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GC1! (Gold Futures)

GOLD - GC Weekly Recap & Outlook | 27.07.2025🧾 Weekly Recap: • Price tapped into the 1H Demand Zone (red box) and ran the 4H swing liquidity before bouncing to clear internal range liquidity. • This move was followed by a retracement which led to a break of the bullish trendline. This may signal the beginning of a broader accumulation phase. Expect choppy price action targeting internal liquidity both above and below, before a clear trend resumes. 📌 Technical Analysis: Price has closed below the bullish trendline, leading to two possible scenarios: 1. Bullish scenario (black path): – Price runs the W C DOL (3313$) → – Finds rejection → – Retests broken trendline → – Breaks above the trendline → – Continues toward 3444$ and potentially 3474$ 2. Bearish scenario (orange path): – Price runs W C DOL (3313$) → – Rejects from the broken trendline → – Fails to reclaim it → – Continues downward to target M C DOL (3256$) 📈 Setup Trigger: Wait for clear 1H–4H supply/demand zone creation and structure shift before initiating a trade. 🎯 Trade Management: • Stoploss: Above/below relevant supply-demand zone • Targets: – Bullish: 3444$, 3474$ – Bearish: 3256$ 🟡 If you liked the idea, feel free to drop a like & comment — and don’t forget to follow for more weekly updates.
COMEX:GC1!
by UA_CAPITAL
XAUUSD (GOLD): Wait For The BOS! FOMC and NFP Looms!In this Weekly Market Forecast, we will analyze the Gold (XAUUSD) for the week of July 28 - June 1st. Gold is in the middle of a consolidation. Bas time to look for new entries! FOMC on Wednesday and NFP on Friday. Potential news drivers to move price in a decisive direction! Wait for a break of structure (BOS) either direction before entering a new trade. Be mindful that the Monthly is bullish, and the Weekly is neutral. The Daily is bearish, with 3 days of data indicating so. I am leaning towards this bias, as the draws on liquidity are near and obvious. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
FX:XAUUSDShort
by RT_Money
10
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Jul 28 - Aug 01]This week, OANDA:XAUUSD prices had a positive start, rising sharply from 3,345 USD/oz to 3,439 USD/oz because investors were concerned about the risk of financial market instability when US President Donald Trump continuously pressured the FED Chairman to reduce interest rates, and there were even rumors of the Fed chairman resigning. However, the upward momentum in gold prices was not maintained when the US continuously reached trade agreements with partners such as Japan, Indonesia, Philippines..., cooling down the trade war. This caused gold prices to drop sharply for three consecutive trading sessions, at one point the gold price dropped to 3,325 USD/oz and closed at 3,336 USD/oz. Trade war worries are starting to subside. Therefore, we continue to witness a shift of investment capital flows from gold to risky assets such as stocks.. Notably, this week is the fourth time gold prices broke the $3,400 threshold but did not stay above this level. Next week, in addition to the FED meeting, the market will also receive information about US non-agricultural employment (NFP) data. If this index falls stronger than expected, it will further strengthen expectations that the FED will continue to keep interest rates at the current level in upcoming meetings, causing gold prices to drop even more sharply next week. 📌In terms of technical analysis, the three crows pattern (3 long red candles) appeared on the D1 chart, showing that sellers were still in control throughout the past 3 trading sessions without much buying power. This technical pattern often suggests that gold prices may be shifting from their recent upward trajectory into a more prolonged period of decline. This technical signal also quite coincides with the context of many fundamental factors, such as geopolitical conflicts, trade wars, low physical gold demand in the summer... no longer strongly supporting gold prices as before. However, according to many experts, if the gold price drops sharply, it will be a good opportunity to buy, because the gold price is forecast to still increase strongly in the long term. On the H4 chart, gold price may continue to adjust down below the 3,285 USD/oz mark, before recovering again. Meanwhile, the 3,450 USD/oz area is still a strong resistance level for gold prices next week. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 3,310 – 3,300 – 3,292USD Resistance: 3,350 – 3,371 – 3,400 – 3,430USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3383 - 3381⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3387 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3316 - 3318⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3312
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Xayah_trading
GOLD continues to correct down, good news from trade situationOANDA:XAUUSD has fallen sharply again, currently trading around $3,360/oz, reflecting the easing of global trade tensions, affecting demand for safe-haven assets. The US Dollar and US Treasury yields have also increased, affecting gold prices. The US Dollar Index ( TVC:DXY ), which tracks the greenback against six other currencies, rose to 97.56. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note US10Y rose to 4.386%. The US real yield, calculated by subtracting inflation expectations from nominal interest rates, rose nearly 3.5 basis points to 2.046%. Markets are increasingly optimistic about such deals after the United States and Japan reached a trade deal, and the European Union could be next. In addition, rising stock markets and low volatility have kept gold's gains in check. The United States and the European Union are moving toward a potential trade deal that would include a 15% tariff on EU goods and zero tariffs on some items. The European Commission said Thursday that a negotiated trade solution with the United States is within reach. “Our focus is on reaching a negotiated outcome with the United States,” a European Commission spokesperson told reporters about the EU-U.S. tariff talks. “We believe that such an outcome is achievable.” The European Commission has repeatedly said that its current priority is to reach a deal with the United States to avoid the 30% tariffs that U.S. President Trump has proposed to impose on EU products starting August 1. On the economic data front, initial jobless claims in the United States unexpectedly fell last week, suggesting the job market remains solid. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Thursday that initial jobless claims fell to 217,000 in the week ended July 19, below expectations of 227,000 and down from 221,000 the previous week. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD Gold is heading for its third consecutive day of decline since hitting the bullish target level sent to readers in the weekly edition on Sunday at $3,430. Despite the sharp decline, gold still has enough technical conditions for an uptrend given its current position and structure. Specifically, gold is still above the EMA21, which is considered the nearest support at the moment. Along with that, the uptrend price channel is the short-term trend. However, for gold to qualify for a short-term bullish cycle, it needs to be confirmed by price action above the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, then the target is $3,400 in the short term, more than $3,430. On the other hand, RSI is still holding above 50, and 50 in this case acts as momentum support. Therefore, gold still has room to rise. In case gold is sold below EMA21, it may suffer a further decline with the next target around $3,310 in the short term, more than $3,300 and the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level. And if gold loses the support at the 0.382% Fibonacci level, it will qualify for a bearish cycle. Intraday, the current position of gold price is still tilted towards the upside, and the notable price points will be listed as follows. Support: $3,350 – $3,310 – $3,300 Resistance: $3,371 – $3,400 – $3,430 SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3406 - 3404⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3410 →Take Profit 1 3398 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3392 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3329 - 3331⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3326 →Take Profit 1 3337 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3343
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
Gold Futures (GC1!) Long Setup – 0.5 Fib Bounce🟡 Gold Futures (GC1!) Long Setup – 0.5 Fib Bounce After nailing the long from the bottom and perfectly shorting the top, we’re stepping back in for another calculated move. 📉 Price pulled back to the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement, aligning perfectly with the upward trendline support and a key HVN on the Volume Profile. 📈 Entered long at 3,365 with a tight stop below 3,354 (0.3% risk), targeting the descending trendline near 3,444 for a clean 7.7R setup. 🧠 Context: Price reacted hard at resistance, but volume support and structure still lean bullish. Clear invalidation if we break trend and lose 3,350 support cluster. Let’s see if this bounce gets legs. 🚀
COMEX:GC1!Long
by JoshuaDanford
From 3,430 USD GOLD falls below 3,400 USD on optimistic newsOANDA:XAUUSD has suffered a sharp sell-off after rising sharply earlier in the week. Media reports said the United States and the European Union were getting closer to reaching a tariff deal, and the news weighed on safe-haven demand. OANDA:XAUUSD fell below $3,400 an ounce on Wednesday, down more than 1.2%, following news that the United States and the European Union were close to signing a deal similar to the one Washington and Tokyo signed on Tuesday. It is now trading below that key base point. The European Union and the United States are moving toward a trade deal that could see more EU goods hit with a 15 percent U.S. import tariff, two diplomats said. Earlier, U.S. President Donald Trump reached a trade deal with Japan that would cut auto tariffs to 15 percent. Optimism about an imminent U.S.-EU trade deal overshadowed a decline in the U.S. dollar. The U.S. dollar index (DXY), which measures the greenback against a basket of six currencies, fell 0.05 percent on the day to 97.160. U.S. Treasury yields rose, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising to 4.396%. U.S. real yields, calculated by subtracting inflation expectations from nominal yields, rose nearly 4 basis points to 1.994%. Gold tends to gain in value during times of uncertainty and low-interest-rate environments because gold itself does not generate interest, and in low-interest-rate environments, the opportunity cost of holding gold is relatively low. U.S., EU near trade deal The Financial Times reported on Wednesday that the European Union and the United States are close to reaching a trade deal that would impose a 15% tariff on imports from Europe, similar to the one reached between US President Donald Trump and Japan this week. The Financial Times reported that Brussels is likely to agree to so-called “reciprocal tariffs” to avoid tariffs that Trump has threatened to impose on EU goods of up to 30% from August 1. “The agreement reached with Japan is clearly extortionate in terms. Most member states are swallowing their anger and are likely to accept the deal,” an EU diplomat said. The two sides will exempt some products, including aircraft, spirits and medical equipment, from tariffs. The agreement between the US and Japan has also left Brussels reluctant to accept higher reciprocal tariffs to avoid a damaging trade war, according to the Financial Times. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, after gold reached its target at $3,430, it failed to break above this important resistance level and fell slightly. The decline brought gold back to test the support confluence area, which is the location of the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement with the lower edge of the price channel. And with the current position, gold still technically has enough conditions for a possible increase in price. Specifically, gold is still in/above the supports from the short-term price channel, the long-term rising price channel and the support from the EMA21, as long as gold is still trading above the EMA21, it still has a bullish outlook in the short term. On the other hand, the short-term target is still at 3,430 USD, while once the 3,430 USD level is broken, it will provide the possibility of further upside with the next target at around 3,450 USD in the short term, more than the all-time high. RSI remains above 50, far from the 80 – 100 area (overbought area). Showing that there is still a lot of room for upside ahead. During the day, the technical outlook for gold prices continues to favor upside and notable positions will be listed as follows. Support: 3,371 – 3,350 USD Resistance: 3,400 – 3,430 – 3,450 USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3421 - 3419⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3425 →Take Profit 1 3413 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3407 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3354 - 3356⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3350 →Take Profit 1 3362 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3368
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
Gold Futures Long Setup – Breakout Continuation off the 0.618 FiGold Futures Long Setup – Breakout Continuation off the 0.618 Fib Instrument: Gold Futures – COMEX ( COMEX:GC1! ) Timeframe: 15-Minute Trade Type: Long – Breakout Continuation Entry Zone: 3390 (0.618 Fibonacci retracement) Take Profit: 3428 (0.786 Fib) Stop Loss: 3384 Risk/Reward Ratio: 6.68 Setup: Bullish Flag on Retest 🔍 Trade Thesis This trade is part of an ongoing breakout continuation strategy we've been trading, and now we're eyeing a pullback entry as price returns to a key retracement level. Price nearly exploded through the 0.618 Fibonacci level (3390) during the prior breakout. Now it's pulling back in a textbook bullish flag formation, suggesting healthy consolidation before the next leg. The 0.618 retracement is aligning with previous intraday structure and trendline support — making this an ideal level to scale in. This is a high R:R continuation play, with targets set at the 0.786 Fib level (3428) — right before macro resistance kicks in. 🎯 Entry & Exit Strategy Entry: As price touches 3390 or forms bullish confirmation at the level. Stop Loss: 3384 – tight and below key fib/flag structure. Target: 3428 – based on 0.786 Fib extension and breakout continuation projection. 📊 Why This Works Breakout behavior: Price respected the breakout impulse and retraced cleanly into a bull flag. Fib confluence: 0.618 pullbacks are a classic entry in trending markets. R/R of 6.68: Excellent reward profile vs. limited risk.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by JoshuaDanford
XAUUSD 4H Golden Cross preparing a massive break-out.Gold (XAUUSD) has been trading on a 3-week Channel Up, which is approaching its top but at the same time, it's been trading within a 3-month Triangle, which is also approaching its top. The key here is the formation today of a Golden Cross on the 4H time-frame, the first since May 28. Being at the end of the long-term Triangle pattern is technically translated to the structure's tendency to look for a decisive break-out above its top that attracts volume (buyers). It is possible to see an initial rejection followed by a break-out that will re-test the top of the Triangle as Support and then follow the long-term trend dynamics. Those are technically bullish and previous break-out in April targeted the 2.618 Fibonacci extension. Our Target remains a little below it at $3770. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TRADENATION:XAUUSDLong
by TradingShot
1
Time to invest in JPY and TN/bond? Hello FX/futures traders! Market is at a pivotal point. Not in a bad way, but in a good way! Chart 2: TVC:DXY Let's start with the US Dollar . A declining USD was just well defended the last few days. If this is true, then the stock up, dollar down scenario is likely to continue. This is good for equities. Chart 4: COMEX:GC1! Gold defends its trendline as well. It seems like gold wants to go up more. A raising gold in the current scenario suggests declining USD TVC:DXY . This isn't always true, but we have to look at the current correlation and makes the best educated guess on this. Logical Deduction 1: Chart 1: CBOT:TN1! A consolidation phase has been going on for almost 2 years now. This is definitely a good sign to long bond, as at least we know the likely bottom for stoploss. With dollar leaning down and gold up, I think TN will defend its current level around 110-113. Logical Deduction 2: Chart 3: CME:6J1! JPY is defending its first key level since May 2025. A wedge is forming, and the breakout is about to take place later this year. Likely the consolidation phase will take more time (with likelihood to breakout to either side). But with a declining USD side by side, I consider now a good entry point to long JPY with controllable risk. Let me know what you think!
CME:6J1!Long
by BoiPlunger
GOLD (GC) Weekly Recap & Game Plan 20/07/2025🪙 GOLD (GC) Weekly Recap & Game Plan 📊 Market Context: Price is currently forming an accumulation pattern. The purple zone marks a key weekly demand zone, and I expect a potential bounce from that level. I'm closely watching for trendline deviations to determine the directional bias. 🎯 Game Plan: If price drops below the trendline and bounces from the weekly demand, I’ll look for longs targeting the bearish trendline. If price taps the bearish trendline and shows clear rejection, I’ll look for shorts targeting the bullish trendline. I'll wait for LTF confirmations before entering any position. ✅ Follow for weekly recaps & actionable game plans.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by UA_CAPITAL
GOLD ( XAUUSD ): Watching For A Short Term Buy ConfirmationIn this Weekly Market Forecast, we will analyze the Gold (XAUUSD) for the week of July 21-25th Gold has been in consolidation for a couple of weeks now. The price action hasn't allowed for very many FVGs... until last week. There is a +FVG I am keeping an eye on, as it will be very telling how price reacts to it upon contacting this POI. If it holds, higher prices will ensue. If it fails, to the lows of the consolidation we go. We'll soon see how it plays out. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
FX:XAUUSD
by RT_Money
3
GOLD! Pre-Market Analysis For Friday July 18th!In this video, we'll present pre-market analysis and best setups for Friday July 18th. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by RT_Money
GOLD tests $3,310 then recovers, continues sidewaysInternational OANDA:XAUUSD fell to the support level of 3,310 USD, then recovered and continued to stabilize sideways due to the stronger US Dollar and market tensions eased after US President Trump said it was "extremely unlikely" to fire Federal Reserve Chairman Powell. As of the time of writing, spot OANDA:XAUUSD was trading at 3,339 USD/oz. Reuters reported on Wednesday that Trump is still open to the possibility of firing Powell. However, Trump said on Wednesday that he has no intention of firing Powell at this time, but did not completely rule out the possibility and reiterated his criticism of the Fed chairman for not lowering interest rates. Data showed US producer prices unexpectedly held steady in June, as the impact of higher import tariffs on goods was offset by weakness in the services sector. The unchanged US PPI in June showed wholesale prices were stabilising, suggesting the economic impact of tariffs may be smaller than initially feared. The lower-than-expected core CPI and core PPI data did not provide the boost that was expected, which could mean that the market is focusing on other aspects. More broadly, as the Fed gradually eases policy, real yields could continue to fall, and gold will maintain its upward trend. However, if the market continues to reprice expectations for a hawkish rate cut, this could trigger a short-term correction. SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund (ETF), said its holdings rose 0.33% to 950.79 tonnes on Wednesday from 947.64 tonnes in the previous session. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold rebounded after falling and tested the support level noted by readers in yesterday's edition at 3,310 USD. The recovery brought gold prices back to work around the EMA21, continuing the sideways accumulation trend. Structurally there is no change, as for gold to qualify for an upside move it needs to break resistance at the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level then the short term target is the raw price point of $3,400. Meanwhile for gold to complete its bearish cycle it needs to sell below the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level then the short term target would be around $3,246, more than the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement level. The relative strength index (RSI) is also unchanged with the RSI activity around 50, indicating a hesitant market sentiment without leaning towards any particular trend. Intraday, the technical outlook for gold prices continues to be a sideways accumulation trend, and the notable positions will be listed as follows. Support: 3,310 – 3,300 – 3,292 USD Resistance: 3,350 – 3,371 USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3386 - 3384⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3390 →Take Profit 1 3378 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3372 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3276 - 3278⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3272 →Take Profit 1 3284 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3290
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD's narrowing range, tariffs, Trump's political dramaOANDA:XAUUSD is still trading in a narrowing range, affected by the tariff game and the political drama that Trump is building. Currently, the price of gold is trading around 3,339 USD/oz, equivalent to a small decrease of about 7 dollars on the day. Tariff Game On July 16, US President Donald Trump announced that he would send letters to more than 150 countries, with tariffs expected to be 10% or 15%, to promote trade. He said these countries are not major US partners and will be treated equally, but left open the possibility of negotiating exemptions. The tariffs are similar to those proposed in April but were postponed due to concerns about market volatility. The resumption of the tariffs continues to destabilize financial markets and surprised partners such as the European Union, as they hoped to reach an early agreement with the US. Political Play Also on July 16, global financial markets were shaken by rumors that President Trump intended to fire Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Many major news agencies such as the New York Times, Bloomberg and Reuters reported that Trump had prepared a letter of dismissal and consulted with Republican lawmakers, receiving positive feedback. Removing Powell before his term was believed to undermine confidence in the US financial system and the safe haven status of the USD. Trump later denied the plan, saying it was unlikely to happen unless there was serious wrongdoing. Markets reacted strongly: the USD fell and then recovered after Trump's statement, while gold lost most of its previous gains by the end of the session. The gold market in particular, and the financial economy in general, are being affected by the activities of Trump, the creator of the global trade war, and the plays of Trump and the FED leading the market. Therefore, the basic formula in the current market context is best to follow Trump, and make sure not to miss any of Trump's status lines. Technical outlook analysis of OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, the technical structure has not changed with the trend not yet clear and the price action clinging to the EMA21. The technical conditions do not favor an uptrend or a downtrend, typically the RSI moves around the 50 level, indicating a hesitant market sentiment. On the upside, gold needs to achieve the condition of breaking above the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level of the price point of 3,371 USD then the target level will be around 3,400 USD in the short term, more than 3,430 USD. Meanwhile, on the downside, gold needs to break below the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement, which would confirm a loss of the $3,300 level, then target around $3,246 in the short term, more than the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement. Intraday, the sideways trend of gold price accumulation will be noticed by the following technical positions. Support: $3,310 – $3,300 – $3,292 Resistance: $3,350 – $3,371 – $3,400 SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3381 - 3379⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3385 →Take Profit 1 3373 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3387 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3309 - 3311⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3305 →Take Profit 1 3317 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3323
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
4
Gold Futures ($GC1!) — US Session Setup: Bearish Retest from 618🟡 Gold Futures ( COMEX:GC1! ) — US Session Setup: Bearish Retest from 0.618 Fib in Bullish Breakout Context ⏳ Pre-US Session Playbook We're currently watching Gold Futures ( COMEX:GC1! ) for a potential short opportunity into the US session open. While the broader structure has broken bullish, we're anticipating a bearish retest scenario from a key Fibonacci level — aligning cleanly with last week’s breakout structure. No positions have been taken yet — we are setting up for the US session — and are closely monitoring price action near the 0.618 retracement zone before committing. 📍 Setup Breakdown • 0.618 Fib Retracement from the last bearish impulse aligns with: ○ Recent volume shelf resistance ○ Retest zone from prior breakout ○ An overextended local push into thin volume above 3380 • Bullish Context: ○ HTF breakout from descending wedge structure remains valid ○ Macro buyers still in control ○ Upside continuation risk is high if sellers don’t show up • Short Bias Conditions: ○ Rejection or absorption in the 3385–3390 zone ○ Weak follow-through above 0.618 (failed breakout scenario) ○ Breakdown of LTF higher low structure post-test 🧠 Strategy Commentary Although we’re in bullish breakout mode, this is a tactical short setup — a fade into prior structure with clear invalidation. We're not fighting trend, but looking to short into exhaustion at a defined level, with tight risk parameters. Confluence Factors: • 0.618 fib alignment • VRVP volume shelf • Prior breakout structure retest • LTF divergence or absorption confirming the fade 🎯 Trade Parameters (Planned) • Entry Zone: ~3385–3390 • Stop Loss: Tight, 3395–3400 • Target Zone: 3342–3337 (full structure retest) 📌 Patience is key — this remains a setup until confirmed. We'll post live if and when conditions are met. Let the market come to you.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by JoshuaDanford
GOLD in narrow range, after sharp drop on US CPI dataOANDA:XAUUSD fell sharply on Tuesday (July 15) as the US Dollar TVC:DXY gained significantly after the US CPI report was released. As of now (July 16), gold is trading at 3,326 USD/oz, equivalent to an increase of only 2 USD in the day. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) in June was in line with expectations but higher than the previous value. The surge in the Dollar after the US released the June CPI is the main reason for the pressure on gold prices so far. • Data released by the US on Tuesday showed that the US CPI increased by 2.7% compared to the same period last year in June, in line with expectations, but higher than the 2.4% in May. • The US CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month in June, in line with market expectations but up from a 0.1% increase, the largest increase since January this year. • In addition, the US core CPI rose 2.9% year-on-year in June, up from 2.8% in May, while the core CPI in June rose 0.2% month-on-month. The market generally believes that US President Trump's tariff policies have increased price pressures, prompting the Federal Reserve to wait and see what further action to take. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell previously said he expected prices to rise in the summer. The market is still expecting the first rate cut in September. Investors are looking ahead to Wednesday's U.S. producer price index data for more information on the Federal Reserve's move. Since gold does not yield interest, it typically performs well in low-interest-rate environments, whereas high-interest-rate environments or expectations of future rate hikes put pressure on gold prices. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold is trading in a fairly narrow range after 2 sessions of downward adjustment, but the specific trend is still unclear, as sent to readers throughout last week, the technical conditions mainly show a sideways accumulation movement. After testing the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, gold was unable to overcome this resistance, and the decline from this position brought the gold price close to the support of 3,310 USD and then the area of the original price point of 3,300 USD with the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement. With the technical conditions not giving a specific trend as they are now, for gold to be able to have a new bullish cycle it needs to move the price action above the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, then the target would be around $3,400 in the short term, more than $3,430. On the other hand, if gold falls below the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level again, it could be a good signal for an expectation of a bullish cycle, then the target would be around $3,246 in the short term, more than the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement level. The relative strength index is hovering around 50, indicating that the market is hesitant in terms of momentum and is not leaning towards a specific trend. During the day, with the current sideways accumulation, gold will be noticed by the following technical levels. Support: 3,310 – 3,300 – 3,292 USD Resistance: 3,240 – 3,250 – 3,371 USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3383 - 3381⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3387 →Take Profit 1 3375 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3369 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3304 - 3306⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3300 →Take Profit 1 3312 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3318
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
GOLD again targets $3,371, new bullish cycle conditionToday (Tuesday, July 15), in the Asian market, the spot OANDA:XAUUSD maintained a slight recovery trend, currently at around 3,360 USD/ounce. The spot OANDA:XAUUSD rose to a 3-week high on Monday, but quickly fell back and finally closed lower. Trump's open attitude towards trade negotiations has improved the market's risk-on sentiment and negatively impacted gold, a safe-haven asset. But gold still has a lot of potential risks for price increases, and personally, the fundamental trend for gold has not changed. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its June Consumer Price Index (CPI) report today (Tuesday). According to a Reuters survey, economists expect the US CPI to increase year-on-year in June to 2.7% from 2.4% the previous month, while the core CPI is expected to increase year-on-year to 3% from 2.8%. The survey also showed that the US CPI is expected to increase 0.3% month-on-month in June, and the core CPI is also expected to increase 0.3% month-on-month. According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's "FedWatch Tool", the market believes that the Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates in July and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in September is about 30%. If the US core CPI rises by 0.4% or more in June, this could prompt market participants to reassess the possibility of a rate cut in September. In this case, the US Dollar could hold steady and push gold prices lower. On the other hand, if the data is lower than expected, gold will become more attractive while a weaker Dollar will be positive for gold prices. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD After gold reached the resistance target of attention to readers in the weekly publication at 3,371 USD, which is the location of the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement, it fell slightly but is now recovering positively. Currently, gold is trading in the range of 3,360 USD, the price action above the lower edge of the long-term rising price channel with support from the EMA21, gold is now likely to continue to retest the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level. If gold breaks above $3,371 it will be eligible for a new bullish cycle, with the target then being around $3,400 in the short term, more so than $3,430. On the other hand, the RSI is pointing up, maintaining activity above 50, and this should be considered a positive signal in terms of momentum. It shows that there is still a lot of room for growth ahead. However, as of now, gold is still neutral in terms of trend, with conditions gradually tilting towards the possibility of price increase. Along with that, the notable positions will be listed as follows. Support: $3,350 – $3,340 – $3,310 Resistance: $3,371 – $3,400 – $3,430 SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3390 - 3388⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3394 →Take Profit 1 3382 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3376 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3304 - 3306⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3300 →Take Profit 1 3312 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3318
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
Back above $3,300, GOLD may remain neutral, tax focusOANDA:XAUUSD reclaimed the psychologically important level of $3,300/ounce last week, but while gold is still receiving some support as a safe haven amid economic and geopolitical risks, its upside momentum may be limited as the market shifts its attention to other commodities. Gold prices ended last week on a generally bullish note, rising back above $3,300 an ounce after US President Trump unexpectedly announced a series of new trade policies. Spot gold prices rose about 0.5% last week on Friday. Although the market initially doubted Trump’s self-imposed July 9 deadline, the overall market reaction remained steady and the renewed risk appetite helped the S&P 500 hit a new record high, somewhat undermining gold’s safe-haven appeal. The July deadline has been pushed back to August 1, but the global trade conflict is far from over. Gold has regained support after initial pressure after Trump announced a new trade policy on copper imports, along with a series of news stories about the relationship between Trump and the FED sent to readers throughout the past week. A sharp rise in copper prices will also add to inflationary pressures, exacerbate economic uncertainty and raise concerns about recession and stagflation. In this context, gold is expected to continue to receive support from potential risks. In addition to fierce competition in the commodity market, gold may remain fundamentally neutral in the short term, as economic data will support the Fed's neutral monetary policy. The key market focus next week will be the June Consumer Price Index (CPI). The Fed has made it clear that it is in no rush to raise interest rates while inflation risks remain high. However, traders still need to be cautious and closely monitor the situation surrounding the tariff war initiated by Trump, which will directly affect the price of gold. In case of negative news, the gold price will receive support and vice versa if positive news appears in the market. Over the weekend, US President Trump once again used the tariff tactic, announcing that he would impose a 30% tax on imports from the EU and Mexico, causing a strong reaction from the international community. This move not only casts a shadow over the relationship between Europe and the United States, as well as between the United States and Mexico, but also adds further uncertainty to the global trade model. EU politicians, businesses and academics were quick to respond, calling for unity to protect their interests, while Mexico stressed the need to maintain national sovereignty and pledged to respond calmly. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold has a 3-day rally, and the upside momentum has reached the important target resistance at the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level. Gold's upside momentum is also limited by this Fibonacci retracement level, specifically it has slightly dropped to $3,355/oz. But overall, gold is still not in a position to form a specific trend, and the indicators and positions are mainly showing the possibility of continuing to accumulate sideways. For gold to have the conditions for a new bullish cycle, it needs to bring price activity above the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, then the target will be around $3,400 in the short term, more than $3,430. Meanwhile, a pullback, which sees gold sell below the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement, would open the door to a bearish cycle, with a target of around $3,246 in the short term, rather than the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement. RSI hovering around 50 also suggests a hesitant market sentiment, so the short-term bias for gold is neutral. Along with that, notable positions will also be listed as follows. Support: $3,350 – $3,310 – $3,300 Resistance: $3,371 – $3,400 – $3,430 SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3406 - 3404⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3410 →Take Profit 1 3398 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3392 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3340 - 3342⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3336 →Take Profit 1 3348 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3354
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
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