GDX
GDX... Launched!The Gold miners ETF had a clear launch over the last two weeks, amidst the build up of the global events in Europe.
The Weekly chart has a sustained double breakout of a short term trendline, and the weekly 55EMA. The technicals (MACD and RPM) are very supportive, crossing upwards and into bullish territory.
The Daily chart shows the past two weeks developments, nothing short of being impressive and decisive. An immediate term resistance is seen, but am optimistic that the Gold miners have launched from the base low, at long last.
As previously mentioned... Gold prices have since moved significantly to above 1900, and equites are on the rise.
This are supportive of the GDX. Currently, a slightly stronger USD is disregarded and off set by the previous two.
GDX has since moved up 10% and is slated for much for upside, way above 40 IMHO. Projections in a later following post...
Time for the Juniors to Shine AgainHere we have an extremely similar setup to late 2015, right before the junior miners went on an epic tear. Note the divergence in the dynamic RSI oscillator, and how similar the action now is to 2015. The ratio also just broke out against the S&P.
Are you loaded up for this run??
$GDXAs paper money inflates and loses value gold prices rise.
CHART LEGEND:
white dashed lines = bull/bear takeovers
blue lines = call targets
yellow lines = put targets
red line = danger zone
orange lines = trend lines
green lines = safe zone
any other lines add will be discussed with the ticker
AMEX:GDX
GDX LONG, MASSIVE MONTHLY BULL FLAG = Target $58.40This is a MASSIVE Monthly BULL FLAG (Blue). After breaking down this massive trend channel GDX has recovered and is now breaking back into the huge UPTREND Price channel while MACD is remaining above ZERO.
I realize the month is not over yet but when you are struggling to find places to put your money when the stock market is retracing this would be my next trade. Also with the Gold chart looking better each day and that GLD Trade I posted going so well this would be the place to add to that exposure with more upside potential.
Long at OPEN tomorrow.
Target = height of the flag pole putting us at $58.40
GDX about to break out?It has been many fake outs, but yet again, the GDX is attempting to break out, one that starts with a nice long bullish marubozu type of candle on both the weekly and daily chart.
The weekly chart had a gap and run marubozu, with MACD turning upwards but not yet in bullish territory, nor clear of the 55EMA.
The daily chart had a decent long bullish candle that is supported by the technical indicators.
What needs to happen over the following week is a proper breakout and sustaining above resistance turned support levels.
GDX - gold miners on the brink of a massive breakoutGDX is testing this downtrend line which has held price lower since May 2021... With recent news on the Russian invasion of Ukraine pushing up the price of Gold, gold bulls are licking their lips for a breakout. Further news on this event could be the catalyst for a blast off. Watch closely for a close and break above this significant resistance which could send gold miners much higher from here
MASSIVE gains to be had in resource producers next 10+ years!!!Here you can see the ratio of XAU (an index of 30 precious metal mining companies) to the S&P 500 compared to the yield on the US 10 year treasury (orange line). As you can see, we have been in a falling rate environment ever since Volcker jacked up rates in the early 80s and put a floor under the value of the Dollar. XAU/SPX has followed the treasury yields down with strong correlation.
Currently, treasury yields have no where to go but up, and the reversal has already started as you can see by the latest action. XAU/SPX has been consolidating since it bottomed in 2015, building energy for a massive breakout that will dwarf the last precious metals bull market (2000-2011). With rate hikes around the corner, weakening economic data, and suffocating levels of global debt, I know which bucket I would rather put my money and patience in.
GDX Lame Duck ?This week, the GDX did a lame effort to test the 55EMA, if you could even call that a test. Hence, the 55EMA failure was pretty much a lame effort too. This downward consolidation is growing lame and old, but it does appear to continue perhaps for a bit more as I do not yet see strength in the accumulation... having said that, when it comes, it is likely to be rather overwhelming.
For now, the same zone is pushed forward as a Buy Zone or Break Zone.
This is like fishing... all is lame until the big bagger comes, when it really comes, it comes with a hard fight!
Stay safe!
GDXJ The LONG caseWe are still at the early stages of a long term bull market
LONG now between 50 and 44 it's a good call long term and still get 200% and counting.
A drop in gold and the miners is still possible. Falling below 43 opens the doors below. Then a retest off the blue line makes sense.
LONG between 36 and 30.
Now if it falls further below it, be ready to empty your wallets and pick up at bargain price. It will rebound because we are in a long term bull market. These dips should be heavily bought. If it falls below 30 we are in luck, but short term pain.
The 200 weekly MA will be around 40
Weekly and daily MACD & RSI will be low.
Currently trading below 200 daily MA
GL & happy trading
GDX possible bottoming out... or?Over the last couple of weeks/months, perhaps even since Aug 2020, GDX had been a tad challenging but also very intriguing.
Firstly, the number of fake outs by GDX is numerous over 2021.
Secondly, it is followed by failures for lower lows.
Third, an opportunity appears to be forming... it is almost time.
The weekly chart on the left failed the 55EMA yet again, and returned to close near the range low, on a solid candlestick. Technicals are bearish, as is price action.
The daily chart demonstrates how quick a breakdown it can have, but also appears to have bounced off a long term steady support. The candlesticks show a classic example of bearish outcome, and even a possible technical bounce in the coming week.
Technicals however are skewed slightly towards bearish.
Overall assessment is that we have a chance of GDX bottoming out, but also at risk of a breakdown, possibly.
GDX Fake Out burns badIn the last post on GDX, it was mentioned:
"Oops... Gapped down later last week.
Again, more downside, watch for breaking of the range into the Buy Zone, and more importantly IF the support holds (white line)."
For most of the week, I looked like a fool... as GDX closed the gap, tested a minor support and then spiked a long candle above the daily 55EMA.
I have to be honest, I did relook and asked myself IF I missed something, misread or was biased.
And then comes Monday, and by midday of trading, the previous gap down is reopened. Together with re-entry of the consolidation zone (as expected), and a repeated failure of the daily 55EMA, this story now signals an exit on the other side of the consolidation zone.
Candlesticks (weekly and daily) all appear bearish, and not even needing to mention the technical indicators.
Notwithstanding, I am looking for a slight higher low from the 15 Dec low, in the Buy Zone marked, over the current week.
Have to keep reminding myself to be patient. When it happens, it will be very obvious.
Meanwhile, I am hanging on to my knickers! LMAO...
1/23/22 GDXVanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX)
Sector: Miscellaneous (Investment Trusts/Mutual Funds)
Market Capitalization: $ --
Current Price: $31.65
Breakout price: $32.90
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $32.00-$29.25
Price Target: $38.80-$39.30
Estimated Duration to Target: 224-230d
Contract of Interest: $GDX 9/16/22 32c
Trade price as of publish date: $3.15/contract
Gold to S&P 500 Ratio Reversal Imminent!The chart says it all. "Don't fight the Fed" works both ways. They are currently wrapping up the biggest QE, have multiple rate hikes planned for the year, and have even talked about reducing their balance sheet, which is QE in REVERSE!!!
The over-valued stock market will falter, and the Fed will have to choose between rescuing the stock market or the value of the Dollar.
Either scenario is bullish for gold. Expect gold to start it's next leg higher later this year.
Good luck!
GDX Found a bottom?Range low at $28.90 was defended by buyers. Looks as if we have found a bottom for now. If it continues with some momentum the stock could see the range highs at $34.91. Would need to break past range high to confirm shift in market structure. Not in a position at the moment as I wait to see which route GDX takes. Bullish longer term on gold and precious metals.
I'll enter on the break and retest of $34.91
Or, I'll enter short if we get a clear break of $28.90.
GDX: Inverted hand and shouldersGold usually performs the last month of the year, entering a strong seasonal phase. Gold miners tends to anticipate gold's move.
GDX is a Gold miners ETF .
The price is currently reaching a resistance level. Should we be bearish?
Not necessarily.
If you look at the chart you can see an inverse head and shoulders , also called a "head and shoulders bottom".
This pattern is similar to the standard head and shoulders pattern, but inverted.
Investors typically enter into a long position when the price rises above the resistance of the neckline , which is currently between 33 and 33.64.
As for the target, you measure the distance between the bottom of the head and the neckline of the pattern and use that same distance to project how far price may move in the direction of the breakout (see green arrow). The target I have is about 37.74.
The pattern is only confirmed when the neckline is broken. If so, don't expect the price to reach its 37 target immediately. I have placed all the resistance lines on the chart.
Trade safe!