GDX
GOLD Barrick: Divergence-> left turn? -Divergence of RSI MACD STOCH against the general downward trend, similar to late 2018,
-lows holding, highs descending between 32%and50% RT
-similar to 2018, same as gdx
-ONE dirty dirty DIRTY heart crushing gap from the Spring rebound (not on chart)
I'm like NASCAR, left turns only please.
GDXJ Road to $95-100I just can't see any other outcome on this one. Every single thing on this thing looks bullish AF.
GOLD MINERS GDX bearish tonesPlease see Chart... recent minor failures hint of bearish tones, and technicals are crossing down.
Overall, the equity markets are pushing higher on air and expecting a serious pullback soon, after a surprise trigger.
Gold prices are not moving despite USD weakening... this is bad for Gold, and Gold Miners particularly.
Once the USD jumps, and Gold drops, then the Gold Miners will be in double jeopardy.
I like GDX, but it is reeking of danger right now. I would be very wary IMHO...
XAUUSD: Gold bottomed, buy it...I'll just leave this here, I leave the specifics to you, but I believe the selloff in Gold is over and it is about to resume the yearly timeframe uptrend.
My clients and me are long already, and looking to capitalize on this run since it is likely to outperform stocks together with most commodities going forward.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
GD Headed back up in the near future - go longLooks like a cup & handle are forming on the 1hr timeframe. Handle could lead to a jump up to 1950 in the near future. Dont miss out!
Gold consolidating for a (potential) move to $2500 in early 2021With gold being in consolidation mode for a few months, this is a potential path out of the bull flag and trend it's trading in. I've drawn ideal support backtests with little flushes below to shake out weak hands.
The measured move out of this trend will replicate the move up from our March generation lows, placing the target somewhere in the $2500 range. Inflation will show up in commodities/PMs as we have the regime change in the US and more stimulus packages to aid the economic recovery.
BTD on $GOLD $GLD $GDX $JNUG $GDXUWe got some good news on the Stim bill today but it hasn't passed FR FR yet.
The House and Senate will vote today on a roughly $900 billion pandemic relief package, with the White House saying President Donald Trump would sign it. The deal includes help for small businesses, the jobless and direct payments to most Americans. The bill that lawmakers will vote on will be attached to a $1.4 trillion measure to fund government operations through the end of the fiscal year. As part of the compromise needed to reach agreement, Democrats allowed a provision to be inserted that would prohibit the Federal Reserve from restarting a program supporting corporate bonds and small businesses due to expire Dec. 31. (no more ink/paper for Powell? )
GOLD- i talked about this a while back, I'm overall bullish on Gold/Gold miner because stimulus passed = more inflation = good for GOLD fundamentally.(yea i know, who cares)
$22.20 has been a nice buying opportunity for this company but you could use that area as stoploss as well.
Entry $22.20 area
Target $25.20
Target 2 $28.20
Stoploss 21.20
THE WEEK AHEAD: SLV, GDX, XLE, IWM/RUTWith two shortened market weeks in a row for Christmas and New Year's, I probably won't be doing a ton here, but figured I'd do a post for how exchange-traded funds are looking in the waning weeks of 2020 ... .
EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS ORDERED BY PERCENTAGE THE AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE NEAREST 45 DAYS IS PAYING AS A FUNCTION OF STOCK PRICE:
SLV (32/46/11.9%)
GDX (18/43/11.0%)
XLE (25/42/10.7%)
EWZ (14/40/10.0%)
XBI (21/36/9.1%)
KRE (18/36/9.3%)
I'm currently in small XLE, EWZ, KRE, and GLD positions, but will consider adding on weakness if any comes my way and the implied volatility sticks in there. One thing I don't want to do is to constantly follow high implied volatility, only to find myself grossly overweighted in energy, Brazil, and regional banks, however, so don't want to go too crazy adding in sectors that have been high in the list week in and week out over the past several months.
BROAD MARKET:
IWM (22/29/6.9%)
QQQ (19/26/6.5%)
SPY (13/22/4.9%)
Pictured here is an SPX 50 wide set up to pay at least 10% of the width of the spread, or around 5.00/contract in the expiry nearest 45 days, which would be the February 5th weekly (currently 47 days until expiry). I would ordinarily opt for a higher implied volatility RUT setup, but there currently isn't a February 5th expiry available. You can certainly go with the January 29th (40 days) or the February 19th (59 days), with the preference being to put these on in a down day or days. Smaller account should consider going with SPY or QQQ spreads* with the appropriate combination of of contracts and spread widths commensurate with your account size.
BOND FUNDS:
TLT (1/15/3.5%) (1.609% Yield)
EMB (11/8/2.6%) (4.024% Yield)
HYG (7/10/2.1%) (4.917% Yield)
AGG (29/9/1.9%) (2.252% Yield)
In the IRA, I've been selling HYG short put here of 30 days' duration or so for a credit that is around the monthly dividend. With the December 18th short put having expired worthless, I'll look at adding some in the January 22nd cycle, where the 85 is paying .41 at the mid. As I've pointed out before, the premium in bond funds generally stinks, but I've been using this strategy as a way to deploy buying power that would otherwise be sitting there earning virtually nothing while I await down days or a higher volatility environment.
* -- Unfortunately, NDX isn't as liquid as either SPX or RUT, so I virtually never trade NDX spreads, opting instead for equivalent sizing in the QQQ's (e.g., 5 10-wides).
Get ready for the $SILVER move! $SLVThe Q4 FOMC combined with mid December tax loss selling is a prime time to sneak your way back into the precious metals sector. It has been a great year for metals, and believe it or not the 4 month correction from August to December is perfectly normal and reasonable given history.
(DXY) What Really Is Driving Gold (Yields)There is much speculation across the investor universe about what influences Gold prices and vice versa. Today I will be focusing on the false theory that Gold prices lead treasury yields and that by extension, Gold signals market crashes.
The Financial Solar System
Taking a look at the chart it is clear that sometimes Gold prices parallel and slightly lead treasury yields. However, if we overlay the Dollar index it is astronomically clear that the only times that Gold does this is when the Dollar's gravitational pull temporarily alters Gold's trajectory. Gold prices at the root are inversely corelated with Treasury yields.
It is really that simple. The Treasury market is the Sun while Gold, the Dollar, and the Stock market are planets. As treasury yields ultimately dominate and inversely lead Gold prices, the Dollar acts as a secondary force.
Yields are the only pre-signal for Market crashes and it looks to me like another leg down is imminent. However, it also looks like the dollar is setting up for a relief rally which means Gold would plummet along side stocks before the Sun sling shots it to new highs.
GOLD - Cup and Handle formation. Very Bullish!GOLD - Cup and Handle formation. Very Bullish!
For shorter term, yellow channel range bound. Breakout likely to the upside.
GDX - ready to break out ?GDX is bullish against the last low. Same for GDXJ.
There's no sure thing - you trade what's in front of you.
GOLD 19 YEARS AGOThe GOLD to SPX ratio currently looks similar to 2001. Where were you 19 years ago? I know where I was and I was clearly not buying enough gold! Hindsight is clear.. or should I say 20/20? Seeing as history tends to rhyme, precious metals look like the better deal over the next decade- especially if you hold them in your possession.
Elliott Wave View: GDX Ended Correction and Ready to Resume HighElliott Wave view in $GDX suggests that the Gold Miner Index ended cycle from March low in wave ((2)) at 33.16. The Index has turned higher again in wave ((3)) with the internal unfolding as an impulse Elliott Wave structure. Gold Miners still need to break above previous wave ((1)) high on August 5 at 45.78 to avoid a double correction. Up from wave ((2)) low at 33.16, wave ((i)) ended at 34.5 and wave ((ii)) pullback ended at 33.35. Gold Miners then extended higher again in wave ((iii)) towards 36.07, and pullback in wave ((iv)) ended at 35.7. Final leg higher in wave ((v)) ended at 36.4 and this completed wave 1 in higher degree.
The Index then corrected cycle from November 24 low and ended wave 2 at 34.87. Internal of wave 2 unfolded as a double three structure where wave ((w)) ended at 35.23, wave ((x)) ended at 35.81, and wave ((y)) ended at 34.87. Up from wave 2 low, wave ((i)) ended at 36.92. Expect wave ((ii)) pullback to stay above wave 2 at 34.87, but more importantly above 33.16. As far as pivot at 33.16 low stays intact, expect dips to find support in 3, 7, or 11 swing for more upside. Potential short term target higher is 100% – 123.6% Fibonacci extension from November 24 low at 38.09 – 38.86.
THE WEEK AHEAD: GDXJ/GDX, XLE, KRE, SLV, IWM/RUTEARNINGS:
No options liquid underlyings announcing earnings this week that meet my criteria for a volatility contraction play, although ORCL (24/31) and WORK (2/33) both announce and could be played in some other way.
EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS RANKED BY THE PERCENTAGE THE JANUARY AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE IS PAYING AS A FUNCTION OF STOCK PRICE:
GDXJ (14/41/12.1%)
XLE (25/41/10.4%)
KRE (23/40/10.6%)
SLV (28/41/10.2%)
GDX (15/38/10.2%)
EWZ (15/39/10.0%)
BROAD MARKET EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS RANKED BY THE PERCENTAGE THE JANUARY AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE IS PAYING AS A FUNCTION OF STOCK PRICE:
IWM (23/28/7.1%)
QQQ (20/27/6.3%)
DIA (15/21/5.2%)
SPY (12/20/4.8%)
EFA (17/24/4.4%)
Pictured here is a RUT January 22nd 1655/1705 short put vertical with the short option leg camped out at the 16 delta. Markets are showing wide in the off hours, but look to get at least 10% of the width of the spread out of any play, with the preference being to put something on in a down day with the accompanying rise in volatility and expansion of the "probability cone." A smaller alternative would naturally be in IWM, where I'd look to get at least .50 out of January 22nd 162.5/167.5 5-wide.
For those who like to swim naked, the IWM January 22nd 162.5 (15 delta) and was paying 1.91 as of Friday close (1.15% ROC at max as a function of notional risk; 8.93% annualized).
* * *
On the IRA/retirement account front, I'll be looking to programmatically deploy buying power in broad market over medium to long-term time frames over the next several weeks and then turn to focusing on shorter term plays, so you're likely to see some apparently oddball things in my ideas feed that won't make a ton of sense looked at in isolation and won't be for everybody not only due to buying power effect, but due to duration. I'm using SPY here, but one can certainly do something similar in another of the cheaper (a relative term) exchange-traded funds with high liquidity that will allow you to ladder out in time without giving up too much to lack of liquidity in longer duration.
Essentially, it will look like a short put ladder, but with the rungs put on over time in increasing duration in similarly delta'd strikes or in strikes which pay a certain ROC %-age relative to the strike price (e.g., the SPY February 19th 321 short put, paying 3.27; the March 19th 300 short put, paying 3.02; the April 16th 283, paying 2.87, etc.), after which the individual rungs will be separately managed.
Although this isn't particularly buying power efficient relative to defined risk spreads, I'm shooting for a setup that is relatively set and forget running into retirement where I don't necessarily have to pop my portfolio open on a daily (or even weekly) basis to manage trades, but can go for fairly lengthy periods of time without having to touch or manage rungs and with modest expectations as to ROC %-age.
As a "quasi-cash" option, I'll also continue to deploy idle buying power in things like HYG puts (See Post Below) just that I'm not earning 0% of 0 and where I'm comfortable taking on shares and selling call against. Point in fact, that is probably not a bad stand-alone setup for an extremely conservative investor who isn't keen on taking broad market bullish assumption positions at all-time-highs where a number of people are calling "bubble" week after week. That being said, even this type of setup isn't riskless, as we saw in the March "sell everything" dip. At some point, you will potentially have to take on shares ... .
