SELL XAUUSDAs you can notice on the chart, there's a BB the market gave us, you can sell and set your SL and TP as shown on the chart.
Gc1
XAUUSD The 1D MA50 test is imminent.Three weeks ago (August 26, see chart below) we called that it was 'time to turn bearish short-term' on Gold (XAUUSD) as the price was approaching the top of its 3-month Channel Up:
Today we realize why as the price has turned sideways and can potentially one Bearish Leg to test the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which last time signaled the pattern's bottom (Higher Low).
This is why we keep our Sell Target unchanged at 2450, just above the 0.618 Fib and a revised Channel Up bottom line. After that, we will buy just before the 1D MACD forms its 2nd Bullish Cross, which as you can see, has been the most optimal confirmed Buy Signal within the Channel Up.
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👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Sep 09 - Sep 13]This week, international gold prices fell from 2,507 USD/oz to 2,471 USD/oz in the first sessions of the week. After that, gold price recovered to 2,529 USD/oz, then dropped to 2,485 USD/oz and closed this week at 2,497 USD/oz.
Recent US economic data has played an important role in shaping developments in the gold market.
The US August jobs report fell short of expectations. While economists predicted 160,000 new jobs would be created in August, the actual number was only 142,000 jobs. However, the published data was lower than forecast but still higher than the previous period.
The US unemployment rate in August decreased slightly from 4.3% to 4.2%. But this is still high compared to the 3.8% rate recorded a year ago.
These labor market figures, along with recent US inflation reports, have reinforced expectations that the Fed is about to cut interest rates. This prediction is further fueled by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's statement at the Jackson Hole Conference on August 24, in which he noted that it is time for monetary policy to adjust.
In the medium and long term, many economic experts believe that gold prices will increase sharply because the more the FED cuts interest rates, the more the USD and US Treasury bond yields will weaken, increasing the appeal of gold. . Furthermore, central banks have been and are continuing to buy gold reserves.
Technically, there is no debate about the uptrend of gold as the Weekly time frame technical chart clearly shows this. However, this rising wave is reaching the resistance level around the fibo expansion mark at fibo 161.8. In theory, it is possible that the price reaching this mark will have reversal phases, which are corrective declines to consolidate the uptrends. next bullish period. The next fibo milestone will be around 2,590-3,000 usd/oz.
Next week, the market will pay attention to US August CPI data, and the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy meeting.
📌Currently, considering the H4 technical chart, the gold price is still moving sideways in a wide range, specifically fluctuating from 2,470 - 2,530 usd/oz. If the resistance level of 2530 is broken, in the immediate future the gold price will rise around the round resistance level of 2600. In case the support level of 2470 is broken, the gold price will fall back to around the threshold of 2,430 USD/oz.
Notable technical levels are listed below.
Support: 2.500 – 2.503 – 2.530USD
Resistance: 2.484 – 2.470USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2591 - 2589⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2595
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2429 - 2431⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2425
Is there an AI bubble around the corner?Are semi conductors forming a rounded top or will they bounce on the trend support line? If you are even asking yourself if this is a serious question you are probably already late. get your calls asap. don't wait for the trend line support bc semi conductors are leading the way into AI. looking at the 265 calls sept 27 at the open on monday...
Smart Money Positioned to SHORT Gold - COT StrategyDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence.
COT Strategy
SHORT
Gold (GC)
My COT strategy has me on alert for short trades in GC if we get a confirmed bearish change of trend on the Daily timeframe.
COT Commercial Index: Sell Signal
Valuation: Overvalued vs Treasuries
Extreme Positioning: Commercials around max short of last 2 years = bearish.
True Seasonal: Seasonal down to October.
Supplementary Indicators: %R & Momentum (not yet confirmed)
Remember, this is not a "Short Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the downside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the downside.
Good luck & good trading.
Outlook for new era level, most important data of the weekOANDA:XAUUSD remains in a strong uptrend after yesterday's breakout, an outlook for a new bull run and weekly target levels. On this trading day, the market will receive the most important data of the week and will create major fluctuations in the entire financial market in general, and the gold market in particular.
On Thursday, as weak US ADP jobs data weighed on the US Dollar, gold futures broke out strongly towards the weekly target level.
The United States releases the ADP jobs report on Thursday, showing private sector employment rose by a seasonally adjusted 99,000 in August, a new low since January 2021, lower many expected and months before.
Today (Friday), the market will receive the US nonfarm payrolls report for August.
Surveys show the number of nonfarm workers in the United States is expected to increase by a seasonally adjusted 160,000 in August, following an increase of 114,000 in July.
Investors also need to closely monitor US unemployment data. Surveys show the US unemployment rate is expected to fall to 4.2% from 4.3% in August.
If the unemployment rate in August is equal to or higher than July, gold prices will receive important fundamental support due to the possibility that the Fed will cut interest rates even more sharply, which could completely push up gold prices. all-time high or refresh all-time high.
On the other hand, if non-farm payroll data is lower than expected or equal to the previous month, gold prices will be strongly supported by this when both employment data and unemployment rate are released at the same time.
The current basic trend of gold will still maintain an uptrend when supported by most macroeconomic conditions such as geopolitical risks with many potential driving forces for price increases, supported by the path of policy changes of the Government. Fed and the weakening of the USD as well as US bond yields.
The basic picture will shape the trend for quite a long time, but it will be the main trend that shapes all technical changes.
Analysis of technical prospects for CITYINDEX:XAUUSD
Gold is still aiming for the weekly upside price target presented to readers in Sunday's weekly edition, and as price activity is above the 0.786% Fibonacci extension it should qualify for a bullish outlook. in short term.
On the other hand, the Relative Strength Index is pointing up but still quite far from the overbought level, showing that there is still wide room for price growth ahead.
As long as gold remains above the EMA21, within the price channel and above the 0.786% Fibonacci level, it is still trending up in the short term.
More broadly, as long as gold remains within the price channel, any pullback should be considered a technical correction and not the primary trend.
During the day, the rising prospect of gold prices will be noticed by the following levels.
Support: 2,503 – 2,500USD
Resistance: 2,531 – 2,544USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2533 - 2531⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2537
→Take Profit 1 2526
↨
→Take Profit 2 2521
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2496 - 2498⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2492
→Take Profit 1 2503
↨
→Take Profit 2 2508
GOLD corrects, recovers and stabilizesOANDA:XAUUSD recovered and stabilized after a significant correction yesterday. At one point, gold dropped sharply by about 33 US Dollars, but up to now, the recovery momentum has helped gold return to a short-term technical uptrend.
The August manufacturing PMI index released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) on Tuesday remained below 50, a sign of economic slowdown. However, the employment component of the report improved slightly.
ISM manufacturing PMI rose to 47.2 from 46.8 in August, below expectations of 47.5.
After the release of the ISM report, US 10-year Treasury yields (US10Y) fell, leading to a weakening of the USD. Affected by the decline in US bond yields and the USD, gold prices recovered after hitting a low of 2,473 USD/ounce.
This week will continue to be highly volatile due to the impact of a series of US economic data with the release of JOLTS job openings, ADP employment changes and non-farm payrolls (NFP) data to be released.
• JOLTS U.S. job openings are expected to be 8.1 million in July, down from 8.184 million in June.
• US ADP employment growth in August is expected to increase to 150,000 from 122,000 in July.
• In addition, employment growth in US non-farm payrolls in August is expected to increase from 114,000 to 163,000, while the unemployment rate may decrease from 4.3% to 4.2%.
If the US jobs report is weaker than expected, it will prompt market assessments of faster interest rate cuts to reappear, which will further support gold prices and continue to create pressure on investors. with USD.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, although gold had a significant correction decline in yesterday's trading session, on the daily chart, the gold price still has enough room to rise, as it receives support from the confluence area of EMA21, Fibonacci extension 0.618% and the bottom edge of the price channel, a very important area for the short-term uptrend was noticed by readers in a short comment yesterday.
In the short term, if gold moves above the 0.786% Fibonacci extension level, there will be conditions for a new bullish cycle and the upside outlook for the weekly target is fixed at 2,531 – 2,544USD.
As long as gold remains above the EMA21, and within the price channel, it remains technically bullish in the short term. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index is showing signs of bending and pointing up, a signal that the bullish outlook is becoming positive.
During the day, gold's uptrend is noted by the same technical levels.
Support: 2,471 – 2,484USD
Resistance: 2,500 – 2,503USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2516 - 2514⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2520
→Take Profit 1 2509
↨
→Take Profit 2 2504
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2459 - 2461⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2455
→Take Profit 1 2466
↨
→Take Profit 2 2471
Jobs data is coming, GOLD recovers around 2,500USDOANDA:XAUUSD continues to recover significantly after a sharp adjustment at the beginning of the week, fueled by lower economic data that means the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates more aggressively in the near future. On this trading day (Thursday), the market will receive the release of ADP employment data, which is expected to buck short-term trends.
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) released Wednesday by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed the number of job openings fell to 7.67 million from a downward revision. 7.91 million last month. Data were below expectations of all expected surveys.
The JOLTS job vacancy report was one of the labor force indicators that U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen valued most when she was chair of the Federal Reserve. This index is also labor market data that the Fed is very interested in. Readers can refer to the fact that the Fed has recently mentioned a lot about employment issues, by most important officials.
The US employment change (ADP) report, initial jobless claims and nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report will be released later this week.
This trading day the market will first pay attention to the US ADP data, which will continue the important data week and provide short-term trends.
US ADP employment growth in August is expected to increase to 150,000 from 122,000 in July.
Additionally, U.S. nonfarm payrolls job growth in August is expected to increase from 114,000 to 163,000, while the unemployment rate could fall from 4.3% to 4.2%.
If jobs data is weaker than expected, this will continue to push gold prices higher and create pressure on the USD.
Employment data has been closely watched so far, but in this period it will be even more important because it is a visible "directional arrow" to evaluate the path of interest rate cuts by the Reserve. United States of America.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
Gold remains stable with the main uptrend in the short, medium and long term. After receiving support from the key confluence area noted by readers in the previous issue at the 0.618% Fibonacci extension, EMA21 and the lower edge of the price channel, it rose to reach the recovery target level. initial price point at 2,500USD.
Looking ahead, if gold manages to move above the $2,500 base price and break above the 0.786% Fibonacci extension it would qualify for a weekly upside target of $2,531 in the short term and beyond to 2,544USD.
During the day, the bullish outlook for gold prices remains unchanged at notable levels and will be listed for readers as follows.
Support: 2,484 – 2,471USD
Resistance: 2,500 – 2,503 – 2,531USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2516 - 2514⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2520
→Take Profit 1 2509
↨
→Take Profit 2 2504
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2459 - 2461⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2455
→Take Profit 1 2466
↨
→Take Profit 2 2471
SELL XAUUSDAs you can notice on the chart, we have a BB which is our entry and a LQ Pool below which is our target. You can sell now and set your TP and SL as shown on the chart.
The comment section is all yours for further questions!
Gold, copper, silver: A hard or soft-landing conundrumMetals were all lower on Tuesday as investors braced for a hard-landing scenario. But not all metals fell equally. We take a look at gold, silver and copper to sort the longs from the shorts, depending on which variant of an economic landing we could be facing.
GOLD → Change of Mood (local). Correction phaseFX:XAUUSD is breaking the structure of the ascending channel amid the counter-trend correction of the dollar (fundamental reasons). Price closes in the range of 2526 - 2477, what could this mean?
On D1, the market is bullish both locally and globally. But, fundamentally and geopolitically the situation is slightly changing, which favorably affects the dollar exchange rate, against which gold goes into a local phase of correction. There is low liquidity in the market today due to the closed US market.
On H1, the focus is on the resistance 2505 - 2510, sma. False breakdown and price consolidation below these zones will confirm the absence of bullish potential, which may lead to price correction towards the lower boundary of the key range.
Support levels: 2483 (D1), 2493, 2477
Resistance levels: 2505, 2510, sma
The focus is on the global range 2526 - 2477, the price continues to trade inside and does not hint at a possible exit from this channel, accordingly, it is best to use the inturidian trading strategy. The main target is liquidity below the key support zones
Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ FX:XAUUSD ;)
Regards R. Linda!
SELL XAUUSDEarlier I shared to sell XAUUSD but since the market haven't reached our entry, and it came to our BB, that means the market is now heading towards the liquidity area to make the next move.
**The analysis is a little bit late since I can't share it at the same time I'm giving it to my customers.
Follow for more!
SILVER'S TIME to TAKE BREATHER Fundamentals:
Bricks buying and geopolitical tensions have kept Gold price elevated pulling up the silver price with it. I believe the Bricks meeting this Sept to be a selling event given that all of the purchase goals (for now) will be met by the meeting. Gold is the stronger of the two metals. I am leaning short Gold but I think silver has more downside potential given recessionary woes (industrial applications).
Seasonal and Election: Looking back Sept-Oct are typically down months for metals.
Technicals: The price is now up against heavy supply zone and major $30 psychological level.
There is a head and shoulders pattern (4r) forming inside of a much larger head and shoulders pattern (2day) (See previous post). At the moment the price has failed to pop back up above the 4hr MA. It may recover. However, I will be selling into strength inside of the the supply zone with a stop on a 2day close above the $30.50 level.
Fed Thoughts: The market has all but priced in a rate cut at this point. Every movement this year has been predicated on them (despite never materializing). I am of the belief that the cut itself will be a selling event regardless of whether or not we get a short lived rally.
Expression: Given that I am skeptical on equities and bearish Silver I will be shorting SILJ given that it has a history of outperforming to the downside on Silver draw downs. In addition, the upside/risk is limited (as much as it can be haha). Major funds are not investing in juniors. They have and will put capital into majors like GOLD and NEM if metals continue to push higher. In addition, miners are not experiencing the upward pressure that Gold and Silver have because central banks and foreign buyers (the reason for the rally in metals) are NOT buying miners, they are buying physical metal. PAAS is also a strong short candidate. It is a basket case (major earnings miss) and will outperform to the downside.
BUY XAUUSDAs you can notice on the chart, we have the market now playing ayound the Sell Stops area, our entry, TP and SL are gonna be on the levels shown on the chart.
Follow fore more!
XAUUSD Our 2600 long-term Target is intact.It has been almost 2 months since our long-term buy signal on Gold (XAUUSD) where within the overall Channel Up, we called for the start of the new Bullish Leg (July 08, see chart below):
It is time to update this as the price is getting closer to our 2600 Target. A weekly pull-back within the Bullish Leg is to be expected and then final run to 2600 (could even be higher).
The symmetry inside the Channel Up has been remarkable and what's standing out has been the % pull-backs and waves of the smaller Channel Ups (Bullish Legs). As long as the 1D MA100 (red trend-line) held, the trend pushes for a Higher High. When it broke (closed a 1W candle below it), we had a long-term correction.
As a result, we stay committed to our 2600 Target and then will buy if the price pulls back near it but will take then loss and reverse to a sell if we get a 1W candle closing below it (and target the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line)).
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👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Data Week, attention to jobs gets special attention from the FedOANDA:XAUUSD fell about 1% as the USD and US Treasury bond yields increased sharply after US inflation data matched expectations over the weekend. However, as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut policy in September and geopolitical tensions still pose many risks, gold still has a lot of potential fundamental support.
Gold prices closed slightly lower last week but still maintained the 2,500 USD/ounce mark. This week, investors will receive US ISM data and non-farm payrolls reports, which are expected to cause major fluctuations in the gold market.
The latest data released by the US Department of Commerce showed that the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.2% last month, in line with economists' forecasts.
Meanwhile, tensions in the Middle East have boosted safe-haven demand for gold. Signs of steady buying from central banks in emerging markets also supported prices.
Also notable is data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showing that as of the week of August 27, speculative net long positions in COMEX gold futures contracts increased 69 lots to 236,818 lots.
Next Tuesday, the US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for August will be a highlight in US economic data in the early days of the week.
The market expects the overall PMI to rise to 47.8 from 46.8 in July. If the index is above 50, that could directly boost the US dollar and put pressure on gold in the short term.
ADP employment changes and ISM services PMI data will also be released on Wednesday and Thursday, but the market reaction to these data is likely to be immediate and short-lived. A positive surprise data will support the USD and negative data pressure the USD ahead of the widely anticipated August jobs report next Friday.
US nonfarm payrolls (NFP), due out next Friday, are expected to increase by 163,000 in August after a disappointing increase of 114,000 in July. The unemployment rate is expected to fall to 4.2 % from 4.3% and wage inflation, measured by changes in average hourly earnings, is expected to increase 0.3% from the previous month.
NFP data next week will be the main focus, because during the Jackson Hole conference, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and other members also focused a lot on employment data in the near future. It is expected that next week the market will have significant turbulence when NFP data will be the center of the big storm.
Economic data to watch this week
Tuesday: US ISM Manufacturing PMI
Wednesday: Bank of Canada monetary policy meeting, US JOLTS vacancies
Thursday: ADP employment data; US ISM services PMI, US weekly initial jobless claims
Friday: US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) Data
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
Although gold had a correction late last week, overall the daily chart of gold prices still shows a solid uptrend.
With the price channel making an upward trend in the short term, as long as gold remains in the price channel and above the EMA21 moving average, it still has the potential to increase in price in the near future, with targets still being fixed at 2,531USD in the short term and more to the point of 2,544USD.
Although the Relative Strength Index is pointing down, it has not yet reached the overbought level before turning down, and the slope is negligible, so this is not considered a signal of pressure and support. for this Indicator is noted at 50%.
The fact that gold closed above 2,484 USD and the original price level of 2,500 USD shows a positive technical outlook, and the uptrend in the near future will be noticed again by the following price points.
Support: 2,500 – 2,484USD
Resistance: 2,531 – 2,544USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2551 - 2549⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2555
→Take Profit 1 2544
↨
→Take Profit 2 2539
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2512 - 2514⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2517
→Take Profit 1 2505
↨
→Take Profit 2 2495
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2484 - 2486⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2479
→Take Profit 1 2489
↨
→Take Profit 2 2494
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2470 - 2472⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2467
→Take Profit 1 2475
↨
→Take Profit 2 2494
Downside Ahead for Gold - COT Strategy SellDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence.
COT Strategy
SHORT
Gold (GC)
My COT strategy has me on alert for short trades in GC if we get a confirmed bearish change of trend on the Daily timeframe.
COT Commercial Index: Sell Signal
Extreme Positioning: Most short Commercials have been since January 2021. Large specs longest they have been since March 2020.
OI Analysis: Price upward consolidation since April has seen Commercials heavily selling = bearish. Large Specs at longest positioning since March 2020 = bearish.
Valuation: Overvalued VS Treasuries
True Seasonal: Strong seasonal tendency for gold to go down in September
Spread: Bearish spread divergence
COT Small Spec Index: Sell Signal
Supplementary Indicators: Acc/Dist, %R & Stochastic Sell Signals.
Remember, this is not a "Short Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the downside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the downside.
Good luck & good trading.
GOLD accumulates with an overall upward trendOANDA:XAUUSD decreased again, after yesterday's recovery and the market in general is still accumulating with an upward trend both fundamentally and technically.
At the Asian session on August 30, as of the time this article was completed, gold was trading at about 2,513USD/oz, a decrease equivalent to more than 7 dollars on the day and about 0.31%.
Investors are awaiting data on US PCE inflation, the Fed's preferred inflation measure.
At 19:30 Hanoi time today (Friday), US personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price data for July will be published, which may provide further assessment of the pace of rate cuts in September, including the pace of the upcoming rate cut cycle.
Surveys show the US PCE price index is expected to rise 0.2% monthly in July, after rising 0.1% in June.
The US PCE price index is expected to increase at an annual rate of 2.6% in July, following a 2.5% increase in June.
In terms of core data, the survey shows that the US core PCE price index in July is expected to increase 0.2% month-on-month, after increasing 0.2% in June; increased at an annual rate of 2.7%, compared with a 2.6% increase the previous month.
As the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, year-over-year changes in the core PCE price index have a larger impact on policymakers.
From a technical perspective, the technical structure has not changed throughout the past week and readers can review this week's most recent publications below.
The target for the week remains unchanged for gold to surpass its all-time high of $2,531 and refresh its new all-time target of $2,544.
During the day, the technical prospect of gold price increase will be noticed again by the following price levels.
Support: 2,503 – 2,500 – 2,484USD
Resistance: 2,531 – 2,544USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2551 - 2549⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2555
→Take Profit 1 2544
↨
→Take Profit 2 2539
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2482 - 2484⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2478
→Take Profit 1 2489
↨
→Take Profit 2 2494
GOLD → Inside the key range. Emphasis on MA-200 ↑FX:XAUUSD is once again testing the resistance of the 2531 range, but is not able to overcome it yet. At the same time the dollar is forming a flat in anticipation of important news....
“Dovish” expectations of the Fed and persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East will continue to support the price of gold. The Israeli army mobilized thousands of soldiers from special units in preparation for a major operation in the northern West Bank.
Despite the bullish sentiment around the gold price, the upcoming Fedspeak could have an impact on the markets.
Technically, the market is in a strong bullish trend, another range is forming and price is confirming its boundaries. Focus on trend support and SMA-200 on H1. If trend support fails to hold the price, gold may reach the lower end of the range, after which it will continue to rise.
Resistance levels: 2517, 2531
Support levels: MA-200, trend, 2501, 2493
As long as the gold is within the ascending channel, we should consider long positions against the support. But if MM decides to lower the price, we should wait for correction to liquidity zones and count on growth from 2486, 2477.
Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ FX:XAUUSD ;)
Regards R. Linda!
Positive technical position, GOLD will pay attention to US PCEFinancial markets in general are closely watching key inflation data from the world's largest economy for clues about the scale of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in September. PCE data by The US release on Friday will also be the main data focus this week.
With an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September almost certain, attention also turns to the pace of future adjustments, and how intense they will be.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market is pricing in a 65.5% chance of the US cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September and a 34.5% chance of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points.
Investors are now awaiting US personal consumption expenditures (PCE) data released on Friday.
If Friday's PCE data is lower than expected, it could fuel expectations of a more dovish Fed, creating bullish potential for gold. And even if the PCE is higher than expected, it won't change the outlook for a Fed rate cut in September, so a higher-than-expected increase in PCE would only be temporary. limit the upward momentum of gold prices, or create short-term corrections that do not fundamentally affect the main uptrend.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold remains stable with near-term bullish conditions despite a sudden short-term correction yesterday that did not affect the technical uptrend.
The structure has not changed with an uptrend in both the short, medium and long term with the short-term trend being noticed by the price channel and the 21-day moving average (EMA21). The fact that gold remains above the 0.786% Fibonacci extension is a positive factor for the bullish price target noticed by readers in the weekly publication at 2,531 USD in the short term, more than the level of 2,544 USD.
The relative strength index (RSI) is pointing up but has not yet reached the overbought level, showing that there is still a bit more room for price increases. As long as gold remains within the price channel, declines should only be considered a short-term correction and a short-term buying opportunity.
During the day, the technical prospect of gold price increase will be noticed again by the following price levels.
Support: 2,503 – 2,500 – 2,484USD
Resistance: 2,531 – 2,544USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2521 - 2519⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2525
→Take Profit 1 2514
↨
→Take Profit 2 2509
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2482 - 2484⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2478
→Take Profit 1 2489
↨
→Take Profit 2 2494
Gold shows signs of exhaustion at its record highGold may have reached a record high on Tuesday, but it then handed back more than half of the day's gains to leave a long upper wick. The ATH met resistance at the weekly R2 pivot and the daily RSI (2) has formed a bearish divergence in the overbought zone.
A momentum shift can be seen at the ATH on the 1-hour chart. A bearish divergence has also formed on this timeframe. The bias is to fade into retracements within yesterday's range to target the 2540/45 range, near the 50-bar EMA and HVN (high-volume node).
GOLD is supported, Powell is dovish, geopolitics is complicatedWith the impact of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's dovish comments, the USD continued to be less attractive and gold returned to closing weekly above the original price of 2,500 USD, opening up a positive outlook for the following week.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Friday that it is time to adjust policy, signaling that an interest rate cut is imminent. This can be considered the strongest signal of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's interest rate cut. And of course that is enough for gold to continue to increase in price.
Quoting Powell: "The time to adjust policy has come. Confidence that inflation is heading towards 2% has increased. We do not seek or welcome further cooling in the labor market. We will do so." everything possible to support the labor market and get there."
New geopolitical point
According to Israeli media reports, an Israeli air force control tower on Mount Melon in northern Israel was attacked by Hezbollah missiles, with one missile fired directly at the facility. Israel has carried out a series of attacks in southern Lebanon in recent times.
However, hopes for an agreement faded when Israel and the Palestinian group Hamas blamed each other and failed to reach an agreement after more than 10 months of war in the Gaza Strip.
Ongoing geopolitical tensions have reinforced gold's status as a safe-haven asset, and ongoing global instability has prompted investors to turn to gold to seek protection from market risks and fluctuations. As these tensions continue to increase, gold prices will receive even more support.
Main basic focus
Overall, the gold market is currently fully supported fundamentally, with the USD having a weaker future as the Fed's interest rate cut time approaches, and the cutting cycle will last longer. not ending soon or just a short-term adjustment.
On the other hand, geopolitical developments are more complicated with prolonged wars in Ukraine - Russia and the Gaza Strip,... is also a very important factor promoting safe haven psychology, gold is known as a valuable asset. The most effective communication shelter.
Overall, in a simpler way, in the long run, gold will continue to have a basic upward trend, even when the geopolitical conflict cools down, which will only create short-term profit taking. In the coming time, the Chinese Central Bank will likely reduce the amount of physical gold purchases in the second half of the year and will focus more on gold ETF purchases, and this should be considered a solid support move when China China is the world's leading gold user and hoarder along with India.
Data focus this week
The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis will release July personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index data next Friday, which is the Fed's preferred measure of inflation.
Higher than expected data could be seen as a supportive move for the USD in the short term, while lower or equal data is expected to continue to support gold prices higher into the end of next week.
Additionally, US GDP data on Thursday could also bring some volatility to the market.
The economic calendar needs attention this week
Monday: US durable goods orders
Tuesday: US consumer confidence
Thursday: Weekly unemployment claims, US second-quarter preliminary GDP
Friday: US PCE index
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold continued to close above the $2,500 raw price after receiving support and a post-corrective recovery from the 0.618% Fibonacci extension and the $2,484 technical level acting as the closest support for short-term uptrend.
The overall chart still shows that gold has all the technical conditions for an uptrend in the long, medium and short term with the long-term trend being noticed by the price channel and medium-term support from the EMA21 along with the trend. short-term from the price channel. As long as gold remains within the price channel, it still has a bullish outlook in the short term, with the weekly close above the 0.786% Fibonacci level, next week's uptrend will be directed towards $2,531 in the short term and more than 2,544USD.
The level of 2,544USD will still be the target for price increases in the near future. On the other hand, the Relative Strength Index is pointing up without reaching the overbought level, showing that there is still technical room for price increases to be achieved. the above mentioned goals.
In the coming time, the uptrend of gold will be noticed by the following price levels.
Support: 2,503 – 2,500 – 2,484USD
Resistance: 2,531 – 2,544USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2548 - 2546⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2552
→Take Profit 1 2541
↨
→Take Profit 2 2536
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2493 - 2495⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2489
→Take Profit 1 2500
↨
→Take Profit 2 2505
GOLD has corrections near record highs, main trendAfter Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell gave a dovish signal, the market has finished pricing in an interest rate cut in September. At the same time, gold continues to be supported by safe-haven demand Due to geopolitical risks in the Middle East and Ukraine, gold prices are making certain adjustments near record highs.
Last Friday, Mr. Powell supported the impending interest rate cut, saying that the continued cooling of the job market would not be positive and this is notable support that is easy to see. for gold in the current situation.
Gold is a notable example where geopolitical risk aversion increases investor demand for safe-haven assets.
• Israel and Lebanon's Hezbollah fired rockets at each other over the weekend in one of the biggest border clashes in more than 10 months.
Hezbollah fired hundreds of missiles and drones into Israel early Sunday morning, and the Israeli military said to prevent a larger attack, it used about 100 warplanes to attack. Lebanon.
Top US generals said on Monday that the short-term risk of a wider war in the Middle East had diminished following a firefight between Israel and Lebanon's Hezbollah, according to the latest news at Reuters.
• On Monday morning, explosions occurred in many places across Ukraine. Ukraine's military has warned of a large-scale Russian missile and drone attack, following a wave of early morning drone attacks.
The Ukrainian military said 11 Russian TU-95 strategic bombers were flying in the air and confirmed they had launched multiple missiles.
The Kyiv Post said Russia launched the largest missile attack since the Russia-Ukraine war, and thousands of people in Kiev poured into the metro station.
Although gold has adjusted downward, the basic factors still show that the upward trend in prices will continue to dominate the gold market and the basic trend in the near future. With support from policy, interest rate directions as well as geopolitical risks continue to appear new.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
Gold is experiencing bearish corrections during the Asian session today, Tuesday August 27 but the technical trend remains unchanged with conditions tilted strongly towards a bullish outlook.
In the short term, as long as gold remains above the original price of $2,500 and the 0.786% Fibonacci extension, it still has bullish prospects with a short-term target of $2,531 and more to the $2,544 level.
However, in case the 0.786% Fibonacci level is broken below, the impact of the technical correction could go a little deeper with a target drop to $2,484 in the short term.
During the day, the upward trend of gold prices remains unchanged and notable levels are listed as follows.
Support: 2,503 – 2,500 – 2,484USD
Resistance: 2,531 – 2,544USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2548 - 2546⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2552
→Take Profit 1 2541
↨
→Take Profit 2 2536
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2493 - 2495⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2489
→Take Profit 1 2500
↨
→Take Profit 2 2505
