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GC1! (Gold Futures)

GOLD continues to refresh all-time highs, with no resistance"Dovish" comments by Federal Reserve officials reinforced market expectations of a US interest rate cut in September. Investors flocked to gold, the safe-haven asset and Gold prices increased further and continuously reached new all-time records. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Monday that recent inflation data has reinforced policymakers' confidence that price pressures are on track to remain low, reassuring markets. market that a US interest rate cut will take place in September. San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly also said "confidence is rising" and inflation is moving toward the U.S. central bank's 2% target. Lower US interest rates are putting pressure on the dollar and bond yields, increasing the appeal of non-yielding gold. Gold prices are up more than 19% this year after rising 13% in 2023. According to CME "Fed Watch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in August is 93.3% and the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 6.7%. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged until September is 0.0%, the probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 25 basis points is 93.3%, the probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 50 basis points is 6, 7%. According to a recent report from ANZ Bank, it is worth noting that India's gold demand could help prolong the current bull run and push gold prices even higher. India is the world's second largest gold market. In the first 5 months of 2024, India's gold imports increased by 26% over the same period last year, with 230 tons of gold flowing into the country. This is despite prices reaching record highs. There are many reasons why gold has become the top choice at the present time, basically, readers can re-read recent publications via the link below to get more information. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Gold has continued to make new all-time highs and looking ahead there is currently no technical resistance left, with all price structures still tilted strongly to the upside. Currently, the closest support is the all-time high broken yesterday, the $2,449 level is notable support which if gold corrects below this level it is likely to retest the $2,431 area or more 2,400USD but the uptrend is unchanged. On the other hand, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also operating around the overbought area, showing that there is not too much room for price increases. A good signal for the downward adjustment momentum is that the RSI is bent downward. from the 80% area. Overall, even though downward corrections may occur, the bullish structure and uptrend are unchanged, as long as gold remains within the price channel, and EMA21. However, we (short-term traders) will have to face a very volatile market, the only thing that can make trading better is to be patient and control the intensity/appropriate trading volume to adapt to the current market context. Gold's uptrend will be noticed by the following price levels. Support: 2,449 – 2,431USD Resistance: (No resistance level found) 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2501 - 2499 ⚰️SL: 2505 ⬆️TP1: 2494 ⬆️TP2: 2489 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2417 - 2419 ⚰️SL: 2413 ⬆️TP1: 2424 ⬆️TP2: 2429
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
XAUUSD No buy below the 4H MA50.Gold (XAUUSD) dipped on Friday below its 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) but that doesn't affect the long-term trend (see chart below), which is still bullish within the 18-month Channel Up pattern: Even on the current 4H time-frame analysis, the price found support right at the bottom of the short-term Channel Up. However, short-term buys can only be confirmed when the price breaks above the 4H MA50 again. Technically though this remains buy territory as the 4H RSI almost hit the oversold barrier (30.00) and rebounded, which is similar to the June 26 Higher Low (bottom). The Bullish Leg that followed peaked on the 2.5 Fibonacci extension level, which on the new potential Bullish Leg is perfectly aligned with our long-term Target as well. That remains 2600. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by TradingShot
EURUSD has broke back of interests for the weekEarlier this week, ECB President Christine Lagarde expressed confidence in the euro zone inflation being under control. In contrast, the recently released Fed minutes indicate a negative impact on the committee's confidence in achieving 2% inflation and suggest that it will take more time to recover. The minutes were recorded before the latest US CPI data, highlighting that a single positive print is not enough for the Fed to consider interest rate cuts seriously. EURUSD was expected to give up last week's gains as the FX market focused on higher yielding currencies like the US dollar, Pound Sterling, and the Kiwi dollar. Despite breaking out of an ascending channel, EURUSD traded slightly higher in the London AM session following improved European flash PMI data for May. German manufacturing data showed signs of improvement, moving closer to the neutral 50 mark, and there was a slight increase in sentiment in the services sector as well. Channel support, now resistance, serves as the nearest challenge to dollar strength heading into the end of the week. 1.0800 and the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) present downside levels of interest.
by Xayah_trading
2
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [July 15 - July 19]Latest data shows that it is impossible to cool down the gold market. Spot gold closed down about 4 dollars at 2,410 USD/oz, recovering quickly from the short-term selling pressure created when PPI data was released. US PPI rose slightly higher than expected in June as higher carrier margins more than offset falling commodity costs. On Friday (July 12), data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the producer price index (PPI) increased 0.2% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year. last year, higher than expected. However, Gold prices rose to their highest since May 22 on Thursday after a surprise drop in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI). The data reinforced the view that the deflationary trend has continued and raised hopes of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. as early as September. With the Fed now wary of labor market weakness, financial markets are increasingly betting that the Fed will cut interest rates in September and are predicting a further fall in borrowing costs in December. As noted by readers in the brief comments when the data was released on the impact trend observation data, PPI data is typically not tracked as closely as CPI data so the impact of it for CPI data will be insignificant. In other words, if CPI and PPI are on the same trend, PPI will synergistically boost the impact of CPI. Otherwise, if PPI is not on the same trend, its impact will not be as great as CPI. As the market gradually approaches a low interest rate environment (assessing expectations based on macro data), inflation cools and dovish comments from the Fed increase expectations for interest rate cuts, these factors will be solid support for precious metals. Not taking into account other unexpected factors from geopolitical risks that can escalate at any time, in all cases when geopolitical conflicts occur, gold is always chosen as a safe haven. Notable economic data and events next week Monday: Empire State Manufacturing Survey, Powell speaks at the Economic Club of Washington, D.C. Tuesday: Retail sales in the US Wednesday: US housing construction figures and building permits Thursday: ECB monetary policy decision, weekly jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed survey Data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows that for the week ending July 9, speculative net long positions in COMEX gold futures increased by 13,062 lots to 191,603 lots . Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD After adjusting and retesting the support area noted by readers in the previous edition, the area around 2,400 - 2,390 USD gold recovered to close above the original price of 2,400 USD. In terms of weekly closing position, the weekly closing above 2,400 USD should be considered a positive signal because at this point the original price point of 2,400 USD has become the closest technical support point of gold price. The bullish technical structure remains unchanged with the price channel as the medium-term trend and the price channel as the short-term uptrend. The fact that gold keeps its price activity in the above two price channels provides conditions for price increases towards the levels of 2,425 - 2,449 USD in the near future, on the other hand, the Relative Strength Index has not yet reached the overbought level, showing that there is an overbought level. The place to buy is still available. Looking ahead, technical conditions support a bullish case for gold prices on the daily chart, with notable technical levels listed below. Support: 2,400 – 2,390USD Resistance: 2,425 – 2,449USD 📌The trading plan for next week will first be to buy if the price is around 2375, watch to sell around 2450, then wait to buy again at 2350, wait to sell at 2480.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD → False breakdown. Will we return to the bullish trend?FX:XAUUSD is entering the correction phase after a false breakdown of trend resistance and the previous ATH. The fundamental background is changed by Thursday's news that supported the dollar. Overall, the environment on D1 is still bullish. If the price finds a strong support in the near future, for example 2390-2400, this area may get the status of an intermediate bottom, thus forming a new trading range. There is no news today, thus the fundamental background remains the same. Trading has been complicated lately by the presidential race in the USA. The statements of Powell, politically dependent Fed, Trump can be perceived by traders quite strongly. But the medium-term outlook is determined by the fact that politicians are generally set to lower the dollar, which is generally favorable for gold, which may soon return to the bullish trend phase (locally) Resistance levels: 2420, 2429, 2450 Support levels: trend, 2402, 2900 Technically, the price may continue the correction to trend support, but due to the pool of liquidity in the area where the price may land within the correction, gold may get a reaction in the form of a bounce to the nearest resistance Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ GOLD ;) Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
25
GOLD → Consolidation before rising to 2500...FX:XAUUSD after breaking through trend resistance is forming a consolidation, just like the dollar. Sellers start selling on indicators and MM may set a trap before further growth. Technically and fundamentally gold has a favorable environment. The price is in the buying zone and in the ATH zone. There is a lot of support (obstacles) from below, and there is emptiness from above and nothing prevents to go up. There is consolidation on H1 and all technical conditions are favorable for the continuation of growth. BUT! There is an interesting pattern forming on H1-M30, which can give a small correction as a trap for sellers before further growth. Now a lot of selling is forming on indicators (overbought, rsi, macd and so on), accordingly, MM may show a reversal. The whole emphasis is on 2461, If the price fixes below, the gold may be driven to the liquidity zone: 2450, 2440, 2430 before further growth. Resistance levels: 2475, 2484 Support levels: 2461, 2450 If the price consolidates below 2461, a retest of the support is possible before further growth. If a rebound is formed, consolidation above 2467-2475, we should wait for a retest of resistance with a breakout attempt. Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ GOLD ;) Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
39
GOLD driven by CPI, next eye on PPI dataThe release of the US inflation report shows that the Federal Reserve will soon cut interest rates. The US Dollar fell sharply and gold prices reached a 6-week high then corrected slightly in the Asian trading session today Friday (July 12). CPI data reinforces expectations of a Fed rate cut • US consumer prices unexpectedly fell in June, with the smallest annual increase in a year, reinforcing the view that disinflation is back on track and prompting the Federal Reserve to take action an important step in cutting interest rates. • The U.S. Department of Labor reported Thursday that the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell 0.1% month-over-month in June, the first decline since May 2020 US seasonally adjusted CPI rose 3.0% year-on-year in June, below market expectations of 3.1%, the lowest since June last year. • Additionally, the seasonally unadjusted core CPI in the US recorded an annual increase of 3.3% in June, below market expectations of 3.4% and the lowest level since April /2021. • The seasonally adjusted monthly core CPI rate in June was 0.1%, below market expectations of 0.2% and the lowest since August 2021. CME Group's (CME) Federal Reserve interest rate tracker shows that after the release of US CPI data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 92.6%, significantly higher than Wednesday's 70%. Since gold does not earn interest, falling interest rates could reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold and increase the investment appeal of the precious metal. On the other hand, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has attended US Senate and House committee hearings over the past 2 days, and his testimony shows that the Fed is getting closer to a decision to cut interest rate. Today (Friday), investors will focus on the US Producer Price Index (PPI) for June and the preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for July. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD After reaching and breaking the original price level of 2,400 USD, the target increase noticed by readers in previous publications, gold is also making certain adjustments. And the $2,400 raw price point now becomes the closest support on the daily chart. The bullish technical structure of gold prices remains unchanged with all supporting factors from the trend price channel, support level at the original price point of 2,400 USD and maintaining price activity above the 21-day moving average (EMA21). In addition, the Relative Strength Index has not yet reached the overbought level, showing that there is still room for price increases in the near future. As long as gold remains within the trending price channel, the main technical outlook for gold prices remains bullish, with notable technical points listed below. Support: 2,400 – 2,390USD Resistance: 2,424 – 2,449USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2441 - 2439 ⚰️SL: 2445 ⬆️TP1: 2434 ⬆️TP2: 2429 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2379 - 2381 ⚰️SL: 2375 ⬆️TP1: 2386 ⬆️TP2: 2391
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD increased about 1%, the third consecutive week of increaseWorld gold prices decreased but still maintained the 2,400 USD/oz mark in the trading session on Friday (July 12) and completed the third consecutive week of increase thanks to expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will soon interest rate cuts. Some experts predict that gold prices could re-establish an all-time record in the next few days. This week, world gold prices increased by about 1%, marking the third consecutive week of increase. On Thursday, gold prices reached their highest level in 6 weeks, thanks to motivation from a statistical report showing that the US consumer price index (CPI) in June unexpectedly decreased. The data reinforces the view that the downward trend in US inflation has resumed and increases the likelihood that the Fed will begin cutting interest rates in September. A report from the US Department of Labor on Friday showed that PPI - a measure of wholesale inflation - increased 0.2% in June compared to the previous month, higher than the 0.1% increase forecast by economists. reported in a survey by Reuters news agency. In May, this index moved sideways compared to April. However, the above report basically did not change interest rate expectations. Data from CME's FedWatch Tool shows that traders still bet on a more than 93% chance of the Fed lowering interest rates in September. The world's largest gold exchange-traded fund (ETF) SPDR Gold Trust had its second consecutive week of net gold purchases this week, but the net purchase amount only reached 0.3 tons of gold. Data from the fund's website shows that at the end of Friday, this fund was holding approximately 835.1 tons of gold. The prospect of lower interest rates has put downward pressure on the USD this week, causing the Dollar Index to fall 0.34% on Friday, closing the week at 104.08 points - according to data from MarketWatch. For the whole week, this index decreased by 0.75%, bringing the total decrease in the past month to nearly 1.4%.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
XAUUSD Resistance break-out and re-test confirm rally continuatiThis is a small Gold (XAUUSD) update on Monday's idea (see chart below) as we have a major Resistance break-out: As you can see, the price action is so far following our trading plan and following the Resistance break-out, we see it potentially moving a little higher and then pulling back to re-test the Resistance as a Support. That happened on the previous Bullish Leg break-out (March 06) and then after a successful Resistance re-test, Gold resumed the uptrend and rose by +22.40%, hitting the 2.0 Fibonacci extension. As a result, we will move our Target marginally higher at 2630, even though the 2.0 Fib extension is at 2690. The reason is the May 04 2023 High, which as priced on a +15.26% rise, the 'weakest' Bullish Leg since the September 2022 market bottom. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by TradingShot
1
GOLD → ATH Testing. Fundamental background is favorable FX:XAUUSD continues to strengthen as the fundamental background improves. A rate cut is coming, as hinted by Powell, the dollar is poised to decline against this backdrop.... According to Powell, the Fed has "more evidence and confidence" that inflation is cooling, so they may cut rates before inflation reaches the 2% target. Traders generally believe in the continuation of the growth of the metal, technically this background is also maintained. The price is approaching the ATH, but the liquidity behind this zone may push the price back, forming a small correction, for example to 2430-2420 before the price starts to return to 2450 before rising further. Resistance levels: 2440, 2450 Support levels: 2430, 2420 Fundamentally and technically the background is favorable. It is worth looking for strong zones to open long trades, but it is worth paying attention to ATH, as a false breakdown could form a correction. The growth may continue rather quickly Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with GOLD ;) Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
10
This is why gold's breakout stopped dead in its tracks at an ATHThe combination of dovish Fed comments and a softer inflation report from Canada excited gold bulls enough to send spot prices convincingly to a record high on Tuesday. It was gold's best day in 4 months and closed near the high of the day. Yet it couldn't quite stretch to $2370. And here is why... The front-month adjusted futures contract for gold rallied in tandem with spot prices, yet failed to test its own record high set in May. And until it does, I remain suspicious of runaway gains for spot gold prices. in fact, it raises the odds of a pullback for gold. We're not looking to be bearish gold, as the breakout is solid, market positioning remains convincingly bullish without being a sentiment extreme and fundamentals support higher prices. But intraday traders should at least be aware of resistance on the futures contract, to manage their own expectations for spot gold prices if nothing else.
COMEX:GC1!
by CityIndex
Gold & Silver May Rally 65% to 120% Before End Of 2025This updated research video highlights why I believe Gold and Silver are about to launch higher over the next 90+ days - into the upper ranges of my BreakAway phase. This move would represent a 20~25% move for Gold and a 35~45% move for Silver. But the BIG MOVE won't happen till after November 2024. That's when I expect to see Gold make a large upward move targeting $3500~3750+ and Silver making a move targeting $40~55+. Why am I so confident metals will make this aggressive move higher? It comes down to two things. A. If the US economy continues to be the 900-lb Gorilla compared to other global economies, then metals will become the primary or secondary hedge asset for most of the world (the US dollar being the other). B. The turmoil related to a new US President (new policies, plans, foreign relationships) could present a very real tipping point for certain aspects of the global economy. And it does not matter if Trump or Biden wins. The reality is the world will be shifting quickly into a transition phase as we move closer to 2030. Part of the Generational Cycle process that many people fail to understand is human psychology paired with excessive central bank manipulation over the past 20+ years. This has led to a very interesting global central bank predatory mode, which is currently playing out quite aggressively related to global currencies. The primary hedge instruments are US-Dollar-based assets and metals. That will probably continue - but at a more significant demand rate. All of this plays out as an incredible opportunity for skilled traders. Go get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
COMEX:SI1!Long
by BradMatheny
2
XAUUSD Coming out of its consolidation and turning bullish.Gold (XAUUSD) is on a sustainable short-term rise above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and is coming out of a consolidation pattern (blue) similar to December 2023 - February 2024. Both were supported by the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) and both are within the long-term 18-month Channel Up. This could technically be the start of the 3rd Bullish Leg of this pattern. Our Target is a 'modest' 2600, which may be almost +15% from the bottom, but would still be the weakest Leg of the three. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by TradingShot
3
GOLD Begins Downtrend Amid Fed Rate Cut SpeculationsGold prices have initiated a downside movement during the early European session on Monday. Market participants appear convinced that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will start cutting interest rates in September, which is seen as a potential tailwind for the non-yielding yellow metal. Our analysis indicates that the price is currently within a supply area, showing a rebound on the daily timeframe. Commercial traders remain bearish on gold, while retail traders are holding bullish positions. Despite not having all the confirmations, we anticipate a possible drop in gold prices towards the previous demand area. The prevailing market sentiment suggests a potential for gold to continue its downward trajectory. Moreover, the markets are also factoring in the possibility that the Fed will lower borrowing costs again in December. This expectation is preventing the US Dollar (USD) from capitalizing on its modest recovery from a three-month low, adding another layer of support for the USD-denominated gold price. Typically, lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, thereby boosting its appeal. As the Fed's monetary policy outlook continues to evolve, the anticipation of rate cuts is likely to influence gold prices further. The interplay between commercial and retail traders' positions, along with broader market dynamics, will play a crucial role in shaping the future price movements of gold. In conclusion, with the early signs of a downtrend in gold prices and the market's conviction about impending Fed rate cuts, we are poised to see continued volatility. The current supply area and the bearish sentiment among commercial traders support the case for a potential decline towards the previous demand area. Investors should closely monitor these developments to make informed decisions in the gold market. ✅ Please share your thoughts about GOLD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by FOREXN1
4
GOLD → Favorable fundamental background. Will we go to 2450?FX:XAUUSD updates high to 2424 amid favorable news. Buyers are returning with the belief that the dollar will continue to fall on the back of the imminent interest rate cuts. CPI indicates significant easing of inflationary pressures in June. Annual inflation fell to 3%, the lowest rate in a year. This report provides evidence to the Fed that inflation is easing, but most likely it is not enough for them and they will need 1-2 reports confirming the fact that inflation is under control and a move into deflation is forming. Ahead of PPI and traders are focusing on this report as favorable data could reinforce fresh selling in the US Dollar. This, in turn, could trigger a rise in gold prices. But, it is worth considering the unpredictability of the news in your trading. Resistance levels: 2411, 2416, 2424 Support levels: 2396, 2392, 2385 Technically, a small correction is possible after a false breakdown of resistance, which in general may lead to testing the imbalance zone before the next growth, if the fundamental background after PPI is maintained or intensified.... Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with gold ;) Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
18
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [July 08 - July 12]After gold retested the $2,364 level it broke this technical level over the weekend and headed towards the original price point of $2,400. As sent to readers in recent publications, in terms of technical factors, gold price still has enough conditions for a bullish outlook with the main support being noticed at the EMA21 moving average line, The fact that gold prices are operating above the 21-day moving average makes this moving average a reliable support. On the other hand, in the short term the 0.236% Fibonacci level is also a notable support point; Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index is pointing up without reaching the overbought level, showing that the upward price momentum is still widespread. In the immediate future, the target level will still be noticed at the original price point of 2,400 USD, this is an important price point where the gold price can make short-term downward adjustments here. However, once the original price level of 2,400 USD is broken, gold will continue to move towards 2,449 USD in the short term. The bullish outlook for gold prices will be highlighted again by the following technical points. Support: 2,364 – 2,350 – 2,345USD Resistance: 2,400 – 2,449USD 📌The trading plan for next week will be to buy if the price returns to test around the 2335 barrier, and to sell if the price approaches the 2440 area.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD moves closer to 2,370 USD, pay attention to CPIIn the Asian market today, Wednesday (July 10), OANDA:XAUUSD Spot delivery suddenly increased rapidly in the short term, gold prices approached the mark of 2,370 USD/ounce. On Tuesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell did not give a clear signal that an interest rate cut was imminent. In testimony before Congress on Tuesday, Powell said that inflation "remains above" the Fed's 2% target, but it has improved in recent months, so if the Fed wants to start cutting rates productivity, they need more good data to support its plausibility. Powell also noted that the labor market has cooled, adding that “we now have bilateral risks” and can no longer focus solely on inflation. But Powell did not offer the dovish stance some market participants were looking for. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will appear before the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday. This hearing was Powell's last public address to Congress before the United States presidential election. Following Powell's congressional speech, the market's focus is on the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) to be released on Thursday. Recent data shows US CPI data starting to decline from unexpectedly high levels at the beginning of the year. According to CME "Fed Watch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in August is 95.3% and the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 4.7%. The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged until September is 26.7%, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 70.0%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 3 .3%. When interest rates are low, the attractiveness of gold tends to increase and boost gold prices. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold continues to try to recover from the downward correction earlier this week and is heading towards the price area that was the resistance target noted by readers in yesterday's publication, at the price point of 2,377. USD. The fact that gold maintains price activity above 2,364USD is considered a positive technical signal. Meanwhile, once gold breaks the resistance at 2,377 USD, it will have enough technical conditions to continue towards the subsequent target level at the original price point of 2,400 USD. In terms of the overall technical chart, gold has all the bullish conditions with the main trend from the price channel, the nearest support is noticed at the technical point of 2,364 USD and the support confluence of the price channel, Fibonacci retracement. 0.236% and EMA21 moving average. As long as gold remains above the EMA21, the near-term technical outlook for gold prices remains bullish, with notable technical levels listed below. Support: 2,364 – 2,345 – 2,340USD Resistance: 2,377 – 2,400USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2384 - 2382 ⚰️SL: 2388 ⬆️TP1: 2377 ⬆️TP2: 2372 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2337 - 2339 ⚰️SL: 2333 ⬆️TP1: 2344 ⬆️TP2: 2349
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD corrects and recovers, pay special attention to today's CPIOANDA:XAUUSD eased after a significant rise on Wednesday and started to recover in early Asian trading today (July 11). Powell's testimony hinted at expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, a stronger dollar and rising bond yields, while investors await June U.S. inflation data to come. announced this weekend. A clearer picture of the path of US interest rates after the release of CPI and PPI data. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said Wednesday local time that current monetary policy is restrained and the neutral interest rate has increased, at least in the short term. Usually when Powell talks about a higher neutral interest rate, it means a higher long-term policy rate. Powell said policy rates have been kept high for longer than initially expected because inflation and the labor market have been slow to respond. But Powell added that this is an issue the Fed will consider in its next policy review, which begins later this year, so it could have an impact on long-term interest rates going forward. Powell reiterated on Wednesday that more good data is needed to strengthen his stance on loose monetary policy. On inflation, Powell said Wednesday that he is not yet confident that inflation will fall sustainably toward the 2% target. However, there is no need to wait for inflation to drop to 2% to cut interest rates. Regarding the prospect of cutting interest rates, Mr. Powell said the Fed does not need to wait until inflation falls below 2% before cutting interest rates. Regarding interest rate cuts, no specific inflation value (standard) is noted. The Fed has made great progress in shrinking its balance sheet, but there is still a long way to go. According to CME's "Fed Watch" tool, the market expects a 74.1% chance of the Fed cutting interest rates in September and another rate cut in December. Market focus is now shifting to US CPI and PPI data released on Thursday and Friday respectively. Recent data shows that US inflation has eased from unexpectedly high levels earlier this year. Pay special attention to CPI data that will be published at 7:30 p.m. Hanoi time today, Thursday (July 11). If inflation data continues to shrink, this will continue to be a fundamental factor in favor of gold prices. On the other hand, if inflation is higher than expected, it will boost the Dollar and cause gold prices to face the possibility of a correction. significantly reduced. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Although gold prices have adjusted downward after increasing significantly in yesterday's trading session, the general trend has not changed with factors supporting the possibility of price increases. In the immediate term, sustaining above $2,364 provides gold prices with the closest support and once it breaks $2,377 it will have room to continue bullish with a target then at the 2,400 raw price point. USD in the short term. As long as gold remains above the EMA21 and within the price channel, the bullish technical outlook will not change, on the other hand, the RSI pointing up without reaching the overbought level suggests room for further upside. The technical side remains on the daily chart. During the day, the uptrend of gold prices will be noticed again by the following technical points. Support: 2,364 – 2,350USD Resistance: 2,387 – 2,393 – 2,400USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2401 - 2399 ⚰️SL: 2405 ⬆️TP1: 2394 ⬆️TP2: 2389 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2337 - 2339 ⚰️SL: 2333 ⬆️TP1: 2344 ⬆️TP2: 2349
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD correction, nearest support level, main technical trendDuring the European market trading session on Monday (July 8), spot gold tended to adjust significantly intraday since the 6-week high reached last week. The current gold price is about 2,372 USD/ounce, down more than 18 USD during the day. Gold prices adjusted gently mainly due to the recovery in Bond Yields, with the 10-year US Bond Yield at 4,308 recovering 0.61% on the day. In addition, China's suspension of gold purchases for the second consecutive month in June put pressure on gold prices. Official data released Sunday showed China's central bank's total gold holdings were unchanged at 72.8 million ounces as of the end of June. In May, China's central bank decided to pause the increase in gold reserves, ending an 18-month gold buying spree that was seen as a support that had helped gold prices rise to record highs. Currently, the market believes that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September is 73.8%, slightly reduced from the 74% probability after the release of US nonfarm payroll data on Thursday. Six weeks ago, according to FedWatch data provided by CME group. On the daily chart, as noted by readers in the previous issue, the current correction in gold prices has not yet reached the first support level at 2,364 USD and as long as gold remains above the level 2,364USD, the ability to adjust will still face many limitations. Instead, the support level at $2,364 is noted as a near-term support level that could push gold prices further towards the original price point of $2,400. In case the gold price continues to be sold below 2,364 USD, it has conditions to adjust further with a target level of about 2,340 USD, the price point of the 0.236% Fibonacci level. However, in the overall technical picture, the technical trend of gold price is still more inclined towards the possibility of price increase with the following price points being noticed. Support: 2,364 – 2,360USD Resistance: 2,392 – 2,400USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2411 - 2409 ⚰️SL: 2415 ⬆️TP1: 2404 ⬆️TP2: 2399 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2359 - 2361 ⚰️SL: 2355 ⬆️TP1: 2366 ⬆️TP2: 2371
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
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