GOLD goes down when the USD reverses to increase in priceGold price today, March 22, suddenly went down in the context of the USD reversing its price and US stocks rising sharply.
After setting a record level of 2,211 USD/ounce in last night's trading session, today's world gold price plummeted 30 USD to 2,181 USD/ounce at 6:00 a.m. on March 22.
Gold prices weakened today in the context of the Swiss National Bank suddenly reducing interest rates. Meanwhile. The Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged. As a result, investors focus on holding USD, helping this currency increase in price, which is detrimental to the gold market.
Another development is that after the US announced it was ready to reduce interest rates three times in 2024, the US stock market continued to increase sharply. Many people have moved their equity capital, causing very little money to flow into precious metals. Today's world gold price drops by dozens of USD/ounce, which is inevitable.
After the Fed meeting, gold prices are expected to reach the resistance level at $2,222/ounce. If this level is surpassed, it is likely that prices will reach between $2,228 - $2,234/ounce. In the long term, the Fed plans to cut interest rates three times this year starting in June, which will lead to a decline in USD compared to other currencies.
Resistance: 2188 - 2195
Support: 2172 - 2168 - 2152 - 2145
Gc1
GOLD continued to decline compared to the previous sessionWorld gold spot price is around 2,165 USD/ounce, down more than 16 USD/ounce compared to the same time yesterday morning.
Gold prices on the international market continue to decline because the USD has not stopped its rise. Specifically, the Dollar-Index - measuring the strength of the greenback compared to 6 major currencies, increased sharply by 0.42% to 104,075 points at 6:05 a.m. this morning.
The USD benefited from positive economic and employment information in the US in February, despite the US Federal Reserve (Fed) announcing that it would reduce operating interest rates this year.
The positive recovery of the US economy has helped investors escape capital from precious metals such as gold - an asset that ensures capital safety - to invest in profitable assets such as stocks and bonds.
On March 21, the Dow Jones industrial index set a new peak, increasing nearly 0.7% to 39,781.37 points, the S&P 500 index increased 0.3% to 5,241.53 points, and the Nasdaq technology index Composite increased 0.2% to 16,401.84 points.
Investors turned to investing in risky assets such as stocks, which shows that the market is somewhat reassured when the US economy remains strong despite interest rates remaining at a 20-year high and the Fed expected to cut reduce interest rates this year.
GOLD → Trading inside the range. Target is support FX:XAUUSD is trading inside the range. The markmet-maker is liquidating sellers relative to the 2180-2200 area, after which it forms a false breakdown of 2195 and returns to the range again.
On D1 everything is the same. The market continues to form a sideways range. There are no reasons for the price to leave 2195-2144. After testing the upper part of the range, the market still has targets below 2166, especially the area of the lower boundary of the flat, as there is a huge amount of liquidity hidden there, which is clearly of interest to traders. Consolidation below 2180 may favorably influence the price down to 2166. A break of 2166 will send the price to 2150 and 2144.
Resistance levels: 2180, 2186
Support levels: 2166, 2150, 2144
Technically, the local trend is neutral. It is acceptable to trade both buying and selling. But the market has an unclosed gestalt within the range trading: liquidity area 2150-2144
TVC:DXY COMEX:GC1!
Regards R. Linda!
GOLD → Range trading. What is the importance of the 2144 area?FX:XAUUSD is trading inside the global range, forming a small flat inside. Consolidation continues and at the moment there is no reason for the price to leave the 2195-2144 channel.
On D1 and H4 we see a sideways channel, a range. The market is clearly bullish, but at the moment the price is standing still. On the left side of the chart we see local liquidity zones, which the market maker will gradually reach. But, the most interesting thing is that the main gestalt is not closed yet: the strong support at 2144 has not been tested yet, and neither has the liquidity in this zone. On H1 we see an upward movement. The target of such a move could be the 2180-2185 area, or range resistance with a subsequent decline to targets below. A standard trading situation inside the range is being formed.
Resistance levels: 2186, 2180, 2195
Support levels: 2166, 2150, 2144
Within the mentioned flat, the price is trading between the zones, levels, forming consolidation. There is an important area inside the range, which has not been tested yet, hence, the market may head from the resistance to the indicated liquidity zone below
COMEX:GC1! TVC:DXY COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
Regards R. Linda!
XAUUSD: Break-out trades only for lower risks.Gold is consolidating on the 4H timeframe, which is accurately depicted on the neutral technicals (RSI = 52.765, MACD = 2.520, ADX = 28.648). Such sideways price action is best traded on a breakout approach. If the LH is crossesd, we will buy and target the recent High (TP = 2,220). If the HL 1 or 4H MA100 is crossed under (whatever takes place first), we will sell and target the HL 2 trendline (TP = 2,120).
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GOLD → Trading within the range between levels FX:XAUUSD is forming a correction after a false breakdown of the resistance of the range. Against the backdrop of a strengthening dollar index, pressure from resistance appears in gold.
The market is starting to bet that the Fed will not cut rates this year. At the same time Bostic (Fed) said he now expects only one Fed rate cut this year following Powell's comments about a pledged 0.75% cut in 2024.
Gold on D1 in the 2195, 2148 range. The candlestick setup is bearish and most likely inclined to see the decline continue. The target in this case is the area of 2150-2145. On H1, the market is forming pressure from sellers on the background of strengthening dollar index.
Resistance levels: 2172, 2177
Support levels: 2166, 2156, 2150, 2144
Technically, within the range gold may test the liquidity area 2150-2145 as it is a tidbit for both market maker and traders at the moment
TVC:DXY COMEX:GC1!
Regards R. Linda!
GOLD remained motionless ahead of the Fed meetingThe Federal Reserve will announce its March monetary policy on Wednesday. Experts expect the benchmark rate to remain unchanged, along with the quantitative tightening program. The focus will be on forward guidance, with the Fed likely stating that they won't lower borrowing costs until there is more confidence in inflation reaching 2 percent.
The Fed may raise its GDP and core PCE deflator forecasts due to economic resilience and persistent price pressures. This could lead to a reduction in expected rate cuts for 2024 from three to two.
The following table shows projections from the December FOMC meeting.
If the Federal Reserve signals a greater inclination to exercise patience before removing policy restraint and shows less willingness to deliver multiple rate cuts, we could see U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar charge upwards in the near term, extending their recent rebound. Meanwhile, stocks and gold, which have rallied strongly recently on the assumption that the central bank was on the cusp of pivoting to a looser stance, could be in for a rude awakening (bearish correction).
Resistance: 2166 - 2175 - 2182
Support: 2146 - 2140 - 2137 - 2125
XAUUSD Short term pull back initiated.Gold has been rejected at the top of the 6 month Channel Up.
A similar rise in magnitude (+11%) took place on the first bullish leg of this Channel Up and then pulled back to the 1day MA50 and hit the 0.382 Fibonacci level.
The 1day RSI is already on a Bearish Divergence.
Sell and target 2115 (0.382 Fib) for the short term.
Previous chart:
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GOLD → Retest of liquidity area before further growth FX:XAUUSD corrects after testing $2222. News on Thursday shook the market after Powell's dovish statement on Wednesday, which spurred a false breakdown and a 2.5% fall
Yesterday the market met a bullish wave of news for the US market: Initial Jobless Claims down, PMI up, overall this is a locally positive scenario, but today at 13:30 Powell speaks, who can probably remind some of the things he said on Wednesday.
Technically, gold is forming a retest of the 2166 support, which prepares us for a continuation of the decline that could happen before the news to test the strong liquidity area. But, Powell's speech may refresh traders' memory again. In this case, the market may resume the growth phase again, as the general fundamental background for gold is favorable for further growth.
Resistance levels: 2172, 2183
Support levels: 2166, 2152, 2144
Now on H1-H4 a range is forming and price is heading towards support - a classic trading strategy inside a range is to trade from its boundaries. Pay attention to today's speech of the Fed Head. His words can both cheer you up and shock you ;)
CAPITALCOM:DXY CAPITALCOM:GOLD COMEX:GC1!
Regards R. Linda!
GOLD Fed in spotlight – Bullish explosion or crash ahead?OANDA:XAUUSD OUTLOOK
- Gold prices retreated this week but are still up more than 5% in March
- The Fed’s monetary policy announcement will take center stage in the coming week
Gold prices (XAU/USD) fell 1.05% this week to $2,155 due to higher U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar. However, gold has maintained strong bullish momentum in March, with a gain of around 5.5% and recent all-time highs.
Earlier this month, gold prices surged as investors anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The rally further intensified after Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that policymakers were close to gaining confidence in the inflation outlook. However, recent consumer price data suggests that progress on disinflation may be stalling or reversing, causing a shift in the market sentiment for gold.
With inflation risks emerging and reflected in recent CPI and PPI reports, the central bank may adopt a more cautious stance, indicating the need for patience in removing policy measures. This could result in fewer rate cuts than initially expected. The Federal Reserve's plans will be clarified next week when they announce their March decision. While policy settings are anticipated to remain unchanged, there could be revised guidance and forecasts based on new macroeconomic information, as data-dependency is a key principle.
In the latest Summary of Economic Projections, the Fed hinted that it would deliver 75 basis points of easing this year and market pricing has converged to this estimate of late. If policymakers were to indicate an intention to deliver fewer cuts than what’s currently discounted, we could see bond yields and the U.S. dollar push higher. This should be bearish for gold prices.
OANDA:XAUUSD FORECAST - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Gold prices fell this week, but managed to hold above support at $2,150. Bulls must actively protect this technical zone to prevent an escalation of selling pressure; failure to do so may trigger a pullback towards $2,085. In case of further weakness, the spotlight will be on $2,065.
On the flip side, if buyers regain decisive control of the market and spark a bullish reversal from the metal’s current position, the first obstacle lies at the record peak established earlier this month at $2,195. Further upward movement will draw attention to trendline resistance near $2,205.
Resistance: 2160 - 2165 - 2173
Support: 2146 - 2135 - 2125 - 2100
XAUUSD: Top is in. Targeting 2,055.Gold has had a strong rally after holding the 1W MA50 on the week of February 12 2024 and remains almost overbought on its 1W technical outlook in the past three weeks (RSI = 68.498, MACD = 43.750, ADX = 37.013). The grand pattern on 1W has been a Channel Up dating back to late 2019. As shown on the chart, the last two HL were on the 1W MA50 and 1W MA200 respectively, indicating a healthy long term uptrend.
Since March 2022 however, every time the 1W RSI reached the overbought 70.000 level, it was a Sell Signal. This time the price has even breached the 0.786 Fibonacci level, as it did on March 7th 2022. The minimum retrace on such a signal has been -7.59%. This is what we are aiming for (TP = 2,055) and potentially we may see a close contact with the 1W MA50 near that level. Basically all corrections inside the Channel Up have hit the 1W MA50.
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GOLD → New Horizons. Price opens a new rangeFX:XAUUSD is getting a good medium-term signal on Powell's words yesterday. Metal is trampling its way into new horizons and probing new highs. Today the market is waiting for Initial Jobless Claims and PMI.
M1 timeframe is pointing us to the approximate medium term potential which is capped at $2380-2400, price has entered a new bullish range. Yesterday's news from Powell gives the market the realization that the overall situation is improving and the time when the dollar will start to slacken on the back of rate cuts is getting closer. On the background of the news, investors continue to buy gold even more, as well as central banks of many leading countries of the world, which only favorably influences the price.
Resistance levels: 2212, 2222
Support levels: 2200, 2195, 2175
Technically, the gold may test the support before rising further. The trend is strongly bullish. The liquidity area at 2195 plays an important role at the moment on the background of today's news, which is published at 12:30 GMT
TVC:DXY COMEX:GC1! CAPITALCOM:GOLD
Regards R. Linda!
🖥 GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [March 18 - March 22]After increasing to 2,195 USD/oz last week, this week's gold price continuously adjusted from 2,188 USD/oz at one point to 2,150 USD/oz and closed at 2,156 USD/oz.
Gold prices have increased sharply in recent times mainly due to purchases by central banks and investors buying gold in anticipation of the FED reducing interest rates next June. Therefore, the rising inflation data has reduced this expectation, causing them to sell gold to take profits to hedge against risks.
Next week will be a big challenge for gold prices when the FED will meet to discuss monetary policy and make economic forecasts. Any rhetoric to push back interest rate cuts could create some selling pressure on gold prices next week.
Although at next week's meeting, the FED may not continue to postpone the interest rate cut date beyond June, it may be difficult for gold prices to avoid continued adjustment pressure due to the possibility of ETFs. will continue to sell gold, while investors also make similar moves to hedge against risks before the FED meeting.
📌Technically, on the D1 technical analysis chart, the price is starting to show signs of a correction, and this correction may find its way back to the support area of 2090-2100, around the 50 Fib mark of the Fib Retracement, also around moving average EMA34 D1.
The trading plan for next week will consider selling around 2200, buying around 2090.
XAUUSD Starting a new Mega Cycle. One last pull-back in order?Two weeks ago (March 07 2024, see chart below) we explored the possibility of Gold (XAUUSD) starting a new cyclical Mega Rally on the 1W time-frame after the recent bounce on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line):
This has turned out to be the reality as Gold closed a 1W candle above the Resistance Zone. That is the first signal of the start of the new Mega Cycle and it will get confirmed if the price closes a 1M candle above the Resistance Zone in 10 days time, which is at 2150. If not, one final test of the 1W MA50 before a new All Time High (ATH), may be in order.
Until then, we need to consider the implications shown on the 1D time-frame, where the dominant pattern is a Channel Up. As you can see, the current Bullish Leg has so far repeating the previous one very closely and we are at the (blue) Channel Up stage that may price the new Higher High near the 1.382 Fibonacci extension from the previous High. The 1D MACD invalidating a Bullish Cross, confirms that we may be in a similar situation as on April 04 2023.
As long the 2145 Support holds, we expect 2260 as a Higher High, which should of course close the 1M candle above the Resistance Zone, indicating that the new cyclical Mega Rally may start earlier, without a 1W MA50 (red trend-line) pull-back.
If however the 2145 Support breaks, the above gets invalidated and we will have a sell confirmation. In that case, we will turn bearish, targeting the 1W MA50 and 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) on the Internal Higher Lows trend-line (as on June 29 2023) with 2035 as our Target.
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GOLD had its first weekly decline in 4 weeksGold prices stabilized on Friday (March 15) but recorded their first weekly decline in four weeks, as investors lowered expectations for US interest rate cuts after data this week showed pressure. price increases.
At the end of the trading session on March 15, the spot gold contract was almost flat at 2,159.99 USD/oz. This week, the gold contract lost 0.8%, recording the first weekly decline since mid-February 2024, after reaching a record high of 2,194.99 USD/oz last week.
Gold futures contracts retreated 0.3% to 2,161.5 USD/oz.
This week's data shows that CPI consumer prices in the US increased stronger than forecast in February and PPI producer prices also show that inflation is somewhat stable.
Gold is already pricing in any positive boost it can get from expectations that interest rates will fall… if inflation starts to rise again, that means policymakers will have to maintain Tighter monetary policy for longer periods of time.
Higher-than-expected inflation maintains pressure on the Fed to keep interest rates high, thereby putting pressure on gold. Non-yielding precious metals are also used as an inflation hedge.
The USD index saw its strongest weekly increase since mid-January 2024, making gold more expensive for foreign buyers.
GOLD → Waiting for the news. What are the odds of a fall ↓ ?FX:XAUUSD is trading under resistance pressure. The market is still forming a downward correction channel after a strong rally. Ahead of important news that will determine the medium-term outlook.
The price is testing the correction resistance, but at the same time sellers are still holding the market back. Buyers do not let the price go beyond 2145-2150, thus a bearish pattern like a descending triangle is formed on the chart. The market still has a chance to break the support and this set-up has a high probability.
The news is coming and everyone is waiting for what Powell has to say about the rate and inflation. His words may determine the medium-term outlook for the market.
Resistance levels: 2160, 2163
Support levels: 2152, 2144, 2125
I am still inclined to believe that we have a fall ahead of us (globally - false breakdown of 2145-2150). Before that, on the background of news, the price may retest the resistance. The main prospective target is the price decline on the background of strengthening of the dollar index.
Regards R. Linda!
GOLD → Correction + bearish set-up. What to expect from XAU?FX:XAUUSD is being held very tightly within the downward correction channel. The fundamental background on the market is weak, at this time the dollar is growing, which in general negatively affects the price of metal.
Set-up on H4 shows us a strong resistance on the market. In general, this is due to the negative fundamental factor because of the economic news, which generally supports the dollar index. There is a pattern forming on the chart that could break the support formed in December 2023 (2145-2150) In this case a false breakout could occur. Statistically, the strongest moves occur after a false breakout. A breakout and consolidation below 2145-2150 may initiate a strong decline to the liquidity areas indicated on the chart.
Resistance levels: 2156, SMA
Support levels: 2144, 2125, 2100, 2075
I expect a retest of 2145-2150 with a bounce. If the price quickly returns to this support, the chances of a breakout will then increase. Fundamentally and technically, the gold market is showing weakness, so we should expect a negative scenario at the moment
TVC:GOLD COMEX:GC1! MCX:GOLD1! TVC:DXY
Regards R. Linda!
GOLD → The correction continues. Test of strong support FX:XAUUSD continues to form correction. Price has been breaking through support since the open and is testing the key liquidity area formed on Dec. 4 $2,145 - $2,150
Overall, the price is not ready to go above the made high. Yes, there was an earlier breakout of the resistance level from December 2023, but there seems to be pressure from the resistance side of the market, this could be due to a strong seller or still no buyer. The candlestick setup indicates that the market is getting ready to go back beyond 2145-2150 and head towards lower zones like 2125, 2100, 2075.
On H1, a bounce is forming within the descending channel, the price may test the moving average zone or even the resistance zone of the channel before resuming the decline.
Resistance levels: 2156, 2162, 2172
Support levels: 2144, 2125
I expect a retest of resistance or moving averages after which the correction will resume. But the breakthrough of 2145-2150 may turn into a change of the local trend
TVC:DXY TVC:GOLD COMEX:GC1! COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
Regards R. Linda!
Gold price coils furtherOANDA:XAUUSD Analysis and Chart
- Gold trading on either side of $2,165/oz. but a break may be near.
The latest US PPI data – wholesale inflation - came in above market expectations, and last month’s print, but the dollar and US rate cut forecasts, remain little changed. US Retail Sales in February picked up, turning positive, but again missed market forecasts.
With the greenback barely moving, gold has found it difficult to make a move, one way or the other. This period of consolidation is starting to look like a new bullish pennant formation, although it will need another couple of candles to see if this plays out. If this pattern is formed, gold is likely to push further ahead and make a fresh record high. Support is seen at $2,148/oz. ahead of $2,128/oz.
Retail trader data show 40.95% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.44 to 1.The number of traders net-long is 1.53% higher than yesterday and 2.21% lower than last week, while the number of traders net-short is 1.91% higher than yesterday and 6.62% higher than last week.
On the weekly timeframe, XAUUSD is holding the ascending channel and approaching the resistance zone at 2280, which coincides with the channel's upper limit and the 100% Fibonacci extension. If XAUUSD sustains above the 2070 support zone, further upside to the 2280 Resistance Zone is possible.
Conversely, a break below the 2070 support could prompt a further decline towards the 1950 support, coinciding with the lower boundary of the channel.
Resistance: 2170 - 2175 - 2185
Support: 2146 - 2135 - 2125
GOLD → Setting and background foreshadowing the decline FX:XAUUSD is updating the global maximum. The distribution stops. The market goes into correction state. But, what is also interesting, a setup is forming on the chart, foreshadowing a support breakout.
Let's briefly discuss the current situation in gold, without a long rant. The upcoming week is full of news. FED & FOMC meetings and Powell's speech are the ones to pay attention to, as inflation, interest rate and other nuances that determine the medium-term outlook may be discussed.
Technically, gold is entering a correction phase. If we take a closer look at H1, we can see a descending triangle pattern. The character of the pattern is "support breakout, reversal and decline". This pattern can be interpreted as the presence of a strong seller or the absence of a buyer.
Resistance levels: 2160, 2166, 2173
Support levels: 2155, 2147, 2100
The market is waiting for a correction, which is evidenced by the fundamental background, technical analysis and candlestick patterns. There is a high probability that the support may be broken with the subsequent correction towards the mentioned liquidity areas
CAPITALCOM:DXY MCX:GOLD1! COMEX:GC1! TVC:GOLD
Regards R. Linda!
GOLD turning down after a series of "shocking" increasesFORECAST OANDA:XAUUSD – MARKET PSYCHOLOGY
Retail trading activity shows a net short bias in gold, with the ratio between bearish and bullish positions currently at 1.47:1 as of late Tuesday afternoon.
Overall, bullish bets on precious metals are 9.67% lower than yesterday and 12.80% lower than they were popular a week ago. Meanwhile, bearish bets are down 0.31% from the previous session and 13.15% higher than last week.
Gold prices declined in the context of the latest report showing that the US consumer price index (CPI) increased by 3.2% over the same period last year, higher than experts' forecast of an increase of 3.2%. first%. The core CPI in February increased by 3.8% compared to the expected increase of 3.7%.
In the medium and long term, the Fed will enter a cycle of interest rate cuts and precious metals will be strongly supported. However, gold prices have increased very strongly since the end of 2023 and in the first 2 months of 2024. The possibility of gold prices continuing to skyrocket is no longer highly appreciated.
Recently, many forecasts say that gold will increase in the second half of the year but at a slow pace. Most likely, gold price will reach 2,200 USD/ounce.
In the short term, gold may face selling pressure to take profits. Although optimistic about gold's prospects, investors should be sensitive to the market's current speculative position.
Speculative traders can reverse their positions very quickly if the market begins to turn.
Resistance: 2170 - 2181 - 2190
Support: 2145 - 2137 - 2125
GOLD → Retest of resistance before further decline FX:XAUUSD continues to trade within the counter-trend correction channel. Another resistance retest is being formed, and the market is under pressure from the resistance.
Gold has a neutral-negative fundamental background due to a wave of positive news in the US market. The dollar is strengthening a bit, which generally forms a resistance pressure on the gold. At the same time GOLD-ETF sell-offs continue. Technically, on H1 the price is testing the resistance of the descending channel, the fundamental background is negative and most likely, the decline may continue from the upper boundary of the channel. The market maker may form a false breakdown of resistance before further decline.
Resistance levels: 2175
Support levels: 2144, 2125
There are no reasons for growth continuation. Funamental and technical factors indicate a high probability of further decline. There is no news today, the market should be more or less calm.
COMEX:GC1! COMEX_MINI:MGC1! NCDEX:GOLD TVC:DXY
Regards R. Linda!
GOLD rally will continue amid aggressive US interest rate cutsOANDA:XAUUSD ANALYSIS AND CHART
- US rates markets fully price in a 25 basis point in June.
- The path of least resistance for gold remains higher for now.
The latest Fed commentary has led to financial markets pricing in a 25bp interest rate cut at the June 12th FOMC meeting. Three more rate cuts are also expected in 2024, with a high likelihood of a fourth cut. It's time for the US central bank to take action.
The US economic calendar has important releases next week, with the US inflation report on Tuesday being the most notable. The latest comments from the Federal Reserve indicate that they are satisfied with the current disinflationary trend. A significant increase in either of the year-on-year inflation figures would be needed to alter or postpone the Fed's plan for interest rate cuts.
The daily gold price chart is moving higher into new territory. Despite being overbought according to the CCI indicator, the daily candle setup remains positive. In the past six sessions, gold has consistently risen from the previous day's closing price, making it challenging for short-term sellers to enter the market. There may be a brief period of consolidation with solid support levels at $2,100/oz. and $2,081/oz., but gold is expected to continue rising in the coming weeks.