XAUUSD: Bullish inside Channel Up. Bearish under it.Gold turned again marginally overbought on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 70.196, MACD = 25.640, ADX = 45.356) as it managed to stay supported inside the Channel Up pattern of October, over the 4H MA50 as well. Even though Gold's price action this past month took many traders by surprise, its price action is really that simple, a technical Channel Up, which keeps the trend bullish inside it (TP = 2,055) targeting the 3.5 Fibonacci extension (like the October 13th HH) or if it crosses under the 4H MA50, bearish targeting the 4h MA200 and 0.5 Fibonacci global retracement level (TP = 1,922.50).
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GC1! (Gold Futures)
XAUUSD High chances for a short-term pull-back.Gold (XAUUSD) is having an remarkable 3 week rally after a technically flawless hit-and-rebound on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) on the week of October 02. Obviously, this rally has been stretched by the geopolitical unrest in Middle East and isn't purely technical on its full range, but besides the small fundamental correction we should see once peace is restored, there are a few important conclusions we can make from similar technical situations in the recent past.
For the past +3 years (since the August 2020 High), Gold has seen another 6 similar rallies (+10.53% to +14.12%). Of those 6 only 2 formed a 1W MACD Bullish Cross, such as the rally we are currently at. Even the 3 rallies after the September 26 2022 bottom that were on an uptrend, delivered short-term corrections to at lest the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level. This time the 0.382 Fibonacci level is marginally below 1940 and can be your target.
If the current rally is indeed the start of a new multi-month bullish sequence to new All Time Highs (ATH), then a hit-and-rebound at 1940 would be ideal technically, as it will test successfully the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which is the standard Support level during long-term uptrends.
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GOLD : Here is where YOU BUY , technical & fundamental analysisi am still very bullish biased towards gold i believe you should not be looking for anykind of selling trades right now since you are against a strong trend. but the day we hear a cease fire situation you should forget all of this and look for sells.
Bullish on Gold FuturesHello everyone,
After breaking an important psychological level, and optimism of bonds higher, Gold seems poised for stability at current levels and may continue higher.
Being a classic 'safe haven' Investment, it's not surprising that currently investors will be looking to Gold.
Plenty of room for Intra-Day Traders to do well right now.
Happy Trading!
gold 4hour = if last high break, gold will go upper I think gold is sell now , see daily chart AC indicator , it is red = down trend will come if high not break
if you have open sell , 100% put SL or hedge buystop on high ( if buystop never close it, gold main trend is up, if you close it and gold go upper,you will 0.00 ...)
my orders = I have sell (I open after pinbar with SL in pinbar high + buystop in last high + I will buy gold in 2 place 1925 after buy pinbar
I want you win,profit
GOLD 2 POSSIBLE BULLISH TRADESHello traders here are 2 scenarios that i will be watching for tomorrow
the bias for gold is still bullish due to middle east situation , and the trend is bullish so you should be looking for buys.
the question is where ? : zone 1 Trendline + green area we might see a bullish continuation from there .
zone 2 : the golden zone which is also a key level that turned from resistance to support (Most Trusted then zone 1 )
other bullish clues : Daily candle closed as A Hammer .
the news tommorow can effect the situation stay vigilant
XAUUSD Channel Down on (1h). Sell.Gold has converted the formerly strong Support, MA50 (1h), to a Resistance and a Channel Down has emerged.
Today it priced first the Lower Low and now the Lower High.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell on the current market price.
2. Buy if the price crosses over Resistance (1).
Targets:
1. 1950 (Lower Low on a -1.39% decline, like the previous sell leg).
2. 1997.30 (Resistance 2).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1h) is reversing right where the Resistance that priced the previous Lower High was. An additional bearish signal.
2. 1950 is on the path of the MA200 (1h). An important support test for the long term.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
Gold's safe-haven behaviorIn the previous idea about gold, we expressed skepticism for overly bullish prospects in the short term (in the long term, we stay bullish). The main idea behind that is gold often reacts (initially) positively to geopolitical tensions, stock market weakness, or any type of disruptive event. Nevertheless, even if persistent, these events (or disruptions) eventually start to be priced in and ignored by market participants. Depending on many external factors, the periods of an initial positive reaction vary in length and strength. Below are charts illustrating this relationship between gold and SPX.
Illustration 1.01 - 2021 market peak
Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of XAUUSD. The orange line represents the S&P 500 Index. It can be observed that in late 2021 when SPX started to fall, gold reacted positively at first. However, this positive reaction lasted only for about two months. After that, gold started to follow the stock market to the downside.
Illustration 1.02 - COVID-19 stock market crash
The image above displays the daily chart of XAUUSD. The orange line represents the S&P 500 Index. Again, gold can be seen rising in an initial reaction to the COVID-19 stock market crash but falling later.
Illustration 1.03 - 2007/2008 crisis
Illustration 1.03 portrays the daily chart of XAUUSD and SPX (orange line). After the stock market peaked in 2007, gold continued to rise. In fact, it managed to go on an approximately 200-day rally before finally reversing to the downside (this is one of the strongest positive reactions in gold to the weakness in stocks).
Illustration 1.04 - 1987 crash (Black Monday)
Illustration 1.04 shows the daily chart of XAUUSD and SPX (orange line). In response to the 1987 crash, gold rose for 111 days. Interestingly, its peak coincided with the stock market's bottom.
Illustration 1.05 - 2010 flash-crash
Above is the daily chart of XAUUSD and SPX (orange line). During the May 2010 selloff, gold reacted positively to the weakness in stocks at first. Then, it erased nearly all of its gains, rebounded again, and erased gains for the second time.
Technical analysis
Daily = Bullish
Weekly = Slightly bearish
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
XAUUSD Channel Up still holdingGold / XAUUSD is trading inside a Channel Up since the October 6th Low and the start of this fast and strong rise.
It has been having symmetric pull backs of -1.25% to -1.70% and appears to have completed the latest.
As lng as the 1964 Low holds, buy and target 2020 (+2.95% rise, same as the last two).
If it crosses under 1964, sell and target 1940 (1day MA50).
Previous chart:
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XAUUSD: Excellent opportunity to buy the dip this week.Gold is on a fierce rally since the October 6th bottom that has turned the 1D technical outlook overbought (RSI = 71.518, MACD = 17.530, ADX = 38.679). The price crossed over the Fibonacci 0.618 level but Friday's 1D candle closed downwards leaving a big wick above (but still closed green). We may see a Triangle consolidation much like March 20th-April 3rd before a higher price, allowing the 1D RSI to drop under 60.000 again the the 1D MA50 to approach within supporting distance.
Technically, the whole pattern since September 20th-now, is indentical with February 2nd-March 20th, as their highs and lows are on symmetric levels. Consequently, this week's pullback can be an excellent opportunity to buy the dip and target the candle body high of May 4th, the All Time High (TP = 2,050).
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XAUUSD Is this rally coming to an end?Two weeks ago (October 07) we called for a new Bullish move (see chart below) on Gold (XAUUSD) as the price hit the 1W MA200 and held it
The sheer force behind this bullish move has surpassed all technical expectations as it is also fundamentally driven by the Middle East tension. Gold acts as a safe haven in times of market uncertainty. In any case, the rally broke today above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level (from the ATH) and entered the 5-month Resistance Zone that is in place since May 18 and has 10 rejections under its belt.
The 1D RSI broken yesterday into the +70.00 overbought territory so a technical pull-back isn't at all unrealistic now. It all depends on the 1D candle closing (which will also be the weekly closing). If the candle closes below 1979 (0.618 Fibonacci), it will be an early bearish signal. The target of the first correction of the previous similar bullish leg in March was the 4H MA50 (red trend-line). As a result, if the candle makes that closing, we are willing to take the risk and target the 4H MA50/ 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) Support cluster at 1935.
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The Gold Odyssey - Breaking out of top consolidation finallyIF you had been following the series of The Gold Odyssey, you would know how well the probabilities are in the analyses.
To the point, Gold is ready to break its almost three year consolidation (huge) range.
1. You can see the powerful reversal off the mid-range support;
2. The candles show and project good momentum to follow through;
3. A trend line breakout already just happened with the week not closed yet; and
4. MACD and VolDiv are only starting to align for a good bullish breakout.
Incoming!!!!
GOLD → Strong zone retest. Bounce before further growth OANDA:XAUUSD is breaking out and is about to test a key area of liquidity at the moment. What can we expect to see from gold going forward?
On the chart I have marked such important levels as 1953 and 1946.7. This is a rather strong resistance area forming a global sideways range. After a long retest, the price is highly likely to fail to break this level the first time and may form a correction to the support. But in the near term, based on fundamental factors and market sentiment, we can assume that the growth will continue after the pullback. In the medium term, the price may test the 2000 area, but we are interested in cheaper zones to start with.
Moving averages support the bullish trend.
Support levels: 1928
Resistance levels: 1946, 1953
Since we have a strong trend + distribution, this movement may continue, but after the retest of the mentioned resistance area. We will follow the price reaction to the area to make further conclusions
COMEX_MINI:MGC1! COMEX:GC1! OANDA:XAGUSD COMEX:SI1! CAPITALCOM:US500 TVC:DXY
Regards R. Linda!
XAUUSD Overbought, requires a technical relief.Gold is trading inside a Channel Up since the strong rebound on the MA200 (1w).
The MA100 (1h) has been basically supporting since its beginning and even though Resistance (1) broke, the sideways trading on the RSI (1h) hits to a possible short term pull back.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 1920 (MA100 1h and bottom of Channel Up).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1h) is inside a Triangle pattern. The direction to which that breaks, can be an indication of the next trend on the 4h time frame.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
🥇 GOLD - Growth will continue after the breakout of 1929On the senior timeframe we see a stop after a strong distribution. This may last until the price breaks the resistance of 1929. At this point, consolidation and a retest of resistance is forming
TA on the high timeframe:
1) The bullish trend is strong
2) The area of 1929-1932 stops us from further growth.
TA on the low timeframe:
1) Price is consolidating. Growth is formed from the support 1913
2) Retest of resistance can be accompanied by both rebound and breakout.
3) The signal for a rebound will be a false breakout, and the signal for further growth will be a breakout and consolidation above 1929.
Key resistance 📈 1929
Key support 📉 1914
GOLD → Consolidation phase and key boundary OANDA:XAUUSD continues to form consolidation in the range between 1928.8 - 1914.2. In the near future resistance may be tested, the price reaction to this level will determine the future direction of the price
Since the price is in the key range of 1928 - 1914, there is a probability of price bounce from the resistance. Further growth may continue after the price goes beyond 1928 - the signal for this will be further consolidation of the price above the level.
In periods of geopolitical uncertainty investors rush to safe assets. Gold is a rare bright spot in such turbulent periods.Geopolitical fluctuations are a good reason for investors to look for a safe haven in gold. Despite zero yields, the yellow metal is a preferred asset for money managers who want to wait out scary periods in world affairs. The moving averages are supporting the trend and on the Daily timeframe, price is testing global downside resistance, breaking through which price will get the 2000 mark as a further target
Support levels: 1914.2, 1909
Resistance levels: 1928.8
In the long term I expect a retest of the resistance. If the price breaks through and consolidates above the level, gold will head higher. With the formation of a false breakout and price consolidation below the level, the market will give us a correction to support
COMEX_MINI:MGC1! COMEX:GC1! OANDA:XAGUSD COMEX:SI1! TVC:DXY CAPITALCOM:US500
Regards R. Linda!
XAUUSD Channel Down turning into Inverse H&S?Gold (XAUUSD) emphatically smashed the bullish target we set 2 weeks ago (see chart below) and made a standard Lower High at the top of the 5-month Channel Up:
The price also hit the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) in the process and that is a technical sell, with which we will target 1890 (just above Symmetrical Support 2). Since however the October 06 rebound was initiated on the 1W MA200 (red trend-line), it may not just be a Channel Down Lower Low but a long-term market bottom and the Head of an Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S) pattern. A Bullish Cross completion on the 1W MACD, will largely confirm that.
Being a technical bullish reversal pattern, the IH&S typically targets the 2.0 Fibonacci extension, so 2095 is our long-term target. But on the shorter term, if the price breaks above 1953.50 (Resistance 1), we will target 1987 (just below Resistance 2).
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GOLD → A counter-trend correction is forming. Panic zone OANDA:XAUUSD has been forming a correction since the opening of the session and has reached the area of 1910. The price enters the panic zone relative to 1914. What should we expect from gold next?
The correction on the background of a strong surge of energy and distributive movement should have happened. The market should pull back and gather potential before further upside. The price is testing the 1914.15 area for a breakout. The price is trading in the panic zone, where there are a lot of buyers' bids and sellers' bids are formed. A false break of the level will give us an impulse to 1928.8 and then to 1946. But, if the market consolidates below 1914.15, the correction may continue towards 1905 and 1900, but before further growth. The upward movement in the medium term may continue, for this price will have to overcome 1914, 1928 and 1946, At the moment we are waiting for the price to find support before further growth.
Support levels: 1905, 1900, 1895, SMA
Resistance levels: 1914, 1928, 1946
In the future I expect the continuation of growth, but only after the end of counter-trend correction
COMEX_MINI:MGC1! COMEX:GC1! OANDA:XAGUSD COMEX:SI1! CAPITALCOM:US500 TVC:DXY
Regards R. Linda!
Gold futures eyes $2,577 in acceleration of upside impulseA pullback in yellow wave (2) almost hit 61.8% of yellow wave (1).
Now we see the strong minor impulse to the upside.
It can be a part of large yellow wave (3).
The target is projected at the distance of 1.618x of wave (1) with aim at $2,577.
Watch how price breaks above the top of wave (1) beyond $2,086
Risk/reward is 1:2.5, one could get it better if goes on a lower time frame and buys on
minor pullback following minor wave 1 of (3).
Do you see gold futures touching $2,577?
Is the Downtrend Nearing its End?Last Friday, on October 13th, a significant white candle with exceptionally high volume was observed, possibly driven by two catalysts:
– Escalating geopolitical conflicts.
– A decrease in CPI, leading to market expectations of a potential halt in rate increases by the Fed.
Trend
– A large white candle with exceptionally high volume touched the upper boundary of the downtrend channel.
– Let's observe if the market can sustain its bullish momentum next week and breach the downtrend channel.
Symmetrical Projection: Breaking the Downtrend “N” Pattern
– The 100% price projection from the initial swing starting at the 2nd lower high has been achieved.
– Furthermore, the price has already surpassed the 100% projection of the pullback, indicating the possible termination of the downtrend pattern.
– After this breach, we can expect either a reversal in the trend or a sideways movement.
Conclusion
– An uptrend is more likely to occur based on the two situations mentioned just now:
A large bullish candle with exceptionally high volume is on the verge of breaking the downtrend channel.
The downtrend N pattern has been disrupted.
Preparation for the Possible Uptrend Scenario
– Instead of simply jumping into the breakout, I will be waiting for a retest before getting on board.
– Potential retest levels: Some key Fibonacci retracement levels from the lowest low (A) to the previous high (B) (assuming the previous high is the initial target price of the upward move).
The 0.236 level: close to the key level at 1969.
The 0.382 level: close to the high of the second pullback of the downtrend.
The 0.5 level
Not Financial Advice
The information contained in this article is not intended as, and should not be understood as financial advice. You should take independent financial advice from a professional who is aware of the facts and circumstances of your individual situation.