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RSI Flags Gold Risks Before GDP, PCE Data? Gold is set to face two major US economic data points this week, following last week’s surprise 50-basis-point interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve: U.S. GDP figures on Thursday and Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) on Friday Danielle DiMartino Booth of Quill Intelligence argues the Fed’s larger-than-expected cut signals concerns over potential negative GDP revisions, casting doubt on the chances of a “soft landing” for the U.S. economy. Jerome Powell is also going to be speaking on Thursday at the 2024 U.S. Treasury Market Conference. But his remarks may take a backseat to the data. The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) has climbed above 70, signaling overbought conditions and suggesting caution for gold buyers. If the metal turns corrective, the price could test $2,613.
BLACKBULL:XAUUSD
by BlackBull_Markets
AUD/USD rises to eight-month high, RBA nextThe Australian dollar has started the week with gains. AUD/USD touched a high of 0.6850, its highest level this year. In the North American session, the Australian dollar is trading at 0.6842, up 0.51% on the day. The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to maintain the cash rate at 4.35% at Tuesday’s meeting. The RBA has held rates since November, making it an outlier among the major central banks, most of which have lowered interest rates. Underlying inflation is at 3.9%, much higher than the target of between 2% and 3%. Australia releases August CPI on Wednesday, with headline CPI expected to fall to 2.8%, compared to 3.5% in July. The RBA was more cautious than other central banks during the rate-tightening cycle and its cash rate peaked one percent below the Federal Reserve. The flip side is that the RBA has been less aggressive as far as cutting rates and Governor Bullock has said that there are no plans to cut before February 2025. The RBA’s rate hikes have chilled economic growth as consumption has fallen sharply and GDP grew by only 1% in the second quarter. Still, the labor market has remained robust and unemployment is at 4.2%, as large-scale immigration has boosted the economy and helped avoid a recession. In the US, today’s PMIs had no impact on AUD/USD. The manufacturing PMI slipped to 47.0 in September, down from 47.9 in August and well off the market estimate of 48.5. This was the lowest level in thirteen months as new orders fell sharply. The services sector is in better shape as the PMI ticked lower to 54.4, compared to 54.6 in August and slightly above the market estimate of 54.3. 0.6865 has held in resistance since December 2023. Above, there is resistance at 0.6923 0.6781 and 0.6723 are the next support levels
by OANDA
1
NZ dollar eyes Fed meet, New Zealand GDPThe New Zealand dollar has posted gains on Wednesday. NZD/USD is trading at 0.6211 at the time of writing, up 0.44% on the day. Federal Reserve meetings are traditionally predictable affairs and don’t move the needle of the financial markets. Fed decision makers signal their intentions ahead of time in order to minimize market volatility. Today’s decision is up in the air and it remains unclear what the Fed is going to deliver – will it be a modest 25-basis point cut or a jumbo 50-bps slash? Market pricing of today’s cut has been swinging wildly, which could result in volatility after the decision. The Fed has maintained a stance of ‘higher for longer’ for over a year and has brought down inflation close to the 2% target. The expectation not long ago was that the Fed would kick off the new rate-tightening cycle with a traditional 25-bps cut. What has complicated matters is the recent deterioration in the US labor market. Job growth has fallen sharply and spooked the markets, with fears that the US economy could fall into a recession. The darkening employment picture has boosted the likelihood of a 50-bps cut, but such a deep cut could send a signal that the economy is in deep trouble and unnerve investors. The markets will be keeping a close eye on the Fed’s ‘dot plot’, which will signal the expected rate path over the next few years as well as updated economic forecasts. The Fed is expected to be aggressive in its rate cuts, now that inflation is largely beaten and the employment picture has deteriorated. Overshadowed by the dramatic Fed meeting, New Zealand will release second-quarter GDP early on Thursday. The markets are bracing for a contraction in growth. In the first quarter, the economy showed slight growth of 0.2% q/q and 0.3% y/y. This is expected to fall to -0.4% q/q and -0.5% y/y. NZD/USD has pushed above resistance at 0.6199. Above, there is resistance at 0.6240 There is support at 0.6153 and 0.6112
by OANDA
GBP/USD steady as UK wage growth eases, GDP nextThe British pound has edged lower on Tuesday. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3055, down 0.14% on the day. UK wage growth eased in the three months to July, an encouraging sign for the Bank of England as it looks to continue lowering rates. Average earnings excluding bonuses climbed 5.1% y/y, down from 5.4% in the previous period and in line with the market estimate. This was the lowest level since June 2022. Wage growth is moving in the right direction but is still much too high for the BoE’s liking as it is incompatible with the target of keeping inflation at 2%. The UK labour market remains strong, as the unemployment rate edged down to 4.1%, down from 4%. The economy created 265 thousand jobs in the three months to July, up sharply from 97 thousand in the previous report and blowing past the market estimate of 115 thousand. The solid data means that the BoE isn’t under pressure to cut rates next week, and the markets are looking at another cut in November. The UK economy gets a report card on Wednesday, with the release of GDP for July. The economy flatlined in June and rose just 0.6% in the three months to June. Another weak GDP release could put pressure on the British pound. Investors will be keeping a close eye on Wednesday’s US inflation release. The Federal Reserve is now focused on employment now that inflation is between 2% and 3%, but a CPI surprise could shake up the markets and change market pricing for a Fed rate cut. The odds of a 50-basis point cut have been slashed to 29%, compared to 59% on Friday. There is resistance at 1.3167 and 1.3225 1.3069 and 1.3011 are providing support
by OANDA
AUD/USD steady despite weak GDPThe Australian dollar is drifting on Wednesday. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6704 in the European session, down 0.10% today at the time of writing. The Australian dollar took a bath a day earlier, sliding 1.1%, one of the sharpest daily declines this year. Australia’s economy gained a paltry 0.2% q/q in the second quarter, shy of the market estimate of 0.3% and unchanged for a third consecutive quarter. This was the softest pace of growth in five quarters and the small gain was driven by higher government spending as household spending declined. Yearly, GDP climbed 1%, in line with the market estimate and down from 1.3% in the first quarter. This was the lowest annual GDP release since the fourth quarter of 2020. Australia’s economic picture is being described by some local commentators as a “horror show”. This is not a wild exaggeration as GDP is in the doldrums, inflation remains sticky and consumer spending was flat in July. The Reserve Bank has maintained rates at 4.35% since November but inflation hasn’t fallen as quickly as anticipated. The GDP release is unlikely to be a factor at the Reserve Bank of Australia’s next meeting on Sept. 24. The central bank is primarily concerned with inflation and the labor market. Governor Bullock has essentially ruled out a rate cut in the next six months but the markets have priced in a rate cut before year’s end and more cuts in early 2025. Bullock will speak at an event in Sydney early on Thursday and the markets will be looking for some insights from the hawkish Governor regarding future rate policy. There is support at 0.6681 and 0.6650 0.6738 and 0.6769 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
AUD/USD sinks ahead of GDPThe Australian dollar is sharply lower on Tuesday. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6732 in the European session, down 0.88% today at the time of writing. Australia’s economy has been sputtering and the markets aren’t expecting much change from second-quarter GDP on Wednesday. GDP is expected to trickle lower to 1% y/y, down from 1.1% in Q1, which was the weakest pace of growth since Q4 2020. Quarterly, the market estimate for GDP stands at 0.3%, compared to 0.1% in Q1. GDP-per-capita is expected to be negative, another indication that economic activity remains subdued. Australia has been hit by a drop in iron ore and core prices and exports fell by 4.4% in the second quarter, which doesn’t bode well for the Australian dollar. The GDP is unlikely to change the Reserve Bank of Australia’s plans when it meets on Sept. 24. The central bank is closely watching inflation, which remains stubbornly high, as well as the labor market. Governor Bullock has said she has no plans to lower the cash rate from its current 4.35% for the next six months. The RBA has stuck to its “higher for longer” stance and has maintained rates since November. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to lower rates on September 18, with a 70% likelihood of a quarter-point cut and a 31% likelihood of a half-point cut. Ahead of the meeting is a crucial employment report on Friday. The previous jobs report was much weaker than expected and triggered a meltdown in the financial markets. Another weak jobs report would raise the likelihood of a half-point cut, while a solid release will cement a quarter-point cut. AUD/USD has pushed below support at 0.6780 and is testing support at 0.6737. Below, there is support at 0.6708 0.6809 and 0.6852 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
AUD/USD sinks ahead of GDPThe Australian dollar is sharply lower on Tuesday. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6732 in the European session, down 0.88% today at the time of writing. Australia’s economy has been sputtering and the markets aren’t expecting much change from second-quarter GDP on Wednesday. GDP is expected to trickle lower to 1% y/y, down from 1.1% in Q1, which was the weakest pace of growth since Q4 2020. Quarterly, the market estimate for GDP stands at 0.3%, compared to 0.1% in Q1. GDP-per-capita is expected to be negative, another indication that economic activity remains subdued. Australia has been hit by a drop in iron ore and core prices and exports fell by 4.4% in the second quarter, which doesn’t bode well for the Australian dollar. The GDP is unlikely to change the Reserve Bank of Australia’s plans when it meets on Sept. 24. The central bank is closely watching inflation, which remains stubbornly high, as well as the labor market. Governor Bullock has said she has no plans to lower the cash rate from its current 4.35% for the next six months. The RBA has stuck to its “higher for longer” stance and has maintained rates since November. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to lower rates on September 18, with a 70% likelihood of a quarter-point cut and a 31% likelihood of a half-point cut. Ahead of the meeting is a crucial employment report on Friday. The previous jobs report was much weaker than expected and triggered a meltdown in the financial markets. Another weak jobs report would raise the likelihood of a half-point cut, while a solid release will cement a quarter-point cut. AUD/USD has pushed below support at 0.6780 and is testing support at 0.6737. Below, there is support at 0.6708 0.6809 and 0.6852 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
AUD/USD – Australian retail sales flat, Aussie shrugsThe Australian dollar continues to have a quiet week. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6804 in the European session, up 0.09% today at the time of writing. Consumer spending in Australia has been weak, which has chilled economic activity. Retail sales for July didn’t provide any relief with a reading of zero, shy of the market estimate of 0.3% and well off the June gain of 0.5%. Consumers continue to feel squeezed by elevated interest rates and the high cost of living. The weak economy and a cooling labor market are making consumers even more cautious about discretionary spending. Will today’s soft data prod the Reserve Bank of Australia to consider a rate cut? The RBA is frustrated with the slow decline in inflation - Governor Bullock has said that the central bank is unlikely to cut for six months and RBA members have been discussing a possible rate hike at recent meetings. The markets are marching to a different tune and have priced in a rate cut in November with more cuts early next year. The remaining tier-1 events ahead of the Sept. 24 policy meeting are GDP and the employment report and both releases will be important factors in the rate decision. If these numbers are weaker than supported, it would support the case for a rate cut before year’s end. The week wraps up with the US Core PCE Price index, considered the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator. The markets are expecting a small increase in July – from 2.5% to 2.6% y/y and 0.1% to 0.2% m/m. A small move is unlikely to concern the Fed, which has shifted its focus to the weakening labor market now that the battle with inflation is largely over. AUD/USD is testing resistance at 0.6808. Above, there is resistance at 0.6822 0.6776 and 0.6754 are providing support
by OANDA
Australian CPI falls but markets not impressedThe Australian dollar continues to have a quiet week. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6796 in the European session, up 0.06% on the day at the time of writing. Australia’s inflation rate continued to decelerate in July, although the markets were hoping for more. CPI rose 3.5%, down from 3.8% in June but above the market estimate of 3.4%. This was the lowest figure since March but much of the decline was driven by electricity rebates which artificially lowered electricity prices. Core inflation eased but goods inflation remained flat. The markets weren’t impressed with the inflation data and the odds of a rate cut in November fell to 48%, down from 58% prior to the inflation release. The markets are more dovish than the Reserve Bank of Australia, which has discussed raising rates at recent meetings. The central bank is not satisfied with the pace of underlying inflation and has projected that it won’t return to the target band of 2% to 3% until the end of 2025. Governor Bullock has said that the Bank has no plans to cut for at least six months, but the markets are betting that the RBA won’t stay on the sidelines while the Fed and other major central banks are lowering rates. The financial markets are hanging onto every word from FOMC members and we’ll hear from members Christopher Waller later today and Rafael Bostic early on Thursday. As well, the US releases second estimate GDP for the second quarter on Thursday. The initial estimate showed the economy powering ahead with a 2.8% gain, double the 1.4% pace in Q1. The second estimate is expected to confirm the initial reading and confirm that the economy remains in solid shape, despite concerns about a weak employment labor which led to a market meltdown earlier this month. AUD/USD is testing support at 0.6784. Below, there is support at 0.6771 0.6805 and 0.6818 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
Is SP500 strike to cover crisisDear All, This is SP500 to GDP Ratio chart which is show us maybe we should ready for another crisis. If you compare this chart to Will500PR to GDP Ratio I have published before you can clearly see negative bearish divergence between these two that means total public traded shares do not touched higher top but SP500 index reaches higher rates; So its obvious to see a sharp shrinkage as soon as possible. See if FED can cover it by soft landing or not?
SP:SPXShort
by AtareumFX
GBP/USD extends gains as retail sales bounce backThe British pound has extended its gains on Friday. GBP/USD is trading at 1.2887 in the European session, up 0.31% on the day at the time of writing. It has been a winning week for the pound, which has climbed 1%. There was more good news from the UK economy as retail sales rebounded in July by 0.5% m/m, after a revised decline of 0.9% in June and in line with the market estimate. Annually, GDP surged 1.4%, compared to -0.8% in June and matching the market estimate. The pound has moved higher in response to the positive retail sales data. The bounce in retail sales reflects summer discounts and purchases related to the Euro 2024 and the Paris Olympics, such as apparel. As well, with inflation finally under control and running close to 2%, consumers are responding by opening up their wallets and purses. The positive retail sales report follows yesterday’s solid GDP release. The UK economy recorded rose 0.6% in Q2, a second straight quarter of growth. The economy is showing some strength in the second quarter but that may not have much effect on the Bank of England’s rate path. The increase in growth may not be sustainable and BoE policy makers have said that they are more focused on inflation, particularly service inflation, which remains much higher than the BoE’s 2% target. The markets are expecting further cutting before the end of the year and have priced in a rate reduction at the November meeting. GBP/USD is testing resistance at 1.2884. Above, there is resistance at 1.2914 1.2841 and 1.2811 are the next support levels
by OANDA
Euro-Zone GDP Quarterly *3M (QoQ)ECONOMICS:EUGDPQQ (+0.3 %) Q1/2024 source: EUROSTAT The Eurozone’s economy expanded by 0.3% in the first quarter of 2024, the fastest growth rate since the third quarter of 2022, to beat market expectations of a marginal 0.1% expansion and gain traction following muted readings since the fourth quarter of 2022. The result added leeway for the European Central Bank to refrain from cutting rates to a larger extent this year should inflationary pressures prove to be more stubborn than previously expected. Among the currency bloc’s largest economies, both the German and the French GDPs expanded by 0.2%, while that from Italy grew by 0.3% and that from Spain expanded by 0.7%, all above market estimates. Compared to the same quarter of the previous year ECONOMICS:EUGDPYY , the Eurozone’s GDP grew by 0.4%, beating market expectations of 0.2%, and gaining traction after two straight quarters of 0.1% growth.
ECONOMICS:EUGDPQQ
by Mr_J__fx
240729 Weekly OutlookThe following week have major data release including, 240730 Tue CB Consumer Confidence **** 240731 Wed Fed Interest Rate Decision ***** 240801 Thu Initial Jobless Claims **** 240801 Fri Nonfarm Payrolls ***** Unemployment Rate ***** Consumer Confidence is the major leading indicator alongside Michigan Consumer index. Investors should follow the rise of two indexes to lead increase in economic data like inflation, GDP, labor market conditions, as well as economic conditions. Fed rate is expected to remain unchanged, while market discounting the first cut in the cycle to come in September. Labor market show resilience all the way that give space to maintain higher rates in this cycle for longer. Even the first rate cute is forecasted for September, I would still expect the higher rates to stay here for longer period due to resilient labor market, as shown by labor market indicators. There are no signs for S&P to weaken this time, rather shuttle up and down at high levels. Note that last adjustment in S&P followed the deviation of 12% from major trend line 200SMA. Attentive investors could observe it previously. When the market finally digest selling orders, S&P should resume the rising trend.
AMEX:VOO
by moncap2023
USD/JPY – Yen on a tear, US GDP blows past forecast The Japanese yen continues to gain ground against the US dollar. USD/JPY is trading at 153.68 early in the North American session, down 0.14% on the day. Earlier today, USD/JPY fell as low as 151.93 (1.3%), its lowest level since May 3, before paring most of these losses. The yen has soared, rising 2.4% this week and a staggering 4.5% in the month of July. There’s plenty of buzz but also uncertainty in the air as the yen has gone on a torrid run against the hapless US dollar. The yen jumped 1.1% on Wednesday after a senior Japanese official urged the Bank of Japan to normalize policy. As well, the sharp drop in global tech stocks sent investors fleeing to traditional safe havens, including the Japanese yen. The Bank of Japan meets on July 30-31 and it’s a close call as to whether it will stay on the sidelines or raise interest rates. The central bank is also expected to announce details of a plan to cut bond purchases in order to reduce its massive monetary stimulus. The BoJ has hinted that a rate hike is coming, but the question of timing is up in the air. Core inflation rose to 2.6% in June and wages have climbed sharply, setting up the case for the central bank to raise rates. On the other side of the coin, consumer spending has been weak and inflation is relatively moderate. The US economy climbed 2.8% y/y in the second quarter, double the 1.4% rate in the first quarter and blowing past the forecast of 2.0%. An increase in consumer spending helped drive the strong gain. On the inflation front, the personal consumption expenditures price index, a key measure for the Federal Reserve, eased to 2.6%, down from 3.4% in Q1. USD/JPY tested support at 152.68 earlier. Below, there is support at 151.45 There is resistance at 154.33 and 155.56
by fisherkj4
Hang Seng Slips after New Disappointing Chinese DataLast week’s soft CPI report showed that China has not escaped deflationary pressures and today’s data reaffirmed the weak consumer demand environment, as retail sales rose just 2% y/y in June and the worst print since late-2022. Adding to the woes, the economy grew by 4.7% y/y in Q2 and the slowest pace in more than a year. HKG33 slips after the new disappointing data and remains in peril of breaching the ascending trend line from the 2024 lows and the 50% Fibonacci of the advance from that low (at around 17,200). That could open the door to further losses towards 16,000, but we are cautious around such moves. This week’s new disappointing releases may aggravate concerns around the economy, but also raise the chances of more stimulus by Beijing just as the Third Plenum kicks off, where officials will have the chance to discuss supportive measures. HKG33 can find renewed support as a result and last week it managed to gain ground, overcoming the poor inflation report. Although the upside remains unfriendly, the index tries to hold the initiative about the EMA200 (black line) that keeps it on track for 18,736, but sustained advance towards this year’s peak 19,794 does not look easy. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website: Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
FX:HKG33
by FXCM
GBP/USD hits 4-month high on strong GDPThe British pound has extended its gains on Thursday. GBP/USD is trading at 1.2876 in the European session, up 0.22% on the day. The sun is shining in London today and there’s plenty to smile about besides the pleasant weather. England has punched their ticket to the final of the Euro football tournament and UK GDP was stronger than expected. The British pound headed higher and has hit its highest level since March 8. The UK economy is showing signs of a rebound after slipping into a recession in the second half of 2023. Annualized GDP jumped 1.4% in May, up from a revised 0.6% in April and beating the 1.2% market estimate. Monthly, GDP improved to 0.4% after zero growth in April and above the market estimate of 0.2%. The weather has played a significant role in the improved data. April was unusually rainy, which dampened consumer spending. May, however, was the warmest on record which revitalized retail sales. Inflation has declined dramatically, from 11.1% in October 2022 down to 2% in May, matching the Bank of England’s inflation target. This has raised expectations that the BoE will deliver a rate cut but the central bank remains cautious. The BoE meets next on August 1 and markets expectations are a 50/50 coin toss as to whether the Bank will hold or take the plunge and lower rates. In the US, Federal Reserve Chair Powell wrapped up two days of testimony before US lawmakers. Powell signaled that the Fed was moving closer to a rate cut decision but it was too early to declare victory over inflation and said “more good data” was needed before the Fed would feel confident lowering rates. GBP/USD is testing resistance at 1.2872. Above, there is resistance at 1.2897 1.2825 and 1.2800 are the next support levels
by OANDA
NZD edges lower ahead of RBNZ decisionThe New Zealand dollar is steady on Tuesday. NZD/USD is trading at 0.6115, down 0.16% in the European session at the time of writing. The New Zealand dollar looked sharp last week against the slumping US dollar, climbing 0.88%. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to hold its cash rate at 5.50% for an eighth straight time when its meets early on Wednesday. The RBNZ has been unwilling to shift away from its ‘higher for longer’ stance, despite the worsening economic downturn. The services and manufacturing sectors are both showing contraction and consumer and business confidence has been weak. The economy posted annual growth of only 0.3% in the first quarter after two quarters of contraction, which is a technical recession. The weak New Zealand economy badly needs a rate cut to kick-start growth, but the RBNZ’s first priority is to bring inflation back down to the target band of 1% to 3%, preferably around the 2% midpoint. Inflation eased from 4.7% to 4.0% in the first quarter but this is still above the target band. What can we expect from the central bank? With a rate hold widely expected at Wednesday’s meeting, the focus will be on the tone of the rate statement. At the previous meeting in May, the RBNZ projected that it wouldn’t lower rates until the third quarter of 2025 and the economy may have worsened since then, which could delay a rate cut even further. I expect that the message from Wednesday’s meeting is that rates will not drop before the inflation picture improves and the RBNZ could warn that rate hikes remain on the table. NZD/USD is testing support at 0.6114. Below, there is support at 0.6079 0.6180 and 0.6215 are the next lines of resistance
by OANDA
Euro eyes French inflationThe euro has gained ground on Thursday. EUR/USD is trading at 1.0707, up 0.26% on the day. The euro has stayed close to the 1.07 line for much of the week as it looks for direction. The eurozone releases the June inflation report next week. The French inflation release, which will be released on Friday, could be a precursor for the eurozone release. French inflation is expected to rise to 2.5% y/y, up from 2.3% in April. Monthly, CPI is expected to tick up to 0.1%, up from 0% in May. The European Central Bank will be hoping that inflation moves lower towards the 2% target. The ECB cut interest rates earlier this month and another rate cut will largely depend on the direction that inflation takes. Policy makers have long been concerned about an inflation rebound following a rate cut and an increase in eurozone inflation next week would dampen hopes of another rate cut in the near term. The ECB meets next on July 18th. It has been a relatively quiet week for the euro but that could change on the weekend, as French voters go to the polls in the first round of a parliamentary vote. French President Macron called the snap elections after the extreme right made sharp gains in the recent European Parliamentary elections. Macron is hoping to mobilize the center, but if his plan backfires and the extreme right gains ground, it will trigger uncertainty in France and the financial markets and the euro would likely take a tumble. The election drama could mean volatility from the euro on Monday. In the US, Final (third estimate) GDP posted a gain of 1.4% q/q, as expected. This was slightly higher than the 1.3% gain in the second estimate. The US economy has slowed down significantly in the first quarter, after a strong gain of 3.4% in the fourth quarter of 2023. Still, the Fed is yet to cut rates due to unexpectedly high inflation. EUR/USD is testing resistance at 1.0710. Above, there is resistance at 1.0740 1.0688 and 1.0658 are providing support
by OANDA
GBP/USD dips as UK growth stallsThe British pound has lost ground on Thursday. GBP/USD is trading at 1.2760 in the North American session at the time of writing, down 0.29% on the day. The UK economy showed no growth in April, which was in line with expectations but below the March reading of 0.4% m/m. This was the weakest reading in four months, as manufacturing and construction declined, offsetting the rise in services. Yearly, GDP rose 0.6% in April, down from 0.7% in May and in line with expectations. April showers dampened consumer spending as the UK economy continues to struggle. With a national election taking place on July 4th, politicians will be monitoring and making use of every economic release. The ruling Conservatives are trailing badly in the polls and today’s weak GDP could well be another nail in the coffin for the Conservatives. The Bank of England meets next week but there is little chance a rate cut in the middle of an election campaign. The markets have priced in an initial rate cut in September, although an August cut is a possibility, when the BoE releases quarterly growth and inflation forecasts. The advantage of waiting till September is that the Fed may cut at its September meeting, which is a day before the BoE meets. If the Fed does trim rates, then a BoE cut would not have as much negative impact on the British pound. In the US, May inflation decelerated. The headline figure fell from 3.4% y/y to 3.3% and the core rate dropped from 3.6% to 3.4%. The Federal Reserve held the benchmark rate, as expected, but noted that inflation was moving closer to the 2% target. The Fed remains cautious and has signaled just one rate cut before the end of the year. The probability of a quarter-point cut in September is 61%, according to CME’s FedWatch. GBP/USD is testing support at 1.2796. Below, there is support at 1.2733 1.2862 and 1.2925 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
GBP/USD shrugs as UK unemployment rises, GDP nextThe British pound is drifting on Tuesday. GBP/USD is trading at 1.2720 in the European session at the time of writing, down 0.08% on the day. The UK released the May employment report earlier today. Next up is GDP on Wednesday, with a market estimate of 0% m/m for April, following a 0.4% gain in March. Today’s UK employment report indicated that the labor market continues to cool down, with a notable rise in unemployment. Claimants for unemployment benefits jumped by 50.4 thousand in May, up sharply from a revised 8.4 thousand increase in April and higher than the market estimate of 10.2 thousand. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4% in the three months to April, up from 4.3% in the previous period and the market estimate of 4.3%. Job growth continued to slow, falling by 139,000. Wage growth in the private sector, a key gauge for the central bank, fell to 5.8%, its lowest level since mid-2022. The drop in wage growth was impressive as the government hiked the minimum wage by 9.8% in April and there were concerns that sharp increase would send wage growth higher. The job numbers will be a relief for the Bank of England, which needs to see a weaker labor market in order to start lowering rates. There won’t be a rate cut at the next meeting in June due to the national election on July 4th. The markets have fully priced a quarter-point cut by November and the employment report has raised the likelihood of a second cut before the end of the year to 40%, up from 20% on Monday, prior to the employment report. During the election campaign, BoE policy makers have cancelled all speeches and public appearances, which means there won’t be any feedback from the BoE about today’s inflation report and other key data over the next several weeks. GBP/USD is putting pressure on resistance at 1.2745. Above, there is resistance at 1.2795 1.2671 and 1.2621 are providing support
by OANDA