The short-term has already made money!Now continue scalping.
Enter the market with long orders, target 1968.
Pay attention to the support level below 1958! ! !
GC1! (Gold Futures)
Gold is giving up some of its October 2023 gainsIn tandem with our expectations, we saw gold give up some of its gains after an impressive rally last month. Currently, it trades near $1,938 per troy ounce. Although we remain bullish in the long term, we are still unconvinced about a straight path higher in the short term/medium term. In fact, we believe gold has a chance of continuing lower, especially if the stock market starts weakening again. This view is also supported by technical indicators like RSI, Stochastic, and MACD on the daily chart, which are growing increasingly bearish. Consequently, we would not be surprised if gold dived below $1,920 and potentially tested an important psychological support at $1,900.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of XAUUSD and simple support/resistance levels derived from particular peaks and troughs.
Technical analysis
Daily = Slightly bearish
Weekly = Neutral
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
GOLD | After a week of falling pricesOANDA:XAUUSD had a tough week and ended at a new three-week low as investors moved away from safe-haven assets and into more risk-on markets. Higher bond yields also pressured the precious metal which is currently testing a series of technical levels.
The US dollar had a confusing week as US Treasury yields fell, then spiked and ended the week near their highest level of the week. Chairman Powell's hawkish comments that he was unsure whether the Fed had enough capacity to contain inflation sent bond yields higher, while the US 30-year bond auction was extremely weak. The US has pushed yields even higher. The US dollar followed moves in the US bond market and ended the week high.
OANDA:XAUUSD could adjust back below 1,900 USD/ounce. Conversely, the precious metal could also break new levels above $2,000 an ounce which could give traders the confidence to push prices even higher, at $2,050 an ounce.
GOLD turn on the increase right at the beginning of the sessionThe world gold spot price on the Asian market is around 1,941 USD/ounce, up nearly 3 USD/ounce compared to last week's closing session. The price of gold delivered according to the contract this morning reversed and increased by nearly 2 USD/ounce to 1,944 USD/ounce compared to the previous session's close.
World gold prices reversed to increase at the beginning of the morning session because the market was concerned that the world's second largest economy, China, was entering a state of deflation.
Specifically, last weekend, Trong Quoc announced that the consumer price index (CPI), China's main measure of inflation in October 2023, decreased by 0.2% over the same period last year. The CPI only increased again in August and September, while July still decreased by 0.3%.
After this information, HSBC Bank released analysis that China's deflation has caused difficulties for exporters to this country in Southeast Asian countries, Korea, Taiwan and Germany.
Experts say that deflation in China comes from excess capacity in manufacturing factories, which is pushing down global prices of manufactured goods. China's economic deflation puts strong pressure on regional and global economies.
Investors are concerned that deflation in the world's second largest economy will make global economic growth difficult in the near future, increasing risks, so they have stepped up gold purchases.
GOLD a miserable weekClosing the weekly trading session, world gold price stood at 1,938 USD/ounce, down sharply to 54 USD/ounce compared to last week's closing session. For the whole week, gold decreased by up to 3% in value, marking the worst week of price decline in the past 6 weeks.
There are no new developments in tensions in the Middle East, the USD continues to strengthen, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) maintains a "hawkish" stance,... are factors that have a negative impact on gold prices. world last week.
Gold's safe-haven demand is weakening as conflict tensions in the Middle East are not changing much. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's statements that the central bank is still willing to raise interest rates have a big impact on gold. Unless new developments change this view, gold will witness another slight price decline next week.
$GLD Cup & Handle Monthly Chart### Technical Analysis Update: AMEX:GLD Cup and Handle Formation on Monthly Chart
The SPDR Gold Trust ETF ( AMEX:GLD ), which tracks the price of gold, is exhibiting a notable pattern on its monthly chart known as a 'Cup and Handle' formation. This pattern is of keen interest to technical analysts and investors, as it often signals a bullish continuation trend.
#### Understanding the Cup and Handle Formation
The Cup and Handle is a bullish chart pattern that resembles the shape of a tea cup. This formation typically occurs in an uptrend and is indicative of a consolidation period followed by a breakout.
1. **The Cup**: This is formed when the price first experiences a gradual decline, followed by a stabilization and a rise back to the original starting point. The price movement during this phase should be rounded and shallow rather than a sharp V shape, and it usually spans several months to a year. For AMEX:GLD , the cup formation suggests a period of consolidation after an initial sell-off, followed by a gradual and steady recovery to the previous highs.
2. **The Handle**: Following the cup, a small downward drift in the price forms the handle. This is typically a retracement that does not go below the half-way point of the cup. The handle represents a final consolidation or a shakeout of less committed traders before a potential breakout. It's often seen as a bullish flag or pennant.
#### Implications for AMEX:GLD
For AMEX:GLD , the appearance of a Cup and Handle pattern on the monthly chart is significant. It indicates that after enduring a period of correction and consolidation, the ETF is potentially gearing up for a continuation of its prior uptrend.
#### Key Points to Watch
- **Breakout Point**: The critical level to watch is the resistance line formed at the top of the cup. A convincing breakout above this level on increased volume could signal the continuation of the bullish trend.
- **Handle Formation**: The depth and duration of the handle are crucial. It should not drop significantly into the cup and should show signs of stabilizing or minor retracement.
- **Volume**: A genuine breakout is often accompanied by higher-than-average trading volume, adding confirmation to the pattern.
#### Trading Considerations
Investors and traders considering positions in AMEX:GLD should closely monitor the completion of the handle and the subsequent price action. A breakout above the cup’s rim could offer a potential entry point, while a failure to break above or a drop below the handle might necessitate a reassessment of the bullish hypothesis.
As with any technical pattern, it's advisable to consider the Cup and Handle formation in conjunction with other fundamental and market factors. This comprehensive approach helps in making more informed investment decisions.
XAUUSD Is the pull-back completed?Almost 10 days ago we made a bold (at the time) bearish call (see chart below) for a short-term pull-back on Gold (XAUUSD) towards the 1W MA50:
The yellow metal has so far responded positively to this call as it dropped below the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) to 1945. The Channel Down pattern that emerged is using the 4H MA50 as its Resistance/ Lower Highs trend-line and until it breaks, we should be expecting a continuation. Oversold 4H RSI readings will always give technical bounces like yesterday's but as long as the 4H MA50 holds, it is more likely to see Gold test the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) on the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level at 1933. If the 4H MA50 does break and closes a candle above it, we will buy and target 1995.
Notice how the Channel Down pull-back is similar to the declines of July - August, May and April. The 4H MA50 served as the Resistance and in the case of April, it did test the 4H MA200.
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GOLD | Perk Up, Palladium in Freefall, Key LevelsUS DOLLAR FORECAST – OANDA:XAUUSD
- The U.S. dollar, as measured by the DXY index, rallies on soaring U.S. bond yields
- Powell’s hawkish comments reinforce the greenback’s advance
- This article examines Gold prices from a technical standpoint, analyzing key levels to watch in the coming days
The US dollar started off the day quietly but gained momentum later due to higher yields and weak demand for US government securities. Fed Chair Powell's comments during an IMF panel also boosted the dollar. He expressed concerns about achieving their inflation target and mentioned the possibility of higher rates in the case of stronger economic growth. As a result, the DXY index rose by almost 0.4% for the day.
Powell's comments imply the central bank is not fully convinced the rate hikes are finished. Another hike may be possible next month or in January, especially if financial conditions continue to improve as they have been since late October.
Traders should stay alert to economic data releases, especially the October consumer price index survey next Tuesday. Analysts predict a 0.1% rise in headline CPI and a 0.3% increase in the core gauge, both maintaining yearly rates.
The Fed's sensitivity to incoming information and concerns about inflation make any upward deviation in official data from consensus estimates likely to increase bond yields and support the case for higher interest rates for a longer period. This would have a positive impact on the US dollar, but a negative impact on gold.
OANDA:XAUUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Earlier this week, gold faced a setback when it failed to surpass the $2,010/$2,015 range. However, prices have rebounded after finding support around the 200-day moving average. Thursday saw a modest advance and if gains continue, resistance is at $1,980. Further strength would bring focus back to $2,010/$2,015.
On the other hand, if the bears stage a comeback and propel prices downward, the first area to keep an eye on is $1,945. Although gold might find support in this region during a retracement, a breakdown could pave the way for a slump towards $1,920. Below this threshold, the spotlight turns to the psychological $1,900 level.
GOLD leaving the previous optimistic positionOn the world market, gold price reached 1,959. Investors await a speech from US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell for more clues about interest rates. Following gold's sharp rally, some traders have moved away from their previously bullish positions, as market participants assess the risks of a broader conflict in the Middle East, while the downside less prevents cash flow into safe-haven assets.
Gold investors will start looking at economic data, potential action from the US Central Bank, and gold will react based on whatever the data brings. Therefore, it is difficult for gold to gain momentum if data does not show economic weakness. Although October was a historic month for the gold market as the precious metal saw record high closing prices, more factors are needed to create a sustained push in the market.
XAUUSD Bearish inside a Channel Down.Gold is trading inside a Channel Down, under the MA50 (4h).
The price recovered today as it made a Lower Low on the Channel's bottom after the RSI gave a Bullish Divergence and the MACD eventually formed a Bullish Cross.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell as long as the price closes under the Resistance level and the MA50 (4h).
Targets:
1. 1935 (Support 2).
Tips:
1. The RSI (4h) is under a Falling Resistance since October 20th. Sell if it stays under.
2. Further validation for a sell, when the MACD (4h) forms a Bearish Cross.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
GOLD | $1950 Key Support Approaches Bears Eye Further DownsideOANDA:XAUUSD PRICE FORECAST:
- Gold Continues its Move Lower as the $1950 Area Comes into Focus.
- DXY Could Resume its Move Lower as Key Resistance Level Holds Firm.
Gold prices are down due to hawkish comments from Fed policymakers, dampening hopes that the Fed is finished. Market participants were hoping for a different tone from Fed Chair Powell at the central bank conference, but he did not address monetary policy. However, there is still a chance he may discuss it tomorrow.
US DOLLAR INDEX RECOVERY FACES KEY RESISTANCE
The Dollar Index is struggling at the 105.63 resistance level, hindering its recovery. Fed policymakers Kashkari and Bowman suggest further rate hikes due to a strong economy. Fed Chair Powell's comments on monetary policy tomorrow will be worth noting. The Michigan Consumer Sentiment preliminary numbers on Friday could also impact the US Dollar.
Based on the CME FedWatch tool, expectations for another rate hike by policymakers have not significantly changed. The market still predicts a 90% probability that rates will remain unchanged at the December meeting. It is unlikely that this will change based on the remaining events this week.
OANDA:XAUUSD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Form a technical perspective, Gold continued its decline toward the psychological $1950 level. A break below the $1950 opens the door for a return to $1900 but there will be some key support tests that will need to be navigated first.
The $1930 support are being the most prominent. It did appear as though we may have a golden cross pattern and that may still occur but we it would require a recovery first.
Key Levels to Keep an Eye On:
Resistance levels: 1968.55 - 1980.00 - 2000.00
Support levels: 1950.00 - 1930.00 - 1900.00
GOLD price continues to declineOn the world market, the price of gold reached $1,954. The dollar rose 0.3% after hitting a six-week low in the previous session, making gold more expensive for buyers with other currencies. Besides, after increasing so strongly in a short period of time, the gold market shows signs of quietness. Investors are more cautious, so the market needs to be consolidated.
Market analysts said that the gold market is waiting for more dovish signals from the US Central Bank before recovering. Gold prices are consolidating after slipping into overbought territory. Gold rose more than 7% in October as conflict in the Middle East boosted safe-haven demand. Besides, the gold market is looking for a new catalyst, after quiet trading last weekend.
GOLD | May Get Boost from Macro TrendsOANDA:XAUUSD OUTLOOK:
- Gold and silver prices have retreated in recent weeks, but their outlook remains constructive
- If bond yields continue to push lower, precious metals could shine heading into 2024
- This article explores XAUUSD key levels to watch this week
Gold prices have fallen in the past few weeks due to the easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and reduced demand for safe-haven assets. The situation has not escalated into a broader conflict involving other countries like Iran or Lebanon. Instead, traders have turned their focus to the bullish stock market, causing a shift away from non-yielding assets.
Despite recent market dynamics, there are reasons to be optimistic about precious metals. One catalyst for their prices could be the pullback in rates, especially if the correction accelerates in the near term.
OANDA:XAUUSD PRICE TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Gold has seen a modest retreat in recent days after failing to take out resistance in the $2,010/$2,015 range late last month. If losses deepen in the coming trading sessions, support appears at $1,960, followed by $1,945. While there's potential for the metal to find stability in this area before making a comeback, a breakdown could open the door for a move toward $1,920.
On the other hand, if the bulls engineer a resurgence and propel prices upward, overhead resistance is located at $2,010/$2,015 as mentioned earlier. Upside clearance of this technical barrier would reignite bullish sentiment, setting the stage for a rally towards $2,060. On further strength and sustained momentum, buyers may gain the confidence to challenge this year's high at $2,085.
GOLD precious metals continue to declineToday's world gold price listed on Kitco is at 1,968 USD/ounce, down 11 USD/ounce compared to early yesterday morning.
Precious metal prices continued to decline as the USD in the international market increased sharply. The DXY index, which measures the movement of the USD against a basket of 6 major currencies, increased from 105 points to 105.7 points.
The USD's strong recovery has taken away gold's appeal for buyers holding other currencies.
Carlo Alberto De Casa, market analyst at Kinesis Money, said the gold market is waiting for more dovish signals from the US Central Bank before recovering. He added that gold prices are consolidating after sliding into the overbought zone. Gold rose more than 7% in October as conflict in the Middle East boosted safe-haven demand.
Gold Futures ~ November TA Outlook (4H Intraday)COMEX:GC1! chart mapping/analysis.
Note: TradingView chart B-ADJ adjusted for contract changes
Gold Futures holding bullish consolidation after epic rally since early October due to Middle East tensions triggering a "Flight to Safety" trade + institutional short covering.
Wait & see approach whether Gold will continue to climb higher within ascending parallel channel (green), or capitulate to refill the breakout gap, TBC.
GOLD | $1980 Support Break Eyed, Do Bears Have the Momentum?PRICE FORECAST OANDA:XAUUSD :
- Gold consolidates above key support as yields rise and psychological limit gains improve.
- DXY is trying to recover from Friday's sell-off.
Gold prices are consolidating after another attempt at $2000/oz on Friday. Despite the weaker US dollar, we are seeing a slight recovery in US bond yields and an improvement in risk appetite, which will certainly limit gains in the precious commodity.
The $2000/oz level remains a challenge for Gold, despite the weakening Dollar. Gold's safe-haven appeal may be fading. There is growing optimism that conflict in the Middle East can be avoided. Last week, the Fear and Greed index started at 30 and is now at 42.
Gold may be supported by the appeal of holding precious metals and a weaker US dollar. However, to sustain a break above $2000, continued weakness in US data is needed to confirm that the Fed has made up its mind. USD weakness and weaker US fundamentals could push Gold higher.
Improved sentiment and risk appetite could push Gold prices down to $1,950. There is also a $1,843/oz price gap that still needs to be closed, but it could take a long time to do so.
RISK EVENTS AHEAD
Over the next 48 hours, several Federal Reserve policymakers will speak. Fed Chairman Powell will close with comments on both Wednesday and Thursday. It will be interesting to see if there are any efforts to dampen market optimism that the Fed will raise interest rates. It is worth noting the comments of Fed policymaker Thomas Barkin, as he stated that it is too early to make assumptions about the Fed's outlook in December. Two more inflation reports are expected ahead of the Fed meeting, this will be very important.
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK OANDA:XAUUSD
From a technical perspective, Gold needs to maintain support above the $1977-1980 level on the daily timeframe to continue its upward momentum. However, there is notable selling pressure around the $2000/oz mark, as multiple attempts to push prices higher have failed. Friday's daily candle also showed a significant increase in wick, suggesting ongoing selling pressure above and around the $2000/oz mark.
The bullish structure remains intact as long as the daily candle does not close below the $1,968 support zone. It is possible that we could dip slightly below the $1,980 support level before bouncing back from the $1,968 area and towards the psychological level of $2,000/oz. The mixed signals are due to the uncertain macro and geopolitical situation, causing volatility and instability in 2023.
Key Levels to Keep an Eye On:
Resistance levels: 1992.89 - 2000.00 - 2008.00
Support levels: 1977.00 - 1968.00 - 1953.00
GOLD prices on the world market suddenly plummetedThe world gold spot price on the Asian market is around 1,977 USD/ounce, down more than 12 USD/ounce compared to trading at the same time yesterday morning. The price of gold delivered according to the contract also decreased sharply by over 12 USD to 1,984 USD/ounce.
The market welcomes more positive economic information. Specifically, the Japanese economy showed that the October PMI index increased well above the expansion level, reaching 51.6 points, higher than forecast and September's 51.1 points.
Along with that, in Europe, the region's largest economy, Germany, said that factory orders in September increased again, after a decline in August. The increase in September was 0.2%. , much higher than the forecast of minus 1%. Germany's October composite PMI index increased slightly by 45.9 points, higher than the forecast 45.8 points. Germany's October services PMI also increased to 48.2 points, higher than the forecast 48 points.
Investor confidence in the Eurozone market increased from minus 21.9 in October to minus 18.6 this November, higher than the forecast of minus 22.2.
From the above economic information, experts believe that major economies in Europe and Asia continue to show positive signs of recovery as new orders increase. The increase in investor confidence will also help them return to investing in the European economy, helping this region escape the economic downturn as previously forecast.
Experts say that the economy is recovering and the European Central Bank recently signaled that it will increase interest rates one more time to lower the inflation rate to the target level of 2%. The Fed decided to keep interest rates stable last week. This has caused investors to reduce gold speculation and instead buy profitable assets such as stocks and bonds.
XAUUSD: Head and Shoulders targeting the 4H MA200Gold is forming a Head and Shoulders pattern on the 4H timeframe, which is turning bearish (RSI = 44.053, MACD = 0.190, ADX = 23.859) as the price can't stay over the 4H MA50, which has turned flat.
If the price closes under the neckline of the pattern, we will short and target the 2.0 Fibonacci extension (TP = 1,935.50), which is slightly over the 4H MA200.
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GOLD | Investors Capitalize on Weak NFPsANALYSIS & OUTLOOK OANDA:XAUUSD
- Weaker US labor data and safe-haven demand boosted gold prices.
- All eyes are on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and Michigan consumer sentiment.
- XAUUSD may experience some downsides.
OANDA:XAUUSD BASIC CONTEXT
Gold prices rose on the back of a weaker-than-expected Nonfarm Payrolls report, which showed higher unemployment and lower wage growth. This could signal a weaker job market in the region. The Federal Reserve will welcome the data as it addresses concerns about a recession and stagflation. As a result, US Treasury yields and real interest rates fell, making gold more attractive to investors.
The Israel-Hamas war was volatile and supported gold prices as a safe haven. Escalation could increase gold prices. Next week will be quieter but Fed guidance will cause volatility. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and other officials will speak. Michigan consumer sentiment could impact the US dollar.
Price action OANDA:XAUUSD the daily is currently trading within a rising wedge pattern that typically appears after a previous downtrend. In this case, the uptrend negates much of the validity of the pattern but with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) in overbought territory, a pullback may not be out of the question. A longer-term view could see the gold pair pull back after which a potential golden crossover could form, allowing XAUUSD to rally once more.
Resistance levels: 2048.79 - 2000.00 - 1987.42
Support levels: Wedge support - 1950.00
XAUUSD This makes all the difference between bearish and bullishGold has taken a pause on October's enormous rise that was backed by the geopolitical tension in Israel, and formed a Bullish Flag pattern.
The whole pattern from October's low until now looks very much like March 2023.
A Bullish Megaphone with Higher Lows to buy and Higher Highs to sell, led the market to the eventual 2080 peak.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell as long as the (1d) candle closes under Resistance (1).
2. Buy if it closes over it.
Targets:
1. 1955 (Rising Support of a symmetrical to March Bullish Megaphone and over MA50 (1d)).
2. 2049 (Resistance 2).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) got overbought and pulled back. The last two times it did a similar structure was on March 17th and January 13rd. The former extended the rise while the latter had a strong decline to the 1805 level that formed Support (1).
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
XAUUSD Channel Up into Head and Shoulders? Which will prevail?Gold (XAUUSD) is heading into today's Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report trading on a Head and Shoulders (H&S) within a Channel Up pattern. Even though the volatility will be great coming into the report, we should trade this on a candle closing approach.
A 4H candle closing above the 1993.50 Symmetrical Resistance, will be a bullish signal, targeting 2020, which will be a typical +2.70% rise as the previous two bullish legs of the Channel Up.
A 4H candle closing below the 1970 neckline and more importantly the 4H MA100 (green trend-line), will be a bearish signal for us and we will target the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) at 1930.
Note that the 4H MACD just formed a Bullish Cross. However the previous one on October 27 failed to turn the trend bullish and instead formed the (so far) top of the Channel Up.
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XAUUSD Best and worst case scenarios but both are bearish.Gold / XAUUSD is about to form a Bearish Cross on the 1day RSI.
All previous 1day RSI Bearish Cross formations in the last 12 months have either pulled back near the 0.382 or 0.618 Fibonacci levels.
With the market showing clear signs of exhaustion from the overbought valuation that is caused by the Israel-Palestine war, we have most likely seen the short term top and a correction is much needed technically.
Sell now and target at least 1935, which besides the 0.382 Fibonacci, will test the 1day MA50.
Previous chart:
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The road higher will be bumpyWhile bullish in the long term, we are still awaiting further pullback in the price of gold after its impressive run above $2,000. Right now, we are paying close attention to support and resistance levels near $2,009, $1,985, and $1,959. If the price of gold manages to hold above $1,985, it will be positive; the same applies to the breakout above $2,000 and resistance near $2,009. However, if the price fails to stay above the mentioned level, and we see more decline in RSI and Stochastic on the daily chart, it will alert us to more downside; in such a case, we would expect gold to drop below $1,960 (and maybe even to as low as $1,925). Yet, regardless of our opinions, it is important to note that there is a FOMC meeting scheduled for today, which can have a volatile impact (to either side) on the price depending on the FED’s decision and the chairman's tone during the press conference.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 portrays the daily chart of XAUUSD and simple support/resistance levels derived from particular peaks and troughs.
Illustration 1.02
The image above shows the daily chart of RSI. The yellow arrow indicates a bearish crossover below 70 points, which raises our suspicion (though it still could be just a fakeout).
Technical analysis
Daily = Bullish
Weekly = Neutral
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
