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GC1! (Gold Futures)

Cruel sell-off week, GOLD down more than 4%OANDA:XAUUSD This week suffered an extremely brutal sell-off, falling more than 4%, the largest decline since September 2023. Trump is the biggest overall reason for OANDA:XAUUSD plummet Gold had a pretty good month in October, rising along with the US Dollar which was supported by expectations of a possible victory for Donald Trump. Gold prices had previously even extended their gains despite a clear recovery in US Treasury yields across all maturities. However, things have changed significantly since Trump was elected US president The main concerns surround the possibility that the Trump administration will again use tariff measures. These measures will likely spur inflation again and could eventually prompt the Fed to reverse its ongoing easing cycle. The main factor behind gold's surge earlier this year was ongoing geopolitical tensions, especially the escalating conflict between Israel and Hamas and the protracted war in Ukraine. Whenever there is new news about the worsening conflict situation, investors flock to safe-haven assets such as gold. However, recently since Trump's victory, the geopolitical situation and conflicts are showing positive signs, which will create the basis for further gold selling pressure. The Fed is also creating pressure on OANDA:XAUUSD Slightly hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell last week boosted the dollar and dampened interest in gold. Powell said Thursday that the central bank is in no hurry to reduce borrowing costs while the economy continues to be strong, the labor market is solid and inflation is above its 2% target. After Powell's speech, investors lowered the likelihood of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points at its December meeting, from 72% to 61.9%, according to CME Group's FedWatch data. In addition to Powell's comments, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said the Fed is in no hurry to cut interest rates. Finally, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee left open the possibility of a December Fed meeting, adding, "The debate over neutral interest rates could slow the pace of rate cuts." However, at the end of last Friday's trading session, despite positive US data, the Dollar was still under pressure as market participants took profits before the weekend. That limited gold's decline after falling to a 2-month low of $2,536/oz. Highlights this week This week, gold traders will pay attention to data from the Federal Reserve, unemployment claims and the release of the S&P Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI). Overall, this week will be a week with quite a few notable data and events, other than unexpected events such as "Trump is sick and Trump threatens to fire Jerome Powell". Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Although gold recovered very slightly this past weekend, it still ended the week with 6 consecutive days of decline. Gold's recovery keeps it above the 1% Fibonacci level at $2,548 but there is still plenty of room ahead as the most recent pressures from the lower edge of the price channel and horizontal resistance at $2,588 join the Fibonacci level. A 0.786% retracement will still prevent the recovery of gold prices. On the other hand, it still has a technical trend that is completely tilted towards a bearish outlook with the price channel being the main trend in the short term. In addition, the Relative Strength Index is still pointing down without reaching the oversold area, showing that there is still room for price decline ahead. Looking ahead, as long as gold remains within the price channel and below the $2,600 raw price, price increases should only be considered short-term technical corrections without affecting the current primary trend to the downside. The downtrend in gold prices will be noticed again by the positions listed below. Support: 2,548 – 2,536 – 2,528USD Resistance: 2,600USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2606 - 2604⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2610 →Take Profit 1 2599 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2594 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2519 - 2521⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2515 →Take Profit 1 2526 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2531
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD → Are the buyers back? What's going on?FX:XAUUSD is getting stronger after a false breakdown of support. The fundamental background also contributes to it. The focus is on resistance 2589 and 2618, which divide the market into two zones. The attention of the markets is shifting to the escalation of the conflict in Ukraine. Biden (or those above him) decided to escalate an already tense situation with his authorization of long-range missiles before leaving office. (A rather bizarre maneuver that generally characterizes Democrats as advocates of war, not peace). Gold has been reacting accordingly since the opening session. China is trying to strengthen its economy, and the dollar's consolidation after the rally gives gold fans a chance. Technically gold is in the range of 2604 - 2546. Since the opening of the session, the price has been rallying quite strongly, which increases the chances of resistance to stop this rise Resistance levels: 2589, 2604, 2618 Support levels: 2559, 2546, 2531 The situation is complicated due to the mixed fundamental background. False breakdown of 2589 and consolidation below this zone will strengthen the sales. But, there is a probability of retest of 2618 (liquidity zone). Similarly, a false breakout will trigger selling. But if the fundamental situation will strengthen in the direction of gold, the market will have a chance to change the local trend from 2618 Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ FX:XAUUSD ;) Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
15
XAUUSD 1D MA100 hit after 9 months! Expect ATH if it holds.Gold (XAUUSD) eventually broke below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) last week and our bearish break-out signal easily hit the 2650 Target: As you can see that was exactly on the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), what we claimed is the first long-term Support level. In fact that 1D MA100 test was the first touch in 9 months (since February 15 2024). Technically, as long as it holds, we are expecting the long-term Channel Up to rebound on this Higher Low and start the new Bullish Leg towards a Higher High, which will be a new All Time High (ATH) for Gold. The 1D MACD is reversing and if it forms a Bullish Cross, it will be the confirmation of the Bullish Leg. The last time actually it formed one this low (below 0.0), the Bullish Leg that followed reached the previous Resistance and then pulled-back again to the 1D MA50. As a result, we are now targeting the previous Resistance level at 2790. If however we get a 1D candle closing below the 1D MA100, we won't hesitate to book the small loss again and reverse to a break-out sell, targeting a potential contact with the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) at 2440. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by TradingShot
WTI continues to decline, even as Biden reverses policyAccording to CFTC data, the net long position of crude oil speculators decreased by 21,944 lots to 71,587 lots, reflecting that market expectations of rising crude oil prices have cooled. TVC:USOIL fell during the Asian session on Monday (November 18), trading around $66.90/barrel, a drop equivalent to 2.43% on the day. Basically, although the geopolitical situation is heating up, its impact on oil prices is limited. The main reason is that global demand is expected to continue to decline, which is an important factor limiting the recovery of oil prices. EIA inventories also increased last week, which is not favorable for a supply-side recovery in oil prices. According to CFTC data, the net long position of crude oil speculators decreased by 21,944 lots to 71,587 lots, reflecting that market expectations of rising crude oil prices have cooled. Biden reverses policy on Russia-Ukraine conflict, allowing Ukraine's military to use US weapons to attack Russia's homeland President Joe Biden's administration has allowed Ukraine to use US-made weapons to attack Russia's homeland Russian land. This is a major reversal in Washington's policy in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Sources said Ukraine plans to launch its first long-range strike in the coming days, but they did not disclose details due to concerns about operational security. There are still two months until President-elect Trump will take office on January 20. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has for months asked for Ukraine's military to use US weapons to attack military targets deep inside Russia. Biden's policy reversal has created some risks in the market, but it is also not considered good support for oil prices when there is a very high possibility that when Trump takes office, all policies related to the War in Ukraine will be abolished. On the daily chart, TVC:USOIL is still maintaining the main downtrend sent to readers in previous publications with the current short-term target at about 66.44USD. The relative strength index (RSI) is pointing down with a steep slope and away from the oversold area, suggesting a broad bearish outlook ahead. As long as WTI crude oil remains below its 21-day moving average (EMA21), it will still have a bearish near-term trend outlook. And once WTI crude oil is sold below 66.44USD it will have the conditions to fall a bit more with the target then being around 65.28USD. During the day, the downtrend of WTI crude oil will be noticed again by the following technical levels. Support: 66.44 – 65.28USD Resistance: 68.11 – 68.77USD
TVC:USOIL
by Xayah_trading
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Nov 18 - Nov 22]This week, international gold prices fell sharply, from 2,686 USD/oz to 2,536 USD/oz and closed the week at 2,563 USD/oz. Thus, from the peak of 2,790 USD/oz, up to now the international gold price has decreased by more than 250 USD per ounce, equivalent to about 9%. The reason why international gold prices have dropped sharply in recent days is because the market expects newly elected President Donald Trump to soon resolve geopolitical tensions in Ukraine, the Middle East, the Korean Peninsula..., causing shelter demand. in gold fell sharply. Besides, Mr. Trump's tariff policy will cause inflation to rise, forcing the FED to raise interest rates again, pushing up the USD. In addition, recently announced US economic indicators, such as retail sales in October increased by 0.4% over the previous month; Consumer confidence recovered strongly;... In particular, FED Chairman Powell said the US economy did not give any signal that the FED should rush to continue sharply reducing interest rates. Short-term gold prices next week may not end their correction due to the impact of policy expectations under Donald Trump's second term. 📌From a technical perspective, on the weekly chart, if this is an adjustment for this chart, the gold price will at least fall around the 2,400 USD/oz mark. On the H4 chart, the gold price has completed a shoulder pattern. head and shoulders as commented last week when the 2640 support zone was broken. Next week, it is possible that the gold price will increase and adjust again. If the support level of 2526 does not hold, gold is at risk of continuing to be sold off, causing the price to fall further below the 2400 mark. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 2,548 – 2,536 – 2,528USD Resistance: 2,581 – 2,588 – 2,600USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2626 - 2624⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2630 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2432 - 2434⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2428
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Xayah_trading
GOLD → How long will the correction last? Emphasis on 2590FX:XAUUSD after a false breakdown of 2546 forms a pullback and tests 2577. It is quite adequate reaction after such a strong fall. The fundamental background is still negative, and the dollar is accelerating its growth. Ambiguous economic data from China increased economic concerns. Uncertainty about future interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve also continues to weigh on the markets, especially after Powell said that there is no need to rush to cut rates as the economy is still growing, the labor market is robust and inflation is still above the 2% target. Now all eyes are on the all-important retail sales report.... Technically, it is worth paying attention to 0.5-0.7 fibo and resistance at 2589. A false breakdown and consolidation below these areas may trigger a fall. Resistance levels: 2577, 2589, 2594. Support levels: 2546, 2531, 2500 At the moment, gold is hinting that the pullback up may be a bit prolonged. Most likely MM will go for liquidity (above these levels) before the news. False breakout may provoke bears to activity, which will only strengthen the sales. But, a rebound from 0.5 fibo and a smooth return to 2546 will increase the chances of a breakdown and fall. Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ FX:XAUUSD ;) Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
13
GOLD recovered slightly with main bearish outlookWhen the US Dollar index TVC:DXY rose to its highest level this year, which has reduced the investment appeal of OANDA:XAUUSD fell again and gold prices plummeted to a 2-month low. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell recently suggested that there may not be any interest rate cuts in December. According to data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday, the US producer price index (PPI) in October increased 2.4% year-on-year, higher than the increase of 2.0%. 3% expected and higher than the 1.9% increase in September. Core PPI, which typically influences the core personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), rose 3.1% year-on-year, up from 2.9% previously and above expectations of 3%. Additionally, Thursday's data also showed the number of Americans filing initial unemployment claims fell to its lowest level since May last week, suggesting labor demand remains solid after the storms. and recent strikes. The U.S. Department of Labor reported that the number of Americans filing initial unemployment claims fell by 4,000 to 217,000 in the week ended November 9, compared with a median forecast of 220,000. Gold prices have fallen for five consecutive days and this week's drop could exceed 4%, which is expected to be the biggest weekly drop since June 2021. Powell's hawkish comments signal a "major shift" in the Fed's outlook for rate cuts Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said on Thursday that the central bank does not need to "rush" to lower interest rates due to the strength of the US economy and that the central bank will "watch carefully" to ensure that certain measures of inflation remain at acceptable levels. “The economy is not sending any signals that we need to rush to cut interest rates,” Powell said in a speech to business leaders in Dallas. The strength of the economy we are seeing now allows us to make prudent decisions.” In an upbeat assessment of the current situation, Powell said domestic economic growth in the US is “so far better than in other major economies around the world”. Powell reiterated that the Fed's path to adjusting interest rates will depend on upcoming data and developments in the economic outlook. On Asian markets on Friday (November 15), spot gold maintained a recovery trend during the day and gold prices are currently at around 2,570 USD/ounce. Today, the US Census Bureau will release retail sales data for October, which is expected to cause significant volatility in the gold market over the weekend. Surveys show U.S. retail sales are expected to rise 0.3% monthly in October, after rising 0.4% in September. US retail sales data is known as "big data" because it typically has a larger impact on financial markets, potentially influencing the trend of assets such as the US dollar and gold. If US retail sales data is stronger than expected, the US Dollar could strengthen, thus continuing to pressure gold. On the other hand, the weaker-than-expected retail sales report will stimulate gold prices to recover further after the recent long series of declines. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold recovered without reaching the horizontal support level of 2,528 USD. Note to readers in yesterday's edition. Although gold has recovered to return to above 2,548 USD, in general its short-term trend is still inclined to the downside with the price channel as the short-term trend. In addition, the technical recovery prospect is also encountering some resistance from the lower edge of the price channel, the resistance level of 2,588 USD and the 0.786% Fibonacci retracement level. On the other hand, the Relative Strength Index has not yet reached support from the selling area, so there may still be room for a decline in momentum ahead. The main trend of gold in the short and medium term is still downtrend, the recoveries are only considered short-term adjustments and the notable points will be listed as follows. Support: 2,550 – 2,548USD Resistance: 2,581 – 2,588 – 2,600USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2621 - 2619⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2625 →Take Profit 1 2614 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2609 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2519 - 2521⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2515 →Take Profit 1 2526 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2531
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Xayah_trading
XAUUSD First touch on the MA100 (1d) in 9 months! BUY!Gold hit today the MA100 (1d) level for the first time since February 15th 2024, exactly after 9 whole months. This by itself is a very strong long term buy signal but it's not the only one. Today's low was also at the bottom of the Channel Up that started on the date mentioned above. Trading Plan: 1. Buy on the current market price. Targets: 1. 2790 (Resistance 1 = previous High). Tips: 1. The RSI (1d) is almost oversold, as it was on February 14th 2024, the day before the last MA100 (1d) touch. This is also a very strong bullish signal. Please like, follow and comment!!
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by TradingBrokersView
1
GOLD → Correction ahead of PPI before falling to $2470FX:XAUUSD on the news continues its bearish rally. The price is breaking the structure of 2547. A false breakdown and counter-trend correction may form before PPI and Powell's speech... Demand for the dollar rises at the expense of gold. Trump-led euphoria continues to support the index despite relatively weak CPI data and the stance of Fed policymakers. In the medium term, the focus is on the next Fed rate meeting. The most likely scenario is a 0.25% rate cut. Bulls in gold are likely to have to reassess their medium-term targets as the dollar's rise caused by Trump's trade is outweighed despite the Fed's relatively dovish stance. For today, all eyes are on Powell's speech and PPI and jobless claims. Technically, gold is testing the important level of 2546 as part of a strong decline. A false breakdown and correction is possible. Resistance levels: 2577, 2589, 2595 Support levels: 2546, 2531, 2500 Before the news, a rebound to the imbalance zone or local resistance may be formed in the hope to win back the losing positions of those who have not yet managed to leave the market. I expect that after the correction the price will continue its decline. Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ FX:XAUUSD ;) Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
11
GOLD fell despite CPI supporting interest rate cutsOANDA:XAUUSD became a "victim" of Trump and the price plummeted to 2,564 USD/oz. CNN and NBC confirmed that Donald Trump has won three consecutive victories and the Republican Party maintains a slim majority in the US House of Representatives. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October was in line with expectations and the Fed's December interest rate cut was priced in, boosting crypto buying. What any trader needs to do to survive in the "Trump Environment" is to follow "Trump" X because each of his status lines will directly impact the financial market. News Bloomberg reports that Republicans maintain a slim majority in the U.S. House of Representatives, giving Trump and his party unified control of elected government agencies and limiting potential restrictions on with the power of the incoming president. CNN and NBC News reported Wednesday that the Republican victory significantly dampened Democrats' hopes of curbing Trump's influence in next year's bitter showdown over trillions of dollars in government spending. Tax provisions are about to expire. Trump wants to extend tax cuts approved during his first term and add new measures he promised during the campaign. US CPI is in line with market expectations, the Fed is certain to cut interest rates in December The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the US seasonally adjusted annual CPI rate in October was 2.6%, marking a recovery in inflation from September, when the CPI increased 2.4%. % compared to the same period last year. Core inflation, excluding food and energy items, increased 3.3% year-on-year, which may better reflect the underlying inflation trend. Both results were in line with market expectations, and this was the first inflation report since the US election. Although inflation tends to cool down, US President-elect Trump took office during a sensitive period for the US economy, causing gold to remain suppressed. The Fed's goal is to lower interest rates to ensure the economy continues to grow healthily without causing inflation. Federal Reserve members are tempering market expectations for an aggressive central bank easing cycle, but the market remains fairly confident of another 25 basis point rate cut in December. . Traders are currently pricing in around an 83% chance the Fed will cut interest rates in December, compared with 60% ahead of the US inflation data. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold has broken below the price channel to facilitate a new bearish cycle with a near-term target around $2,548 rather than the $2,528 level noted by readers in the previous issue. . Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index continues to point down with a steep slope without reaching the oversold area, showing that the bearish outlook is still ahead and the recovery phase may not yet occur. Gold had had 4 consecutive days of strong declines before that. During the day, the technical outlook for gold remains bearish with notable points listed as follows. Support: 2,548 – 2,528USD Resistance: 2,580 – 2,588 – 2,600USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2644 - 2642⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2648 →Take Profit 1 2637 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2632 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2546 - 2548⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2542 →Take Profit 1 2553 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2558
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Xayah_trading
2
Money flows out of GOLD ETFs, market focusAs the US Dollar strengthens ahead of the release of economic data and comments from Federal Reserve officials, these comments could provide insight into the direction of interest rates under the Trump administration. On Tuesday (November 12), OANDA:XAUUSD dropped to the lowest level in nearly 2 months. By the time this article was completed, gold was trading around 2,611 USD/oz, equivalent to an increase of 0.50% on the day. Dollar index TVC:DXY rose to a 4-month high, making gold more expensive. The US Dollar is expected to benefit from a number of policies of Republican President-elect Donald Trump, which could keep US interest rates relatively high for a long time, which will be an unfavorable environment for gold. not profitable. Wall Street's major indexes hit new closing highs on Monday, boosted by stocks poised to benefit from Trump's potential fiscal policies. Bitcoin also extended its record rally, while short-term US Treasury yields rose to a 3-1/2-month high. Market focus has now shifted to October consumer price index data released on Wednesday, producer price index and weekly jobless claims data released on Thursday and payroll data. Retail sales numbers are released on Friday. Several other central bank governors are expected to speak this week, including Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Gold ETFs experience large outflows The World Gold Council said in its latest report that the US election results have influenced gold's impressive gains since the beginning of the year. Reasons include continued strength in bond yields and the US dollar, risk-on sentiment in the stock market, a push for cryptocurrencies and easing geopolitical tensions. The World Gold Council said global gold ETFs are expected to fall by $809 million (12 tons) in the first week of November, with most of the outflows from North America. In addition, COMEX's net inventory also decreased by 74 tons, down 8% compared to the previous week. The world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund (ETF) saw its biggest weekly outflow in more than two years last week following Trump's decisive victory in The election prompted traders to take profits. According to data compiled by Bloomberg, outflows from the SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, surpassed $1 billion last week, the largest weekly outflow since July 2022. Price Spot gold decreased by 1.9% over the same period. The ETF's total gold holdings decreased by 0.4%, down for the second consecutive week. In times of political and economic uncertainty, investors often seek the safety of gold. Last month, they sought the safety of gold amid growing expectations that the US presidential election would be a hotly contested one. But with Trump winning key battleground states and Republicans taking control of the Senate, the results clearly prompted investors to exit their positions to take profits. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold recovered from the key support level highlighted by readers in yesterday's edition at $2,588 and returned to the price channel. The fact that gold is trading above the 0.786% Fibonacci retracement level gives it scope for a recovery but the current position will remain unchanged with all conditions tilting towards a bearish outlook. Gold's recovery may continue with a short-term target of around 2,640 USD, the price point of the 0.618% Fibonacci retracement level. However, a new bearish cycle will be opened once gold falls below $2,588 and the target is then around $2,548 in the short term, more than $2,528. As long as gold remains in the price channel below EMA21, the main trend will still favor the bearish outlook, rallies should be considered short-term corrections. During the day, the outlook for a recovery with a main bearish bias will be highlighted by the following technical levels. Support: 2,600 – 2,588USD Resistance: 2,627 – 2,640USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2661 - 2659⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2665 →Take Profit 1 2654 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2649 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2559 - 2561⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2555 →Take Profit 1 2566 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2571
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD → The bearish rally is intensifying. Next, 2500-2400?FX:XAUUSD accelerates its fall and updates the low, testing the zone below 2600. Panic? Profit-taking? Are buyers turning around? CPI and PPI ahead, is there still hope? Chinese authorities have played a negative role this time with their weak support for markets (traders are wary of potential trade tariffs that Trump may impose), which is generally reflected in the gold price in part. Theoretically, any attempts to rise in gold may be limited, due to the rise of the dollar, which is feeling support from the market amid the excitement of Trump and fading expectations of future Fed rate cuts. Ahead is the consumer price index, which could have an impact on the Fed's future rate path and the US dollar. Technically, gold is trying to break out of a key range breaking support. If a false break of 2604 is formed, a small correction to resistance may form. Resistance levels: 2626, 2637 Support levels: 2604, 2569, 2546 If the bears keep the price below 2605-2600, the decline may intensify, but since the price is testing strong support, a false breakdown and a correction may be formed as a primary reaction, for example to 2626-2637 (0.5 fibo) before a further decline. Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ FX:XAUUSD ;) Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
24
GOLD → A change in structure and a change in trend. CPI ahead!FX:XAUUSD is turning around. The daily session closes below 2604 and the breakdown of the global structure confirms the bearish nature of the market. The fight for the key 2600 zone continues... Trump's tough policies could slow the Fed's easing cycle, the dollar would then continue to strengthen at the expense of gold... There is another Fed rate meeting in December and obviously the question is: either 0.25% or hold. All eyes are on the CPI, the data will determine whether the Fed will continue its rate cut trajectory after December. A downside surprise in CPI could reinforce dovish expectations for the Fed. Conversely, a stronger inflation report could trigger a change in the regulator's stance. Any reaction to the news could be short-lived as attention immediately shifts to Thursday, PPI and Powell's... Resistance levels: 2616, 2626, 2637 ! Key level: 2604 Support levels: 2590, 2569 The fight for 2604 continues, if the bears can keep the defense below this zone, we should expect a fall. But, there is a high probability of correction on the background of news volatility and retest of resistance 2626-2637 before the further fall Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ FX:XAUUSD ;) Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
6
Gold Markets Hold Steady: Analyzing Trends and ProjectionsAs I compose this article, gold is trading at $2,609, experiencing modest gains throughout the day on Wednesday. It has successfully maintained a position above the $2,600 threshold, recovering from its lowest point since September 20, which occurred just the previous day. The US Dollar (USD) retains a bullish momentum, driven by speculation surrounding President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed expansionary economic policies, which are expected to ignite inflation and potentially limit the Federal Reserve's ability to implement significant interest rate cuts. This favorable outlook is supporting higher US Treasury bond yields, which in turn bolster the USD and place a ceiling on the price of the non-yielding precious metal. From a technical standpoint, the current market landscape appears somewhat ambiguous. Prices are rebounding into a demand zone where institutional investors, often referred to as 'smart money,' seem to be strategically accumulating long positions, while retail investors continue to maintain a bullish outlook. Our projections suggest a possible retracement coming in December. Additionally, uncertainties surrounding Trump's proposed trade tariffs and their implications for the global economy are moderating investor enthusiasm for riskier assets, especially in light of the disappointing fiscal stimulus measures from China. This situation consequently provides support for gold prices, which appear to have broken a three-day streak of losses. Market attention is now fixed on the upcoming US consumer inflation data, particularly the pivotal Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. The results could significantly shape expectations concerning the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy direction and dictate the short-term trajectory for gold prices. In light of today's developments, we will assess the situation based on the incoming news and consider potential long positions accordingly. ✅ Please share your thoughts about GOLD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by FOREXN1
2
XAUUSD: Bottom of the Channel Up, RSI almost oversold. Buy.Gold turned bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 37.369, MACD = 1.240, ADX = 48.026) as is closed yesterday below the 1D MA50 for the first time in more than 4 months (July 2nd). The downtrend is the bearish wave of the May 20th Channel Up and is so far the strongest of the pattern. Technically Gold is a buy for as long as the 1D MA100 holds. Also the 1D RSI is the closest it's been to the 30.000 oversold level since October 6th 2023. Naturally that makes it a strong buy opportunity. Our target is the 0.618 Fibonacci extension (TP = 2,705). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by InvestingScope
GOLD: Navigating the Effects of Inflation and Treasury YieldsGold prices have declined for the second consecutive day, influenced by a variety of factors. The ongoing optimism surrounding Donald Trump's trade policies continues to bolster the US Dollar (USD), which is exerting downward pressure on the precious metal. The price of gold (XAU/USD) is building on the significant losses incurred last week and remains under selling pressure as trading commences on Monday, influenced by the prevailing bullish sentiment towards the USD. The promise of expansive economic policies from President-elect Trump has kept the USD near a four-month high reached last week, which is a significant factor dampening demand for gold. Additionally, Trump's proposed 10% tariff on all US imports is anticipated to ignite inflationary pressures, limiting the Federal Reserve's (Fed) ability to implement aggressive rate cuts. This environment is supportive of rising US Treasury bond yields, further incentivizing investors to move away from the non-yielding gold. From a technical standpoint, we are eyeing potential scalp opportunities near the first demand zone around 2,600. The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report indicates that retail investors are taking long positions, whereas institutional investors—often referred to as "smart money"—are positioned inversely. The strengthening dollar and our analysis point to a likely bearish trend ahead. Additionally, we have previously opened a short position in Silver (details available on our TradingView profile) as we anticipated this type of scenario unfolding for precious metals. In summary, the combination of robust USD performance and inflationary expectations looks set to keep gold under pressure in the near term. ✅ Please share your thoughts about XAU/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FOREXN1
1
GOLD is under pressure as the Middle East cools downOn the Asian market today Tuesday (November 12), spot gold has basically stabilized after yesterday's decline and the gold price is currently at about 2,619 USD/ounce as of the time this article was published. complete. OANDA:XAUUSD Spot delivery has had a large decline as demand for US Dollars continues to increase. Trump's victory in the 2024 election and signs that the Republicans will take full control of Congress have boosted the US Dollar and this will create pressure on gold as a non-producing asset. Yields are directly correlated with the US Dollar. This was brought to the attention of readers many times in publications evaluating the case of Trump winning the US Presidential election. News point The latest data from the US "Capitol Hill" shows that the US Republican Party now wins 218 seats in the House of Representatives, more than half of them, and has won control of the House of Representatives. This means that the Republican Party has won comprehensively, taking control of the House, Senate and the presidential election. On November 5, the United States held its four-year general election. In addition to electing a new president, this general election also re-elected all 435 seats in the US House of Representatives and 34 out of 100 seats in the Senate. To become the majority party in the House of Representatives, it needs at least 218 seats. In addition to the US, tensions in the Middle East also seem to be easing, which also reduces market risk aversion and negatively impacts gold prices. Israel on Monday said it was making progress in ceasefire talks with Lebanon and suggested Russia could play a role in preventing Hezbollah from rearming through Syria, Reuters reported. Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar said Israel's war against Hezbollah is not over. He said the main challenge to any ceasefire agreement would be implementation, despite "some progress" in negotiations. Sa'ar said Israel is working with the United States to reach a ceasefire agreement. He said Israel wants Hezbollah to stay north of the Litani River and cannot rearm. The basic principle of any ceasefire agreement must be that Hezbollah cannot bring weapons from Syria into Lebanon. Israel Today reported on Sunday that significant progress had been made in diplomatic negotiations on a Lebanese ceasefire proposal, which would require Hezbollah to withdraw north of the Litani River and ban deployments near the Israeli border , while the Israel Defense Forces will return to the international border. About monetary policy The Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points last week to a range of 4.5%-4.75%. According to CME Group's "Fed Watch" tool, traders now predict a 68.5% chance the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December, compared with about 80% before Trump's election victory. Trump's fiscal plan could reignite inflation and widen the budget deficit, while traders have reduced bets on how much the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates. This week, the US economic situation will affect gold prices. Traders will be watching for comments from Federal Reserve officials as well as the release of key data such as consumer and manufacturer inflation and retail sales. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold continues its downtrend with the price channel noticed by readers in previous publications as a short-term trend. The rallies were very weak as the technical structure tilted completely towards the downside. The nearest resistance is noticed at the 0.618% Fibonacci retracement level, while the Relative Strength Index is pointing down from 50 and is still far from the oversold level, showing that there is still wide downside space ahead. On the other hand, the nearest support level at the 0.786% Fibonacci retracement level is also the location of the original price level of 2,600 USD. Once this level is broken below gold, there will be conditions to continue falling even more with the following target. That's about $2,588 in the short term, more than the 1% Fibonacci price point of $2,548. During the day, the technical outlook leans towards the bearish trend and notable points will be listed as follows. Support: 2,610 – 2,600USD Resistance: 2,640USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2661 - 2659⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2665 →Take Profit 1 2654 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2649 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2599 - 2601⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2595 →Take Profit 1 2606 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2611
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD → Buyers stop believing in gold ... Are the bears coming? FX:XAUUSD after Powell's support reaches a local high of 2710, but buyers do not let the price near the risk zone. The price is returning to the correction phase and preparing to update the local lows The correction started after the strengthening of interest in the dollar, which is growing at the expense of gold because of Trump's victory. The excitement has not subsided yet, it may continue for a few weeks. The 0.25% cut in interest rates was slightly taken into account by the market, but still supported the metal, but short-term. The market is also disappointed with China, especially with the actions of the authorities towards the country's economy. In general, the fundamental background is negative and it is worth considering this information in your trading. Ahead of the US CPI, which will be published on Wednesday. Technically, the price is turning around and intends to test the liquidity zones located at the bottom... Resistance levels: 2680, 2685, 2700 Support levels: 2665, 2652, 2637 Emphasis on 2665. A pre-breakdown consolidation is forming. If the price breaks this support, selling may intensify. I do not exclude one more attempt to retest the resistance, for example 2680-2685 before further falling. In general, both fundamentally and technically, the market feels the priority towards the bears... Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ FX:XAUUSD ;) Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
14
XAUUSD trading plan with focus on the 1D MA50.Gold (XAUUSD) is on the 2nd straight red day following Friday's rejection, which is in contrast to Thursday's promising rebound and green 1D candle it showed on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). Technically, as long as the 1D MA50 holds, the trend remains bullish within the 5-month Channel Up and our 2800 Target remains intact. As you can see, especially if we observe the 1D RSI fractals, it is a similar (a-e) sequence to the February 14 - May 01 2024 uptrend. Right now it appears that this is phase (e) on the 1D MA50 with the RSI in the lower levels of neutrality (almost bearish). If on the other hand Gold closes a 1D candle below the 1D MA50 (which will be the first time since July 02, more than 4 months), we will take the small loss on the buy and short instead, targeting the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), with a current Target at 2560 (but can change to adapt on the 1D MA100). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by TradingShot
3