GDAX DAX 40 (German 40) Technical Analysis & Trade IdeaGDAX DAX 40 (German 40) Technical Analysis & Trade Idea
The DAX 40's recent bullish surge reveals signs of exhaustion on the monthly and weekly charts. Lower timeframes suggest a manipulative price structure primed for a potential trend reversal.
Here's the breakdown:
- Overextension: Extended trends often succumb to corrections or shifts in direction. The DAX 40 appears ripe for such a move.
- Liquidity Engineering: The 4-hour and daily price action hints at manipulation. The downside breakout followed by a stop-loss raid indicates possible accumulation to fuel a bearish move.
- Reversal Pattern: This market behavior aligns with recurring reversal setups I've observed consistently throughout my trading experience.
Trade Idea
- Direction: Short (with the potential for significant downside)
- Timeframe: Expect bearish momentum through February and March.
- Monitor: Watch for validation on lower timeframes (e.g., a bearish break of the current range).
- Risk Management: Set appropriate stop-loss levels based on your risk tolerance.
Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational purposes and does not constitute financial advice. Before making any trades, perform your own in-depth research and exercise prudent risk management.
Gdax
Daily analysis and trade setups on DAX Ger30 20220726It's all CHOP CHOP CHOP with DAX for the last 3 days.
Unless one of the levels 13140 or 13290 are broken with confidence, it's going to be like this till FOMC tomorrow
I have observed this behaviour in all the assets when they get close to Brown top levels. DAX is near Brown level B at 13440.
Yesterday's levels are still in play i.e. Blue B and Brown B
Buy
Breaks: 13350, 13440
Reversals: 13100, 12970, 12920, 12830, 12790
Sell
Breaks: 13100, 12990, 12920
Reversals: 13350, 13440, 13600, 13840
For more precise levels, here is the Green Goblins chart >>
Confluence levels are here >>
GRT - Following other Coinbase listings like CVC & Mana?Hello Traders,
GRT/USDT is looking very nice.
We have a confirmed bullish structure with HH's & HL's.
A couple of key items:
- 25/50 EMA Cross on the 1 hour.
- Price has flipped the 25,50,100,175, & 225 EMA.
- Bullish divergence on the RSI.
Targeting:
- Recent Highs of $.41.
- If this can be broken, I would expect a restest of the ATH's. (And why not, it seems just about anything in crypto right now, is doing its own thing and giving big surprises)
Hold on to your hats and keep your arms and legs in the coaster because this is going to be a ride!
Thanks!
BTC LongFrom the beginning, I saw BTC as a picture of the dotcom bubble. If you look at the dotcom bubble you can see the first rise to fall was approximately 7 years followed by a smaller up that rise to fall lasted about 7 years. Obviously crypto went through the cycle significantly faster. We saw the first significant up last around 21 months and if we use this for the second phase we don't revisit a higher low (App. 4-5.5k) till the end of September 2020. So what does this mean for the short term? I would say we definitely aren't falling quick, which leaves room to play the volatility of the market as sideways is not something crypto is accustom to. However, it should come as no surprise if the market doesn't skyrocket off of this. We could go as high as 16k (but unlikely). The second phase of the dotcom went above its marginal curve at the end before the crash of 2008. BTC could still do this or the up at the beginning to 14k may have been just that. If it was we could see a slow bleed down to 4-5.5 over a period of months. Alts like XRP, Stellar, OX (ones I follow) still need time to pump prior to the btc 4-5.5k. In every bubble, there are winners and losers so the verdict is still out on what alts will really do. One thing I am pretty strong about is BTC having already hit its bottom when it hit the 3k area. Note: I am not professional, not even an amateur, I am simply your voice of reason.
Euro Stocks approaching key fib level - GDAX! (D30EUR)Hello friends. Fibonacci Time Zones as recently seen in bitcoin can be very useful, particularly the .618. Like all fib tools, there are many ways to use them but, I have found this to be the most effective. They can be used to explore timing for calling tops, bottoms, reversal areas, or important zones.
We can see here from the .236 and .382 time zones in DAX's trend signify reversal points, which is what I expect from the .618 being that the moving fibs have us in an oversold zone now.
Looking back, we can see that DAX rarely maintains a breakout into this zone, having done this once only recently leading to the rally in December 2017.
Most often, a breakdown from this level leads to a test of the green zone below (also calculated with Fibonacci MA).
In addition to these factors, TD Sequential is just hours from completing a 9 - 13 countdown signalling a potential sell opportunity.
Watch for DAX to show signs of weakness soon.
Good luck traders
WWG1WGA - Getting back under the NEckline AGAIN - ETC -- Update -
SHOUT OUT! -- FIRST OFF! -- Thank you to all the FOLLOWERS! and Likes! That means a lot, REALLY it does. I hope you are learning and increasing your odds as a market speculator... because THAT IS WHAT YOU ARE! you are a SPECULATOR. Maybe a lot of you know that already, maybe you need to hear it again from a friendly person and not from getting your pee pee slapped because you got to confident! anyways, that's my pep talk, stay humble, all ways be reforming!
-thank you to followers, I need more. I'm looking for hand outs HONK HONK but seriously, share this shit!
TWITTER @90dayJeff - I'll take requests for analysis - ping me on Twitter
NOT financial ADVICE - ever notice how every speculator wants must CYA by saying "Not Financial Advice"? That's because the doesn't want regular people talking about money with authority, because whatever controls the money, controls the people. Just ask the Apostle Paul . I'm not trying to preach here, but I'm sure you feel me anyways! -Soli Deo Gloria -WWG1WGA
Coinbase needs to go; if not away, under an sec microscopeTired of watching prices follow coinbase down a rabbit hole???
Coinbase has widely abused it's users, with a "beginners" platform charging up to 4% interest in AND out, without so much as letting customers know that "Coinbase Pro" exists, let alone at a completely dissimilar website known as gdax.com , where the maker/taker model exists. Worse yet, Coinbase is not even a direct conduit to coins or tokens, it is a middleman service.
I once telephoned their customer service line to ask them precisely what aggregation means in the esoteric context of coinbase , and nobody there could properly explain it to me.
People who know more than I have been outspoken, calling it "insider based trading trash," without so much as a rebuttal let alone a suit for Libel, because it is not Libel.
If you are bored , add any of their supported coins to your tradingview , and witness the unique bids and asks, displayed in the form of multipliers that more often than not do not make any sense.
Their "pro" platform does not even offer any tools beyond two overlays, ema 12 and 26. Complete Garbage. Where is the ADX/DMS, Ease of movement, Elder Ray, Elder Fischer transform ; where are the fractal analysis tools??? Where is the Coppock curve , where is the volume underlay , any of the oscillators???
Is it their goal to have their users fly blindly into whatever they do??
4%, before elective wavers makes profit in a bear and or sideways market VERY difficult.
Remember when a coinbase listing would cause a currency to rise? That was odd to say the least.
What coinbase will do, Coinbase will do - and they are not the largest , but by many metrics the most popular site for crypto. Is it any wonder the market has suffered under their stewardship??
I am not for regulation. I am for decentralization , and Coinbase is NOT decentralized. It is perhaps the least private platform there is.
I know U.S. based investors who use it only as a means to ferry money to and from their bank accounts. Apparently many of their products, in the form they are offered , have some deficiency in the WAY they are offered; being that according to my own research there are certain States in the U.S. where you cannot access half of their "offerings."
Why is a middleman site so popular???
If you are using coinbase you are being used. "Aggregation," as it exists on their pro platform, and likely on their base platform only without notification, cannot even be completely turned off. I believe it to be their practice of saving money on their own end by making purchases in a group fashion, so as to save THEM money.
And to you short sellers out there - I get it, 2018; but you are letting YOURSELVES down.
F.O.M.O. has given way to FEAR , UNCERTAINTY and DOUBT.
I always end my writing with Latin, usually FORTIS FORTUNA ADIUVAT : today I will translate it - FORTUNE favors the BRAVE.
BTC to $3550 - Inverse Chart comparisonLeft is current BTC price action on the daily timeframe, on the right is BTC on the 12H Timeframe.
Using the QuantRsi to find hypothetical Support targets, and Heffae Clouds as a guide for price movement. In this case, both indicators align to paint the same target.
Showing a prior instance of similar setup on the right pane.
Spreads UPDATEStill, with no clear explanation, this is the reason why
I WOULD NOT BE HOLDING ANY FUNDS ON EXCHANGES.
GDAX - Finex spreads have widened dramatically:
Not because of tether, but because of the widening spreads at a time where liquidity has NOT dried up. The spreads widened DURING the 6K sideways trading. Volatility was LOW at the time.
Yes, the spreads were exceptionally wide during the parabolic cycle. This can possibly be due to the enormous influx of users on exchanges rapidly buying up bitcoin during the 2017 psychological mania.
HOWEVER
The widening in spreads in the low volatility environment at 6k was EXTREMELY suspicious to me.
As stated by the Willy Report in 2013/14:
"Combined with Willy still being active, this caused the spread between Gox (Mt. Gox) and other exchanges to get completely out of hand. At the pinnacle of it, on January 26th, Willy (Willybot, a bot insider that manipulated the price of bitcoin and had the capacity to buy bitcoin for $0) suddenly became inactive – and with it, the price retraced back to a more reasonable spread with the other exchanges."
"In total, a staggering ~$112 million was spent to buy close to 270,000 BTC – the bulk of which was bought in November. So if you were wondering how Bitcoin suddenly appreciated in value by a factor of 10 within the span of one month, well, this may be why."
"So how did all of this trading activity affect the price of Bitcoin as a whole? The answer is, unfortunately, enormously."
"The huge volume spike on July 28 15:14 is where the big buying starts. 15,000 coins get bought in the span of 30 minutes. According to the trade data, buying continues until the 31st, 15:55. After a four day pause, there’s some small buying on August 5th, but it really picks up again on the 12th at 21:32. Buying continues on-and-off, with some large spikes especially on the 19th, 27th and the 30th, where ten of thousands of coins are bought. Basically, all the huge green volume spikes in the above chart are the handiwork of Markus, and Markus alone." (Markus is a secondary bot noticed alongside WillyBot)
So, what's up with the GDAX spread?
The spread in my chart (BTCUSD - BTCUSD ) is in fact trading at the lowest point EVER. (At least that's what I see compared to the drawn out daily chart which, by Tradingviews logic will use the daily close to calculate the spread.
Using, bookmap.com 's chart's I maintain that sell volume is exceptionally aggressive and that, evident in this video, www.youtube.com there appears to be one or more aggressive bots placing significant downside pressure on GDAX books. In the video we can see, in the initial frame, the large red squares in the depth chart. These are the positions in question. They seem to have an endless supply of bitcoin, which I have observed since June. The bot's continue to place between 60-85 bitcoin diversified within the 10-20 points NTM (near the money) on the ASK side and appears to be 24/7.
Although hard to see in the realtime GDAX book, the aggregation of the ASK in the Bookmap charts, combined with the visualised depth chart makes these positions very clear.
This is my only explanation for the spreads, and nowhere else have I seen anyone have any better explanation (or any at all).
Although my data is not granular, one thing that can be clearly shown is the extremely suspicious spreads and more importantly, the timeliness of these spreads widening before price action.
In the above chart we can see that exchange spreads (GDAX-FINEX) widened significantly in a very controlled and stable manner until finally falling off AT THE SAME TIME as the enormous "pump candle" of the 15th of October. The spread seemed to tighten once again, as if the market began to re-balance, albeit slowly.
Then once again, the spread began to widen again, directly into the first sell of November.
Even more interestingly, during the pump of the 15th of Oct, at one point, GDAX traded OVER $1007 CHEAPER than Finex.
My fear is that this is only a 1 minute chart, and the Tradingiew spreads are using the candle close as data points. It is possible that, during that one minute candle, the spread was indeed far greater than this 1007 point value.
Although my data is not granular, the Willy Report of Mt. Gox in 2013 illustrates and proves that inter-exchange spreads CAN be influenced and OR caused by malicious bot behaviour. I do not suggest in any way that GDAX is a malicious exchange or that GDAX is acting against their TOS. Further I don't suggest that any other exchange is engaging in suggested or implied behaviour. It's entirely possible that this trading is simply being conducted by a client, retail or third party trader on these exchanges. Additionally, I could be entirely wrong and that the inter-exchange spreads are caused by an entirely different issue. I suggest that you read The Willy Report here: willyreport.wordpress.com and draw your own conclusions.
Crypto's CIP - GDAXSpreads between the major exchanges have widened, with opportunities for arbitrage despite the arbitrage paradox axiom that these opportunities may remain short lived should arbitrageurs neutralise them.
Similarly, following 2008, Covered Interest Parity has not held true in foreign exchange markets.
i.imgur.com
Initially, the violations of CIP were seen as a reflection of strains in global interbank markets. Specifically, heightened concerns about counterparty risk and constrained bank access to wholesale dollar funding inhibited arbitrage during the GFC, and again during the subsequent euro area sovereign debt crisis. But, puzzlingly, the violations have persisted even after these strains dissipated. The basis has widened since 2014, for both short- and long-term borrowing, despite fading concerns about bank credit quality and recovery in wholesale dollar funding markets.
papers.ssrn.com
www.sciencedirect.com
www.bis.org
www.bis.org
Bitcoin 1 Day Update$7000 didnt hold
If anything I would say Bitcoin is just having some side way momentum
Watch for:
- Rising wedge = bearish (watch for a test of the .236 fib)
- Resistance trend line hasnt been broken or tested
- S/R are pretty much the same
- Still above the BB
- Last candle was a hanging man (sell signal / bearish)
Overall:
If we break support at around $6600, I can see Bitcoin and the market going down
If we can hold around $7000 and get enough volume and moment, then $7200 is still in tact
Bitcoin 1 Hr Update$7000 is going to be a tough $ to hold
My next target is around $7250, if that does hold, then $6900 is still strong support, with resistance at around $7100
Watch for:
- All oscillators (RSI, Stoch, MACD) are indicating downward momentum
- Candle is below BB (bearish signal)
- Top trendline has been broken
- But bottom trend support is still in tact
Overall:
Wait to confirm $7200 or back down to $6900 support
We Still Have Profitable Trades! 2 weeks trading pathHi TradingView Family,
Hope you all are doing well during the slight downturn in the market. While we are still a long ways away from a "bull" run and i think that will not happen until Q1 in 2019 (i have personal theories and TA's drafted on that front that i shared with my telegram family).
We are entering a consolidation phase for the next couple months but this can be some of our MOST PROFITABLE MOMENTS! Understanding how BTC and key coins move we can easily generate 2-5% on a daily basis. We can also do 25% ROI trades on just a 3-4 weeks swing trade. One of the biggest lessons in this market is to TAKE PROFITS at the top and buying tops. I see a lot of people panic selling the bottoms, buying the tops and get stuck hodling. I digress.
This TA is for the next 10 days of BTC. We are approaching a turning point where we can initiate for a 5-10% ROI trade. Right now we are looking at the four-hour charts and we can see a lot of support at the $6,500 earlier today with 250 btc buying support that was broken. What that tells me the buying support were fake set by whales. We are seeing a support level of $6,000 and aggressive selling. I think whales are going to try and break us down over the next two weeks.
Until then for the next 7 DAYS we might have a good day trading range between $6,250 - 6,800 which is about a 5-8% swing. I recommend for everyone to wait and set buy around $6,200-6,400 for a low-medium risk trade and you can trade on 2-5% profit. Sell around $ Keep it tight because i predict that we will drop one more time around 8/15-8/20.
An alternative path to trading this market is waiting completely for the market bottoms, but you know what they say...we don't need to buy the bottoms and sell the tops, you only need to buy the ankles and sell at the neck. We are close to the ankles atm.
Hope this TA will help you plan out your trading strategy. its the same one I have shared with my team over a week ago on telegram :) You can check the developments here!
PLEASE NOTE IF YOU ARE LOOKING TO JUST BUY BOTTOMS AND NOT DAY TRADE DO NOT SET ANY BUYS AT ANY RATES ABOVE. PLEASE SET THEM AROUND $6,000 - 5,500 WE MIGHT BE ABLE TO HIT THOSE LEVELS IN A 1.5-2 WEEKS. I WILL UPDATE YOU ALL AS WE GET CLOSER. IF THAT IS NOT THE CASE I WILL UPDATE IT HERE.
Released on 7/30/18 on Telegram
Market Development 7 Days Later
If you have any questions drop them in the comments or PM :D
Happy Hunting!
Reg
BTC/USD 4hr...Short to Long...Hello fellow traders to a long overdue update on BTC.
I went private with my charts for a minute, but have since decided against that decision. I don't believe there is any true privacy on the internet ;-)
With that said, looking at the 4hr we are in dire need of some healthy correction. If you missed that bullrun, you missed that bullrun. It is as simple as that.
Longmoney will be eyeing these zones for potential pivots for a quick long. I am not convinced yet that the bottom is in.
Please stay tuned for more of these educational updates ;-)
Until then...Stay out.
longmoney
BTC will break $5000 this year and new target will be $3000As I predicted in past that Bitcoin will fall from 9700 but it started its fall at 9950 now seeing this move have given its plan away. According to our prediction in the past, we said that we will see $5000 before $11000 but now we have made changes to that and now we are predicting bitcoin will see 3000 at the lowest this year before 12000....
now let the time speak for itself !!!!!!!!!! GOOD LUCK TO EVERYONE AND HAPPY TRADING
Bitcoin Bulls stalled outBitcoin bulls ran out of steam and stalled out at $9900 last week then failed it's attempt to break back through $8700 this weekend. It's pulled back about 50% of the +$3000 gains it had from the middle of April thru the first week of May. All of the Consensus hype about big price action actually was just the opposite. We could continue to have another 2 weeks of volume decline. When the volume dips hard, the price dips harder. If we dip hard, I expect to find next support level at $73xx. If it falls under that range, the volume will dry up and we could re-test $6800 in 2 weeks. Then a 3 week rise back to test $10k in the final week of June.
BTC/USD 4hr...Follow The Money Trail...So he we are everyone, with an update on the Great Bitcoin.
We now sit at the 786 of the current swing low to swing high, and whether you are labeling that impulsive wave as a 1 or an A makes a HUGE difference regarding where we stand now. Buyers came in as expected at the 786 swing retrace; however, from one look at the trade volume on GDAX we are seriously lacking buying pressure to propel BTC forward. Per Elliot Wave Analysis, if this is a 3rd wave, then we must see an impulse wave come out of this low in the month of June. In other words, we are looking for a clear 5 wave. Time will tell.
Bitcoin shorts at the 50 retrace of the current swing have a target unrealized which will likely test a double bottom of the April 1 low. This would be another area likely to see a bounce if the 786 does not hold. Trading here, in my novice opinion is definitely too risky, even with a super tight stop--long or short. Remember, there are always retracements and placing a trade at these levels requires strict adherence to one's' TA or trade setup. I would rather wait for Bitcoin to start moving and take the next 2 wave, or let the market play out over the next week to see if the shorts realize target.
As always, this is my educational opinion and not financial advice telling you when to buy. I only hope to point out where the market will statistically most likely react.
longmoney still sits is a no trade zone on BTC, but if it does pop I will look for opportunities in my other alts for their volatility before I begin adding to a long Bitcoin position. Let the market reveal, there is no rush.
longmoney out...