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GDX – Turned Bullish on Daily - $32 Price TargetChart Details Price on Daily keeping yellow support. Best entry would be close to yellow support (on pullback). Bullish price action – higher highs and higher lows daily. Gaps to fill up to $37. Conservative price target of $32 to fill first gap. RSI channel is our guide to enter or exit until channel guides are violated. Opinion I had three hedges for market downturn in play, instead of taking specific bearish plays on SPY for example. GDX, SCO, and SPXS have all been good hedges when purchased at correct time (market ATH's with weekly RSI over 80-85) With coronavirus, oil conflicts, Iran, market overpriced, negative interest....yada yada...there are a number of bubbles or events ready to pop. About Me www.moneypatterns.com Options Strategies, Video Technical Analysis, Instant Alerts, Specific Options Order Entry Details, Daily Updates, Equities & Crypto, Weekly Breakdowns, Charting Service, & More in Members Area! Thank you for liking, commenting, throwing up a chart, following, or viewing. I am not a financial advisor. My comments and reviews are based on what I do with my personal accounts and on www.moneypatterns.com
AMEX:GDXLong
by MoneyPatterns
THE WEEK AHEAD: NFLX EARNINGS; XME, GDXJ/GDX, XBI; VIXEARNINGS: NFLX (46/41) (Tuesday After Market Close). The metrics aren't ideal here, with the rank below 70%, the 30-day below 50% and the at-the-money short straddle paying less than 10% of the value of the underlying in the February cycle, but this is the best of the bunch announcing next week in terms of both liquidity and implied volatility. Pictured here is a February cycle 305/385 delta neutral short strangle paying 7.00 with delta/theta metrics of .84/27.72. Alternatively, go defined risk, shooting to collect one-third the width of the wings with a 305/310/380/385 iron condor paying 1.88 with delta/theta of .70/3.48. I will consider going out farther In time to March to get paid, but the trade-off is that any volatility crush gets muted if you do that. That being said, you do get wider break evens for a similarly delta'd short strangle, so get more room to be wrong. For instance, the similarly delta'd March setup is the 295/395 paying 8.13 at the mid price with delta/theta metrics of -.91/18.54, with break evens of 286.87/403.13 versus the shorter duration's 298/392. EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS: ... ordered by rank and showing the month in which the at-the-money short straddle pays greater than 10% of the value of the underlying. I've culled out funds that aren't paying that in 180 days' duration or less, since no one likes to wait that long for their candy. XME (30/21), June GDXJ (17/28), May XBI (12/24), June GDX (11/25), April USO (11/29), April XLE (6/16), July SMH (4/21), May EWZ (3/24), June XOP (2/28), April* I've already got GDX, EWZ, XBI, and XOP on, so may look at getting into some XME, even though there is some overlap with miner holdings, and/or redipping my stick into some SMH, since that pays in a shorter duration. BROAD MARKET: Nothing is paying in <180 day duration .... . FUTURES (EXCLUDING TREASURIES AND CURRENCIES): /NG (39/42) /GC (29/11) /ZC (29/24) /SI (28/18) /CL (23/28) /ES (10/12) /ZW (8/23) Natty is juiced with last week's sell-off, with some understandable trade-related friskiness in the ag complex. Oil's still paying, but only in durations of April or longer. VIX/VIX DERIVATIVES: VIX finished the week levitating a dime above the 12 handle with only the April, May, and June /VX contracts paying greater than 16 (16.05, 16.33, and 16.75, respectively). My general preference for term structure trades is to short only in expiries where the correspondent /VX future is trading above 16 and ordinarily in <90 day duration (e.g., the VIX April 15th 16/18, 87 days 'til expiry, .55 at the mid price with a break even of 16.55 versus the the /VX April contract of 16.05), so would probably only pull the trigger on an April setup. For UVXY and VXX, my short volatility go-to's, I'm patiently waiting for a pop to add and/or to roll what I've got into strength, of which we've had very little. VXX was down 5.67% for the week; UVXY, 8.37%. * -- There isn't an April expiry as of the writing of this post, but January fell off last week, so one will likely be opened and populate this week.
NASDAQ:NFLX
by NaughtyPines
AUD dying a slow death against real moneyXAUAUD - This has to be the most telling of all sorties of all. While everyone continues to pile into trendy tech stocks operating in crowded consumer markets, harbouring astronomical debts, that make no profit, with PE ratios higher then Cheech and Chong. At the same time the unloved boring gold sector with low PE ratio businesses, no debt, free cash flow and cash reserves finally showing signs of life. Gold tells the story of a slowly dying monetary system poised to give the retail investors one last f**k you. Where will you be on the next bank holiday? How did you go broke?..Slowly. Then all at once.
OANDA:XAUAUDLong
by b_goleman
2
GDX – Small Gap Missed Reason for Downtrend?Found a 3 cent gap around $27.87. Easy to miss. We are headed to gap fill, then back up in my opinion. Trade Entry I would look to place hopeful orders in the gap fill, and below the gap fill for overshoot. I am holding 1/31 expiry options. May add to position if we get to the gap fill. Market at ATH’s with GDX gap fills tells me things are ready to flip anytime into pullback/correction. Chart Details All other details other than the gap fill are the same as previous chart. Bullish pennant failed. Price retested recent highs. Current price at $28 has 10% upside to last high around $30. Daily trend did confirm bearish today. Multiple gaps to fill above tells me price wants to go higher. Watching RSI for bounce off support around 43. If we get below 40 RSI, trade is totally off. About Me Thank you for liking, commenting, throwing up a chart, following, or viewing. I am not a financial advisor. My comments and reviews are based on what I do with my personal accounts. Website will be ready for launch mid-January 2020. Thank you for your patience while I try to juggle everything and maintain the same standards. Disclosure - I am long BTCUSD, GBTC. Short term GDX Bullish, SPXS Bullish, CRWD Bullish short term, ZM Bullish, BYND Bullish
AMEX:GDX
by MoneyPatterns
GDX – Bull Pennant Failure Stop reached but still holding Put Credit Spreads. Trade Entry I entered this trade with 1/31 expiry. Although stop was reached, I am happy to either see how this pans out or take the obligation to buy GDX at $27. I can just hold the shares and wait a month. If you think there will be any kind of unrest in the next year, while Gold comes out of a 10yr nap, then GDX at current price is an excellent hedge. Chart Details Bullish pennant failed. Price retested recent highs. Current price at $28 has 10% upside to last high around $30. Daily trend did confirm bearish today. Multiple gaps to fill above tells me price wants to go higher. Watching RSI for bounce off support around 43. If we get below 40 RSI, trade is totally off. About Me Thank you for liking, commenting, throwing up a chart, following, or viewing. I am not a financial advisor. My comments and reviews are based on what I do with my personal accounts. Website will be ready for launch mid-January 2020. Thank you for your patience while I try to juggle everything and maintain the same standards. Disclosure - I am long BTCUSD, GBTC. Short term GDX Bullish, SPXS Bullish, CRWD Bullish short term, ZM Bullish, BYND Bullish
AMEX:GDX
by MoneyPatterns
4
GDX – Pausing Before Resuming BullishTrading active in GDX. Going to gap fills at $37 possible. Trade Entry 1/31 expiry, 27/31 Put Credit Spread. 1/31 Expiry. 29/33 Put Credit Spread. Chart Details GDX currently in Bull Flag breakout. Fractal from pole of Bull Flag is almost identical to current price breakout. Fractal lines up with 0.618 Fib Extension and gap fills. Things confirming in this manner are positive correlation. I see GDX taking a break on Fed Repo day of $35Billion or more. Same as fractal. By next week we are resuming up IMO. About Me Thank you for liking, commenting, throwing up a chart, following, or viewing. I am not a financial advisor. My comments and reviews are based on what I do with my personal accounts. Website will be ready for launch mid-January 2020. Thank you for your patience while I try to juggle everything and maintain the same standards. Disclosure - I am long BTCUSD, GBTC. Short term GDX Bullish, SPXS Bullish, CRWD Bullish short term. Previous GDX Chart
AMEX:GDXLong
by MoneyPatterns
THE WEEK AHEAD: BBBY EARNINGS; XBI, GDX, IWMEARNINGS: BBBY (62/79) announces earnings on Wednesday after market close. Because of its size, I would go short straddle if of a nondirectional bent: the February 21st 16 is paying 3.18 at the mid (.80 at 25% max). Pictured here, however, is a bullish assumption "Wheel of Fortune" at the money short put in the February cycle paying 1.55 (.78 at 50% max). Max is realized on a finish above the short put strike, with profitability being realized on anything above 14.45. From a trade management standpoint, I generally leave these alone until a test of the break even, at which point I sell delta cutting call against in anticipation of being assigned and then work it as a covered call from that point forward. An alternative play: the February 21st 15 monied covered call, 13.92 debit (which is your cost basis in the shares and your break even). The max profit on this is less generous, coming in at the difference between what you paid to put the play on (13.92) and the short call strike at 15 or 1.08 max, but has a higher probability of profit metric. EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS (SHOWING FIRST EXPIRY IN WHICH THE AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE PAYS GREATER THAN 10% OF THE UNDERLYING SHARE PRICE): GLD (46/13), January '21 SLV (40/21), July XBI (40/27), March GDX (39/26), March TLT (38/12), January '22 GDXJ (38/32), May I would personally lean toward the funds paying in shortest duration, which would be either GDX or XBI, with the GDX March 20th 27/32 short strangle paying 1.18, .59 at 50% max, delta/theta -2.63/theta 1.58, and the XBI March 20th 82/105 short strangle paying 2.12, 1.06 at 50% max, delta/theta .65/3.82. BROAD MARKET (SHOWING FIRST EXPIRY IN WHICH THE AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE PAYS GREATER THAN 10% OF THE UNDERLYING SHARE PRICE): EEM (37/18), September QQQ (20/17), September IWM (15/16), August SPY (3/13), September Short duration obviously isn't paying and even August is a long time to wait for your candy (e.g., in IWM), where the IWM 145/183 short strangle is paying 4.77, delta/theta .58/2.60, where 10% max (.48) or 25% max (1.20) might be sufficiently compelling to put on a trade. FUTURES: /GC (46/13) /SI (40/20) /6C (38/6) /NG (27/43) /6A (32/8) VIX/VIX DERIVATIVES: VIX finished the week at 14.02 and term structure trades remain viable in the February, March, and April expiries, where the /VX futures contracts finished trading at 16.70, 16.87, and 17.32, respectively. For all other derivatives, I would continue to wait until VIX print >20 to go short (call me picky).
NASDAQ:BBBY
by NaughtyPines
1
GDX - Bullish PullbackTRADING ACTIVE GDX options 1/31 expiry, 27/31 Put Credit Spread. Adding to position with another spread based on chart. Chart Details Bull flag breakout pattern. Gaussian channel confirms current trend is bullish. Price in consolidation before further upside IMO. Multiple gaps to fill. Market at all time high with any pullback GDX will go higher. Trend dots confirm Daily and Weekly trends both bullish with room to run. Entry Options Today’s Order – 1/31 Expiry. 29/33 Put Credit Spread. $3.00 credit or more. May go down to $2.90. Risk $110. Reward $290-300. POP around 70% for total strategy. Stop loss at GDX $29.00 Must exit before expiry on 1/31. Hold maybe a week. Exit at 50% profit, gap fills, or your risk tolerance. For those looking to hold stock instead of options, I would consider this a good entry for 3-6 month horizon (~10%+ return in my estimate). About Me Thank you for liking, commenting, throwing up a chart, following, or viewing. I am not a financial advisor. My comments and reviews are based on what I do with my personal accounts. I am transitioning to my new website www.moneypatterns.com and have updated my name previously jbird7839. Same guy - new name. :) Website will be ready for launch mid-January 2020. Thank you for your patience while I try to juggle everything and maintain the same standards. Disclosure - I am long BTCUSD, GBTC. Short term GDX Bullish, SPXS Bullish
AMEX:GDXLong
by MoneyPatterns
THE WEEK AHEAD: GDX, EWZ, EEMEARNINGS: You can literally count the number of announcements next week on one had, and they aren't in options liquid underlyings. EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS: GLD (36/12) SLV (30/19) GDX (30/25) TLT (29/11) GDXJ (28/29) EWZ (25/26) First Expiry in Which At-The-Money Short Straddle Pays Greater than 10% of Share Price: GLD: January '21 SLV: July GDX: March TLT: January '22 GDXJ: May EWZ: June Pictured here is an EWZ short strangle in the June expiry paying 1.43 (.71 at 50% max) with break evens wide of one standard deviation for that expiry and delta/theta of .05/1.16. Of shorter duration, the GDX March 20th 26/33 short strangle is paying .78 (.39 at 50% max; not very compelling) with the shorts camped out around the 18's; the 29 short straddle, 3.00 (.75 at 25% max). BROAD MARKET: EEM (24/16) IWM (11/16) QQQ (10/16) SPY (3/13) First Expiry in Which At-The-Money Short Straddle Pays Greater than 10% of Share Price: EEM: September IWM: August QQQ: September SPY: September The EEM September 18th 39/51 short strangle is paying 1.48 at the mid (.74 at 50% max). As before, I'm somewhat reluctant to go that far out in time to get paid, but have been putting on some longer-dated setups and managing them somewhat short of 50% max as I wait for shorter duration expiries to be more productive. FUTURES: /NG (43/48) /GC (36/11) /SI (30/25) /6C (28/6) /6B (25/8) Natural gas remains frisky due to seasonality, but I was hoping for more of a seasonal bounce to pull on the short end of the stick; Mother Nature hasn't cooperated on that end of things, unfortunately.
AMEX:EWZ
by NaughtyPines
GDX - Bullish EntryI AM WAITING FOR FILL ON THIS ENTRY Chart Details Bull Flag with bullish breakout. RSI bullish breakout Weekly trend just turned bullish. Gaps to fill above. Good entry at lower gap fill around $28.70 Entry Options Waiting for fill - 1/31 Expiration - 27/31 Put Credit Spread. Take $220 Credit. Max loss $180. Breakeven GDX at $28.80 About Me Thank you for liking, commenting, throwing up a chart, following, or viewing. I am not a financial advisor. My comments and reviews are based on what I do with my personal accounts. I am transitioning to my new website www.moneypatterns.com and will be updating my username here. Same guy - new name. :) Website will be ready for launch mid-January 2020. Thank you for your patience while I try to juggle everything and maintain the same standards. Disclosure - I am long BTCUSD, GBTC.
AMEX:GDXLong
by MoneyPatterns
The 2020 GDX OUTLOOK>>YIELDS|STOCKS|FED Policy& GOLD>>(Part 2/4)Short Analysis on GDX/Gold in 3 bullet points; Series on Commodities and the 2020 outlook - 21st of December 19' Before I get into the analysis, wishing you all Happy holidays! Here's the simpler version of the chart: 1. Few key takeaways: Despite that the current resistance at ~31 is holding , the breakout in GDX is eminent . The question is of the timing . From part 1/4 analysis on yields(Ref #5) it seems that yields are looking somewhat bullish. Of course, this is based on the assumption that "Not QE" will continue and eventually QE-4 will be announced . Nevertheless, this means that equities will continue to be bullish, even in sectors such as materials (Ref #6). If we get another series of rate cuts, GDX could breakout as early as Q2 of 2020. For further discussion on QE and monetary policy, visit part (1/4) on Treasury yields: 2. Recently there has been somewhat of a small bounce in PMI's . This was expected as the global monetary policy stance of CB's took a dovish turn in 2019, and the easing environment affects the real economy with a lag . Taking this into consideration, $GOLD may continue the horizontal path that it is currently on. This bounce in the macro data may be very dependent on the outcome of the trade negotiations , which hopefully we will find more about in January. 3. Not expecting gold to make new highs in the first half of 2020 . As the election cycle unfolds, there should be more volatility depending on the election circumstances. It's still very early, but it doesn't look good for the Democrats, in which case a breakout in both GDX and GOLD may be postponed . It's all labelled on the chart. To sum up, based on more accommodating monetary policy, the bottom line in GDX should hold above 27$. The horizontal range (27-31.25) should sustain before we get a breakout triggered by either the election cycle or potential economic shocks . This is a perfect iron condor trade setup . Materials as a sector has been very under-weighted and hasn't performed well, compared to the cyclicals . As the global economic slowdown continues, it seems that there isn't any downside in holding gold as a stock market hedge . Either way, balance sheet expansion favors all assets, especially substitutes for the dollar- gold. Tried my best to keep it short and simple, this it for GDX and GOLD. -Step_ahead_ofthemarket- ________________________________________________________________________________________ >>I do not share my ideas for the likes or the views. This channel is only dedicated to well informed research and other noteworthy and interesting market stories.>> However, if you'd like to support me and get informed in the greatest of details, every thumbs up and follow is greatly appreciated! References & Disclosure: 1. FED rates Super-cycle 1980's- 2. Dollar/Yuan breakdown, trade progress and tariffs: 3. Previous Gold chart: 4. XAUXAG, Gold aginst Silver ratio: 5. Treasuries and QE: 6. XLB Sector, US materials: Disclosure: This is just an opinion, you decide what to do with your own money. For any further references or use of my content- contact me through any of my social media channels.
AMEX:GDXLong
by step_ahead_ofthemarket
7
Gold Miners Setting Up for a Great 2020!My followers and readers know my fascination and excitement about Gold and Silver. Being well versed in economic history, one cannot avoid Gold. Human history is cycles of hard money and soft money, and come 2021, we will be in the 50th year of this soft/fiat money cycle. Interestingly enough, Neil Howe and William Strauss in their book “The Fourth Turning”, predict that there will be a historical cycle which will be ending between the years 2020-2025. On this blog, and with my work on Gold, I have mentioned how it is a confidence crisis asset. There are 3 reasons why Gold will be going higher in the very near future (can read in link below). Gold rises when people lose confidence in government, banks and the fiat money. You can see a lot of this occurring now. Trump impeachments and passing government spending bills to avoid shutdowns, piling up the debt. The Federal Reserve doing repo which is over the tune of 300 billion a day and Jim Bianco saying this will just increase in size. Central banks racing to the bottom by cutting interest rates to devalue their currencies. The macroenvironment is there for Gold to shine. Just a reminder that Gold and the US Dollar can move up together due to being safe havens. I have outlined why I expect the US Dollar to move higher, and how this will cause the problems in the world to exacerbate. Also, remember that Gold priced against other major currencies (the Pound, Canadian Dollar, Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar, the Yen, the Yuan, and the Euro is very close) has already broken out into all time new highs in 2019. This is a sign regarding where these fiat currencies will be going. With central banks likely to continue their easing and stimulus, calling it something else other than QE to avoid a confidence crisis, real rates (nominal rates and inflation) will be negative yielding. Another reason to hold Gold. However Gold does well in both inflationary and deflationary environments, and really boils down to it being a confidence crisis asset. Billionaire Ray Dalio and Paul Tudor Jones have recently spoken about Gold and how one should own it. Dalio’s words on Gold and his “paradigm shift” environment may very well have lead to large institutions and hedge funds to increase their positions in Gold. These larger funds will be playing Gold in 3 ways: buying physical bullion, buying the GLD ETF, and buying positions in Gold royalty and streaming companies, which is one of the best business models invented. Let’s get to the chart of note, and perhaps the chart of 2020. The fundamental reasons for Gold are there as described above. The chart of Gold also has given us a nice signal and we are awaiting for a higher low for Gold, which could occur as early as January if the Fed does cut rates again. Currently, the market believes there will be no rate cuts until Fall 2020, but this can be tested and would impact Gold once more cuts become priced in. GLD is the ETF for the Gold Miners. Our market structure analysis shows us a very exciting market. On the weekly chart, Gold has had a downtrend with lower highs and lower lows, and then we began to base and consolidate. This consolidation has occurred for 7 years and the resistance level has been tested 4 times in these 7 years. This is a very important level to watch. As you learn in my course, all markets only move in 3 ways, and we are very likely to be breaking out into an uptrend to validate this claim. From the break I expect higher lows and higher highs. For those dubious about this pattern, take a look at the Gold weekly chart which had this same pattern. We are still awaiting the first swing on the weekly after the break and run up to a new flip zone level: Forecasting a great 2020 for the precious metals, and I think it is worth considering positioning yourself for this now.
AMEX:GDXLong
by Uncharted-FX
GDX - Update - Current PatternI AM NOT ACTIVE IN THIS POSITION. WAITING ON ENTRY. GDX failed to breakout yesterday. Most likely tied to continued Fed Repo liquidity keeping SPY artificially inflated (see SPX chart link below for news). Current Daily pattern shown in last chart was extended. Weekly view shown on this chart best shows pattern. Still in a bull flag formation. Pattern ends around end of February. RSI trend breakout failure shows trend is going down. Next Weekly and Daily trends and both bullish flip. Once this occurs we are in good position with both Daily and Weekly to confirm bullish entry. I will watch the pattern and update if anything occurs by pattern end. If anyone would like an update, let me know via chat. Thank you for liking, commenting, throwing up a chart, following, or viewing. I am not a financial advisor. My comments and reviews are based on what I do with my personal accounts. Disclosure - I am long BTCUSD, GBTC
AMEX:GDX
by MoneyPatterns