SELL XAUUSD | GCYou can sell on XAUUSD | GC after that it grabbed the LQ and target the same levels as mine.
Gc1
GOLD stable, pay attention to data and upcoming eventsOn the Asian market on Tuesday (December 17), OANDA:XAUUSD Spot delivery is basically stable, gold price is currently around 2,651 USD/ounce and there are almost no significant fluctuations.
In the coming days, the Federal Reserve, Bank of England and Bank of Japan will hold monetary policy meetings to decide on interest rates, while also hinting at what 2025 might hold.
The Fed is expected to cut base interest rates by 25 basis points. The change has long been priced in, meaning the focus will be on the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), or Dotplot chart, in which policymakers detail their expectations on inflation, growth, interest rates and employment. These will have a significant impact on the US Dollar.
CME's "Fed Tracker" shows traders see a 95.4% chance the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday.
Today (Tuesday), the US Census Bureau will release retail sales data for November, which is expected to trigger market volatility during this trading day.
Surveys show U.S. retail sales are expected to rise 0.5% monthly in November, after rising 0.4% in October.
US retail sales data typically has a greater impact on financial markets, potentially influencing the trend of assets such as the US dollar and gold.
If US retail sales data is stronger than expected, the US Dollar could strengthen, thus pushing gold prices back down; On the other hand, a weaker-than-expected retail sales report will stimulate a recovery in gold prices.
In addition, on the same day, the NAHB home price index in the US will be announced for December, which is expected to increase slightly to 47 from the previous value of 46.
In terms of technical structure, not much has changed so readers can review the previous weekly publication linked below.
In the coming time, the technical chart of gold prices will be noticed by some notable patterns as follows.
Support: 2,644 – 2,634USD
Resistance: 2,663 – 2,676 – 2,693USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2680 - 2678⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2684
→Take Profit 1 2673
↨
→Take Profit 2 2668
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2621 - 2623⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2617
→Take Profit 1 2628
↨
→Take Profit 2 2633
TP REACHED ON XAUUSD | GCEarlier this morning I posted to buy on XAUUSD | GC, and the market reached our tp with a profit of 1000$ on futures, now we'll expect the market to make a reversal to ride it again and get to a lower point.
Follow for more!
GOLD → Correction before a possible fall FX:XAUUSD is moving into the correction phase amid last week's economic data. The price is returning to the channel and in general confirms the bearish character on the market.
Markets are ready for a 0.25% interest rate cut, but traders are waiting for hints on the Fed's stance: whether the Fed will continue to cut rates, go into a wait-and-see mode, or hint at a rate hike based on last week's economic data. Traders are eagerly awaiting the Fed's decision, which will be announced on December 18. The gold price is also receiving support from renewed tensions in the Middle East and political turmoil in South Korea.
Technically, after the false breakout of 2721 a deep correction is forging, which generally develops into a localized downtrend. The price is approaching the panic zone 2615-2600. At the Asian session a correction is forming and it is worth paying attention to the key resistance zones
Resistance levels: 2667, 2675, 2685
Support levels: 2646, 2633
The price is heading towards the imbalance zone within the correction. A quick approach and retest of resistance could trigger a rebound. Traders may enter the phase of profit taking before strong news
Regards R. Linda!
XAUUSD still at the bottom of the 1 year Channel Up. Strong Buy.Gold (XAUUSD) has been trading within a 1-year Channel Up since the October 02 2023 weekly bottom. When it makes a technical Higher High and then pulls back, the pattern's Bearish Legs tend to be quite prolonged but at the same time always supported by the 1D MA100 (red trend-line).
The current Bearish Leg bottomed on the 1D MA100 on the week of November 11 2024 and made a technical Higher Low. Based on the previous two Higher Lows, the price may continue to consolidate until the end of the year before it breaks out again upwards but with the current level being so close to the 1D MA100, it makes it already a technical buy opportunity.
All previous Bullish Legs hit at least the 2.5 Fibonacci extension from the Higher High - Higher Low and the strongest rise has been +22.50%.
As a result, we can target $3100 as the Channel's next Higher High, which would be a +22.50% rise from the November bottom but still below the 2.5 Fibonacci extension.
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BUY XAUUSD | GC Been a while since I last posted a trade, today I’m sharing with you this trade on XAUUSD that you can take with the same TP/SL as mine.
Follow for more trades and let me know ik the comments which market you want me to post an trades on!
GOLD corrects in 2 days, still has bullish conditions next weekOANDA:XAUUSD fell as the USD held steady at its highest level in more than 2 weeks. However, the market expects the Federal Reserve will still cut interest rates next week and gold prices still have conditions for a possible increase in price.
OANDA:XAUUSD has broken multiple record highs this year, supported by Fed monetary policy, strong central bank buying and safe-haven demand.
Traders currently assess a 96% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its December 17-18 meeting.
Focus will also be on Chairman Jerome Powell's comments as market participants analyze US monetary policy in 2025, especially given President-elect Donald Trump's tariff plans , is very likely to add to inflation.
Central banks often keep interest rates high to curb inflation, thereby increasing the opportunity cost of holding unprofitable gold.
Pay special attention to the upcoming Fed interest rate decision
The Fed's monetary policy statement next week could be the last major impact for gold this year outside of unforeseen geopolitical surprises.
Next Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will announce its monetary policy decision after a two-day policy meeting. The Fed is expected to cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.25%-4.5%. The Fed will also release a revised Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), known as a Dotplot chart.
In September, SEP showed that Fed officials' median forecast for the policy rate at the end of 2025 was 3.4%. If the 2025 interest rate forecast is revised downward, i.e. cutting interest rates by more than 100 basis points, it could have a direct negative impact on the Dollar and this would push gold prices higher.
Markets will also be closely watching comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. If Powell takes a cautious approach to further policy easing, emphasizing a gradual approach, the dollar is likely to remain strong as it remains supported by President-elect Donald Trump. On the other hand, the US Dollar will come under selling pressure if Powell expresses growing concerns about the cooling labor market and its potential negative impact on the growth outlook.
Data next week
Next Thursday, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis will release the final revised data on gross domestic product (GDP) for the third quarter, and next Friday will release the personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE).
The economic calendar needs attention next week
Monday: Empire State manufacturing survey, S&P flash PMI
Tuesday: US retail sales
Wednesday: Federal Reserve monetary policy decision
Thursday: Bank of England monetary policy decision; US weekly unemployment claims;
US Q3 GDP, Philly Federal Reserve Manufacturing Survey, Existing Home Sales
Friday: Personal consumption expenditure index (PCE)
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold closed the week in a crucial position for upside as it still has bullish conditions.
Specifically, the daily chart still shows that gold prices maintain activity above EMA21 and above the technical level of 2,644 USD. Note to readers in the previous edition. In addition, the Relative Strength Index decreased but stayed above 50, which does not show any negative signals.
In the near term, if gold brings price activity back above the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement level, it will have the conditions to recover more to the $2,676 level in the short term, more than the 0.382% Fibonacci level and the original price point. 2,700 USD.
Overall, gold still has a bullish outlook. However, a negative situation is likely to appear once gold breaks below the 0.618% Fibonacci level because it will tend to retest the 0.786% Fibonacci level with a price point of 2,591USD. Therefore, open long positions will need to be protected when this situation occurs.
In the coming time, the technical chart of gold prices will be noticed by some notable patterns as follows.
Support: 2,644 – 2,634USD
Resistance: 2,663 – 2,676 – 2,693USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2680 - 2678⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2684
→Take Profit 1 2673
↨
→Take Profit 2 2668
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2621 - 2623⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2617
→Take Profit 1 2628
↨
→Take Profit 2 2633
Natural Gas | Oil | Dollar | Silver | Gold Price ForecastNatural Gas | Oil | Dollar | Silver | Gold Price Forecast
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Dec 16 - Dec 20]At the beginning of this week, OANDA:XAUUSD quite strongly from 2,627 USD/oz to 2,726 USD/oz, but then dropped sharply to 2,645 USD/oz and closed the week at 2,648 USD/oz.
The reason why international gold prices increased sharply in the first sessions of this week was because investors reacted to the fact that the People's Bank of China (PBoC) returned to buying 5 tons of gold in November after many months of temporarily stopping buying. reserve gold. Even with the six-month hiatus, the PBoC bought 34 tons of gold this year and remains one of the top central banks buying gold in 2024.
However, gold currently accounts for less than 6% of China's total foreign exchange reserves. This shows that the PBoC's room to continue buying gold reserves is still very large, especially when US-China tensions are increasingly escalating when President-elect Donald Trump threatens to impose very high tariffs on China.
However, after rising to 2,726 USD/oz earlier this week, gold prices once again fell sharply because US inflation remained persistent, affecting expectations of the FED's monetary easing cycle.
While the decision on FED monetary policy will receive more attention next Wednesday, the gold market will also receive important economic data that can impact the FED's monetary easing cycle, such as retail sales, revised third quarter GDP of the US...
📌Technically, the gold price still maintains an uptrend on the Daily technical chart, as the price is still above the EMA89 moving average. However, on the H4 chart, the movement of the moving average shows that the price is accumulating sideways, the resistance area to pay attention to is around the 2725 mark, while the important support zone is around the round resistance mark of 2600. In the coming week Many influential information can cause gold prices to fluctuate strongly beyond this sideways range.
Notable technical levels are listed below.
Support: 2,644 – 2,634USD
Resistance: 2,663 – 2,676 – 2,693USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2751 - 2749⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2755
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2579 - 2581⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2575
GOLD → False breakout and negative fundamental backgroundFX:XAUUSD is correcting after a false breakout of resistance. This is also supported by negative fundamentals. Will there be a pullback or will the decline continue?
Optimism over China's economic stimulus is waning amid growing fears of a trade war between the US and China. Expectations of a hawkish Fed interest rate next week helped boost the US dollar, leading to a corrective decline in the gold price.Markets now believe the Fed may send a hawkish signal by signaling a pause in January after PPI came in higher than expected
Technically gold is still inside the channel, consolidation continues. Focus on 2658-2660 support, below which there is a huge pool of liquidity that may not let the price down on the first try
Resistance levels: 2675, 2682, 2699
Support levels: 2658, 2636
From the support 2658 may form a correction from which will depend on the further development of events: if the correction will be small and the price will quickly return to 2658, it will increase the chances of support breakout and further fall, for example, to 2636. But, if gold can consolidate above 2682 and consolidate above the local high, the price may head for a retest of the high
Regards R. Linda!
GOLD → False breakout of resistance. Is a correction coming?FX:XAUUSD on the background of CPI on Thursday passes into a rally and realization of consolidation. The price is testing the resistance of 2721 and forms a false breakout. Traders in anticipation of PPI
After the release of CPI, there is a 90% chance that the Fed will cut rates by 0.25% next week.
Gold hit a two-week high due to the Middle East, optimism over China's economic stimulus, CPI news.
PPI and weekly jobless claims data also remain in focus, which could provide new hints on further Fed policy easing and the direction of the US dollar ahead of next week's Fed meeting. Sentiment around the Fed and risk trends will continue to play a decisive role in gold price dynamics.
Technically, the price is in a global wide flat. A false breakdown of resistance is forming and a correction may form.
Resistance levels: 2721
Support levels: 2700, 2682
The retest did not allow the bulls to pass through the resistance. In the near future the price may test the nearest support and form a bullish correction from which further growth or fall will be initiated. We should also take into account today's news
Regards R. Linda!
GOLD corrects, possibility remains optimistic as FOMC is comingOANDA:XAUUSD eased the correction significantly, which was partly due to the market taking profits after gold prices hit a five-week high and rushing to close positions ahead of next week's Federal Reserve meeting. In addition, higher US bond interest rates also affect gold prices.
OANDA:XAUUSD fell sharply on Thursday and was limited this trading day (Friday), as of press time, as traders booked profits following the release of US PPI data.
PPI data exceeded expectations, suggesting the fight against inflation may be stalling. In addition, the 10-year US Treasury bond interest rate increased slightly by 1.5 basis points to 4.289%, which also put pressure on gold.
The US producer price index (PPI) rose higher than expected in November due to soaring food costs. The U.S. Department of Labor reported on Thursday that the U.S. PPI rose 3% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month in November. Previous market expectations were 2% .6% and 0.2%.
Although Wednesday's US Consumer Price Index (CPI) was in line with expectations, it still rose at a seven-month high.
However, gold is expected to hold onto gains this week as optimism grows that the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates by 25 basis points next week. Traders' attention is turning to the prospect that the Federal Reserve may pause policy easing as early as 2025. Lower borrowing costs typically benefit gold because gold itself does not create out yield.
According to a report released by the World Gold Council (WGC) on Thursday, gold's gains are expected to slow in 2025 as concerns about growth and inflation during Donald Trump's presidency have can affect the ability to increase the price of gold.
Gold prices have risen more than 30% year-to-date and are on track for their biggest annual gain since 1979. The rapid rise has been fueled by the Federal Reserve's easing policy, demand safe-haven demand and continued buying activity by global central banks.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold has corrected but overall it still has all the conditions for a technical upside with price activity outside the channel and above the EMA21 level.
Currently, gold's uptrend is temporarily limited by resistance at $2,693, the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement price point, more than the 0.236% Fibonacci level noticed by previous readers.
On the other hand, the Relative Strength Index also maintains activity above the 50 level, which should be considered a positive signal for the bullish outlook in the near future.
As long as gold remains above the EMA21 and outside the price channel, in the short term it is still likely to increase with notable points listed below.
Support: 2,676 – 2,663 – 2,644USD
Resistance: 2,693 – 2,700 – 2,730USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2706 - 2704⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2710
→Take Profit 1 2699
↨
→Take Profit 2 2694
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2659 - 2661⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2655
→Take Profit 1 2666
↨
→Take Profit 2 2671
Interest rate expectations and geopolitics still drive GOLDOANDA:XAUUSD corrected after rising sharply as the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates next week increased significantly after the release of US CPI data.
CME Group's "FedWatch" tool shows traders see a 98.5% chance the Fed will cut another 25 basis points at its December 17-18 meeting, a significant increase from the 86% chance before CPI data is released.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.3% month-over-month and 2.7% year-over-year in November, both in line with market expectations. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones previously expected this number to increase an average of 0.3% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year.
Excluding food and energy costs, the US core CPI rose 3.3% year-on-year in November and was up 0.3% month-over-month. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones on average expect core CPI to rise 0.3% month-on-month and 3.3% year-over-year.
The market is now focusing on today's (Thursday) US Producer Price Index (PPI) data to shed more light on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut roadmap.
Geopolitical news once again boosted OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold corrected after approaching the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level and temporary upside was limited by this technical level.
However, in terms of overall structure, the gold price has enough technical conditions to increase after breaking the falling price channel and bringing the main activity above the EMA21 line. Along with that, the Relative Strength Index also rose above 50, which should be considered a positive signal for the bullish outlook of gold prices.
On the other hand, gold is likely to open a new bullish cycle when it breaks above the $2,730 level of the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement then the target is the Volume profile POC point, more so the $2,761 level and all-time highs. era established earlier.
During the day, the technical outlook for gold is bullish with notable points listed below.
Support: 2,700 – 2,693 – 2,676USD
Resistance: 2,730 – 2,742 – 2,761USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2741 - 2739⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2745
→Take Profit 1 2734
↨
→Take Profit 2 2729
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2669 - 2671⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2665
→Take Profit 1 2676
↨
→Take Profit 2 2681
GOLD just passed $2,700, pay attention to CPI dataWednesday (December 11) on the Asian market, OANDA:XAUUSD Spot delivery increased again in the short term. Gold price has just surpassed the important milestone of 2,700 USD/ounce, reaching the highest level of the day as of the time this article was completed at 2,703.65 USD/ounce.
Attention is turning to the US consumer price index (CPI) today (Wednesday) and the producer price index (PPI) on Thursday, both data will be important in influencing the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates.
According to market surveys, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to increase 0.3% in November, with year-on-year increases expected to be 2.7% and 3.3%, respectively. %.
Overall and core producer prices in the United States are expected to increase 0.2% month-on-month in November, with year-over-year increases of 2.6% and 3.2%, respectively.
CPI data in line with expectations is unlikely to hinder interest rate cuts, but if the data shows inflation progress is slowing, the likelihood of a third consecutive rate cut by the Fed may decrease.
The Chicago Mercantile Exchange's "FedWatch Tool" shows that the futures market expects an 86% chance that Fed Chairman Powell and his colleagues will cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points at their meeting on August 17-18. /12.
In addition, gold prices also skyrocketed when the Chinese central bank resumed gold purchasing activities. Meanwhile, the geopolitical situation plays an important role and still has many potential risks after Syrian President Bashar al-Assad was overthrown.
Gold is considered a safe investment during times of economic and geopolitical uncertainty and tends to appreciate in low interest rate environments.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold has initial conditions for a bullish outlook as it broke out of the falling price channel after a long period of sideways accumulation.
On the other hand, the Relative Strength Index also rose above the 50 level, which should be considered a positive signal for the future growth prospects as it will move towards the 75-100 area. With that, EMA21 which was the previous resistance has now become the most notable support.
Gold prices are pushed above the original price level of 2,700 USD, keeping price activity above the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level will provide conditions for a new bull cycle with the target then around 2,730 USD where the Fibonacci retracement is located. 0.236%, more than the Volume Profile POC level.
During the day, gold has all the technical conditions to increase in price and is temporarily limited by the original price of 2,700 USD. The notable points will be listed as follows.
Support: 2,693 – 2,676 – 2,663USD
Resistance: 2,700 – 2,730USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2721 - 2719⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2725
→Take Profit 1 2714
↨
→Take Profit 2 2709
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2659 - 2661⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2655
→Take Profit 1 2666
↨
→Take Profit 2 2671
GOLD → Retest 2720. CPI ahead, what to expect?FX:XAUUSD is coming out of a long consolidation and testing 2688. Bulls are trying to keep the defense above this zone, but the risks are increased by the publication of CPI...
Gold was boosted by the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East and renewed buying of gold reserves by China. Amid looming tariffs announced by Trump and weakening labor market conditions, the US inflation report will be crucial in determining the Fed's easing trajectory in the coming months.
Further upside for gold prices hinges on the release of US CPI data, which is likely to set the pace for US Fed action early next year.
Technically, gold is heading towards broad range resistance as well as the 2720 liquidity zone. The chances of reaching the target are high, but a sharp approach and high news volatility could trigger a false breakout.
Resistance levels: 2705, 2720
Support levels: 2688, 2675, 2658
The CPI data may trigger both a rise in the dollar and a deep correction, depending on the interpretation of the current US economy. Gold may react accordingly, but it all depends on the actual data.
Regards R. Linda!
GOLD → Breaking through channel resistance. Growth attemptGOLD is coming out of the channel. Bulls are trying to take the situation into their own hands and keep the defense above 2665. The metal has a chance for local return and growth to 2690 - 2720.
Growing geopolitical tension in the Middle East (Syrian government collapse) compensates local growth of the dollar, which is generally favorable for the metal.
But, risks of dollar growth remain on the background of inflation growth in the U.S., which in general can strengthen the hawkish position of the Fed policy makers on the interest rate.
At the moment all attention is focused on CPI / PPI. Profit-taking is possible due to high risks.
Gold is coming out of the local channel, but is still trapped inside the global channel. Price may test the zone of interest before important economic data.
Support levels: 2660, 2655, 2636
Resistance levels: 2673, 2688, 2721
The breakout took place and the metal is trying to go up. The target is 2688. But we should be careful, because geopolitical tensions, upcoming economic data may cause corrections and profit taking
Regards R. Linda!
GOLD increased in the short term, approaching an important levelOn the Asian market, OANDA:XAUUSD Spot delivery suddenly increased sharply in the short term. Gold price is once again close to the edge of the price channel, a relatively "dangerous" position for technical bearish expectations. Currently the increase is about 7 USD during the day and gold is trading at 2,667 USD/oz as of the time this article was completed.
OANDA:XAUUSD spiked on Monday, mainly due to the People's Bank of China resuming gold purchases after a six-month pause and significantly increasing market expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next week , further promoting optimism.
Heavy central bank buying has been one of the main drivers pushing gold prices to new highs this year, along with monetary policy easing and geopolitical tensions.
CME Group's "FedWatch Tool" shows an 87% chance the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points next week, up from just under 70% last week.
Zero-coupon gold performs strongly in low interest rate environments and often attracts investors during times of political and economic uncertainty.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
The current position of the technical price of gold in general has not broken the bearish outlook with the price channel still holding strong, however, gold also has initial conditions for the possibility of price increase.
With EMA21 now the closest support having been broken above yesterday's trading session. Meanwhile, the RSI Relative Strength Index is also trying to move above the 50 level. The fact that the RSI can maintain operations above the 50 level is considered a positive signal for the bullish outlook.
During the day, the technical outlook for gold prices is still quite neutral as it is not completely tilted towards a specific trend, with the price channel still being the current main trend. In case the price channel is broken on gold there is a slight upward trend with the target then around 2,693 USD the price point of the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement, more than the original price of 2,700 USD.
Along with the above analysis, notable points will be listed as follows.
Support: 2,663 – 2,644 – 2,634USD
Resistance: 2,676 – 2,693 – 2,700USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2686 - 2684⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2690
→Take Profit 1 2679
↨
→Take Profit 2 2674
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2644 - 2646⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2640
→Take Profit 1 2651
↨
→Take Profit 2 2656
GOLD → Resistance Retest. False breakthrough?FX:XAUUSD lingers inside the consolidation and channel 2660 - 2615. Technically, speculators are confused. The fundamental background is mixed. What's next?
Focus on the escalating conflict in Syria, which has led to the overthrow of the Assad government and the end of the long-running Civil War. Risks regarding the Middle East are still quite high despite the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon.
Fundamentally, despite Friday's better than expected NFP, markets are 80% likely to expect a 0.25% Fed interest rate cut. In the week ahead, all eyes are on economic data such as CPI and PPI.
Technically, I don't see any reason for the price to break out of this consolidation. Accordingly, I expect a false breakout with a high degree of probability.
Resistance levels: 2655, 2660, 2667
Support levels: 2636, 2615
The price has passed 0.85% since the opening of the session. There are no reasons for the resistance breakout. There is also no potential for a breakout. Accordingly, based on the available data, there is a high probability of a decline from the key resistance zone.
Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ FX:XAUUSD ;)
Regards R. Linda!
XAUUSD consolidating awaiting the bullish break-out.Gold (XAUUSD) has been trading within a Channel Up pattern, with its most recent Higher Low being priced on the 1D MA100 (green trend-line). Since November 25, it has been stuck in range within the 1D MA100 and the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
As pre the RSI, this is a consolidation before the bullish break-out that will confirm the new Bullish Leg. A similar RSI consolidation around its MA trend-line was last seen during Gold's last Higher Low formation (June 07 - 27).
The break-outs Target was Resistance 1, so that is our Target again (2790). If however for any reason the price closes a 1D candle below the 1D MA100, we will be quick to take the small loss and on the counter go short, targeting the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) at 2500.
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All Stars Aligned: Bitcoin, Gold, Fiat, and DebtThis post explores the idea that Bitcoin, often referred to as "digital gold," might one day replace gold as the preferred store of value.
Gold’s price (shown in yellow) has traditionally been sensitive to inflation, which is influenced by money printing, as indicated by the US M2 money supply (shown in white on the chart). Geopolitical and economic insecurity also drives demand for gold, the "safe-haven" metal. To add further context, I've also included US debt (shown in red).
The chart reveals that the market seems to have found some form of equilibrium at current levels, with gold’s price finally tracking the M2 money supply and debt parameters closely. Interestingly, Bitcoin (shown in orange) has mirrored this behavior in a similar fast-paced manner.
Around the $3,000 mark for gold and near $100,000 for Bitcoin, both assets are aligning with the money supply and debt trends. This suggests that any further price increases could be limited unless additional money is printed or debt increases. Of course, a Black Swan event could disrupt this equilibrium at any time.
I also used TradingView’s Correlation Coefficient tool to examine the relationship between Bitcoin and gold. The correlation is impressively high at 0.87, indicating an almost perfect alignment between the two assets.
The chart supports the idea that Bitcoin is tracking gold closely, strengthening the notion that Bitcoin could indeed be positioning itself as the "digital gold" of the future.
Let me know your thoughts in the comments below!
Ending a sideway week, pay attention to CPI dataDuring the Asian trading session on Monday (December 9), OANDA:XAUUSD Spot delivery rose significantly then fell back, with gold prices hitting an intraday high of $2,650.62/ounce on the Asian market. Gold prices have now dropped and are trading at 2,636 USD/ounce.
Bloomberg reported that China's central bank increased its gold reserves for the first time in seven months and that the rapid collapse of the Syrian government further undermined stability in the Middle East. These two factors boosted gold prices on Monday but of course it only had a very short-term impact.
The People's Bank of China released data on December 7 showing that China's gold reserves at the end of November 2024 were 72.96 million ounces and at the end of October were 72.8 million ounces. As of April this year, China's central bank had increased its gold reserves for 18 consecutive months, helping support rising gold prices.
However, the Chinese central bank's purchases (about 5 tons) are relatively small compared to monthly purchases since the beginning of this year.
Traders watched developments in Syria over the weekend after President Bashar al-Assad fled as rebels took control of the capital Damascus.
The United States struck dozens of Islamic State targets in central Syria on Sunday, as President Joe Biden warned that Assad's fall could lead to a resurgence of Islamic extremism.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
Although gold has had a week of stable price fluctuations with mostly sideways accumulation, in general on the daily chart it still moves with the main trend leaning towards the possibility of price decline.
With the main trend being noticed by price channel and pressure from EMA21 along with the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement level and horizontal resistance of 2,644USD in the short term. On the other hand, the relative strength index (RSI) is moving sideways below the 50 level, which can be considered a negative signal for gold technically.
In the near term, if gold takes its price action below the 0.618% Fibonacci retracement level, it could fall a bit further to $2,606 – $2,600 in the short term. Additionally, a new bearish cycle is likely to be opened once the $2,600 raw price level is broken below, confirmed by price activity below the 0.786% Fibonacci level followed by a target of around $2,538.
As long as gold remains within the price channel, below the EMA21 and below the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement, it remains bearish on the daily chart, and the highlights are listed below.
Support: 2,606 – 2,600USD
Resistance: 2,644 – 2,663USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2686 - 2684⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2690
→Take Profit 1 2679
↨
→Take Profit 2 2674
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2589 - 2591⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2585
→Take Profit 1 2596
↨
→Take Profit 2 2601
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Dec 09 - Dec 13]Last week, international OANDA:XAUUSD almost went sideways in a range from 2,613 - 2,657 USD/oz.
The US economy created 227,000 jobs in November, slightly surpassing economists' forecasts. At the same time, wages increased faster than expected. However, the unemployment rate increased again to 4.2%. However, these data show that the US labor market has been tending to recover, creating momentum for the FED to consider delaying interest rate cuts in the context of higher inflation, especially is when Mr. Trump is about to take office as President of the United States.
Thus, there may not be much room for gold prices to increase because the FED cuts interest rates. Therefore, gold prices will need additional catalysts from geopolitical factors, central banks increasing gold purchases, etc.
Short-term gold prices in general and next week's gold prices in particular will still be in a state of tension between concerns about escalating geopolitical tensions and Mr. Trump's strong tariff measures, causing US Treasury bond yields to increase. , creating strength for the USD and limiting the rise in gold prices.
📌Technically, on the H4 chart, we can see that the moving average ema89 is moving sideways, the gold price continues to accumulate sideways in a narrow range. Accordingly, the resistance level to pay attention to is around the 2720 mark, the support level to pay attention to is around the 2535 mark. Gold prices will create a clear trend when breaking through these two resistance levels.
Notable technical levels are listed below.
Support: 2,600 – 2,606USD
Resistance: 2,663 – 2,644USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2721 - 2719⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2725
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2534 - 2536⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2530
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