GDXJ
Will History Repeat Itself?Looks that way so far. (using log)
I copied the chart from 95 to 2011 and pasted it such that the bowls match up.
We might have 8000 gold by 2028.
AUY BreakoutI see a chance to go long here in AUY. I bought two days ago at the small arrow. I see it as a breakout today. I believe if you look at the mining sector everything is moving higher. Price is above the supporting moving averages and moving above the trend line. I also bought JNUG and added today.
GDXJ CorrectionThere is a correction on place. This is another scenario. GDXJ could fall minimum 42, and not lower than 38 range.
I´m comparing it to what happened last year.
Next leg to 1800Looks like we need to wait a day or so for the next leg up. New month on wed, or payrolls on Thursday may trigger it.
Gold Sets Fourth Highest Weekly CloseGold closed at $1,780.3/oz this week which is the fourth highest weekly closing price in history. The highest weekly closing price was $1,876/oz set in August 2011 and the second highest weekly close was $1,788/oz set in November of 2011. The third highest weekly close was $1,780.8/oz in October 2012 which is jut .50c above where gold closed this week.
If gold holds above $1,773/oz through the end of this month then June 2020 will mark the second highest monthly closing price in history, with the all-time monthly high being set back in August 2011 at $1,831/oz.
Outlook on gold remains bullish with the expectation that price makes a new all-time high this year above $1,923/oz which was set in September 2011.
Junior miners bullish signalAs the GDXJ/GDX ratio broke a major resistance, the probability for junior miners to outperform senior ones has strongly increased.
Anyway, it is a strong bullish signal for precious metals and the precious metals industry.
AMEX:GDX
AMEX:GDXJ
Gold (USD) daily- $1,800 and $1,923 target levels.Gold (USD) daily- $1,800 and $1,923 target levels.
Fosterville South Exploration - A +450% IPO in less than 30 daysWhat an IPO, what a run!
The tight share structure of the company (25% of the company is owned by the Management and founders) sent the stock to $4.6 today.
After the incredible Kirkland Lake story, the Fosterville region is more than ever keeping its reputation of creating lots of money.
What about value? Is this stock interesting from a fundamental standpoint? The answer is "I don't know", the lack of information on the company and especially on its structure does not yet, make it a sure bet for the long term.
GDXJ Next Move UpSince last Friday, I expect a new leg up in the gold stocks. Minimum target the top channel. If new gold leg up is stronger gold stocks could go higher, surpass the channel and then correct. I expect this leg to last at least three days or so. Then..... Following previews patterns, consolation for a few more weeks, but unless there is very sharp upleg...I don''t expect any strong correction in prices. Just consolidation without crossing the horizontal line in the short future (next two months). That also means that I don´t expect gold to go down from this levels. If there is a sharp leg up, it cant correct again to this level, but not less. This is my scenario in the near future. let see how unfolds.
Good luck. Just my opinion.
You don´t need my help to loose your money.
The case for GDXJ explosive summer move I will share my thoughts.
I´m fully invested in gold stocks. My chart indicators "tell" me.
- Daily charts have corrected and also is expected a rising in stocks next weeks. I expect that we finally reach and surpass the 48-50 level. About a 10% rise from today levels.
- A daily full stochastic is "telling me" that we are in course of a correction (that´s true, specially for the HUI index, which has been more dynamic than GDXJ so far.) But there is always a rebound which is beginning and will resume next week.
- Previous legs like that reached at least the previous top of even a 8% higher. Then the correction resumed some more time.
- If the trend is strong, this correction could not happen so soon.
So considering all this i would expect a one week two weeks uptrend following by a correction, but without going through current levels of prices.
In a more bullish case
- Weekly gold stocks relative to bullion are oversold as they where in previous bottoms. So it could be expected several weeks of rising. That is also true for HUI, XAU, GDX.
- Gold stocks are surging from a multiyear bottom, so they are eventually gaining strength.
- Many times before gold and gold stock made and extreme move just to get momentum to do the opposite. The rised fast before a sharp drop or viceversa. My believe is that´s the case right now, with March drop.
So, in all this "is true",and comparing last year with today, and if gold rises...rich is happening... then we could reach at the end of July or beginning of August a higher lever for GDXJ (lest say 65...or something). Well, that is a 50% increse from todays levels.
Anyway, remember. Nothing drops faster that a gold stock. Nothing. (I think Einstein missed this point in the General Relativity Theory)
GOLD BULLISHProviding update to my previous chart. Gold has now completed an inverse head and shoulders pattern and we're expecting the bullish momentum to continue.
GDX - IMPENDING DOOM!!We can see from this chart that price is ready to drop!
It has hit a key level of support and bounced off, it has tested this area several times before going higher each time.
The last time this level was broken it was a freefall to the bottom.. The next time the drop may be even greater!!
Get the sell stops in!
Golden Title MatchThe Spring season ends within a few weeks. Golden bulls and bears are about to go head to head for season champion.
Bulls will surely win next season, but this season is still close. Bears have a chance for a final round comeback.
Bulls will try to go for the kill this week with a break out of H(1) wedge, while bears try to extend the match to the larger H(4) wedge.
I think the match will not be decided until the end of the month.
OPENING: GDXJ JULY 17TH 39/55 SHORT STRANGLE... for a 2.18/contract credit.
Notes: 30-day at 62% with the at-the-money short straddle paying 16.3% of where the stock is trading. Adjusted the strikes slightly over my "Week Ahead" post ... .
You know the drill: (a) Take profit at 50% max; (b) Look to adjust on side approaching worthless.
BULLISH GOLDEN CROSS ON JUNIOR GOLD MINERS 15MINA BULLISH TECHNICAL DEVELOPMENT ON THE 15M JUNIOR GOLD MINERS GDXJ CHART
AMEX:GDXJ AMEX:JNUG BMV:JNUG CURRENCYCOM:JNUG CURRENCYCOM:JDST BVL:JNUG BMV:JDST CURRENCYCOM:JDST OANDA:XAUUSD OANDA:XAUCAD AMEX:GDX AMEX:BTG NYSE:AUY BCBA:AUY AMEX:SILV NASDAQ:PAAS AMEX:SGDJ AMEX:SILJ SWB:G2XJ
SOIURCE: www.investopedia.com
What is a Golden Cross?
The golden cross is a candlestick pattern that is a bullish signal in which a relatively short-term moving average crosses above a long-term moving average. The golden cross is a bullish breakout pattern formed from a crossover involving a security's short-term moving average (such as the 15-day moving average) breaking above its long-term moving average (such as the 50-day moving average) or resistance level. As long-term indicators carry more weight, the golden cross indicates a bull market on the horizon and is reinforced by high trading volumes.
www.investopedia.com():max_bytes(150000):strip_icc():format(webp)/GoldenCross-5c6592b646e0fb0001a91e29.png
KEY TAKEAWAYS
The golden cross is a technical chart pattern indicating the potential for a major rally.
The golden cross appears on a chart when a stock’s short-term moving average crosses above its long-term moving average.
The golden cross can be contrasted with a death cross indicating a bearish price movement.
Time to shine Ready to load up on the precious metals ? With the protests and riots ongoing now in US over the case of George Floyd, the stock market might take a breather possibly , see post here .
I have indicated 3 possible commodities to long; namely : Gold, Silver and Gold miners ETF.
You can see the charts are quite similar, so wait for price retracement to support area for Gold and Gold Miners ETF to long. Silver, wait for the next bullish candle to long.
A little rebound for the Gold Miners perhaps?Long term I'm definitely a gold bug but I have warned repeatedly about near term risk (which I don't think has completely resolved if I'm honest). The market is euphoric but channels are now becoming apparent and lines are being drawn. It's very possible we have a small bounce in miners with the upper channel limits identified as well as some other possible diagonal resistances. Be careful, but a strong opening Monday could mean a quick trade for some easy money can be made.
THE WEEK AHEAD: CHWY, LULU, PVH EARNINGS; GDXJ, XOP; VIXEARNINGS:
CHWY (71/85/17.34%)* announces Tuesday after the close.
The June 19th 41.5/60 17-delta short strangle pictured here pays 2.55 with break evens wide of the expected move. The similarly delta'd July 17th 39/65 gives you more room to be wrong, but doesn't pay that much more for the wait -- 2.48 at the mid.
LULU (36/57/10.01) and PVH (57/85/14.8) announce Thursday after market close, but have less than ideal volatility contraction play metrics.
SECTOR EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS SCREENED FOR >35% 30-DAY WITH JULY SHORT STRADDLE PRICE AS A FUNCTION OF SHARE PRICE:
EWW (37/38), <10%
GDXJ (36/53), 13.74%
GDX (33/43), 11.12%
TQQQ (30/77), 17.7%
XLE (30/39), <10%
EWZ (29/48), 11.75%
XOP (17/49), 12.4%
GDXJ looks to be the most productive from the premium selling standpoint, although we're getting on the short side of duration for July (40 days until expiration).
BROAD MARKET EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS WITH JULY SHORT STRADDLE PRICE AS A FUNCTION OF SHARE PRICE:
IWM (39/35), 8.66%
EFA (28/25), 5.50%
QQQ (22/25), 5.93%
SPY (21/24), 5.43%
IRA DIVIDEND EARNING EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS SCREENED FOR 30-DAY >35%:
EWZ (29/48)
VIX/VIX DERIVATIVES:
The /VX July contract finished the week at 27.21, with the VIX July 22nd 27/29 short call vertical paying .75 at the mid and the 27/30, nearly a buck at .95. Going out farther in time to take advantage of contangoized term structure here doesn't net you much additional juice, unfortunately. /VX August finished the week at 27.25 -- only .04 above August. September traded at 27.70, but the 27/29 pays only .65, probably due to the fact that the VIX of the VIX (i.e., VIX implied), slopes away, with nearer term implied being higher than those of longer duration.
In "derivative land," the VXX July 29/30 is paying .38, the 29/31, .71, and the 29/32, .99. UVXY is probably also paying 1/3rd the width for similar setups, although options pricing is showing wide in the off hours ... .
* -- The first metric is implied rank; the second, 30-day implied, and the third, the percentage of share price that the nearest monthly at-the-money short straddle is paying (i.e., the LULU June short straddle is paying 10.01% of share price, the PVH June short straddle, 14.8%).
