GC1! ! Chart Idea - Short SetupSwing short setup on GC1!
Confirmations:
- Bearish Divergence
- Rising Wedge
If rising wedge breaks to the downside, TP should be around 2266 - 2260
Gc1
GOLD → Could NFP cause a counter-trend correction?FX:XAUUSD within a strong rally stops and forms a flat before the publication of NFP. Relative to 2288 a false breakout is formed, bringing sellers into the market.
The dollar is in a correction phase, as is gold. The price is testing the local low of 2267.67 but still does not reach the strong liquidity zones of 2265, 2228, 2222. There is still a strong buyer in the market, but after the correction and the false breakdown of 2288 a seller appears. NFP is ahead, a rather important news, which can both turn the market and strengthen the current movement. It is worth paying attention to the resistance at 2288 and 2305. There is a chance to see the continuation of counter-trend correction, but before that there is a chance that a big player will drive the price to ATH before further decline to the specified liquidity areas: 2265, 2228 or to the support of the formal channel.
Resistance levels: 2288, 2305
Support levels: 2265, 2228, 2222
Technical factors are not enough now to specify the key areas for opening sales or purchases, so it is worth to base on the fundamental reasons and strong resistance and support areas.
TVC:DXY COMEX:GC1! COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
Regards R. Linda!
GOLD → Reached 2300. What's next, going higher or correction?FX:XAUUSD breaks records and updates the high to 2305, but technically, the implied target is still not reached. Today Initial Jobless Claims before NFP is published and the market may go into a consolidation phase.
On D1 we see the dollar declining after a false break of the resistance at 104.94 as well as the downside resistance. Ahead of Initial Jobless Claims, in general, traders are waiting for neutral-negative data, the situation is still complicated, but Powell is trying to keep the market from Panic with his statements.
Obviously, after the release of PMI and JOLTS data the Fed will not change the policy based on Q1 data. What is happening in the market now is emotion, but many people take it seriously. Still, we should wait for more important and factual data than just words in the air.
The inflation rate in January-February was higher than in 2023, which was the reason for the panic "inflation will be even higher and rates will be held for longer". But, the latest data doesn't change the situation significantly.
2300 may become a key psychological level for gold and cool down the market a bit, which may form a correction. There are still some areas of imbalance that the market maker may test before resuming the rise to the resistance level formed on the monthly timeframe.
Support levels: 2288, 2265, 2253
Resistance levels: 2300, 2325, 2337
Technically, a small correction to liquidity zones may start before further rsoot towards psychological levels
COMEX:GC1! COMEX_MINI:MGC1! TVC:DXY
Regards R. linda!
XAUUSD New Bull Cycle mapped! Approaching first Resistance Zone?Gold (XAUUSD) has technically started its new Bull Cycle after breaking above the Resistance and previous All Time High (ATH) into green overbought territory. Being overbought in such instances isn't necessarily bearish but suggests that even though the long-term trend is now heavily bullish (and should be for the next year or so), we should look for key Resistances to offer relief pull-backs.
As you can see on this 1W chart, there are strong similarities of the current Cycle (both Bear and Bull) with the previous one (June 2016 - August 2020). The Bear Cycle's come in the form of Cup patterns, while the Bull Cycles start on Channel Up patterns at the bottom of the Bear ones. During the previous Bull Cycle, the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) has supported all the way from its bullish break-out (December 24 2018) until deep into the next Bear (February 01 2021).
Right now the 1W MA50 has been supporting since October 09 2023, which is shortly after the dashed Channel Up started. That is an important pattern as it currently has a maximum upside to 2350 for a Higher High. The dotted Channel Up on the contrary, which was initiated at the bottom of the Bear Cycle has already touched its Higher High.
This means that Gold's new Bull Cycle is facing its first significant Resistance Zone of the current run: 2300 - 2350. Relative to the previous Bull Cycle, Gold had it's first Resistance rejection on August 26 2019, making a Higher High and started to pull-back for almost 100 days (3 months). As the current bullish trend is significantly stronger than the 2019 one, the dashed Channel Up being narrower, I doubt that Gold will correct for that long, but on the next red 1W candle, we have to consider the possibility for a short-term correction.
The August 2019 one pulled as low as the previous High before the rejection (bold black line). This suggests that 2220 - 2200 is Gold's floor at the moment and shouldn't be broken. Back to its overbought status, the 1W RSI gives a clear indication of that. Once it starts reversing inside an Arc pattern, we will confirm the correction we're discussing now. And after it forms systematically Lower Highs on quarterly intervals, we can expect by the 3rd Lower High to be close to the Top of the Bull Cycle.
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GOLD → A correction before further growth?FX:XAUUSD has been forming a small correction towards liquidity zones since the opening of the session. On the background of strong bullish trend it is quite logical scenario before the news publication.
The dollar index is testing a strong resistance before the news and a correction is possible, which will only strengthen the growth of gold. But, it is impossible to determine in advance what kind of news it will be (bullish or bearish for the dollar). Traders expect bullish: ADP NonFarm, ISM PMI, and bearish: SP PMI. Also, the big question is what Powell will say tonight....
Technically, gold is still in a bullish trend. And it may continue after a correction.
Resistance levels: 2288, 2300
Support levels: 2265, 2253, 2228
Technically, the market is bullish. A retest and false breakout of one of the above areas could strengthen the price again. But, the structure may break when the channel resistance (as support) or 2228 is broken, in which case the correction will be prolonged to lower zones.
Regards R. Linda!
GOLD solid gains, extending positive momentumOANDA:XAUUSD Q2 TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Gold kicked off the first quarter of 2024 with solid gains, extending the positive momentum established in the latter part of 2023. During this upturn, XAU/USD soared to new all-time highs, decisively breaking past the $2,150 mark, and eventually reaching a peak of $2,235.
While bullion’s technical profile continues to be bullish, with a clear pattern of higher highs and higher lows, caution is advised, with the 10-week RSI indicator signaling possible overbought conditions. When markets become overextended in a short period of time, corrective pullbacks often follow, even if they turn out to be temporary or relatively minor.
In the event of a bearish shift, support can be identified at $2,145, followed by $2,070, as displayed in the weekly chart attached. Bulls will need to vigorously defend this technical floor; failure to do so may result in a retracement towards the 200-day simple moving average near $1,985. Further down, attention will turn to channel support at $1,920, then to $1,810.
On the other hand, if the bulls maintain control of the steering wheel and look to push prices higher in the coming days and weeks, a successful breakout could add further bullish pressure, paving the way for a move towards resistance. channel at $2,255.
Gold approaches all-time highsIn the previous post on gold, we expressed our fears about the shiny metal amid a sudden spike in volatility and a slight drop in the U.S. market indices (accompanying the spike in VIX). Nevertheless, it did not take long for the volatility to falter and the fear to disappear among market participants. Quickly, the market leaped higher, and gold followed in tandem, breaking above $2,100. The overall picture improved at a fast pace, and now, gold trades merely $20 away from its all-time highs. However, as stocks and cryptocurrencies are reaching the euphoria phase, the case for a significant pullback in the two markets is growing, which could (temporarily) negatively affect gold’s performance; in our opinion, the stock market weakness is one of the biggest potential foes to gold going forward. Yet, this does not change our view of the big picture. We remain highly bullish on gold in the long term and maintain the price target of $2,300.
Illustration 1.01
Volume increases alongside the price, which is normally a positive development.
Technical analysis
Daily timeframe = Bullish
Weekly timeframe = Bullish
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
XAUUSD: Can it really target 2,850 by the end of the year??Gold is vastly overbought on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 80.447, MACD = 42.840, ADX = 50.847) and the reason is that since last month's (March) breakout and monthly closing above the 2020 Resistance, it started a new bullish hyper Cycle. It is overbought on the 1W RSI also (74.802) while the monthly (1M) is only a fraction away too (RSI = 69.871). This is a heavily aggressive long term trend that until its peak won't offer many pullbacks and those will be limited.
This 1M chart shows that according to the 1M RSI we're where Gold was on the August 2019 breakout on the previous Cycle. Before that both patterns pulled back and held the 1M MA50 and 0.5 Fibonacci level. The rally that followed the breakout, peaked at +98.09% from the bottom (Fib extension 3.0). The current pattern is at +25% since the 1M MA50 and 0.5 Fib rebound and another +25% until the end of the year would also complete +98.09% from the bottom. Our end of year Target is exactly on that level (TP = 2,850).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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Goldaholics Anonymous Pour yourself a glass of Goldschläger and let's review the 12 steps before diving into this.
1. We admitted that we were powerless over the Fed -- that our balance sheet had become unmanageable.
2. Came to believe that a Power greater than our central bank could restore us to solvency.
3. Made a decision to turn our fiat over to the care of sound money, as we understood it.
4. Made a searching and fearless inventory of our finances.
5. Admitted to Peter Schiff, Lyn Alden, and Pomp the exact nature of our wrongs.
6. Were entirely ready to have big, fat Gains.
7. Humbly asked to avoid getting short squeezed.
8. Made a list of all the naysayers about to be harmed.
9. Sent direct messages to them to gloat in victory.
10. Continued to count our gains and polish our bullion.
11. Sought through fundamental and technical analysis to improve our entries and exits.
12. Having had a financial awakening as the result of these steps, we tried to carry this message to other goldaholics, and practice these principles in all of our trades.
Macro Fibonacci
Below we can see the magic of Fibonacci extensions, measuring the last macro bull run to the 2016 low.
Zooming in a bit, it is clear that these levels attract attention. Each one of these fibs acts as a step in the staircase. All we need to do is look at volume and price action to validate each level. The smart money had their sell orders at the 0.618 Fibonacci extension. The 0.5 could not hold which indicates that the next level down will be tested. Watch for heavy volume to come in there near the 0.382 level.
In the U.S. stock market and many other developed financial markets, about 70-80 percent of overall trading volume is generated through algorithmic trading.
Historical Price Action
Looking back to the last bull run there are a few simple patterns to watch for...
1. Weekly MACD flailing around above the zero level.
2. Mark the down trends and wait for the break.
3. Price action is above the 20 Week EMA.
Trading Setup
Using historical price action the trading setup becomes clear...
1. Weekly MACD is flailing above the zero level.
2. The down trend line is clear. Wait for the break.
3. Wait for 20 Week EMA support.
Now, the targets are the Fibonacci levels above, and the ghost bars look reasonable, however, it would be wise to take a look at what exactly is driving Gold on this path.
The U.S. Dollar
The Dollar index inversely pressures Gold prices so this is worth noting.
1. Momentum is shifting bullish as a bullish MACD divergence reveals itself on the daily chart.
2. This recent move was the 3rd wave down which often precedes a reversal.
3. The index is at the bottom of this future channel.
As this index recovers back towards the 200 Week EMA, it will surely scare the metals market. However, the macro downtrend is only on it's first wave down. From a technical standpoint, the second wave is often the deepest as panic sets in from the failed recovery.
Treasury Yields
Yields recently had a similar bullish MACD divergence with a very weak recovery that followed. The trend is still clear and it's highly likely to roll over as it timidly approaches the trendline in the coming months. Gold has been riding along side Bonds so this should continue to drive up prices. Depending on the severity of falling yields, it could trigger temporary crashes in the metals. But longer term, buying the dips is the way to go.
Trading is risky. Don't do it.
Long
Bullion: Gold, Silver, Platinum
Equities: GDX, PHYS, CEF, SLV, RIO, SPPP
Futures: (Not yet)
GOLD → The market's buying back the fall. Next up, 2300?FX:XAUUSD is still very strong. The price does not react to the news properly, only as a short-term reaction. The market is quickly buying back the decline and testing resistance.
Buying potential is quite strong, the probable area of the first stop could be the zone 2300-2325. On H1, an intermediate sideways range is formed after a false breakdown of channel resistance. The price defines the lower boundary as 2228 without reaching the strong support at 2222, which indicates that the bulls are very much keeping the price away from risk zones. A retest of the resistance is formed and there is a high chance to see a false breakout or a bounce followed by a correction, which may become a consolidation phase before further growth.
Resistance levels: 2265
Support levels: 2228
High interest to the metal from investors, central banks favorably affect the strengthening of the metal, besides the role of hedge asset is now more than ever manifested in the market. Gold will try to break the resistance for further growth, as there is no hint of a change in the global trend
COMEX:GC1! COMEX_MINI:MGC1! TVC:DXY
Regards R. Linda!
GOLD skyrocketed, the world reached a new peakThe world gold spot price is around 2,233 USD/ounce, a spike of 42 USD/ounce compared to the transaction at the same time yesterday morning. Closing last night's session, the world gold spot price in the US market stood at 2,233 USD/ounce, a sharp increase of more than 38 USD/ounce, equivalent to an increase of 1.74% compared to the previous session's close.
Yesterday, the global financial market received more positive economic information in the US, the USD increased well but the price of gold - a capital security asset still increased too strongly to an unprecedented high.
Specifically, the US announced that its gross domestic product (GDP) in the fourth quarter of 2023 increased by 3.4% over the same period, higher than the previous forecast of 3.2%. First-time applications for unemployment benefits in the US last week were at 210,000 applications, lower than the 212,000 applications forecast previously and last week.
PCE price is an index measuring the price change of consumer goods and services exchanged in the US economy in the fourth quarter of 2023, increasing by 1.8% over the same period, much lower than the level achieved in the previous quarter. 2.6%.
Thus, closing data on US gross domestic product increased compared to the same period last year, initial applications for unemployment benefits decreased, showing that the US economy is recovering positively. The decrease in PCE prices shows that the price of personal consumption goods has decreased, which will contribute to reducing inflation in the US.
According to market rules, the USD enjoyed a very good increase in the session last night - early this morning. Specifically, the Dollar-Index - measuring the strength of the greenback compared to 6 major currencies, increased quite well by 0.28% to 104,217 points.
Normally, positive economic information and the USD will cause gold prices to drop sharply. However, investors believe that when factors related to inflation decline deeply, such as PCE, it will promote the process of reducing interest rates by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) soon.
Tonight, the US will announce the PCE price index for February. Current forecasts are that all indicators of PCE in February are higher than last month. In particular, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will give a speech. Investors will look for more clues about when to cut interest rates, as well as the health of the US economy from Mr. Jerome Powell.
Currently, 71% of market forecasts are that the Fed will cut interest rates for the first time in a series of high interest rate days in June this year. Experts say that if the PCE price index falls, it could be gold. prices will increase sharply. Because it is predicted that the Fed will cut interest rates soon to support the economy. If PCE increases, the Fed may delay cutting interest rates after June as forecast.
GOLD → A false break of $2265 will lead to a retest of support FX:XAUUSD has been reaching 2265 since the open. The price is moving out of the ascending price channel, which indicates a strong bull market. But, there is a huge imbalance area forming below, which can be liquidated before further growth.
The dollar is also strengthening and the market is waiting for bullish news on the index today. In this case it may give a small correction wave for the gold market. Moreover, there is a huge area of imbalance at 2265-2222, in which case it would be logical to expect a retest of the previously broken channel resistance or even key support before a further rise.
Resistance levels: 2265
Support levels: channel resistance 2245, 2222
Technically, we can expect a correction after the rally. The trend may continue from these support zones.
Regards R. Linda!
XAUUSD Short term sell signal.Gold is trading inside a Channel Up, making today a new Higher High.
This is a sell signal, as long as the price doesn't break higher.
The minimum decline/ Bearish Leg inside this pattern has been -2.30%.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 2215 (-2.30% from the top).
Tips:
1. The RSI (4h) crossed under the MA trendline. This has been the strongest sell signal on the previous two Higher Highs.
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GOLD there is a possibility of a downward adjustment this weekOANDA:XAUUSD ANALYSIS
- Dollar down, gold up
- Gold retests prior 2024 all-time high
DOLLAR DOWN, GOLD UP
Gold is influenced by a slightly weaker dollar at the start of the shortened trading week. Last week, gold prices showed an unusual evening star pattern, which can indicate a bearish trend reversal. The dollar is possibly stabilizing after a volatile end to the week. The main event risk this week is the release of inflation data on Friday. Limited catalysts are expected until then. Friday is a bank holiday in the UK and US, which could lead to a volatile USD movement if there is unexpected data amid lower liquidity.
OANDA:XAUUSD RETESTS PRIOR 2024 ALL-TIME HIGH
Gold prices attempted to close above $2195, the all-time high printed earlier this year before the latest milestone around $2222. This appears as a test for bullish momentum with a failure to close above suggesting that bullish momentum may require another catalyst to advance the bullish move.
$2146 appears as the relevant level of support if bears are to regain control this week. To reiterate, Friday may cause elevated volatility should we see a surprise in the data – due to lower liquidity.
Pay attention to the Breakout zone 2166 - 2180
Resistance: 2180 - 2186 - 2195
Support: 2166 - 2157 - 2150 - 2145
GOLD hanging high, not far from the historical peak set recentlyThe world gold price is trading at 2,190 USD/ounce, up 12 USD/ounce from yesterday. Investors are anticipating US inflation data, which could provide insights into the US Federal Reserve's policy pivot. Despite the USD rebounding, precious metals remain near their recent historical peak.
Investors are waiting for US economic data to be released later this week to more clearly determine when the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will begin its interest rate reduction cycle.
Currently, most experts are optimistic about gold in the near future, saying that this precious metal is strongly supported by expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates this year even though inflation is still "persistent". , strong demand from central banks and fears of geopolitical tensions.
Gold reached a record high last week after the Fed suggested three interest rate cuts in 2024. However, commodity analysts are doubtful that gold can continue to rise due to its significant increase in March.
XAUUSD target hit. Now expect a 2100 reversal.Gold (XAUUSD) hit this morning our long-term 2260 Target, which we called for on our March 2021 (see chart below) idea:
That not only made a Higher High formation at the top of the 5-month Channel Up that started on the November 03 2023 Low but also hit the symmetrical 1.382 Fibonacci extension as the last Higher High on May 04 2023.
This has indeed been a long rise for Gold, which is now looking ahead of an equally lengthy correction, assuming the Channel Up and its top stay intact. If they do, we expect a 6-8 week pull-back below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and towards the 0.618 Fibonacci extension from Gold's last Low.
That gives us a 2100 Target, which could make contact with the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since November 13 2023.
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GOLD → Previously untouched terrain. Correction or growth?FX:XAUUSD is a pioneer. The price is testing new highs in a new, previously untouched zone. High interest in the metal, rumors and crisis leads to the fact that the growth of gold outpaces the growth of the dollar.
Dollar Index (D1) Breakout of resistance and news
The dollar is also rising. The price of the index has been supported by regulators for an extended period of time. The price is moving into a new range. What is interesting is that against the background of USD appreciation, gold is also rising in price. But this has its own reasons: the expectation of a rate cut, according to Powell, 3 rate cuts are expected in 2024. High interest to gold as a hedge asset, as well as the huge buyout of metal by central banks, which only fuels the price to strengthen.
Gold (H1). Key levels and technical situation
Technically, gold is at its highs. On D1 the price is testing the exit from the existing price channel. The closing of the session on Friday indicates that the market will try to move higher.
The only thing that confuses me is the price going outside the global channel on the background of distribution, the metal, from the technical point of view, has no potential to overcome this boundary from the first time. A pullback or consolidation is possible.
It is worth paying attention to two price levels: 2235 and 2222. A breakthrough of the upper boundary with the subsequent consolidation of the price above this level will continue the growth. The expected target in this case could be 2250.
A break of the lower level may activate the liquidation of buyers, which will form a correction to 2212, 2200
Regards R. Linda!
GOLD gains are limited amid a cautious marketGold prices rose slightly on Monday amid cautious market sentiment ahead of important events, such as the FOMC announcement. XAU/USD increased by around 0.2% in early afternoon trading in New York, finding support near $2,150. The Federal Reserve will hold its March meeting and may adjust its forward guidance and economic outlook due to recent inflation concerns.
The recent CPI and PPI reports show a worrying trend: disinflation progress is slowing down and may even reverse. As a result, the Fed might take a more cautious approach by delaying the shift to looser policies and reducing the scale of future easing measures. This could result in two rate cuts of 0.25% in 2024 instead of the previously projected three cuts.
FOMC MEETING PROBABILITIES
If policymakers signal a less dovish roadmap and delay the easing cycle, it could cause US Treasury yields and the dollar to rise. This may pose a threat to the current rally in precious metals, especially gold, and lead to a significant downward correction. However, if the central bank maintains its previous outlook and shows confidence in reducing borrowing costs, gold may have a better chance of moving higher. Recent data on inflation risks suggests that a dovish outcome from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is less probable.
OANDA:XAUUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Gold prices stabilized on Monday after a weak performance last week. The prices rebounded from support at around $2,150 and could potentially face resistance at the trendline of $2,175. If this resistance is overcome, attention will shift to the all-time high of $2,195.
If bears regain control of the market, the first technical floor to watch for a pullback is $2,150. Bulls need to defend this zone to prevent further selling pressure. Failure to do so could lead to a drop towards $2,085, with potential losses shifting focus to $2,065.
Resistance: 2162 - 2171 - 2177
Support: 2145 - 2135 - 2125
GOLD prices stabilize after a strong sell-offOANDA:XAUUSD AND ANALYSIS
- Gold’s backdrop remains positive and may lead to further gains.
- Retail trader positioning is 50/50.
Gold reached a new record high last week but ended the week relatively unchanged after a sharp sell-off. The Federal Reserve hinted at a potential rate cut of 75 basis points this year, which initially boosted gold. However, the US dollar strengthened towards the end of the week, putting pressure on gold prices.
While the USD strengthened, US bond yields declined in expectation of a lower Fed Fund rate. The rate-sensitive US 2 year decreased by about 14 basis points, while the benchmark US 10 year dropped by 11 basis points last week. Although a temporarily stronger US dollar may limit gold's upward potential, lower US bond yields could potentially drive prices higher and retest last Thursday's all-time high.
After completing a bullish pennant pattern last week, the daily gold chart is now looking to build another bullish set-up. The current sideways price action may turn into a bullish flag pattern, and this would likely see gold pushback above $2,200/oz. and test the ATH at just under $2,225/oz. Reasonable first-line support seen a fraction under $2,150/oz.
Note the breakout zone 2166 - 2181
Resistance: 2181 - 2188 - 2195
Support: 2166 - 2157 - 2150 - 2145
🖥 GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [March 25 - March 29]This week, international gold prices increased quite sharply from 2,145 USD/oz to 2,211 USD/oz, then decreased to 2,157 USD/oz and closed the week at 2,165 USD/oz.
The reason why international gold prices increased sharply in the first sessions of the week was because in the recent meeting, the FED said there would be 3 interest rate cuts this year, regardless of inflation remaining above the target level of 2%.
Although from now until the next June meeting, the US will have a lot of economic data, especially inflation and employment data... published, but many experts still affirm that the FED will find it difficult to delay monetary easing. bad. Because if the FED delays cutting interest rates further, it will cause the US economy to lose growth momentum and even fall into recession.
Although the economic recession depends on a number of other factors, that statistical probability also partly shows that there is a potential risk to the US economy, and the FED may have also anticipated the risk. Therefore, we will be determined to cut interest rates in the near future. And this will also be the reason for the gold price to increase even higher, although it is difficult for the gold price to avoid the pressure of adjustment and consolidation in the short term due to profit taking by investors, ETFs, especially SPDR. big profitable states.
Next week, the US will release a lot of economic data, notably the personal consumption expenditure index (PCE) - the FED's favorite inflation index. Even if PCE increases more than expected, it is not a cause for concern, because the FED has confirmed that it will still cut interest rates even if the target inflation is above 2%. Therefore, PCE may not have much impact on gold prices next week, unless this index increases dramatically.
Technically, the next support level for gold prices next week is at 2,145 USD/oz. If it stays above this level, gold prices will likely increase again next week. However, if next week's gold price is pushed below this level, it may adjust to below 2,100 USD/oz, followed by the important support area of 2,041-2,067 USD/oz.
The trading plan (reference) for next week will consider buying around 2077 and selling around the 2200 round resistance mark.
GOLD → Buyer imbalance within the range. Liquidation?FX:XAUUSD is testing resistance once again very slowly and gradually, protecting local support zones, below which a huge pool of liquidity is formed. What to expect from the market maker?
On the background of growth and retest of the range resistance we see low volumes. The range is narrowing and technically this could indicate a willingness to break resistance. But I stick to the format that the market maker is gathering all buyers to further liquidate. The chart shows localized areas of liquidity and none of them have been tested in the last 2 weeks. The market will never let the crowd make money. A retest of the far resistance is possible before further liquidation of all buyers inside the range.
Resistance levels: 2195, 2212, 2222
Support levels: 2186, 2180, 2166, 2150, 2144
Technically, there is a huge imbalance of buyers inside the range, clearly, the market maker has a "liquidate buyers" item set on the checklist. Price is still in the range, and I am still waiting for a retest of the lower liquidity areas, which for many on the current chart may seem unacceptable. Let's see
TVC:DXY COMEX:GC1!
Regards R. Linda!
XAUUSD Bullish unless this trend-line breaks.Gold (XAUUSD) is on a short-term uptrend on the 1H time-frame as it is supported by a Higher Lows trend-line since Friday's bottom. As long as this trend-line holds, we are bullish, targeting 2220 (marginally below Resistance 1).
If the price breaks and closes a 1H candle below the Higher Lows trend-line, we will see and target 2150 (marginally above Support 1).
We follow this break-out approach as it was exactly what Gold did on March 20, after it broke above the Lower Highs trend-line and turned aggressively bullish.
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A comprehensive look at gold's volatile history during crisesIt is often said that gold tends to perform well during economic uncertainty and crisis. But is this really so? Let’s examine gold's volatile history before and during recessions in the past 50 years. The 1960s and 1970s were marked by many economic and geopolitical changes, including multiple crises of the British pound, the collapse of the London Gold Pool, the suspension of a gold standard, and the end of the Bretton Woods System. These events helped to reshape the global monetary system and the role of gold within it. Before U.S. President Richard Nixon's “temporary” suspension of gold’s convertibility to the U.S. dollar, gold was pegged at $35 per troy ounce and allowed to move within a certain band around this level. However, following the breakage of the peg between gold and the U.S. dollar, gold’s price soared past levels previously thought to be unattainable. Thanks to high inflation rates, the oil crisis, and the weak U.S. dollar, gold rose more than 2,300% during the 1970s, recording a 147% increase in 1979 alone.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of XAUUSD. The green background highlights gold’s performance one year before the recession began in January 1980. The yellow background indicates recession periods, as reported by the U.S. Federal Reserve.
In the first 19 days of January 1980, gold rose another 54%, hitting an all-time high of $873 per troy ounce. In the next 66 days, gold plummeted 48% to $473. From lows on 27th March 1980, gold gained over 65%, stopping at $748.50 on 22nd September 1980. After that, gold declined until 21st June 1982, erasing nearly 60% of its value before staging a temporary rally. Nevertheless, it was only two years after the recession, on 25th February 1985, that gold finally bottomed out at $282.60.
Illustration 1.02
Illustration 1.02 portrays the daily graph of XAUUSD. The red background indicates gold’s performance one year before the recession began in July 1990. The yellow background shows the recession period.
After bottoming out in 1985, gold rallied nearly 80% by mid-December 1987. But the next few years saw gold underperform and plunge 31%. The decline halted on 14th June 1990, at $348.20. Following that, gold’s price started to appreciate, rising 22% in the next two months, hitting a high of $425 on 21st August 1990. Yet, it was only a brief rally again, and gold soon reversed the trend. Gold lost more than 23% in the next three years, dropping to a low of $325.8 per troy ounce on 10th March 1993. Another three years were carried in a similar volatile manner, with gold rising nearly by one-third and then reversing and declining to merely $252.10 on 22nd August 1999.
Illustration 1.03
The image above shows the daily chart of XAUUSD. The red background illustrates gold’s performance one year before the start of the recession in March 2001, and the yellow background indicates a recession period.
After soaring 35% from 1999 lows in less than two months, gold shocked precious metal investors when it reversed and began a slow decline that lasted until the start of the 2001 recession; in fact, gold nearly took out 1999 lows in early 2001. During the recession, gold had a run-up of 12% and continued to soar to new heights after its end. By the next recession hit in late 2007, gold doubled in price.
Illustration 1.04
Illustration 1.04 displays the daily graph of XAUUSD. The green background shows gold’s performance one year before the start of the recession. The yellow background highlights the recession period.
From its peak in March 2008, gold lost approximately 34% until its low of $681.50 on 24th October 2008. Yet, despite this massive decline, gold bottomed out before stocks and soared more than 180% until hitting a peak in September 2011.
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DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
