XAUUSD Bullish above and bearish below this level.Gold has had the strongest 2 day rally as this week closed since December 14th.
This rally was initiated on the MA50 (1d), which is where all (2) Higher Lows of the Channel Up where priced at.
Technically this maintains the long term Channel Up but there is also the dotted Channel Down that is intact.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell as long as the price doesn't cross over the dotted Channel Down.
2. Buy if it crosses above it.
Targets:
1. 1995 (bottom of Channel Down).
2. 2089 (Resistance 1).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) is about to cross its MA trend line. Every time this happend since October, it has been a buy signal.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
GC1! (Gold Futures)
Gold: Recovery? ❤️🩹Since yesterday, gold has been moving slightly higher. We're therefore one step closer to fulfilling our primary expectations. We still expect the price of the precious metal to rise further in the course of the turquoise wave B, and the upcoming high should be well above the 4th December high. However, it could also be that the price has already placed the high. This alternative scenario comes into play if the price falls below the support level of $1935 and has a probability of 40%.
GOLD → It's a stalemate. The market can grow FOREXCOM:XAUUSD reaches our target, but after a false breakdown of support 2016, the market quickly buys back all the fall. Now the price is heading towards a strong resistance
The most interesting thing is that three times in a row the US market received fundamentally bullish news. The TVC:DXY has been in the same place for 10 days now and cannot pass through resistance, which speaks volumes about the state of the index and the mood of the market. The market is overheated and in all likelihood the index is preparing for a decline. Gold is not so eager to react to bearish news and at any opportunity the market tries to buy back the fall.
At the moment the price of gold is heading to the resistance of the ascending channel, from here two scenarios can develop:
1) False breakout may lead to a pullback, within which the price may break through 2031.8. Consolidation below this level will continue the correction phase and within the descending channel the price may head towards 2016
2) False breakout will form a small correction to 2030-2031. But, the fundamental background will play its role and the price will start forging resistance retests for a breakout. Breakout of downside resistance and 2038.9 level is a signal and price consolidation above these areas will be confirmation
Support levels: 2031.8, 2025
Resistance levels: MA-200, 2038.9
I think that the chance is higher towards the resistance breakout than towards further decline. We follow the price reaction beyond the mentioned zone and wait for confirmation of one or another scenario to open trades
Regards R. Linda!
GOLD → How might today's news affect gold?FOREXCOM:XAUUSD is trading in a range, as evidenced not only by trading between levels, but also between moving averages. The reason for this is the controversial fundamental environment.
The market is reacting weakly to bullish news for the dollar because fundamentally it is already overheated. Speculators react very strongly to negative news than positive news and in the current environment this is worth considering.
Important news is being published today. In general, analysts are expecting bullish CPI data and bearish Initial Jobless Claims data. Bad data for the $ will push gold up, to the point where the price could change its local trend. But good news for the $ may continue to form an actual range for gold 2015 - 2050.
It is worth paying attention to the strong resistance on the dollar 102.6, technically, the index is ready to go down and very strongly (This should have a positive impact on the price of gold), but I wonder what will show today the funamental market.
Support levels: 2030, 2020, 2015
Resistance levels: 2039, 2049
On the news, the price may test strong zones. At the moment, there is no clear understanding of the strength of the news we will receive, but according to a number of assumptions we have a chance to strengthen the price of gold
TVC:DXY COMEX:GC1! COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
Regards R. Linda!
GOLD → Bounce to 2050, or consolidation 2030-2040FOREXCOM:XAUUSD is trading within a descending channel, from support the price is heading towards resistance, while the dollar continues to consolidate in anticipation of tomorrow's news.
Gold price after another false breakdown of support and retest of the liquidity zone forimizes the rally and tests 2040. Most likely the target for the market is embedded higher, around 2048-2050
Pay attention to the dollar. The price is in consolidation for 6 days near the level of 102.6. Important news is published tomorrow, the market is probably waiting for bad news for the dollar, as the bears are forming a strong resistance zone.
Gold may enter the risk zone (resistance area) before the news, but if the price does not pass the 2040 area, the price will form a consolidation until tomorrow waiting for the fundamentals.
Support levels: 2030, 2023
Resistance levels: 2039, 2049
The price is strengthening towards the resistance, the target for the market is the area of 2050. But if the price does not pass through 2040, the market will start to form consolidation 2040-2030
TVC:DXY COMEX:GC1! COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
Regards R. Linda!
GOLD suddenly turned around and slightly decreasedWorld gold prices were relatively stable with spot gold falling 5.3 USD to 2,023.5 USD/ounce. Gold futures were last traded at 2,029.3 USD/ounce, down 3.7 USD compared to yesterday morning. Investors are waiting for US inflation data to get more clarity on the path of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rates this year.
The USD weakened, the US Dollar Index (DXY) which measures greenback fluctuations with 6 major currencies (EUR, JPY, GBP, CAD, SEK, CHF) fell 0.21%, to 102.36.
Gold suffered heavy losses over the past week as traders gradually scaled back speculation that the Fed would start cutting interest rates in March 2024. This idea has sent the dollar soaring, which has also put pressure on bullion prices.
However, the yellow metal has managed to stay above $2,000 an ounce after surpassing that level in early December. Gold prices will also rise by around 10% in 2023.
XAUUSD: Turning bearish if the 1D MA50 breaks.Gold (XAUUSD) stopped its 10 day pullback yesterday on the 1D MA50, which is the level where the short term Channel Up priced the previous HL on December 13th. The 1D timeframe is technically neutral (RSI = 47.836, MACD = 6.750, ADX = 32.595). If the 1D MA50 is crossed though, the trend will turn bearish in a way comparable to the May 17th 2023 bearish crossing. This was the bearish extension after the one year Channel Up peaked on a HH and declined all the way to the 1D MA200 and under.
We expect a similar course to be followed, so if the price crosses under the 1D MA50, we will go short on the long term with one target on the 1D MA200 and the S2 level (TP1 = 1,972.50) and a second on the S3 level (TP2 = 1,928.10).
Notice that a 1D RSI Bearish Divergence has preceeded the May 4th peak. We can see a similar pattern since October 27th.
See how our prior idea has worked:
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GOLD → False breakout leads to counter-trend correctionFOREXCOM:XAUUSD within the descending price channel forms a false break of support after which we see the strengthening, which began yesterday.
On the background of the downtrend the price forms a false breakdown of the level of 2031.8, after that during several hours the price fixes above this level, which forms a bullish position in the market. Within the current counter-trend correction, the price may reach the resistance of 2048 range or trend resistance. There are no important news that can affect the price today, most likely the price will continue its direction to the zone of interest, because above 2049 there is a large enough pool of liquidity. It is too early to talk about the trend change.
Support levels: 2030-2031
Resistance levels: 2039.3, 2049.3
The counter-trend correction may reach the mentioned trend zone. Further we should watch the price reaction to the mentioned resistance area as well as to the fundamental reasons, which can both break the trend and continue it
TVC:DXY COMEX_MINI:MGC1! COMEX:GC1!
Regards R. Linda!
GOLD → The downtrend continues to form FOREXCOM:XAUUSD has been declining on the basis of fundamentals since last week, which is what I was preparing you for. The price makes a false break of resistance and decreases by 1.8%.
Yesterday we analyzed the situation from both fundamental and technical points of view. Gold, as we expected, is declining towards the support. The price is heading towards the lower boundary of the trend, from which a small correction to the resistance may follow. If the fundamental background ( TVC:DXY ) does not change in the next few weeks, the price may test the levels even lower in the future.
Technically, now we expect a correction from the 2023-2020 area to one of the nearest resistances. BUT, if the channel support is broken and the price forms a consolidation below 2023-2020, the decline will start without a pullback, the target in this case will be the area of 2015, 2010, 2000.
Support levels: 2030, 2015
Resistance levels: 2039, 2049
The price may continue to be inside the descending channel, having formed a bounce from support to resistance. Technically and fundamentally, the price is preparing for a decline.
Regards R. Linda!
XAUUSD Target hit, approaching bottom of Channel Up and 1D MA50.Gold (XAUUSD) followed the Channel Up 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) rejection pattern and as per our last week's idea (January 04, see chart below), it hit today our 2020 Target:
The price is now only a few pips away from hitting the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) which has been untouched since October 13 2023 and near which both previous Higher Lows on the Channel's bottom (December 13 2023 and November 12 2023) where priced.
As a result that would be a buy opportunity with a tolerance extension as low as 2003, which would represent a -4.08% from the top, symmetrical to both previous two Bearish Legs. As long as the Channel Up Higher Lows trend-line holds, we will stay bullish, targeting the 4H MA50 at 2040. If the bottom trend-line breaks, we will take the relatively small loss and open a sell instead, targeting Support 1 at 1972.50. The 1D MA20 (yellow trend-line) is the final supporting trend-line before Gold gets a confirmed bearish reversal on the long-term horizon.
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GOLD → Uncertain market. What should we expect?FOREXCOM:XAUUSD is forming a global range of 2070 - 1810. In a neutral market, the price may head down from the resistance, but we have an unstable fundamental environment.
The market closes the second half of the new week in 2023 in a phase of uncertainty. The price is standing still. After receiving the news, the market quickly buys back the decline or sells off the rise, thus bringing the price back to the current range of 2050 - 2040.
Wednesday through Friday the market receives bullish news for the US market, which technically should drop the price of gold. But the market is already overheated by the Fed's manipulation and is apparently getting ready for further rate cuts, which the US regulators may start in early spring . In this case, the TVC:DXY will begin to give up its positions, which will technically strengthen the forex market and including gold, silver and the cryptocurrency market.
On the high timeframe ( 1 week ) we see the strength of buying power in the gold market. There is a reason for everything: fundamentals, geopolitics, problems in the US and European market, high interest in the metal from the central banks of many countries, which very actively continue to buy the metal.
Technically, the price may test 0.382, 0.5, 0.618 fibo by spring before rising further.
The positive sentiment is indicated by frequent resistance retests . Every next retest makes this zone lose strength, which technically brings us closer to the formation of a new bullish range after breaking the 2050-2075 zone.
There is not much news in the coming week, important data may be released in the second half. The market may start the new trading week by continuing to forge a sideways range between 2050 - 2040 . But, a breakout of one of the mentioned boundaries followed by price consolidation above or below this level will form momentum towards the mentioned zones.
Support levels: 2040, 2030, 2015
Resistance levels: 2050, 2058, 2069, 2075
The market may be temporarily affected by the bullish news for the US market from last Friday. Gold may start to decline to 2040 and retest 2030 as we saw sell-offs on Friday after stabilization. BUT! At the moment the market is unstable amidst uncertain potential. Proceed from these levels and your trading strategies.
Regards R. Linda!
GOLD dropped sharply in the first session of the weekForecasting this week's gold price trend, Kitco News' latest weekly gold survey shows that 50% of retail investors participating in online polls on Main Street expect gold prices to increase this week. This and the rest forecast that the price will go in the opposite direction. Retail investors expect gold prices to trade around $2,049/ounce this week.
Meanwhile, the majority of market analysts have an optimistic view on the yellow metal in the short term with 66% of experts participating in the survey predicting gold prices will increase.
Walsh Trading's Co-Head of Commercial Hedging Sean Lusk is optimistic about gold, saying the precious metal remains supported by concerns surrounding conflict in the Middle East and seasonal factors. Lusk predicts that during the seasonal growth period from now until Valentine's Day, gold prices will reach 2,175 USD/ounce.
GOLD → Will NFP weaken gold? What should we expect?FOREXCOM:XAUUSD is consolidating under a strong resistance level. Yesterday the gold market received negative fundamental data, in all likelihood, which will also affect NFP ( TVC:DXY )
On the high timeframe we see the formation of a resistance zone formed by several highs and levels. At the moment the focus is on the 2050 level. After a false breakdown and on the news on Thursday, a bearish consolidation is forming under the level to continue the decline. Based on the previous data, we have a high chance of seeing a negative NFP for gold. In that case, the price may head downwards. But, the problem with news is that it is unpredictable, The opposite of the expected NFP can strengthen the gold. Wait for the actual data.
On H1, there is a possible resistance retest before further decline. Moving averages previously formed a trend change signal and now indicate a downtrend.
Support levels: 2038.9, 2031, 2015
Resistance levels: 2049.3, 2058.3
Technically and fundamentally, the price is expected to decline towards the mentioned targets. But if the actual news data will be opposite to the expected ones, the market may behave unpredictably.
Regards R. Linda!
🥇 GOLD - Consolidation after false resistance breakdown GOLD is forming a bearish market sentiment after the false breakdown of 2047. Apparently, the market is forming a negative fundamental background and is preparing to make new lows. Technically, the bears continue to pressure the gold price and form a strong consolidation below the strong resistance
Prerequisites for further decline:
1) NFP may have a negative impact on the gold price
2) Yesterday formed a negative fundamental background
3) Support retest
4) Price consolidation under the strong level of 2047.9
GOLD → Correction phase, expect a fall, but news... FOREXCOM:XAUUSD is declining by 1.3% on Wednesday, the reason may be the fundamental nuances of the Fed, which is still trying to keep the market under control, hinting at both lowering the interest rates and raising them, to which the market reacts by strengthening the dollar.
Today at 13:15 - 14:45 important news is published, which reflects both the situation with inflation and the position of the FED and FOMC. Fundamentally, analysts expect bullish data, which could technically strengthen the TVC:DXY , which in turn will weaken gold. Still, it is worth waiting for actual data that can provide insight into the medium-term outlook.
On the chart we see the formation of a technical correction on the background of a bullish trend. The price is testing the resistance of 2050, it is possible that before the news the price may go higher and test 2058, 2065 before falling further. But, if the actual fundamental data is worse than expected, it could strengthen gold towards the current channel resistance.
Support levels: 2042, 2037, 2033, 2030
Resistance levels: 2049.3, 2050, 2058, 2065
The news will give us insight into the medium-term outlook. Bullish news for the dollar will weaken gold and the price will continue the local downtrend. Bearish news for the dollar will strengthen gold and may reestablish the bullish trend
Regards R. Linda!
XAUUSD Bear Flag on 4H.Gold (XAUUSD) eventually did get rejected on the 0.618 Fibonacci level as per our last week analysis (see chart below):
This is so far consistent with all previous All Time Highs since August 2020 and our long-term target remains 1975. On the shorter term though we see a quick sell opportunity following today's bounce after the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) break-out, as it is consistent with all such break-outs (red ellipses) within the 2-month Channel Up.
Every Bearish Leg of this Channel Up declined by more than -4.00% but on our short-term horizon we will settle for a 2020 target, which will be a 1D MA50 (red trend-line) test. See also how consistent the 4H MACD sequences are.
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Gold likely to continue shining in 2024For over two years of publishing on TradingView, we have maintained a bullish stance on gold, which has been marching higher in tandem with our expectations. In 2024, our outlook remains unchanged, and we expect it to continue performing well amid the persistence of institutional interest, global economic slowdown, and geopolitical tensions. However, we also recognize a potential threat to its well-being, represented by the stock market weakness. This thesis is built upon the fact that gold has been climbing higher alongside stock market indices for several months, showing a positive correlation. Furthermore, we have seen a perfect example in 2022, when the stock market selloff forced investors to sell gold in order to cover losses elsewhere; we expect the same thing to happen in the case of prolonged weakness in market indices. Nonetheless, we do not have plans to sell our holdings; instead, we plan to accumulate more (if the opportunity arises). With that said, our long-term price target for gold stays at $2,300.
Illustration 1.01
The image above shows the daily chart of XAUUSD and simple support/resistance levels derived from peaks and troughs.
Technical analysis
Daily = Bullish
Weekly = Bullish
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
GOLD → Correction Phase. How long will it last?FOREXCOM:XAUUSD is weakening on the background of growing TVC:DXY . At the moment, fundamental and technical indicators are diverging and the market is trying to collect maximum liquidity before further growth.
On D1 we see the formation of a false breakdown of resistance 2075. The market is in global consolidation, but locally we have a downtrend forming.
Technically, the price may test the local trend support, while the dollar seeks to test the resistance.
Within the downtrend range, gold may bounce from support to resistance. This range formation is likely to continue until the end of the week.
Support levels: 2048, 2030, 2010
Resistance levels: 2058, 2069, 2075
Fundamentally, the dollar has a weak support and should fall. But on the background of low market volumes, the market maker is collecting liquidity. It is likely that the gold may test the far support levels before rising further. Hence, the local bearish correction formation may continue until 2009 in the medium term.
Regards R. Linda!
XAUUSD POSSIBLE 15 PIPS TRADE Hello guys in my opinion gold global direction is still unclear at the moment .
but for today we can see this possible scenario happen its very likely that we see a drop towards 2050s.
the price reached a resistance level and formed a double top broke and retested the neckline but in the 1h we kind of have an invertd hs forming . i would look for more comfirmation before taking this trade
happy new year guys
XAUUSD: Sell reversal inside the Channel Up.Gold has technically turned neutral on the 4H time-frame (RSI = 47.613, MACD = 2.720, ADX = 30.603) but remains bullish on 1D as it has started the bearish leg of the two month Channel Up. The 4H MA50 broke today for the first time since December 13th and that basically validates this short-term correction. Our target is the S1 level (TP = 2,016) which will make an ideal test of the 1D MA50.
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GOLD → The bullish potential is back. December trap FOREXCOM:XAUUSD is starting to catch up with the bullish potential, which was forged at the end of 2023, when we received negative news for $.
On D1 we see gold rising on the back of a weakening TVC:DXY . The price breaks through the important and historical resistance 2069 - 2070. A retest and consolidation of price above the level is forming. A price consolidation this week above this level will confirm the intention of the bull market. In this case, we may see a potential target in the form of: 2085, 2100 and even 2150.
On H1, the price is updating the local support (false breakout) on the background of bullish news for gold. And this is a logical scenario before further growth. I warned you that before the growth, even on good news, the price can go down.
Now it is important for us to see the price consolidation above the mentioned liquidity area.
Support levels: 2075, 2070, 2069
Resistance levels: 2079, 2082, 2088, 2100
I expect growth after the price fixation above the mentioned support area.
Regards R. Linda!
XAUUSD Bearish correction inside the Channel UpGold / XAUUSD has started the bearish wave, the 3rd one inside the Channel Up pattern that started on October 13th.
So far it is holding the last technical support leve, the 4hour MA50 but once crossed, the pattern has shown that a decline always starts that aims the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level.
Sell and target 2017.50.
Previous chart:
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GOLD → How will the news affect the price?FOREXCOM:XAUUSD is forming a strong bullish trend, but there are some preconditions on the chart, which in tandem with the news can form an unexpected scenario.
Today is the last strong news of the year. Namely, at 13:30 GMT Initial Jobless Claims will be published. Overall, analysts are expecting 210K relative to the previous 205K. This is bad data. But a big role is played by the actual data relative to the expected data.
If the data will be higher than expected 210K, the dollar may break the local support and continue its decline, which will strengthen the gold.
If the data will be lower than expected 210K, then gold will catch a bearish wave on the back of dollar strength.
Technically, we have a bullish trend, with strong support and liquidity area forming in the 2075 - 2069 area.
On positive news for XAU the price may test this area and after a false breakdown head upwards.
But negative news for XAU will break this area and could send the gold price to 2050 - 2047.
Support levels: 2075, 2069.3, rising line
Resistance levels: 2080, 2088, 2100.
Technically, gold is ready to continue to grow and this will continue in the medium and long term, but locally, the news can unpredictably affect the price
COMEX:GC1! COMEX_MINI:MGC1! TVC:DXY
Regards R. Linda!