Gold XAU GC LongGold had another very strong daily close today.
My DOL is Monday's high.
I will be looking for a pullback to respect a H1/H4 bullish array, to then give me the go ahead to enter on a bullish displacement on m5/m15 timeframe.
GC1! (Gold Futures)
The Gold Odyssey - Breaking out!Its been years of waiting and I think it is about time!
Gold is rotating back and should finally close the week outside of the constipation box (yellow).
MACD and VolDiv are crossing above and should be supporting a rise in Gold.
New target for this run, 2600 (Jan 2025).
Heads up!
GOLD fundamentals and technicals are unevenGold prices (XAU/USD) climbed on Thursday, pushing past the $2,040 threshold and reaching their highest level since early February at one point during the trading session, although gains seemed to be capped by a strengthening U.S. dollar.
The precious metal’s positive performance was fueled, in part, by falling U.S. Treasury yields, which reacted to an in-line economic report. Specifically, January's core PCE deflator clocked in at 0.4% m/m and 2.8% y/y, just as projected.
Investors, rattled by the recent CPI and PPI data, braced for further inflation pain, but were relieved when the Federal Reserve’s favored price gauge landed precisely on its expected mark. This gave gold bulls an excuse to reengage long positions.
Looking ahead, traders should not be taken aback if Thursday's rally proves to be short-lived. When markets come to terms with the fact that sluggish progress on disinflation and looser financial conditions could prompt the Fed to delay the start of its easing cycle, bullion may face renewed downward pressure.
OANDA:XAUUSD FORECAST – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Focusing on gold’s outlook, technicals and fundamental analysis are currently at odds. That said, Thursday's bullish breakout, which saw XAU/USD push past trendline resistance and the 50-day simple moving average at $2,035, is clearly a positive sign. Should this move be sustained, a rally towards $2,065 may be on the horizon. Above this area, all eyes will be on $2,090.
On the contrary, if sellers return and spark a bearish reversal below $2,035, sentiment toward the yellow metal could quickly sour. Under these circumstances, bears may gain confidence to mount an assault on the 100-day simple moving average, located around $2,010/$2,005. Further declines below this support zone could pave the way for a retreat towards $1,990.
🥇 GOLD - Consolidation before growth. Next ATHGold is holding fairly steady in the flat 2080 - 2090 after a strong rise that started back at the end of last week. Interest in the metal is quite high, which has recently increased investment in the metal as a safe-haven asset. The bullish trend may continue after the false breakdown of the nearest support, as well as after the breakdown of 2090.
Reasons for further growth:
1) Strong trend. The market is growing on accumulated liquidity
2) Gold interest on the background of weak dollar is growing
3) There is no fall from 2088.
4) Consolidation is formed, in the format of a "flag". Growth may continue
XAUUSD Break-out to $2200 or pull-back $2030?Gold (XAUUSD) is rising and has gotten very close to the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the long-term Channel Up pattern that started in November 2023. As long as it gets rejected within the pattern, it is a sell opportunity targeting $2030, which is above the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement zone and near the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Channel Up. The 1D MACD appears to be in a similar sequence as on July 20 2023, which initiated a strong sell towards the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line).
On the other hand, if Gold breaks and closes above the Channel Up, we will not hesitate to take the loss on the sell and open a buy, as it will have stronger probabilities of imitating the December 04 2023 bullish break-out, which completed a +11.37% rise before correcting as well to the 0.786 Fib and the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). As a result in that case, our target will be $2200, which would represent a +11.00% rise from the February 14 Low.
In fact, +11% rallies have been common in the past 12 months for Gold, delivering 3 such occasions. Each one has corrected to an MA period and the one that has been untouched for longer is the 1D MA200, which by the time of a correction will be very close to the bottom of the Channel Up.
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GOLD → Re-test 2085. The distribution is not yet finalized FX:XAUUSD is testing the maximum. After a long consolidation, a distribution phase is formed, which leads to a false breakdown of the intermediate resistance level. What should we wait for next, decline or growth?
The distribution phase is clearly demonstrated on the background of volume growth. The price is testing the intermediate level of 2084.5 and forms a false breakdown. The value of the level is big enough, but not enough to turn the market. The 2084 area continues to hold the price, but based on the data on the H1 chart we can assume that gold will test this resistance with the aim of breaking through it, as the distribution phase is not over yet.
If the compression to the upper boundary of the consolidation on H1 continues, namely to Friday's high, a breakout and further growth to the next intermediate targets may happen with a high probability.
Support levels: 2079,5, 2069.9, 2065
Resistance levels: 2088.4, 2100
The growth is not over, as the realization of the accumulated potential inside the consolidation is not exhausted yet. There is a possibility of correction, but at the break of 2079.5. But still, I stick to the break of resistance and further growth
TVC:GOLD COMEX:GC1! COMEX_MINI:MGC1! TVC:DXY
Regards R. Linda!
Mar 4th 2024 GC Update - Potentially a start of something bigAnother share from the TTR, this time is a commodity chart - #GC
Beautiful move up on Friday!
The price has stopped right at the trendline support; there is one more resistance box above it. When/If it is broken, we will see the next trendline tested again, followed by a breakout box.
This is a very bullish action as if the price continues to break out, then expect some geopolitical issues to come next, which means the markets could be near its maj top!
GOLD competing against US PCE dataThe U.S. dollar edged higher today, but displayed measured strength amid subdued U.S. Treasury yields. A sense of caution permeated markets as traders anxiously awaited the looming release of the core PCE deflator, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. This economic report can greatly influence the central bank’s monetary policy outlook so it could bring volatility in the days ahead.
Forecasts suggest that January's core CPI rose 0.4% m-o-m, resulting in a slight deceleration in the yearly print from 2.9% to 2.8%, a baby step in the right direction. In any case, the substantially higher-than-anticipated CPI and PPI readings for the same period underscore a key point: investors may be underestimating inflation risks, leaving them vulnerable to an upside surprise in tomorrow’s data.
A hot PCE report indicating minimal progress on disinflation may prompt Wall Street to scale back bets on the number of rate cuts envisioned for 2024, while increasing the odds of the FOMC delaying its easing cycle to the second half of the year. A hawkish repricing of interest rate expectations should exert upward pressure on U.S. Treasury yields, boosting the U.S. dollar but weighing on gold prices.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OANDA:XAUUSD
Gold rose on Wednesday but encountered resistance around the $2,035 mark, a key technical roadblock where a downtrend line converges with the 50-day simple moving average. Sellers need to firmly protect this ceiling to thwart bullish momentum; any lapse could trigger an upward surge towards $2,065.
Alternatively, if sentiment shifts back in favor of sellers and XAU/USD takes a turn to the downside, the first key floor to watch emerges at $2,005, near the 100-day simple moving average. Should selling pressure continue, traders may eye $1,990, followed by $1,995 as potential support levels.
GOLD increased despite reduced volatility due to falling dollarWorld gold price stood at 2,032 USD/ounce, equivalent to the price at the same time yesterday morning. Gold prices increased slightly and then decreased when the market received mixed economic information.
Specifically, negative information comes from the Conference Board survey results published on February 27 showing that the US consumer confidence index decreased in February to 106.7, down from 110. 90 revised down in January. Consumer optimism fell more than expected as economists forecast 114.8. In particular, the expectations index decreased to 79.8 from 81.5. “An expectation index below 80 typically signals an impending recession,” the report said.
On the contrary, the positive data is that the February production index in the US increased from negative 15 points last month to negative 5 points this month and higher than the negative 9 points previously forecast. The US house price index in December decreased from 6.7% to 6.6%.
When consumer confidence declines, it will affect the consumption of goods, as well as production. The sharp increase in the manufacturing index shows that the US economy is still recovering positively. Falling house prices will impact the consumer price index as well. This affects the interest rate policy of the US Federal Reserve (Fed).
Economic data is mixed, so investors are still cautious in trading.
XAUUSD Approaching the top of the Channel Up.Gold / XAUUSD has had the strongest 1D green candle today since December 13 2023 and is approaching the top of the 3 month Channel Up.
That is a sell opportunity especially with the 1D RSI entering the overbought region.
That has formed the Highs of October 27th and December 1st 2023, which declined by -4.03% and -4.93% respectively.
The maximum decline inside this Channel Up has been -4.99% (February 14th 2024), which tested the 0.786 Fibonacci level.
Sell and target 2020 and if you want more risk, 2000, which is under the 0.786 Fib and at the bottom of the Channel Up.
Previous chart:
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GOLD → Retest of 2050. Can the price go even higher?FX:XAUUSD is breaking through strong resistance and testing the 2050 area, favorably influenced by the fundamental background from Thursday. The market is trying to move into a bullish phase, but globally the price is held back by a huge sideways flat.
Idea from 29.02: GOLD → Consolidation is narrowing. The calm before the storm
On H4 we see the price trying to form a consolidation above the previously broken trend lines of resistance. Support at 2041 is now playing an important role. Since the opening of the session on Friday, gold tested this area with a false breakdown, after which a bullish impulse was formed and XAU is already testing the resistance 2048.
Img: Current situation: resistance breakout on H4
A break of this area will confirm the price going beyond the correction, which may help the upside to 2057-2060. But, a correction from 2048 is possible before a further rise to the above targets, and we should also pay attention to today's news. It is necessary to watch the price reaction to this zone.
Resistance Levels: 2047.8 - 2049, 2057
Support levels: 2044, 2041
I expect the growth to continue, because both technically and fundamentally, the market is pointing to it now. But, there may be a fall in the price if the structure of 2044-2041 is broken. In this case, the price may head towards the channel support
TVC:DXY TVC:GOLD COMEX:GC1! COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
Regards R. Linda!
GOLD → Consolidation is narrowing. The calm before the storm FX:XAUUSD is holding strong, yesterday's economic news also supported the price. The price of metal forms numerous retests of resistance, as well as forms a pre-breakdown consolidation.
The complexity of the situation is that we have a very narrow range and within this range the market maker will gain liquidity by any means, but sometimes there are prerequisites that do not guarantee, but hint at a possible movement in one direction or another. Numerous retests of resistance and absence of fall after false breakdown of resistance with the subsequent return to the test and formation of pre-breakdown consolidation tell us that the market is ready for growth. But! Today is the news! Be careful!
A break of resistance and the level of 2037.1 will form a phase of realization, in this case the price can realize the impulse to 2044-2048. But, if the price falls and breaks 2031, the overall structure will be broken.
Resistance levels: 2037.1, trend resistance
Support levels: 2034, 2031
Strong consolidation is forming on H4. Breakout of one of the boundaries will form a strong impulse. Now there are prerequisites for the breakout of resistance, it will happen only if there is a signal for the breakout and further confirmation. We continue to wait
TVC:DXY TVC:GOLD COMEX:GC1! COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
Regards R. Linda!
GOLD increased by weak USD and tensions in the Middle EastWorld gold prices increased with spot gold increasing by 10.7 USD to 2,034.9 USD/ounce. Gold futures last traded at 2,045.5 USD/ounce, up 14.5 USD compared to yesterday morning.
After a series of stable days, world gold increased on Friday thanks to the weakening of the USD and increased safe-haven buying due to concerns related to developments in the Middle East. The US Dollar Index recorded its first weekly decline in nearly two months, making bullion priced in greenbacks cheaper for overseas buyers.
Gold's recovery in the last trading session of this week was mainly due to the weakness of the greenback. Safe-haven buying also provided a boost to precious metals. However, gold's rise in recent times has been restrained by hawkish comments from US Federal Reserve (Fed) officials.
On Thursday this week, Fed Governor Christopher Waller emphasized that there will be "no rush" to make a decision to cut interest rates. This has reinforced investors' confidence that the US will delay loosening monetary policy until June.
In the minutes of the first policy meeting of 2024, most Fed policymakers expressed concern about the risks of cutting interest rates too soon. Recent data showing higher-than-expected U.S. producer and consumer prices also dashed speculation of an early interest rate cut and that added pressure on bullion.
GOLD likely to increase prices sharplyClosing the weekend trading session, world gold price stood at 2,035 USD/ounce, a sharp increase of 22 USD/ounce compared to last week's closing session. For the whole week, gold prices increased by 1.4%. The bulk of gold's gains came on Friday as the precious metal was boosted by safe-haven demand and weakness in the greenback.
In the context that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) continues to maintain its interest rate stance, most opinions believe that the gold market is expected to still face risks. However, gold may benefit when the US Central Bank delays loosening monetary policy. The longer the central bank delays, the greater the risk of policy mistakes. Although gold has struggled since the beginning of the year, this expert is still impressed by the strength of this precious metal.
GOLD price struggles for directionWith all the excitement this week for the US stock market, and Nvidia in particular, gold has been left on the sidelines waiting for a macro boost. Next week's economic calendar has a host of potential movers with next Wednesday's US Q4 GDP and Thursday's core PCE release the two most likely candidates for a boost. price action.
In recent weeks, the Federal Reserve has been discussing the need to curb excessive optimism regarding interest rate cuts. Initially, the markets predicted around 170 basis points of rate cuts for this year, starting in March. The Fed's plan for three cuts, beginning in the second half of the year, was initially seen as insufficient. However, their persistence and positive data releases have aligned market expectations. Currently, the market predicts a total of 83 basis points in cuts, with the first cut fully priced in for the July 31st meeting.
This paring of cut expectations has weighed slightly on gold, capping further upside. Gold has lost around $100/oz. this year and the weekly chart shows a negative trend still in play. A break below $1,984/oz. is needed to keep this trend in place. A break above $2,044/oz. brings $2,070/oz. back into focus.
GOLD Long Idea-This week I've had an overall bullish bias for Gold to head to the PWH after we put in a fractal swing low on the weekly, confluence with wicking below several weekly lows.
-Although today's Daily candle close isn't super strong, I'm still leaning towards looking for longs.
-Daily candle rejected from the Daily +OB again, and also failed to displace and close below Tuesdays Low.
-I am targeting Wednesdays high, and the PWW.
-I want to see H4/H1 discount arrays being respected, followed by a displacement entry confirmation on M15/M5.
GOLD confluent resistance stops the uptrendGold prices lost ground on Monday following a strong performance last Friday, pressured by rising U.S. Treasury yields - a situation that generally diminishes the appeal of the non-interest-bearing asset relative to fixed-income securities. In this context, XAU/USD finished the session around $2,030, slightly below a confluence resistance zone near $2,035.
Many investors appeared to adopt a wait-and-see approach on the precious metal at the start of the new week, refraining from making large directional bets for fear of being caught on the wrong side of the trade. This cautious sentiment was likely attributed to an important event on the U.S. economic calendar on Thursday: the release of the core PCE deflator, the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge.
Forecasts suggest January's core PCE increased 0.4% month-over-month, resulting in a slight deceleration of the annual reading from 2.9% to 2.8%. However, traders should brace for the possibility of an upside surprise in the data, echoing the trends observed in the CPI and PPI surveys disclosed earlier this month. This could inject volatility into financial markets.
XAUUSD: LH on the Channel Down formed.Gold has reached the top of the 4H Channel Down pattern, while the 4H MA50 and the 4H MA200 just formed a Golden Cross. Despite that, and as long as the 1D technical outlook isn't bullish (RSI = 54.450, MACD = -0.200, ADX = 28.783) but more importantly the price is inside the Channel Down, the sentiment remains bearish. The 4H RSI is on the same kind of Bearish Divergence as it was on all prior LH tops, which prompts to the strongest sell signal possible on the medium-term aimed at the S2 level (TP = 1,975), potentially a -3.95% decline as the last LL.
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GOLD → The price is coming down again. New targets?FOREXCOM:XAUUSD does not reach the resistance zone. Another strong seller appears on the market. The market pressure is formed and the price of XAU forms a set-up that predicts further decline to the range support.
Today at 13:30 the US GDP will be published. Analysts expect GDP to decrease by 1.6%. But based on the general data there is a possibility that the data may be slightly higher than expected, if this happens, it is a positive scenario for the dollar, which will negatively affect the price of gold.
Technically, on H1 there is a strong density of resistance and the price breaks the support of the local ascending channel, which plunges the market into a negative phase. Before the news a correction to resistance may follow before further decline. At the moment the target may be the area of 2015 - 2008.
Resistance levels: 2031, 2034
Support levels: 2025.8, 2015, 2008
Gold is trading inside the range, the liquidity area on the resistance side has been tested, but the sellers are very aggressive on the background of the growing dollar. The gold price is heading towards the support and there is a high enough chance to see a retest of the lower levels.
CAPITALCOM:DXY TVC:GOLD COMEX:GC1! COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
Regards R. Linda!
GOLD → Retest of liquidity area before further decline FOREXCOM:XAUUSD is forging a local trend after a small correction on Monday. At the moment, as the prices are trading inside the flat, the target is the area of 2044-2048, from which a decline may follow.
On D1 we see two key figures, which play an important role at the moment - resistance 2048 and the descending price channel, which characterizes the whole market at the moment. The price has been heading towards the target 2044-2048 since the opening of the session on Tuesday and with a high probability, within the descending price channel, a retest of the resistance may follow and a false breakout may be formed. Against the background of this movement we have no clear preconditions for resistance breakout, therefore, against the background of flat and descending channel I am waiting for the realization of the scenario "false breakout of resistance with the subsequent price decline to support"
Resistance levels: 2044, 2048
Support levels: channel support, 2025
The global role is played by the flat. Within the flat a bearish channel is formed on D1. That is, based on this set-up we can assume that we have a neutral-negative mood. Consequently, after retesting the liquidity area, the price may form a correction to the support
TVC:GOLD COMEX:GC1! COMEX_MINI:MGC1! TVC:DXY
Regards R. Linda!
XAUUSD BEARISH PROBABILITY hello guys ,
i think xauusd is bearish the market structure on high time frames is brearish todays candle closed as an inverted hammer tommorow will probably be a red candle add to that the price formed a double top pattern the break out of the trendline + key level will cause a price to make a lower low lower then 1980 .
DXY has a massive inverted head and shoulder so a positive addition to our technical analysis .
keep in mind a bullish probability is possible too a break out of the trendline will cause a run towards 2050.
but i am bearish !
XAUUSD One more bearish leg left to 1930.Gold (XAUUSD) maintains its Channel Down status since last December and so far has established the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) as the current Support having been nearly tested 2 weeks ago. The current analysis is on the 1W time-frame, which offers a highly reliable long-term outlook.
As you can see Gold has been on a highly symmetrical 4-year Channel Up pattern (since December 2019) with the recent top (week of December 04 2023) being the latest Higher High. Even though the natural technical target on such pattern is the bottom of the Channel (0.236 Fibonacci retracement level), it is more likely for the downtrend to stop on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which is headed straight for the 0.786 horizontal Fib, which has also been a standard target within this pattern.
For us, since there is a Higher Lows trend-line coming straight from the October 31 2022 bottom involved, we will initially target that on the medium-term, on a 193 target and then see if we can short again upon a rebound if the downtrend remains intact.
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GOLD → Resistance Retest. What are the chances of a FB?FOREXCOM:XAUUSD is forming a correction and testing strong downward resistance formed from 2150. The chances of a breakout are a little less than a false breakout, which, at this point in time, we are betting on.
On the senior timeframe we can clearly see that the price is testing a strong resistance area. There is no clear trend, something similar to a descending triangle is forming with the boundaries: descending resistance and support area 1980-2000.
Technically, even the imposed sanctions on Friday did not show a proper market reaction. On the background of high rates and tight Fed policy, the gold market is still under the pressure of sellers. It is still worth emphasizing 2038.15 and the downside resistance. False breakout and price consolidation below these lines, followed by a downward breakout at 2031.16 may form a price decline to the support of the 2021-2015 range.
Resistance levels: red line, 2038, 2042
Support levels: 2031, 2021, 2015
At the moment we are betting on the formation of a false breakdown, as there are more preconditions for this than for the price to break this area. The market is still in a global flat
TVC:DXY CAPITALCOM:GOLD COMEX:GC1! COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
Regards R. Linda!
