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GDXJ

GDXJ (+ Gold) "Bear Trap" LongGiven USD strength and the sustained pressure of ever-increasing US interest rates, gold has been taking it on the chin. However, we’re getting into buy levels/demand where it may be poised for a near-term recovery. Keep tabs on gold (spot, futures, GLD), but if you see signs of accumulation/trend reversal (use small timeframe charts), consider climbing aboard. FYI, gold futures (GC) have a yet-to-be-filled gap @ 1872.70, so we may drift lower in the immediate-term as the precious metal seeks that level. In the Jr. Miners space, we’re eyeing the 30.57-31.85 demand zone, which formed in November of '22. Protective stops should be placed below the lower bound of the buy zone. Targeting is a bit challenging, but GC futures should be able to rally to ~1910, if not higher. As everything is uncertain in trading, use your judgement. We always take mechanical profits en route to opposing zones, which are used for our target setting, and would highly recommend doing the same given the stress currently being reflected across markets. Just a thought/idea – take it . This is a very aggressive trade given recent price action - be careful! JHart @ LionHart Trading
AMEX:GDXJLong
by LionHart_Trading
The Day Ahead: IWM, QQQ, TQQQ, GDXJ, FXI, EWZIt's Friday and a Triple Witching to boot! Well, IV isn't great here pretty much across the board for us premium sellers. Nevertheless, if you must play (and some of us gotta), here's what's shakin' ... . Broad Market QQQ, .8 IVR, 17.8% 30-day IV, with the shortest duration in which the <16 delta is paying greater than 1% of the strike price: December 29th. IWM, .7 IVR, 16.8% 30-day, with the shortest duration in which the <16 delta is paying greater than 1% of the strike price: December 29th. SPY, .9 IVR, 12.9% 30-day, with the shortest duration in which the <16 delta is paying greater than 1%: (Ugh), March (there is no February monthly yet). Exchange-Traded Funds Ideally, you want to hit these when IVR >50 and IV is >35%, but IVR is at rock bottom, with most skimming the very low end of their 52-week ranges. Sometimes, you just have to settle for what the market gives you. TQQQ, 8.5 IVR; 52.6% 30-day. GDXJ, .6 IVR; 31.6% 30-day. FXI, 7.9 IVR; 29.4% 30-day. EWZ, 2.8 IVR; 26.7% 30-day. Fortunately, all of these are <$45/share, so you will be small in terms of buying power effect with the natural exception of the leveraged TQQQ, which your broker may require be cash secured on margin (which naturally makes it less sexy in that environment from an ROC %-age perspective). Stay small and don't get all of your powder wet.
AMEX:IWMLong
by NaughtyPines
The Day Ahead: Premium Selling in IWM, QQQ, FXI, GDXJ, SMHIt's Fryyyydayyyy ... (which is when I tend to do all my "stuff"). Well, unless you've been hiding under a rock (no judgment here), you'll know that premium-selling in broad market isn't very good here, with IWM IVR/IV at 12.3/19.7%, QQQ at 9.1/20.1%, and SPY at 6.8/14.4%. That sub-25 IVR is telling you that broad market IV is in the bottom quarter of its 52-week range which for premium-sellers is kind of drag. Your premium-selling options in this environment (at least from a premium selling perspective) are to (a) do nothing; (b) sell your go-to delta and duration for whatever the market is paying, knowing that you might get assigned at the strike or have a poo pile to manage toward expiry; or (c) go longer-dated to get paid something decent with the probability of profit (POP) and or probability of touch (POT) that you're used to. Since I'm trying to create cash flow here (at least in the retirement account), I generally opt for (c), since I'm not fond of cleaning up poo piles with a great deal of frequency and like high POP/low POT. With that goal in mind, I generally target the shortest duration <16 delta strike that is paying around 1% of the strike price in credit. Currently, the shortest duration <16 delta strike paying that in IWM is the December 15th 164 (14 delta, bid 1.65); in QQQ, the December 15th 325 (14 delta, bid 3.26); and in SPY, the Jan 19th 400 (16 delta, bid 4.24), so I'll look to add short put rungs in those durations or greater. Because broad market sucks so hard though, I'll also be venturing out into the exchange-traded fund space to see if I can scrounge up any premium there. Currently, FXI (IVR 11.3/30.8%), GDXJ (7.6/30.3%), and SMH (17.6/28.7%) are at the top of my screener when sorted for 30-day IV, but you can see that IV is also at the low end of the 52 week range in that space, too. The ideal is to sell in both high IVR/high IV with IVR >50/IV>35% for ETF's, but there is nothing currently in the space with those metrics, so -- as with broad market -- you're options are the same: (a) do nothing; (b) sell your go-to delta/duration with the chips falling where they may; or (c) sell longer duration with your go-to POP/POT. Here are the shortest duration <16 strikes paying around 1% of strike price in credit for these underlyings: FXI, Dec 15th 22.85, 13 delta, bid .29 (don't know what the odd ball strike is about). GDXJ, Nov 17th 29, 12 delta, bid .31. SMH, Nov 17th 130, 13 delta, bid 1.35. I would note that there is a highly options-liquid ETF with >50% IV, and it's TQQQ, with an IVR of 17.3 and a 30-day IV of (wait for it) ... 70.5%. It's a leveraged instrument, so I would exercise caution trading it with the expectation that, for example, the 16 delta (the 2 times expected move strike in non-leveraged stuff) is a "safe" strike to sell with limited assignment risk, a high probability of expiring worthless, and/or not being an in-the-money headache toward expiry. As long as you're familiar with all these "warts," it's probably okay to play small. That being said, it won't be particularly buying power efficient on margin; it looks like my broker's requiring that it be cash secured (most underlyings require 20% of the strike price or thereabouts in buying power), so the buying power requirement makes it "less sexy" in spite of its high IV. Lastly, I would be neglectful were I to not mention the single name space for premium-selling here, but my general order of preference in selling premium (particularly in the retirement account) is (a) broad market; (b) exchange-traded funds; and (c) single name (in that order). Here are the top 30-day IV, highly options liquid single name underlyings at the moment that are trading at >$20/share and with a 30-day>50%. There isn't a ton here and (as with everything else), IV is at the low end of its 52-week range (I mean 1.0? c'monnnn, you're killing me here, smalls): AFRM (Tech/Software)), IVR/IV 1.0/75.5% RIVN (Automaker/EV), 5.5/65.5% TSLA (Automaker/EV), 11.3/52.7%
AMEX:IWM
by NaughtyPines
Minefield ⛏️💥The VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF (ticker: GDXJ) has entered a certain minefield here. Our short-trade target zone has already been dealt with and the corresponding high of the turquoise wave (ii) was placed accordingly within said zone. We are now anticipating further impulsive sell-action in accordance with the general bearish trend. If the bulls want to start another comeback though, they should’nt be able to increase the price beyond our still active second sell zone (between $39.33 and $41.67).
AMEX:GDXJShort
by MarketIntel
GDX heading down... It has been more than 6 months since I looked at GDX proper. Yes, I might have missed the last Gold/GDX rally, but I think that short run is about over... Looking at the weekly chart for GDX, a decisive lowest close since March 2023 is representative of a end of a bull trend, if it is not already obvious enough. The near marubozu type down candle came after a quick dip and a lower high, to get a close near the lower low... which just prevails the downward momentum. Few other notes... 1. a trendline support breakdown this coming week would accentuate the downside bias; 2. the MACD and VolDiv have crossed down and looks determined to crossunder the zero line; 3. any further breakdown bring it into the previous consolidation range. And a break in into the range suggest an extrusion on the other (lower) side of the range; 4. Noted that the USD appear to be gaining strength and the equity markets are about ripe for a retracement. Furthermore, the Gold analysis point to a further slide in Gold prices. Taken together, these 3 critical pillars for GDX are impacted, whcih gives little for the bullish case on GDX. Down it goes... heads up!
AMEX:GDXShort
by Auguraltrader
The Week Ahead: ARKK, KRE, GDXJ; CFLT, COIN, DASH EarningsWith broad market implied volatility having crushed out mightily over the past couple of weeks, I'm left scrounging around in the exchange-traded fund and/or (ugh) single name space for premium. There aren't a lot of underlyings with ideal IVR/IV metrics to play, but there are a few things that still have decent IV in them, even if it isn't toward the top of its 52-week range. There isn't anything in the exchange-traded fund space as of Friday close with an IVR >50%, but there are a few with 30-day IV >35% (which is the combination of metrics I like to see). Here there are, ranked by 30-day with stuff <$20/share weekend weeded out: ARKK 41 KRE 41 KWEB 39 GDXJ 37 USO 36 XOP 35 Pictured here is a fairly plain Jane delta neutral short strangle in ARKK in the June expiry with the short legs camped out around the 16 delta, paying 1.00 at the mid price with break evens at 30 and 43. The KRE June 16th 37/48 short strangle (16 delta) is paying around 1.25. The KWEB June 16th 28 short straddle is paying around 1.95. (Going 16 delta short strangle didn't end up paying much; the 26/30.5 was paying .55). The GDXJ June 16th 35/46 short strangle (17 delta) is paying 1.04 at the mid. The USO June 16th 60.76 short strangle (17 delta) is paying 1.65 at the mid. The XOP June 16th 112/143 short strangle (17 delta) is paying 3.04 at the mid. Broad Market Ugh. Why even go here ... . Broad market exchange-traded funds, ranked by 30-day IV: IWM 21.3% QQQ 20.6% EFA 16.2% SPY 16.1% DIA 14.3% Bond Funds My only observation here is to note that TLT premium is better than SPY's (as is EMB's). EMB 20.9% TLT 17.0% HYG 9.5% AGG 7.4% And, of course, there are earnings ... . I've screened and ranked these by >50% 30-day IV, as well as for options liquidity and thrown out underlyings that are trading at <$20/share: COIN 111.2 (Thursday after market close) W 107 RUN 92.9 CFLT 80.9 (Wednesday after market close) PPL 73.4 (Thursday before market open) FOUR 72.0 DASH 70.2 (Thursday after market close) The drawbacks to W, RUN, and FOUR involve strike to strike granularity, which is why I haven't bothered to look up their announcement days and times. W and RUN have 1 1/2 wides; FOUR, has 5-wides. Not having 1-wides can not only make setting up delta neutral a pain; it can making rolling out a pain if you have to do that to manage the trade, so I generally avoid underlyings with weak strike granularity for earnings plays that are generally just made to take advantage of the ensuing volatility contraction. I would consequently lean toward plays in COIN, CFLT, PPL, and DASH for volatility contraction plays, looking to get into CFLT, Wednesday before market close (since it announces Wednesday after market close). PPL, Wednesday before market close (since it announces Thursday before market open). COIN, Thursday, before market close. DASH, Thursday, before market close. Preliminary Setups: CFLT May 19th 22.5 Short Straddle, 3.60 credit, 18.90/26.10 break evens PPL: May 19th 29 Short Straddle, 1.03 credit. (Well, that's ... weak sauce. It's possible that the platform is misreporting 30-day, so this will have to be checked during the NY session). COIN: May 19th 45/67 Short Strangle, 3.29 credit. (A smidge pesky, since I'd want to set up my put side tent somewhere between the 45 and the 40 strike, where there aren't any strikes at the moment.) DASH: May 19th 52/73 Short Strangle, 1.95 credit.
AMEX:ARKK
by NaughtyPines
2
Rolling Waves (up)The bear leg could have probably ended. Confirmation should come next week if it begins to move up sharply as I think. In short term (two weeks) back at 38$ And probably end of May back to 48$. Again GDXJ is on major support and this last week was a tipical shaking move before a large one. The sector is moving up, and up, but remenber always that corrects in a hard way, so trading is the best attitude to make money. I am long. Rolling waves (The naked and famous). www.youtube.com Salud para todos.
AMEX:GDXJ
by JAY_c5velm
2
What an incredible rally in GOLD from Support - what's next?This incredible rally in Gold won't really end until prices reach levels above $2250. My target is closer to $2400 - but we'll see how things play out. Overall, Gold moves in $350 price phases. From recent lows, the top of that $350 price phase is near $1985. I would suspect a moderate pause/pullback after reaching the $1985 level. The low of that pause/pullback will prompt another $350 upward price phase. If we assume the low of the pullback will be near $1900, then the upper target of the next upward price phase will be $2250+. Eventually, as Gold shifts into a parabolic phase, those $350 price phases will increase.. A. $481 B. $525 C. $566 D. $700 As the speculative phase in precious metals continues, we'll see varying expansion/contraction phases until the peak is reached after 2027~28. Hang tight, this is just getting started. Follow my research.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by BradMatheny
Gold Portfolio UpdateGOLD has reached my short-term target of $1,925.62 selling 70% of my accumulation averaging $1,679.25. Similarly, the VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) reached my short-term target selling 50% of my accumulation averaging $27.96 GOLD: 14.63% profit of 10% portfolio equity GDXJ: 44.83% profit of 5% portfolio equity I am keeping liquidity in Gold as my long-term outlook remains bullish and to hedge against the poor macroeconomic environment. The reason for the large profit-taking include: - Major resistance in both charts (GOLD & GDXJ) - Momentum indicator over-bought (GOLD & GDXJ) - US10Y in major resistance: -DXY in resistance and will rise once equities will stop rising Overall, trimming on gold because of great returns. My long-term outlook remains very bullish for gold and gold miners. I believe demand for gold will continue to rise in the long term because of its material and hedge against poor international economics (deglobalization, uncertainties, recession, slow growth,...) For personal recording
G
by ssavi
Gold could skyrocket higher in NovemberGold and Silver could move dramatically higher after the US Fed comments and the shift in how capital seeks safety. Precious metals have been consolidating downward for months. Now, it appears the Feds comments have shifted how traders/investors view precious metals. It is very likely this shift may prompt a very big upside price move. As traders suddenly realize the undervalued metals prices have not adjusted to the global risk factors associate with a US 5% FFR (creating global economic concerns), I believe precious metals may move sharply higher (very quickly). The Fed is on a mission and may prompt a massive global contraction as excesses and risks continue to elevate. Just like in 2004~08, precious metals drifted higher until the crisis event in 2008-09. Then, after a brief contraction, metals skyrocketed more than 85% higher over 2.5 years. We may be at the start of a 150% rally in gold (or more). Stay tuned. Follow my research
COMEX:GC1!Long
by BradMatheny