Gc1
XAUUSD Retracement almost completed. Sell opportunity.Gold (XAUUSD) took advantage of the lower than expected U.S. CPI and rose aggressively back above both the Channel Down and the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) but not before hitting our Lower Low target within the Channel Down (see chart below):
Even though this rise is more based on fundamentals than technicals, the price is approaching the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level where the previous Channel Down break-out formed a top and reversed (September 01 2023). If fundamentals continue to influence the market more, then we might see Gold rise a little more, until the 4H RSI gets close to 80.00, but the upside is limited. You can start selling with a first short-term target the 0.236 Fib ay 1947.50.
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GOLD | US Dollar Freefalls After CPI IndexUS DOLLAR, PRICE FORECAST OANDA:XAUUSD
- The US dollar fell as yields fell following lower-than-expected US inflation data
- Gold prices hit key technical levels in both cases
US Treasury yields fell sharply on Tuesday after weaker-than-expected US consumer price index data reduced the likelihood of further tightening by the central bank and weakened its ability to keep interest rates at high levels for long periods of time.
The move in the fixed income space has left the broader US dollar reeling, with the DXY index falling more than 1.5%, its worst daily performance since November 2022. Against this backdrop, The euro and the British pound broke out to the top, hitting multi-week highs against the greenback.
Gold prices also posted solid gains and attempted solid consolidation, a bullish technical signal.
With traders declaring victory in the fight against inflation and predicting sharp interest rate cuts in 2024, recent market moves could gain traction and consolidate in the near term . This could mean further falls in yields and the US dollar, along with additional gains in precious metals and stocks.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OANDA:XAUUSD
After a few days of weakness, gold performed a bullish reversal on Tuesday, bouncing off cluster support at $1,940/$$1,950. If the price successfully builds on this upward momentum, initial resistance lies at $1,975/$1,980. A break above this ceiling could open the door for a rally to $2,010/$2,015.
Conversely, in case sellers regain control of the market, the main support level will extend from $1,950 to $1,940. While gold could establish a base within this range during a pullback, a break could set the stage for a drop to $1,920, followed by $1,900.
GOLD keep going upToday's world gold price listed on Kitco is at 1,962 USD/ounce, up 12 USD/ounce compared to early yesterday morning. Precious metal prices continued to increase in the context of the USD falling quite quickly from 105.7 points to 104.8 points at the beginning of the trading session on the US market.
Besides, the US consumer price index remained unchanged in October and core inflation showed signs of slowing down. CPI increased by 3.2% compared to the same period last year. This level in September was 3.7%.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, after the inflation report was released, the market predicted a 100% chance that the US Central Bank would keep interest rates unchanged in December compared to 86% before the inflation report.
GOLD | Very sensitive to the upcoming CPI reportOANDA:XAUUSD , NASDAQ 100 FORECAST
- Gold prices and Nasdaq 100 will be very sensitive to the upcoming US inflation report
- The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release October consumer price index data on Tuesday
- Headline CPI is forecast to increase 0.1% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year. Meanwhile, the core index is expected to come in at 0.3% monthly and 4.1% annually
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release consumer price index figures on Tuesday morning. With the Federal Reserve so sensitive to incoming information and aware of the risk of rising inflation, the latest CPI report will carry more weight in the eyes of financial markets. This could mean more volatility in gold and Nasdaq 100 prices in the coming trading sessions.
In terms of estimates, headline CPI is forecast to rise 0.1% on a seasonally adjusted basis in October. This would push the annual rate to 3.3% from 3.7% previously. Meanwhile, the core gauge, which excludes food and energy, is forecast to rise 0.3% on the month, with the related 12-month index unchanged at 4.1%.
UPCOMING DATA
The Fed took a data-focused stance and noted it would “proceed carefully.” Despite this cautious approach, the organization has not completely closed the door on additional policy consolidation, with Chairman Powell indicating that officials are not confident that they have reached a sufficiently restrictive stance To bring inflation back to 2.0% and further progress in reducing price pressures is needed. Not guaranteed.
Taken together, Powell's comments suggest that the FOMC is not following a predetermined path and is prepared to respond appropriately to adverse developments that could hinder the implementation of its mandate. Against this backdrop, any deviation of the October CPI figure from consensus expectations could prompt policymakers to advocate another rate hike at one of the upcoming meetings of the Federal Reserve. Surname.
FOMC MEETING PROBABILITY
If interest rate expectations change to be more hawkish due to the hot CPI report, US interest rates will rise, boosting the US dollar. This, in turn, could put downward pressure on gold, Nasdaq 100. The opposite is also true; An unexpected surprise in last month's inflation data would support precious metals, tech stocks by capping yields and weakening the argument for higher prices for longer.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OANDA:XAUUSD
Gold has reversed losses this month after failing to reach a key ceiling in the $2,010/$2,015 area. If the price turns bullish and consolidates decisively above this technical indicator, initial resistance will emerge at $1,980, followed by $2,010/$2,015.
On the other hand, if sellers reappear and reignite bearish pressure, the initial floor to watch would lie at $1,935. While gold could gain a foothold in this zone on the downside, a violation of the downside could send gold down to $1,920. Below this threshold, attention turns to $1,900.
GOLD waiting for a chance to reverseToday's world gold price listed on Kitco is at 1,946 USD/ounce, up 7 USD compared to early yesterday morning. Precious metals inched up slightly as investors waited for US inflation data this week to evaluate the interest rate roadmap of the US Federal Reserve (Fed).
If data shows higher-than-expected inflation, gold is likely to fall again as that increases the likelihood of another interest rate hike, experts said. However, if the data is right, gold could trade at $1,950.
Gold fell 3% last week and lost more than $60 as safe-haven demand cooled and as Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's hawkish comments pushed back any expectations of interest rate cuts.
XAUUSD: Bullish Divergence on 4H.Gold turned bearish on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 43.890, MACD = -0.091, ADX = 34.371) after the November Channel Down almost hit the 4H MA200. It hit our 1,935.50 TP nonetheless (see previous signal at the bottom), and now the short term is giving us a buy signal in the event of a break over the Channel Down.
The 4H RSI holds a HL trendline which is a Bullish Divergence against the LL of the Channel Down. Consequently we will open a long if the price crosses over the top of the Channel Down, which is highly likely ahead of the U.S. CPI report tomorrow, and target a Triple Resistance level, the 4H MA50, the R1 and the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement (TP = 1,965).
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Gold is giving up some of its October 2023 gainsIn tandem with our expectations, we saw gold give up some of its gains after an impressive rally last month. Currently, it trades near $1,938 per troy ounce. Although we remain bullish in the long term, we are still unconvinced about a straight path higher in the short term/medium term. In fact, we believe gold has a chance of continuing lower, especially if the stock market starts weakening again. This view is also supported by technical indicators like RSI, Stochastic, and MACD on the daily chart, which are growing increasingly bearish. Consequently, we would not be surprised if gold dived below $1,920 and potentially tested an important psychological support at $1,900.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of XAUUSD and simple support/resistance levels derived from particular peaks and troughs.
Technical analysis
Daily = Slightly bearish
Weekly = Neutral
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
GOLD | After a week of falling pricesOANDA:XAUUSD had a tough week and ended at a new three-week low as investors moved away from safe-haven assets and into more risk-on markets. Higher bond yields also pressured the precious metal which is currently testing a series of technical levels.
The US dollar had a confusing week as US Treasury yields fell, then spiked and ended the week near their highest level of the week. Chairman Powell's hawkish comments that he was unsure whether the Fed had enough capacity to contain inflation sent bond yields higher, while the US 30-year bond auction was extremely weak. The US has pushed yields even higher. The US dollar followed moves in the US bond market and ended the week high.
OANDA:XAUUSD could adjust back below 1,900 USD/ounce. Conversely, the precious metal could also break new levels above $2,000 an ounce which could give traders the confidence to push prices even higher, at $2,050 an ounce.
GOLD turn on the increase right at the beginning of the sessionThe world gold spot price on the Asian market is around 1,941 USD/ounce, up nearly 3 USD/ounce compared to last week's closing session. The price of gold delivered according to the contract this morning reversed and increased by nearly 2 USD/ounce to 1,944 USD/ounce compared to the previous session's close.
World gold prices reversed to increase at the beginning of the morning session because the market was concerned that the world's second largest economy, China, was entering a state of deflation.
Specifically, last weekend, Trong Quoc announced that the consumer price index (CPI), China's main measure of inflation in October 2023, decreased by 0.2% over the same period last year. The CPI only increased again in August and September, while July still decreased by 0.3%.
After this information, HSBC Bank released analysis that China's deflation has caused difficulties for exporters to this country in Southeast Asian countries, Korea, Taiwan and Germany.
Experts say that deflation in China comes from excess capacity in manufacturing factories, which is pushing down global prices of manufactured goods. China's economic deflation puts strong pressure on regional and global economies.
Investors are concerned that deflation in the world's second largest economy will make global economic growth difficult in the near future, increasing risks, so they have stepped up gold purchases.
GOLD a miserable weekClosing the weekly trading session, world gold price stood at 1,938 USD/ounce, down sharply to 54 USD/ounce compared to last week's closing session. For the whole week, gold decreased by up to 3% in value, marking the worst week of price decline in the past 6 weeks.
There are no new developments in tensions in the Middle East, the USD continues to strengthen, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) maintains a "hawkish" stance,... are factors that have a negative impact on gold prices. world last week.
Gold's safe-haven demand is weakening as conflict tensions in the Middle East are not changing much. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's statements that the central bank is still willing to raise interest rates have a big impact on gold. Unless new developments change this view, gold will witness another slight price decline next week.
$GLD Cup & Handle Monthly Chart### Technical Analysis Update: AMEX:GLD Cup and Handle Formation on Monthly Chart
The SPDR Gold Trust ETF ( AMEX:GLD ), which tracks the price of gold, is exhibiting a notable pattern on its monthly chart known as a 'Cup and Handle' formation. This pattern is of keen interest to technical analysts and investors, as it often signals a bullish continuation trend.
#### Understanding the Cup and Handle Formation
The Cup and Handle is a bullish chart pattern that resembles the shape of a tea cup. This formation typically occurs in an uptrend and is indicative of a consolidation period followed by a breakout.
1. **The Cup**: This is formed when the price first experiences a gradual decline, followed by a stabilization and a rise back to the original starting point. The price movement during this phase should be rounded and shallow rather than a sharp V shape, and it usually spans several months to a year. For AMEX:GLD , the cup formation suggests a period of consolidation after an initial sell-off, followed by a gradual and steady recovery to the previous highs.
2. **The Handle**: Following the cup, a small downward drift in the price forms the handle. This is typically a retracement that does not go below the half-way point of the cup. The handle represents a final consolidation or a shakeout of less committed traders before a potential breakout. It's often seen as a bullish flag or pennant.
#### Implications for AMEX:GLD
For AMEX:GLD , the appearance of a Cup and Handle pattern on the monthly chart is significant. It indicates that after enduring a period of correction and consolidation, the ETF is potentially gearing up for a continuation of its prior uptrend.
#### Key Points to Watch
- **Breakout Point**: The critical level to watch is the resistance line formed at the top of the cup. A convincing breakout above this level on increased volume could signal the continuation of the bullish trend.
- **Handle Formation**: The depth and duration of the handle are crucial. It should not drop significantly into the cup and should show signs of stabilizing or minor retracement.
- **Volume**: A genuine breakout is often accompanied by higher-than-average trading volume, adding confirmation to the pattern.
#### Trading Considerations
Investors and traders considering positions in AMEX:GLD should closely monitor the completion of the handle and the subsequent price action. A breakout above the cup’s rim could offer a potential entry point, while a failure to break above or a drop below the handle might necessitate a reassessment of the bullish hypothesis.
As with any technical pattern, it's advisable to consider the Cup and Handle formation in conjunction with other fundamental and market factors. This comprehensive approach helps in making more informed investment decisions.
XAUUSD Is the pull-back completed?Almost 10 days ago we made a bold (at the time) bearish call (see chart below) for a short-term pull-back on Gold (XAUUSD) towards the 1W MA50:
The yellow metal has so far responded positively to this call as it dropped below the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) to 1945. The Channel Down pattern that emerged is using the 4H MA50 as its Resistance/ Lower Highs trend-line and until it breaks, we should be expecting a continuation. Oversold 4H RSI readings will always give technical bounces like yesterday's but as long as the 4H MA50 holds, it is more likely to see Gold test the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) on the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level at 1933. If the 4H MA50 does break and closes a candle above it, we will buy and target 1995.
Notice how the Channel Down pull-back is similar to the declines of July - August, May and April. The 4H MA50 served as the Resistance and in the case of April, it did test the 4H MA200.
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GOLD | Perk Up, Palladium in Freefall, Key LevelsUS DOLLAR FORECAST – OANDA:XAUUSD
- The U.S. dollar, as measured by the DXY index, rallies on soaring U.S. bond yields
- Powell’s hawkish comments reinforce the greenback’s advance
- This article examines Gold prices from a technical standpoint, analyzing key levels to watch in the coming days
The US dollar started off the day quietly but gained momentum later due to higher yields and weak demand for US government securities. Fed Chair Powell's comments during an IMF panel also boosted the dollar. He expressed concerns about achieving their inflation target and mentioned the possibility of higher rates in the case of stronger economic growth. As a result, the DXY index rose by almost 0.4% for the day.
Powell's comments imply the central bank is not fully convinced the rate hikes are finished. Another hike may be possible next month or in January, especially if financial conditions continue to improve as they have been since late October.
Traders should stay alert to economic data releases, especially the October consumer price index survey next Tuesday. Analysts predict a 0.1% rise in headline CPI and a 0.3% increase in the core gauge, both maintaining yearly rates.
The Fed's sensitivity to incoming information and concerns about inflation make any upward deviation in official data from consensus estimates likely to increase bond yields and support the case for higher interest rates for a longer period. This would have a positive impact on the US dollar, but a negative impact on gold.
OANDA:XAUUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Earlier this week, gold faced a setback when it failed to surpass the $2,010/$2,015 range. However, prices have rebounded after finding support around the 200-day moving average. Thursday saw a modest advance and if gains continue, resistance is at $1,980. Further strength would bring focus back to $2,010/$2,015.
On the other hand, if the bears stage a comeback and propel prices downward, the first area to keep an eye on is $1,945. Although gold might find support in this region during a retracement, a breakdown could pave the way for a slump towards $1,920. Below this threshold, the spotlight turns to the psychological $1,900 level.
GOLD leaving the previous optimistic positionOn the world market, gold price reached 1,959. Investors await a speech from US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell for more clues about interest rates. Following gold's sharp rally, some traders have moved away from their previously bullish positions, as market participants assess the risks of a broader conflict in the Middle East, while the downside less prevents cash flow into safe-haven assets.
Gold investors will start looking at economic data, potential action from the US Central Bank, and gold will react based on whatever the data brings. Therefore, it is difficult for gold to gain momentum if data does not show economic weakness. Although October was a historic month for the gold market as the precious metal saw record high closing prices, more factors are needed to create a sustained push in the market.
XAUUSD Bearish inside a Channel Down.Gold is trading inside a Channel Down, under the MA50 (4h).
The price recovered today as it made a Lower Low on the Channel's bottom after the RSI gave a Bullish Divergence and the MACD eventually formed a Bullish Cross.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell as long as the price closes under the Resistance level and the MA50 (4h).
Targets:
1. 1935 (Support 2).
Tips:
1. The RSI (4h) is under a Falling Resistance since October 20th. Sell if it stays under.
2. Further validation for a sell, when the MACD (4h) forms a Bearish Cross.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
GOLD | $1950 Key Support Approaches Bears Eye Further DownsideOANDA:XAUUSD PRICE FORECAST:
- Gold Continues its Move Lower as the $1950 Area Comes into Focus.
- DXY Could Resume its Move Lower as Key Resistance Level Holds Firm.
Gold prices are down due to hawkish comments from Fed policymakers, dampening hopes that the Fed is finished. Market participants were hoping for a different tone from Fed Chair Powell at the central bank conference, but he did not address monetary policy. However, there is still a chance he may discuss it tomorrow.
US DOLLAR INDEX RECOVERY FACES KEY RESISTANCE
The Dollar Index is struggling at the 105.63 resistance level, hindering its recovery. Fed policymakers Kashkari and Bowman suggest further rate hikes due to a strong economy. Fed Chair Powell's comments on monetary policy tomorrow will be worth noting. The Michigan Consumer Sentiment preliminary numbers on Friday could also impact the US Dollar.
Based on the CME FedWatch tool, expectations for another rate hike by policymakers have not significantly changed. The market still predicts a 90% probability that rates will remain unchanged at the December meeting. It is unlikely that this will change based on the remaining events this week.
OANDA:XAUUSD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Form a technical perspective, Gold continued its decline toward the psychological $1950 level. A break below the $1950 opens the door for a return to $1900 but there will be some key support tests that will need to be navigated first.
The $1930 support are being the most prominent. It did appear as though we may have a golden cross pattern and that may still occur but we it would require a recovery first.
Key Levels to Keep an Eye On:
Resistance levels: 1968.55 - 1980.00 - 2000.00
Support levels: 1950.00 - 1930.00 - 1900.00
GOLD price continues to declineOn the world market, the price of gold reached $1,954. The dollar rose 0.3% after hitting a six-week low in the previous session, making gold more expensive for buyers with other currencies. Besides, after increasing so strongly in a short period of time, the gold market shows signs of quietness. Investors are more cautious, so the market needs to be consolidated.
Market analysts said that the gold market is waiting for more dovish signals from the US Central Bank before recovering. Gold prices are consolidating after slipping into overbought territory. Gold rose more than 7% in October as conflict in the Middle East boosted safe-haven demand. Besides, the gold market is looking for a new catalyst, after quiet trading last weekend.
GOLD | May Get Boost from Macro TrendsOANDA:XAUUSD OUTLOOK:
- Gold and silver prices have retreated in recent weeks, but their outlook remains constructive
- If bond yields continue to push lower, precious metals could shine heading into 2024
- This article explores XAUUSD key levels to watch this week
Gold prices have fallen in the past few weeks due to the easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and reduced demand for safe-haven assets. The situation has not escalated into a broader conflict involving other countries like Iran or Lebanon. Instead, traders have turned their focus to the bullish stock market, causing a shift away from non-yielding assets.
Despite recent market dynamics, there are reasons to be optimistic about precious metals. One catalyst for their prices could be the pullback in rates, especially if the correction accelerates in the near term.
OANDA:XAUUSD PRICE TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Gold has seen a modest retreat in recent days after failing to take out resistance in the $2,010/$2,015 range late last month. If losses deepen in the coming trading sessions, support appears at $1,960, followed by $1,945. While there's potential for the metal to find stability in this area before making a comeback, a breakdown could open the door for a move toward $1,920.
On the other hand, if the bulls engineer a resurgence and propel prices upward, overhead resistance is located at $2,010/$2,015 as mentioned earlier. Upside clearance of this technical barrier would reignite bullish sentiment, setting the stage for a rally towards $2,060. On further strength and sustained momentum, buyers may gain the confidence to challenge this year's high at $2,085.
GOLD precious metals continue to declineToday's world gold price listed on Kitco is at 1,968 USD/ounce, down 11 USD/ounce compared to early yesterday morning.
Precious metal prices continued to decline as the USD in the international market increased sharply. The DXY index, which measures the movement of the USD against a basket of 6 major currencies, increased from 105 points to 105.7 points.
The USD's strong recovery has taken away gold's appeal for buyers holding other currencies.
Carlo Alberto De Casa, market analyst at Kinesis Money, said the gold market is waiting for more dovish signals from the US Central Bank before recovering. He added that gold prices are consolidating after sliding into the overbought zone. Gold rose more than 7% in October as conflict in the Middle East boosted safe-haven demand.
Gold Futures ~ November TA Outlook (4H Intraday)COMEX:GC1! chart mapping/analysis.
Note: TradingView chart B-ADJ adjusted for contract changes
Gold Futures holding bullish consolidation after epic rally since early October due to Middle East tensions triggering a "Flight to Safety" trade + institutional short covering.
Wait & see approach whether Gold will continue to climb higher within ascending parallel channel (green), or capitulate to refill the breakout gap, TBC.
GOLD | $1980 Support Break Eyed, Do Bears Have the Momentum?PRICE FORECAST OANDA:XAUUSD :
- Gold consolidates above key support as yields rise and psychological limit gains improve.
- DXY is trying to recover from Friday's sell-off.
Gold prices are consolidating after another attempt at $2000/oz on Friday. Despite the weaker US dollar, we are seeing a slight recovery in US bond yields and an improvement in risk appetite, which will certainly limit gains in the precious commodity.
The $2000/oz level remains a challenge for Gold, despite the weakening Dollar. Gold's safe-haven appeal may be fading. There is growing optimism that conflict in the Middle East can be avoided. Last week, the Fear and Greed index started at 30 and is now at 42.
Gold may be supported by the appeal of holding precious metals and a weaker US dollar. However, to sustain a break above $2000, continued weakness in US data is needed to confirm that the Fed has made up its mind. USD weakness and weaker US fundamentals could push Gold higher.
Improved sentiment and risk appetite could push Gold prices down to $1,950. There is also a $1,843/oz price gap that still needs to be closed, but it could take a long time to do so.
RISK EVENTS AHEAD
Over the next 48 hours, several Federal Reserve policymakers will speak. Fed Chairman Powell will close with comments on both Wednesday and Thursday. It will be interesting to see if there are any efforts to dampen market optimism that the Fed will raise interest rates. It is worth noting the comments of Fed policymaker Thomas Barkin, as he stated that it is too early to make assumptions about the Fed's outlook in December. Two more inflation reports are expected ahead of the Fed meeting, this will be very important.
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK OANDA:XAUUSD
From a technical perspective, Gold needs to maintain support above the $1977-1980 level on the daily timeframe to continue its upward momentum. However, there is notable selling pressure around the $2000/oz mark, as multiple attempts to push prices higher have failed. Friday's daily candle also showed a significant increase in wick, suggesting ongoing selling pressure above and around the $2000/oz mark.
The bullish structure remains intact as long as the daily candle does not close below the $1,968 support zone. It is possible that we could dip slightly below the $1,980 support level before bouncing back from the $1,968 area and towards the psychological level of $2,000/oz. The mixed signals are due to the uncertain macro and geopolitical situation, causing volatility and instability in 2023.
Key Levels to Keep an Eye On:
Resistance levels: 1992.89 - 2000.00 - 2008.00
Support levels: 1977.00 - 1968.00 - 1953.00