market might continue in the direction of the previous trend (downwards). 2. Key Levels: - Daily LQZ (2,474.774): This is a higher time frame liquidity zone. Price is currently below this level, indicating that there might be significant resistance here. - 4HR LQZ (2,459.094): This zone is also above the current price, acting as potential resistance. A move towards this zone might face selling pressure. - 1HR LQZ (2,445.648): This is a closer resistance level, just above the current price action, within the range of the flag pattern. A breakout above the flag might target this LQZ. - 15M LQZ (2,415.863): Price is currently hovering around this level, indicating that the market is at a critical point where it could either bounce or break lower. - 1HR LQZ (2,402.417): If the price breaks down from the current flag, this level could act as the next target/support. 3. Potential Scenarios: - Bullish Scenario (Green Arrow): - Breakout of the Flag: If the price breaks out upwards from the flag formation, it could signal a reversal or a correction within the larger downtrend. - Target Levels: The price might aim for the 1HR LQZ at 2,445.648 first, with potential further movement towards the 4HR LQZ at 2,459.094, and eventually towards the Daily LQZ at 2,474.774 if bullish momentum continues. - Bearish Scenario (Orange Arrow): - Breakdown from the Flag: If the price breaks down from the flag pattern, it would confirm the continuation of the bearish trend. - Target Levels: The immediate target would be the 1HR LQZ at 2,402.417, followed by the next lower Daily LQZ at 2,355.819. 4. Market Phases: - Impulsive and Corrective Phases:The downtrend before the flag can be considered an impulsive phase, while the flag pattern itself represents a corrective phase. Understanding these phases can help anticipate the next move. 5. Lower High Formation: - The chart also marks a “Lower High” within the flag formation. This suggests that the bulls are struggling to push the price higher, which is a bearish signal, reinforcing the likelihood of a breakdown. 6. Volume Analysis: - Volume Support: The volume seems to be lower during the flag formation compared to the preceding downtrend, which is typical in a consolidation phase. A breakout with strong volume would give more validity to the direction. 7. Conclusion: - Bullish Bias: If the price breaks out of the flag with strong momentum and volume, a short-term bullish move towards the higher LQZs can be expected. - Bearish Bias: The overall trend and the formation of a lower high suggest a bearish continuation. If the price breaks down from the flag, the bearish scenario could play out with targets towards the lower LQZs. This breakdown gives you a structured view of the current market conditions on this chart. As always, consider combining this technical analysis with other factors like market sentiment, fundamental analysis, and your risk management strategies.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Adlercon333