GOLD → Fighting for levels. When do we go to 2500?FX:XAUUSD is forming a correction to the liquidity area after ATH update. To continue the growth the market needs to get confirmation from the bulls. The price still looks quite confident.
A corrective wave is being formed, confirming the end of the impulse bullish wave and the market's readiness to go for a fifth, which in general determines the medium-term prospects for us. The strong support area is the zones: 2417, 2400. Most likely, before further growth, the market may test these liquidity zones, but, a good signal and confirmation of readiness to go up will be the closing and consolidation of the price above 2417 and 2431.
Support levels: 2417, 2497, 2397
Resistance levels: 2431, 2437, 2450
Now there is a struggle between traders for strong levels, fundamentally and technically the bulls have the advantage, it is necessary to wait for confirmation on the chart, in order to take some measures for trading.
Regards R. Linda!
Gc1
XAUUSD Short-term Channel Up.Gold (XAUUSD) is trading within a short-term Channel Up pattern since the May 03 Low, essentially throughout the whole month, and currently the price is consolidating below the 1H MA50 (blue trend-line).
Such consolidation within the 1H MA50 and the 1H MA100 (green trend-line) took place on every single Higher Low formation at the bottom of the Channel Up. At the same time, the 4H RSI hits its Higher Lows trend-line.
The minimum Bullish Leg % within this Channel Up has been +2.44% and the maximum +3.35%. As a result, we turn bullish now on Gold with a 2465 - 2485 Target Zone.
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GOLD Market Outlook: Accumulation Phase and Bullish PotentialGold prices extended their gains on Monday, trading just below the all-time high of $2,450 reached during the Asian session. This movement is driven by growing expectations that major central banks, including the Federal Reserve, may ease monetary policy in 2024. After hitting the peak at $2,450, the price experienced a retracement to the 50% Fibonacci level, which coincides with a high-value area and the 20-period VWAP moving average. This confluence of technical factors suggests that the price may be entering an accumulation phase, indicating the potential for a new swing high driven by a bullish impulse.
If the market transitions to a distribution phase, the price is likely to revert below the 78.6% Fibonacci level, which has been identified as our stop loss. This level provides a crucial support point that, if breached, could signal a significant shift in market sentiment.
This week, the U.S. economic docket will be heavily influenced by statements from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials, leading up to the release of the latest Fed meeting minutes on Wednesday. These minutes will offer insights into the Fed's current stance on monetary policy and potential future actions. Additionally, on Thursday, the U.S. Initial Jobless Claims report is expected to provide further evidence of a cooling labor market. This report, coupled with the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, will be closely watched for indications of broader economic trends.
Market participants should pay close attention to these developments, as they will likely influence gold prices and overall market sentiment. The interplay between technical indicators and fundamental economic data will be key in determining the next major move in gold prices. As always, traders are advised to stay informed and adjust their strategies accordingly in response to evolving market conditions.
In summary, gold prices are positioned just below their historical peak, with technical indicators suggesting potential for further gains. However, the upcoming economic data and Fed communications will play a critical role in shaping market dynamics in the near term. Maintaining a close watch on these factors will be essential for navigating potential market shifts and making informed trading decisions.
GOLD → ATH Update. What are the reasons? Next up is 2500? FX:XAUUSD has been breaking through ATH and testing 2450 since the opening of the session. Possible reasons could be fundamentally weak dollar, as well as geopolitical reasons related to Iran
Earlier we defined exactly the end of the correction, the intermediate bottom at that moment was the area of 2300 and since that moment the price has overcome the way of 150 dollars or 6%. The bulls are back in the market and traders are ready to support the acutal trend.
It is worth paying attention to the support of 2431, 2417, it is possible the beginning of a small correction (assumed 4th wave), within which the price can test the above mentioned areas of liquidity before further growth.
Support levels: 2431, 2425, 2417
Resistance levels: 2450, 2475
The bulls will actively defend the nearest liquidity areas and strong support levels, as these are the risk areas for the buyer. The trend may get its continuation either after a pullback or when the price breaks through and consolidates above 2450
Regards R. Linda!
GOLD (GCM2024, XAUUSD)... BULLISH BIAS!Bias is Bullish.
Price is moving up with convincing
momentum. Respecting bullish PD
Arrays, disrespecting bearish ones.
No signs of reversal. The intent to
reach the DOL/Swing High seems
clear.
The expectation is for Gold to make
further gains. A potential pullback
to 2400 area would make sense as a
zone to buy from, as buying from the
top is not recommended.
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New Support & Resistance for the Gold CFD market in 2024Fundamental Analysis :
Since we all know the geopolitical tension we are living right now : Russian and Ukranian War, Palestinian and Israel conflict, Tension between USA and China, BRICS buying gold massively.
Also increasing inflation all over the world, increase in interest rates is globalised...
Gold also is very correlated with US CPI, GPD, Housing sector who is not doing well (maybe new bubble)... anyway hope the best for the dollar... who is being challenged in this new geopolitical era.
Technical Analysis :
Gold is doing well, most agressive move are bullish move (volumes weighted). Very healthy trend, that is obvious to oscillator expert.
TDI, is the best indicator to use since it's a combination of 5 well known indicators
GOLD Futures: H4 Footprint Insights and Daily Chart DynamicsGold Futures Footprint Analysis on the H4 Timeframe reveals an intriguing market dynamic. Monday's opening saw a bearish candle, characterized by a spike that retraced to the previous Point of Control (POC) volume of the preceding candle. This retracement occurred concurrently with a block of previous bullish orders (513+535), suggesting a potential area of resistance. Despite the presence of sellers, there appears to be a notable imbalance favoring buyers, indicating underlying support for a price increase.
Although the Delta reflects a bearish sentiment, the sellers' efforts do not seem to exert a significant downward pressure on price movement. This phenomenon aligns with a classic interpretation of price action in CFD trading, commonly referred to as a "retest."
Zooming out to the daily chart, we observe that buyer volume slightly surpasses that of sellers, accompanied by a lower Delta compared to the previous candle. This discrepancy implies that a relatively small effort from buyers may yield significant results. Moreover, the POC on the daily chart currently resides on the upper side of the candle, indicating that the majority of transactions or market battles are occurring at higher price levels. This observation further strengthens the case for a bullish continuation.
In summary, the Footprint Analysis highlights a nuanced interplay between buyers and sellers in the Gold Futures market. Despite initial bearish signals, the presence of buyer imbalance and strategic positioning on the daily chart suggest a potential bullish momentum continuation. Traders may consider these insights when formulating their trading strategies.
Daily Footprint Analysis
GOLD → Are the bulls ready to break through 2430 and go ↑ ? OANDA:XAUUSD on the background of weak dollar and favorable fundamental background realizes the accumulated potential after breaking through resistance. The price is testing the global resistance of 2431.
The market is bullish again, which was supported by economic news, mainly related to inflation.
Technically, the gold is again interested in strong buyers after the correction phase, which ended at the moment of the beginning of the realization of the bullish pattern, as well as the confirmation of the bulls. In general, this movement can be continued, as the general background is favorable for the gold market
In the coming week traders are interested in such news as:
- Powell's speech on Monday
- FOMC meeting minutes on Tuesday
- Initial Jobless Claims on Thursday
Resistance levels: 2417, 2431
Support levels: 2400, 2375
Technically, the price may test the ATH on Monday, but a bounce or a false breakdown may be formed afterwards, which will lead to a small correction. A quick retest of 2431 could lead to a breakout and further growth
Regards R. Linda!
XAUUSD. Weekly trading levels 13 - 17.05.2024We continue the experiment with a wider range of zones. Let's see if we can guess the places to search for deals for the week ahead.
Last week is HERE or in the related ideas at the bottom of the post.
During the week you can trade from these price levels. Finding the entry point into a trade is up to you, depending on your trading style and the development of the situation.
If you expect any medium-term price movements, then most likely they will start from one of the zones.
Levels are valid for a week, the date is in the title. The next morning I adjust the levels based on the new data and publish a new post.
The history of level development can be seen in my previous posts. They cannot be edited or deleted. Everything is fair. :)
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Levels are drawn based on volumes and data from CME. Used as areas of interest for trade. When approaching a level, a “reaction” is expected, which can be traded for both a rebound and a breakout. The worst option is if we revolve around the level in a flat.
Do not reverse the market at every level; if there is a trend movement, consider it as an opportunity to enter into a continuation of the movement. Until the price has drawn a reversal pattern.
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GOLD → Consolidation above 2380 will cause a rise to 2400FX:XAUUSD is consolidating above the important for the market level of 2378. Bulls are trying to keep the defense above this zone in order to continue growth on the background of weak dollar.
Gold is recovering after leaving the correction channel. The price is once again near its highs (ATH), within the current move the price could quite possibly renew it if the fundamental background does not change next week.
At the moment, the main objective of the bulls is to consolidate above 2378-2385 in order to go higher: to 2400 and then to 2430-2450.
Support levels: 2378, 2371
Resistance levels: 2400, 2418
Within the current trend we may see a continuation of the trend. There is no strong news on Friday, so the movements may be calm. I am waiting for the resumption of growth from 2378, or from the channel support.
Regards R. Linda!
GOLD → The realization phase is taking shape. Target 2450?FX:XAUUSD is strengthening well on the background of weakening dollar index, related to fundamental reasons (news on inflation). Gold's strengthening may continue, but after a correction.
Bulls are interested in 2378-2350 area. The main task is to take the defense above the key liquidity and support zones. Confirmation of the end of the correction phase on H4-D1 is forming and the market is moving into the bullish phase, forming a strong realization in the form of distribution. Practically, we should wait for support retest and consolidation above the level with the aim to continue growth towards 2400-2450.
Today at 12:30pm Initial Jobless Claims is published, analysts are expecting a decline in the index, which could be a bullish scenario, but actual data above 219K could weaken the dollar, while below it could strengthen.
Resistance levels: 2397, 2400
Support levels: 2378, 2352
The local correction phase may be stopped near the key levels, but it all depends on the news, if they confirm the general fundamental background, the gold growth will continue, otherwise, the local correction will drag down to 2350.
Regards R. Linda!
GOLD’s recent period of consolidationGold ended the week higher after a late rally on Thursday and Friday. It had initially pulled back from its all-time high due to trendline resistance. The precious metal is expected to react to the latest US inflation data, which affects Treasury yields, interest rate expectations, and the US dollar. Gold bulls are hopeful that softer CPI data will drive the metal higher and test the all-time high.
Gold broke its recent consolidation period, surpassing the resistance at $2,340/oz. Buyers pushed the price to a three-week high on Friday, and gold opened above the 20-day moving average. If it can stay above this level, further gains are expected. The ongoing situation in the Middle East may also contribute to increased demand for gold.
In the near future, the trend of gold price is still being noticed by the falling price channel but it also has technical conditions to increase the price, but with the closing price position as shown in the chart, gold can still decrease. adjusted to test the EMA21 and notable technical levels are listed below.
Support: 2,335 – 2,330 – 2,305USD
Resistance: 2,366 – 2,378USD
🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2393 - 2391
⚰️SL: 2397
⬆️TP1: 2386
⬆️TP2: 2381
🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2329 - 2331
⚰️SL: 2325
⬆️TP1: 2336
⬆️TP2: 2341
UPDATE GOld hit 1st target - 2nd Target ready to rally to $2,746Our gold anaslysis played out very nicely after the triangle formation, breakout and then run up to the first target at $2,236.
Now we have a new formation in the making - W FOrmation.
I do believe we will get some sideways movement to create equilibrium and prepare for the next run up.
So as long as the price is above the 20 and 200MA - it's good to go!
My second target is set for gold to $2,746
GOLD → Will the bullish sentiment persist after the news?FX:XAUUSD is growing and testing local descending resistance. Growth is associated with the decline in the dollar index on the background of Powell's comments. Ahead of the news on inflation...
Technically, on H4 the price overcomes the correction phase and returns to the bullish rut, testing the local maximum. Bulls are focused on consolidation above 2350. If this can be done on the background of the news, 2400-2500 is ahead.
Traders are waiting for the inflation report, which may be ambiguous like PPI. A slight weakening of the situation may weaken the dollar, and gold will react appropriately.
Resistance levels: 2378, 2400, 2418
Support levels: 2352, 2336, 2328
The mood of traders is bullish, which can generally determine the medium-term outlook for us. But inflation can both strengthen this bullish mood and weaken it. Trade carefully!
Regards R. Linda!
XAUUSD: 4H Golden Cross since February.Gold is bullish on the 1D technical outlook (RSI = 62.834, MACD = 24.030, ADX = 26.032) and on the 4H formed the first Golden Cross since February 28th. Last time this sparked a very aggressive rise with the 4H supporting. We are targeting the top of the long term Channel Up (TP = 2,500).
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GOLD Price Stability Amid Rising Global TensionsOn Tuesday, the price of gold stabilized as mounting geopolitical tensions spurred demand for the safe-haven asset.
Escalating protests against Israel’s presence in Gaza, Russia’s initiation of a new conflict in Ukraine, and concerns regarding potential disruptions in global trade have heightened the perception of geopolitical risk.
The decision by BRICS nations to reduce reliance on the US Dollar for international trade transactions has bolstered interest in gold as an alternative. Consequently, there has been a notable increase in non-Western central banks' demand for gold, accompanied by a corresponding decrease in US Dollar reserves.
Gold is being considered as a viable substitute for the US Dollar as a secure store of value in international trade agreements involving nations with volatile domestic currencies, as per insights from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a Washington-based advisory service.
From a technical standpoint, analysis of the H4 timeframe reveals a divergence in the cumulative delta, with the preceding candle exhibiting a negative cumulative delta while the current candle shows a positive delta. The previous candle effectively absorbed all inefficiency orders from sellers, forming an absorption candle characterized by a long spike, while the current candle is endeavoring to elevate buyer volume. There is potential for the current candle to retest the previous candle's point of control (POC) to attract new buyers at a discounted rate. Our strategy revolves around a long setup with a target aimed at the previous fair value area.
The Middle East is hot again, GOLD skyrocketedOANDA:XAUUSD jumped as weak US initial jobless claims data and dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials weighed on the US dollar, along with tensions. New tensions in the Middle East attract risk haven demand.
Data released by the United States on Thursday showed that the number of people applying for unemployment benefits increased by 22,000 in the week of May 4 to 231,000, the highest level since late August last year and higher than US expectations. economists are 215,000.
The number of applications for unemployment benefits in the US is higher than expected and previous reports, showing that the economy is losing momentum. This could influence the Fed's future monetary policy decisions as they acknowledge that they are focused on a dual mandate (full employment and inflation.)
San Francisco Fed President Daly said Thursday that the Fed would consider cutting interest rates if the job market worsens. Interest rates are currently holding back the economy, but it may take "longer time" to bring inflation back to target.
Israel said on May 9 that ceasefire negotiations in the Gaza Strip in the Egyptian capital Cairo had broken down and the Israeli army would continue to attack in the city of Rafah, southern Gaza Strip. Israeli officials also said the Israeli delegation left Cairo that day.
According to reports from Egypt's Cairo News TV channel on May 9, negotiators from Hamas, Israel, Qatar and the US left Egypt that day after ceasefire negotiations in Gaza entered into. deadlock.
According to a Reuters report on May 8, Hamas said on May 8 that it was not willing to make further concessions to Israel in ceasefire negotiations in Gaza.
On May 8, Israel continued to use tanks and warplanes to attack the city of Rafah in southern Gaza, and threatened to launch a large-scale attack on this city. . Their troops entered the city through the Rafah border crossing with Egypt on the 7th, cutting off vital aid channels and the only exit for evacuating the wounded.
In general, the fundamental picture is leaning towards the possibility of more support for gold prices, especially as the geopolitical situation has new escalation points. This causes shelter demand to cover the market and in all cases of widespread risk, gold is always chosen as the top shelter asset.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
After a long period of accumulation, the gold price finally broke the accumulation triangle in yesterday's trading session, and it is worth noting that gold brought price activity back above the EMA21 level.
In the short term, gold is still technically limited by the upper edge of the price channel and this is also the closest current resistance, noted at 2,366 USD. In case the price channel is broken, gold is eligible to continue to increase even more with the highest level at the all-time peak of 2,430 USD.
Since the resistance at the upper channel edge is the most notable technical level currently, open short positions should be protected once this level is broken. On the other hand, if gold remains within the price channel, it is still likely to retest the $2,330 technical level in the short term.
During the day, gold price is still in the downtrend price channel and technical levels will be noticed again as follows.
Support: 2,330USD
Resistance: 2,366USD
🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2366 - 2364
⚰️SL: 2370
⬆️TP1: 2359
⬆️TP2: 2354
🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2317 - 2319
⚰️SL: 2313
⬆️TP1: 2324
⬆️TP2: 2329
🖥 GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [May 13 - May 17]Gold prices surged to a three-week high of $2,375 an ounce on Friday due to weak U.S. economic data. The University of Michigan's preliminary May consumer confidence index fell to 67.4, lower than expectations. Additionally, there was an unexpected increase in initial jobless claims, reaching the highest level since last August. Investors are now awaiting next week's US Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which could greatly affect gold prices and the financial market overall.
If inflation data released next week shows a slowdown, it could lead to the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September. Financial markets expect the Fed to begin easing monetary policy in September, which could increase the appeal of gold due to lower interest rates. Traders currently see a 25% chance of a 0.5% rate cut in July, rising to nearly 49% in September. Changes in these expectations could impact gold prices. Data from the CFTC shows a decrease in gold futures contracts in the week ending May 7.
Financial data and economic events next week:
- Tuesday: US Producer Price Index (PPI), Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will speak in Amsterdam, Netherlands;
- Wednesday: US Consumer Price Index (CPI), US retail sales, New York Fed Empire State Survey;
- Thursday: US weekly initial jobless claims, US housing starts, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey.
📌Gold broke out of an accumulation triangle and has shown two days of significant increases on the daily chart. It surpassed EMA21 and the price channel edge, signaling a potential breakout. If it breaks the bearish channel and goes above $2,366, it could enter a bull run. To confirm bearish conditions, gold would need to fall below EMA21 and stay below $2,330. The current support level is $2,330.
The trading plan for next week will consider buying if the price returns to around the 2320 barrier, and selling if the price rises around the 2400 barrier.
GOLD → How can the price react to the NEWS on inflation?FX:XAUUSD earlier returned to the range after a false breakdown of resistance. The market is now fading as it is in the waiting phase for Powell's speech as well as the rest of the inflation news.
Traders are waiting for PPI ( ECONOMICS:USPPIMM ) today as well as tomorrow's CPI ( ECONOMICS:USIRYY ) . Earlier, the market discussed the interest rate cut as well as inflation, which continues to remain at a rather high level, which does not please the Fed. Traders are expecting inflation to drop from 3.5 to 3.4. This is possible, but it is still very high relative to what Powell, who will also speak today, is expecting.
Gold may react strongly to the news as economic factors are unpredictable. It will be necessary to follow the actual data and not to trade before the news.
Resistance levels: 2352, 2363, 2378
Support levels: 2328, 2306, 2295
Fundamentally it is still very bad, inflation is high, rate cuts are not expected, in general this scenario lays further strengthening of the dollar. In such a case, gold may continue to correct to the lows.
Regards R. Linda!
GOLD → Price moves back into range. Waiting for a test of 2328FX:XAUUSD returns to the range after a false breakdown of the liquidity zone. A strong sell-off phase is forming and price is heading towards a key support and liquidity area.
On local timeframes, reversal patterns cause price to test downside resistance and confirm its presence. False breakout provokes sell-offs towards 2328, this area is key for traders. The market maker is interested in a retest of the liquidity zone, relative to which a false breakout and growth towards range resistance can take place. In general, the market is still neutral-negative in the local perspective, accordingly, it is acceptable to consider both buying and selling intraday.
Resistance levels: 2352, 2378
Support levels: 2328, 2306
The correction will end only after breaking through the descending resistance (area 2365-2370), but at the moment the market is still in the correction phase, which is developing within the 4 wave.
Regards R. Linda!
GOLD enters accumulation when there is little fundamental impactThe story in financial markets focuses on when the Federal Reserve will begin easing policy after releasing weak economic data. The U.S. Department of Labor said that nonfarm payroll employment in April was 175,000, lower than expected and lower than March's upwardly revised figure of 315,000.
After the data was released, the CME FedWatch tool showed that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September increased to 64.8% from 55% before the report.
However, the US Dollar has been boosted by recent hawkish comments from Minneapolis Fed President Nir Kashkari, who said the Fed could continue to raise interest rates and set the stage for higher federal funds rates. if inflation does not continue its downward trend.
This week's economic calendar will mainly focus on news from Federal Reserve officials, as well as initial jobless claims for the week ending May 4 and a preliminary release of the index. University of Michigan consumer confidence numbers.
In general, throughout this week there was no data or events of a very sudden nature, so gold is also less subject to fundamental impacts and is suitable for the current state of narrow range movement.
Gold keeping its price activity below EMA21 gives it more room to fall. However, with the current market context, without many fundamental impacts, gold prices may continue to move in a narrow range and enter accumulation.
The accumulation area is noticed by EMA21 and the Fibonacci 0.236% level, in which EMA21 is the resistance and Fibonacci 0.236% is the support.
If gold falls below the 0.236% Fibonacci level, it will open a new downtrend with the short-term target level being the upper edge of the price channel and more than the 0.382% Fibonacci level. On the other hand, even if price activity rises above the EMA21 level, gold price will still be limited by the 2,365 level and the upper edge of the price channel because the current technical trend is still down in the short term.
During the day, gold has a technical outlook of moving sideways and accumulating with notable technical levels as follows.
Support: 2,300 – 2,284USD
Resistance: 2,322 – 2,340 – 2,345USD
🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2364 - 2362
⚰️SL: 2368
⬆️TP1: 2357
⬆️TP2: 2352
🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2289 - 2291
⚰️SL: 2285
⬆️TP1: 2296
⬆️TP2: 2301
GOLD accumulates and shrinks,the market lacks fundamental impactScarce U.S. economic data will keep investors focused on Federal Reserve officials in the week following last Friday's U.S. jobs report.
Gold prices are trading around 2,312USD/oz after reaching a daily high yesterday of 2,321USD/oz. The story in financial markets focuses on when the Federal Reserve will begin easing policy after releasing weak economic data.
The U.S. Department of Labor revealed that nonfarm payroll employment in April was 175,000, lower than expected and lagging March's upwardly revised figure of 315,000.
"Lack of progress" in inflation has pushed back expectations for the Fed's first interest rate cut from July to September. However, the market still expects three interest rate cuts, each by 25 basis points. in this year.
The report said that the lack of progress since the beginning of this year means that it will take longer for Fed policymakers to believe that inflation is continuing to fall toward the 2% target.
They expect 3-month and 6-month annualized core PCE to be "near or below" 2% by the end of the year, in which case it would be "too late" to wait until after September to cut rates .
This week's economic calendar will take a closer look at news from Federal Reserve officials, as well as initial jobless claims for the week ending May 4 and a preliminary release of the index. University of Michigan consumer confidence numbers.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold is generally still entering the stage of accumulating attention from readers in previous publications. However, gold prices are also becoming more narrowly accumulated as depicted by the green triangle on the chart.
In terms of overall factors, gold prices are more likely to decline because the main trend has not changed, noticed by the short-term downward price channel and the latest pressure from the 21-day moving average EMA21.
As long as the gold price remains below the EMA21, it still has enough room to fall in the short term. Meanwhile, gold could open a new bearish cycle if it breaks below the 0.236% Fibonacci level, then the target level is aimed around the lower channel edge and upper channel edge, more likely to be the 0.382 Fibonacci level %.
Temporarily, gold prices will continue to tend to accumulate without much macroeconomic impact on the market. But the technical conditions still favor the possibility of price reduction as mentioned above. During the day, notable technical levels are listed below.
Support: 2,300 – 2,284USD
Resistance: 2,330 – 2,340 – 2,345USD
🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2351 - 2349
⚰️SL: 2355
⬆️TP1: 2344
⬆️TP2: 2339
🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2268 - 2270
⚰️SL: 2264
⬆️TP1: 2275
⬆️TP2: 2380