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Snooze Ville in FOREX, pound’s immunity and China gives hopeIn general, the previous week was relatively calm. As a result, the volatility index of exchange rates, which is calculated by the investment bank JP Morgan, fell to its new minimum since 2014. For instance EURUSD. Since the beginning of 2019(that is already 3.5 months), it has been fluctuating in a range of width less than 400 points (such a range a pair could pass in 3-4 days even without any volatility explosions). The most likely contenders for the “role” of irritant can only note the start of a full-fledged trade war between the US and the EU. The main event of the week was another Brexit postponement. In general, the word “another” has already become a prefix to Brexit: the next voting in Parliament, the next failure of May’s plan, the next negotiations, etc. The main result of the appearance of this “prefix” was the development of immunity in pounds for information regarding Brexit. The GBPUSD dynamics of last week is proof of that. Actually, we can hardly expect any breakthroughs this week, that means that the pound will continue to fluctuate without a clear direction. This should be used for active trading with no clear preference, buying a pound on descents and selling after local growth. Among other events, it is worth noting the publication of the Fed's minutes, as well as the announcement of the results of the ECB meeting (again, nothing new and unexpected). It is worth paying attention to the block of key data on the Chinese economy (GDP and industrial production). After the next drop in forecasts of the pace of economic development by the IMF, the markets would be very happy to see a positive trend in the economic development of the world economy. In general, there are reasons for optimism. On Friday, data on China’s trade balance were published, which showed an extreme rise in China’s exports. In addition, a sharp increase in loans showed that measures to stimulate the economy in China seem to be yielding results. In terms of trading preferences, we start approximately the same as we ended the previous one: we will continue to look for points for selling the dollar in the foreign exchange market (except USDJPY, we are buying it), buying gold and oil in the commodity markets, besides continue to sell the Russian ruble.
by Trade24Fx
NFP, May asks EU for Brexit delay, and The USA oil productionBureau of Labor Statistics reported employment data on Friday. Data on NFP pleasantly surprised “fans” of the dollar. With market expectations + 177K, in fact, came out + 196K. After the failure of the previous data, the level of fear that the US labor market is experiencing serious problems has subsided. But the mood was spoiled by data on the average hourly wage, which grew by only 0.1% (analysts had expected growth of 0.3%). In general, the data can be interpreted as positive for the dollar, but its growth was moderate. This suggests that its growth potential is limited. In this regard, this week we are looking for points for selling dollar. We give the current summary of Brexit. Theresa May officially requested the EU to postpone until June 30 in order to negotiate with the opposition and create a version of the agreement for which the Parliament will vote. However, it remains to be seen whether the EU will provide this delay or not. Last month, the EU has already refused to provide it until June 30 and may well “resist”, citing the need for a longer delay. So everything remains unclear and tense. More clarity on the idea will be April 10, when the EU will convene an emergency summit on Brexit. EU leaders will meet April 10 at an emergency summit this will clarify the Brexit situation. Recall the United Kingdom should either leave the EU without a deal or agree on a new postponement on Friday. The pound is under pressure. We continue to believe in the common sense of both parties and that the UK will not come out with no deal. Therefore, our trading tactics are unchanged - we buy a pound on descent. Trade negotiations between the US and China are still in progress, and the parties continue to radiate optimism. A few words about the oil market. Last week we already noted that the data of the US Department of Energy recorded the fact of a new absolute record of oil production in the USA - 12.2 million barrels. So on Friday, data from Baker Hughes was published, which showed that the number of oil rigs in the United States increased by 19 units. Signals are definitely bearish for the oil market. The sharp drop in oil production in Venezuela and the effect of OPEC + No. 2 offset production growth in the United States so far, and events in Libya only add optimism to oil buyers. But the situation, in our opinion, is becoming increasingly dangerous from the point of view of oil prospects. So, we still continue to look for points for buying on the intraday basis, but with a much lower level of aggression at the same time we are beginning to gradually prepare for correction, as well as open medium-term positions for sale. OPEC + No. 2 will soon expire and if it is not renewed, the massacre will begin on the oil market. The EU will probably be the main news generator. The meeting of the European Central Bank on Wednesday and the EU decision to postpone for the UK will be the main events of the week. Pay attention to the text of the minutes of the last FOMC Fed meeting, UK GDP and inflation rate for the United States. And once again we remind, April 12 is the current official date of the UK exit from the EU. In general, it will not be boring and volatile, it means there will be a lot of opportunities for earnings.
Long
by Trade24Fx
3
Forex Reaction to GDPWhen someone mentions Macroeconomics, they are automatically talking about the big picture of the economy. Macroeconomics is concerned with the large-scale view of an economy and there are usually four main factors that make up this subject: GDP, Inflation, Unemployment, and Interest Rates. In most cases, changes in these factors could drive the Forex market in one way or another. Among the most important economic indicators that capture the whole economy’s behavior is GDP. GDP is the accumulation of the economic output that represents where the economy stands in the business cycle. With increasing GDP readings, the economy is witnessing an expansion; hence, the currency appreciates. While decreasing GDP readings signal that the economy is deteriorating and witnessing recessionary periods; hence, the currency depreciates.
GPW:EUREducation
by RoyalFinancialTrading
NZDCAD about to make new lows (TA and FA)According to the elliot wave theory, FX:NZDCAD . is at its correction phase, and using the fib extension we get T1 for the small ABC wave and T2 for the bigger wave; T1 is short term while T2 is mid/long term Another thing to keep in mind, is that China is expected to report on Monday that economic growth cooled to its slowest in 28 years and this means that CNH is going down and we all know that CNH is positively correlated to both AUD and NZD.
Short
by Crabsy
AUDJPY: Reversal candlestick forming at hor. and Fib resistanceHere we have a potential short setup in the AUDJPY pair. The daily chart shows an important resistance close to current prices, aligned with the 61.8% Fibo retracement level. The pair has been in a downtrend for quite some time, and the price correction may be about to end. The daily candles show a Shooting Star/Evening Star reversal pattern, which still needs to be confirmed by the close of today's candle. The pair has seen some buying pressure recently, mainly on hopes of a US-China trade resolution, but the Australian dollar has been also hit by a slowdown in the Chinese economy (China's GDP q/y slowest in a decade). China is a major trading partner for Australia, and slowing Chinese demand for Australian goods/natural resources may cause a deterioration in Australia's terms of trade (in the long run.) In the short-run, we'll wait for this short setup to be confirmed by the candlestick pattern before entering with a sell order.
Short
by MujkanovicFX
SPX Looking WeakSo upon looking at several factors I believe the price of stocks are fully priced atm, and that 2900 was the top for the SPX, I believe the bottom will be around 1580 or 1800 and will take about a year for us to reach the bottom, so by the year 2020 we will see bullish momentum again and that is when I will be looking to enter stocks again. Right now in my opinion the best asset to hold is bitcoin and gold, Reason for 2900 being the top, 1. End of 5 wave count based on elliot wave analysis 2. Stocks are overpriced based on Marketcap over GDP 3. Time analysis, we have been in a bull market for 10 years 4. Stocks look similar to the late 1930's
SP:SPXShort
by StevenRodas
USDJPY Short, Let's try this again...Preliminary GDP Q/Q came out today under expectation a little bit, and the yen buyers were willing to put in a little bit earlier. A strong engulfing bar on 5M (17:00 UTC Bar), with sellers immediately below it, which indicates yen buying order flow (They are placing sell stop entries below that level and subsequent signal bars). There is a 3rd test to the upside on D chart, and I think it's a good short signal for the rest of the week at least- who knows- maybe into next. That price action resistance, combined with the less than positive prelim U.S. GDP numbers I think will be the start of a larger leg to the downside. There seem to be a lot of market making today, at least for a lower volume time like this, at the end of the year.
Short
by Firex8
EURUSD Pair Has Negative Bias to the Downside...Be CautiousBy looking at the 4-hour chart and the daily chart, the EUR/USD currency pair has taken a turn to the upside. The pair had rebounded from 1.1211 a hair below our hypothesized bullish entry point of 1.1215. The pair had a 2.5% probability of falling lower than our hypothesized support area. However, we deduced that for something like that to happen, there would have had to be some kind of dovish catalytic speech/sentiment uttered by the European central bank president Draghi or similar dovish news. Therefore, we suspected that sooner or later the pair would attempt to claw back to its hypothesized moving average of 1.1506, but before that happened, the EUR/USD pair would’ve had to elevate toward our 1.1215 mark, which it did. Now, we are convinced that it will continue in the short term toward our next hypothesized target of 1.1361 before it finally gets back to its moving average sweet spot of 1.1506. There is a strong possibility that the pair could surpass its hypothesized moving average of 1.1506 and continue toward our next target of 1.1652 and possibly 1.1798, but this is as far as the pair will go up the charts because fundamentally, the Euro zone economy is weak, and the Eurozone’s economic cycle is nearing its peak. In fact, the EU economy is already acting as if it has commenced its recession cycle. Please click here to see the entire article.
by mstardom