GDX
Confluence abound, expecting a bounce-Daily 200 SMA/EMA
-Bottom of primary trend channel
-Fib 1.618 of lower Distribution (or Reaccumulation) phase
-2012-2013 triple top (previous bull market top if you discount the initial blow off top)
-Fib 1.272 extension of BC to AR Distribution (or Reaccumulation ) phase
-Supply zone at ~1800
-Lowest 4Hr RSI since Aug-2018 (Wyckoff spring and start of current bull market)
-Bottom of Fall season channel
-1800 nice round number
I'm expecting a bounce or a bottom here...
Everything Update 11.20.20Taking a look at the weekly progress of multiple correlated markets and updated price targets: Bitcoin, Gold, Silver, USD, S&P500
Bitcoin
Excluding the March mayhem deviation in price, weeks ago there were hints of a parabolic trend starting to develop.
The breakout of a macro downtrend and weekly candle close above it was the buy signal.
Using macro fibonacci extensions I'm still anticipating a relentless squeeze with occasional dips to the longer term target of about $33,700, and will be watching for volume to start trending up.
US Dollar
Weeks ago it appeared a consolidation pattern was forming and momentum was to the downside.
I am still projecting one more leg down followed by a swift rebound up to the 200 week E M A. Eventually rolling back over to the longer term target below.
Gold
Not much changed with gold this week. Looks like a base is still building at the previous all time high levels.
Using macro fibonacci extensions, the intermediate term target is still $2300ish.
Next buy signal for Gold is a break out of the downtrend with the daily MACD above zero.
Silver
Weeks ago a consolidation pattern was forming.
Now that pattern has been validated and a breakout is imminent. Target $35ish.
Using the macro fibonacci extensions the longer term target looks to be around $58 or even $86.
SandP 500
Lots of speculation of a crash here. My thoughts are that reality lies somewhere in the middle and money will flow into the SandP stocks that have not fully recovered yet. I'm looking to buy short term dips, especially near the grey bars where heavy volume came in previously. If the dollar continues it's descent into the abyss then the SandP, along with all the aforementioned markets, will surely go up, up, and away.
Trading is risky. Don't do it and don't listen to me.
Long
Crypto: BTC, ETH
Gold: MGCG21, PHYS, GDX, other mining stocks
Silver: SLV, CEF
Other Equities: Oil/Gas stocks, TCEHY, BABA, and others
Elliott Wave View: GDX Correction Remains in ProgressElliott Wave view in Gold Miners (GDX) suggests the Index is correcting the cycle from March 16, 2020 low. The correction is unfolding as a double three Elliott Wave Structure. In the 60 minutes chart below, we can see wave (X) of this double three ended at $42.05. The Miners have turned lower in wave (Y).
The internal of wave (Y) is unfolding as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave (X) high at $42.05, wave ((i)) ended at $38.03, and bounce in wave ((ii)) ended at $39.24. Index resumes lower in wave ((iii)) towards $37.52, wave ((iv)) ended at $37.87, and wave ((v)) ended at $36.73. This ended wave A of (Y) in higher degree.
Index then bounced in wave B which ended at $38.42. Internal structure of wave B unfolded as a zigzag where wave ((a)) ended at $38.08, wave ((b)) ended at $37.39, and wave ((c)) ended at $38.42. The Gold Miners have extended lower in wave C. Down from wave B high at $38.42, wave ((i)) ended at $37.83 and wave ((ii)) ended at $38.29. Expect a few more lows in the Index to end wave C of (Y) before GDX finds support. A potential support area is 100% – 123.6% Fibonacci extension from August 5, 2020 high which comes at $31.05 – $33.10.
Bitcoin and Everything ElseUpdates
US Dollar
Old trendline is still in play and might lead to more chop sideways, possibly forming a pennant.
The dark blue 200 week EMA is likely as far as it goes if it breaks out.
Keep in mind this dollar index is more about the Euro and Yen rather than the actual broad dollar index which is still where it was in the beginning of the year. fred.stlouisfed.org
Although this index does affect Bitcoin and Gold, the dominant trend is dictated by what banks are doing in the Bond market so I wouldn't worry too much about the dollar.
Treasury Bonds
Banks are hoarding bonds right now for a reason. That reason is the Fed's impotence in controlling the dollar and the economy.
We can see this buying started in November 2018 and if it continues, this suggests big problems on the macro economic level.
If you would like to take the red pill: www.youtube.com
Gold
Gold's run also began in November 2018 for the same reasons. When the MACD on the daily chart moves above zero I'll be buying more. Targets are still the macro fib extension levels.
Nasdaq, S&P 500
The MACD is pretty self-explanatory.
Oil
Only once prices close above that 50 week EMA on whatever catalyst will there be a decent long trade up to the 200 week EMA. Other than that I'd stick with short term trades on the 1 hour chart.
Natural Gas
Breaking into a new range between $2.75 and $4.20
The most highest and most relevant volume markers determine the most likely bottom and top. Should be an interesting year.
Trading is risky, don't do it.
Gold and the next leg upGold looks like it's about to make a new leg higher but will it also drop 5-7% first? The dollar and gold tend to create very distinctive price cycles if you know how to look for them. Renko helps to see these price cycles and time seems irrelevant to them. I am seeing a cycle low in the works now but I'm not sure if it's complete yet. I will venture to say it's going to drop down into the 1700's before the next leg up but I'm not sure if we'll get that lucky. See my forecast on GDX (gold miners) and how this analysis could agree with that one. Smart money likes to flush the boys out so I am just expecting a wild ride here soon.
Goldaholics AnonymousGold is zooming.
Why?
The DXY.
As we can see on the monthly DXY chart, the developing pattern parallels history.
1. It bounced off the 200 EMA
2. It broke trend, retested, and failed
3. It collapsed
The RSI and MACD are weak
What happened to Gold last time DXY collapsed?
Trading Signals
Buy Signal: Weekly RSI lows
Sell Signal: Weekly RSI highs
See previous posts for fibonacci extension targets.
Long MGC futures Feb(G)2021
Trading is risky and should not be attempted, ever.