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GDXJ

OPENING: GDXJ AUGUST 21ST 40/41/60 REVERSE JADE LIZARD... for a 1.06/contract credit. Metrics: Max Profit: $106/contract Max Loss: Undefined Break Even: No Put Side Risk/61.06 Delta/Theta: -14.82/2.72 Notes: High rank/implied at 41/59. I don't do these very often, but think downside risk is greater than upside, particularly due to call side skew (i.e., both shorts are set up at the 20 delta, but the put side is closer in price relative where the underlying is trading than the call side). The basic notion behind the setup: total credit received exceeds the max loss metric of the short put vertical. Since short put vertical side is a one-wide, it has a standalone max loss metric of 1.00. The credit received exceeds that by .06, so even if GDXJ blows through 40, I'll still make money/not lose money if I do nothing, although I can certainly roll down the short call side to attempt to get something out of the play if it comes to that. A defined risk counterpart of the same play would be something like the August 21st 41/42/55/60, put on for 1.00 or greater.
AMEX:GDXJ
by NaughtyPines
2
THE WEEK AHEAD: SNAP, TWTR VOL CONTRACTION PLAYS; GDXJEARNINGS: Bunch of options liquid underlyings announcing earnings this week: IBM (27/36/<10%), Monday, After Market Close SNAP (43/79/18.1%): Tuesday, After Market Close MSFT (29/38/<10%): Wednesday, After Market Close TWTR (44/69/15.8%): Thursday, Before Market Open INTC (24/39/<10%): Thursday, After Market Close AMZN (70/55/12.5%) (Thursday, After Market Close) and TSLA (48/109/25.4%) (Wednesday, After Market Close) also announce, but options aren't the most liquid here, even though it's tempting to play all that juice in TSLA, with 30-day at 109% and the August 21st at-the-money short straddle paying a 25.4% of the stock price (which has gone parabolic). From a buck banging standpoint, SNAP and TWTR look to be the potentially most productive for pure volatility contraction plays. Pictured here is an August 21st 20/29 directionally neutral short strangle, which was paying 1.39 as of Friday close. For those of a defined risk bent, consider something akin to the 18/21/28/31, which was paying slightly greater than one-third the width of the wings at 1.10 or a similar setup. The TWTR August 21st 31/41 was paying 2.06 with a one-third-the-wing-width setup preliminarily being something like the 29/32/40/43, paying 1.21. Naturally, strikes may have to be adjusted, depending how the underlyings move running into earnings. EXCHANGE TRADED FUNDS ORDERED BY RANK AND SCREENED FOR 30-DAY >35% AND AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE PRICE >10% OF STOCK PRICE: XLE (28/44/10.3%) GDXJ (23/55/12.0%) EWZ (17/44/10.3%) XOP (15/56/10.2%) Relative to the past few weeks, volatility has dried up here quite a bit. The August monthly has 33 days left in it, so part of the "not paying" part has to do with duration. My tendency here would be to hold off, waiting until September duration (61 days) comes into range; it's still a little bit lengthy if you want to stick to stuff in that 45 day give-or-take wheelhouse. BROAD MARKET: Only IWM (33/37/8.3%) currently has a 30-day in excess of 35%, and that ain't saying much, with the at-the-money short straddle paying less than 10% of the value of the underlying. IRA SHOPPING LIST/DIVIDEND YIELDERS: Only EWZ (17/44/10.3%) has a 30-day >35%, along with the August at-the-money short straddle paying >10% of the stock price metric. I've already got a small short put ladder stuck out there (See Post Below), but aren't very tempted to add with the implied being so low within the 52-week range -- in the 17% percentile.
NYSE:SNAP
by NaughtyPines
4
THE WEEK AHEAD: DAL, WFC, NFLX EARNINGS; XOP, GDXJ, EWZEARNINGS: A bunch of earnings next week, particularly in the financials sector: C (40/58/14.1%): Tuesday before market open. DAL (50/95/23.0%): Tuesday before market open. JPM (38/49/12.1%): Tuesday before market open. WFC (58/63/15.4%): Tuesday before market open. GS (31/48/11.7%): Wednesday before market open. EBAY (71/56/13.4%): Wednesday before market open. IBM (47/43/10.0%): Wednesday before market open. BAC (36/52/13.1%): Thursday before market open. JNJ (29/28/7.2%): Thursday before market open. MS (35/51/12.3%): Thursday before market open. NFLX (50/60/14.5%): Thursday before market open. From the standpoint of what the August at-the-money short straddle is paying, you appear to get the most bang for your buck out of DAL (23.0%), followed by WFC (15.4%) and NFLX (14.5%). Because so many financials are announcing, I did consider a short premium play in the sector exchange-traded fund, XLF (29/41/10.4%), but the August at-the-money short straddle is paying just a smidge over 10% of the stock price relative to WFC (15.4%), C (14.1%), BAC (13.1%), JPM (12.1%), and GS (11.7%), so it's potentially more worthwhile to go single name for the volatility contraction here and to look to WFC to get the most buck banging. Unfortunately, strike granularity for WFC out in August remains pesky, with 2.5 wides where I'd want to set up my tent. For what it's worth, the 22.5/30 paid 1.42 as of Friday close, with the shorts camped out around the 23 delta. To me, airlines remain a bullish assumption play from these levels, and DAL is no exception. Consider out-of-the-money short put: the August 21st 20 delta 22 is paid 1.06 as of Friday close or another bullish assumption setup such as a Zebra, buying 2 x the 70 delta calls and selling the 50, potentially calendarizing the setup so that you have more time to reduce cost basis (e.g., buy 2 x December 18th 23 calls, sell the August 21st 27). Pictured here is a NFLX August 21st 455/465/680/690 iron condor with the shorts set up at the 16 delta as of Friday close. The market's showing wide on this setup, but look to get at least one-third the width of the widest wing (i.e., for a 10-wide, at least 3.33). You'll probably have to fiddle with the strikes given the amount of movement it's experiencing. EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS ORDERED BY RANK AND SCREENED FOR >35% 30-DAY IMPLIED: EWW (42/40/10.0%) GDXJ 40/55/13.73%) XLE (38/50/12.6%) GDX (34/41/11.0%) EWZ (29/48/12.1%) SMH (26/36/9.2%) XOP (25/61/15.8%) USO (7/53/15.8%) XOP (15.8%), GDXJ (13.73%), and EWZ (12.1%) have the most juice as a function of buying power ... . BROAD MARKET: Currently, no broad market with an August at-the-money short straddle paying greater than 10% of the stock price, but if you feel compelled to play, IWM (42/38/9.4%) is paying the most as a function of stock price. IRA DIVVY-GENERATORS SCREENED FOR AUGUST SHORT STRADDLE PAYING MORE THAN 10% OF STOCK PRICE: EWZ (29/48/12.1%) (Current Yield: 3.36%)
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NASDAQ:NFLX
by NaughtyPines
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