XAUUSD This is the level to look for a break-out.Gold (XAUUSD) has been trading within a Channel Up since the October 30 2024 High, which then transitioned inside it into a Bullish Megaphone. The recent May 15 rebound took place on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which has been the pattern's Support since basically the start of the year (January 08 2025).
Today however we see this rebound taking a pause on the Lower Highs trend-line that started on the April 22 High and until it breaks we can't speculate on a bullish price action as it is more likely to test again the 1D MA50, if not break the pattern downwards.
If however Gold closes a 1D candle above the Lower Highs trend-line, we will turn bullish again, targeting 3700 (+18.29% from the bottom, similar to the previous Bullish Leg).
Notice also that the 1D MACD just completed a Bullish Cross, which favors the buyer's case.
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GOLD rises impressively after mid-May declineUS President Trump once again used tariffs and the market's risk-off sentiment suddenly heated up. OANDA:XAUUSD jumped nearly 2% on Friday and the weekly gain reached nearly 5%.
OANDA:XAUUSD has grown impressively after a sharp decline in mid-May, taking advantage of safe-haven flows, the recovery was mainly due to growing investor concerns about the sustainability of US government debt. The market will likely continue to react to headlines surrounding the difficult US fiscal situation, trade relations and geopolitics.
On Friday local time, US President Trump said on his social media platform "Real Social" that he proposed to impose a 50% tariff on the European Union from June 1. Trump wrote that the main purpose of the establishment of the European Union was to "take advantage of the United States on trade". In addition, on Friday local time, Trump posted on "Real Social" that he had long told Apple CEO Tim Cook that he expected Apple's iPhones sold in the United States to be produced and manufactured in the United States, not in India or anywhere else. Trump said that otherwise, Apple would have to pay at least a 25% tariff to the United States.
Assessing the situation surrounding Trump
"Trump has been vocal in the past 24 hours, threatening to impose 50% tariffs on the European Union starting June 1, imposing major sanctions on Apple and taking on Harvard University, all of which have weighed on stocks but boosted gold prices.
Recurrent tariff concerns, coupled with low liquidity ahead of the long weekend, could exacerbate volatility."
Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold has achieved its initial upside target at $3,371 which is the technical confluence of the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement with the upper edge of the price channel after receiving support from the confluence of the EMA21 with the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement.
In the short term, if gold breaks $3,371 it will tend to continue its bullish trend with the next target being $3,400 in the short term, more so than the last $3,435 which is the all-time high of $3,500.
As long as gold remains within/above the channel, the overall trend outlook is bullish, and the immediate support is currently around the $3,300 raw price point area with the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level and EMA21. In case of a sell-off below $3,292, gold could still find short-term support at the $3,250 technical point and the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement level.
In terms of momentum, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is pointing up from around the 50 mark, with the RSI still well above the overbought zone, suggesting room for further upside.
Looking ahead, the overall technical outlook for gold is bullish, with key points to watch out for as follows.
Support: $3,300 – $3,292 – $3,250
Resistance: $3,371 – $3,400 – $3,435
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3391 - 3389⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3395
→Take Profit 1 3383
↨
→Take Profit 2 3377
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3299 - 3301⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3295
→Take Profit 1 3307
↨
→Take Profit 2 3313
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [May 26 - May 30]This week, the price of OANDA:XAUUSD increased from 3,204 USD/oz to 3,365 USD/oz, and closed the week at 3,357 USD/oz.
The reason for the increase in gold price this week is due to:
🔹Moody's downgrades US credit rating, causing USD to fall.
🔹Unsuccessful US bond auction raises concerns about economic instability.
🔹President Trump threatens to raise tariffs on European goods, raising concerns about trade war.
🔹Escalating tensions in Ukraine, Middle East, increasing demand for safe haven gold.
Gold prices next week may fluctuate in both directions, meaning they will adjust and accumulate to wait for the results of US-China trade negotiations, US economic data, and whether Mr. Trump will decide to impose tariffs on Europe or not?
Next week, the US will release many important economic data, including:
➡️Durable Goods Orders (Tuesday),
➡️Minutes of the FED's May Policy Meeting (Wednesday),
➡️PCE Inflation Index (Friday).
With the Trump administration's tariff policy, inflationary pressures in the US have been under a lot of pressure. If the core PCE index in April increases more than expected, it may cause the FED to continue to keep interest rates unchanged at its July meeting. In this scenario, the USD may increase again, causing gold prices to be under pressure to adjust next week. However, gold prices next week will hardly decrease sharply if the PCE increases, because gold prices next week are still supported by other factors such as tariffs, geopolitical conflicts, etc.
📌Technically, on the H4 chart, gold prices are starting to break the Downtrend line and tend to move closer to the resistance level of 3432. Meanwhile, support is established around the dynamic resistance level of 3300. The gold price trend next week is likely to lean towards a slight increase scenario provided that the USD does not recover strongly and geopolitical tensions continue. However, investors need to be cautious with corrections due to profit-taking or sudden changes due to macroeconomic information. Gold prices next week may fluctuate in the range of 3300-3450.
Notable technical levels are listed below.
Support: 3,300 – 3,292 – 3,250USD
Resistance: 3,371 – 3,400 – 3,435USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3451 - 3449⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3455
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3299 - 3301⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3295
Stock Markets, Gold, Silver: Run With The Bulls!In this Weekly Market Forecast, we will analyze the S&P 500, NASDAQ, DOW JONES, Gold and Silver futures, for the week of May 25 - 31st.
The Stock Markets are bullish, so run with valid buy setups when they form.
Gold and Silver are relatively strong. With tensions in Gaza and Iran, this is expected. Valid buys should be taken.
Crude Oil is a tad bearish due to US inventories, so valid sells are warranted in the short term.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
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Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
GOLD Regains Above 3'300, since US stocks "Relief Rally" is OverGold prices recently surged above $3,300 per ounce due to a confluence of geopolitical, economic, and monetary factors driving strong safe-haven demand:
Heightened geopolitical tensions, particularly the Israel-Hamas conflict and ongoing US-China trade disputes, have increased uncertainty, prompting investors to seek Gold as a secure store of value amid instability.
The US dollar's weakness, nearing a three-year low, has further boosted gold's appeal for holders of other currencies, making Gold relatively cheaper and more attractive globally.
What is most important also, U.S. stock rally has overed recently its tedious 10-Day winning strike (fortunately which finished not at all the history peaks). That's why investors may be turning back to tried-and-true assets like Gold.
Central banks, notably China’s, have been consistently buying gold to diversify reserves away from the US dollar, supporting prices significantly. China increased its Gold reserves for the 17th consecutive month, signaling sustained institutional demand.
Additionally, gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have seen record inflows, reflecting growing investor interest beyond traditional buyers.
Market expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts later in 2025 have also played a key role. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold, enhancing its investment appeal amid inflation concerns and economic growth uncertainties.
This combination of geopolitical risk, a weaker dollar, central bank purchases, and anticipated monetary easing has propelled gold prices to historic highs, with forecasts suggesting further gains toward $3,500 per ounce.
--
Best #GODL wishes,
@PandorraResearch Team 😎
GOLD ends 3 consecutive days of increase, still positiveOANDA:XAUUSD fell on Thursday (May 22), ending a three-day winning streak and continued to decline slightly in early Asian trading today (May 23), mainly due to a recovery in the US dollar and profit-taking by investors after gold prices hit a two-week high.
However, the outlook for gold prices remains positive due to geopolitical conflicts. Sources revealed that Israel is preparing to attack Iran's nuclear facilities if negotiations between Iran and the United States fail. Readers can review these specific news in previous editions or regular short updates.
Data released by S&P Global on Thursday showed that the preliminary reading of the U.S. manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 52.3 in May from 50.2 in April, beating expectations of 50.1. The preliminary U.S. services PMI rose to 52.3 in May, compared to both the previous and expected readings of 50.8. Initial jobless claims in the United States were 227,000 in the week ending May 17, down from 229,000 in the previous week and below expectations of 230,000, suggesting the labor market remains solid.
The US House of Representatives passed President Trump's "big and beautiful" tax reform proposal on Thursday. According to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the proposal would increase US debt by $3.8 trillion over the next decade to $36.2 trillion.
Gold is often seen as a store of value during times of political and financial uncertainty.
Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD
Although gold fell yesterday, its current position still has enough conditions to increase towards the target at $3,371, which is the price point of the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement.
The nearest support to watch is the confluence of the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement with the 21-day moving average (EMA21), and even if gold falls short-term below this confluence, it can still increase with the following supports at $3,250, followed by the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement.
The relative strength index (RSI) remains above 50, which is a positive signal for the bullish momentum.
For the day, the technical outlook for gold is tilted to the upside and the points to watch are listed as follows.
Support: $3,300 – $3,292
Resistance: $3,371
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3367 - 3365⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3371
→Take Profit 1 3359
↨
→Take Profit 2 3353
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3274 - 3276⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3270
→Take Profit 1 3282
↨
→Take Profit 2 3288
XAUUSD How VIX points to a Gold Bear Cycle.Gold (XAUUSD) may be on a 5-week correction but on the long-term it remains within a Channel Up since the October 31 2022 Low. That was essentially when its Bear Cycle ended and the new Bull Cycle (Channel Up) started.
The previous Bull Cycle stopped 4.5 months after the Volatility Index (VIX) shown in blue, peaked during the March 2020 COVID flash crash.
We are now on a similar situation as VIX topped on the week of March 31 2025 during the Trade War and has already started to decline aggressively.
In symmetrical terms, we could be around the end of May 2020 on Gold's last short-term pull-back before the final rally to the August 03 2020 Top (where its Bear Cycle started).
As a result, according to this correlation, we may see Gold forming a Bull Cycle Top by the end of July (2025) and then start a new +2 year Bear Cycle.
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Gold Update: 2 optionsIndeed, the top metal surged well beyond $3,000, as I mentioned in my earlier post (see related post for details).
The price reached a new all-time high of $3,510 before pulling back, as expected.
So far, the retracement has been rejected at the trendline support around $3,123 (futures).
From here, there are two possible scenarios:
1) Blue Labels
The price may have already completed wave 4. If so, we could now see a large wave 5 move to the upside.
This wave could reach the blue target box, which represents 61.8% to 100% of the distance from wave 1 to wave 3, added to the bottom of wave 4.
This target zone lies between $3,700 and $4,100.
Keep in mind that gold is a commodity, and commodities often have extended fifth waves — so the higher end of the blue box is still possible.
2) White Labels
Typically, fourth waves retrace down to the valleys of previous lower-degree fourth waves.
In this case, the market could form another leg down to complete a larger, more complex correction, potentially hitting $2,975 before wave 5 begins.
If that happens, the target for wave 5 may be lower, but with a possible extended fifth wave, it could still reach the blue box area.
Weak USD and renewed safe-haven demand support GOLD surgeOANDA:XAUUSD surged to a one-week high. A weak US dollar and safe-haven demand amid economic and geopolitical uncertainty boosted gold prices.
Gold prices rose and held above $3,300 an ounce as traders grew increasingly concerned about the US tax reform vote and escalating tensions in the Middle East. In addition, Moody's downgrade of the US credit rating and the depreciation of the US dollar also boosted safe-haven demand for gold.
CNN reported Tuesday, citing multiple sources, that the latest intelligence suggests Israel is preparing to launch airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, even as negotiations between the Trump administration and Iran over the country's uranium enrichment program continue. Axios, a prominent U.S. news website, reported Wednesday local time that two Israeli sources with knowledge of the negotiations told Axios that Israel is preparing to strike Iran's nuclear facilities quickly if negotiations between the United States and Iran fall apart.
Israeli intelligence has shifted in recent days from believing a nuclear deal was imminent to believing that talks could soon collapse, sources said.
Gold, considered a safe investment amid economic and geopolitical uncertainty, hit a record high of $3,500.05 an ounce last month.
US stocks plunged on Wednesday and US Treasury yields jumped as investors focused on congressional debate over President Trump’s proposed tax reform, raising concerns that the country’s massive debt will continue to rise.
Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD
After gold broke the technical confluence of the 21-day moving average (EMA21) with the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement, it has qualified for further upside to the next target expected at $3,371, the price point of the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement.
Looking ahead, in the short term, gold has qualified for a new bullish cycle with the nearest support at the raw price point of $3,300 followed by $3,292. A bullish breakout of $3,371 would open the door to a new target at the raw price point of $3,400 in the short term, followed by $3,435.
As noted to readers throughout the publications since the beginning of the year, the trend of gold prices is fixed by the rising price channel, corrections can still take place negatively but the trend has not changed. "In fact, I have also encountered many failures when the market fluctuated too much recently, causing me to not believe in the rising price structure at times."
Trading is not just about fundamentals or technicals, it depends more on trading psychology. With the current market, experienced traders will still often encounter psychological problems, such as me, who is writing this article to you.
Finally, the short-term uptrend of gold prices in the main uptrend will be noted by the following notable levels.
Support: 3,300 – 3,292 – 3,250 USD
Resistance: 3,371 – 3,435 USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3367 - 3365⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3371
→Take Profit 1 3359
↨
→Take Profit 2 3353
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3265 - 3267⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3261
→Take Profit 1 3273
↨
→Take Profit 2 3279
XAUUSD: Channel Down top with Death Cross. Best sell enty.Gold marginally turned bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 55.472, MACD = 17.780, ADX = 34.620) as the price has been rising since last Thursday. Technically however, it is on the most efficient sell entry as it is just under the LH top of the 1 month Channel Down. The big difference now is that it formed a 4H Death Cross and last time we had one inside a Channel Down was almost 1 year ago (June 3rd 2024) and set in motion one last bearish wave to the 1.382 Fibonacci extension. We are therefore short with TP = 3,050.
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Gold Futures Analysis: Trade Plan COMEX:GC1!
Gold remains in a strong uptrend on the higher time frames, having recently broken above the $3000 level. This move sets the stage for further upside potential. The chart below highlights a Megaphone chart pattern, signaling volatility and broad price swings.
On the 4-hour chart, a pennant pattern is emerging within the uptrend, marked by a downtrend line from the recent highs. Additionally, an inverse head and shoulders pattern has formed, with a decisive breakout higher towards the 2025 CVAH. This level coincides with a high-volume node (HVN) and the edge of the value area distribution for 2025, suggesting it’s a key point of interest. Some consolidation is expected here before we either continue higher or see a rejection that could pull price back toward the uptrend line.
Scenario 1: Continuation Higher, Capped by 3400 Level
In this scenario, we anticipate further consolidation within the pennant on the 4-hour timeframe. After a brief pause, gold could continue higher, testing the 3400 resistance level. If momentum remains strong, we expect to see price consolidate within the pennant pattern to build energy for the next leg higher.
Scenario 2: Rejection at CVAH
In this scenario, gold struggles to sustain the move higher after breaking out from the inverse head and shoulders pattern. A failure to maintain the rally above the CVAH could lead to a rejection, followed by a retracement within the pennant structure. This would likely set up further consolidation towards the 3200 level before the next move up, possibly testing the uptrend line for support.
Our thoughts:
Gold is currently navigating an important juncture, with key levels at 2025 CVAH, 3400 and 3200 in focus. The near-term direction will depend on how price behaves within the pennant, as well as how it reacts to potential resistance or support levels. Traders should stay alert for volatility, as the consolidation phase could resolve in either a continuation of the uptrend or a pullback towards the trendline. Flight to safety, rising yields and geopolitical tensions will play a key role in shaping sentiment and trend in the Gold market.
GOLD spikes on geopolitics, not enough for new bull runIn the early trading session this morning (May 21), the spot OANDA:XAUUSD suddenly skyrocketed in the short term, surpassing the $3,300/ounce mark for the first time since May 9. In addition, the price of WTI crude oil also skyrocketed, at one point increasing by 3%. US media reported that US intelligence agencies had detected that Israel was preparing to attack Iran's nuclear facilities.
After the price increase on the previous trading day, the gold price continued to skyrocket to $3,304.18/ounce in the early trading session on Wednesday in Asia. Because gold is considered a safe asset in times of geopolitical and economic uncertainty, new signs of geopolitical instability once again supported the increase in gold prices.
CNN reported Tuesday local time that several US officials told CNN that new information obtained by the US shows that Israel is preparing to attack Iran's nuclear facilities even as the Trump administration seeks a diplomatic deal with Tehran.
Such an attack would be a clear break with President Donald Trump, U.S. officials said. It could also spark a broader conflict in the Middle East, something the United States has tried to avoid since the 2023 Gaza war ratcheted up tensions.
The growing concern stems not only from messages from senior Israeli officials, both public and private, that Israel is considering such a move, but also from intercepted Israeli communications and observations of Israeli military activity that could indicate an Israeli strike is imminent, multiple sources familiar with the intelligence said.
Geopolitical factors also played a role in pushing gold higher, as the failure to reach a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine and rising tensions in the Middle East could prompt investors to hold onto gold.
The dollar weakened on Tuesday after Moody's downgraded the United States' top triple-A credit rating. Fed officials were also cautious about the economic outlook, hurt by the downgrade. A weaker US dollar means gold becomes more attractive.
Analysis of the technical outlook for OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold surged to a technical confluence of key resistance formed by the location of the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement and the 21-day EMA. At this point, gold has not completely broken out of the price action around the $3,300 base point. If gold breaks above and sustains above the $3,300 base point, it will be in a position to continue to rise with a target of around $3,371 in the short term.
On the other hand, a sell-off below the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement would open the door for a retest of the $3,250 technical level followed by the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement.
Currently, the active position is not yet in line for a new bullish cycle. Therefore, the technical outlook for gold for the day is a retest of $3,250 in the short term, followed by $3,228.
The notable positions for intraday downside correction expectations are listed below.
Support: $3,250 – $3,228
Resistance: $3,331 – $3,345
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3356 - 3354⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3360
→Take Profit 1 3348
↨
→Take Profit 2 3342
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3270 - 3272⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3266
→Take Profit 1 3278
↨
→Take Profit 2 3284
Positive market, GOLD drops to 3,220 USD in short termOANDA:XAUUSD fell to $3,220/oz, down 0.61% on the day at press time, resuming a bearish trend and cooling demand for safe-haven assets. US President Trump spoke by phone with Russian President Vladimir Putin, with Trump saying Russia wants to reach a major trade deal with the United States and will immediately begin ceasefire negotiations with Ukraine. Ahead of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech, central bank officials remained on the sidelines, with the likelihood of a rate cut in the summer very low.
Trump said Russia wants to make a “big” trade deal with the United States. Trump posted on his Truth Social account that he spoke with Putin on Monday to discuss the deal. “I just had a two hour phone call with Putin and I think it went very well.”
Trump said he discussed a number of issues with Putin, primarily the ceasefire agreement between Putin and Ukraine. “Russia and Ukraine will immediately begin negotiations to achieve a ceasefire and, more importantly, an end to the war,” Trump wrote. “Both sides will negotiate the terms of this agreement, which is only possible because they have details of the negotiations that others do not. The tone and atmosphere of the talks were very good.”
After announcing the ceasefire, Trump also wrote that Putin was looking for a trade deal with the United States. “Russia wants to engage in massive trade with the United States after this disastrous ‘bloodbath’ is over, and I agree. Russia has a tremendous opportunity to create many jobs and wealth. The potential is limitless.” Trump also said that Ukraine could also benefit from a potential trade deal with the United States. He even added that the Vatican, represented by the new pope, would be willing to hold trade/ceasefire talks.
Recent cooperative initiatives between Putin and Trump, including the US President receiving a painting from Putin, have raised questions about how the US-Russia axis will affect trade dynamics between the two countries. The two countries have maintained active communication since Trump took office in January. Given the current global tensions, a new US-Russia trade deal would be a significant step forward.
Trump discussed peace in Ukraine with Putin on Monday after the US said it may have to pull out of a stalemate over ending Europe’s bloodiest conflict since World War II.
Looking ahead, markets are focused on a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, with traders now betting that the chances of a rate cut in the summer are extremely low.
The more positive news the market gets, the more pressure gold will face as cooling safe-haven demand will send investors looking for riskier assets.
Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD
As noted to readers in previous publications since gold was sold below EMA21, up to now, it still has a short-term technical trend leaning towards the downside. Specifically, gold has repeatedly failed to overcome the resistance level of 3,250 USD and has decreased in price every time it approaches this level. And in terms of momentum, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below 50, far from the oversold zone, indicating that there is still room for momentum to decline ahead.
For gold to be in a position to enter a new bullish cycle, the most important condition is that it needs to break above the $3,300 base level then target around $3,371 in the short term.
On the other hand, once gold breaks below the $3,200 support point it could continue to decline with the target then around the 0.618% Fibonacci retracement in the short term.
For the rest of the day, the technical outlook for gold is bearish with notable positions listed as follows.
Support: $3,200 – $3,163 – $3,120
Resistance: $3,250 – $3,292
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3226 - 3224⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3230
→Take Profit 1 3218
↨
→Take Profit 2 3212
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3150 - 3152⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3146
→Take Profit 1 3158
↨
→Take Profit 2 3164
XAUUSD Targeting the 1D MA100.When we looked at Gold (XAUUSD) on May 05 (see chart below), we called for a strong sell on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and a 3155 Target:
Now that this target was hit and the 1D MA50 broke, we expect a short-term bearish continuation, as the last 3 times the price broke below the 1D MA50, it always hit the 1D MA100 (green trend-line).
Still, all candles since the test closed above the 1D MA50 so we need to seek a confirmation of the bearish continuation and that is the 4H MA50 (red trend-line). If rejected there, expect an instant drop. If not, the last Resistance is the top of the Channel Down. In both cases, our short-term Target is 3060.
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GOLD surges 1.5% then falls, US credit rating downgradedOANDA:XAUUSD have recovered from their biggest weekly decline in six months, as growing concerns about the US economic outlook and budget deficit boosted demand for safe-haven assets.
Spot gold rose 1.5% to $3,249.80 an ounce in early Asian trading before paring losses, up about 0.55% on the day at press time.
Moody's Ratings announced late Friday that it had removed the U.S. government's top credit rating, downgrading the country from Aaa to Aa1.
Moody's blamed successive U.S. presidents and lawmakers for the growing budget deficit, although Moody's said the situation showed little sign of improving.
"While we recognize that the United States has significant economic and fiscal strength, we believe that these strengths are no longer sufficient to fully offset the deterioration in fiscal metrics," Moody's said in a statement.
This “black swan” event has raised concerns about the US financial situation. Safe-haven buying has fueled a sharp rise in gold prices. In addition, the weakening of the US dollar has also benefited the gold price trend.
This downgrade is likely to add to Wall Street’s growing concerns about the US government bond market. While rising yields typically boost their respective currencies, debt concerns could increase skepticism about the USD.
Gold prices have been volatile in recent months. Last week, gold posted its biggest weekly decline since November as geopolitical tensions eased. The move followed a sharp rally in gold, which topped $3,500 an ounce for the first time last month.
Gold is still up more than 20% this year, driven by global conflicts, tariffs from US President Donald Trump and flows into exchange-traded funds.
Technical outlook OANDA:XAUUSD
After gold reached the target resistance of 3,250 USD, it weakened slightly again, this resistance level is noted by readers in the weekly publication.
In the short term, gold still has a bearish outlook with the nearest resistance at 3,250 USD followed by the confluence of EMA21 and Fibonacci retracement 0.382%.
In terms of momentum, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still below 50, 50 is now acting as resistance while the RSI is still quite far from the oversold zone, indicating that there is still room for a decline in momentum ahead.
As long as gold remains below the 21 EMA, it remains bearish in the short term and a break below $3,200 would continue to push gold lower with a target of around $3,163 in the short term.
For gold to qualify for the upside, it needs to move above the 21 EMA, break the $3,300 base point and then target around $3,371 in the short term.
Intraday, the bearish outlook for gold in the short term will be highlighted again by the following levels.
Support: $3,200 – $3,163
Resistance: $3,250 – $3,292
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3261 - 3259⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3265
→Take Profit 1 3253
↨
→Take Profit 2 3247
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3199 - 3201⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3195
→Take Profit 1 3207
↨
→Take Profit 2 3213
Buyers Stand By And Be Ready! In this Weekly Market Forecast, we will analyze the S&P 500, NASDAQ, DOW JONES, Gold and Silver futures, for the week of May 18 - 24th.
The Stock Indices remain bullish. So buys are warranted for next week.
Gold and Silver pulled back last week on news of Trump's deals and sanction relief. But Gold is at support now. Watch for bullish setups for buys or a bearish market structure shift before seeking sells.
Crude Oil is near buy side liquidity. Look for short term buys before a longer term, high probability sell setup to form.
Enjoy!
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GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [May 19 - May 23]During the week, OANDA:XAUUSD fluctuated strongly, falling from $3,292/oz to $3,120/oz and then recovering to $3,202/oz. The main reason was that the US and China reached a trade agreement, according to which the two sides agreed to significantly reduce tariffs from May 14, creating positive sentiment for the market.
This week’s gold sell-off was the steepest since mid-June 2021, even steeper than the drop after Donald Trump’s election victory in November 2024. President Trump said there are currently about 150 partners who want to negotiate trade with the US, but the US cannot handle them all at once. In the next 2-3 weeks, the US will announce the export tax rates that partners will have to pay when selling to the US market.
The Trump administration will impose specific tariffs on partners that have not yet negotiated with the US, at what level, has not been specifically announced. If the new tariffs remain as high as the initial list of reciprocal tariffs, there is a risk that many partners will retaliate, making the tariff war hotter, pushing gold prices up sharply. On the contrary, if the new tariffs are much lower than the initially announced tariffs, gold prices may only increase moderately, then continue to adjust.
After the recent sharp sell-off, profit-taking sentiment is still dominating the market. However, safe-haven demand remains strong due to geopolitical tensions that have not yet ended and concerns about a global economic recession.
📌The gold price trend next week is likely to fluctuate in the range of 3,055 - 3,270 USD/ounce, with a slight decrease scenario being preferred due to profit-taking pressure and the potential recovery of the USD. However, if there is a positive signal from the Fed policy or increased geopolitical instability, the gold price may recover to the range of 3,260 - 3,270 USD/ounce. Investors need to closely monitor economic data and geopolitical fluctuations to make appropriate decisions.
Notable technical levels are listed below.
Support: 3,162 – 3,100 USD
Resistance: 3,228 – 3,250 – 3,292 USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3271 - 3269⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3275
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3054 - 3056⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3050
XAUUSD (GOLD) favors rally to new highXAUUSD (GOLD SPOT) ended the double correction at 3120.205 low and expect continuation in daily bullish sequence targeting 3635 high. Above 3120.205 low, it expects at least 3 swing bounce or continue bullish sequence. A break above trend channel will confirm the more upside.