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GOLD → One step away from a correction? What's going on?FX:XAUUSD is stopping after a strong rally. The price tests 2400 and forms a local maximum, but what is surprising is that the market does not let the price beyond 2400 yet. The market is starting to gain liquidity at the expense of the buyer. Price comes back into the range after attempting to break 2400 and eliminates the buyers. The first bells are appearing for a possible start of correction after a strong rally. At the moment it is worth paying attention to the range 2365 - 2400, there is a chance that the price will stay inside this corridor for some time. Since the trend is bullish, we should still expect growth in the future, but there is a risk and panic area on the chart, if it is broken through, a deep correction to 0.382 Fibo or 0.382 on D1 may start. Resistance levels: 2400, 2418, 2431 Support levels: 2365, 2300 The bullish trend is in priority and it is worth to build your trading strategy in relation to the trend. False break of 2365 and consolidation above 2372 may favor the growth, as well as break and consolidation of the price above 2400. But the chart is beginning to show the preconditions for a possible bearish correction. We continue to watch the level of 2365. Breakdown, updating of the local minimum of 2352 and consolidation of the price below this area will form a downside potential TVC:DXY COMEX:GC1! COMEX_MINI:MGC1! MCX:GOLD1! Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSD
by RLinda
4
GOLD remains stable, two important fundamentalsOANDA:XAUUSD continuing to adjust after approaching the original price of 2,400 USD, the target price increase noticed by readers in yesterday's publication is also a resistance that causes gold prices to adjust but overall it does not change. trend with the expectation of entering the accumulation phase. Iran said its military is ready to respond to any Israeli attack. Geopolitical instability continues to support gold and if the situation escalates it will continue to keep gold prices stable. Only when central banks stop buying, or the geopolitical situation cools down, gold prices will only decrease because market psychology will enter a risk-taking phase. Top US central bankers, including Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, on Tuesday declined to offer any guidance on the timing of interest rate cuts, instead says monetary policy will need to be restrained for longer. After a series of unexpectedly high inflation, on April 16, Powell signaled that the Fed would wait longer than expected before cutting interest rates, marking another significant change since his shift in focus. focus on loosening policy in December 2023. Powell's latest policy shift poses a dilemma for central bank governors gathered in Washington for the spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank. As sent to readers in yesterday's edition, the market is being negatively affected by two important fundamental factors. - Gold is supported by risk aversion from the escalating geopolitical situation in many places around the globe. - Gold is under pressure because inflation macro data remains unexpectedly high and the possibility that the Fed will keep interest rates high for a longer period of time. This makes gold very difficult to navigate at the present time because both of these factors can bring market shocks and create huge technical fluctuations. Analyze technical prospects OANDA:XAUUSD Although gold has continued to correct after approaching the original price level of 2,400 USD, in general the technical conditions supporting the possibility of price increases have not changed. With a short-term uptrend from the price channel. Even if the price channel breaks below it would only open up the possibility for another correction where bullish conditions are still present with the main long-term trend from EMA21. In case the price channel is broken below gold could fall further to test the 0.786% Fibonacci extension. The current chart is still tilted to the upside but it may enter an accumulation phase with notable technical levels listed below. Support: 2,356 – 2,365USD Resistance: 2,400 – 2428USD
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
Geopolitical conflicts escalated, GOLD rose above $2,400OANDA:XAUUSD spot delivery suddenly increased sharply. Spot gold has just increased to 2,415 USD/ounce, it has increased more than 35 US Dollars during the day. Previously, US media reported that the US confirmed that an Israeli missile hit an Iranian facility. The most active gold futures contract on COMEX was 1,426 lots traded within one minute from 08:43 to 08:44 Hanoi time on April 19, with a total contract value of 346 million USD. According to the latest report of the American Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) today Friday, April 19, a US official confirmed to the media that an Israeli missile hit a target in Iran. Meanwhile, US intelligence said officials could not confirm reports of air strikes in Syria and Iraq. ABC reported that a senior US official told ABC News that Israel launched missiles at Iran as a retaliation attack against Iran. Israeli military officials previously announced that Iran launched an attack on Saturday and launched more than 300 missiles and drones at targets across Israel. All but a few were intercepted by Israel and its allies, including the United States, officials said. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the country's war cabinet have held several meetings since the attack on Iran, with ABC previously reporting that at least two previous attacks had been called off. With current geopolitical developments, the market in general and the gold market in particular will temporarily be less affected by moves from monetary policy. Gold is considered the safe haven asset of choice in contexts of geopolitical conflict, and it becomes even more attractive if conflicts escalate. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold has achieved all target price increases after 3 days of accumulation with a short-term upward trend from the price channel that has been noticed by readers throughout the previous editions maintained. maintain stability. The bullish structure remains unchanged with a short-term upward trend from the price channel and medium-term from the EMA21. Temporarily, gold has enough conditions to retest its all-time peak if it continues to maintain above the original price of 2,400 USD. This means the current all-time high is considered the nearest resistance level, which is also the nearest target upside. Meanwhile, the 1% Fibonacci extension now becomes the closest support level. During the day, the uptrend of gold prices will be noticed by the following technical levels. Support: 2,365 - 2,382USD Resistance: 2,400 – 2,417USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2431 - 2429 ⚰️SL: 2435 ⬆️TP1: 2424 ⬆️TP2: 2419 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2335 - 2337 ⚰️SL: 2331 ⬆️TP1: 2342 ⬆️TP2: 2347
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD reached target gainsAlthough the dollar and US Treasury yields rose as US retail sales rose more than expected in March, tensions in the Middle East boosted safe-haven demand, and at the same time, the market Expecting that the Federal Reserve will be able to delay interest rate cuts this year, gold prices did not extend last week's decline but continued to increase. Iran launched drones and explosive missiles late on Saturday, the first attack by another country on Israel in more than three decades, raising fears of a wider regional conflict than. Israeli officials support retaliation, but the United States makes clear it will not engage in any offensive action against Iran, limiting the immediate market reaction and limiting further gains of gold. The market now expects fewer than two 25 basis point interest rate cuts by the end of this year, compared with three previously expected. With inflation remaining high, market participants have now pushed back expectations for the Federal Reserve's first rate cut from June to September. This remains supportive of a rise. US Treasury yields, with the US 10-year Treasury yield rising to 4.61%. Higher bond yields weigh on gold prices because they increase the opportunity cost of holding gold investments. However, in the current context, this is not a steady pressure and should only be considered a factor limiting the strong increase in gold prices. According to CME's "Fed Watch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in May is 96% and the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 4%. The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged until June is 77.8%, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 21.4%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 0 ,8%. The Middle East prepares for an Israeli "retaliation" attack on Iran after an Israeli war cabinet meeting. The Israeli Air Force said it had completed "preparations" and that an attack on Iran was "imminent". (according to Zerohedge) US officials say they believe Israel will conduct operations against Iran today. (according to Wall Street Journal) Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Hezi Halevi said during an inspection of Nevatim Air Base on Monday that Iranian missile and drone attacks on Israel “will be responded to.” The Times' front page headline was changed to "War Cabinet decides on serious attack on Iran, hopes not to trigger regional war". Previously it was “Times of Israel”. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, after the downward correction, gold has achieved all of the target gains noted by readers in the weekly publication and the structural support for the bullish outlook remains unchanged. Temporarily, the nearest target level is noted at the original price level of 2,400 USD. Once this raw price level is broken, gold will tend to continue to increase to the all-time peak previously established. The original price level of 2,400 USD is also the closest resistance in the short term, and as long as gold continues to maintain above the 2,382 USD price point of the 1% Fibonacci extension, reaching 2,400 USD is inevitable. During the day, the upward trend of gold prices will continue to be maintained with notable technical levels as follows. Resistance: 2400 - 2428USD Support: 2358 - 2345 - 2330USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2409 - 2407 ⚰️SL: 2413 ⬆️TP1: 2402 ⬆️TP2: 2397 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2357 - 2359 ⚰️SL: 2353 ⬆️TP1: 2364 ⬆️TP2: 2369
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD may enter an accumulation phaseOANDA:XAUUSD remained steady as safe-haven demand due to ongoing tensions in the Middle East offset weakening expectations of a US interest rate cut this year. Data on Monday showed U.S. retail sales rose more than expected in March. Yields on 10-year Treasury notes rose for a second straight session, with rising bond yields putting pressure on gold as they increase the opportunity cost of investing in metals. However, gold has remained strong over the past few weeks despite rising bond yields due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. As a safe-haven asset, gold has seen growing demand from investors and central banks amid global economic uncertainty and growing geopolitical tensions. On the one hand, investors are still concerned about the risk of further escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, especially after Iran attacked Israel over the weekend. On the other hand, speculation that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher for longer has limited demand for gold. Traders are now relying on US macro data and speeches from influential members of the Fed, including Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, to find trading opportunities. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said recent inflation data suggests it may take longer for the central bank to feel confident enough to cut interest rates. Powell pointed out that the Fed has lacked more progress in fighting inflation since inflation fell sharply late last year. If price pressures continue, the Fed could leave interest rates unchanged “for as long as necessary.” “Recent data clearly does not give us greater confidence but instead suggests that achieving that confidence may take longer than expected,” Powell said in his latest statement. After Fed Chairman Powell said that recent data showed no progress in inflation, this new point caused interest rate cut expectations to continue to decline. According to the latest data from CME's "Fed Watch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in May is 98%, the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 0% and the probability of increasing interest rates by 25 basis points version is 2%. The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged until June is 84.8% and the cumulative probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 14.9%. The market context is making trading decisions much more difficult, as two important market fundamentals are creating profoundly opposing influences. On the one hand, gold is supported by rising geopolitical risks that increase safe-haven demand for precious metals, on the other hand, gold is under pressure because the Fed's interest rate expectations are having new points due to data. Does macroeconomics favor the Fed keeping interest rates higher for longer? These two opposing factors may create a state of accumulation in the near future, with gold prices increasing and decreasing within certain limits and this will be described through the technical analysis section below. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, after gold received support from readers in yesterday's edition at $2,365, it continued to rise but was limited by the original price level of $2,400 which was also a resistance point. target for short-term increase expectations. At this time, the $2,400 level is also the closest notable technical resistance level and once this level is broken it will open up expectations towards the previously established all-time high. Will consider selling around the Fibo 100 mark, corresponding to the resistance threshold of 2430USD. Technical conditions are still supporting the possibility of price increases with the short-term trend being noticed by the price channel and the long-term trend from EMA21. As long as gold remains above the 21 EMA, it remains in a long-term bullish trend. In the short term, influenced by fundamental factors, gold may enter an accumulation phase with main resistance at 2,400 USD and support at 2,365 USD. It is worth noting that if the $2,365 level is broken below gold will tend to retest the 0.786% Fibonacci extension of the $2,331 price point. Recently, gold has been traded at a very large margin, so preparations are needed from managing trading volume and open positions/protecting open positions. The expectation of cumulative sideways with an uptrend will be noticed by the following technical levels. Support: 2,331 - 2,365USD Resistance: 2,400 - 2430USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2431 - 2429 ⚰️SL: 2435 ⬆️TP1: 2424 ⬆️TP2: 2419 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2351 - 2353 ⚰️SL: 2348 ⬆️TP1: 2358 ⬆️TP2: 2363
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD → Range 2365-2400. Will the price continue to grow? FX:XAUUSD is trying to consolidate above 2365. This area is an intermediate bottom and plays an important role for the bulls in the medium term. The range of 2365-2400 is being formed. Idea of Apr. 16: GOLD → There's no limit to the bulls' activity. Support retest In general, everything is the same, but after a strong rally, the price makes a small stop and starts to enter liquidity zones more often, which has not happened for 2-3 weeks. Apparently, the energy is exhausted and the market maker starts to collect liquidity from the market with the help of traps. Gold is still trading above key support levels and looks strong enough to test or even renew the global high Resistance levels: 2395, 2400, 2430 Support levels: 2365, MA-200, trend support The price is testing MA-200 and forming a false breakdown of 2365. The market reduces volatility and goes into the waiting phase before the news, the growth may continue either after the support retest or at the breakout of 2380. Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
7
GOLD taking profits after continuously creating highsGold hit a new record of $2,430 last week during the New York session. It has seen gains in seven of the past eight weeks, increasing by over 17% since mid-February. This is despite the strength of the US dollar and a hawkish repricing of US interest rate expectations. The usual negative relationship between gold and US real yields has broken down, leaving traders confused. Geopolitical frictions in the Middle East have further bolstered gold, although these risks have intensified only recently and haven't been a predominant theme for an extended period. To add context, investors have been nervous about Iran's potential retaliation against Israel following the bombing of its embassy in Syria. Such action could escalate tensions in the region and spill over into a wider conflict. DEEPER LOOK INTO CURRENT MARKET DRIVERS There are several other reasons that could explain why gold has done so well this year. Here are some possible explanations for its ascent: The Momentum Trap: Gold's relentless rise could be fueled by a self-fulfilling speculative frenzy. This trend-following behavior can create vertical rallies that are often unsustainable over the long term. Should this dynamic be at play right now, a sharp downward correction could unfold once sentiment shifts and valuations reset. Hard landing: Some market participants may be hedging an economic downturn caused by the aggressive monetary policy tightening from 2022-2023 and the fact that policymakers could keep interest rates higher for longer in response to stalling progress on disinflation. Inflation comeback: Gold bulls could be taking a strategic long-term approach, betting that the Fed will cut rates no matter what as insurance policy to prevent adverse developments in an election year. Cutting rates while consumer prices remain well above the 2% target risks triggering a new inflationary wave that would ultimately benefit precious metals. OANDA:XAUUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold has rallied this week, setting a new all-time high near $2,430. However, the price eventually fell to that level and closed at $2,344 on Friday. If the reversal persists in the coming trading sessions, support will emerge at $2,305, followed by $2,267. With further weakness, all eyes will be on $2,225. On the other hand, if they rotate higher and rally again, the record high of $2,430 will be the first line of defense against further advances. With the market stretched and in overbought territory, gold may struggle to overcome this barrier, but in the event of a breakout, we could see gold prices move towards $2,500. During the day, the upward trend of gold prices will continue to be maintained with notable technical levels as follows. Support: 2,319 – 2,267 - 2,225USD Resistance: 2,365 - 2,430USD
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
EURUSD stabilizes ahead of press conferenceOANDA:EURUSD , CHARTS AND ANALYSIS - ECB edges further towards a June rate cut. - Will President Lagarde begin signaling further rate cuts? The ECB maintained its policy levers unchanged, as expected. However, they stated that if their assessment of inflation and monetary policy transmission improves, they may consider reducing current restrictions. This follows their previous mention of June as a potential meeting for a policy decision, increasing the likelihood of a cut on June 6th. Financial markets continue to price in a 25 basis point at the June meeting and have recently increased the probability of an additional cut at the July 18th meeting. It may well be that the ECB cuts twice before the Fed makes its first move. OANDA:EURUSD fell sharply yesterday, due to post-CPI US dollar strength, leaving the Euro as the next driver of any move. Initial support is seen around 1.0698, a double-low made in early February, before the 1.0635 – May 31st swing-low – and 1.0610 – Fibonacci retracement – come into play.
by Xayah_trading
🖥 GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [April 15 - April 19]International gold prices surged this week due to central banks' gold demand, expected interest rate cuts by the FED and other central banks, and heightened geopolitical tensions in regions like the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine. Rising tensions in the Middle East, especially between Iran and Israel, have increased gold's safe haven status. Central banks, including those in the BRICS bloc, are buying gold to diversify away from the US and the West. Lower interest rates by central banks like the FED are expected to drive up gold prices. The unexpected growth of the US labor market in March, with 303,000 jobs added, gives motivation for the FED to cut interest rates in June. International gold prices have increased by 17% since the beginning of 2024 and have room to rise further when the FED cuts interest rates. March CPI and PPI data, to be released next week, may strongly affect gold prices. Forecasts suggest that US CPI will rise by approximately 0.2% in March. If the actual data meets or falls below this expectation (below 0.3%), it will be favorable for gold prices. This would bolster the likelihood of the Fed cutting interest rates in June. Conversely, if March CPI exceeds 0.4%, it could delay the Fed's rate cut plans and negatively impact gold prices. 📌Technically, if we refer to the monthly time frame technical chart, the gold price has formed wave 5 according to the Elliott wave pattern, continuing to dissect the Elliott wave on the weekly chart, we can see with the naked eye. Currently, the gold price is in wave 3, and the price is approximately touching the 161.8 fibo mark around the 2431 threshold. If wave 3 is officially completed and enters the adjustment cycle, but we need to see the gold price trading above the 2200 threshold to expect it. Gold maintained its upward momentum and formed another wave 5, continuing to conquer a new high price level. Another perspective with the fibo time zone, the gold price may peak and reverse at the end of April or through May, corresponding to the peak of wave 3 and reduce and adjust wave 4, which is also considered appropriate. ly. The trading plan for next week will first consider selling around 2383 and buying if the price adjusts to 2250.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD → There's no limit to the bulls' activity. Support retest FX:XAUUSD is trading exclusively in a bull market. Quick and temporary reactions to the news are quickly exhausted and buyers regain the upper hand on the metal's price. Yesterday the price made another retest of the support at 2330, which has the status of an intermediate bottom. This area held the price and after that the market returned to its true direction. On the background of activity of dynamic buyers the price tests 2390 and forms correction to the support. From 2365 the continuation of growth within the uptrend is also expected. Today from the news only the speech of the head of the Fed at 17:15 GMT. Support levels: 2365, 2330 Resistance levels: 2390, 2400 Technically, a retest of the support is forming on the background of the uptrend. The 2365 area plays an important role, as the market earlier emphasized the presence of this area. A false breakdown before further growth is possible. Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
10
GOLD → The price is not falling on the US news. Target 2450?FX:XAUUSD is showing strength as a hedge asset. The price continues to indicate to us that it intends to go even higher. The market is cleaned up after the shakeout and the big player continues to play his game. (Idea from Apr.16: GOLD → There's no limit to the bulls' activity. Support retest) Bulls form another intermediate bottom at 2365, building a limit support area. The price bounces and strengthens almost to 2400. Gold shows itself as a safe asset and finds interest from investors. On H1, the price breaks local resistance and heads towards 2400. At the moment, the market's target is to break 2400 and reach the liquidity area of 2431. Resistance levels: 2431, 2400 Support levels: 2371, MA-50, 2365 Technically, this is a strong bull market. It is worth looking for strong support areas to buy or strong resistance areas to trade on a breakout. Potential target is 2400, 2430, 2450. Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
13
GOLD reversed sharply from record peakThe gold market heated up last week due to increasing geopolitical tensions. Israel is preparing for a potential attack from Iran, while Iran has vowed to seek revenge on Israel following an attack on their consulate in Damascus. This news is expected to drive safe-haven gold buying over the weekend. The US Department of Labor's report states that the producer price index (PPI) rose 0.2% in March 2024, which is lower than economists' predicted 0.3% increase. Investors are acknowledging the potential for prolonged inflation and expect the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to maintain a patient approach to monetary policy. After rising to 2,431 USD/ounce, the highest price in history, gold encountered profit-taking pressure, causing the price of this precious metal to decline sharply. While gold failed to hold above $2,400 an ounce, analysts noted that it remains strong as it prepares to set another weekly record. The new record comes even as markets begin to assess the possibility of an interest rate cut in June after March inflation was higher than expected.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
XAUUSD: Overbought but still bullish above the 4H MA100.Gold is overbought on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 75.650, MACD = 67.600, ADX = 69.434) and appears to be unphazed by the recent rejection at the top of the Channel Up that pulled back to the 4H MA50. This is basically a consolidation that can be evolved to a similar pattern with March's. It was the 4H MA100 that held it on an uptrend at the time and has been holding since February 23rd. We remain bullish as long as it continues to hold, targeting the top of the Channel on a +10.54% increase (TP = 2,550). If the 4H MA100 is crossed, we will go short aiming at the 1D MA50 (TP = 2,220). See how our prior idea has worked out: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by InvestingScope
Gold might be in a late stage of the rallyGold saw a pullback of nearly $100 from a high of $2,431, followed by a slight rebound, dragging the price to $2,370 per troy ounce. This increasing volatility begs the question of the market’s state. To address this, we would like to note that the rising volume has been accompanying the increasing price, which is positive (and, indeed, quite impressive, considering how much gold has run up in the past year). In addition to that, silver and some of the mining stocks within the precious metals sector began to catch up with gold recently, which could indicate the shiny metal is entering a late stage of the rally. With that said, we think there is still a significant chance for gold to run higher (likely beyond $2,500). But then, we are also well aware that certain market developments (if they play out) might hold gold down for much longer (including the stock market downturn, steady or higher interest rates for longer, etc.). Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of XAUUSD. Green arrows highlight a simultaneous rise in the price and volume. Illustration 1.02 The weekly graph of XAUUSD depicts two multi-year resistance levels from the past, which now act as critical support levels. Following a breakout above the first level in June 2019, gold rallied nearly 51% before forming another wall of resistance at $2,075. This level was first time broken (temporarily) in late 2023 and then again in late February 2024 (now with the price staying above it); when measuring from the second breakout level at $2,075 until the recent peak of $2,431, gold rallied slightly more than 17%, potentially leaving some more upside left (though, unlikely another 30% without a significant pullback to the base). Illustration 1.03 The daily chart of XAUUSD above shows alternative support levels derived from past peaks and troughs. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Tradersweekly
US CPI data could put GOLD into accumulationAfter the US announced March inflation data, OANDA:XAUUSD is on the defensive. The data showed an increase in both monthly and yearly readings and could weaken the Fed's intention to ease policy. The data provided some resistance to the precious metal after its recent run of heat. The US consumer price index (CPI) increased 0.4% monthly and 3.5% annually, exceeding expectations and recovering from the previous month. The core consumer price index, excluding food and energy, also exceeded expectations, holding steady at 0.4% month-on-month and increasing 3.8% year-over-year, in line with consistent with February data. Strong CPI data forced traders to reduce bets on an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. In general, the Fed's sustained high interest rates will put downward pressure on prices for non-yielding assets such as gold because it increases the cost of investing in these assets. Still, gold has remained an anomaly over the past few weeks, with demand remaining strong even as traders bet big on the prospect of interest rate cuts at the Reserve's June and July meetings. Federal. Gold has remained in focus over the past few weeks as tensions in the Middle East escalated again, underpinning safe-haven buying and pent-up demand for the precious metal from global central banks. Central banks are hoarding gold to prevent a possible economic recession. Overall, gold still has a lot of fundamental room to support price increases but with the newly released CPI data it will be held back a bit without changing the main market trend. As told to readers through short comments during the day, CPI data can create short-term downward adjustments without changing the trend, so short positions are opened in search of profits. Expecting a downward adjustment should also be kept at short-term levels. Almost the current market is just waiting for a drop to buy, there is too much geopolitical instability growing. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold is still maintaining stability with short, medium and long-term trends being bullish and after yesterday's slight correction, gold moved above the 0.786% Fibonacci level, causing a decline. greater chance of downward adjustment. On the prospect of a downside correction, gold would have more technical room to fall further towards the confluence of the lower edge of the price channel and the 0.618% Fibonacci extension if it is sold below $2,331, also This means that the level of 2,331USD is the closest support currently. Meanwhile, the notable resistance levels at $2,355 – $2,365 will be important technical levels as once they are broken gold is likely to continue making new all-time highs with a target level. Then at 2,382USD the price point of the Fibonacci extension is 1%. During the day, with the newly published CPI data, gold is likely to have a downward correction and enter accumulation with the main uptrend remaining unchanged. Notable technical levels are listed below. Support: 2,331 – 2,320USD Resistance: 2,358 – 2,365 - 2,375USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2356 - 2354 ⚰️SL: 2360 ⬆️TP1: 2349 ⬆️TP2: 2344 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2302 - 2304 ⚰️SL: 2298 ⬆️TP1: 2309 ⬆️TP2: 2314
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
2
Data muted, GOLD rises as Middle East tensions escalateUS producer price data had little impact on expectations of a US interest rate cut this year, the European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged, and continued geopolitical concerns also increased appeal. Leading the way in OANDA:XAUUSD , gold became strong and hit another all-time record. US PPI rose 0.2% month-on-month and 2.1% year-on-year in March, less than expected. Annual core PPI rose 2.4% year-on-year, beating expectations and beating expectations of 2.3% and a 2% gain in February. Weekly initial jobless claims improved to 211,000, below expectations of 215,000 and down from 222,000 previously. Top US and Israeli generals discuss escalating war and warn embassies to limit travel The Middle East is currently on high alert, wary of Iran's threat to launch a retaliatory attack on Israel. In early April, the consulate building of the Iranian Embassy in Syria was attacked, killing 16 people, including two high-ranking Iranian generals. Iran blamed the attack on Israel and vowed revenge. American officials are helping Israel plan and share intelligence assessments. Israel's Western allies have been informed that Israeli military and government facilities may be attacked, but civilian facilities are not expected to be targeted. Israeli officials also told their allies they were waiting for an attack before launching a ground attack on the city of Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip. US and Israeli intelligence officials say it is only a matter of time before Iran retaliates, an attack could occur in the next few days and Iran could use precision guided missiles. Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned on Wednesday that Israel "must and will be punished" as US President Joe Biden reiterated his "ironclad" support for the key regional ally mine. Additionally, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin held discussions with Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant on Thursday. “A direct attack by Iran would require an appropriate response from Israel toward Iran,” Galante told the US Secretary of Defense. The Israeli Defense Ministry said the two officials "discussed Iran's preparations to attack Israel", with Galante stressing that "Israel will not tolerate Iranian attacks on its territory". The White House also said the US had informed Iran that it was not involved in the airstrike targeting a senior Iranian military commander in Damascus. The US has warned its embassy staff to limit travel after Iran threatened Israel. (According to NewsX) Nearly all macro data did not impact strong central bank buying, safe-haven capital flows amid persistent geopolitical risks and demand from funds have been the driving force behind prices. OANDA:XAUUSD increased 14% from the beginning of the year until now. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold continues to set new highs during the Asian trading session and shows no signs of stopping and no notable resistance levels left to expect a significant downward correction. All technical indicators are supporting gold prices to continue to increase, while the nearest resistance level may be the upper edge of the price channel and if this price channel continues to be broken, gold could reach the original price of 2,400 USD. and will watch the Sell resistance at 2,410 USD according to Fibo extension. In a bearish case, gold needs to take price action below the $2,382 technical price point of the 1% Fibonacci extension and then the expected correction target at $2,365, more than $2,331. It is very difficult to make any decisions in the current context when open buying positions face the risk of downward adjustment due to a long period of hot growth. Meanwhile, open sell positions cannot find any resistance positions ahead as a basis for setting protection levels. During the day, the upward trend of gold prices will continue to be maintained with notable technical levels as follows. Support: 2,382 – 2,365USD Resistance: 2410 - 2,400USD 🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2411 - 2409 ⚰️SL: 2415 ⬆️TP1: 2404 ⬆️TP2: 2399 🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2359 - 2361 ⚰️SL: 2355 ⬆️TP1: 2366 ⬆️TP2: 2371
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
GOLD → A retest of bullish trend support. What to expect? FX:XAUUSD reaches the 2400 mark on Friday before facing a profit-taking. There is a possibility that traders closed positions before the strong news that occurred from Saturday to Sunday. There is no correlation with the dollar now, which makes it easier for technical analysis. In fact, we have a strong bullish trend and strong support in the form of the 2325-2330 zone and an ascending channel line. From Saturday to Sunday there was the development of another geopolitical problem in the Middle East and it is related to the armed crisis between Iran and Israel, which in general can only affect the appreciation of the metal. Resistance levels: 2365, 2375 Support levels: 2335, 2330, 2325 In general, we should consider a retest of the trend support or 2330 and look at the price reaction to these levels. Most likely, the trend may continue. Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
6
XAUUSD Is this a legitimate correction?There is no doubt that Gold (XAUUSD) has entered a new Bull Cycle after last month's bullish break-out. Last week though it closed its 1W candle almost on a Doji which can potentially be a trend reversal, at least on the short-term. As you can see on this 1W chart, which displays the similarities between the previous Cycle and the current, such 1W candles have been on global market tops: May 01 2023, January 16 2023, March 07 2022 etc. If we are indeed at the phase past the Accumulation (Rectangle pattern) simular to February 2020, then we can expect a short-term correction. Of course the March 2020 price collapse that touched the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) had solely to do with the COVID asset-wide crash. Still though, in February 2020, the market posted a red 1W candle that erased the gains of two weeks in a row. As a result, if the current week doesn't post a new High, we expect a pull-back towards at least 2250. Beyond that, in order to approach the 1W MA50 again, we need a fundamental catalyst. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by TradingShot
GOLD → Profit-taking and another war. Opening with a GAP?FX:XAUUSD updates another high to 2431.4 and then begins to shed heavily amid profit taking by traders. The weekend also proved to be fundamentally important for the markets, which may react strongly. Most of the nearly $100 drop is due to profit taking by traders as the price reaches psychological levels, but the drop to 2300-2350 allows to find new buyers at relatively cheap prices. From Saturday to Sunday the next and not unimportant armed conflict between Iran and Israel is developing, which in general can affect the prices of commodities and futures quite strongly. On H1 the price is declining to the trend support and is testing the liquidity area of 2330-2350. In all likelihood, the market may open with a gap on Monday amid the crisis in the Middle East. The area below 2328 may still remain protected and play an important role in price formation. Resistance levels: 2354, 2400, 2428 Support levels: 2328, 2303 Fundamentally everything is quite complicated and not stable, Gold still plays an important role as a hedge asset and interest in the metal is getting stronger, the growth from 2300-2350 is likely to continue COMEX:GC1! TVC:DXY COMEX_MINI:MGC1! Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
36
GOLD breaks records every day, big data and events are comingOANDA:XAUUSD continued to set new records yesterday, driven by buying momentum and geopolitical risks, while markets focused on the Federal Reserve's policy meeting minutes and U.S. inflation data. America to seek direction on the US interest rate cut timetable. Federal Reserve policy meeting minutes and US consumer price index (CPI) data will be released on Wednesday. Gold is considered a hedge against inflation and geopolitical instability, but higher interest rates tend to make holding this non-yielding asset less attractive. It seems like any news about the US is a reason to buy. Signs of a strong economy and tamed inflation, underscoring gold's store of value as a store of value. Weak inflation increases expectations that the Federal Reserve will soon cut interest rates, which also makes the US dollar less attractive. According to a survey of economists, the US core CPI in March will increase by 0.3% over the same period last month, slightly lower than the increase of 0.4% in February; Meanwhile, overall CPI is expected to increase by 3.4%, higher than last month's 3.2%. If data shows a return to inflation, this will threaten market sentiment and could create downward pressure on gold prices and create a downward correction amid the recent hot rally. Analyze technical prospects OANDA:XAUUSD On the chart it is difficult to find a reasonable stop for expectations of a significant downward adjustment in gold prices when every day is a new all-time peak. In the short term, the fluctuation range at the lower edge near the 2340USD area is noted as the nearest support level and if gold can move below this level, it will have technical conditions to reduce the price more. Since the Relative Strength Index has been operating in the overbought area for a long time, if gold falls below $2,240, open positions with expectations of a downward adjustment will become more grounded. Currently, gold still has all the factors supporting a technical price increase with a short-term trend from the price channel, a medium and long-term uptrend from the EMA. Meanwhile, the nearest resistance level is at 2403 USD, the Fibonacci confluence extends 1.618%. This period is a very difficult period when gold has had a long period of hot growth without any clear adjustment rhythm. Following the uptrend can be risky when a downward adjustment occurs. More accurately, "I want to buy, but any position is only short-term and doesn't feel safe."
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1