Jnug to Gold "final drop in bound"?I am expecting gold to move into its final drop and possibly bottom in February. Then we should get a very strong move up similar to the 2016 run. I do not see the start of the bull gold market. Just a large strong C wave up to above $1400.
And miners should also make a similar move as the 2016 run. GL
GDXJ
GDXJ: Daily, Weekly and Quarterly viewI'm long Jr. miners here, together with positions in oil and oil services, and gold, (and probably silver soon). I think we may get a weekly uptrend confirmation to trigger as a result of the jump towards daily targets that is likely to occur within this week.
The move forecasted by the weekly chart would put $GDXJ back at the quarterly time-frame mode, from where we could consider the possibility of prices surging like my quarterly chart show...very lofty targets indeed. I'm holding a 13% position in this stock as of now.
Best of luck if you take the trade.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
Long GDXJ (Alternative view from previous analysis)One week passed, GDXJ starting to form a bottoming signal (rising volume and bottom wick). With the equity market (SPY) so weak, gold may have the chance to breakout.
If GDXJ breaks above the triangle trend line, that will be a false breakdown. That we should expect a huge rally ~20-30% from current level.
The only risk is yield is about to explode, so if gold is negatively correlated to yield, this is unlikely to happen.
Trade plan: wait til the break above trendline to initiate long position. Otherwise, I am still short biased.
GDXJ: Jr. miners have bottomed - upside to shy of $70 possible$GDXJ is an exchange traded fund which lets investors gain exposure to a basket of gold and silver mining companies, which can be a very interesting vehicle to benefit from major moves in precious metals. In this case, we see that the daily chart is likely to start trending sharply up from here, with a chance of breaking above the long term resistance zone above, in which case, prices could surge close to $70 over time. We're long from today, entered a 9.5% position at $28.15, shortly after the market opened.
We may add to it on dips, if prices retrace back into today's range next week.
Best of luck if following me here.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
GDX to TEST below 2016 LOWS? USDCNH Devaluation GDX KillerAlthough gold futures finished fractionally higher on the day, it has closed lower on the week. This now marks the fourth consecutive week in which gold futures have closed lower and below the open on Monday. When we look at a weekly candlestick chart, we can see that even though gold closed, in essence, unchanged, it is a red colored candle indicating the close is below the open for the week.
Over the last eight weeks, gold has only closed higher on only one occasion. More significant is the fact that over the previous two months gold has lost almost $100 in value.
The last two months we have seen the U.S. dollar remain strong, and the U.S. equities markets continuing to hold firm and recover from the three-week selloff which began during the week of June 11. U.S. equities have gained value for the last five consecutive weeks when viewed through the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
This strong risk-on environment created from rising equities prices coupled with dollar strength and rising interest rates have made safe-haven assets maintain a defensive posture.
Dollar Index Closes Above 95
Although the dollar gained only fractionally today, on a weekly basis the index closed above 95 for the first time since July 2017 (on a daily chart the dollar closed at 95.11 on June 28). As of 4:30 PM Eastern standard time, the dollar index is up 0.05% and trading at 95.04.
The only event holding the dollar back this week was today’s jobs report which showed that in July the U.S. gained 157,000 jobs. This was below the analyst's estimates (MarketWatch forecast) which predicted that 195,000 jobs would be added in July.
The steady and growing U.S. economy continues to weigh on gold prices. As long as economic forecasts continue to reveal stability and growth, the U.S. dollar should remain firm and precious metals pricing will continue to trade under pressure.
Spot gold fared much better than gold futures today resulting in a gain of $5.90. Currently, spot gold is fixed at $1,213.10. On closer inspection, today’s gains were the direct result of traders bidding up the precious yellow metal accounting for a gain of $6.50, but fractional gains in the dollar index took away $0.60 of value.
On a technical basis, gold futures were able to hold above a critical support level which resides at $1,218. This level is a 0.618% retracement created from the lows ($1,124) gold traded to at the end of 2016 to the highs achieved at $1,369 this year. Below this level is a psychological support level of $1,200 per ounce, followed by a support level at $1,178 which is the 0.78% retracement level. Currently, we have major resistance at $1,240 per ounce.
Wishing you as always, good trading