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Jnug to gold Well I havnt done gold for a while now but it appears to me that a nice setup to go long is presenting itself. This ICL has been stretched but that just makes me more confident that I have a safe Jnug play here. I am not about to try to guess what kind of wave count we are in. However, If we have started our move down into the larger C wave then this move up could look like what I drew. However, It could also be the beginning of the end of the B wave which would take us higher than I drew. I will be just fine with a move back up to the 1300 range before reassessing the pattern. Jnug will do well. but I will be watching its movement along with gold to get a feel for how powerful this move will be. Jnug chart
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by SalN
6
THE WEEK AHEAD: MU EARNINGS; EWZ, GDX, USOAlthough both FDX and ORCL announce earnings tomorrow (Monday) after market close, the underlying with the implied volatility metrics I generally look for in a volatility contraction play are present in MU, which announces Thursday after market close. With a rank of 82 and a 30-day of 60%, the 70% probability of profit 39/52.5 20-delta short strangle is paying 1.66 at the mid-price. Since it's been beaten down a bit recently, I could see skewing that setup a bit to the bullish side, and or capping off call side risk via a Jade Lizard (the October 19th 39/49/50 would do the trick -- it's paying 1.13 at the mid with no upside risk above 37.87). As far as non-earnings are concerned, implied volatility is present where it's been for a bit -- in EWZ (rank 99/implied 55) (the Brazilian exchange-traded fund), PBR (88/72) (Brazilian petro), CRON (76/124) (cannabis), GDX (66/30) (gold miners), and USO (58/27) (oil). Naturally, there's also TSLA (69/54), but with earnings in 52, you might as well wait for the full-on, earnings related volatility expansion/contraction ... .
NASDAQ:MU
by NaughtyPines
4
THE WEEK AHEAD: AVGO EARNINGS; EWZ, GDX, XLooking at what's left of the trading week post-Labor Day ... . AVGO (announcing earnings on Thursday after market close) is the only fairly liquid underlying that interests me for an earnings-related volatility contraction play (rank 57/30-day 37). The 63% probability of profit Sept 21st 200/205/235/240 iron condor pictured here is preliminarily going for 1.65 with a theta of 5.17 and a net delta of .67 with wide bid/ask showing in the off hours. Unfortunately, those 5-wides aren't available in the October monthly at the moment, so be mindful of the fact that you may experience difficulty or have to adjust on roll out if you have to since there aren't any 205's or 235's in the October yet. EWZ is still in a state of high anxiety with a 52-week rank in the 90's and the 30-day above 40%. The 72% probability of profit October 19th 28/38 short strangle camped out around the 20 delta is still paying over a buck (1.28), which is nice in a sub-$35 underlying. GDX (rank 44/30-day 26): Gold and silver have had the bejesus beaten out of them, so it's no surprise that the implied is relatively high here. Given the beat-down: October 19th 19 short straddle, 1.37 credit, 18.21 delta (bullish assumption). Alternatively, October 19th 19 short put (synthetic covered call), .87 credit, 59.74 delta. Lastly: another underlying that's gotten a smack-down -- X (earnings announced 31 days ago). The October 19th 27/33 neutral assumption short strangle is paying 1.06, but I could also see going plain Jane 30-delta short put (bullish assumption) -- the October 19th 28's paying .83; going 70 delta synthetic covered call -- the October 19th 32's paying 2.94; or going skewed short straddle -- the 40 delta October 19th 32 short straddle's paying 3.67, with the strategy selected matching the strength of your assumption ... .
NASDAQ:AVGO
by NaughtyPines
XAUUSD, GOLD, ABX, GDX, PAASAttempting to put more pieces of the puzzle together, considering my ideas on the miners recently published, from what I have seen over the years, B / X waves or alike (as potentially marked on the chart with a black line) usually have a subsequent opposite move in price at the end of such a wave. Therefore, the move in gold from 2016 low would have ended with a subsequent fall crashing through the lows, perfect example being the wave Jun-Sep 2012. The fact that the price is struggling to fall lower on numerous occasions since the 2016 advance, in addition to the most recent print on the weekly having a wick and green candle, leads me to believe that at least the previous highs are able to be breached. Then, there may be a fall lower, but that is another analysis when more price info is available. Summing up, evidence suggests that a bottom (or soon to be) of this down move is in, and now a move higher is in progress. Whether it is impulsive or not, I do not know. Therefore, this move up could possibly tie in with the simple analysis I have most recently put forward for the miners.
TVC:GOLDLong
by Generalmonkus
1
ABX, GDX, PAASSame as my recent ABX, GDX chart. PAAS appears to be playing along nicely with a sideways consolidation with classic text book decreasing volume, as well as other indicators looking encouraging, so would expect another pump higher regardless of wave count (either impulsive or corrective). HOWEVER, I have also seen breakdowns from these forming triangles, which I didn't expect, so although this provides more evidence for higher price in the future, it is still hard to tell.
P
by Generalmonkus
ABX, GDXAppears to me that for years there was a sideways consolidation, which bottomed in 2016. Then a strong move up, therefor the following questions: 1. Is this a new bull market and we have had W1 and are now (ending?) W2 at the 76 fib retrace level? 2. If not, have we had a strong upward A, now in B, yet to come strong upward C to break A highs? 3. An X wave of some sorts with lower prices to follow? I don't know all the rules of EW in my head so happy for comments, however, if this is just an X wave, then can price really go back to less than a dollar, which might be the case if this is an X wave??
A
by Generalmonkus
GDX POTENTIALLY TO SET BULLISH GARTLEYIn the weekly chart the movement of the GDX last month continues to decline out of the sideways channel and the triangle pattern is bearish. Although there is a rebound after touching the support at 18.55, bearish pressure is clear as long as the index value is still moving in the formed downtrend channel, or the index value is unable to move up above 22.93 as the previous swing high. A downtred push has the potential to set Bullish Gartley pattern if the GDX value touches to the next support in the 16.62 area, meaning if the pattern has been fulfilled then the last point of the pattern has the potential to be a reversal zone, a failed pattern is formed if the price turns up and exceeds 25.71.
AMEX:GDX
by yanuarmanalif
OPENING: GDX MARCH/SEPT 18/20 UPWARD PUT DIAGONAL... for a .04/contract credit. Max Profit on Setup: $4/contract Max Loss on Setup: $196/contract (width of the spread minus credit received) Break Even on Setup: 19.96 Delta: 27.37 Theta: .43 Notes: Taking a small bullish shot on gold weakness here with a net credit, calendarized short put vertical. Naturally, I'm not collecting much credit here on fill, but I'll be looking to roll the short put aspect over time to collect additional credit, and look to manage it for a take profit that's at least one-third the width of the spread.
AMEX:GDXLong
by NaughtyPines
2
We never finished the commodity crash of 2014, we just paused itSo many thought we bottomed out in Gold. But what if Gold still has a LOT further to go? If you just look at the chart, it's essentially a classic bubble. Yet the drop from the bubble's top was not that much compared to the rise... that's not how this works. Note the very discernable head and shoulders pattern that just broke, where we now see gold falling violently. I hear the arguments that there are record shorts in Gold right now, and that's normally a positive indicator for a rally. But I'm not convinced this is going to be enough right now, I think those who are net short tend to "know" some more fundamental stuff than many of the rest of us do. This is deflation people.
COMEX:GC1!
by GTStockmaster
2
Silver. Short Opportunity. Target 12-13.66Silver market was undermined with a notorious Flash Crash occurred last summer. The chart structure was spoiled but at the end of the day if we have enough patience to wait until dust settles we could see the clear picture again. I spotted for you both the blue downtrend and the yellow triangle pattern in the wave X on the chart. It looks like we can gain from the last drop down to the previous low at the 13.65 or even lower to the downside of the downtrend to the area of 12 handle. The RSI indicator can't raise its head above the waterline beyond the 50 level and it favors the short. The invalidation level is set at the finish of the wave "e" of X at the 17.70 level. The minimum risk/reward then is equal to 2 and is healthily asymmetric.
TVC:SILVERShort
by aibek
2
USDOLLAR KEY Reversal Day on BLOOD RED MOON MERCURY RETROGRADEDONT Forget MARS ALIGNMENT FAVORS WAR. The US 2Q GDP came in at 4.1% with a revision to the 1Q (they are still revising that number). The GDP is the quarter change... annualized. Taking the 2 quarters (2.2% and 4.1%) and dividing by 2 gets 3.15%. The 4 quarter average is 2.85%. (2.8%, 2.3%, 2.2% and 4.1%) The initial knee jerk reaction in the dollar is a little lower. The USDJPY fell to a low of 110.95. That is still above the low for the day at 110.92. The price is below the 100 hour MA at 111.113. The price today has been waffling above and below that MA line today. We trade at 111.08 currently. Move above the MA and perhaps the sellers turn around and buy. Stay below keeps the sellers more in charge. The EURUSD moved up and back down. The high reached 1.1639. That was just below the 61.8% of the move up from last weeks trading range. Yesterday, the price moved below the 100 and 200 hour MA and has remained below those MAs since (blue and green lines). The initial reaction was dollar lower (expecting 4.8% perhaps), but "the market" overall is stymied trying to figure what to do next.
TVC:DXYLong
by gann1000