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GDX

THE WEEK AHEAD: ADBE, ORCL EARNINGS; GDX/GDXJ, USO/XOP/XLE, EWZEARNINGS: ADBE (89/65) and ORCL (77/60) both announce earnings on Thursday after market close and have the metrics I look for in earnings-related volatility contraction plays (>70% rank; >50% 30-day implied). Pictured here: a short strangle paying 11.65 at the mid price camped out around the 16 delta. Its defined risk counterpart: the 265/275/395/405 ten-wide iron condor pays 2.46. Off hours markets are showing wide, so look to price setups out during the regular session. The delta neutral ORCL April 17th 40/55 short strangle pays 1.45. EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS WITH EXPIRY IN WHICH THE AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE PAYS >10% OF THE STOCK PRICE: GDX (99/51), April USO (97/66), April GDXJ (96/58), April XLE (97/75), April EWZ (92/52), April XOP (92/51), April TLT (91/41), May EWW (91/48), April XLU (90/43), June SMH (84/56), April FXI (65/33), June BROAD MARKET WITH EXPIRY IN WHICH THE AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE PAYS >10% OF THE STOCK PRICE: EFA (87/37), June QQQ (83/43), April IWM (82/46), May SPY (78/41), May EEM (70/37), June FUTURES: /CL (97/65) /GC (84/25) /SI (70/30) /NG (65/48) /ZS (30/19) /ZC (21/22) /ZW (13/27) VIX/VIX DERIVATIVES: VIX finished the week at 41.94, so it has been a rough ride for shorters who were in plays before this volatility expansion (points to self). The basic watch word is "patience"; volatility will abate at some point in time ... .
NASDAQ:ADBE
by NaughtyPines
Elliott Wave View : GDX Looking to Extend HigherShort term Elliott wave view in GDX ETF suggests the rally from January 14, 2020 low in wave (3) has ended at 31.98 high. The cycle unfolded as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Up from January 14 low, wave ((i)) ended at 28.67 and pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 27.92. The ETF resumed higher in wave ((iii)) which ended at 30.10. After that, wave ((iv)) pullback ended at 29.50 and the final leg wave ((v)) of C ended at 31.98. Currently, the ETF is correcting that cycle in wave (4). The correction is unfolding as a zig-zag. Wave A of (4) has ended at 30.41 and subdivides in lesser degree 5 waves. Wave ((i)) of A ended at 31.10 and wave ((ii)) ended at 31.74. The ETF then continued lower in wave ((iii)), which ended at 30.66. Then, the bounce in wave ((iv)) ended at 31.14. The push lower in wave ((v)) ended at 30.41. From there, the ETF then bounced in wave B, which ended at 31.16. Potential area to end wave C of (4)) is 100% – 161.8% Fibonacci extension from February 24 high which comes at 28.64 – 29.60 area. From this area, GDX can then extend higher or at least bounce in 3 waves.
AMEX:GDX
by Elliottwave-Forecast
THE WEEK AHEAD: SQ EARNINGS; SMH, XOP, GDX, GDXJEARNINGS: SQ (77/59) announces Wednesday after market close and has the volatility metrics I'm looking for out an earnings-related volatility contraction play -- implied in the 70th percentile or greater over the past 52-weeks and 30-day at or greater than 50%. Pictured here is an SQ April 17th 72.5/100 short strangle camped out around the 20 delta paying 3.55 on a buying power effect of 8.37 (42.4%) and delta/theta metrics of .66/7.78. For those high on defined, consider the 65/70/95/100, paying 1.58 (46.2% credit received as a function of buying power effect). EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS ORDERED BY RANK/30-DAY IMPLIED AND SHOWING THE EXPIRY IN WHICH THE AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE IS PAYING >10% OF STOCK PRICE: SMH (73/30), May XLE (63/23), July USO (51/37), April XBI (48/30), June XOP (45/37), May FXI (40/23), August GDX (40/29), May GDXJ (38/33), May EWZ (26/27), June I didn't get an opportunity to do a ton last week beyond take off a few setups in profit, so this is probably an opportunity to build up theta pile in stuff that I don't have plays in currently and to add to stuff via delta under hedge that has experienced an up tick in volatility over the past several days. BROAD-MARKET ORDERED BY RANK/30-DAY IMPLIED AND SHOWING THE EXPIRY IN WHICH THE AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE IS PAYING >10% OF STOCK PRICE: QQQ (59/23), September SPY (43/17), November IWM (42/19), September EEM (37/19), September In spite of the expansion of volatility over the last several days, broad market isn't paying fabulously in shorter duration, so if you're going to play, look to start out small, add small over time, and take profit somewhat aggressively. FUTURES: /GC (70/15) /CL (51/36) /NG (47/39) /ZS (43/19) /ES (42/17) /SI (33/89) /ZW (24/24) /ZC (23/13) VIX/VIX DERIVATIVES: VIX finished the week at 17.08 with the March, April, and May /VX futures contracts trading at 17.05, 17.33, and 17.09 respectively. It's tough to divine what /VX futures traders' thought processes are here, but it looks like they may be focused on the exogenous event of the year -- the expiry around the general elections, where there is a huge term structure "hump" from September (currently trading at 17.75) to October (20.55), with the remainder of the preceding structure being fairly flat in the interim. There is a mere .70 differential between the March contract price and the September one which I regard as unusually flat, which doesn't make for good term structure trades. Naturally, at some point, the term structure may adjust to a more "standard look," but in the mean time, look to add short to VIX derivatives (VXX, UVXY) on pops to VIX > 20% via short call vertical or long put vertical with a break even at or above where the underlying is currently trading and shooting for one-third the width in credit (if a credit spread; don't pay more than 2/3rds the width if a debit spread).
NYSE:SQ
by NaughtyPines
2
Gold miners - laggards in a rallyGold is rallying very hard, and the GDX Gold miners ETF is lagging behind. It is only a matter of time before it catches up, and is already beginning that catch up journey. This morning, it is up 1.5% and launching off, after a higher low bounce off a support region (grey box). Technicals are supportive, as is correlation to Gold prices. The MACD crossed up after consolidation. By next week, it should be breaking out over the trendline, and upside is >15% to target.
AMEX:GDXLong
by Auguraltrader
#gold consolidates in $1630s miners lag min 10% $GDX $NUGT $DUSTIt is uncharacteristic for the miners to lag in this way, usually, it goes the other way around. The explanation is simply that the S&P is near all-time highs and has signaled repeatedly to short the gold mining companies and ETFs. GDX resistance in the $31 region is not likely to hold this time. Gold miners are seeing all-time record profits due to gold reaching new all-time highs in every currency but the US dollar ( XAUUSD ) and Swiss Franc ( XAUCHF .) Most mining costs are incurred in other currencies where gold has been hitting all-time highs repeatedly for many months. Shorting of the miners are will be bad for business as these levels are pierced.
AMEX:GDXLong
by blloyd