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The impasse of monetary policy and the future crisis We have repeatedly noted in our reviews that the historical highs of the US stock market is direct merit of the ultra-soft monetary policy of the Fed. The Central Bank poured money into the US financial market, however, everything that it could achieve was the formation of a record-high bubble in the stock market. So we emphasize the scale of what is happening. The total assets of the three major central banks of the world (Fed, ECB and Bank of Japan) in 2019 reached $ 14.5 trillion, which is 3.5 (!) much more than before the crisis in 2007-2009 (that time assets amounted $ 4 trillion). The fact of growth by 3.5 times is already alarming. In theory, $ 10 trillion should have been aimed at ensuring the growth of the economies of the USA, EU and Japan. But here we have a very serious discrepancy: the GDP of these countries over the same period grew by $ 5.3 trillion. That is, $ 4.7 trillion did not go to the real sector. The question is, where did the $ 4.7 trillion go? The answer is generally obvious - they went to the formation of price bubbles in different markets, mainly in the stock market and corporate debt market. Any attempt to increase the injection of money will lead to further inflation of price bubbles. But what is the Fed doing? Instead of gradually reducing its balance sheet and pumping out "excess" money from the financial markets, in the fall of 2019 the Fed sharply increased its balance and plan to start 2020 with a huge injection of money. At the same time, the ECB continues quantitative easing policy (the Bank of Japan is doing the same). That is, they persistently continue to do what does not work. Obviously, this cannot go on forever. They will have to abandon the flawed plan. This will lead to a sharp drop in demand in the stock market (extra money will go away) and, as a result, a sharp drop in prices. Another important point characterizing the inefficiency of current monetary policies is the extremely deplorable state of the global economy. The forecast for its growth rate in 2019 is 3%. This is much lower than the 40-year average and quite close to the border of 2.5%, which is traditionally associated with the recession phase in the global economy. At the same time, the US economy forecasts growth for 2020 in the region of 2%, the Eurozone and Japan - less than 1%. And this very clearly shows that the tactic of pouring money into the economy does not work. So the prerequisites for a full-fledged crisis have formed: bubbles in the financial markets, an extremely weak real economy and an ineffective monetary policy, which also has completely exhausted its anti-crisis and stimulating potential. Let us multiply by growing populism, protectionism and a general crisis in the political system of almost any country and we have an extremely explosive mixture. That is, any serious shock and a house of cards will sprinkle. Recall, we consider 2019 the last year of unjustified growth in the US stock market. Already in 2020, it will begin to adjust. The scale of correction is from 50% and higher. Given that in recent years, shares of technology companies in the US stock market have grown by an average of 7-8 times (and some issuers have shown growth of 10 or even 20 times), the US stock market will no doubt become the object of massive sales. We recommend participating in this process, selling both the market as a whole (Nasdaq index) and the shares of individual issuers (Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Oracle, etc.).
NASDAQ:NDXShort
by Trade24Fx
4
NZD/USD Outrageously OverBought NZD's newfound strength is artificial for the most part. Let's analyze: New Zealand's GDP report showed to be better than expected, but let's put that into perspective. In Q2, their GDP was revised down and you want to convince me that this 0.7% quarter growth is significant. The yearly GDP growth is still on a convincing downtrend. Many Banks still have the RBNZ down as giving a rate cut at the start of the year. Inflation is not where they want it to be. Yes, the trade war is making progress which is a natural provider of currency strength to the NZD. However, this is not enough substance to justify the strength of the current bull run. The ridiculousness is showcased in the RSI(14) which is showing 2-year highs. Expecting a sharp decline at the start of the trading week. Disclaimer: I am not your financial advisor.
Short
by TogamiTrader
2
DayTrade: Retracement on the GBPUSDFX:GBPUSD After pushing lower, Price is finding some support on the 200EMA and if it cant breakthrough, with divergence setting up on the MACD as well as the squeeze, we might be looking at a quick retracement into the 1.3070-1.3090 where a Downtrend line is set up. of course, this is an against the trend trade so trade with caution. Also, the GBP and the USD will be waiting for the GDP releases today which can cause volatility as well as making this trade void. Like and Follow to get the latest updated Day trades and Analysis
Long
by kbgeresy
Last week results & immediate plansThe markets finally went out of “hibernation” so we could observe fluctuation not by 40-50 pips, but by 100+ (well, or 400, as is the case with the pound on Friday). Last week began with Trump's tweet about the successful completion of the first phase of negotiations with China. Recall, on December 15, the United States threatened to introduce additional tariffs on goods from China in the amount of $ 160 billion, which kept the markets in suspense. According to Fox Business, Washington and Beijing completed the "first phase" of the trade transaction, but its terms may not be publicized at all. Formally, this is an occasion for optimism and the start of sales in safe-haven assets. Nevertheless, we consider the current equilibrium to be extremely fragile and continue to look for points to buy yen and gold on the intraday basis. Then there was a meeting of the Fed, which showed that the US Central Bank is serious about holding a pause in monetary policy - everything suits US Central Bank in the current state of affairs in the economy. But at the same time, the Fed will continue to flood financial markets with money through the Repo system. The Fed’s balance sheet reduction was replaced by a sharp expansion: according to the Fed, it plans to infuse $ 500 billion. If this happens, then by mid-January the Fed’s balance will increase its balance by 10% in just a month. As a result, the balance will exceed $ 4.5 trillion and reach new record levels. Honestly speaking, instead of gradually removing this money from the system, the Fed continues to increase its amount. In the end, it will end badly. For the dollar, this, in our opinion, is a kind of sentence. Classic demand-supply chart: with a sharp increase in supply, the price should decline. So this week and for the foreseeable future, we will sell the dollar across the entire spectrum of the foreign exchange market. The first ECB meeting chaired by Christine Lagarde ended with nothing - the monetary policy parameters did not change. But the new head of the ECB made it clear that it was time for the Central Bank to change its strategy of action and promised to present its vision by the beginning of 2020. The main event of the week was the victory of the conservatives in the parliamentary elections in the UK. Many have already called this a kind of second Brexit referendum since voting for Johnson is a vote for his plan to leave the EU by January 31st. The pound on this occasion rose sharply on Friday, reaching 1.35. After that, we perceive some correction as an excellent chance for its cheaper purchases. Indeed, by and large 1.35 - this is not the limit of growth and the pound could well grow to the area of 1.40 and even higher. As for the interesting perspective positions USDRUB purchasing (this will become a kind of hedge for other positions on the sale of the dollar against the euro, pound, Japanese yen and other base currencies). In general, the week ahead is quite eventful: the announcement of the results of the Banks of England and Japan, GDP of the USA and Great Britain and so on. This means that it makes sense to start trading after a rather long period of hibernation in the foreign exchange market.
Long
by Trade24Fx
OPEC meeting, Bank of Canada decision and Eurozone GDPWe start with macroeconomic statistics, it is worth noting the extremely weak employment rate from ADP: +67 thousand jobs with a forecast of +135 thousand. So, buyers of the dollar should at least focus, because if similar statistics come out on Friday on the NFP, the dollar may well be sold out. Statistics on business activity in the Eurozone came out surprisingly good, which intensified the talks that the European economy was beginning to recover. The pound also got its reason for growth, as the UK business activity index also exceeded forecasts. Although we note that it was still below 50. It is rather symptomatic that the pound continues to grow without waiting for the election results. The markets decided that Brexit’s fate is predetermined (there will be no way out without a deal), but the pound is still very cheap, you need to buy it before it’s too late. We have long been bulls as for pound, so nothing surprising happens to us. We only note that a daily close above 1.30 is a strong bullish signal. And the pound may grow more than one hundred pips. So we are looking for points for his purchases. The Bank of Canada did not change the rate yesterday but was quite optimistic in its comments, which contributed to the growth of the Canadian dollar. So those readers who were following our recommendations could put in their piggy bank a good profit. Despite the extremely frightening information at the beginning of the week, the negotiation process between the US and China continues. And according to its participants, by December 15, the first phase should be completed. As for today the macroeconomic statistics, the news of the day will be the publication of Eurozone GDP. The fact may likely be higher than forecasts. This means that the euro may well strengthen up to 1.1160 paired with the dollar. Well, the main event of the week, at least for the oil market, will be the beginning of the OPEC meeting in Vienna. The most likely scenario is an attempt to leave everything as it is. That is, they will adhere to the current line of behaviour (an agreement to reduce production by 1.2 million b / d). For oil, this decision, by and large, does not change anything in terms of fundamental alignment. But any agreements to increase the limits will play into the hands of buyers and vice versa. Refusal of the deal in any form will be a strong hit to oil and activates its sellers.
TVC:DXYShort
by Trade24Fx
Good news from US, dollar & new threatsA lot of macroeconomic statistics was published yesterday, however, it did not lead to significant movements. GDP was revised upwards 2.1% instead of preliminary 1.9%, and durable goods orders exceeded the most optimistic expectations (+ 0.6% m / m instead of -0.9% m / m). Well, the number of people receiving unemployment benefits in the United States so generally reached the lowest level since 1973. However, people were not in a hurry to buy a dollar in the foreign exchange market. Even against the backdrop of news that another progress has been made in the negotiation process between the US and China: Trump said that phase 1 of the trade transaction is close to its completion. The lack of reaction to such a clear fundamental positive, in our opinion, is very symptomatic. Accordingly, we are not going to revise our recommendation to “sell the dollar”. On the contrary, thanks to yesterday's data, sale for the dollar against the euro and the Japanese yen became simply excellent as well as Gold. So yesterday's dollar appreciation is an opportunity, not a threat. We continue to monitor analysts predicting an imminent crisis. We are not even interested in the time frame as much as the reasons. So far, our collection has the collapse of the CLO market, the growth of staff salaries and the fall in corporate profits because of this, huge debts both at the state and corporate levels, the collapse of price bubbles in the stock and bond markets, trade wars, and growing inequality in world, the end of the business cycle. So today in our piggy bank replenishment: a crisis in the banking system of China. According to the Bank of China, more than half of Chinese banks may collapse if the economic situation in the country worsens further. And this is tens of trillions of dollars. For reference: the size of China's banking system is about $ 40 trillion, which is two times bibber than the US banking system. That is the problem. So we find another confirmation of our basic investment strategy: to shorten the US stock market while buying safe-haven assets (gold and Japanese yen). Well, in conclusion, we note that the spring is now compressed to its limit (for example, the volatility of the euro has reached a historic low).
TVC:DXYShort
by Trade24Fx
An extremely easy but super efficient investing ruleIt's actually disgusting that it would be so easy... Countries approaching socialism: Sell & Let them starve. Countries abandonning socialism: Buy & Hold. It's barely more complicated than this. Most African countries have been living in absolute misery probably because after the soviet union stopped sending them free stuff, the european union and americans have been taking pity on them and throwing free stuff at them. To feel good about themselves. All this has accomplished is enabling awful (even much worse than the soviet union's) anti business anti ownership regulations, the people need to be pushed to the limit and have nothing to lose and nothing to hope for to make a change, all these "helpful" organisations sending food clothes medicines, all these altruist doctors, they are responsible for misery in Africa. If they think they are going to heaven for their "good actions" boy do I have bad news for them (: With the US stock market in a bubble and nearing explosion I'd say it's not the time to invest right now. The whole world will feel the shockwave. Some GDP growths: I've been looking a bit at Rwanda but just to get a better idea, to be able to more easilly recognize when this happens ELSEWHERE, I will not invest in a country of murderers. While the herd is getting all excited by big US names and new techs (dot coms, crypto...) AFTER the gains have been made, anyone will a brain bigger than a walnut should look for everything that is undervalued, it should be a habit. I am a speculator not an investor but I figured this is how you do it. I am not saying there is no speculating, actually investing in some 3rd world unstable countries you better be prepared to lose then totality of your investment, but it can also go way up. Imagine this: some complete ruin of a country, worth zero, simply mentionning its name and investment in the same sentence makes your average person laugh. The harder they laugh the bigger the potential. "The people" are ALWAYS wrong just do the exact opposite. Also, if the population of the USA gets butthurt and jealous enough they WILL vote socialist I can guarentee 100% it will happen if they get salty enough. Just like Donald Trump could win the election in 2016. And when that happens, all the world economies relying on free innovations coming from "evil capitalist" US will crash. Forget GDP growth. Plus there's the climate religious freaks that want to conquer the world. Also europe free ride on the back of the US military will probably be over. They're going to have to spend their own money. Having ideals is cute when you have a large nation doing all the work for you, or when you have huge Oil exports and literal unironic millions of slaves. But when reality knocks at the door, it wields a baseball bat. Always remember: During the white revolution Iran experienced double digit growth.
TVC:DJIEducation
by MrRenev
4
ORBEX: GBPUSD,EURUSD: Brexit Party Won't Contest Conservatives!In today’s #marketinsights video recording, I talk about #GBPUSD and #EURUSD #FXMajors #Pound surged higher yesterday following headlines that Nigel Farage, Brexit Party's leader, will not contest Conservative seats ahead of the Dec 12 elections! On the economic front, the UK was marginally away from a recession, the latest GDP figures showed. With #employment data on the spotlight, #cable is the intraday pair that traders could find opportunities on. #EURUSD was somewhat supported by a weaker #dollar. The #greenback was seen falling on #Trump's rollback comments, as he denied having agreed on a tariff rollback with China. German #ZEW data will provide clues on #euro's direction. Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice.
by Orbex
Get ready for NFP: our expectations and recommendationsThe Japanese yen steadily strengthened yesterday because of the results of the meeting of the Bank of Japan and news from China. When the Bank of Japan expectedly left the rate unchanged, the Chinese quite unexpectedly announced that they doubted the possibility of a long-term trade deal with President Donald Trump. That is, it is too early to stop worrying about the trade war. Therefore, safe-haven assets, the Japanese yen and gold yesterday were in high demand. Recall that in our review yesterday we recommended buying gold. So congratulations to those readers who follow our recommendations. It is worth noting data on the Eurozone GDP that came out on Thursday. On the one hand, it came out better than expected (+ 0.2% q / q for the forecast + 0.1% q / q), and on the other hand, the growth rate is still extremely close to zero. So there’s nothing much to rejoice about. Moreover, the unemployment rate was higher than expected, and inflation in the Eurozone continues to be rather weak. Not surprisingly, the euro travelled towards the 1.1160 resistance and hit that. The dollar was quoted quite mixed yesterday: against the yen, it fell, but against the euro and the pound - it strengthened. However, the most interesting movement will be today. Recall that data on the US labour market will be published today. Data on unemployment and average hourly wages this Friday will be much less significant. Our expectations for NFP are generally negative. If we compare the situation on the labour market now and a year ago, we can state its serious deterioration. One year ago, we were talking about the average value of the NFP 200K +, but recently it has been in the region of 150K, and the saddest thing for the US economy in all of this is that the indicator shows a clear downward trend. In general, expert forecasts confirm our expectations - the average forecast is 85K. This is more than half the average NFP over the past couple of years. However, the actual data may come out even worse. Over the past 5 months, 3 times the data on the NFP came out worse than forecasts, 1 time the analysts correctly predicted and only 1 time the actual data came out better than the forecast. So the chances are that the data will come out better than forecasts 1 to 5. We see two trading options: riskier and more profitable and less risky, but less profitable. The first option is about to start selling the dollar now in anticipation of weak data we have reasons for this. The US economy is slowing down. Which cannot but affect the state of the labour market. Accordingly, weak data will lead to sales of the dollar in the foreign exchange market. An excellent candidate for the sale is USDCAD. Also, gold purchases look very promising. As for the second option, which is less risky, we are talking about news trading. The bottom line is to work upon the release of the news. Obviously, the movement will be strong and unidirectional. That is, you do not have to guess whether the dollar goes up or down but just get into a position in the direction of movement after the data is released. To do this, we place orders like buy stop and sell stop at 2-3 minutes from the current price at that time 2-3 minutes before the news release. And we are waiting for the news to be published and one of the orders will work out. After that, you just need to be patient and wait. Risks are minimal, and earnings are limited only by your patience and the extent of the reaction of the foreign exchange market to data.
Short
by Trade24Fx
UK Per Capita GDP Using New Consumer Price Inflation (CPIH)This chart shows the GDP per capita for the UK as given by official government inflation rates (blue) and the newer CPIH which includes changes in rental cost (purple). As you can see, whereas the UK Tory government and rich landlords paint a rosy picture of life, the truth has again wandered from 'fact'. The share of GDP in real terms, which we can think of as a measure of social equality, has collapsed since 2008 and not recovered. The data has been normalised to 1 Jan 2008
F
by RealMcafee
What to expect from ECB and what to do with the euro, US inflatiAnnouncement of the ECB decision on monetary policy in the Eurozone is what everybody waiting for. Analysts are expecting lowering rates, a new quantitative easing program (an increase in bond buybacks) and all kinds of support signals from the ECB for the European economy. What are the chances? In our opinion, the chances are high enough. The fact is that the Eurozone economy is sending more and more signals about problems and the upcoming recession. Recall the German GDP growth rate in the second quarter (below zero), negative retail sales in the Eurozone and business activity indices below 50. Everything is decisively in favor of the need for ECB intervention. And although representatives of the Central Bank are supporting fiscal stimulus, it is obvious that the ECB is expected to act. What does the softening of an already ultra-soft monetary policy mean for the euro? It means that the euro will be under pressure and it needs to be sold. Against the yen, against the pound and even against the dollar. At least that is what we plan to do today and possibly in the foreseeable future (the final position will depend on the actual decisions of the ECB). Also, today it is worth paying attention to data on consumer inflation in the United States. Recall that next Wednesday the Fed should decide whether to reduce the rate or not. In this light, inflationary data can either sow doubts or remove them completely. Weak data (low inflation) will make it clear to the Fed that you can safely reduce the rate. In the end, the central bank’s main goal is to control inflation, and then help to ensure economic growth. Accordingly, weak data will be another reason for dollar sales in the foreign exchange market. Trump, meanwhile, continues to escalate, urging the Fed to lower rates to 0%. As for other trading ideas, we traditionally recommend buying gold and selling the Russian ruble. Pound purchases also remain a priority.
Short
by Trade24Fx
UK, oil news and gold forecastsWhen leading economies stably show statistics worse than analysts' forecasts and signal a slowdown in economic development, Britain continues to surprise with industrial production and GDP outcome on Monday, then on Tuesday, the statistics on the labor market turned out to be better than forecasts. In particular, the unemployment rate went below the forecast, and the average salary, on the contrary, exceeded experts' expectations. As the British Parliament temporary is not working, Johnson is in charge. After a series of humiliating defeats in the Parliament, the Prime Minister is seriously preparing for negotiations with the EU and a new deal. Although nothing has been decided yet, we continue to recommend buying British pound with stops. At least for now when the fundamental background is that favourable. The dollar strengthening in the foreign exchange market this week, in our opinion, is an excellent opportunity for selling the dollar when the price is high. The reason - the Fed will lower the rate next Wednesday, and this will be a powerful signal for dollar sales. Citigroup analysts, meanwhile, are predicting a bright future for gold, + $ 2,000 an ounce. The argumentation of the new historical lows: the growing risks of the global recession, the easing of the monetary policy of the Fed and the zero interest rates of other central banks, geopolitical instability, as well as overheating of leading stock markets. In this light, we want to recall our basic recommendation to buy gold on the intraday basis. However, bears have temporarily are in charge, we do not see any serious changes in the fundamental background, which means that gold purchases remain relevant. Another favourite position is that oil sales are becoming more and more relevant every day. But this week we want to wait for the OPEC meeting outcome before offering to open short positions. The fact is that a change in the Minister of Oil of Saudi Arabia could lead to a temporary artificial increase in market prices. This will be due to the need to provide better conditions for the initial public offering of Aramco.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by Trade24Fx
Pound & easing global monetary policyYesterday, quite unexpectedly, a block of economic data on GDP and industrial production, instead of already traditional disappointment, provided an occasion for optimism. In July UK GDP grew by 0.3% (expected to grow at 0.1%), while industrial production instead of a decline by 0.3% (expert forecasts) went to the positive zone ( + 0.1% ). Monday following Johnson’s next parliamentary defeat in a few days. His next attempt to initiate an early election failed. come into effect Law against "no-deal" Brexit came into effect. Not surprisingly, the pound continued to grow against such a background. Our position on the pound is unchanged: we are looking for points for purchases. But with small stops, because the situation with Brexit can develop quite dynamically. Meanwhile, the markets are preparing for a wave of rate cuts by leading central banks of the world. On Friday, the Bank of China lowered the rate by 0.5% to the lowest level since 2007. In this light, the decision of the ECB on Thursday is becoming more significant and significant. Recall next week the Fed, the Bank of Japan and the Bank of Switzerland will announce their decisions. So the upcoming two weeks promise to be full of news. Strengthening of the Russian ruble in the foreign exchange market is a good opportunity to begin the formation of a medium-term purchase cycle with USDRUB. Current prices are the starting point of the cycle. The next one is 63.60 and the final one is about 62.50. And finally, buying gold from current prices seems to be a very good trading opportunity. Recall it is worth buying with stops.
Long
by Trade24Fx
AFTER the fact trade : GBPCHF 8 Sept 2019Refering to this trade (also linked below the post) I exited the trade when the GDP number came out. The probability was against me when that number came out so I cut my loss immediately. I risked 0.8% for this trade and ended losing approx 0.4%. The takeaways that I would like my readers to get from this post are as follows : 1) Trading isn't about being right, it is about managing risk when you are wrong 2) Don't over-leverage 3) Apply discretion around a very well thought out trading plan/strategy (i.e the GDP number came out and I did not see the value to stay in the trade as the probability was severely against me) 4) It is okay to take a loss 5) Be wary of risk-events even if you don't include fundamental analysis in your trading methodolgies
Short
by sufiansaid
Arrangements, collapse in Germany and data from the USAThe China-United States Trade War is an ongoing economic conflict between the world's two largest economies. Two countries cannot even agree if they are talking. According to Trump, he got a call from Chinese officials, however, China did not confirm that yet. Well, quite possible that there was no call. this means that we are in a situation where the parties are in the active phase of the confrontation. In the light, we will continue to look for points to buy for safe-haven assets (the Japanese yen in the foreign exchange market and gold in the commodity market). Yesterday extremely weak data on the business climate in the largest economy of the Eurozone came out, today German GDP in the second quarter fell by 0.1%. Another quarter with a minus mark and the recession will be announced officially. Recall recession is a period of general economic decline, defined usually as a contraction in the GDP for six months (two consecutive quarters) or longer. An extremely alarming signal was the decline in German GDP mainly due to a sharp drop in the country's exports (it took 0.5% of GDP growth, actually leading it into the negative zone). This is an example of how the trade war could hurt. This news confirmed our recommendation to avoid buying euros. Instead, we suggest selling the euro against the Japanese yen and the British pound. This trading idea this week works just great. As for the dollar, not everything is that simple. Yesterday's data on orders for durable goods, consumer confidence and business activity in the US came out better than expected, which suggests that the US economy is getting better. But, our position on the dollar is unchanged - we are looking for points for its sales. First of all, against the pound and the Japanese yen. Also, on Thursday, revised data on US GDP for the second quarter will be published. Weak data may trigger a short dollar.
Short
by Trade24Fx
Pause in trade war shifts market focus on another dataA temporary truce in the trade war was announced. Well, of course, a “truce” is not the right word we prefer a “pause”. The appreciation of the renminbi, as well as the decline in the VIX Index, are further evidence of tensions easing in the financial markets. Against this background, we again pay attention to the sale of gold. But we note that sales with the random points may turn out to be unprofitable, so we select the entry points carefully, taking into account at least an hour overbought and along daily maximum. Recall that the dollar is still very strong, which is bothers Trump. And in itself, it is an opportunity for its sales in the foreign exchange market. But the markets are more interested in the Fed’s further actions - will the Central Bank cut the rate again&? What could spur the Fed on easing monetary policy? First of all, weak macroeconomic data. So today's retail sales data may well give rise to dollar sales. Retail sales report is a monthly measurement of the retail industry. Monthly retail sales data is a chain indicator. That is, The report shows the total sales for the prior month. This specificity leads to the fact that chain indicators tend to fluctuate around the zero and after a strong growth period a decline period follows, and vice versa. So, over the last two months, US retail sales have been growing. To show better results this time too, the indicator must rise quite significantly concerning the three months periods. The US economy has been weak recently, there is a reason to expect weak data on retail sales. Since markets react not to the essence, but to the gossips, the outcome of the indicator in the negative zone (although this may be an increase relative the period of two months ) can trigger dollar sales. In this regard, today we will sell the dollar. First of all, against the pound. Eurozone GDP grew by 0.2 %, however, industrial production decreased, and quite significantly (-1.6% m / m), which is the worst result over the last 3 years. China also showed weak industrial production data: plus 4.8% expected plus 5.8% (the minimum growth rate since 2002). Retail sales in Sino are also worse than expected.
FX:XAUUSDShort
by Trade24Fx
Markets recovering, and we sell almost everythingThis summer can not be called calm. Nonetheless, increased volatility and uncertainty are advantages. There are excellent trading opportunities every day, of course, if you understand what happens in the financial markets. Recall China lowered the value of the Yuan below its 7 to 1 peg against the dollar in response to a new series of U.S. tariffs. China Halts U.S. Agriculture Purchases. China has chosen the most painful points for Trump. The result was a sharp increase in demand for safe-haven assets, so those of our readers who heed our recommendations should have made good money buying gold and the Japanese yen. However, the value of gold and the Japanese yen, in our opinion, is too high. Yes, and the VIX Fear index dynamics. (decreased by more than 20% of the maximum marks achieved after Trump's decision to raise tariffs) suggests that the worst is over so far. So this week we will sell both gold and the Japanese yen. Since such a decision runs counter to the current the market will, we fix each position with hard stops. Friday appeared extremely “bad day” for the pound. Last week, the pound was consolidating in the region of 1.21-1.22 ( GBPUSD), gradually “compressing the spring”. As a result, UK GDP growth for the second quarter decreased (expected zero growth), as industrial production in June. The UK GDP growth rate has not crossed the negative zone since 2012. So when the GBPUSD is lower than 1.21 is a trend. Our trading position on the pound has not changed much - we continue to keep its medium-term purchases, but on the intraday basis go against the market and take extra minutes is not worth it. So for now, GBPUSD is below 1.21 so its short-term purchases you should probably wait with. A return above 1.21 will be a signal for its purchases. As for the upcoming week, on Tuesday, we pay attention to statistics on the UK labor market and consumer inflation in the United States, on Wednesday to the Eurozone GDP and inflation in the UK, on Thursday we monitor data on retail sales in the US and the UK, and on Friday we fix profit. So it won’t be boring. We continue to work and earn. Our trading activity for today will be exclusively bearish: we sell gold and the Japanese yen; We sell the Russian ruble and oil.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by Trade24Fx