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S&P 500 : Ahead of a massive bull market like 1995 ? ... noThis double chart have one and only purpose... to simply destroy any king of idea about the S&P that could be about to perform crazy like it did in the 1995-2000 rallye. That's just non-sense and purely stupid. Not only the context is totally different... cause back then the GDP was the true gas of that rallye... as today everyone knows that we will never be able to match such growth nowadays... Plus, the first chart highlights the fact that, related to GDP, we are actually pricing the S&P today just like we did in the top of the 2000 bullmarket, not the beginning of it ! So instead of giving a sign of bullish support this chart actually shows more bear probabilities ! And if this arguments doesn't convince you, then simply have a look at the durable goods order, the most reliable hard data to forecast earnings... Do you see any kind of reliable following of the recent parabolic uptrend ? I don't ! So the real question is what drives the market ? Well this is a complex answer... But the only thing I can tell is that every person that argue this bull market is similar to 1995 is just non-sense ! Just to set things straight... I'm not saying I want to short the market tomorrow.. I just say that this theory that says the market is at the beginning of a massive bullish move.. well .. not likely to me ! and most likely reaching the endpoint soon. Hope this idea will inspire some of you ! Don't forget to hit the like/follow button if you feel like this post deserves it ;) You can check my indicators via my TradingView's Profile : @PRO_Indicators Kindly, Phil
SP:SPX
by PRO_Indicators
1
Two options with EURUSD; more sided with short.I am more leaning towards the sell because of economic principles; The European Central Bank as decreased its bond buy activity which means they are pumping less money supply into the economy and in other terms, since they are not spending money in buying bonds, GDP must decrease to some extent if all other variables are constant. The formula for GDP is = C + I + G + (X - M). G is the government spending. So if all other things are relatively the same, and the government spends less money, GDP has to decrease so therefore the value of the Euro has to decrease as well since the value depends on GDP as well as other factors. That is just my economic reasoning. "The European Central Bank said Thursday it would carry on buying government bonds deep into next year but in reduced monthly amounts , a milestone policy shift that signals it will follow the U.S. Federal Reserve on a path toward higher interest rates." -The Wall Street Journal
Short
by DennisPTran07
GBPCAD Triangle/Wedge/Pennant ExampleFundamentally we know that GBP is strong and that CAD is weak. GBP had a good beat on GDP data yesterday. CAD has been weaker due to the neutral/dovish statements made yesterday by the Bank of Canada. There was a large initial move yesterday and we are currently in a pullback. While in the pullback the a Triangle/Wedge/Pennant formation developed. I know they are all technically different, but to me they all represent a consolidation before a breakout. I use Fundamentals to determine direction. So to me, they are all more or less the same. I thought this was a good example. Hopefully it continues to break upwards.
by basquefxb1
GBPUSD Fundamental/Technical setupHaving broken through the previous 1.22 - 1.26 range off the back of the general election announcement, GBPUSD appears to have established a new range between support at previous resistance (1.26) and new resistance at 1.3 the 1.3 level has now been tested for a third time, with what appears to be a false break earlier this month. News tomorrow supporting the British economy could well lead us into a new range between 1.3, and 1.33, particularly considering the low likelihood of a fed decision to increase interest rates across the pond. In spite of these possible results, the more likely outcome is for the Cable to maintain its current range, particularly considering the IMF's recent decision to downgrade projected UK growth from 2.0 to 1.7% for the coming year. I will therefore wait for the result of the economic releases from the UK tomorrow, and set a Short entry at 1.3, with a TP at 1.265 towards the bottom of the predicted range, and the SL at 1.315, just above the most recent false BO. Good Luck! TW
by Trade_Wind
Gold scenarios for next few daysGold 0.06% been trending upwards nicely in a channel, off an inverted H&S bottom and break of the downward channel, pushing through some key levels. Lots of data tomorrow too in EU and US. Could push this around and give us continuation or a breakdown. The channel is clear and some other decent levels to watch for opportunities, keep an open mind on direction from here. There's no crystal ball but resolution of battle for 1250-1260 zone should be significant. Can see $20 move in either direction once resolved, at least. Probably more if managed well. Position lightly and from the edges, be patient, manage risk tightly, and let the winners run - that should get you on the right side of a decent move in the coming days, in my opinion.
FX:XAUUSD
by BobVanders
GBP/JPY HEAD AND SHOULDER PATTERNGBP/JPY has formed a head and shoulder pattern on the 1H and 4H charts, indicating that a top has been made and price will carry on its retrace from the last 2 weeks of bullish gains. Traders should wait for a breakout of the pennant/flag that contains this pattern. Wednesday - (Jul) Manufacturing Production, BoE Gov Mark Carney Speaks and BoE reports on current inflation. Thursday - JPY GDP (Q2) data and various others, Positive data and strong yen (currently) will play a huge factor in a bearish move to the 61.8% Fib retrace level. Possible that it can break and reach 1D support 129.10 Currently I am short and have been when price kissed the 1D resistance Friday afternoon.
Short
by RenkoBuddy
AUDJPY Trading Within Downwards ChannelAUDJPY Daily – Since late November 2015, AUDJPY has been trading within a downwards channel. As we head towards the final quarter of 2016, investors will be focussing on the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of Japan who could both cut rates even further. Earlier this week, the RBA chose to keep rates unchanged but low inflation rates and a lower than expected GDP figure for Q2 could see the RBA cut rates for a third time before the end of the year. The past month has seen the Aussie Dollar making high gains as commodities have started to regain losses and the Chinese economy has begun to stabilise but this means that it is more expensive to import from Australia which further strengthens the case to reduce interest rates. A weaker currency would also help the economy to stabilise further as well as increase foreign investment into Australian bonds. The Australian Dollar and Japanese Yen will both be affected by the decision of the FOMC and whether they still intend to hike rates this year. Koichi Hamada, an economic adviser to the Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has said that the Bank of Japan should wait until the US make a decision later on this month about whether to rate hikes or not because it could have a greater effect compared to any decision the Bank of Japan makes. The Bank of Japan governor said that they will continue to ease monetary policy until they reach their inflation target of 2% which could mean further interest rate cuts. The main issue faced by Japan currently, is that decision by the central bank are having an opposite effect with the Japanese Yen strengthening rather than weakening. This has heavily hit their economy with the GDP in the second quarter falling to 0.2% as they rely heavily on exports. Over the coming months, the movement of this pair will depend largely on decisions made by the US Federal Reserve. With the Yen seen as a safe haven, further interest rate cuts or a weakening world economy would see AUDJPY falling towards 72.000. Alternatively, this pair could continue upwards as it has done recently and test the level of 80.000.
Short
by priyesh
XAUUSD : Review on Various Bull Possiblities.Its been very evident that even the strongest bears went positive since BREXIT on Precious Metals for intermittent rally or pullback from the supercycles as we call. Everybody would agree that 1300-1310 would serve as strong demand area and resistance from previous tops especially March 2015 highs. The breach woud open the gate to 12XX and bear would take thier chance to push down as much as possible it can. Probably 1250-1211 would be bears targeting for. On current Daily Chart I see huge range play from 1300-1330 for next whole week and I believe this the last bear week and will make perfect Bull Flag on weekly. We have bottomed the STOCH and RSI hover around 48-50 on daily. So Huge Sideways possible within range till 27 July, Yellen still might not give green signal to rate hikes in august as statisticians or Economists would treat previous two NFP data as Anomaolies and would wait for more evidence on job reports. Dovish stand likely to induce rally in all PM and would again try to target previous tops and 1375-1390 Region. I have charted all bull possiblites, if not anyone of those being played, God help the bulls !! because it will dive down so hard that even bear has not imagine. Good Luck for Next Week Happy Trading.
FX:XAUUSD
by robus
1
SHORT EURUSD: ECB MEMBER NOWOTNY + DOWNSIDE ECONOMIC REVISIONSECB nowotny reiterated senior member official sentiments regarding the situation with Italian banks unsurprisingly saying people "Should not over dramatise situation regarding Italian Banks". He also hawkish said that the Brexit impact forecasted on the EUROZONE economy would be less than the IMF forecasts. Perhaps the most important sentiment though was that regarding the ECB's APP which is due to end in March 2017 saying "Future path of QE decision to be made in Q4" and "Still open to whether to phase QE purchases out or not" - providing little inferences whether the ECB expects to extend or end their APP. However, one would think, unless the underlying inflation trend was to pick up, certainly there would be an extension/ phase out of QE. A source from social media reported on the matter with more conviction and to the hawkish side saying "Reports Said To See No Current Urgency For QE Action In September". Nowotny playing his cards close to his chest regarding the future ECB QE path is unsurprising, however, the Social Media Report claims are a little more worrying given they somewhat write off fresh QE action for the ECB's september meeting - something which many banks/ consensus thought would be the case, given the persistently low Euro inflation and hints from ECB minutes/ Draghi that maturity extension would be likely at the September meeting. However, the authenticity/ reliability of the reports has to be considered given the source is social media. On a more certain note the ECB Polled forecasters posted dovish/ EUR bearish economic outlook figures for EUR, downgrading GDP and inflation readings for 2017 and 18, with 2016 staying unchanged . Trading strategy: 1. This personally doesnt change my material medium-term short EUR$ 1.1100 trade as the macro headwinds/ future headwinds described in previous posts still go unpriced. Though the short view is weakened slightly IF the above "no QE extension" is true since some of the future EUR$ downside was based on further ECB easing. Though all of which is just speculation, and without any conviction from officials, waiting for the September decision itself seems the smartest thing to do continuing short - especially as forecasted GDP/ Inflation figures have been reduced which is bearish for the EUR and as the USD leg of the trade continues to strengthen as rate hike expectations continue to increase in this risk-on market with Fed Funds Futures Opt Implied probs now trading at 19.5% for Sept, 20.8% Nove and 40% for Dec, up from yesterday at 18.8, 20 an 39.8 - the risk-on bias already started today will likely see these probabilities continue to strengthen until the end of the day. ECB Member Nowotny Comments: -ECB's Member Nowotny: "In principle decision from 2nd June not to employ new monetary tools remains true, new uncertainties have emerged." -ECB's Member Nowotny: Still open on whether QE will be phased out gradually or not -ECB's Member Nowotny: Future path Decision on QE to be made in Q4 -ECB's Member Nowotny: EZ 2017 Inflation Seen Over 1%, Sees No Acute Danger Of Deflation -ECB's Nowotny: BREXIT Effect on Eurozone GDP expected to be less than IMF forecast -ECB's Nowotny: Should not over dramatise situation regarding Italian Banks ECB Polled Forecasters: -ECB: Polled Forecasters See Eurozone 2016 HICP at 0.3%, Matching Previous Quarter -ECB: Forecasters See 2017 HICP at 1.2%, vs 1.3% Seen in 2Q -ECB: Forecasters See 2018 HICP at 1.5% vs 1.6% Seen in 2Q -ECB: Forecasters See 2016 GDP Growth at 1.5%, Matching Previous Qtr -ECB: Forecasters See 2017 GDP Growth at 1.4% vs 1.6% Seen in 2Q -ECB: Forecasters See 2018 GDP Growth at 1.6% vs 1.7% Seen in 2Q -ECB: 55% Of Respondents Included Estimate of UK Referendum Impact in Forecasts *See attached posts for more EUR$ downside fundamentals*
Short
by QuantumLogicTrading
GBPUSD SHORT: BOE/ FOMC POLICY EXPECTATIONS INCREASINGLY BEARISHFollowing today's Service/ Manufacturing PMI miss (worst contraction in 88 months - since 2009) the Sterling market has come under significant pressure as BOE rate cut expectations increase with OIS rates markets pricing a 94% chance of a 4th Aug cut vs 85% before the PMI's were released. Further, the PMI misses has attracted attention from UK Politicians e.g. Chancellor Hammond - which puts further qualitative pressure on the BOE to cut, rather than just quantitative data prints - Political pressure combined with data pressure is the best us GBP sellers can ask for when looking for a BOE rate cut. I have to say this is a breath of fresh air for GBPUSD shorts that i am holding (cable trades down to 1.30xx) - given that the start of the week was the complete opposite, with strong CPI/ Employment and Hawkish comments from MPC members Weale and Forbes; all of which reducing the pressure on the BOE to cut and thus the sterling market. Below also, following the PMIs we see Aug 4th BOE expectations from BoAML/ JPM - which call for a 25bps cut and 50bn addition to QE (with increased near-term pressure to do so/ act post-PMI) - in which imo will send GBP$ to 1.25, if not through - these expectations are encouraging for shorts thougb it should be remembered the cut was expected in July also but didnt materialise (though the minutes from the meeting did state "most members expect to ease in August". Further we see fresh recession concerns emerge as from Barclays below - once again putting downside pressure on GBP through poor GDP and increased BOE cut likihoods. Further, on the USD side of the trade, in this risk recovery we continue to view FOMC rate hike expectations rising - aiding dollar topside (and gbp$ downside) - as Fed Funds Futures Opt Implied probs now trade at 19.5% for Sept, 20.8% Nov and 40% for Dec, up from yesterday at 18.8, 20 an 39.8 - the risk-on bias already started today will likely see these probabilities continue to strengthen through the end of the day. Trading Strategy: 1. So from here after holding shorts at 1.3400 average, given this fresh and extreme impetus for downside - I will continue to hold my cable lower to the 1.285 target (unload 50%) and save 25-50% (depending if i unload 25% at the 1.305 level) for the Aug meeting itself where 1.25 is likely - where before today holding cable seemed more risky as the risks looked skewed to a hawkish BOE, which now has flipped. Unlikely, but any rallies to 1.33-35 level i will be reshorting - cable downside is a function of time imo. - I like holding short because BOJ are likely to ease, whilst the FOMC stay neutral/ Hawkish, this in turn puts more pressure on the BOE to ease/ GBP - in order to prevent GBP appreciating vs JPY (disinflationairy) BOE must ease too & hawkish FED stance puts pressure on GBPUSD lower. - Risks to the view continue to be if 1) New/ Weale/ Forbes continue to reiterate their hawkish/ no easing stance and perhaps less impactful; 2) Next weeks UK GDP reading - will not contain much Post brexit data so any upside is unlikely to give GBP strength, though downside is welcomed and could cause further selling (Low pre-Brexit GDP gives BOE more reason to cut) GBP OIS PRICING A 94% CHANCE OF A 25BPS CUT FROM THE BOE IN AUGUST (85% PRE PMI) - UK CHANCELLOR HAMMOND: Must restore uncertainty after July PMI - UK CHANCELLOR HAMMOND: BOE will use monetary policy tools at its disposal - UK CHANCELLOR HAMMOND: BOE have tools to respond to market turbulence in the short-term BoAML ON BOE: - We look for the BoE to cut rates 25bp and increase QE by £50bn in August, split between Gilts and private sector assets. - BoE inaction so far and heightened policy uncertainty leaves risk-reward unattractive in the front end in our view. - We prefer to position for potential BoE Gilt purchases, reiterating our 5s20s Gilt flattener as attractive in a QE-scenario. JP MORGAN ON BOE: - Current market pricing of a 25bps rate
Short
by QuantumLogicTrading
2