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Goldaholics Anonymous Pour yourself a glass of Goldschläger and let's review the 12 steps before diving into this. 1. We admitted that we were powerless over the Fed -- that our balance sheet had become unmanageable. 2. Came to believe that a Power greater than our central bank could restore us to solvency. 3. Made a decision to turn our fiat over to the care of sound money, as we understood it. 4. Made a searching and fearless inventory of our finances. 5. Admitted to Peter Schiff, Lyn Alden, and Pomp the exact nature of our wrongs. 6. Were entirely ready to have big, fat Gains. 7. Humbly asked to avoid getting short squeezed. 8. Made a list of all the naysayers about to be harmed. 9. Sent direct messages to them to gloat in victory. 10. Continued to count our gains and polish our bullion. 11. Sought through fundamental and technical analysis to improve our entries and exits. 12. Having had a financial awakening as the result of these steps, we tried to carry this message to other goldaholics, and practice these principles in all of our trades. Macro Fibonacci Below we can see the magic of Fibonacci extensions, measuring the last macro bull run to the 2016 low. Zooming in a bit, it is clear that these levels attract attention. Each one of these fibs acts as a step in the staircase. All we need to do is look at volume and price action to validate each level. The smart money had their sell orders at the 0.618 Fibonacci extension. The 0.5 could not hold which indicates that the next level down will be tested. Watch for heavy volume to come in there near the 0.382 level. In the U.S. stock market and many other developed financial markets, about 70-80 percent of overall trading volume is generated through algorithmic trading. Historical Price Action Looking back to the last bull run there are a few simple patterns to watch for... 1. Weekly MACD flailing around above the zero level. 2. Mark the down trends and wait for the break. 3. Price action is above the 20 Week EMA. Trading Setup Using historical price action the trading setup becomes clear... 1. Weekly MACD is flailing above the zero level. 2. The down trend line is clear. Wait for the break. 3. Wait for 20 Week EMA support. Now, the targets are the Fibonacci levels above, and the ghost bars look reasonable, however, it would be wise to take a look at what exactly is driving Gold on this path. The U.S. Dollar The Dollar index inversely pressures Gold prices so this is worth noting. 1. Momentum is shifting bullish as a bullish MACD divergence reveals itself on the daily chart. 2. This recent move was the 3rd wave down which often precedes a reversal. 3. The index is at the bottom of this future channel. As this index recovers back towards the 200 Week EMA, it will surely scare the metals market. However, the macro downtrend is only on it's first wave down. From a technical standpoint, the second wave is often the deepest as panic sets in from the failed recovery. Treasury Yields Yields recently had a similar bullish MACD divergence with a very weak recovery that followed. The trend is still clear and it's highly likely to roll over as it timidly approaches the trendline in the coming months. Gold has been riding along side Bonds so this should continue to drive up prices. Depending on the severity of falling yields, it could trigger temporary crashes in the metals. But longer term, buying the dips is the way to go. Trading is risky. Don't do it. Long Bullion: Gold, Silver, Platinum Equities: GDX, PHYS, CEF, SLV, RIO, SPPP Futures: (Not yet)
TVC:GOLDLong
by trade-God
4
Gold and Sentiment, Turbo Bear?My favorite ratio for cutting through the noise is an LT view of Gold/Oz($) : HUI (the Gold Bugs Index). Generally when it rises we gold bugs suffer because the price isn't reflecting our buying habits. That's why I'm looking for the next bottom on this chart sometime in July that might coincide with this broadening wedge... A date that keeps recurring for me is June 28th, and I haven't figured why just yet.. The broadening wedge may indicate that some dramatic downside is very possible, I just hope that it's in late summer after some profit-taking. Reasons for hope here: 1] a breakdown from this channel is giving me hope, as sentiment is outstripping gold price performance. 2] it seems to coincide with deep retrace and ultimately a break below the 100Mo MA, the 30Wk Ma, and 30D Ma are firmly below. (Looking for the 30D to cross below 30Wk for TURBO BEAR) 3] downward cloud pressure is huge and respected at this time See my previous post on GDX/Gold for another view at this pivotal time
TVC:GOLD
by ptero1492
Gold: We have entered a bear cycle.This long-term chart of GLD reveals that we have entered the next bearish cycle for the Gold market. This cycle of the Gold market peaked a couple of months ago and seems to be following the same trend from the last cycle. In fact, if we use the fib-retracement tool to plot the pullback from the first pulldown from the peak, we can see that GLD has bounced up and found minor support on the 100% fib trend retracement line. We can now expect a rise to the 61.8%-38.2% levels before falling down from there again. Be careful shorting puts or going long in those levels as we may never see another ATH for months if not years. Trade Idea: Short GLD around $171-$180. While it is unlikely for it to keep rising higher to new ATHs anytime soon, you can set stop-losses above at a comfortable level while leaving enough wiggle room. We can expect GLD and Gold to continue to fall from those $175 levels down below the $156 fib support, and then the 148 support area. Once the price breaks those levels, we can expect a high-velocity waterfall sell-off to the $136 support area, where we can also take some profits on the way. The key support area and the final price target is the parallel channel support around $107.5-$115, which we can expect to see in anywhere from 9 months to 5 years.
AMEX:GLDShort
by punitarani
GDX, is this a forgotten treasure?Hello everyone, So Gold is finally back in a buy/accumulation zone, even though DXY may have more room to run I doubt this will translate in to heavy downside for gold. 1650 maybe? However, the stars look alligned once again to buy gold, or in this case GDX (Gold miners ETF). You can see the trade parameters in the chart. But this is definetely an opportunity like no other, whilst everyone is still lookin at Bitcoin, or Stocks, nobody is expecting a resurgence from gold at this point. However as we see volatility is not dead and gold does like volatile times. Even though this trade will take patience, and most likely won't payoff like crypto. The optimal upside is around a 150%, and in a mania case 400-600%. And the risk is -25%, I mean, it's a casual day in crypto or even stocks these days... Buying now is like buying BTC at 10k. Which BTW i've also advised in doing heavily. It's the same mantra as always - Buy low, sell high. However, most will do it the other way around. Also check out my other ideas, even though I don't post often. When I do it's usually when things are CHEAP or EXPENSIVE. As always, stay safe and stay liquid.
AMEX:GDXLong
by MedianLineAnalysis
GOLD NEXT WEEK #09Weekly Forecast Topics: 00:00-02:42: Market sentiment, bond selling, lack of confidence in U.S. Gov. starting to show. Brief Summary of week 08. 02:43-06:18: Price Action forecast = targets. Stock's looking favorable and which one's to chose? 06:19-07:25: I'll answer questions, Share some of my own stock pick's etc. About Gold Next Week # A weekly 3-10-minute forecast video on Gold price for the coming week. I'll also follow up with charts throughout the week as price action develops patterns and pivot reversals points. Topics - Market sentiment, Gold Shares, EFT's A-z, $DXY/Dollar and US10Year T-note System: I use a hybrid blend of Wave Principle price action, Fibonacci ratios, RSI indicator and some Market Data. Disclaimer: nothing talked about in this video should be regarded or seen as trade advise, a trade call, a recommendation, or a trade signal. Do your own due diligence or seek advice from a licensed professional before entering a trade. Best Regards OmarDjurhuus
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by UnknownUnicorn212178
3
TOPPING PATTERNS: SPX and the SPY/GDX ratioThese ratios are KEY to understanding the valuation of the marketplace, SPY/GDX being just one of many. Either equities are going to fall, or mining stocks are about to explode. The latter is in my view, exceptionally unlikely, as we see bearish price action in gold across many of the major G20 currencies. IF there is anything that a gold investor should recognize, it's deflationary environments. SO then, what comes next? An important question: Why is it that other asset classes are moving in the reflation trade, but the asset amongst the most sensitive to this environment, is lagging behind the leading commodities? The answer: LIQUIDATION RISK The argument that there are other assets that provide interest or dividends that make them more attractive, or provide some sense of opportunity cost, is a straw man argument. Many of the mining stocks provide dividends at a greater return than that of treasury yields, albeit not as high as those in oil or financials. The concern is that the mining sector has crumbled beyond these opportunity costs in terms of their relative valuations with respect to their competing assets. US Oil and Energy prices , which as of now have been artificially bid up with temporary demand from the Texas grid shutdowns, are among the few things keeping the reflation trade intact. Bond yields and financials are directly correlated to this broadened move in oil. Once the temporary demand retracts from the marketplace, I expect to see a massive deflationary environment come into the market. IF oil reverses, expect to see bond yields and financials to reverse and bleed into other asset classes across the market. Additionally, with the GBP seeing artificial appreciation from the news related to the easiness of BoE's negative interest, the DXY has weakened slightly. This will not last once UST/USB yields breakdown. The market now faces a SEVERAL KEY hurdles in the near term: Maintaining oil prices Maintaining yields Maintaining equity prices Maintaining a slightly weak or sideways Dollar These are the stages where money get's trapped and the demanded liquidity becomes unobtainable. Best of luck.
TVC:SPXShort
by Patrick_Jarvis
6
GOLD -Inverse to BTC Bullrun - Cup & Handle BreakoutGOLD -Inverse to BTC Bullrun - Cup & Handle Breakout w/ BTC Scale Out/GOLD Scale In Target Areas BUYZONE = 1700 - 1650 OR Break Up & Out of Handle OR BTC Hits Resistance at Middle of Current Uptrend (img attached) AND As BTC Approaches Top of Current Uptrend (img attached) ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ This content is for informational, educational and entertainment purposes only. This is not in any way, shape or form financial or trading advice. Good luck, happy trading and stay chill, 2degreez
TVC:GOLDLong
by UnknownUnicorn7216011
1