Don't expect seasonality to save gold's baconWe're at that time of the year that gold tends to outperform. Yet with bigger drivers behind the wheel, I doubt that gold's 5% rebound will extend through to December. In fact, I'm now looking for short entries. Using stats from seasonality, ETF flows and market positioning, I outline my base for bears before highlighting key levels for them to consider.
MS.
GC1! (Gold Futures)
GOLD → A break of 2600 will make buyers panicFX:XAUUSD is returning to the sell-off phase due to the change of fundamental background. Buyers are unwinding their positions and the price is entering the sell-off zone
The main reason for the fall is the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. The first rumors appeared early Monday morning and the market reacted accordingly. Everyone is still waiting for the actual confirmation of the rumors.
Also Trump is beginning to hint at increased tariffs on goods from Canada, Mexico and China. Active actions will start in January, after the inauguration of the new US president.
But, the risks are still high due to the escalated conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
Technically, gold is returning to the channel, marking a strong resistance at 2632 and 2620. (a retest of the zone is possible before a further fall).
Resistance levels: 2632, 2620
Support levels: 2605
A price consolidation below 2620 or below 2605 will strengthen the sell-off phase. The fundamental background is weak, which increases the pressure of bears. In the mid-term, I expect the decline to continue after the breakdown of 2605-2600
Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ FX:XAUUSD ;)
Regards R. Linda!
The ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah is the main pressureOn the Asian market on Tuesday (November 26), OANDA:XAUUSD Spot trading is still under pressure after yesterday's terrible plunge. Gold price is currently around 2,629 USD/ounce.
Hopes for a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah are turning the gold price outlook bearish, with gold prices set to test $2,600 an ounce.
On Monday, gold prices fell more than 3% on reports that Israel and Hezbollah were close to reaching a ceasefire agreement and that Trump nominated Bessant as US Treasury Secretary, reducing its appeal as a haven. Safe for gold.
Two senior Israeli officials and two US officials told Axios that Israel and Lebanon are close to reaching a ceasefire agreement to end the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, US-based Axios reported on Monday.
According to the Israeli ambassador to the US, a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah is very close. Authorities are expected to announce a 60-day ceasefire today (Tuesday).
Previously, gold prices increased more than 6% last week, due to escalating Russia-Ukraine tensions.
Britain's Reuters also reported today that US President Joe Biden and French President Emmanuel Macron are expected to soon announce a ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel.
According to Reuters, the French presidential palace announced that discussions on a ceasefire had made significant progress.
In Jerusalem, a senior Israeli official said the Israeli cabinet would meet today (Tuesday) local time to approve a ceasefire agreement with Hezbollah.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
After yesterday's terrible price drop, gold is trying to recover from its original price point of 2,600 USD.
However, the recovery also encountered a lower limit from the 0.618% Fibonacci retracement level, followed by horizontal resistance at 2,644USD.
Technically, gold has conditions for a downtrend, with the price channel as the main trend, pressure from EMA21 along with the RSI pointing down, bringing activity below the 50 level.
In the short term, if gold fails to hold above $2,600, a new bearish cycle could be opened with a target level of around $2,538 once $2,600 is broken below. However, currently gold still has the ability to recover with a resistance target of around 2,634 USD in the short term, more than 2,644 USD.
During the day, the technical outlook leans to the downside with the following recovery levels.
Support: 2,606 – 2,600USD
Resistance: 2,634 – 2,644USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2661 - 2659⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2665
→Take Profit 1 2654
↨
→Take Profit 2 2649
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2579 - 2581⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2575
→Take Profit 1 2586
↨
→Take Profit 2 2591
Gold plunges as Trump 'trumps' seasonalsLast week I revealed in a video of my scepticism gold would tracks its seasonality into December , given its outperformance earlier in the year and the hunch that Trump 2.0 would likely to overshadow typical flows. And Trump's US Treasury Secretary cabinet pick has done just that.
Monday's price action should serve as a stark reminder that seasonality has taken a back seat with its prominent bearish engulfing day and most bearish candle in four years. And there could be further losses ahead.
The daily chart shows the drop from its all-time high (ATH) came in three waves, which suggests it is the beginning of a larger ABC retracement. Assuming Monday's engulfing candle was the end of wave B, a 100% projection (wave equality) could see gold fall to ~2460.
note that the daily low found support around a high-volume node (HVN) and weekly S1 pivot point. A bullish divergence is also forming on the 1-hour RSI (2) to suggest a bounce.
Bears could seek to fade into retracement within Monday's range to try and increase the reward to risk ratio.
MS
XAUUSD testing the 4H MA50. Entered technical buy zone.Gold (XAUUSD) gave us a strong bottom buy signal on our last analysis (November 18, see chart below) right after it touched the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) for the first time in 9 months (since February 15 2024):
That was an ideal technical Higher Low for the long-term Channel Up and the rally that followed confirmed it. Since the Friday top however it got a heavy rejection and today is back on the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line). That is also the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, so it is gradually entering the 0.618 - 0.5 Fib Buy Zone.
On top of that, we can see that throughout this Channel Up pattern, every break below the 4H MA50 (during Bullish Leg) was received with a massive bullish reversal. The 4H RSI Higher Lows trend-line can determine the approximate max extension of the price.
In any event, this is a strong short-term buy opportunity. We keep our 2790 Target intact.
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GOLD → An unexpected shakeup. What's next? 2700 or 2600?FX:XAUUSD closed the session perfectly on Friday, hinting that it was preparing to move up to conquer the highs. But Monday morning's news shook up the market, eliminating buyers. What happened and what to expect?
Gold's decline in the Asian session was due to news from the Middle East, with Israel tentatively approving a ceasefire agreement with Hezbollah in Lebanon.
But, on the other hand - the escalation of the conflict in Eastern Europe, where the situation has become more complicated to some critical limits over the past few weeks. This is a two-edged sword.
The market will react to any news coming from the two regions. No economic news is expected on Monday.
Technically, the focus is on the sideways range of 2731 - 2660 and internal levels, among which the price may look for support....
Resistance levels: 2673, 2689, 2731
Support levels: 2660, 2643
If the price consolidates above 2673, then we should wait for a retest of 2689 (0.5 fibo). If the bulls continue to press the market, the gold may test 2721.
But if the bears hold 0.5-0.7 fibo and retest 2660, then we should wait for a correction to the zones of interest and liquidity before a possible pullback
Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ FX:XAUUSD ;)
Regards R. Linda!
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Nov 25 - Nov 29]Last week, gold prices continuously recovered from 2,564 USD/oz to 2,716 USD/oz.
The reason why gold prices increased sharply this week is because investors are concerned that the war between Russia and Ukraine will take a more serious turn when President Biden allows Ukraine to use long-range ATACMS missiles to fire into Russian territory to in response to Russia's deployment of North Korean troops in the Russia-Ukraine war. Besides, Mr. Biden seems to want to make his mark in the Russia-Ukraine war when he only has about 2 months left in power before handing it over to Mr. Donald Trump. In addition, according to many experts, this move by Mr. Biden may complicate the war between Russia and Ukraine, making it difficult for Mr. Donald Trump to end the hostilities as easily as he announced during the campaign. elect US President...
Perhaps most alarming is the nuclear doctrine that Russia emphasizes. It considers any attack by a non-nuclear country supported by a nuclear power to be a joint attack. This means that Ukraine's use of ATACMS missiles also means that the US is directly involved in attacking Russia, making the war between Russia and Ukraine no longer a war between these two countries, but could potentially lead to a world war. War III.
However, according to many experts, the US may only provide a limited number of missiles to Ukraine, fearing the dire consequences of this move. Therefore, the war between Russia and Ukraine is unlikely to drag many other countries, especially NATO member countries, into the war. Furthermore, with only 2 months left until Mr. Trump takes office as President of the United States, the war between Russia and Ukraine will soon subside.
The need for refuge in gold may continue to increase in the short term as Russia and the US are still taking tough stances in the Russia-Ukraine war. Therefore, next week's gold price may continue to rise even higher.
This week, the US announced two important indicators: third quarter GDP and personal consumption expenditure index (PCE) - an important inflation measure of the FED. If Q3 GDP declines and PCE increases, it will be difficult for the FED to resist further reducing interest rates, further supporting the rise in gold prices next week. On the contrary, if GDP increases and PCE decreases, the FED will have more motivation to delay cutting interest rates, causing gold prices next week to be negatively affected.
📌From a technical perspective, on the H4 chart, a head and shoulders pattern is forming, but a few more up/down cycles are needed to confirm. Specifically, if the gold price has a correction phase to around the support level of 2640, then bounces back to break the resistance level of 2711, then it can be expected that the price will continue to maintain its upward momentum above the 2790 threshold. In case of support area If 2600 is broken, it could trigger another sell-off, causing gold prices to fall to around 2500.
Notable technical levels are listed below.
Support: 2,684 – 2,697USD
Resistance: 2,760 – 2,750 – 2,732USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2791 - 2789⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2795
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2639 - 2641⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2635
Weekly Forex Forecast Nov. 25-28th: GOLD Resumes Bullish Trend.After three bearish Weekly candles, safehaven seekers pushed the prices past the previous weekly high with a strong close. Will this continue next week? I suspect it will. The Monthly and Weekly TFs show bullishness, and indicate the bearishness was short term.
That said, I am prepared to sell if the entry function presents itself at the current -FVG price is contacting. This price level is in the premium of the trading range, making it a great area to look for a short. But it is counter-trend, so a reasonable profit target is in order.
Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week.
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I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
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Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
GOLD Prices Surge: Analyzing the Market's Rebound TrendsGold prices continued their upward trend in Asian trading on Tuesday, following a rebound from a key demand zone where retailers had been caught off guard by a previous downward trend. This resurgence has recovered approximately half of last week's losses. Market participants are now closely monitoring upcoming speeches from officials at the US Federal Reserve, as well as ongoing geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine.
Additionally, expectations of renewed stimulus measures from China are contributing to a positive sentiment surrounding gold. As the world's largest consumer of the precious metal, any economic support initiatives from Chinese authorities could bolster demand and further enhance gold's appeal. However, traders remain cautious about whether gold can sustain its recovery, as they await clearer signals regarding the Fed's interest rate policy from the central bank.
Previous Forecast:
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GOLD → Why is the metal rising? A chance to upgrade ATH to 2800?FX:XAUUSD rallies and seeks to renew the local maximum. The fundamental background is changing in favor of the metal, to which aggressive buyers are running...
Gold is not reacting to the dollar rally and hawkish Fed rate statements. Markets now rate the probability of a 0.25% Fed rate cut in December at 51%, up from 84% a week ago.
The reason for the metal's rally is paramount to the escalating conflict in Eastern Europe. The US Democrats have untied the hands Ukraine, which has caused Russia to change its nuclear doctrine and lower its threshold for retaliatory decisions. The conflict, fundamentally, is taking a more serious side.
Gold, as a hedge asset in times of crisis, is soaking up investor money and feeling strong buyer support
Technically, we are getting a high probability that the metal can update ATH to 2800-2850.
Resistance levels: 2710, 2731, 2750
Support levels: 2689, 2680, 2674
There is strong resistance ahead, which may trigger a correction to the nearest liquidity zones, but we are not talking about reversals. The correction may end quickly and the price will go into the bull run phase again. Medium-term targets are 2731-2750
Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ FX:XAUUSD ;)
Regards R. Linda!
The geopolitical situation is hotter in many placesIn early trading on Asian markets on Thursday (November 21), OANDA:XAUUSD Spot delivery suddenly increased rapidly in the short term and gold prices are currently approaching the 2,660 USD/ounce mark, threatening the trend from the price channel.
Growing concerns about the Russia-Ukraine conflict, along with growing uncertainty in global markets, have supported gold's strong recovery this week.
On Wednesday, as tensions between Russia and Ukraine escalated, leading to increased geopolitical unrest, investors sought the safety of gold, seen as a hedge against the risks of conflict instability.
In response to Ukraine's first long-range missile attack on Russian territory, Russian President Vladimir Putin revised the nuclear weapons guidelines to lower the threshold for nuclear retaliation in response to an attack. series of conventional attacks, leading to increased geopolitical tensions.
In addition to the situation between Russia and Ukraine, the tense situation in the Middle East is also a factor supporting gold prices.
According to the official website of the United Nations and CNN, on November 20 local time, the United Nations Security Council voted on a ceasefire resolution in Gaza proposed by 10 non-permanent members.
The resolution was not passed due to the United States' veto. The remaining 14 countries in the Security Council voted in favor.
The resolution "demands that all parties immediately, unconditionally and permanently cease fire and reiterates their demand for the immediate and unconditional release of all detainees."
In addition, the resolution further emphasizes the role of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) as the backbone of humanitarian relief operations in Gaza.
Additional information, on November 20 local time, the Israeli army attacked a house in the Sheikh Radwan neighborhood, north of Gaza City, killing 66 people and injuring dozens of others.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
Gold is currently operating in a very important position for an uptrend from the price channel with price activity attempting to move above the upper edge of the price channel.
On the other hand, the Relative Strength Index is also sitting right in the middle of the 50 level, if it breaks above this level it will be a bullish signal.
Looking ahead, technically gold is still below resistance levels, from the price channel to EMA21 and the Relative Strength Index. So, it is not yet eligible for a bullish cycle. As long as gold remains below EMA21, it is not yet technically in a bullish position.
During the day, with the current operating position, gold is still in an upward trend and notable points will be listed as follows.
Support: 2,640USD
Resistance: 2,668 – 2,684USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2676 - 2674⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2680
→Take Profit 1 2669
↨
→Take Profit 2 2664
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2599 - 2601⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2595
→Take Profit 1 2606
↨
→Take Profit 2 2611
GOLD is headed for a 5th day of increaseOANDA:XAUUSD rose for a fourth straight day and is headed for a fifth day of gains on Friday (November 22) as safe-haven demand picks up while traders assess the prospect of further policy easing by the Federal Reserve. Federal Reserve and increasingly escalating geopolitical risks.
Gold prices recovered above $2,680 and were on track for their best weekly performance since April as the war between Russia and Ukraine escalated.
Ukraine says Russia has launched a "new" ballistic missile toward the city of Dnipro, sending a worrying signal to Western supporters of Kiev. Escalating geopolitical tensions often push investors toward safe-haven assets like gold.
When the United States vetoed the United Nations ceasefire resolution in Gaza, relations between Russia and Ukraine became tense again, ensuring gold's long-term appeal.
Investors have flocked to safe-haven assets during the global crisis and gold prices have hit multiple record highs since conflict in the Middle East erupted last October.
Since the beginning of this year, gold prices have risen nearly 30%, supported by solid central bank gold purchases, growing safe-haven demand and a cycle of interest rate cuts by the Reserve Federal.
Although the recovery of the US Dollar put pressure on gold prices, safe-haven demand helped gold prices offset this pressure. A stronger US Dollar often makes goods priced in Dollars more expensive and less attractive.
Spot gold prices rose 4% this week, their best gain since April, recovering from their biggest weekly drop in more than three years last week. Gold's decline was fueled by a rise in the US Dollar fueled by Trump's victory in the race for the White House.
Investors are also focusing on several Fed officials expected to speak this week. Market expectations for a December rate cut have weakened significantly, with the probability now at 59.4%, much lower than 82.5% a week ago.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold broke out of the downtrend from the price channel and initially achieved the conditions for a new bullish cycle to be formed with a move above the EMA21 level.
In addition, the Relative Strength Index is also pointing up to surpass 50, which is considered a signal for price increases in the near future.
In the immediate future, gold will need to test and surpass the original price level of 2,700 USD. Normally, the original price levels are considered resistance or support depending on price position conditions. If gold surpasses 2,700 USD and maintains stability above the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level, it will be able to continue to increase by more than 30 Dollars to reach the 0.236% Fibonacci level.
Currently, gold has the conditions for a bullish cycle, so technically, combined with the escalating geopolitical risk of market shock, the trend of gold is leaning more towards the possibility of price increases.
Notable technical points will be listed as follows.
Support: 2,684 - 2,668USD
Resistance: 2,697 - 2,700 - 2,732USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2711 - 2709⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2715
→Take Profit 1 2704
↨
→Take Profit 2 2699
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2639 - 2641⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2635
→Take Profit 1 2646
↨
→Take Profit 2 2651
XAUUSD Is a quick pull back justified here?Gold / XAUUSD is on a strong short term Channel Up that reached today the 4hour MA200.
This is the final Resistance before further upside is confirmed to a new All Time High.
Having completed a +5.40% rise, this is a technical point where all 3 previous Channel's pulled back to the 0.382 Fibonacci.
Sell and target 2630 (0.382 Fib and possible contact with the 4hour MA50).
Previous chart:
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GOLD: Prices Climb as Geopolitical Risks Prompt Buyer InterestGold prices are attracting buyers as they trade around $2,586.50 in early Monday trading. However, traders are scaling back their expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, which is putting downward pressure on the yellow metal.
Despite this, geopolitical uncertainties could drive the price of gold higher, as it is often viewed as a safe-haven asset during tumultuous times. After a six-day losing streak, gold showed signs of recovery during the early Asian trading hours on Monday.
Nevertheless, the strength of the U.S. Dollar (USD) may limit the upward potential for gold. The recent surge in the Greenback, spurred by Donald Trump's election victory, could create additional selling pressure on gold priced in USD. Enhanced expectations for inflation in the coming year, driven by Trump's policies, have led to a diminished outlook for future rate cuts.
As we continue to analyze the Dollar Index (DXY), there may be signs of a retracement in the USD, which could positively impact gold's value. Investors will be keenly watching these developments as they unfold.
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GOLD → The fundamental backdrop is changing, as are the targets$FX:XAUSUD breaks local trend and makes sellers nervous. The fundamental background is changing despite the growth of the dollar, which is generally positive for gold as a safe asset in times of crisis
The dollar rallied strongly on Wednesday as traders increased optimism on Trump's dealings, digesting hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve. Despite the hawkish shift in Fed expectations and the optimism of the overall market syuttaion on the dollar, the gold price held up and benefited from escalating geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine.
Against the backdrop of the escalating Russia-Ukraine conflict, the gold price is likely to be firm, but upcoming Fed comments could strengthen sellers.
Technically, gold has all chances to test the previously broken channel boundary, but based on the technical and fundamentals, we can conclude that further growth may continue.
Resistance levels: 2665, 2686, 2700
Support levels: 2643, 2627
The price is heading towards the zone of liquidity and interest, from which a correction may be formed, after which the market may resume the growth of gold, as the interest to the metal as a hedge asset has returned.
Medium-term targets could be 2700-2750
Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ FX:XAUUSD ;)
Regards R. Linda!
Ukraine is dangerous, GOLD receives support from risksOn Wednesday (November 20) on the Asian market, spot gold continued to increase in the short term. Gold price has just retested the mark of 2,640 USD/ounce, increasing sharply to reach nearly 10 USD during the day.
Growing concerns about the Russia-Ukraine crisis have caused gold prices to rise further. It is worth noting that geopolitical tensions flared up again due to information that the Biden administration authorized Ukraine to use US-made weapons to attack Russian territory last weekend.
Geopolitical tensions, economic risks and a low interest rate environment have enhanced the appeal of gold.
Bloomberg of the US commented that as the conflict entered its 1,000th day, Ukraine used its newly acquired long-range missile capabilities to attack a military base on Russian territory.
Moscow has warned against such actions and stepped up threats of nuclear responses to conventional attacks.
Russia's war in Ukraine has entered a dangerous new chapter
On Tuesday local time, Ukrainian forces used the US Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) for the first time to attack a facility in Russia's Bryansk Oblast.
The Russian Ministry of Defense confirmed that Ukraine used missiles from the US military's Tactical Missile System to attack Russia and that Russia's anti-missile system shot down 5 out of 6 missiles.
On Tuesday local time, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree approving a new version of Russia's basic national policy on nuclear deterrence, which took effect from the date of signing.
The new version of the policy expands the range of countries and military alliances with which Russia can exercise nuclear deterrence, and proposes to consider "aggression against Russia by any non-nuclear state with the participation or support of nuclear states" is a "joint attack". against Russia. (Directly aimed at America)
Bloomberg noted that two developments on Tuesday worried investors, causing investors to rush into safe-haven assets, especially gold.
On the daily chart, gold tested the 0.618% Fibonacci retracement level at $2,640, which is an important technical point for the downtrend that readers should pay attention to through the price channel.
Currently, gold still has conditions to decrease in price with the main trend from the price channel and the main pressure from EMA21 still maintained. On the other hand, the Relative Strength Index is also creating a curve as it approaches the 50 level, which shows that buying is slowing down.
Technically, gold still has a more bearish outlook. However, if it breaks the price channel and rises above the EMA21 level, a new uptrend could open.
During the day, the bearish technical outlook still prevails and the notable points are listed below.
Support: 2,605 – 2,600USD
Resistance: 2,640 – 2,668USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2653 - 2651⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2657
→Take Profit 1 2646
↨
→Take Profit 2 2641
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2589 - 2591⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2585
→Take Profit 1 2596
↨
→Take Profit 2 2601
GOLD & SILVER Attempt To Break Higher - Moving Into EEP #3Gold and Silver attempt to break upward, moving away from the larger EPP Phase #2 (consolidation/FLAGGING) setup.
If my research is correct, we'll see a very strong rally setting up in Gold/Silver over the next 2-4+ hours - likely see GOLD rallying up to $2720+ and SILVER rallying up to $32.50-$33.
Get ready. This could be a very strong rally phase targeting new all-time highs over the next 15+ days.
Get Some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
GOLD → Market confirms downtrendFX:XAUUSD is testing resistance of a key descending channel. Bears continue to resist based on important fundamental aspects of the global economy
Fears of further geopolitical escalation between Russia and Ukraine are likely to subside a bit. In addition, the Fed speech will help determine the U.S. central bank's future path on interest rates. Attention is focused on the December rate meeting....
Technically, the gold confirms the downtrend channel, so we have a key trend to follow in our trading decisions.
A false breakdown of the local resistance at 2627 is forming. Consolidation of the price below this zone may provoke further decline
Resistance levels: 2627, 2643
Support levels: 2694, 2560
Another resistance retest is possible. It will be possible to talk about buying after the price will be able to break 2643 and consolidate above this zone (additional scenario). But in priority I consider further decline from 2627 or from the channel resistance
Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ FX:XAUUSD ;)
Regards R. Linda!
GOLD → Are the bears in doubt? Resistance aheadFX:XAUUSD strengthens to 2625, jeopardizing the local downtrend. Fundamentally, the situation is complicated, as well as technically...
The metal price is actively influenced by the escalated geopolitical situation between Russia and Ukraine. The market is also watching the Middle East, as despite the reduced news flow, the situation is still tense. In addition, expectations of additional stimulus measures from China also favor the growth of prices for this metal. It is still unclear whether gold will be able to hold on to the bullish momentum as the price is approaching strong resistance and traders are cautious as they await new signals on the Fed's interest rate outlook.
Technically, as the price is still within the boundaries of the local descending channel, it is worth considering selling from strong zones and levels. The situation will change when the price breaks (it is not a fact) the channel resistance...
Resistance levels: 2626, 2643
Support levels: 2604, 2590
Most likely, the market seeks to test the resistance, relative to which a stalemate situation is forming due to the mixed fundamental background.
A false break of 2643-2626 will strengthen the selling and bring us back to the downside. But an unexpected resistance breakout will bring back the buyers' motivation
Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ FX:XAUUSD ;)
Regards R. Linda!
GOLD continues to be supported by BidenOANDA:XAUUSD rallied sharply towards a second day of gains after six consecutive days of decline as the dollar's price momentum slowed and growing uncertainty over conflicts in Russia and Ukraine sparked safe-haven demand.
As of the time of writing, spot gold has increased continuously the previous trading day to 2,622 USD/ounce, escaping the lowest level in 2 months last Thursday.
OANDA:XAUUSD considered a safe investment in times of economic and geopolitical uncertainty, suffered its biggest weekly decline in more than three years last week because of Trump's tariff-leaning policy. Trump's nomination is seen as a potential cause of inflation, which could cause the Federal Reserve to slow down on interest rate cuts.
Recent US support for Ukraine has increased tensions and affected safe-haven assets
Part of the reason is that US President Biden announced that he will provide long-range missiles to Ukraine so that the country can attack deeper into Russian territory. This will make the war much more complicated, it should be seen as a step closer to direct confrontation between Russia and the US.
Previously, Reuters reported that US President Joe Biden's administration on Sunday allowed Ukraine to use US-made weapons to attack deep into Russian territory, a major reversal of Washington's policy. about the conflict between Ukraine and Russia.
Sources said Ukraine plans to launch its first long-range strike in the coming days but declined to reveal details due to security concerns about the operation.
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut interest rates for a third time in December, although recent data suggests inflation's recovery toward its 2% target has stalled. About seven Fed officials will speak this week.
Rising interest rates could put further pressure on gold by making non-yielding assets like gold less attractive.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
Although gold has recovered to break the falling price channel in the short term, in the medium term it still tends to lean towards the downside with the price channel as the trend and the main pressure from the EMA21 level.
On the other hand, the uptrend RSI is also close to reaching the 50 level. The 50 level is considered a resistance or support point depending on the condition of the RSI above or below this level.
However, gold may still increase a bit more with the 2,640USD position sent to readers in yesterday's publication, this is the position of the 0.618% Fibonacci retracement level.
As long as gold remains within the price channel and below the EMA21 level, the technical outlook is tilted to the downside, and the day's highlights are listed below.
Support: 2,600 – 2,588USD
Resistance: 2,640USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2647 - 2645⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2651
→Take Profit 1 2640
↨
→Take Profit 2 2635
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2589 - 2591⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2585
→Take Profit 1 2596
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→Take Profit 2 2601
Gold price suddenly reversed and increasedOANDA:XAUUSD surged after the US dollar paused its rally and Russia-Ukraine tensions escalated. Spot gold ended the trading session on November 18 up $48 to $2,611/ounce, ending a six-session losing streak and escaping a two-month low.
Sellers held back as US President Joe Biden authorized Ukraine to use long-range weapons supplied by the United States to strike deep into Russian territory. This was clearly a major driver of strong safe-haven demand, pushing gold prices higher.
This move not only marked a turning point in the gold market but also signaled that investors were looking for opportunities amid increasingly tense geopolitical conditions.
However, in the medium and long term, we still think sellers still have the upper hand technically!