GDX
GDX - Metals Trading | Elliott Wave Structures I Q2 2019*If you like this idea please support it with a like so I can publish more. Thanks!
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GDX - Elliott Wave Outlook
Bullish Swings - Patterns:
ABC swing in Intermediate (A) (green
Simple Correction in Intermediate (B) (green)
Ending Diagonal in Intermediate (C) (green)
Bearish Swings - Patterns
Sharp Bearish Impulse in Intermediate (A) (light blue)
Simple Correction in Intermediate (B) (light blue)
Ending Diagonal in Intermediate (C) (light blue)
Bullish Harmonic Pattern
Next expected swing:
Bullish leg in an attempt to reenter the Channel.
Structure change:
A breach on the down-side in an impulsive manner could lead towards a down-trend confirmation for Precious Metals.
Elliott Wave View: More Weakness in GDXElliott Wave view calls the decline in Gold Miners ETF (GDX) from March 27, 2019 high ($23.40) as an impulse structure. In the chart below, wave 2 of that impulse ended at $22.93. Down from there, wave 3 ended at $20.67 and wave 4 ended at $21.43. The miners still need to break below wave 3 at $20.67 to validate the view and avoid a double correction. The internal of wave 3 subdivides as an impulse Elliott Wave structure of lesser degree. Wave ((i)) of 3 ended at $21.89 and wave ((ii)) of 3 ended at $22.29. Down from there, wave ((iii)) of 3 ended at $20.71, wave ((iv)) of 3 ended at $20.97, and wave ((v)) of 3 ended at $20.67.
Wave 4 bounce unfolded as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Wave ((a)) ended at $21.19, wave ((b)) ended at $20.76, and wave ((c)) of 4 ended at $21.43. Near term, while bounce stays below $21.43, and more importantly below $22.93, expect the miners to extend lower. Potential target to the downside for wave 5 is $19.6 – $20, which is where wave 1 = wave 5.
GDX -Waiting for a buy setupWe are getting closer and closer to an important buying opportunity in gold miners.
Though yesterday we almost tagged the 200 SMA and bounced I still don't see that buying opportunity what i like to see at the gold miners bottom.
At the beginning of today's trading we broke above yesterday's high which is usually a buy signal but after a few hours of trading we gave back all the gains and closed in the red.
I think we are quite close to the bottom in days - 4-5 days only - but these last few days can be extremely scary as we print the cycle lows.
First of all I dont see the volume spike what usually occurs at these intermediate bottoms:
The other thing that we stiill have a gap between 20.5 and 20.8 which pulling down price like a magnet:
Today was the 5th day since we broke below an important level at 21.41 and usually these breakdowns lasting for 7-8 trading days:
Today was day 5 of the breakdown.
So I would wait with the buying till next week in the miners as we might have 3-4 red days ahead in the upcomong trading sessions.
gdx broadening?$nugt $dust $gdx $gdxj $jnug $jdst $gdxj
Potential for more pain for miners before a powerful run up
AIG's Pre GFC Bubble vs. Gold. Interesting similarity.Not that this is necessarily meaningful, but I find the characteristics of these assets rather strikingly similar. While I certainly would not trade off this alone, it kind of cements my view that Gold is potentially due to for a huge selloff here, which is a very contrarian take in today's market environment.
The charts read extremely similarly...
peak exuberance hits then bursts to a low that is half way down the increase since the start of the bubble. For AIG, this was the dotcom bubble, and for Gold, it was the commodities exuberance from 2000-2011.
After initial burst, market stabilizes and the asset recovers, but is a shell of what it was during the bubble era. It rises, bouncing off a new neckline back and forth over the next 7-8 years with smaller waves in each bounce.
At the end of 8 years, the narrowing bounces hit the neckline, and sell off likey in tandem with some variety of crisis).
The crisis breaks the neckline, and the bear market resumes for the asset, forcing technical traders to realize that the previous 7-8 years were a very long bear flag bouncing off a neckline.
And for whatever it's worth, I'm not saying this is a high probability scenario that Gold breaks the neckline, and I certainly don't think it's going to zero. But I think there is a much higher risk of a big selloff in gold than the market realizes.
careful miners$gdx $nugt $dust $gdxj $jdst $jnug
bearish gart (xabcd) I'm bullish on gold long term but I don't like this. CAREFUL NOW
Gold Breaks Through Support As PredictedGold breaks through strong support region, pushed down by positive macro news flow as predicted in my previous post. This completes the descending triangle pattern, was a reversal
The support region marked could be changed based on more news flow, will be updated regularly.
1.) More positive earnings surprises will likely follow
2.) Positive trade news is more likely than negative trade news
3.) No Brexit fears currently to support Gold prices
Check out my blog gdxdaily.com to see how I determine my investment thesis!
Encana Corporation: Stup*d CHEAP!!!Consistent growth, profitable, SUPER cheap relative to broad valuations! A rising oil price over the coming years will lead to earnings estimate increases!
GDX Triangle, Downside Preferred~Haven't touched stocks or ETFs for a while and now I decide to get back to my favorable Gold stock analysis.
We can easily spot that flag on 4H or Daily chart of GDX, normally with previous bullish price action, gold has slightly more chances on breaking the top side of the triangle.
But!! When I zoomed out to weekly, it tells me a different story. GDX was unable to break the resistance, and I'm thinking that we are on a beginning of a small bear. And I'll post the screenshot below.
I'll keep this post as long as I can and I may consider to enter a trade once there's a breakout on the triangle.
GOLD: Near term top in place, target $1,240With high conviction, I believe that Gold has more downside from here.
GDX Gold Miners First Take Profit Reached, Still Long Short TermThis is a continued trade based on my previous post. This was posted on my blog yesterday night
We have a big week ahead of us with potential updates on several important political event, along with some important economic data being released throughout the week. The news that we should keep our eyes on are updates on the trade deal, and vote outcomes of the Brexit extension set to be voted on Wednesday. US and China are in what seems like the final stretch of signing a trade deal that could help boost the world economy, however we can’t discount the multiple occasions where US trade reps admitted that there are still issues which need to be resolved before a deal can be made. As long as investors are still in the dark, markets will likely trade in a range as the speculation continues.
Wednesday is looking like a big day in terms of catalysts that could drive the market in one direction, at least in the very short term. We have the decision on the Brexit extension, as well as CPI numbers coming out in the US. These indicators and events could help Gold break out of its recently tight range and make a strong push in one direction. As previously mentioned in my daily posts, Gold has been consolidating at the bottom end of its descending triangle, meaning it’s found support and more likely to breakout to the upside than downside. As of writing this, Gold is up 0.4% overnight so far and I believe it’ll push up to at least the downward trendline.
The US dollar is still relatively flat, and looks to be consolidating as well near the top end of the ascending triangle. My current view is still that it’ll likely trend down after some more sideways trading, however my thesis depends on the price action this week so stay tuned for my daily updates.
Yields are starting to slip as investors wait for more catalysts, with CPI numbers and the Fed minutes being the most important ones this week.
Gold miners will likely continue its short-term trend upwards given the bullish sign from Gold. While I am bullish on miners in the short term, I will be actively taking profits as it hits the previous resistances marked on the chart. My medium term view is still unclear and depends on further macro development and more concrete directional news flow. I will also be watching the price action throughout the week to gauge sentiment that might be helpful in my predictions.
Have a great trading week everyone!
Update GOLD: Im not interested unless we can reach $1,260 Ideally, a 1 to 1 ratio with wave A & C would be needed at the very least in order for me to get involved!
Golds main driver, real yields are set to CRASH!!!Real yields are the main driver of precious metals. Currently, the Fed is transitioning to a dovish stance while inflation is expected to remain above 2% over the coming 6 months, this is extremely positive for Gold.
GDX Not Done YetGold falls as US dollar rises, accompanied by an across the curve rise in yields. Today’s macro news was relatively light with GDP data coming in slightly lower at 2.2% vs 2.4% expected, and initial jobless claims 211K vs 225K expected. There was a new piece of trade news indicating that China is willing to give the US more access to its domestic cloud-computing industry.
The market is currently looking for more directional signals, whether it be from trade news or economic data. The yield curve remains inverted when you consider the 3 months and 10 year, however that does not give a clear sell signal as of yet. The initial sell-off due to the inversion was quickly bought up, indicating that there’s still a lot of bullish momentum. A recent JPM analyst showed that even though the 3 and 10 inversion preceded all the recessions, it wasn’t until months later that the market turned negative. In fact, the market performs has historically performed well right after an inversion. What I believe is most likely is that the SPX will trade in a fairly large range until a string of positive or negative news can push it into a longer trend. Range is between $263 and $285, it seems like a large range but when considering the amount of volatility we’ve had over the last year, it’s not unlikely that we may get a 5%-6% correction, especially since the SPX has been trading at the top of its range over the last 6 months. If the correction does come, I believe it might cause some investors to think the same 2018 sell-off is happening, and pile into gold as a safe haven.
Yield Curve Forecast:
Yields will likely remain flat and trade within the current range, unless a string of positive economic news is released. The 10 yr is likely to trade within the 2.35%-2.45% range. This will help support gold prices in the near future.
US Dollar Forecast:
The US dollar has recently consolidated and has finally pushed upwards towards its resistance at 12275 (US dollar index). It’s currently trading in an ascending triangle pattern and could be stopped again at that key resistance. If that’s the case, then I expect the US dollar to fall to the sub 12100 levels. This will help push gold prices up further in the near term.
Gold Miners Forecast:
I believe gold miners still have more room to run for several reasons, most are mentioned above:
1.) The probability of the US dollar going on a major bull run is slim.
2.) Yields should continue to be pressured downwards/staying in this low range
3.) Uncertain backdrop of global growth won’t cause a major sell off in safe haven metals such as gold
I’ve accumulated 10% of a full position in $NUGT today at $20.47 at that first support, which it proceeded to break through in the afternoon. Looking to add 30% of full position at $19.05 and then another 30% at $18.
Update Gold: Bear flag broke, target $1,240 We are completing the corrective Wave C to complete a triangle for Wave B. Upside target from there is $1,542.
$jnug $nugt $dust $gdxj Gold miners threaten Breakout$jnug $nugt $dust $gdxj Gold miners threaten Breakout
Short Term Bullish On Gold MinersGold miners have seen decoupled correlation with gold prices over the last couple trading sessions; while showing more correlation with broad equity market movements. SP:SPX just broke a key resistance level with heavy volume, meaning bullish moment in the short term. I believe this will help push AMEX:GDX upwards in the short term towards it's recent peak.
GDX experienced some profit taking after the 7% surge yesterday due to the Fed leaving rates unchanged and having a more dovish tone. However, despite the selling, GDX managed to pull back into the green, indicating new buyers are coming in.
Gold prices should remain supported enough to avoid negatively impacting gold miner stocks. Yields are still in a heavy downward momentum as investors are piling into bonds because of conflicting news regarding the economy. US dollar price action is showing an ascending triangle, therefore indicating that it's still bearish in the short term unless we see a breakout above resistance with strong volume.
Positive Economic Catalyst
Feds are leaving rates unchanged and derivatives market is pricing in a roughly 50% chance of a rate decrease by 2020.
Given that low rates support the attractiveness of gold, gold miners should have a higher probability of increasing as well.
Negative Economic Catalyst
Once again Feds are reiterating a slow down in the global markets that could affect the US economy, which is in a good state right not, but not impenetrable from external shocks.
Still a lot of uncertainty over China trade deal. When will it be signed? What will the details be? How long will the tariffs be kept after a deal is signed?
If we do get a sell off due to market fears, this should help lift gold prices.
***Caveats to this analysis:
1.) The resistance at ~22.95 is too strong and not enough buying power to push past it. In this case it's very likely that a new trend will develop in the absence of any further macro developments
2.) Broad equity markets could sell off sooner than expected and cause gold miners to sell off as well. However as mentioned above, if markets sell off rapidly and fear kicks in, gold prices should rise due to its safe haven nature, which supports gold miners.
Gold Price Clearly Defined and Price TargetsThis last chart, a Monthly price chart, illustrating the Pennant/Flag formation in Gold should be the clearest example we can provide that Gold will soon break out to the upside and rally extensively higher if our research and analysis are correct. The momentum that has built up over the past 2+ years, as well as the global demand for Gold by central banks and by investors as a hedging instrument, could prompt Gold and Silver to rally at least 50~60% in this first upside breakout wave – resulting in $1900 gold prices. Silver could rally to well above $18~19 in a similar move and the number our researchers believe may become the upside target in Silver is $21.
THE WEEK AHEAD: HAND SIT ON PREMIUM SELLINGAlthough VIX finished the week above the low volatility environment zone (<15) at 16.48, not much is enticing here from a premium selling standpoint at first glance. Earnings announcements are now down to a trickle, with the next quarter's announcements coming into range in the May cycle, militating in favor of putting on earnings-related volatility contraction plays closer to announcement since implied will in all likelihood expand running into them.
ASHR (50/29), GDXJ (44/27), GDX (35/24), TLT (36/10), XLB (33/19) round out the top five exchange-traded funds sorted by rank; EWZ (12/38), XOP (26/32), OIH (27/32), ASHR (50/29), and USO (14/28) when sorted by 30-day implied, all below the >50/35 metrics I like to see out of these to put plays on, although I will continue to sell a bit of XOP premium here, since it's 30-day implied is nearly twice that of SPY's at the moment: the May 17th 30 short straddle's paying 2.99 (.75 at 25% max), nearly 10% of the Friday close share price of 30.06.
On the majors end of the stick: SPY (28/16), QQQ (23/20), DIA (22/17), and IWM (19/21) -- all at the low end of their 52-week volatility ranges.
