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Pound is growth leader, dollar and ruble in danger and FEDThe best day for the pound over the past six weeks. Sum up, the result of its growth was the highest among the 30 other currencies on FOREX. Causes - a general correction in dollar pairs and possibility of Brexit progress. It is about the progress in the negotiations between Government and the leaders of the opposition Labor Party. As a result, by the middle of the next week, a compromise on Brexit may appear. In addition, a decision on the parameters of monetary policy in the UK will be announced on Thursday. But we will talk about it tomorrow. Today, the Fed’s Open Market Operations Committee will announce its decision. With a 98% probability, the rate will remain unchanged. That is characteristic 2% put on a decrease in the rate. Obviously, the rate change is not worth waiting. But in general, if you look at the likelihood of lowering the rate until the end of the year, then the tendency is rather “dovish”: the probability that by the end of the year the rate will be decreased is 60-70%. What does this mean for the dollar? - Nothing good. Yesterday's sales - further proof of that. The weak inflation component in the latest report on US GDP indicates that the expectations of a rate hike in 2019 by the Fed are not that baseless. Thus, yesterday the markets were discounted under a possible "pigeon" tone by the Fed. Note that as a reason for the Fed’s optimism is the latest figures for US GDP (they are much higher than forecasts). So the results are quite unpredictable in terms of the Central Bank’s comments. Our position as a whole is to sell the dollar. But, it will need to be adjusted in the process of results announcement. Returning to the events of yesterday, we should note relatively good data on the Eurozone GDP (exceeded forecasts: 0.4%, with market expectations averaging 0.3%). But the GDP of Canada frankly disappointed: in February, the indicator fell by 0.1%. In addition, the situation with unemployment in the Eurozone was better than experts' expectations (7.7%, with a forecast of 7.8%). In this light, yesterday's growth of EURUSD above 1.12 can be considered as logical. Democratic Leader Senator Chuck Schumer called on the United States to impose additional sanctions against Russia. And today, in the US Congress should pass a hearing on Russia, which could result in another tightening of sanctions. As for our positions, today we are continuing to look for points for the dollar sales against the euro, pound, as well as the Australian and Canadian dollars. In addition, we will buy gold, as well as sell oil and the Russian ruble on the intraday basis.
Long
by Trade24Fx
USD bullishness didn’t spill over to the USD/JPY – GDP to help?On Friday, Forex traders will be focused on the new dataset covering the US economy for Q1/2019. In Q4 of last year, the US economy advanced at an annualized 2.2% on quarter, well below a 2.6% growth in the second estimate and compared to 3.4% in Q3/2018. So, the question will be whether this trend of pessimistic readings continues, and how the USD will react. While we would usually expect the USD to drop in response to negative readings below expectations of 2.1%, after the USD index future instead broke out to new yearly highs, currently about to attack 98.00 points. Bullish momentum is probably only temporarily interrupted, but strong enough for a technical reversal. That said, a reading above expectations could accelerate the move in the USD index future and result in a weekly close above 98.00 points. Interestingly enough, the USDJPY wasn't really able to profit from the USD bullishness. We only saw a short spike above 112 to near-highs, but no follow through. While a reading above expectations (> 2.1%) could certainly result in another attempt to sustainably break above 112.40 where further gains up to 114.50/115.00 become an option, a disappointing data set resulting in a stabilisation/corrective move in the USD could push the USD/JPY back towards 110.80/111.00 in the days to come.
by Admiral_Markets
1
Where investors will run to? OPEC +, it’s time to buy euroQuite unclear statistics on personal income and expenses in the United States appeared on Monday. The first one came out worse than expected, and the second - better. In addition, Europe has reported a low level of consumer confidence. Firstly, the euro is very cheap, and secondly, today we are waiting for data on the GDP of the Eurozone and a data block for Germany. Societe Generale recommends analysts to buy EURUSD with targets of 1.16. The reason - hopes for improving the economic situation in the Eurozone. Nouriel Roubini (American economist, a professor at NYU's Stern School of Business) broke out with apocalyptic predictions about the future recession in the global economy and the early flight of investors into safe assets. Among the possible triggers of global problems, Roubini calls the huge debts accumulated by countries, especially the US, trade wars between the US and China, the bad shape of the Eurozone economy, the political risks of developing countries (Turkey, Venezuela, Iran, Brazil, etc.), as well as unpredictable Trump’s actions on the eve of the 2020 elections in the United States. In this light, we recall our recommendations for buying gold. If investors run, then this is determined by one of their goals. Meanwhile, OPEC + is trying to stop the start of the correction in the oil market. In particular, Russian President Putin announced the fulfillment of the OPEC + deal, none of the participating countries raised the question of whether to withdraw from the deal as well. Recall the deal expires in June. And its non-renewal is fraught with the appearance on the market of an additional 1.2 million b / d. This will definitely lead to a sharp decline in oil prices. Our position on oil this week is unchanged - we look forward to the start of the correction and recommend selling the asset. Another reason for reflection was the information that more than one-third of the 80 respondents (managers at Central Banks owning assets of € 7 trillion) made it clear that they are ready to reduce the share of British assets under their personal control (the results of a Central Banking Publications survey). Given that we are talking about tens of billions of pounds that could potentially be spilled onto the market, this news is very negative for pound buyers. However, while there are no facts, it’s obviously premature to panic. As for our positions, today we are continuing to look for points for selling the dollar against the euro, pound, as well as the Australian and Canadian dollars. In addition, we will buy gold, as well as sell oil and the Russian ruble on the intraday basis.
Long
by Trade24Fx
US GDP growth, Trump called to OPEC and a hard week ahead Last week was marked by a significant strengthening of the dollar growth. We noted that one of the reasons was the expectation of good data on US GDP last Friday. Preliminary data for the first quarter appeared much higher than analysts' forecasts: + 3.2% y / y, when the forecast was expected as + 2.3%. But the most interesting thing that happened after the publication of this data was that the dollar has undergone a fairly massive sales on all fronts. In high rates of GDP growth, analysts noted the risk of a future recession in the United States. The fact is that the first quarter growth in 2019, the US GDP is bound to increase stocks and exports. While consumer demand showed a rather weak trend. This was confirmed by the inflationary component of GDP, which grew by only 0.9% after rising by 1.7% in the previous quarter. In addition, experts are very alerted by such an indicator as final sales of products to national buyers. This figure is falling for the second quarter in a row and shows that the effect of Trump's tax incentives has ended. Thus, the situation with demand in the country is deteriorating. Recall that 2/3 of US GDP is directly or indirectly related to the consumer sector. So, it seems like the dollar buyers shouldn't just be excited. Our position remains unchanged so far - we believe that the dollar is too expensive, and we will continue to look for points for its sales: both in the medium term and on the intraday basis. Another significant event on Friday was sales in the oil market. The asset literally was covered with the panic wave, which provoked a sharp decline in the cost of oil. The reason was Trump's call to OPEC, in which the President of the United States told the cartel to lower oil prices. We are rather sceptical about the information about Trump's call, but such massive profit-taking out of the blue suggests that the market is ripe for a correction. Especially when you consider that the number of active oil installations in the United States for the week decreased by 20 units (!) To 805 units, which is the minimum value in 2019 (that confirms the current weakness and vulnerability of bulls). In this regard, this week we decided to roll over into oil sales. And today we will look for points for the sale of an asset within the day. Talking about the upcoming week, we note that it will be very difficult for trading - too much important information. We want to note Eurozone GDP data that will be published on Tuesday, the Fed's decision on the parameters of monetary policy on Wednesday, the announcement of the results of the Bank of England meeting on Thursday, and statistics on the US labor market will complete a difficult week. As for our other positions, today we are continuing to look for points for the dollar sales against the euro, pound, as well as the Australian and Canadian dollars. In addition, we will buy gold, as well as sell oil and the Russian ruble on the intraday basis.
Long
by Trade24Fx
What is behind the dollar growth? Forex Market Trading PlanYesterday's dollar growth took many by surprise on the foreign exchange market. The dollar index has reached its maximum in the last couple of years. Let's try to understand the reasons for this growth, as well as reflect on the near future of the US currency and trading tactics. There were several suggested explanations for the growth of the dollar by leading analysts and traders. One of them - the rise in prices on the oil market will trigger an increase in inflationary pressure in the United States. In turn, the unwinding of the inflation spiral will force the Fed to reconsider its current position in relation to rates. The process of raising them will be removed from the pause and the Central Bank will continue to increase the rate. Another reason for the dollar growth, voiced by analysts, was the expectation of good statistics on US GDP for the first quarter and the current strengthening of the US currency - an attempt to discount for good data. As we see, both explanations are outside the plane of facts and, in fact, are trading on expectations and rumors. That is, the markets routinely “buy” rumors, so than to sell the facts. In this regard, we are extremely skeptical about the prospects for further growth of the dollar in the foreign exchange market. At least, till growth begins to be based on facts. For example, will excellent data on US GDP will actually come out? Or the Fed will make some real statements and actual actions? So far this week, data on sales of new homes in the United States (reached the maximum for the last year and a half marks: + 4.5% with a forecast of -2.7%). Note that the dollar growth has also contributed to the weakness of its main competitors. The euro was declining due to problems with Italy (rating agencies may downgrade Italy), the pound was traditionally “upset” because of the lack of progress in Brexit (according to rumors, Theresa May is serious about voting on the Brexit bill again, on the next week, considering that nothing radical it was not included in it, the chances for another failure are very high), the Swiss franc and gold were falling because of the general growth of investors' “appetite” to risk, and their exit from safe-haven assets.Thus, our position on the dollar remains unchanged - we will continue to look for points for its sales in the foreign exchange market. And we will do this in double volumes with obligatory and rather rigid stops. However, the size of potential profits justifies such a risk. In relation to the news, the following day is interesting because of the meeting results of the Bank of Canada. The Central Bank is likely to leave the parameters of monetary policy unchanged. But the recent rise in oil prices has definitely played into the hands of the Canadian dollar. So, we recommend watching USDCAD- current quotes look exceptionally attractive for its sales. Our trading plan for today is USDCAD sale from 1.3450 with stops above 1.3520 and profits around 1.33. Despite the fact that we are going against the current “will” of the market, today we will continue to look for points for selling the dollar against the euro, the pound and especially the Canadian dollar. We will wait for a little with buying of gold, but we will look for points for buying oil on the intraday basis.
Short
by Trade24Fx
2
Data from China and the US, world trade is at crisis pointThe statistics from China was the main news event of yesterday. It seems that government measures to stimulate the economy have taken effect. Retail sales and industrial production were much higher than analysts' forecasts of 8.7% and 8.5%. As a result, GDP growth was also pleasantly surprised: 6.4% quarterly growth, with market expectations of 6.3%. The progress in the negotiations between the US and China the result is the decline in gold and the Japanese yen and it looked quite logical and reasonable. But we are still not in a hurry to sell gold. At least today. Moreover, the negotiations are rumors, and the facts are that in the fourth quarter of 2018, world trade fell by 1.8% q / q, which was a record value in the last ten years since the global financial crisis. According to The Telegraph, the recent downturn in world trade is similar to the dot-com bubble collapsed in 2001. Over the past almost 20 years, things were worse only in 2007–2008, when the volume of world trade fell by 12.7%. The dollar “received support” from data on the US trade balance. The deficit turned out to be less than experts had expected: - $ 49.4 billion with the forecast - $ 53.4 billion. We were pleased with the markets and data on the trade balance of Canada, which also came out better than expected. So the main beneficiary of the news of yesterday was the Canadian dollar, which strengthened well, although at the end of the day lost most of the gains. Recall that for the Canadian dollar, which is a typical commodity currency, positive news from China, coupled with positive macroeconomic statistics and high oil prices create almost perfect conditions for growth. Yesterday's news background is generally favorable for commodity markets. But oil was not able to take advantage of this and dropped at the end of the day. We consider this as a signal that the market correction has already matured. Accordingly, while asset quotes are at the local top, we decided to roll over from buying to sales. However, if oil resumes its growth (it will be able to consolidate above 64.50). So today we sell oil with stops above 64.50.
by Trade24Fx
Snooze Ville in FOREX, pound’s immunity and China gives hopeIn general, the previous week was relatively calm. As a result, the volatility index of exchange rates, which is calculated by the investment bank JP Morgan, fell to its new minimum since 2014. For instance EURUSD. Since the beginning of 2019(that is already 3.5 months), it has been fluctuating in a range of width less than 400 points (such a range a pair could pass in 3-4 days even without any volatility explosions). The most likely contenders for the “role” of irritant can only note the start of a full-fledged trade war between the US and the EU. The main event of the week was another Brexit postponement. In general, the word “another” has already become a prefix to Brexit: the next voting in Parliament, the next failure of May’s plan, the next negotiations, etc. The main result of the appearance of this “prefix” was the development of immunity in pounds for information regarding Brexit. The GBPUSD dynamics of last week is proof of that. Actually, we can hardly expect any breakthroughs this week, that means that the pound will continue to fluctuate without a clear direction. This should be used for active trading with no clear preference, buying a pound on descents and selling after local growth. Among other events, it is worth noting the publication of the Fed's minutes, as well as the announcement of the results of the ECB meeting (again, nothing new and unexpected). It is worth paying attention to the block of key data on the Chinese economy (GDP and industrial production). After the next drop in forecasts of the pace of economic development by the IMF, the markets would be very happy to see a positive trend in the economic development of the world economy. In general, there are reasons for optimism. On Friday, data on China’s trade balance were published, which showed an extreme rise in China’s exports. In addition, a sharp increase in loans showed that measures to stimulate the economy in China seem to be yielding results. In terms of trading preferences, we start approximately the same as we ended the previous one: we will continue to look for points for selling the dollar in the foreign exchange market (except USDJPY, we are buying it), buying gold and oil in the commodity markets, besides continue to sell the Russian ruble.
by Trade24Fx
NFP, May asks EU for Brexit delay, and The USA oil productionBureau of Labor Statistics reported employment data on Friday. Data on NFP pleasantly surprised “fans” of the dollar. With market expectations + 177K, in fact, came out + 196K. After the failure of the previous data, the level of fear that the US labor market is experiencing serious problems has subsided. But the mood was spoiled by data on the average hourly wage, which grew by only 0.1% (analysts had expected growth of 0.3%). In general, the data can be interpreted as positive for the dollar, but its growth was moderate. This suggests that its growth potential is limited. In this regard, this week we are looking for points for selling dollar. We give the current summary of Brexit. Theresa May officially requested the EU to postpone until June 30 in order to negotiate with the opposition and create a version of the agreement for which the Parliament will vote. However, it remains to be seen whether the EU will provide this delay or not. Last month, the EU has already refused to provide it until June 30 and may well “resist”, citing the need for a longer delay. So everything remains unclear and tense. More clarity on the idea will be April 10, when the EU will convene an emergency summit on Brexit. EU leaders will meet April 10 at an emergency summit this will clarify the Brexit situation. Recall the United Kingdom should either leave the EU without a deal or agree on a new postponement on Friday. The pound is under pressure. We continue to believe in the common sense of both parties and that the UK will not come out with no deal. Therefore, our trading tactics are unchanged - we buy a pound on descent. Trade negotiations between the US and China are still in progress, and the parties continue to radiate optimism. A few words about the oil market. Last week we already noted that the data of the US Department of Energy recorded the fact of a new absolute record of oil production in the USA - 12.2 million barrels. So on Friday, data from Baker Hughes was published, which showed that the number of oil rigs in the United States increased by 19 units. Signals are definitely bearish for the oil market. The sharp drop in oil production in Venezuela and the effect of OPEC + No. 2 offset production growth in the United States so far, and events in Libya only add optimism to oil buyers. But the situation, in our opinion, is becoming increasingly dangerous from the point of view of oil prospects. So, we still continue to look for points for buying on the intraday basis, but with a much lower level of aggression at the same time we are beginning to gradually prepare for correction, as well as open medium-term positions for sale. OPEC + No. 2 will soon expire and if it is not renewed, the massacre will begin on the oil market. The EU will probably be the main news generator. The meeting of the European Central Bank on Wednesday and the EU decision to postpone for the UK will be the main events of the week. Pay attention to the text of the minutes of the last FOMC Fed meeting, UK GDP and inflation rate for the United States. And once again we remind, April 12 is the current official date of the UK exit from the EU. In general, it will not be boring and volatile, it means there will be a lot of opportunities for earnings.
Long
by Trade24Fx
3
Forex Reaction to GDPWhen someone mentions Macroeconomics, they are automatically talking about the big picture of the economy. Macroeconomics is concerned with the large-scale view of an economy and there are usually four main factors that make up this subject: GDP, Inflation, Unemployment, and Interest Rates. In most cases, changes in these factors could drive the Forex market in one way or another. Among the most important economic indicators that capture the whole economy’s behavior is GDP. GDP is the accumulation of the economic output that represents where the economy stands in the business cycle. With increasing GDP readings, the economy is witnessing an expansion; hence, the currency appreciates. While decreasing GDP readings signal that the economy is deteriorating and witnessing recessionary periods; hence, the currency depreciates.
GPW:EUREducation
by RoyalFinancialTrading
NZDCAD about to make new lows (TA and FA)According to the elliot wave theory, FX:NZDCAD . is at its correction phase, and using the fib extension we get T1 for the small ABC wave and T2 for the bigger wave; T1 is short term while T2 is mid/long term Another thing to keep in mind, is that China is expected to report on Monday that economic growth cooled to its slowest in 28 years and this means that CNH is going down and we all know that CNH is positively correlated to both AUD and NZD.
Short
by Crabsy
AUDJPY: Reversal candlestick forming at hor. and Fib resistanceHere we have a potential short setup in the AUDJPY pair. The daily chart shows an important resistance close to current prices, aligned with the 61.8% Fibo retracement level. The pair has been in a downtrend for quite some time, and the price correction may be about to end. The daily candles show a Shooting Star/Evening Star reversal pattern, which still needs to be confirmed by the close of today's candle. The pair has seen some buying pressure recently, mainly on hopes of a US-China trade resolution, but the Australian dollar has been also hit by a slowdown in the Chinese economy (China's GDP q/y slowest in a decade). China is a major trading partner for Australia, and slowing Chinese demand for Australian goods/natural resources may cause a deterioration in Australia's terms of trade (in the long run.) In the short-run, we'll wait for this short setup to be confirmed by the candlestick pattern before entering with a sell order.
Short
by MujkanovicFX
SPX Looking WeakSo upon looking at several factors I believe the price of stocks are fully priced atm, and that 2900 was the top for the SPX, I believe the bottom will be around 1580 or 1800 and will take about a year for us to reach the bottom, so by the year 2020 we will see bullish momentum again and that is when I will be looking to enter stocks again. Right now in my opinion the best asset to hold is bitcoin and gold, Reason for 2900 being the top, 1. End of 5 wave count based on elliot wave analysis 2. Stocks are overpriced based on Marketcap over GDP 3. Time analysis, we have been in a bull market for 10 years 4. Stocks look similar to the late 1930's
SP:SPXShort
by StevenRodas